{
  "schema": "canli.eia-petroleum-inventory-probe.v1",
  "preregistration": "docs/design/PREREG_EIA_PETROLEUM_INVENTORY.md",
  "hypotheses_spent": 1,
  "configuration": {
    "mechanism": "eia_first_release_petroleum_inventory_scarcity",
    "products": [
      "USO",
      "UGA"
    ],
    "seasonal_years": 5,
    "scale_weeks": 52,
    "score_clip": [
      -3.0,
      3.0
    ],
    "entry": "next_session_open_after_release",
    "hedge": "trailing_252_session_dbc_beta_clamped_-3_3",
    "costs": {
      "USO": 0.0006,
      "UGA": 0.001,
      "DBC": 0.0003
    },
    "oos_start": "2016-01-01"
  },
  "pbo": "not defined for a one-configuration probe; no selection surface exists",
  "data": {
    "source": "EIA dated WPSR archive Table 4 first-release CSV files",
    "discovered_releases": 783,
    "accepted_releases": 782,
    "rejected_releases": 1,
    "score_rows": 1564,
    "tradable_release_rows": 900,
    "schedule_rejections": {
      "not_both_products": 333,
      "beta_history": 0,
      "past_calendar": 0
    }
  },
  "metrics": {
    "observations": 2669,
    "net_sharpe": -0.5892034349114502,
    "newey_west_t": -1.844976942634086,
    "dsr": 7.374195622900468e-11,
    "psr": 0.02482129842667459,
    "n_trials_union_including_candidate": 228,
    "sr_trial_variance": 0.0008957471162984615,
    "net_sharpe_at_2x_costs": -0.997659435817854,
    "max_drawdown": -0.4105143659732944,
    "skew": -1.5165106928321932,
    "realized_dbc_beta": -0.013669372203866052,
    "turnover_ann": 52.30382406002614,
    "standalone_net_sharpe": {
      "USO": -0.46027312477813864,
      "UGA": -0.7425806749821852
    },
    "capacity": {
      "p05_usd_at_1bp_adv": 149.19439128870977,
      "median_usd_at_1bp_adv": 781.7687522336912,
      "p05_usd_at_5bp_adv": 745.9719564435487,
      "median_usd_at_5bp_adv": 3908.843761168456,
      "p05_usd_at_10bp_adv": 1491.9439128870974,
      "median_usd_at_10bp_adv": 7817.687522336912,
      "p05_usd_at_1pct_adv": 14919.439128870974,
      "median_usd_at_1pct_adv": 78176.87522336912
    }
  },
  "correlation": {
    "common_start": "2023-07-07",
    "common_end": "2026-06-01",
    "ordinary_by_sleeve": {
      "AlphaForge": -0.010795800525604226,
      "AlphaMax": -0.0025708335893531997,
      "AlphaTrend": 0.03225901275187299,
      "AlphaVintage": -0.014154726053463268
    },
    "average": 0.0011844131458630738,
    "max_pair": 0.03225901275187299,
    "stressed_by_sleeve": {
      "AlphaForge": 0.07900573721652522,
      "AlphaMax": -0.13591026125607392,
      "AlphaTrend": -0.3019400115174747,
      "AlphaVintage": -0.04350081538847962
    },
    "max_stressed": 0.07900573721652522
  },
  "book": {
    "common_days": 728,
    "base_sharpe": 1.223582316577314,
    "candidate_10pct_sharpe": 1.2367825863003334,
    "delta_sharpe": 0.013200269723019353,
    "mean_zero_delta_sharpe": -0.013891130387520434,
    "leave_one_year_out_delta": {
      "2023": -0.05400812261435206,
      "2024": 0.036709809889019285,
      "2025": 0.028555013262600237,
      "2026": 0.05202322804785153
    },
    "all_leave_one_year_out_positive": false
  },
  "gates": {
    "net_sharpe_at_least_0_40": false,
    "dsr_at_least_0_95": false,
    "newey_west_t_at_least_2": false,
    "net_sharpe_at_2x_costs_at_least_0_40": false,
    "absolute_dbc_beta_at_most_0_10": true,
    "average_correlation_at_most_0_15": true,
    "max_pair_correlation_at_most_0_35": true,
    "max_stressed_correlation_at_most_0_50": true,
    "book_delta_positive": true,
    "mean_zero_book_delta_positive": false,
    "all_leave_one_year_out_positive": false,
    "both_products_positive": false,
    "proxy_capacity_p05_at_least_5m": false
  },
  "verdict": "KILL",
  "admission_review": {
    "contract_schema": "canli.alphac-sleeve-admission-contract.v6",
    "contract_path": "config/sleeve_admission_contract.json",
    "contract_sha256": "5f628a44ae73ed9c412b225ac9dc56c4e59c1bc0645e2ebde251501e938b9932",
    "checks_required_for_technical_eligibility": 85,
    "preregistered_research_checks": 13,
    "preregistered_research_checks_passed": 5,
    "status": "RESEARCH_SUBSET_FAILED",
    "technically_eligible": false,
    "claim_boundary": "This historical ETF feasibility probe failed its preregistered research gates. Binding it to the current v6 contract does not retroactively change those gates or make it technically eligible."
  },
  "lineage": {
    "preregistration_sha256": "dc1f7dd8888a51c1b53fe3b04c4fd941d2027075e2b7150c72941736d740e66c",
    "events_sha256": "031cf4a3178dfffb84d13f12a0b8a4b417914ddbc885e314bbf4ff6347de0bbc",
    "first_release_manifest_sha256": "386577605c5bea567ce166efbf600419f79858ff20ed57a68b625bc1da4c9623",
    "input_data_manifest_sha256": "80e62a4db5a79055b8899660d71e8e30b474e4af3172ff8aa6238efe61bddddd",
    "runner_sha256": "7369f31b47adb04e401e85dd62f4c8acffb5e7c1fd768b7ed1beb54b4da8a00f",
    "admission_contract_sha256": "5f628a44ae73ed9c412b225ac9dc56c4e59c1bc0645e2ebde251501e938b9932"
  },
  "reproduction": {
    "command": "uv run python scripts/probe_eia_petroleum_inventory.py",
    "python": "3.12.13 (main, Jun  2 2026, 22:42:28) [Clang 22.1.3 ]",
    "numpy": "2.4.6",
    "pandas": "3.0.3",
    "pyproject_path": "pyproject.toml",
    "pyproject_sha256": "ddaf8b60999275f6d3fb93b3073f256d75d1383bfc8bab14263dc58645841006",
    "uv_lock_path": "uv.lock",
    "uv_lock_sha256": "5caca664242722a3a3112663d7a19b7b5000583e30ade3753e1b8ffdecfd6f06",
    "runner_path": "scripts/probe_eia_petroleum_inventory.py",
    "runner_sha256": "7369f31b47adb04e401e85dd62f4c8acffb5e7c1fd768b7ed1beb54b4da8a00f"
  }
}