{
  "author": "Arhan Canli",
  "claim_boundary": "This is a signal-validity proxy using DVOL and realized variance, not an executable option return, forward record, capacity study, admitted sleeve, or return promise.",
  "diagnostics": {
    "BTC": {
      "frac_days_vrp_positive": 0.7299,
      "mean_vrp_volpts": 0.044,
      "naive_always_short_sharpe": 2.4818,
      "naive_always_short_skew": -5.4874
    },
    "ETH": {
      "frac_days_vrp_positive": 0.6525,
      "mean_vrp_volpts": -0.0008,
      "naive_always_short_sharpe": 0.5309,
      "naive_always_short_skew": -10.6795
    }
  },
  "evidence_date": "2026-08-22",
  "family_key": "crypto_volatility_risk_premium",
  "identity": {
    "artifact_path": "artifacts/exp2/20260625T094710Z/exp2_metrics.json",
    "artifact_sha256": "f39839b1e05b33e718563984228ee4dba64e94bdbf10c1b174426c0bd880d3a4",
    "config_hash": "99596bbb5b6f8e38",
    "configuration": {
      "cost_bps": 10.0,
      "currencies": [
        "BTC",
        "ETH"
      ],
      "end": "2026-06-01",
      "k_cost": 0.02,
      "normalizer": "expanding_std_shift_1",
      "probe": "crypto_vrp_proxy",
      "signal": "dvol_minus_yang_zhang_168",
      "start": "2021-03-24",
      "warmup_days": 365
    },
    "hypothesis_key": "bd4688c240711a16",
    "ledger_source_path": "var/experiments.jsonl",
    "result": {
      "annualized_sharpe": -0.633,
      "artifact_era_dsr": 0.0,
      "artifact_era_global_trials": 84,
      "artifact_era_psr": 0.066,
      "clears_artifact_era_dsr_gate": false,
      "currencies": [
        "BTC",
        "ETH"
      ],
      "oos_days": 1492,
      "raw_kurtosis": 132.65,
      "skew": -9.517,
      "window": {
        "end": "2026-06-01",
        "start": "2021-03-24"
      }
    }
  },
  "implementation": {
    "is_deployable_option_pnl": false,
    "return_type": "variance_swap_signal_validity_proxy",
    "source_path": "scripts/exp2_crypto_vrp.py",
    "source_sha256": "12cc277a6c84a136dcd819d9297d4e117c52e4bfdfbba50601e15c279cb101b0"
  },
  "schema": "canli.alphac-crypto-vrp-family.v1",
  "source_provenance": {
    "report_path": "artifacts/exp2/20260625T094710Z/exp2_metrics.json",
    "report_sha256": "f39839b1e05b33e718563984228ee4dba64e94bdbf10c1b174426c0bd880d3a4"
  },
  "summary": {
    "admission_status": "FAIL_RESEARCH_ONLY",
    "artifact_era_dsr_gate_passes": 0,
    "broker_reconciled_forward_status": "NOT_ESTABLISHED",
    "capacity_status": "UNMEASURED_NO_OPTIONS_CAPACITY_SWEEP",
    "distinct_hypothesis_identities": 1,
    "options_surface_status": "UNAVAILABLE_HISTORICAL_SURFACE_PROXY_ONLY"
  },
  "unresolved_diversification": "PENDING \u2014 read from exp1 carry/momentum OOS curves once exp1 finishes"
}