{
  "schema": "canli.alphac-forward-evidence-contract.v6",
  "author": "Arhan Canli",
  "capital_kind": "PAPER_ONLY",
  "return_frequency": "CONSECUTIVE_PUBLISHED_UTC_DAILY_MARKS_NO_SYNTHETIC_FILL",
  "annualization_days": 365,
  "minimum_daily_returns_for_estimate": 252,
  "minimum_daily_returns_for_establishment": 756,
  "forward_sharpe_target": 1.5,
  "target_exceedance_probability_min": 0.95,
  "expected_max_drawdown_target": 0.11,
  "broker_reconciliation_max_age_hours": 36,
  "broker_state_lag_tolerance_hours": 1,
  "required_live_config_fingerprint": "sha256:fe82c4eeed742289bfcfee5d39856ee2bb8ca9cfe209bcc7e34abff98553706d",
  "required_continuity_schema": "canli.alphac-record-continuity.v1",
  "required_broker_reconciliation_schema": "canli.alphac-alpaca-broker-reconciliation.v1",
  "required_drawdown_model_schema": "canli.alphac-drawdown-live-estimator.v1",
  "required_current_book_drawdown_study_schema": "canli.alphac-current-book-drawdown-study.v1",
  "required_current_book_diversification_study_schema": "canli.alphac-current-book-diversification-study.v1",
  "required_drawdown_evidence_schema": "canli.alphac-forward-drawdown-evidence.v1",
  "required_transparency_schema": "glassbox.transparency_log/2",
  "required_transparency_payload_schema": "canli.alphac-track-record-daily-digest.v1",
  "required_crypto_position_attribution_schema": "canli.alphac-crypto-position-attribution.v1",
  "required_crypto_position_attribution_rollout_schema": "canli.alphac-crypto-position-attribution-rollout-verification.v1",
  "methodology_paper_public_path": "/research/forward-sharpe-evidence-standard",
  "rules": {
    "estimate_eligible": "At least 252 finite non-constant returns from consecutive published daily marks, plus every provenance gate passing.",
    "target_observed": "The annualized point Sharpe is at least 1.5; this is not statistical establishment.",
    "target_statistically_established": "At least 756 returns and PSR probability that the true annualized Sharpe exceeds 1.5 of at least 0.95, plus every provenance gate passing.",
    "drawdown": "Realized live maximum drawdown is always published. A simulation may be published only with p95, exact configuration mapping and explicit failed establishment dimensions. The older 14-sleeve daily study applies a 10% book-level volatility target and is not an estimate of the current four-sleeve fixed-weight composite. The zero-drift current-composition study maps the exact weights and strategic overlay and may be compared with the 11% objective, but its post-2022 common window and omitted constituent instrument, execution-gap and ladder state mean neither expected value nor p95 establishes live expected drawdown.",
    "diversification": "The exact current-composition research study must publish average sleeve correlation, its synchronized block-bootstrap upper 95% bound, the maximum ordinary pair and its upper bound, the stressed design value, effective sleeve and diversification-ratio diagnostics, and fixed-to-cash marginal historical book-Sharpe deltas. Every threshold comes from the sleeve-admission contract. A positive average correlation fails the non-positive point gate even when described as near zero. Research-window evidence never establishes live-forward diversification and never retroactively adjudicates an existing sleeve.",
    "configuration_change": "A live-configuration fingerprint change starts a new evidence epoch; pre-change and post-change returns cannot be silently pooled.",
    "missing_marks": "Missing calendar dates are not filled with zero returns. The continuity audit is a separate mandatory gate.",
    "public_chain": "The current paper state must exactly equal the canonical payload disclosed in the signed transparency-chain head. Link continuity, every Ed25519 signature, every disclosed payload hash, and the prospective disclosure boundary must validate. Historical opaque commitments remain explicitly incomplete and are not reconstructed.",
    "crypto_position_attribution": "The latest locally simulated crypto paper cycle must be non-empty, persist complete order-book marks for every open position, independently reproduce each stored market value and unrealized P&L from quantity, mark, and entry price, and reconcile cash plus marked market value to account equity within the frozen tolerances. A flat cycle cannot vacuously certify the mark path. Entry-price fallback marks, non-finite values, non-positive prices, missing prospective fields, position-count mismatch, stale cycle coverage, position-arithmetic residual, or equity-reconciliation residual fail provenance closed. Historical rows are never backfilled.",
    "crypto_position_attribution_rollout": "A hash-bound deployment receipt and the frozen first later non-empty natural cycle must prove the mark-aware runtime operated on the sole-writer Frankfurt paper host without a forced cycle. Before deployment, missing receipt evidence is published deterministically and fails closed without querying Frankfurt. A successful first-cycle receipt is immutable for that exact deployment receipt."
  },
  "claim_boundary": "This contract freezes how forward evidence will be described before the record is mature. It does not guarantee a Sharpe ratio, convert paper trading into real capital, establish expected drawdown from realized history, or treat a non-equivalent simulation cell as a live-book risk estimate."
}