{ "schema": "glassbox.research/1", "title": "Canli Capital research: the full gauntlet", "honesty_note": "Every published number is read from a real engine artifact. Where a value does not exist in an artifact it is omitted, never invented. The forward Sharpe is the deflated 0.3-0.9 expectation, never the in-sample headline; killed factors carry their real negative net Sharpes.", "executive_summary": { "description": "The current ALPHAC flagship combines 4 live sleeves: AlphaForge, AlphaMax, AlphaTrend, AlphaVintage. Their economic inputs differ, but diversification is not treated as proof of alpha. No sleeve clears the multiple-testing gate in-sample. AlphaVintage remains visible as a paper-trading history but its calendar-correct research verdict is KILLED; it is not an admitted sleeve. The live record, including a genuine risk-off episode, is the evidence that matters next.", "deployed_sleeves_count": 4, "technically_admitted_sleeves_count": 0, "research_reclassified_killed": [ "AlphaVintage" ], "tested_factor_families_count": "35+", "honest_forward_sharpe_range": "0.3 to 0.9 (the +10% beta does NOT improve this \u2014 it adds bull upside + crash risk, not risk-adjusted quality; real chance of ~0 yr1)", "in_sample_sharpe": 1.78, "in_sample_grade": "C+", "honest_grade_note": "real but modest; no sleeve clears the multiple-testing deflation gate in-sample, so the only credible next evidence is a live record where the full book transacts through a risk-off episode" }, "methodology": { "point_in_time": { "summary": "Every bar is stamped to the moment it was knowable; a single PIT reader enforces it on every query, so a leak is something the data layer will not permit, not something we hope to avoid.", "survivorship_free": true, "point_in_time_enforced": true }, "purged_walk_forward": { "summary": "Anchored-expanding walk-forward with a purge + embargo between train and test, so no information leaks across the boundary. Weights on a forward day are a pure function of returns strictly before that day.", "scheme": "anchored-expanding, purged + embargoed" }, "deflated_sharpe": { "summary": "Every config that could have been measured counts toward the deflation denominator. The Deflated Sharpe Ratio (DSR) discounts the headline Sharpe by the expected maximum Sharpe of pure noise across the trial count. A clean result must clear DSR >= 0.95.", "dsr_gate_minimum": 0.95 }, "pbo": { "summary": "Probability of Backtest Overfitting via combinatorially-symmetric cross-validation (CSCV): the chance the in-sample best config is below-median out-of-sample. A clean result must hold PBO < 0.20.", "pbo_gate_maximum": 0.2 }, "pre_registration": { "summary": "The trial budget was committed to git before any sleeve touched the data lake; the commit hash is the timestamp of record. A tiny budget measured exactly once is the only honest route to a clean deflation grade.", "trial_budget_hard_ceiling": 9, "measure_once_protocol": "No re-runs, no re-windowing, no cadence search, no sign-flips, no subset search over sleeve combinations, no MVO, no static scheme in the deployable path. KILL = exclude, never re-tune.", "document_committed": true, "document_path": "docs/design/PRE_REGISTRATION.md" }, "reproducibility": { "summary": "The backtest is content-hashed and byte-reproducible. A golden-master test asserts every fill price, fee and funding payment from hand-written arithmetic to 1e-9 precision. The backtest itself is not timestamp-anchored; selected heads of the separate live track-record chain have OpenTimestamps proofs.", "claim": "content-hashed + byte-reproducible backtest", "not_claimed": "No blockchain timestamp claim for the backtest itself", "golden_master_test": "tests/integration/test_golden_master.py" } }, "trial_accounting": { "schema": "glassbox.trial-ledger/2", "claim_boundary": "This ledger proves what was measured and how selection N is counted. It does not prove that any identity is profitable, independent, or admissible.", "accounting_equation": "immutable execution records - window-only remeasurements - cross-profile duplicate identities = distinct union hypothesis identities", "immutable_execution_records": 301, "distinct_config_hashes": 301, "window_only_remeasurements": 72, "cross_profile_duplicate_identities": 0, "distinct_hypothesis_identities": 229, "selection_statistics": { "unit": "first_immutable_record_per_hypothesis", "n_hypotheses": 229, "sharpe_variance": 0.0009019255799292642, "audit_raw_record_sharpe_variance": 0.0007326666145874145, "interpretation": "Operational window remeasurements remain public but cannot alter selection N or selection V[SR]." }, "ledger_profiles": 8, "hypothesis_identity_budget": 400, "budget_remaining": 171, "budget_status": "PASS", "research_status": "ACTIVE_STAGED_PROSPECTIVE_BUDGET", "definitions": { "hypothesis_identity": "A distinct economic or parameter identity after removing only start and end measurement-window keys.", "immutable_execution_record": "One append-only, config-hash-unique measurement row. Rolling-window remeasurements remain records.", "window_only_remeasurement": "A later record whose config differs from an existing identity only in start or end. It remains public but does not inflate DSR selection N." }, "budget_review": { "authorization": "Explicit owner decision to fund the fourteen-sleeve programme, taken with the evidence cost on the table rather than inferred afterwards.", "authorized_by": "owner, 2026-08-21", "cost_of_this_decision": { "annualized_deflated_benchmark_after_154_trials": 1.3041, "annualized_deflated_benchmark_before": 1.2074, "applies_to": "every sleeve in the book, not only the new candidates. Deflation is a property of the search, and the search is the book's.", "evidence": "artifacts/analysis/trial_budget_cost/result.json", "increase": 0.0967, "the_honest_caveat": "This assumes the measured 6.5% hit rate holds for families that have never been tested. It is an assumption, not a measurement, and the atlas families are deliberately unlike the ones that produced that rate. If the true rate is half of it, ten sleeves cost twice the trials and the budget will bind before the target is reached. Reaching the ceiling without ten admissions is a RESULT, not a failure of the budget, and the book stays smaller.", "why_it_is_affordable": "The deflated benchmark grows with the LOGARITHM of the trial count, so 154 trials on top of 162 move it by roughly 0.10 annualized. Sample length is the far stronger lever, which is why v6 raising minimum_oos_observations from 252 to 756 matters more to admissibility than this budget does." }, "headroom": 158, "hypothesis_identities_at_review": 162, "new_budget": 320, "next_tripwire": "At 320 recorded hypothesis identities, registration pauses again and requires a fresh owner review. Any single family exceeding 40 identities also pauses for review, so the budget cannot be consumed by one line of enquiry that is not working.", "prior_budget": 160, "rationale": "Ten new sleeves at the measured 6.5% hit rate (3 survivors from 46 tested candidates) implies about 154 trials. The budget is set at 320 identities, which funds that with a small margin and stops well short of an open-ended search. It is a CEILING, not a plan: the campaign closes at whatever count the evidence stops justifying.", "status_token_note": "ACTIVE is the canonical token the trial tripwire recognises. The prospective nature of this budget is recorded here rather than encoded in the status, so no guard is left unable to read the state it governs.", "what_did_not_change": "A target still never creates a sleeve. Fourteen is reached only if ten or more new identities independently clear every admission gate in config/sleeve_admission_contract.json; otherwise the book remains smaller. The budget buys permission to look, not permission to admit." }, "ledger_scope_correction": { "authorized_budget_unchanged": 320, "budget_remaining": 146, "current_hypothesis_identities": 174, "new_experiments_run": 0, "prior_reported_hypothesis_identities": 162, "reason": "Canonical union discovery scanned only top-level var* profiles and omitted four durable experiment ledgers filed with legacy result artifacts. The ledgers are selection evidence and have been restored to N. Withdrawn archive_broken_prices ledgers remain excluded.", "recorded_at": "2026-08-22", "recovered_ledger_paths": [ "artifacts/exp1/20260625T075446Z/experiments.jsonl", "artifacts/exp4/20260625T103226Z/experiments.jsonl", "artifacts/exp4/smoke_20260625T102142Z/experiments.jsonl", "artifacts/grand_backtest/20260616T143620Z/experiments.jsonl" ], "recovered_legacy_hypothesis_identities": 12, "status": "CORRECTED" }, "summary_trial_debt_correction": { "already_reconciled_before_this_correction": 24, "authorized_budget_unchanged": 320, "budget_remaining": 92, "current_hypothesis_identities": 228, "evidence": "artifacts/audit/trial_debt_reconciliation.json", "new_experiments_run": 0, "newly_reconciled_in_this_correction": 54, "prior_reported_hypothesis_identities": 174, "reason": "Seven persisted historical studies reported named return configurations but bypassed the durable experiment ledger. The source-bound v2 reconciliation charges every measured parameter identity, including 32 AlphaMax robustness-grid configurations and AlphaTrend's post-hoc selector configurations; rounded summaries are never used to assert duplicate economic identity.", "recorded_at": "2026-08-22", "recovered_historical_hypothesis_identities": 54, "source_identity_counts": { "alphamax_construction": 8, "alphamax_hyst_live": 6, "alphamax_turnover": 8, "alphamax_weighting": 48, "alphatrend_arp": 3, "alphatrend_breadth": 4, "crypto_vrp_proxy": 1 }, "status": "CORRECTED" }, "profiles": [ { "profile": "20260625T075446Z", "source_path": "artifacts/exp1/20260625T075446Z/experiments.jsonl", "immutable_execution_records": 2, "distinct_config_hashes": 2, "hypothesis_identities": 2, "window_only_remeasurements": 0, "latest_recorded_at": "2026-06-25T07:54:46.297000+00:00" }, { "profile": "20260625T103226Z", "source_path": "artifacts/exp4/20260625T103226Z/experiments.jsonl", "immutable_execution_records": 1, "distinct_config_hashes": 1, "hypothesis_identities": 1, "window_only_remeasurements": 0, "latest_recorded_at": "2026-06-25T10:32:26.542000+00:00" }, { "profile": "smoke_20260625T102142Z", "source_path": "artifacts/exp4/smoke_20260625T102142Z/experiments.jsonl", "immutable_execution_records": 1, "distinct_config_hashes": 1, "hypothesis_identities": 1, "window_only_remeasurements": 0, "latest_recorded_at": "2026-06-25T10:21:42.062000+00:00" }, { "profile": "20260616T143620Z", "source_path": "artifacts/grand_backtest/20260616T143620Z/experiments.jsonl", "immutable_execution_records": 8, "distinct_config_hashes": 8, "hypothesis_identities": 8, "window_only_remeasurements": 0, "latest_recorded_at": "2026-06-16T14:36:20.756000+00:00" }, { "profile": "var", "source_path": "var/experiments.jsonl", "immutable_execution_records": 227, "distinct_config_hashes": 227, "hypothesis_identities": 191, "window_only_remeasurements": 36, "latest_recorded_at": "2026-08-23T22:29:16.391000+00:00" }, { "profile": "var_fut_real", "source_path": "var_fut_real/experiments.jsonl", "immutable_execution_records": 1, "distinct_config_hashes": 1, "hypothesis_identities": 1, "window_only_remeasurements": 0, "latest_recorded_at": "2026-06-28T20:13:53.117000+00:00" }, { "profile": "var_mf", "source_path": "var_mf/experiments.jsonl", "immutable_execution_records": 49, "distinct_config_hashes": 49, "hypothesis_identities": 13, "window_only_remeasurements": 36, "latest_recorded_at": "2026-08-24T05:30:24.624000+00:00" }, { "profile": "var_sharadar", "source_path": "var_sharadar/experiments.jsonl", "immutable_execution_records": 12, "distinct_config_hashes": 12, "hypothesis_identities": 12, "window_only_remeasurements": 0, "latest_recorded_at": "2026-07-11T19:41:42.107000+00:00" } ], "recent_hypothesis_identities": [ { "hypothesis_key": "da5f5f47f99f9bd2", "config_hash": "50d9e8b059fee773", "label": "carry_fund_21", "ledger_profile": "var", "first_recorded_at": "2026-08-23T22:29:16.391000+00:00", "observations": 1574, "annualized_sharpe_observed": 0.968898 }, { "hypothesis_key": "7843716d6bab8d5b", "config_hash": "09f8fee4e13a004d", "label": "alphatrend_breadth", "ledger_profile": "var", "first_recorded_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.077000+00:00", "observations": 5161, "annualized_sharpe_observed": 0.204 }, { "hypothesis_key": "0b91174c6e27a1f3", "config_hash": "ea967116409691ab", "label": "alphatrend_breadth", "ledger_profile": "var", "first_recorded_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.076000+00:00", "observations": 5161, "annualized_sharpe_observed": 0.217 }, { "hypothesis_key": "c8d703989f9e36ca", "config_hash": "dc78c2c55edfc678", "label": "alphatrend_breadth", "ledger_profile": "var", "first_recorded_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.075000+00:00", "observations": 5161, "annualized_sharpe_observed": 0.128 }, { "hypothesis_key": "e60ed7b6904004af", "config_hash": "356929813b18d8db", "label": "alphatrend_breadth", "ledger_profile": "var", "first_recorded_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.074000+00:00", "observations": 5161, "annualized_sharpe_observed": 0.289 }, { "hypothesis_key": "0c5ddfb3d5b52ca5", "config_hash": "18165c784f0332de", "label": "alphatrend_arp", "ledger_profile": "var", "first_recorded_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.073000+00:00", "observations": 5161, "annualized_sharpe_observed": 0.271 }, { "hypothesis_key": "f4d5aef87af5cc92", "config_hash": "7845a023b51f8f68", "label": "alphatrend_arp", "ledger_profile": "var", "first_recorded_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.072000+00:00", "observations": 5161, "annualized_sharpe_observed": 0.186 }, { "hypothesis_key": "084a8fc5292327ee", "config_hash": "8808d789acccaf3a", "label": "alphatrend_arp", "ledger_profile": "var", "first_recorded_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.071000+00:00", "observations": 5161, "annualized_sharpe_observed": 0.289 }, { "hypothesis_key": "69bb7543e8ff821a", "config_hash": "2e43cbf9baacfce4", "label": "alphamax_turnover", "ledger_profile": "var", "first_recorded_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.070000+00:00", "observations": 5356, "annualized_sharpe_observed": -0.184506 }, { "hypothesis_key": "4efe32b9ba20a8c8", "config_hash": "72a8345cfc18db7a", "label": "alphamax_turnover", "ledger_profile": "var", "first_recorded_at": "2026-08-17T00:00:00.069000+00:00", "observations": 5356, "annualized_sharpe_observed": -0.191819 } ], "policy_source_path": "config/trial_accounting.json", "trial_debt_reconciliation": { "source_path": "artifacts/audit/trial_debt_reconciliation.json", "source_sha256": "2aea898ff82658f46ca08b8ee71f3198010c0f4252c7799830aeeca436ec577b" }, "legacy_dsr_debt": { "status": "CODE_RESOLVED_HISTORICAL_CLAIMS_RETIRED", "historical_exception_paths": 12, "executable_debt_paths": 0, "resolved_code_paths": 12, "union_registration_paths": 7, "claim_boundary": "No executable raw-row DSR implementation remains. Historical summary-only DSR claims stay retired because their exact return series were not preserved; code repair does not rehabilitate those artifacts.", "source_path": "config/legacy_dsr_exceptions.json", "source_sha256": "f743d0ffa49c4890f12480982a6237cd2ec71f216dbad20d409cf31e2211726f", "restatement": { "source_path": "artifacts/audit/legacy_dsr_restatement.json", "source_sha256": "9348d033d7e4dde2e028c0063634b2ab44e637b082bb3b9b851220aba0fcfd80", "summary": { "historical_exception_families": 12, "restated_families": 5, "restated_variants": 33, "restated_variants_clearing_dsr_0_95": 0, "retired_families": 7 } } }, "generated_at": "2026-08-25T14:26:23.165346+00:00", "content_hash": "sha256:e5df07b652451c642b3fc1cac4848885dd78fd18d849c0195209437cc0c88312" }, "program_status": { "schema": "canli.alphac-program-status.v2", "status": "ACTIVE_FORWARD_EVIDENCE_IMMATURE", "claim_boundary": "This contract states the programme's governing targets, current paper record, execution provenance and evidence coverage. It does not establish that a target has been achieved, that paper returns are realizable with capital, or that any sleeve is statistically distinguishable from luck.", "owner": { "name": "Arhan Canli", "roles": [ "founder", "system architect", "researcher", "publication author" ], "person_public_path": "/founder" }, "objective": { "average_pairwise_correlation_objective": -0.03, "average_pairwise_correlation_objective_note": "An objective, not a gate. -0.03 is the average pairwise correlation at which fourteen sleeves of measured quality reach 2.5. Thresholds are gates and live in 'thresholds'; anything that is not enforced must not sit there wearing a gate's costume.", "backtest_to_forward_haircut": { "measured_on_this_book": "in-sample equal-risk ~1.04 against an honest forward of 0.3-0.9", "note": "The haircut IS the uncertainty. Until the forward record is long enough to speak, every in-sample figure should be read through it, and the range is this book's own published pair rather than a convention borrowed from elsewhere.", "range": [ 1.5, 3.0 ] }, "honest_forward_sharpe_target": 1.5, "implied_in_sample_target": { "at_1_5x_haircut": 2.25, "at_2_0x_haircut": 3.0, "at_3_0x_haircut": 4.5 }, "minimum_new_sleeves": 10, "portfolio_max_drawdown_statistic": "expected_maximum_drawdown", "portfolio_max_drawdown_target": 0.11, "portfolio_p95_max_drawdown_is_gated": false, "portfolio_p95_max_drawdown_must_be_published": true, "portfolio_sharpe_target": [ 2.25, 3.0 ], "portfolio_sharpe_target_unit": "IN-SAMPLE, being the band that an honest forward 1.5 implies at the 1.5x and 2.0x ends of this book's own measured haircut. The headline target is honest_forward_sharpe_target.", "superseded_in_sample_sharpe_target": [ 2.0, 2.5 ], "superseded_reason": "Stated in-sample with no haircut named, and unreachable as a forward result: a verified forward 2.0 at measured per-sleeve quality needs an average pairwise correlation of -0.062 against a PSD floor of -0.077. Withdrawn 2026-08-21 and replaced with an honest FORWARD target of 1.5, which is inside the floor at every plausible quality.", "target_total_sleeves": 14, "targets_are_admission_evidence": false, "what_reaching_it_requires": "Both halves, not either: an average pairwise correlation meaningfully BELOW zero, and per-sleeve quality above roughly 0.60. At today's measured 0.469 the forward target is reachable only at a correlation near -0.030 and only on the optimistic haircut.", "why_this_is_not_a_retreat": "The rarer thing was never the number. A forward Sharpe near 1.5 that is genuinely verifiable -- signed forward record, every killed candidate published in full, gates that provably bite, and the arithmetic showing where the gate falls short of the target printed on the same page as the target -- is harder to find than a 2.5 nobody can check." }, "achievement": { "forward_sharpe_target": 1.5, "forward_sharpe_status": "FAIL_CLOSED_PROVENANCE", "forward_sharpe_underlying_status": "IMMATURE_RECORD_TOO_SHORT", "expected_max_drawdown_target": 0.11, "expected_max_drawdown_status": "MODELED_CURRENT_COMPOSITION_WITHIN_OBJECTIVE_LIVE_EXPECTED_MAX_DRAWDOWN_NOT_ESTABLISHED", "target_sleeves": 14, "current_sleeves": 4, "new_sleeves_admitted_by_atlas": 0, "overall": "TARGETS_NOT_YET_ACHIEVED" }, "forward_record": { "capital_kind": "PAPER_ONLY", "go_live_date": "2026-08-07", "state_generated_at": "2026-08-25T14:25:33.975910+00:00", "live_days": 18, "first_mark": "2026-08-07", "last_mark": "2026-08-25", "normalized_starting_equity": 100000.0, "normalized_current_equity": 97752.64, "cumulative_return": -0.022473599999999982, "curve_points": 17, "curve_basis": "Normalized composite of constituent paper curves plus the disclosed overlay; not a direct broker account balance.", "honest_forward_sharpe_estimate": "0.3 to 0.9 (the +10% beta does NOT improve this \u2014 it adds bull upside + crash risk, not risk-adjusted quality; real chance of ~0 yr1)", "in_sample_sharpe": 1.78, "in_sample_label": "SIMULATION_NOT_EVIDENCE", "live_config": { "fingerprint": "sha256:fe82c4eeed742289bfcfee5d39856ee2bb8ca9cfe209bcc7e34abff98553706d", "declared_fingerprint": "sha256:fe82c4eeed742289bfcfee5d39856ee2bb8ca9cfe209bcc7e34abff98553706d", "matches_declaration": true, "declared_in": "config/live_change_contract.json", "what_it_covers": "Every setting that decides how the live book trades: the BlendStrategy defaults that reach production because no call site overrides them; the constituent overlay, drawdown ladder and per-name clip read from Settings; and the flagship's sleeve composition, weights, disclosed tilt and separate aggregation policy. Derived from inspect.signature, Settings and the published state, never from a hand-maintained list.", "why": "A record that cannot say which configuration produced it cannot be read as one experiment. This stamp is what lets a reader tell a continuous forward test from a curve that changed underneath itself." }, "continuity": { "as_of": "2026-08-25", "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "Reads the per-sleeve trading databases read-only. Opens no market data, registers no hypothesis identity and changes nothing. Corrects session-date classification only; it changes no mark, equity, return, order, fill or configuration. 0 trials.", "content_hash": "sha256:37ead08bdc7567776ca7e9e9f438072d95c2972adb8e3d09bab0cff9aa5c804c", "correction": { "documentation": "docs/design/CORRECTION_ALPACA_SESSION_DATE_CONTINUITY.md", "raw_marks_rewritten": false, "status": "CORRECTED", "withdrawn_finding": "The v1 UTC-calendar audit called 2026-08-10 a systemic gap. The three Alpaca rows stamped 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z are the finalized 2026-08-10 XNYS closes." }, "days_since_go_live": 19, "go_live_date": "2026-08-07", "how_a_gap_is_classified": "Crypto marks and expectations use UTC calendar dates. Alpaca 1D midnight-UTC marks map to the preceding XNYS session; equity expectations come from XNYS sessions, so weekends and exchange holidays are legitimate absences.", "max_gap_rate_threshold": 0.2, "passes": true, "schema": "canli.alphac-record-continuity.v1", "sleeves": { "alphaforge": { "calendar_days_marked": 16, "database": "var/trading_crypto_perp.sqlite", "database_exists": true, "days_expected": 19, "days_marked": 16, "days_since_go_live": 19, "expected_calendar": "UTC_24_7", "gap_rate": 0.15789473684210525, "legitimate_absence_days": [], "legitimate_absences": 0, "longest_consecutive_gap": 2, "mark_date_convention": "UTC_CALENDAR_DATE", "real_gap_days": [ "2026-08-07", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-10" ], "real_gaps": 3, "trades_24_7": true }, "alphamax": { "calendar_days_marked": 13, "database": "var/trading_equity.sqlite", "database_exists": true, "days_expected": 13, "days_marked": 13, "days_since_go_live": 19, "expected_calendar": "XNYS", "gap_rate": 0.0, "legitimate_absence_days": [ "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-15", "2026-08-16", "2026-08-22", "2026-08-23" ], "legitimate_absences": 6, "longest_consecutive_gap": 0, "mark_date_convention": "ALPACA_1D_CLOSE_D_STAMPED_D_PLUS_1_00_UTC", "real_gap_days": [], "real_gaps": 0, "trades_24_7": false }, "alphavintage": { "calendar_days_marked": 13, "database": "var/trading_alphavintage.sqlite", "database_exists": true, "days_expected": 13, "days_marked": 13, "days_since_go_live": 19, "expected_calendar": "XNYS", "gap_rate": 0.0, "legitimate_absence_days": [ "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-15", "2026-08-16", "2026-08-22", "2026-08-23" ], "legitimate_absences": 6, "longest_consecutive_gap": 0, "mark_date_convention": "ALPACA_1D_CLOSE_D_STAMPED_D_PLUS_1_00_UTC", "real_gap_days": [], "real_gaps": 0, "trades_24_7": false }, "managed_futures": { "calendar_days_marked": 13, "database": "var/trading_managed_futures.sqlite", "database_exists": true, "days_expected": 13, "days_marked": 13, "days_since_go_live": 19, "expected_calendar": "XNYS", "gap_rate": 0.0, "legitimate_absence_days": [ "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-15", "2026-08-16", "2026-08-22", "2026-08-23" ], "legitimate_absences": 6, "longest_consecutive_gap": 0, "mark_date_convention": "ALPACA_1D_CLOSE_D_STAMPED_D_PLUS_1_00_UTC", "real_gap_days": [], "real_gaps": 0, "trades_24_7": false } }, "systemic_gap_days": [], "systemic_note": "Dates that are expected and missing on EVERY sleeve's own calendar are systemic \u2014 the tick did not run or did not mark \u2014 rather than a fault in any one sleeve.", "threshold_basis": "Declared, not fitted. A threshold derived from today's gap rate would pass whatever the gap rate happens to be, which is not a threshold.", "what_this_does_not_measure": "Whether a mark is CORRECT \u2014 only whether one exists. A sleeve marking the same equity every day would show a perfect continuity record and a frozen curve. That is the publish gate's job (check_published_state), not this one's.", "worst_gap_rate": 0.15789473684210525 }, "evidence_maturity": { "status": "FAIL_CLOSED_PROVENANCE", "underlying_status": "IMMATURE_RECORD_TOO_SHORT", "provenance_passes": false, "failed_provenance_checks": [ "crypto_position_attribution_complete", "crypto_position_attribution_reconciles_equity", "crypto_position_attribution_reproduces_position_arithmetic", "crypto_position_attribution_covers_last_mark", "crypto_position_attribution_rollout_verified" ], "sharpe": { "daily_return_observations": 16, "estimate_minimum": 252, "establishment_minimum": 756, "observations_to_estimate": 236, "observations_to_establishment": 740, "annualization_days": 365.0, "target": 1.5, "target_exceedance_probability_min": 0.95, "annualized_point_estimate": null, "probability_true_sharpe_exceeds_target": null, "target_observed": false, "target_statistically_established": false, "status": "FAIL_CLOSED_PROVENANCE", "underlying_status": "IMMATURE_RECORD_TOO_SHORT" }, "drawdown": { "realized_live_max_drawdown": 0.023528384638913047, "realized_status": "DESCRIPTIVE_TO_DATE_NOT_EXPECTED_MAX_DRAWDOWN", "expected_max_drawdown_target": 0.11, "study_production_labelled_expected_max_drawdown": 0.10251155801473733, "study_production_labelled_p95_max_drawdown": 0.1876321103559252, "current_composition_conservative_expected_max_drawdown": 0.09318244773230698, "current_composition_conservative_p95_max_drawdown": 0.16451439873252724, "current_composition_study_status": "CURRENT_COMPOSITION_EXPECTED_WITHIN_OBJECTIVE_HISTORICAL_TAIL_COVERAGE_INCOMPLETE", "current_composition_expected_within_objective": true, "current_composition_p95_within_objective": false, "current_composition_failed_establishment_dimensions": [ "COMMON_WINDOW_BEGINS_AFTER_COVID_AND_2022", "ABSENT_CRISIS_CANNOT_APPEAR_IN_BLOCK_BOOTSTRAP", "REGIME_MODEL_HAS_NO_STRESS_VOLATILITY_MULTIPLIER", "CONSTITUENT_INSTRUMENT_AND_LADDER_STATE_NOT_REPLAYED", "EXECUTION_GAPS_AND_LIQUIDITY_FEEDBACK_NOT_MODELED" ], "study_status": "CURRENT_COMPOSITION_EXPECTED_WITHIN_OBJECTIVE_LIVE_NOT_ESTABLISHED", "production_equivalence_passes": false, "production_equivalence_failed_checks": [ "sleeve_count_matches_live_book", "book_level_volatility_target_matches_live_composite", "book_level_risk_overlay_matches_live_composite", "single_daily_timebase_matches_mixed_live_timebases", "covariance_halflife_has_one_duration_across_live_sleeves", "production_shrinkage_is_inside_simulation" ], "objective_status": "MODELED_CURRENT_COMPOSITION_WITHIN_OBJECTIVE_LIVE_EXPECTED_MAX_DRAWDOWN_NOT_ESTABLISHED" }, "diversification": { "study_status": "CURRENT_COMPOSITION_DIVERSIFICATION_OBJECTIVE_GAP_RESEARCH_ONLY", "current_sleeves": 4, "target_total_sleeves": 14, "average_pairwise_correlation": 0.024827414293607856, "average_pairwise_correlation_objective": -0.03, "active_v7_has_no_global_average_correlation_point_gate": true, "active_v7_candidate_average_correlation_gate": 0.0, "historical_v6_global_average_correlation_point_gate": 0.0, "average_pairwise_upper_95": 0.04870778381377487, "average_pairwise_upper_95_gate": 0.1, "maximum_pairwise_correlation": 0.20975189522943685, "maximum_pairwise_upper_95": 0.3025187934584474, "stressed_pairwise_design_value_not_observed": 0.5, "diversification_ratio_sleeves_only": 1.8153132626773805, "effective_independent_sleeves_participation_ratio": 3.8988014966039604, "marginal_book_sharpe_research_diagnostics": { "alphavintage_live": { "book_sharpe_with_sleeve": 1.7846281534351103, "book_sharpe_with_sleeve_replaced_by_cash": 1.7908857094735895, "marginal_book_sharpe_delta": -0.006257556038479217 }, "crypto_carry_wk": { "book_sharpe_with_sleeve": 1.7846281534351103, "book_sharpe_with_sleeve_replaced_by_cash": 1.2520345246277234, "marginal_book_sharpe_delta": 0.5325936288073869 }, "k30_dn_63": { "book_sharpe_with_sleeve": 1.7846281534351103, "book_sharpe_with_sleeve_replaced_by_cash": 1.637795681607975, "marginal_book_sharpe_delta": 0.1468324718271352 }, "managed_futures": { "book_sharpe_with_sleeve": 1.7846281534351103, "book_sharpe_with_sleeve_replaced_by_cash": 1.875465970548092, "marginal_book_sharpe_delta": -0.09083781711298178 } }, "checks": { "average_pairwise_upper_95": true, "minimum_correlation_observations": true, "ordinary_pairwise_point": true, "ordinary_pairwise_upper_95": true, "stressed_pairwise_design": true }, "passes_all_active_v7_risk_comparisons": true, "live_forward_diversification_established": false, "failed_establishment_dimensions": [ "RESEARCH_CURVES_END_BEFORE_BROKER_RECONCILED_FORWARD_RECORD", "RETURN_DATA_WERE_KNOWN_BEFORE_PROTOCOL", "NO_HUMAN_INDEPENDENT_REPLICATION", "NO_CRISIS_COMPLETE_FORWARD_CORRELATION_WINDOW" ], "objective_status": "CURRENT_COMPOSITION_AVERAGE_CORRELATION_OBJECTIVE_GAP_LIVE_FORWARD_NOT_ESTABLISHED" }, "public_path": "/glassbox/forward_evidence_maturity.json", "drawdown_evidence_public_path": "/glassbox/forward_drawdown_evidence.json", "diversification_evidence_public_path": "/glassbox/current_book_diversification.json", "contract_public_path": "/glassbox/forward_evidence_contract.json", "methodology_paper_public_path": "/research/forward-sharpe-evidence-standard", "content_hash": "sha256:af68175c3c8eaf435f219ae56ad9116524e422bad9218de851a53ab755aff899" } }, "execution_provenance": { "summary": "3 sleeves use dedicated Alpaca paper accounts; AlphaForge uses the local AlphaForge PaperBroker against live exchange order books; ALPHAC is a derived composite and has no direct broker account.", "alpaca_broker_executed_sleeves": [ "alphamax", "managed_futures", "alphavintage" ], "all_sleeves": [ { "key": "alphac", "name": "ALPHAC", "go_live": "2026-08-07", "last_mark": "2026-08-25", "execution": { "record_kind": "DERIVED_PAPER_BOOK", "capital_kind": "PAPER_ONLY", "broker": "MULTI_SOURCE", "account_scope": "NO_DIRECT_BROKER_ACCOUNT", "mark_source": "COMBINED_FROM_CONSTITUENT_PAPER_CURVES_AND_DISCLOSED_OVERLAY", "external_attestation": false } }, { "key": "alphamax", "name": "AlphaMax", "go_live": "2026-08-07", "last_mark": "2026-08-25", "execution": { "record_kind": "BROKER_EXECUTED_PAPER", "capital_kind": "PAPER_ONLY", "broker": "ALPACA", "account_scope": "DEDICATED_SLEEVE_ACCOUNT", "mark_source": "ALPACA_PORTFOLIO_HISTORY_AND_LOCAL_EXECUTION_LEDGER", "external_attestation": false } }, { "key": "managed_futures", "name": "AlphaTrend", "go_live": "2026-08-07", "last_mark": "2026-08-25", "execution": { "record_kind": "BROKER_EXECUTED_PAPER", "capital_kind": "PAPER_ONLY", "broker": "ALPACA", "account_scope": "DEDICATED_SLEEVE_ACCOUNT", "mark_source": "ALPACA_PORTFOLIO_HISTORY_AND_LOCAL_EXECUTION_LEDGER", "external_attestation": false } }, { "key": "alphavintage", "name": "AlphaVintage", "go_live": "2026-08-07", "last_mark": "2026-08-25", "execution": { "record_kind": "BROKER_EXECUTED_PAPER", "capital_kind": "PAPER_ONLY", "broker": "ALPACA", "account_scope": "DEDICATED_SLEEVE_ACCOUNT", "mark_source": "ALPACA_PORTFOLIO_HISTORY_AND_LOCAL_EXECUTION_LEDGER", "external_attestation": false } }, { "key": "alphaforge", "name": "AlphaForge", "go_live": "2026-08-07", "last_mark": "2026-08-25", "execution": { "record_kind": "LOCALLY_SIMULATED_PAPER_FILLS", "capital_kind": "PAPER_ONLY", "broker": "ALPHAFORGE_PAPERBROKER", "account_scope": "LOCAL_DEDICATED_SLEEVE_STATE", "mark_source": "LIVE_EXCHANGE_ORDER_BOOKS_AND_LOCAL_EXECUTION_LEDGER", "external_attestation": false } } ], "broker_reconciliation_claim": "BROKER_DERIVED_LOCAL_PUBLICATION_NOT_EXTERNALLY_ATTESTED", "broker_reconciliation": { "status": "PASS", "generated_at": "2026-08-25T14:25:21.895424+00:00", "reconciled_alpaca_sleeves": 3, "unique_dedicated_accounts": true, "public_path": "/glassbox/alpaca_broker_reconciliation.json", "attestation_boundary": "SELF_PUBLISHED_BROKER_DERIVED_NOT_THIRD_PARTY" } }, "research_governance": { "trial_accounting": { "distinct_hypothesis_identities": 229, "hypothesis_identity_budget": 400, "budget_remaining": 171, "budget_status": "PASS", "research_status": "ACTIVE_STAGED_PROSPECTIVE_BUDGET" }, "atlas": { "families": 40, "cells": 240, "new_sleeves_admitted": 0, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, "paper_corpus": { "published_markdown_papers": 108, "family_papers": [ { "research_family_key": "alphamax_equity_momentum", "title": "AlphaMax equity momentum: signal, trial lineage, and evidence boundary", "public_path": "/research/alphamax-equity-momentum-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" }, { "research_family_key": "crypto_carry", "title": "Crypto perpetual carry: trial lineage, capacity failure, and live evidence boundary", "public_path": "/research/crypto-carry-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" }, { "research_family_key": "crypto_momentum", "title": "Crypto momentum: complete trial lineage and failed sleeve-admission evidence", "public_path": "/research/crypto-momentum-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" }, { "research_family_key": "managed_futures_trend", "title": "AlphaTrend managed-futures trend: complete trial lineage and evidence boundary", "public_path": "/research/alphatrend-managed-futures-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" }, { "research_family_key": "crypto_volatility_risk_premium", "title": "Crypto volatility risk premium: one proxy trial and a published null", "public_path": "/research/crypto-vrp-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" }, { "research_family_key": "crypto_multifactor_engine", "title": "Crypto multi-factor engine: seven trials, capacity decay, and no-deploy verdict", "public_path": "/research/crypto-multifactor-engine-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" }, { "research_family_key": "equity_narrative_change", "title": "Annual risk-factor narrative stability: a preregistered null", "public_path": "/research/equity-narrative-change-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" }, { "research_family_key": "equity_fundamental_quality", "title": "Equity fundamental quality: 11 identities and no validated sleeve", "public_path": "/research/equity-quality-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" }, { "research_family_key": "equity_fundamental_value_investment", "title": "Equity value, issuance, and investment: 13 identities and unstable evidence", "public_path": "/research/equity-value-investment-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" }, { "research_family_key": "alphavintage_macro_surprise", "title": "Point-in-time inflation surprise and the equity size spread: a corrected null and deployment-governance case study", "public_path": "/research/alphavintage-macro-surprise-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE" }, { "research_family_key": "crypto_defensive", "title": "Crypto defensive factors: complete trial lineage", "public_path": "/research/crypto-defensive-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" }, { "research_family_key": "crypto_short_horizon_reversal", "title": "Crypto short-horizon reversal: complete trial lineage", "public_path": "/research/crypto-reversal-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" }, { "research_family_key": "energy_inventory", "title": "Petroleum inventory scarcity: complete trial lineage", "public_path": "/research/energy-inventory-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" }, { "research_family_key": "equity_insider_activity", "title": "Clustered insider purchases: complete trial lineage", "public_path": "/research/equity-insider-activity-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" }, { "research_family_key": "equity_low_beta", "title": "Equity low beta: complete trial lineage", "public_path": "/research/equity-low-beta-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" }, { "research_family_key": "macro_economic_trend", "title": "Point-in-time macroeconomic trend: complete trial lineage", "public_path": "/research/macro-economic-trend-lineage.md", "authored_by": "Arhan Canli", "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED" } ], "trial_packet_coverage_status": "INCOMPLETE_LEGACY_BACKFILL_PROSPECTIVE_SERIAL_COMPLETE", "complete_trial_packets": 3, "candidate_mapped_identities": 198, "verified_family_paper_bindings": 228, "published_identity_packets": 229, "prospective_epoch": { "observed_identities": 1, "complete_identity_packets": 1, "candidate_evidence_complete_for_admission": false, "final_disposition": "INCOMPLETE", "admitted": false, "identity_packet_public_path": "/glassbox/trial-packets/da5f5f47f99f9bd2.json", "trial_paper_public_path": "/research/crypto-carry-portable-v1", "claim_boundary": "The prospective packet is complete as evidence accounting, while the candidate evidence required for admission is incomplete." }, "new_return_identity_gate": { "status": "OPEN_SERIAL_PACKET_COMPLETE", "enforced_before_return_compute": true, "incomplete_historical_packets": 226, "retired_historical_identities": 228, "historical_identities_eligible_for_admission": 0, "existing_identity_remeasurements_unaffected": true, "live_paper_execution_unaffected": true, "implementation": "src/alphaforge/validation/trial_reservation.py", "prior_forward_identity_packet_policy": "SERIAL_COMPLETE_PACKET_BEFORE_NEXT_FORWARD_IDENTITY", "legacy_epoch_closure_public_path": "/glassbox/legacy_research_epoch_closure.json", "claim_boundary": "The legacy epoch is retired fail-closed: no historical identity is admission-eligible or reusable, and missing packet sections remain missing. A genuinely new identity may run only after its exact pre-result reservation validates. Frozen live paper execution is unaffected. The first prospective identity now has a complete, hash-valid evidence-accounting packet and a final INCOMPLETE / NOT ADMITTED decision, so it no longer blocks the serial queue. Every later forward identity remains subject to the same rule before another can compute returns." }, "required_trial_packets": 229, "manifest_public_path": "/glassbox/trial_packet_manifest.json", "identity_packet_index_public_path": "/glassbox/trial-packets/index.json", "manifest_source_sha256": "0147dd8e631ca24257e2db384bf01d4637a79371f1754b284f3f7e9637c1369c", "claim_boundary": "The 228-identity historical manifest remains a retired fail-closed epoch with 226 incomplete packets. The separate prospective identity has a complete hash-valid accounting packet, but its candidate evidence is incomplete and it is not admitted. Packet publication or accounting completeness is not validation, admission, independent replication, or a future-return claim." } }, "source_provenance": { "paper_state": { "path": "data/paper/state.json", "sha256": "db5855959b9a81b43ed9e2be60e76bb01518e0e03a66ffb26aef940bb620e5af" }, "forward_evidence_maturity": { "path": "artifacts/engineering/forward_evidence_maturity.json", "sha256": "e6beb6cc10ae4f6b189aa19cf5596050841935b09c8d7a8e711def51e98ffd49", "content_hash": "sha256:af68175c3c8eaf435f219ae56ad9116524e422bad9218de851a53ab755aff899" }, "forward_sleeve_contribution": { "path": "artifacts/engineering/forward_sleeve_contribution.json", "sha256": "758ca64532542f2bce95bf8b35d4692609caa854d926f11f492589bf65d1ba90" }, "admission_contract": { "path": "config/sleeve_admission_contract.json", "sha256": "6bc72c1f47675b4e14897e1ba3aad6e56aba9b5f013a7b9bae57f930e8d3b8b6" }, "trial_policy": { "path": "config/trial_accounting.json", "sha256": "f15af7c989aded5da6c5259a7f7e5587377ab33977b5cd3c5b2395a84ea45043" }, "admission_v7_promotion": { "path": "config/admission_v7_promotion.json", "sha256": "5e7d95e9b6265c229b6e1604f96bc9e1b0db59e282ec0be33740b8dda3b552a5", "content_hash": "sha256:ddd107351033e9bda8f41065a811d9e5e5edccf32006b311d39a65d8ace918f3" }, "sleeve_atlas": { "path": "artifacts/discovery/sleeve_atlas.json", "sha256": "ea5254cd4463d94fde7e57558a8906dc06ef321bddd0aab0074f768d9778a521" } } }, "prospective_trial_record": { "schema": "canli.alphac-public-prospective-trial-record.v1", "title": "A hash-bound prospective test of cross-sectional perpetual-futures carry", "author": "Arhan Canli", "identity": { "config_hash": "50d9e8b059fee773", "family_trial_account": "crypto_carry", "hypotheses_spent": 1, "hypothesis_key": "da5f5f47f99f9bd2", "primary_return_trials_executed": 1, "reservation_ordinal": 229, "return_identity_id": "crypto_carry_portable_v1", "unregistered_variants_executed": 0 }, "classification": { "evidence_type": "HISTORICAL_WALK_FORWARD_SIMULATION", "external_submission_completed": false, "forward_live_result": false, "independent_replication": false, "live_broker_result": false, "peer_reviewed": false }, "metrics": { "annualized_daily_sharpe": 0.9688980432905521, "cagr": 0.1084306032402318, "annualized_volatility": 0.11010267815426131, "candidate_simulation_max_drawdown": 0.12303511718661964, "total_return": 0.5588081982357993, "daily_observations": 1574, "probabilistic_sharpe_ratio": 0.9776259474665245, "deflated_sharpe_ratio": 0.09141260613462271, "union_hypothesis_identities": 229 }, "stability_diagnostics": { "walkforward_legs": 25, "positive_sharpe_legs": 16, "nonpositive_sharpe_legs": 9, "median_leg_sharpe": 0.4755982022610931, "minimum_leave_one_calendar_year_out_sharpe": 0.6231691644266796, "calendar_year_results": [ { "annualized_sharpe": -0.5857395276234225, "calendar_year_utc": 2022, "compounded_return": -0.06791054181334855, "daily_observations": 326, "partial_year": true }, { "annualized_sharpe": 0.29886528490312586, "calendar_year_utc": 2023, "compounded_return": 0.02177539695601549, "daily_observations": 365, "partial_year": false }, { "annualized_sharpe": 1.7474898092325235, "calendar_year_utc": 2024, "compounded_return": 0.19630603974721095, "daily_observations": 366, "partial_year": false }, { "annualized_sharpe": 0.978050273638493, "calendar_year_utc": 2025, "compounded_return": 0.11567492054275608, "daily_observations": 365, "partial_year": false }, { "annualized_sharpe": 3.7872298021284503, "calendar_year_utc": 2026, "compounded_return": 0.2140290075708251, "daily_observations": 152, "partial_year": true } ] }, "gate_assessment": { "admission_status": "INCOMPLETE_NOT_ADMITTED", "evaluated": [ { "gate": "net_sharpe_min", "observed": 0.9688980432905521, "operator": ">=", "status": "PASS", "threshold": 0.15 }, { "gate": "minimum_oos_observations", "observed": 1574, "operator": ">=", "status": "PASS", "threshold": 756 }, { "admission_role": "MANDATORY_MEASUREMENT_NOT_PER_SLEEVE_GATE", "generic_runner_dsr_at_least_0_95_indicator": false, "generic_runner_indicator_is_governing_v7_gate": false, "observed": 0.09141260613462271, "requirement": "deflated_sharpe_must_be_measured", "status": "PASS_MEASUREMENT_PRESENT" } ], "governing_contract_schema": "canli.alphac-sleeve-admission-contract.v7", "not_evaluated": [ "newey_west_t_min", "newey_west_t_ratio_min", "stressed_sharpe_min", "capacity_curve_min_points", "capacity_minimum_stressed_fill_ratio", "capacity_usd_min", "ordinary_pairwise_correlation_max", "pairwise_correlation_upper_95_max", "stressed_pairwise_correlation_max", "stressed_pairwise_correlation_upper_95_max", "candidate_average_correlation_to_existing_book_max", "book_average_pairwise_correlation_delta_max_exclusive", "book_sharpe_delta_min_exclusive", "book_sharpe_delta_lower_95_min_exclusive", "minimum_leave_one_period_out_book_sharpe_delta_exclusive", "book_expected_shortfall_delta_max", 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It does not mean every admission gate was evaluated or passed.", "pbo": "NOT_DEFINED_SINGLE_REGISTERED_IDENTITY_NO_PATH_MATRIX", "primary_result_and_same_path_diagnostics": "SEALED", "unmeasured_gate_evidence": [ "newey_west_t_min", "newey_west_t_ratio_min", "stressed_sharpe_min", "capacity_curve_min_points", "capacity_minimum_stressed_fill_ratio", "capacity_usd_min", "ordinary_pairwise_correlation_max", "pairwise_correlation_upper_95_max", "stressed_pairwise_correlation_max", "stressed_pairwise_correlation_upper_95_max", "candidate_average_correlation_to_existing_book_max", "book_average_pairwise_correlation_delta_max_exclusive", "book_sharpe_delta_min_exclusive", "book_sharpe_delta_lower_95_min_exclusive", "minimum_leave_one_period_out_book_sharpe_delta_exclusive", "book_expected_shortfall_delta_max", "book_max_drawdown_delta_max", "book_expected_max_drawdown_max", "book_deflated_sharpe_must_be_measured", "execution_scenario_bundle", "overlay_replay" ], "unmeasured_values_are_null_or_absent": true, "unmeasured_values_treated_as_pass": false }, "supporting_facts": { "fresh_input_comparison": { "overlap_ohlcv_field_revisions": 1256, "content_hash": "sha256:7b74d9d32354b41c148428682ff2109a3a3b0d7bdb2a56e143d173fd5dc32fcc" }, "portable_lake_production_readback": { "ohlcv_rows": 2137040, "funding_rows": 272846, "universe_intervals": 108, "content_hash": "sha256:d6ead5a3dd1b0db3f5db840ef3a4b00519d63b4af0ed354741cd33d0389f7d62" }, "private_input_snapshot_aggregate_only": { "signal_rows": 2454144, "file_count": 781, "raw_execution_partition_files": 603, "source_and_environment_files": 174, "snapshot_bytes": 102831710, "root_sha256": "c8b573712103907130a301f22d578feb07e31de0939339450f766b2d037df822", "public_release_allowed": false }, "bibliographic_identifiers": { "perpetual_futures_pricing": "10.3386/w32936", "crypto_carry": "10.2139/ssrn.4268371" }, "aggregate_walkforward_risk_counters": { "bars_half_gross": 16591, "bars_halted_flat": 0, "rebalances": 225, "fallback_uses": 225 } }, "packet": { "complete": true, "packet_status": "COMPLETE_EVIDENCED_FINAL_INCOMPLETE_NOT_ADMITTED", "completion_assessment": { "blockers": [], "candidate_evidence_complete_for_admission": false, "disposition": "INCOMPLETE_NOT_ADMITTED", "next_forward_identity_blocked_by_this_packet": false, "packet_evidence_accounting_complete": true, "status": "COMPLETE_EVIDENCE_ACCOUNTING_FINAL_INCOMPLETE" }, "content_hash": "sha256:9ba408cb3c1d9accd91eddd25a079995a8d42aa6b7456dd6afd22539917ce40a" }, "future_protocol": { "status": "TEMPLATE_NOT_IN_FORCE_NO_RETURN_AUTHORIZATION", "scope": { "applies_to_known_results": false, "earliest_possible_reservation_ordinal": 230, "requires_separate_policy_promotion": true }, "audit_status": "PASS_TEMPLATE_FAIL_CLOSED_NOT_ACTIVE_ZERO_RETURN", "remaining_before_promotion": [ "SATISFIABILITY_AUDIT_PASSES", "TRIAL_ACCOUNTING_BATCH_AND_DIAGNOSTIC_CLASSIFICATION_PROMOTED", "SERIALITY_GUARD_SUPPORTS_PREDECLARED_BATCH", "PUBLIC_PROJECTION_TESTS_PASS", "OWNER_PROMOTION_RECORDED" ], "claim_boundary": "This is a fail-closed design template, not an active policy, reservation, candidate, result, or return authorization. Null and empty fields must be filled and hash-bound before validation. It cannot be applied to a known result." }, "public_paths": { "paper": "/research/crypto-carry-portable-v1", "result": "/glassbox/crypto_carry_portable_v1_result.json", "admission_closure": "/glassbox/crypto_carry_portable_v1_admission_closure.json", "identity_packet": "/glassbox/trial-packets/da5f5f47f99f9bd2.json", "identity_packet_alias": "/glassbox/trial-packets/crypto_carry_portable_v1.json", "future_template": "/glassbox/forward_full_evidence_reservation_v2_template.json", "future_template_audit": "/glassbox/forward_full_evidence_reservation_v2_template_audit.json" }, "source_bindings": { "result_sha256": "bca34612b3f683666e5738fbbe352be7953a233b4fd6689ba1111d56385e916c", "closure_sha256": "83c330782c7178315ad55648b18db31a3798e767ffdbdd8c0fe2af7c76beeef1", "packet_sha256": "c46b821057d5991b713f673db74e92c416167513481c433fadae6c7ead7657f9", "paper_sha256": "141bbf970993a5ee594d27ddd8c55dc8aeb2944dc7cd0bd24712e53e307188c5", "future_template_sha256": "f7f55bd4237cc19fdc69ae7aba19e05d14263a710725948cc04753e981b236f5", "future_template_audit_sha256": "e1a15b846502e5d28b318b59af9328ded14be5972d00a63ab3c9766536b96521", "portable_lake_readiness_sha256": "e6c829153b60ac5fef16d35abe052e9efa720f96a61e4106ccb35c2c4f8ae441", "portable_prerun_readiness_sha256": "15de6929185213098ec2c3864b6ac16ae0c1a328003feda547dd90624502f702", "private_input_snapshot_manifest_sha256": "a1ac28f065bffcc761f9a3b8f7058deb55f8d7672f72770d27b02fd07ade1156" }, "claim_boundary": "This receipt seals one preregistered historical walk-forward simulation and its same-path diagnostics. It does not establish admission, live or future returns, capacity, diversification, book drawdown, independent replication, peer review, or external publication. Missing evidence is null or explicitly NOT_EVALUATED." }, "forward_evidence_contract": { "schema": "canli.alphac-forward-evidence-contract.v6", "author": "Arhan Canli", "capital_kind": "PAPER_ONLY", "return_frequency": "CONSECUTIVE_PUBLISHED_UTC_DAILY_MARKS_NO_SYNTHETIC_FILL", "annualization_days": 365, "minimum_daily_returns_for_estimate": 252, "minimum_daily_returns_for_establishment": 756, "forward_sharpe_target": 1.5, "target_exceedance_probability_min": 0.95, "expected_max_drawdown_target": 0.11, "broker_reconciliation_max_age_hours": 36, "broker_state_lag_tolerance_hours": 1, "required_live_config_fingerprint": "sha256:fe82c4eeed742289bfcfee5d39856ee2bb8ca9cfe209bcc7e34abff98553706d", "required_continuity_schema": "canli.alphac-record-continuity.v1", "required_broker_reconciliation_schema": "canli.alphac-alpaca-broker-reconciliation.v1", "required_drawdown_model_schema": "canli.alphac-drawdown-live-estimator.v1", "required_current_book_drawdown_study_schema": "canli.alphac-current-book-drawdown-study.v1", "required_current_book_diversification_study_schema": "canli.alphac-current-book-diversification-study.v1", "required_drawdown_evidence_schema": "canli.alphac-forward-drawdown-evidence.v1", "required_transparency_schema": "glassbox.transparency_log/2", "required_transparency_payload_schema": "canli.alphac-track-record-daily-digest.v1", "required_crypto_position_attribution_schema": "canli.alphac-crypto-position-attribution.v1", "required_crypto_position_attribution_rollout_schema": "canli.alphac-crypto-position-attribution-rollout-verification.v1", "methodology_paper_public_path": "/research/forward-sharpe-evidence-standard", "rules": { "estimate_eligible": "At least 252 finite non-constant returns from consecutive published daily marks, plus every provenance gate passing.", "target_observed": "The annualized point Sharpe is at least 1.5; this is not statistical establishment.", "target_statistically_established": "At least 756 returns and PSR probability that the true annualized Sharpe exceeds 1.5 of at least 0.95, plus every provenance gate passing.", "drawdown": "Realized live maximum drawdown is always published. A simulation may be published only with p95, exact configuration mapping and explicit failed establishment dimensions. The older 14-sleeve daily study applies a 10% book-level volatility target and is not an estimate of the current four-sleeve fixed-weight composite. The zero-drift current-composition study maps the exact weights and strategic overlay and may be compared with the 11% objective, but its post-2022 common window and omitted constituent instrument, execution-gap and ladder state mean neither expected value nor p95 establishes live expected drawdown.", "diversification": "The exact current-composition research study must publish average sleeve correlation, its synchronized block-bootstrap upper 95% bound, the maximum ordinary pair and its upper bound, the stressed design value, effective sleeve and diversification-ratio diagnostics, and fixed-to-cash marginal historical book-Sharpe deltas. Every threshold comes from the sleeve-admission contract. A positive average correlation fails the non-positive point gate even when described as near zero. Research-window evidence never establishes live-forward diversification and never retroactively adjudicates an existing sleeve.", "configuration_change": "A live-configuration fingerprint change starts a new evidence epoch; pre-change and post-change returns cannot be silently pooled.", "missing_marks": "Missing calendar dates are not filled with zero returns. The continuity audit is a separate mandatory gate.", "public_chain": "The current paper state must exactly equal the canonical payload disclosed in the signed transparency-chain head. Link continuity, every Ed25519 signature, every disclosed payload hash, and the prospective disclosure boundary must validate. Historical opaque commitments remain explicitly incomplete and are not reconstructed.", "crypto_position_attribution": "The latest locally simulated crypto paper cycle must be non-empty, persist complete order-book marks for every open position, independently reproduce each stored market value and unrealized P&L from quantity, mark, and entry price, and reconcile cash plus marked market value to account equity within the frozen tolerances. A flat cycle cannot vacuously certify the mark path. Entry-price fallback marks, non-finite values, non-positive prices, missing prospective fields, position-count mismatch, stale cycle coverage, position-arithmetic residual, or equity-reconciliation residual fail provenance closed. Historical rows are never backfilled.", "crypto_position_attribution_rollout": "A hash-bound deployment receipt and the frozen first later non-empty natural cycle must prove the mark-aware runtime operated on the sole-writer Frankfurt paper host without a forced cycle. Before deployment, missing receipt evidence is published deterministically and fails closed without querying Frankfurt. A successful first-cycle receipt is immutable for that exact deployment receipt." }, "claim_boundary": "This contract freezes how forward evidence will be described before the record is mature. It does not guarantee a Sharpe ratio, convert paper trading into real capital, establish expected drawdown from realized history, or treat a non-equivalent simulation cell as a live-book risk estimate." }, "forward_drawdown_evidence": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "capital_kind": "PAPER_ONLY", "claim_boundary": "The sealed study cell is a 96-path, two-year, fourteen-sleeve, daily simulation at a 10% book-level volatility target. It is not an estimate of today's four-sleeve, mixed-timebase, fixed-weight live paper composite, which applies no second book-level volatility target or drawdown ladder after constituent sizing. The 10.25% study expectation and 18.76% study p95 remain published. A separate zero-drift current-composition study maps the exact fixed weights and overlay at 9.32% conservative expected and 16.45% p95 maximum drawdown. That stronger model still does not establish live expected or tail maximum drawdown because its common history begins after COVID and 2022 and it does not replay constituent instrument, execution-gap or ladder state.", "content_hash": "sha256:6886b4991b2dd78d1fb2e501f7c19b78f3011e901e19c11260550227e5cefddc", "current_book_study": { "calibration": { "calendar_days": 1061, "component_order": [ "alphavintage_live", "crypto_carry_wk", "k30_dn_63", "managed_futures", "strategic_overlay" ], "end": "2026-06-01", "exact_component_reconstruction_max_abs_error": 0.0, "observed_book_annualized_volatility": 0.05213553893866788, "observed_book_max_drawdown": 0.04508709584099779, "observed_book_sharpe_simulation_not_forward_evidence": 1.7846281534351103, "sample_mean_removed_before_modeling": true, "start": "2023-07-07" }, "content_hash": "sha256:bf0759012873386a4d049f35eaae0677a3fd7e98a62c3ea09f44b6a6215e7c23", "design": { "bootstrap_primary_block_days": 63, "bootstrap_seed": 20260823, "bootstrap_sensitivity_block_days": [ 21, 63, 126 ], "horizon_calendar_days": 730, "paths_per_model": 10000, "regime_component_means": "ZERO", "regime_mean_stress_run_days": 40.0, "regime_seed": 20260824, "regime_stress_correlation": 0.5, "regime_stress_share": 0.12 }, "failed_establishment_dimensions": [ "COMMON_WINDOW_BEGINS_AFTER_COVID_AND_2022", "ABSENT_CRISIS_CANNOT_APPEAR_IN_BLOCK_BOOTSTRAP", "REGIME_MODEL_HAS_NO_STRESS_VOLATILITY_MULTIPLIER", "CONSTITUENT_INSTRUMENT_AND_LADDER_STATE_NOT_REPLAYED", "EXECUTION_GAPS_AND_LIQUIDITY_FEEDBACK_NOT_MODELED" ], "status": "CURRENT_COMPOSITION_EXPECTED_WITHIN_OBJECTIVE_HISTORICAL_TAIL_COVERAGE_INCOMPLETE" }, "integrity_passes": true, "objective": { "current_composition_conservative_expected_max_drawdown": 0.09318244773230698, "current_composition_conservative_p95_max_drawdown": 0.16451439873252724, "current_composition_expected_within_objective": true, "current_composition_p95_within_objective": false, "expected_max_drawdown_target": 0.11, "live_expected_max_drawdown_established": false, "live_p95_max_drawdown_established": false, "study_expected_within_objective": true, "study_p95_within_objective": false, "study_production_labelled_expected_max_drawdown": 0.10251155801473733, "study_production_labelled_p95_max_drawdown": 0.1876321103559252 }, "production_equivalence": { "checks": { "book_level_risk_overlay_matches_live_composite": false, "book_level_volatility_target_matches_live_composite": false, "covariance_halflife_has_one_duration_across_live_sleeves": false, "production_shrinkage_is_inside_simulation": false, "single_daily_timebase_matches_mixed_live_timebases": false, "sleeve_count_matches_live_book": false }, "declared_constituent_blend_strategy_volatility_target": 0.15, "declared_live_book_aggregation": { "book_level_drawdown_ladder": null, "book_level_vol_target_ann": null, "claim_boundary": "Constituent strategies own their internal sizing. ALPHAC combines their realized returns at the committed fixed-weight schedule and adds the separately disclosed strategic overlay. It does not apply a second book-level volatility target or drawdown ladder.", "missing_mark_policy": "ZERO_CONTRIBUTION_ON_MISSING_DAILY_SLEEVE_MARK", "scheme": "fixed", "strategic_overlay_is_book_vol_scaled": false }, "declared_live_book_level_drawdown_ladder": null, "declared_live_book_level_volatility_target": null, "declared_live_sleeves": 4, "declared_live_strategy_defaults": { "cov_halflife_days": null, "cov_min_periods": 240, "cov_window_bars": 720, "realized_vol_halflife_bars": 240 }, "failed_checks": [ "sleeve_count_matches_live_book", "book_level_volatility_target_matches_live_composite", "book_level_risk_overlay_matches_live_composite", "single_daily_timebase_matches_mixed_live_timebases", "covariance_halflife_has_one_duration_across_live_sleeves", "production_shrinkage_is_inside_simulation" ], "passes": false }, "schema": "canli.alphac-forward-drawdown-evidence.v1", "source_bindings": { "admission_contract": { "path": "config/sleeve_admission_contract.json", "sha256": "6bc72c1f47675b4e14897e1ba3aad6e56aba9b5f013a7b9bae57f930e8d3b8b6" }, "analyzer": { "path": "scripts/analyze_drawdown_live_estimator.py", "sha256": "01c6152f2baf65f093abd8227f342162679bedea468ad1691940af09a8916c6e" }, "covariance_estimator": { "path": "src/alphaforge/portfolio/covariance.py", "sha256": "bdc3655b8dbe65ab3a4cd28f4c03f13afadca7927fd393aa5364baebf908f391" }, "current_book_drawdown_model": { "path": "artifacts/analysis/current_book_drawdown/result.json", "sha256": "8c99fd77e1212ff9bdd7ddb66df7bb5b04b170673c8687b0de3ff4b6c6b70ce7" }, "drawdown_model": { "path": "artifacts/analysis/drawdown_live_estimator/result.json", "sha256": "9671ed7551aab242dc3529510cf9105201835096f36bb971153c132081754324" }, "forward_contract": { "path": "config/forward_evidence_contract.json", "sha256": "d1b0c97921d9c8b96de7af275b18b9d0ffbfe1332a078061135e8d044ba3981a" }, "live_change_contract": { "path": "config/live_change_contract.json", "sha256": "a28ea309bf15253229f9cfa11da4c786323076d1aef6c83ffda5d7615338793d" }, "strategy": { "path": "src/alphaforge/portfolio/strategy.py", "sha256": "e2e247cf5d32fa707f813b11ff8afe32cd01b3d46a831d25f030810a4f3bc1f4" } }, "status": "CURRENT_COMPOSITION_EXPECTED_WITHIN_OBJECTIVE_LIVE_NOT_ESTABLISHED", "study_best_cell_not_live_authorized": { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.07961651142754178, "halflife_bars": 7, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.002651750174587392, "median_max_drawdown": 0.07296828964913477, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 3.5728097679213637, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.1353666307587787, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.869413899839946, "realized_book_vol": 0.09986931273260134, "seed_rows": 240, "window_bars": 720 }, "study_design": { "mean_run_days": 40.0, "min_periods_fraction": 0.3333333333333333, "paths": 96, "rho_calm": -0.02, "rho_stress": 0.5, "s_bar": 0.469, "seed": 20260822, "sleeves": 14, "stress_share": 0.12, "vol_target": 0.1, "years": 2 }, "study_production_labelled_cell": { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.10251155801473733, "halflife_bars": 720, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.004873668252574118, "median_max_drawdown": 0.09495320055081719, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 0.5097645401795198, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.1876321103559252, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.3467484690997482, "realized_book_vol": 0.10412475476117108, "seed_rows": 240, "window_bars": 720 } }, "current_book_drawdown": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "calibration": { "calendar_days": 1061, "component_order": [ "alphavintage_live", "crypto_carry_wk", "k30_dn_63", "managed_futures", "strategic_overlay" ], "end": "2026-06-01", "exact_component_reconstruction_max_abs_error": 0.0, "observed_book_annualized_volatility": 0.05213553893866788, "observed_book_max_drawdown": 0.04508709584099779, "observed_book_sharpe_simulation_not_forward_evidence": 1.7846281534351103, "sample_mean_removed_before_modeling": true, "start": "2023-07-07" }, "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_OVER_PAPER_SPECIFICATION", "claim_boundary": "This is a zero-drift two-year risk simulation of the exact current four-sleeve fixed-weight research composition and strategic overlay. It is stronger mapping evidence than the fourteen-sleeve frontier cell, but it is not a funded result, a loss limit, a guarantee, or an established live expected-drawdown estimate. The common window begins after COVID and 2022, and neither model replays constituent instrument, execution-gap or ladder state.", "configuration": { "aggregation": { "book_level_drawdown_ladder": null, "book_level_vol_target_ann": null, "claim_boundary": "Constituent strategies own their internal sizing. ALPHAC combines their realized returns at the committed fixed-weight schedule and adds the separately disclosed strategic overlay. 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"crypto_position_attribution_complete": false, "crypto_position_attribution_reconciles_equity": false, "crypto_position_attribution_reproduces_position_arithmetic": false, "crypto_position_attribution_covers_last_mark": false, "crypto_position_attribution_rollout_schema": true, "crypto_position_attribution_rollout_content_hash": true, "crypto_position_attribution_rollout_verified": false }, "failed_checks": [ "crypto_position_attribution_complete", "crypto_position_attribution_reconciles_equity", "crypto_position_attribution_reproduces_position_arithmetic", "crypto_position_attribution_covers_last_mark", "crypto_position_attribution_rollout_verified" ], "transparency_chain_validation_error": null, "transparency_state_validation_error": null }, "record": { "first_mark": "2026-08-07", "last_mark": "2026-08-25", "curve_points": 17, "daily_return_observations": 16, "cumulative_return": -0.022473599999999982, "return_frequency": "CONSECUTIVE_PUBLISHED_UTC_DAILY_MARKS_NO_SYNTHETIC_FILL", "configuration_fingerprint": "sha256:fe82c4eeed742289bfcfee5d39856ee2bb8ca9cfe209bcc7e34abff98553706d" }, "sharpe_evidence": { "daily_return_observations": 16, "estimate_minimum": 252, "establishment_minimum": 756, "observations_to_estimate": 236, "observations_to_establishment": 740, "annualization_days": 365.0, "target": 1.5, "target_exceedance_probability_min": 0.95, "annualized_point_estimate": null, "probability_true_sharpe_exceeds_target": null, "target_observed": false, "target_statistically_established": false, "status": "FAIL_CLOSED_PROVENANCE", "underlying_status": "IMMATURE_RECORD_TOO_SHORT" }, "drawdown_evidence": { "realized_live_max_drawdown": 0.023528384638913047, "realized_status": "DESCRIPTIVE_TO_DATE_NOT_EXPECTED_MAX_DRAWDOWN", "expected_max_drawdown_target": 0.11, "study_production_labelled_expected_max_drawdown": 0.10251155801473733, "study_production_labelled_p95_max_drawdown": 0.1876321103559252, "current_composition_conservative_expected_max_drawdown": 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"covariance_halflife_has_one_duration_across_live_sleeves", "production_shrinkage_is_inside_simulation" ], "objective_status": "MODELED_CURRENT_COMPOSITION_WITHIN_OBJECTIVE_LIVE_EXPECTED_MAX_DRAWDOWN_NOT_ESTABLISHED" }, "diversification_evidence": { "study_status": "CURRENT_COMPOSITION_DIVERSIFICATION_OBJECTIVE_GAP_RESEARCH_ONLY", "current_sleeves": 4, "target_total_sleeves": 14, "average_pairwise_correlation": 0.024827414293607856, "average_pairwise_correlation_objective": -0.03, "active_v7_has_no_global_average_correlation_point_gate": true, "active_v7_candidate_average_correlation_gate": 0.0, "historical_v6_global_average_correlation_point_gate": 0.0, "average_pairwise_upper_95": 0.04870778381377487, "average_pairwise_upper_95_gate": 0.1, "maximum_pairwise_correlation": 0.20975189522943685, "maximum_pairwise_upper_95": 0.3025187934584474, "stressed_pairwise_design_value_not_observed": 0.5, "diversification_ratio_sleeves_only": 1.8153132626773805, 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"ordinary_pairwise_upper_95": true, "stressed_pairwise_design": true }, "passes_all_active_v7_risk_comparisons": true, "live_forward_diversification_established": false, "failed_establishment_dimensions": [ "RESEARCH_CURVES_END_BEFORE_BROKER_RECONCILED_FORWARD_RECORD", "RETURN_DATA_WERE_KNOWN_BEFORE_PROTOCOL", "NO_HUMAN_INDEPENDENT_REPLICATION", "NO_CRISIS_COMPLETE_FORWARD_CORRELATION_WINDOW" ], "objective_status": "CURRENT_COMPOSITION_AVERAGE_CORRELATION_OBJECTIVE_GAP_LIVE_FORWARD_NOT_ESTABLISHED" }, "source_bindings": { "contract": { "path": "config/forward_evidence_contract.json", "sha256": "d1b0c97921d9c8b96de7af275b18b9d0ffbfe1332a078061135e8d044ba3981a" }, "paper_state": { "path": "data/paper/state.json", "sha256": "db5855959b9a81b43ed9e2be60e76bb01518e0e03a66ffb26aef940bb620e5af" }, "record_continuity": { "path": "artifacts/engineering/record_continuity.json", "sha256": "f01b98b1e22a70d36f732a033cb604d95b8fed4c19bae5a1d6b596dccef44170" }, "broker_reconciliation": { "path": "artifacts/engineering/alpaca_broker_reconciliation.json", "sha256": "e1bde36ab2aafb64e29e90138d9571b0311b313db44fb130a6c9950ace440095" }, "drawdown_model": { "path": "artifacts/analysis/drawdown_live_estimator/result.json", "sha256": "9671ed7551aab242dc3529510cf9105201835096f36bb971153c132081754324" }, "current_book_drawdown": { "path": "artifacts/analysis/current_book_drawdown/result.json", "sha256": "8c99fd77e1212ff9bdd7ddb66df7bb5b04b170673c8687b0de3ff4b6c6b70ce7" }, "current_book_diversification": { "path": "artifacts/analysis/current_book_diversification/result.json", "sha256": "043431eb3548d925cfb52efcf6fb9a3c2fcbc0aeed869e6d3fa1ae0c6f7ac04b" }, "drawdown_evidence": { "path": "artifacts/engineering/forward_drawdown_evidence.json", "sha256": "70fb9676df7619b5c437fe913b29bb213e5dcdb8c00b9cea4e2ba3ee445871d2" }, "methodology_paper": { "path": "docs/research/FORWARD_SHARPE_EVIDENCE_STANDARD.md", "sha256": "aeba2fc6ff13effd1a363119f883bf4f56948e0bb5395f659632d2a67517571c" }, "transparency_chain": { "path": "meridian/public/glassbox/transparency_log.json", "sha256": "50d818dc751a26cb415c3a64e13045b6914c62a394711589518a9e85445f314a" }, "crypto_position_attribution": { "path": "artifacts/engineering/crypto_position_attribution.json", "sha256": "5388e6134495c38f0a086c44639995ac7a9af0633917e22e624f4d9e6d8e545c" }, "crypto_position_attribution_rollout": { "path": "artifacts/engineering/crypto_position_attribution_rollout_verification.json", "sha256": "e915f597a517eb026700c5c7f7e583a73120bfafa60ba2515bb8b74f86be0aa9" } }, "claim_boundary": "Paper-only, self-published evidence. An immature or observed Sharpe is not an established Sharpe. Realized maximum drawdown is not expected maximum drawdown, and the modeled expectation is not a live guarantee.", "content_hash": "sha256:af68175c3c8eaf435f219ae56ad9116524e422bad9218de851a53ab755aff899" }, "forward_sleeve_contribution": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "Descriptive arithmetic attribution of the published paper curve only. It is not a Sharpe estimate, evidence of expected sleeve performance, permission to reweight, or a return trial. The strategic-overlay residual is not alpha.", "content_hash": "sha256:316114fb19b13409044e71409b1af568be6795794c0e6c7f95292360bf8c515e", "daily": [ { "book_return": 0.0, "date": "2026-08-08", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": 0.0, "equity": 0.0, "macro_surprise": 0.0, "managed_futures": 0.0 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": 0.0 }, { "book_return": 0.0002161999999998887, "date": "2026-08-11", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": 0.0018558249999999776, "equity": -0.0013950249999999942, "macro_surprise": 0.0, "managed_futures": -8.484999999999743e-05 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": -0.00015975000000009731 }, { "book_return": -0.0010284776431335185, "date": "2026-08-12", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": -0.002024496554725308, "equity": -4.7691121225545974e-05, "macro_surprise": 0.0008190499999999878, "managed_futures": 9.940873932612337e-05 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": 0.00012525129349122421 }, { "book_return": 0.0018465002814787024, "date": "2026-08-13", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": -0.0013818904130755427, "equity": 0.0021428136059435388, "macro_surprise": 0.0004044997778278603, "managed_futures": 0.0003322056988488975 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": 0.00034887161193394856 }, { "book_return": -0.0017116327391967223, "date": "2026-08-14", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": 0.0004135128877051364, "equity": -0.0014885036379882477, "macro_surprise": -0.00054264132880949, "managed_futures": 5.018039978599287e-06 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": -9.901870008272029e-05 }, { "book_return": 0.00032962444128203927, "date": "2026-08-15", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": -0.002176066677288979, "equity": 0.0014038682094452692, "macro_surprise": 0.0009009509450461084, "managed_futures": 0.00020084239466644505 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": 2.956941319576245e-08 }, { "book_return": 0.00011684106963594232, "date": "2026-08-16", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": 0.00011682630140852357, "equity": 0.0, "macro_surprise": 0.0, "managed_futures": 0.0 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": 1.4768227418748836e-08 }, { "book_return": -0.0005168212979586029, "date": "2026-08-17", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": -0.0002804193024511237, "equity": 0.0, "macro_surprise": 0.0, "managed_futures": 0.0 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": -0.0002364019955074792 }, { "book_return": 0.0018329772991425575, "date": "2026-08-18", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": -0.00019869176292960922, "equity": 0.0017696400263772505, "macro_surprise": 0.00016711683292558455, "managed_futures": 0.00043266811120523663 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": -0.00033775590843590497 }, { "book_return": -0.009422222115670675, "date": "2026-08-19", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": -0.0059041162847864315, "equity": -0.002444044148123048, "macro_surprise": -0.0007331148239044794, "managed_futures": -0.000445790864668949 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": 0.00010484400581223241 }, { "book_return": -0.0014809693522236378, "date": "2026-08-20", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": 0.0013513460134967903, "equity": -0.0022417841596725774, "macro_surprise": 0.0003538662753985733, "managed_futures": -0.0005244443504248963 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": -0.00041995313102152765 }, { "book_return": -0.0023737117483380032, "date": "2026-08-21", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": -0.002131826144638499, "equity": 3.6970974378269794e-05, "macro_surprise": -0.000625800121097253, "managed_futures": 0.00014239236776908415 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": 0.0002045511752503948 }, { "book_return": -0.0029055642030278994, "date": "2026-08-22", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": -0.0031335553621545387, "equity": -0.000343413352092814, "macro_surprise": 0.00044528378565794613, "managed_futures": 0.00012609641671307292 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": 2.4308848434184682e-08 }, { "book_return": -0.001979575588253124, "date": "2026-08-23", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": -0.0019795299584584314, "equity": 0.0, "macro_surprise": 0.0, "managed_futures": 0.0 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": -4.5629794692692016e-08 }, { "book_return": -0.0012325423739848462, "date": "2026-08-24", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": -0.0010856543118281659, "equity": 0.0, "macro_surprise": 0.0, "managed_futures": 0.0 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": -0.00014688806215668038 }, { "book_return": -0.004349981849612106, "date": "2026-08-25", "sleeve_contributions": { "crypto": -0.002629956184502319, "equity": -0.0006497444229112137, "macro_surprise": -0.00043416605432056166, "managed_futures": -0.0006360326188092347 }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": -8.256906877668335e-08 } ], "decision": "MONITOR_ONLY_NO_WEIGHT_CHANGE", "largest_loss_driver": { "absolute_share_of_negative_book_return": 0.8468331097660954, "additive_contribution": -0.01918869275422852, "dominates_current_loss": true, "sleeve": "crypto" }, "record": { "book_additive_return": -0.022659355819860005, "daily_return_observations": 16, "first_mark": "2026-08-07", "last_mark": "2026-08-25" }, "schema": "canli.alphac-forward-sleeve-contribution.v1", "sleeve_additive_contributions": { "crypto": -0.01918869275422852, "equity": -0.0032569130258691126, "macro_surprise": 0.0007550452887242765, "managed_futures": -0.00035248606539561855 }, "source_bindings": { "committed_weight_schedule": { "path": "scripts/paper_trading_state.py", "schedule": [ [ "2026-08-07", { "crypto": 0.3333333333333333, "equity": 0.3333333333333333, "mf": 0.3333333333333333 } ], [ "2026-08-10", { "crypto": 0.25, "equity": 0.25, "mf": 0.25, "vintage": 0.25 } ] ] }, "paper_state": { "path": "data/paper/state.json", "sha256": "db5855959b9a81b43ed9e2be60e76bb01518e0e03a66ffb26aef940bb620e5af" } }, "strategic_overlay_and_rounding_residual": -0.0006163092630910305 }, "crypto_lab_carry_crash_incident": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "Forensic description of one paper-traded LABUSDT episode. It spends zero return hypotheses, does not estimate Sharpe or expected performance, does not authorize a strategy change, and does not rewrite the published equity record.", "content_hash": "sha256:7afd370ac570341463c730a34d29c7f89a731c9335ce1f5a5f36df00a16358ef", "decision": "PRESERVE_LOSS_NO_PRICE_JUMP_GUARD_NO_WEIGHT_CHANGE", "execution_sequence": { "long_close": { "client_order_id": "rb-1785369600000-BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT-close", "fee_quote": 0.0088521, "instrument_id": "BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT", "price": 0.1553, "qty": 114.0, "side": "sell", "ts": 1785369600000 }, "long_entry": { "client_order_id": "rb-1783267200000-BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT", "fee_quote": 0.920574, "instrument_id": "BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT", "price": 16.15042105263158, "qty": 114.0, "side": "buy", "ts": 1783267200000 }, "short_reversal": { "client_order_id": "rb-1785369600000-BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT-open", "fee_quote": 0.42451255000000004, "instrument_id": "BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT", "price": 0.1553, "qty": 5467.0, "side": "sell", "ts": 1785369600000 } }, "forward_record_relation": { "classification": "PRE_FLAGSHIP_WINDOW_DOES_NOT_EXPLAIN_CURRENT_FORWARD_LOSS", "flagship_forward_record_starts": "2026-08-07", "lab_long_closed_utc": "2026-07-30T00:00:00Z" }, "funding_regime_while_held": { "first_nonnegative_settlement": "2026-07-08T06:00:00Z", "interpretation": "The carry signal entered long during negative funding; funding later changed sign and the scheduled rebalance closed the long and opened a short.", "maximum_rate": 0.0007515, "mean_rate": -0.0017057643438914028, "minimum_rate": -0.02, "negative_observations": 68, "nonnegative_observations": 153, "observations": 221 }, "independent_market_context": [ { "supports": "independent dated prices during the July 2026 collapse", "url": "https://chartexchange.com/symbol/crypto-labusdt/historical/" }, { "supports": "contemporaneous venue response to LABUSDT market risk", "url": "https://phemex.com/announcements/phemex-will-delist-labusdt694" } ], "instrument": "BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT", "long_episode": { "absolute_gross_price_loss_quote_rounded_2dp": 1823.44, "absolute_net_price_loss_quote_rounded_2dp": 1824.37, "close_price": 0.1553, "entry_and_close_fees_quote": 0.9294261, "entry_price": 16.15042105263158, "gross_price_pnl_quote": -1823.4438, "gross_price_pnl_quote_rounded_2dp": -1823.44, "net_price_pnl_after_entry_and_close_fees_quote": -1824.3732261, "net_price_pnl_after_entry_and_close_fees_quote_rounded_2dp": -1824.37, "price_return": -0.990384151627137, "quantity": 114.0 }, "observability_correction": { "historical_gap": "Position snapshots retained quantity and average entry but not the exact cycle mark or instrument-level unrealized PnL. Historical attribution cannot be fabricated from aggregate equity.", "prospective_fix": "Future paper cycles persist exact order-book mark, mark source, market value, and unrealized PnL through an additive nullable schema migration." }, "schema": "canli.alphac-crypto-lab-carry-crash-incident.v1", "source_bindings": { "paper_execution_database": { "path": "var/trading_crypto_perp.sqlite", "sha256": "b5d117cf821735f8b0f5d7d6f8a6750b4f601f60f3408aa5c4d60f2588eab266" }, "point_in_time_funding": { "path": "data/lake/funding/instrument_id=BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT/year=2026/data.parquet", "sha256": "909f472cbf8cfaa57cd9a852183dfd9b20d3600d8f497c8e1908bc069dcf01c0" } }, "verdict": "GENUINE_MARKET_CRASH_NOT_CONTRACT_IDENTITY_DEFECT" }, "crypto_position_attribution": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "Latest-cycle arithmetic attribution for the locally simulated crypto paper account. It is not Alpaca attestation, a Sharpe estimate, a return trial, or permission to change the strategy. Historical rows without marks remain explicitly unavailable.", "content_hash": "sha256:ccdf08a068a7d34458ce29c5fea435b652a651fc6d35329609913e480dcbb2f2", "historical_boundary": "No historical mark backfill. Completeness begins only with a cycle genuinely persisted by the mark-aware runtime.", "latest_cycle": null, "missing_columns": [ "mark_price", "mark_source", "market_value_quote", "unrealized_pnl_quote" ], "passes": false, "positions": [], "schema": "canli.alphac-crypto-position-attribution.v1", "source_binding": { "binding_scope": "latest equity row and same-cycle position snapshot rows", "path": "var/trading_crypto_perp.sqlite", "query_payload_sha256": "8811a9c4fc7deb2a596610c1d1bf3ce579e2de254a24a0874f5fed5aaa344774" }, "status": "SCHEMA_NOT_YET_MIGRATED" }, "crypto_position_attribution_rollout_verification": { "attribution": null, "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "No deployment is claimed and Frankfurt was not queried. Natural-cycle verification cannot begin until a valid hash-bound deployment receipt exists.", "content_hash": "sha256:c87e5bca158135a30707680b177ca966a8c2367bc4a272a7c180eb2167b83f4d", "deployment_boundary_cycle_ts": null, "natural_cycle_after_deployment": false, "passes": false, "remote_query_performed": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-crypto-position-attribution-rollout-verification.v1", "source_binding": null, "status": "NO_DEPLOYMENT_RECEIPT" }, "crypto_position_attribution_preflight_observation": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "authority": "FRANKFURT_CRYPTO_PAPER_HOST_SOLE_REMOTE_WRITER", "claim_boundary": "This receipt proves only a successful read-only preflight at the stated instant. It does not claim deployment, schema migration, position-attribution completeness, a natural marked cycle, mature forward evidence, or real-capital trading.", "content_hash": "sha256:434563159eba71fb67eecd48b0406a9a85bba6469ea43268d6466ea9ddc151cd", "deployment_authorized": false, "forced_cycle_run": false, "observed_at_utc": "2026-08-24T00:40:06.906993+00:00", "passes_read_only_preflight": true, "remote_mutations_performed": false, "remote_query_performed": true, "remote_snapshot": { "database_exists": true, "database_sha256": "1364e892eaa6a06cd5dccdafdeb9784e446fbecc28aef9e049b56f981d09ea41", "files": { "src/alphaforge/execution/paper.py": "f6f0872748a2791ff989660b74d02fc9482bac3d9a492114a702d4813d3a96a2", "src/alphaforge/live/loop.py": "c54e33eda08d8c0b9b020d570306045fd9846a59caccd4dea2e68b561187ab28", "src/alphaforge/live/store.py": "aa815f09a2eee9528ca878e510dd4e69041a1de378d8e0b28ce5f54044c6a8d5" }, "latest_equity_cycle_ts": 1787529600000, "position_snapshot_columns": [ "cycle_ts", "instrument_id", "qty", "avg_entry_price", "opened_ts" ], "service_state": "inactive", "timer_state": "active" }, "schema": "canli.alphac-crypto-position-attribution-vps-preflight-observation.v1", "source_bindings": { "deployment_tool_sha256": "ff202f703949e58c47b58f7f34f41e7d404df3184103964aacc2e699145df812", "preflight_contract_path": "artifacts/engineering/crypto_position_attribution_vps_preflight.json", "preflight_contract_sha256": "c53f6bf71fdd6c7cea2439a5fa709e9d32d19424f1157a36c5709d557c82a377" }, "status": "PASS_READ_ONLY_PREFLIGHT_DEPLOYMENT_NOT_AUTHORIZED" }, "factor_research": { "summary": "Most ideas die. We publish every test with its real net-of-cost Sharpe and its real Rank-IC. 2 kept, 8 killed. The Rank-IC is the cross-sectional information coefficient with a Newey-West t-stat; the net Sharpe is the purged walk-forward result after the conservative cost model.", "kept_count": 2, "killed_count": 8, "equity_factors": [ { "name": "k30_dn_63", "readable_name": "US Equity Momentum (12-1)", "family": "momentum", "asset_class": "us_equity", "deployed": true, "verdict": "KEEP", "reason": "The one equity survivor. Net Sharpe clears the 0.40 gate, turnover is clean at ~4x, and it is decorrelated from the crypto sleeve. Deployed as the frozen 2023+ k30_dn_63 sleeve; capacity $1B+ at Reg-T 2x gross.", "performance": { "net_sharpe": 0.9071, "sortino": 1.2837, "cagr_pct": 7.84, "total_return_pct": 24.54, "final_equity_usd": 124536.21, "vol_ann_pct": 13.07, "max_drawdown_pct": -8.68, "profit_factor": 1.137, "turnover_ann": 4.11, "fees_paid_usd": 86.59, "n_days": 729, "period_start": "2023-07-06", "period_end": "2026-06-01" }, "source_path": "artifacts/walkforward/k30_dn_63/summary.txt", "rank_ic": { "h5": { "horizon_bars": 5, "mean_rank_ic": 0.0248, "t_nw": 1.85, "hit_rate": 0.548, "ic_ir": 0.105, "n_obs": 197 }, "h21": { "horizon_bars": 21, "mean_rank_ic": 0.031, "t_nw": 1.49, "hit_rate": 0.574, "ic_ir": 0.139, "n_obs": 47 }, "h63": { "horizon_bars": 63, "mean_rank_ic": 0.0131, "t_nw": 0.6, "hit_rate": 0.667, "ic_ir": 0.07, "n_obs": 15 } }, "rank_ic_source": [ "artifacts/research/equity_ic/ic_report.json", "artifacts/research/lev10_ic_500/ic_report.json" ] }, { "name": "eq_value_btp", "readable_name": "Equity Value (Book-to-Price)", "family": "value", "asset_class": "us_equity", "deployed": false, "verdict": "KILL", "reason": "The value premium inverted across 2022-2026. Net Sharpe is below the 0.30 gate; the narrow top-200 universe is too small for the small/mid-cap value signal. KILLED, never re-tuned.", "performance": { "net_sharpe": -0.3219, "sortino": -0.4596, "cagr_pct": -1.6, "total_return_pct": -6.11, "final_equity_usd": 93892.5, "vol_ann_pct": 6.61, "max_drawdown_pct": -12.23, "profit_factor": 0.955, "turnover_ann": 3.48, "fees_paid_usd": 89.46, "n_days": 981, "period_start": "2022-07-05", "period_end": "2026-06-01" }, "source_path": "artifacts/walkforward/eq_value_btp/summary.txt", "rank_ic": { "h21": { "horizon_bars": 21, "mean_rank_ic": 0.0002, "t_nw": 0.01, "hit_rate": 0.511, "ic_ir": 0.001, "n_obs": 47 }, "h63": { "horizon_bars": 63, "mean_rank_ic": 0.0184, "t_nw": 0.47, "hit_rate": 0.6, "ic_ir": 0.199, "n_obs": 15 } }, "rank_ic_source": [ "artifacts/research/equity_ic/ic_report.json", "artifacts/research/lev10_ic_500/ic_report.json" ] }, { "name": "eq_quality_gp", "readable_name": "Equity Quality (Gross Profitability)", "family": "quality", "asset_class": "us_equity", "deployed": false, "verdict": "KILL", "reason": "Quality via GP/A + ROE fails on the narrow top-200 / 5-year slice. Net Sharpe far below the 0.30 gate; the wide Sharadar fundamentals universe (20yr / 3000 names) is needed and is the data-investment path. KILLED.", "performance": { "net_sharpe": -0.8214, "sortino": -1.1286, "cagr_pct": -3.21, "total_return_pct": -11.97, "final_equity_usd": 88030.04, "vol_ann_pct": 5.59, "max_drawdown_pct": -14.05, "profit_factor": 0.892, "turnover_ann": 3.77, "fees_paid_usd": 98.32, "n_days": 981, "period_start": "2022-07-05", "period_end": "2026-06-01" }, "source_path": "artifacts/walkforward/eq_quality_gp/summary.txt", "rank_ic": { "h21": { "horizon_bars": 21, "mean_rank_ic": -0.0051, "t_nw": -0.38, "hit_rate": 0.468, "ic_ir": -0.039, "n_obs": 47 }, "h63": { "horizon_bars": 63, "mean_rank_ic": -0.015, "t_nw": -0.87, "hit_rate": 0.467, "ic_ir": -0.136, "n_obs": 15 } }, "rank_ic_source": [ "artifacts/research/equity_ic/ic_report.json", "artifacts/research/lev10_ic_500/ic_report.json" ] }, { "name": "eq_mom_margin", "readable_name": "Equity Momentum (with Margin Costs)", "family": "momentum_variant", "asset_class": "us_equity", "deployed": false, "verdict": "KILL", "reason": "The same momentum signal once realistic margin-financing costs are charged: the edge erodes below the clean baseline. Variant killed; the deployed sleeve is the frozen k30_dn_63.", "performance": { "net_sharpe": -0.592, "sortino": -0.7732, "cagr_pct": -4.46, "total_return_pct": -12.42, "final_equity_usd": 87575.57, "vol_ann_pct": 10.33, "max_drawdown_pct": -15.07, "profit_factor": 0.905, "turnover_ann": 7.6, "fees_paid_usd": 144.29, "n_days": 729, "period_start": "2023-07-06", "period_end": "2026-06-01" }, "source_path": "artifacts/walkforward/eq_mom_margin/summary.txt" }, { "name": "deephist_quality_top800", "readable_name": "Deep-History Quality (Top 800)", "family": "quality", "asset_class": "us_equity", "deployed": false, "verdict": "KILL", "reason": "Quality on the 21-year survivorship-free wide universe. Net Sharpe far below the 0.30 minimum gate; DSR effectively zero. The wide-universe quality thesis does not replicate net of cost on the available data. KILLED.", "performance": { "net_sharpe": -0.5926, "sortino": -0.6363, "cagr_pct": -5.74, "total_return_pct": -71.16, "final_equity_usd": 28842.9, "vol_ann_pct": 12.89, "max_drawdown_pct": -72.12, "profit_factor": 0.795, "turnover_ann": 3.18, "fees_paid_usd": 321.25, "n_days": 5286, "period_start": "2005-06-16", "period_end": "2026-06-22" }, "source_path": "artifacts/walkforward/deephist_quality_top800/summary.txt" }, { "name": "prereg_momentum", "readable_name": "Pre-Registered Momentum (deep history)", "family": "momentum", "asset_class": "us_equity", "deployed": false, "verdict": "KILL", "reason": "Pre-registered momentum on 21 years of deep history. Net Sharpe ~ -0.05, failed the DSR >= 0.95 gate. The deployed momentum sleeve is the clean frozen 2023+ variant instead.", "performance": { "net_sharpe": -0.0493, "sortino": -0.0642, "cagr_pct": -0.76, "total_return_pct": -15.07, "final_equity_usd": 84925.53, "vol_ann_pct": 10.66, "max_drawdown_pct": -34.98, "profit_factor": 0.989, "turnover_ann": 3.26, "fees_paid_usd": 525.0, "n_days": 5385, "period_start": "2005-01-04", "period_end": "2026-06-01", "funding_net_usd": -2943.06 }, "source_path": "artifacts/walkforward/prereg_momentum/summary.txt" }, { "name": "prereg_value", "readable_name": "Pre-Registered Value (composite)", "family": "value", "asset_class": "us_equity", "deployed": false, "verdict": "KILL", "reason": "Pre-registered composite value (B/P, E/P, S/P) on 21 years. Net Sharpe -0.60, failed every gate. Confirms the value thesis does not replicate without small/mid-cap breadth. KILLED.", "performance": { "net_sharpe": -0.5994, "sortino": -0.6741, "cagr_pct": -4.05, "total_return_pct": -58.75, "final_equity_usd": 41251.08, "vol_ann_pct": 9.23, "max_drawdown_pct": -64.27, "profit_factor": 0.82, "turnover_ann": 2.87, "fees_paid_usd": 292.36, "n_days": 5385, "period_start": "2005-01-04", "period_end": "2026-06-01" }, "source_path": "artifacts/walkforward/prereg_value/summary.txt" }, { "name": "prereg_quality", "readable_name": "Pre-Registered Quality (GP/A + ROE)", "family": "quality", "asset_class": "us_equity", "deployed": false, "verdict": "KILL", "reason": "Pre-registered quality on 21 years. Net Sharpe -0.83, the worst sleeve in the campaign. KILLED; the wide-universe quality thesis fails to replicate on the available data.", "performance": { "net_sharpe": -0.8316, "sortino": -0.9522, "cagr_pct": -4.27, "total_return_pct": -60.75, "final_equity_usd": 39248.43, "vol_ann_pct": 7.29, "max_drawdown_pct": -64.06, "profit_factor": 0.805, "turnover_ann": 2.63, "fees_paid_usd": 321.76, "n_days": 5385, "period_start": "2005-01-04", "period_end": "2026-06-01" }, "source_path": "artifacts/walkforward/prereg_quality/summary.txt" }, { "name": "prereg_bab", "readable_name": "Pre-Registered Betting-Against-Beta", "family": "low_risk", "asset_class": "us_equity", "deployed": false, "verdict": "KILL", "reason": "Pre-registered beta-hedged low-risk anomaly on 21 years. Net Sharpe ~ -0.07, failed the DSR >= 0.95 gate. The low-risk anomaly does not survive net of cost here. KILLED.", "performance": { "net_sharpe": -0.0679, "sortino": -0.1066, "cagr_pct": -0.88, "total_return_pct": -17.22, "final_equity_usd": 82780.29, "vol_ann_pct": 10.68, "max_drawdown_pct": -34.15, "profit_factor": 0.985, "turnover_ann": 2.86, "fees_paid_usd": 379.72, "n_days": 5385, "period_start": "2005-01-04", "period_end": "2026-06-01", "funding_net_usd": 63.63 }, "source_path": "artifacts/walkforward/prereg_bab/summary.txt" } ], "crypto_factors": [ { "name": "crypto_carry_wk", "readable_name": "Crypto Funding Carry", "family": "funding_carry", "asset_class": "crypto_perp", "deployed": true, "verdict": "KEEP", "reason": "The one real crypto edge: harvest the funding paid between longs and shorts on perpetuals, market-neutral. Net Sharpe 0.68, near-uncorrelated to equity. Kept as a capacity-capped satellite: finite ~$100k to $1M proven; weight decays to zero above ~$100M AUM, and a BTC-correlation cap limits cross-sectional breadth.", "performance": { "net_sharpe": 0.6766, "sortino": 0.9593, "cagr_pct": 7.8, "total_return_pct": 38.24, "final_equity_usd": 138236.27, "vol_ann_pct": 11.83, "max_drawdown_pct": -19.6, "profit_factor": 1.109, "turnover_ann": 33.22, "fees_paid_usd": 7372.72, "n_days": 1575, "period_start": "2022-02-08", "period_end": "2026-06-01", "funding_net_usd": 19500.02 }, "source_path": "artifacts/walkforward/crypto_carry_wk/summary.txt" } ] }, "deflation_gauntlet": { "tested_configuration": "crypto-perp strategies alone", "window": { "start_date": "2021-01-01", "end_date": "2026-06-01" }, "honest_trial_count": 8, "shared_sr_benchmark": 0.02223, "best_config": { "name": "A_blend", "psr": 0.5355, "dsr_shared": 0.2112, "sr_ann": 0.0424, "max_dd": 0.1359, "turnover_ann": 39.743, "clears_dsr_gate": false, "beats_baseline": false }, "pbo_matrix_cscv": 0.8818, "gates": { "dsr_shared_min": 0.95, "pbo_max": 0.2, "rule": "deploy iff DSR(shared-SR*) >= 0.95 AND PBO < 0.20 AND beats baseline" }, "capacity_curve": [ { "initial_cash_usd": 100000, "sr_ann": 0.4009, "dsr_shared": 0.4803, "max_dd_pct": 13.14, "final_equity_usd": 118509.86 }, { "initial_cash_usd": 1000000, "sr_ann": 0.0424, "dsr_shared": 0.2112, "max_dd_pct": 13.59, "final_equity_usd": 993219.39 }, { "initial_cash_usd": 10000000, "sr_ann": -0.372, "dsr_shared": 0.046, "max_dd_pct": 22.69, "final_equity_usd": 8043578.96 } ], "capacity_note": "The edge decays as capital grows: 0.40 Sharpe at $100k, 0.04 at $1M, and -0.37 at $10M, where market impact consumes the thin signal. Crypto carry is finite-capacity alpha, not a scalable core.", "verdict": { "pass": false, "outcome": "NO-DEPLOY (honest null)", "reason": "Best config DSR 0.2112 < 0.95 gate AND PBO 0.8818 > 0.20 gate. No variant beats baseline and clears deflation at once. Crypto-perps alone is a thin cross-sectional signal that does not survive honest deflation net of cost; the equity sleeve is required as ballast." }, "source_path": "artifacts/grand_backtest/20260616T143620Z/verdict.md" }, "combined_book": { "name": "ALPHAC Cross-Asset Book", "style": "Market-neutral core (equity momentum + crypto funding carry + managed-futures trend + PIT macro surprise, four near-uncorrelated sleeves at equal quarters, measured average pairwise correlation +0.0274) PLUS a disclosed +10% strategic net-long overlay", "sleeves": [ { "key": "alphaforge", "name": "AlphaForge", "description": "Funding-rate carry on Binance USDT-M perpetuals, market-neutral.", "standalone_sharpe": 0.68, "weight_pct": 25.0 }, { "key": "alphamax", "name": "AlphaMax", "description": "12-1 cross-sectional momentum, dollar-neutral long/short, split-adjusted, survivorship-free.", "standalone_sharpe": 0.91, "weight_pct": 25.0 }, { "key": "managed_futures", "name": "AlphaTrend", "description": "Time-series momentum across a 17-market basket (equity-index, rates, commodities, FX via liquid ETFs), long/short on each market's own trend, inverse-vol weighted. THE RE-DERIVATION IS DONE (2026-08-07) AND IT WENT AGAINST US: at the honest trial count (N=133) and the pooled trial variance, its DSR is 0.000 \u2014 not the 0.83 we published, and the WORST of the 4 sleeves rather than the best. The old 0.83 rested on a V[SR] input ~80x too small and n_trials=5 while AlphaMax was graded at N=101; it was marked on an easier exam and then called the soundest. The selected 5,133-day walk-forward artifact used for this card has net Sharpe 0.3307. A separate family-wide re-derivation has net Sharpe 0.25 over 5,179 days. Both are historical simulations, and neither clears selection adjustment. Positive skew, two-decade stable, near-uncorrelated to equities. We keep it because removing it measurably worsens book drawdown, not because its edge is established.", "standalone_sharpe": 0.33, "weight_pct": 25.0 }, { "key": "alphavintage", "name": "AlphaVintage", "description": "Point-in-time CPI surprise \u2014 the standardized AR(3) residual of headline (PCPI) and core (PCPIX) inflation, differenced WITHIN a single ALFRED vintage \u2014 traded as a dollar-neutral IWM-minus-SPY size spread, monthly.", "standalone_sharpe": 0.23, "weight_pct": 25.0 } ], "correlation": 0.0274, "correlation_note": "Measured +0.0274 average pairwise correlation across the four live sleeves \u2014 POSITIVE. The prior three-sleeve book measured +0.0723; AlphaVintage lowered it without improving any standalone edge claim. In risk-off the pairwise correlations can spike, so the diversification benefit may shrink exactly in the left tail. We size on the stressed matrix.", "strategic_tilt": { "pct": 0.1, "mix": { "BTC": 0.5, "SPY": 0.5 }, "kind": "disclosed net-long market beta (commoditized), separate labelled line, NOT blended into the neutral sleeves", "honest_note": "beta dilutes risk-adjusted return and adds crash tail-risk; it buys bull-market participation, not quality. The pure-neutral core is the institutional franchise; the tilt is for near-term/family capital." }, "in_sample": { "window": "2023-07 to 2026-06 (2.9yr research window)", "sharpe": 1.78, "cagr_pct": 9.6, "max_drawdown_pct": -4.5, "label": "in-sample / research window \u2014 NOT the forward expectation" }, "honest_forward_expectation": { "sharpe_range": "0.3 to 0.9 (the +10% beta does NOT improve this \u2014 it adds bull upside + crash risk, not risk-adjusted quality; real chance of ~0 yr1)", "return_pct_range": "0 to 14 (vol-targeted; lower bound is real)", "realistic_worst_drawdown_pct": "-22 to -28 (incl. the +10% strategic-long overlay's crash tail)", "reason": "The research window is short, multiple strategies were searched, and every standalone sleeve remains below the stated deflation gate. The published forward band is therefore deliberately below the in-sample headline." }, "deflation": { "dsr_gate": 0.95, "dsr_pass": false, "note": "real but modest; no sleeve clears the multiple-testing deflation gate in-sample, so the only credible next evidence is a live record where the full book transacts through a risk-off episode" }, "ceilings": { "equity_capacity_usd": "1B+ at Reg-T 2x gross", "crypto_carry_capacity_usd": "100k to 1M proven; decays above ~100M AUM", "btc_correlation_cap": "BTC correlation caps the crypto sleeve's cross-sectional breadth, so it stays a satellite, never a scalable core.", "equity_survivor_only": "Of the equity factors tested, only 12-1 momentum survived; value and quality did not replicate on the narrow universe." }, "grade": "C+", "grade_note": "real but modest; no sleeve clears the multiple-testing deflation gate in-sample, so the only credible next evidence is a live record where the full book transacts through a risk-off episode", "source_paths": [ "data/paper/state.json", "docs/design/CROSS_ASSET_BOOK.md" ] }, "track_record": { "summary": "The live paper record begins at go-live and is shown only as it accrues. We publish no return until it is earned in the open.", "go_live_date": "2026-08-07", "live_days_accrued": 18, "live_status": "LIVE", "live_source": "paper-state.json broker-derived composite marks (three Alpaca paper accounts + local AlphaForge PaperBroker crypto)", "live_provenance": { "composite_authority": "data/paper/state.json", "alpaca_reconciliation": "artifacts/engineering/alpaca_broker_reconciliation.json", "alpaca_reconciliation_present": true, "legacy_sqlite_authoritative": false }, "live_nav_baseline_usd": 100000.0, "live_nav_current_usd": 97752.64, "live_return_pct": -2.2474, "research_curve_label": "SIMULATION (research backtest, NOT realized trading)", "research_curve_start": { "date": "2023-07-07", "nav_usd": 100138.45 }, "research_curve_end": { "date": "2026-06-01", "nav_usd": 130536.33 }, "research_curve_return_pct": 30.54, "research_curve_points": 213, "honesty_policy": [ "Research curves are simulations. No real capital has been deployed.", "2026-06-29 RE-BASELINE (v1 -> v2): on this date the flagship ALPHAC (a) folded AlphaTrend (managed-futures trend) into the book as a 3rd decorrelated sleeve at a modest 20% weight (equal quarters), and (b) gained a DISCLOSED +20% strategic net-long overlay (0.5 BTC + 0.5 SPY); all four tracks were restarted clean. v1 (2026-06-21..06-29) ran market-neutral and FLAT ($100k -> $100k, $0 realized \u2014 crypto held cash, equity/MF were days-old at baseline) and is SUPERSEDED, not deleted: it stays in the signed transparency chain (seq 0..4) as opaque historical commitments; later heads have Bitcoin-confirmed OpenTimestamps checkpoints. We re-baseline in the open and never silently rewrite 'live since'. The change is sealed into the chain itself.", "About the +20% tilt \u2014 said plainly: it is COMMODITIZED BETA (you could buy 0.5 BTC + 0.5 SPY yourself for ~free), so it DILUTES risk-adjusted return (~-0.2 Sharpe vs the neutral core) and ADDS crash tail-risk (a crypto-50%/equity-20% crash costs the overlay ~-7% on top of the neutral book). It is NOT alpha and is held as a SEPARATE labelled line \u2014 the two sleeves (AlphaForge, AlphaMax) remain genuinely market-neutral. It exists to add bull-market participation for near-term capital; the pure-neutral core stays the institutional franchise.", "What is actually live: TWO sleeves are now genuinely broker-executed on their own Alpaca paper accounts. AlphaTrend (managed-futures) submits its 17-ETF book daily; AlphaMax (equity momentum) submits its ~170-of-176 tradable long/short book daily; both fill at the US open. Crypto carry runs a real hourly broker loop but has been FLAT since go-live (the funding edge is compressed \u2014 it is honestly holding cash). Every live record here is only days old, so the headline Sharpes (0.33/0.83 for AlphaTrend, 0.91 for AlphaMax) stay BACKTEST figures until the live books confirm them. We will not call a simulation a realized record, nor a days-old live record a track record.", "Honest worst-case risk: the live-overlap curve starts 2023-07 and contains no 2022 bear or 2020 crash, so its -4.7% drawdown is a coverage artifact, NOT a risk estimate. The crisis-inclusive worst drawdown is -15% to -18%, and sleeve correlations rise to +0.6 to +0.9 in risk-off. We publish the worse number as the headline.", "Honest forward expectation is 0.3 to 0.9, NOT 0.7 to 1.0 \u2014 with a real chance of ~0 in year one. Crypto carry's standalone 0.68 hides a -19.6% 2022 drawdown; equity momentum's 0.91 is the top of a 0.07-1.17 band whose deep-history forward is ~0.08 (DSR 0.17 at the current N=102 trial ledger \u2014 it was 0.34 when first published at N=27; deflation tightens as experiments accumulate, and it fails the 0.95 gate either way). The honest central estimates are lower than the headline figures.", "DISCLOSURE 2026-07-11 \u2014 the equity sleeve's deflated confidence has decayed with our own research, and we say so: DSR 0.34 was computed at N=27 logged trials; the ledger now stands at N=102 and the same equity curve deflates to DSR 0.17. Nothing about the sleeve changed \u2014 running more experiments mechanically lowers every number's deflated confidence, including our own live record's. Also from the same campaign: six documented momentum improvements (Barroso-Santa-Clara / Daniel-Moskowitz vol-scaling x3, residual momentum, 12-7 intermediate, sector-neutral) were built and tested against the live AlphaMax construction \u2014 ALL null or worse. Vol-scaling is redundant with the book-level vol target already running (incremental alpha t between -1.64 and +0.81 across 5 configs); residual momentum screens weaker than plain 12-1 (t 2.11 vs 2.49 monthly); 12-7 and sector-neutral screen weaker than what we run (t 0.92 / 1.28 vs 1.73). The frozen 12-1 construction stays. One pre-registered follow-up (52-week-high, screen t 2.01) is in its deep-history walk-forward now; its result will be published either way.", "GATE AUDIT 2026-07-12 \u2014 we audited our own deploy gate for whether it flatters us. The deflated-Sharpe formula already corrects for fat tails and skew, but it assumed returns are serially independent; trend and momentum are not. We added the standard serial-correlation correction (Lo-2002 HAC) and re-graded every sleeve. Result: nothing crosses the 0.95 gate, and if anything the old formula was slightly too HARSH on the trend/momentum sleeves \u2014 AlphaTrend's deflated Sharpe nudges UP (~0.80 to ~0.83) because its daily returns are mildly mean-reverting, so its average is known a little better than the naive formula assumed. We are not being flattered by an assumption; the safe direction to be wrong is the one we were wrong in. No change to the live gate was warranted, so none was made. (This audit becomes load-bearing only for a future slow/smoothed signal graded near the gate, where the correction would pull a Sharpe DOWN; we will run it before deploying any such candidate.)", "DISCLOSURE 2026-08-01 \u2014 the evidence base we publish for the equity sleeve is stale in two separate ways, and both are ours to say. FIRST, the figures on the record (net Sharpe 0.907, DSR 0.341) describe the frozen k30_dn_63 walk-forward artifact. Re-run on today's data lake, that same construction measures net Sharpe 0.818, and deflated against the trial ledger as it now stands (N=111; those figures were computed at N=27) its DSR is about 0.15. Nothing about the construction changed \u2014 the lake grew, the ledger grew, and the number came down. SECOND, and the part that matters more: that construction is NOT what the live sleeve trades. The live tick runs the equity profile's default construction \u2014 a different rebalance cadence, K per side, universe and leg grid (seven parameters differ) \u2014 which is the recipe drift we disclosed on 2026-07-19 and have not closed. So our published evidence blesses one thing and our account trades another. We then ran the head-to-head we owed: both constructions re-measured from scratch on ONE matched window (the same 2022-07..2026-06 span, the same 12-leg grid, the same committed cost model). The evidenced construction scores 0.818 and the live one 0.982, and a paired bootstrap on the daily returns puts P(the evidenced construction is the better one) at about 0.37-0.39 across seeds, with a 95% interval on the Sharpe difference of roughly -1.3 to +0.9. That interval straddles zero by a mile: on the evidence we have the two are statistically INDISTINGUISHABLE. The honest statement is therefore that the drift was never shown to be a downgrade \u2014 and it was never shown to be an upgrade either. We are NOT claiming the live construction is better, and one matched window does not settle it. Separately, from the same audit: the in-sample Sharpe this state emits for the flagship now reads 1.85 \u2014 that is the book carrying the disclosed +20% net-long overlay through a bull window \u2014 while the market-neutral core, emitted alongside it, reads 1.46. At the time of writing the public pages still carry 1.46 as their struck in-sample headline, so the figure moved 1.46 -> 1.85 and the pages have not caught up. Both are in-sample and neither is earned; the honest forward band is unchanged at 0.3 to 0.9. We publish the drift, the lower re-measurement and the null head-to-head together, because reporting only the ones that flatter us is how an evidence base rots.", "PRESENTATION 2026-08-01 \u2014 we changed the order the four algorithms are listed in, and we note it so a verifier diffing the signed chain sees a documented reason rather than an unexplained reshuffle. The flagship ALPHAC now leads; the three sleeves that compose it follow (AlphaMax, AlphaTrend, AlphaForge). Previously AlphaForge led, purely because it was built first \u2014 which put our smallest-capacity sleeve (~$10M measured capacity cliff, and the one knocked out by venue unreachability in two multi-day outages between 2026-07-18 and 2026-07-29 \u2014 see the open incident below) at the top of the page and the book our published forward record actually describes at the bottom. No number, weight, cadence or metric changed with the reorder; the book's composition weights (equal quarters) and every curve are byte-identical to before it.", "OPEN INCIDENT 2026-07-20 \u2014 the crypto sleeve is HALTED on venue unreachability, and we are saying so while it is still unresolved rather than after. Since 2026-07-18 13:00 UTC the hourly carry loop has completed ZERO cycles: Binance is unreachable from our network. This is venue-specific, not a general outage and not a DNS fault \u2014 DNS resolves normally, the general internet and our other venues are fine (Bybit responds, the equity broker responds), and the failure persists when we bypass DNS entirely and connect by IP with SNI, which points to network-level filtering or an edge geo-restriction rather than a transient blip. Consequences, stated plainly: the sleeve's positions are FROZEN as of the last successful cycle and are not being managed, and its published curve stops at 2026-07-18 \u2014 we do NOT roll forward a mark we did not observe, so the book you see is stale by design, not live. We are determining whether this is transient or a persistent regional restriction. If it proves persistent it is a STRUCTURAL problem for a sleeve built on a single venue, and we will say that too \u2014 venue access is exactly the kind of risk that quietly kills a strategy, and it belongs on the record while it is inconvenient, not once it is tidy.", "CORRECTION 2026-07-19 \u2014 a reverse split was mismarked and it cost us real money and a week of half-size trading; here is everything. During the equity sleeve's July drawdown (itself genuine: a momentum junk-rally squeeze, every construction of the factor lost on the same days, and the signal verified alive \u2014 longs 97th momentum percentile, shorts 6th), an audit found the nightly simulation had marked a 1-for-20 reverse split (ALIT) at raw prices: it fabricated a -4.95% simulation day that never happened, leaked about -1.45% of real loss into the live account via an oversized short, and falsely tripped the -10% drawdown brake \u2014 so the live book traded at roughly HALF its intended size for over a week on a phantom loss. The corrected curve's true worst day is -2.49% and its maximum drawdown -7.1%; the brake should never have fired and releases on the corrected numbers at the next session. Two more defects found and fixed in the same audit: crypto perpetuals had leaked into the equity book's record through Jun 11 (~+$323 of crypto PnL inside the published equity record \u2014 the same unscoped-universe class as the 2026-07-05 crypto bug, now guarded at two layers), and the live recipe had drifted from the exact configuration our published evidence blesses (disclosed here; the strategy itself is unchanged). Fixes: split-aware marking with a sanity guard against bogus records, universe scoped to equities, an asset-class guard in the order path, and regression tests pinning the RUNNING path \u2014 because this is the third time a data defect dressed up as performance, and the lesson is permanent: it is never the strategy, always the plumbing, and a fix is not done until a test pins the path that runs.", "CORRECTION 2026-07-05 \u2014 the crypto sleeve was signal-dead, not 'carry compressed'. From go-live (06-23) to 07-05 AlphaForge held cash and we published that funding carry was compressed. An internal audit found the true cause: a wiring bug blended equity-fundamental alphas (undefined on crypto) into the live signal, invalidating it every cycle \u2014 the validated carry-only configuration was never what ran live. Fixed same day (the loop now runs the exact blessed walk-forward config: carry_fund_21, weekly rebalance, with per-cycle signal-health logging so a dead signal can never masquerade as a quiet hold again). The $100k cash equity curve was genuine; the published EXPLANATION was wrong. Per our append-only posture this correction is added to the record, not swapped into it.", "We red-team our own record. On 2026-06-27 our publishing pipeline emitted a future-dated (2026-06-29) paper mark that briefly reached the public sites and was anchored into seq 0 of the signed transparency chain. We caught it the same day, added a fail-closed guard, and appended the corrected seq 1. The signed chain retains BOTH opaque commitments; their underlying historical payloads were not published and cannot now be reconstructed from the chain. We preserve that limitation instead of deleting or fabricating a backfill.", "AlphaTrend (managed-futures trend) was the FIRST sleeve we took genuinely live: its 17-ETF book transacts on Alpaca paper, not in a simulator. We published DSR 0.83 for it and called it the first sleeve to CLEAR multiple-testing deflation, statistically real rather than a backtest fluke. RE-DERIVED 2026-08-07 at honest N=133 and pooled V[SR]=7.96e-04, its DSR is 0.000: the LOWEST of the six sleeves we have measured, not the highest. The old 0.83 rested on a variance input roughly 80x too small and a trial count of 5 while its siblings were graded at N=101, so it was marked on an easier exam and then called the soundest. Net Sharpe 0.25 over its full 5,179-day history. It is folded into ALPHAC at equal quarters for MEASURED drawdown reduction, not for a demonstrated edge. The screen suggested 0.73; the honest engine says 0.33 on the live window. We published every one of those numbers.", "STRUCTURAL VERDICT 2026-08-05 \u2014 the crypto sleeve's venue unreachability is STRUCTURAL, and we said we would say so. The 2026-07-20 note above promised: 'if it proves persistent it is a STRUCTURAL problem for a sleeve built on a single venue, and we will say that too.' It has proved persistent, so here is the number we had not put on the record until now: across its entire live history the hourly loop has completed 604 of 1375 expected cycles \u2014 an uptime of 43.9%. It has been dark for roughly 772 hours of a 57.3-day record, with 8 separate outages longer than a day and a longest single outage of 165 hours. As of this publish it has been dark 0 hours; its last observed cycle was 2026-08-25 14:00 UTC. WHAT THIS MEANS, stated plainly rather than buried: this sleeve carries 40% of the flagship's weight, so for most of the forward record our largest single position has not been managed. The published curve is not wrong \u2014 we never roll forward a mark we did not observe, so the sleeve's line simply stops when the venue does \u2014 but a 40%-weight sleeve that is dark most of the time is not meaningfully 'live', and describing it as live without this number attached would have been a half-truth. The forward track record is the whole basis on which this book asks to be believed, and it is being accrued on a book whose biggest sleeve is mostly absent. WHAT WE ARE DOING: the diagnosis is unchanged and venue-specific (the general internet and our equity broker respond normally from the same machine while the exchange endpoint fails on connect). Two fixes are real \u2014 hosting the loop somewhere with unobstructed access, and removing the single-venue dependency altogether by adding a second exchange. We flag the first honestly: our own deploy runbook records that reaching a venue from a different region is a COMPLIANCE decision and not merely an operations one, so it will not be done as a silent infrastructure tweak. Until one of those lands, read this sleeve's contribution to the live record as what it is \u2014 43.9% of the intended trading.", "CORRECTION 2026-08-06 \u2014 our crypto carry sleeve is a strategy that earns funding, and its LIVE paper account has never once booked funding. We found this ourselves and are publishing it before the fix rather than after. The mechanism, stated plainly so anyone can check it: funding is applied in exactly one place in this codebase, Ledger.apply_funding, and it is called from exactly one call site, the BACKTEST engine. The live paper broker's cash moves on one line and only one line, a fill: cash - qty*price - fee. No funding cashflow can reach the live account by any path. The size of what is missing is not marginal. Our committed walk-forward artifact for this sleeve reports funding_net of $19,500 against a total return of $38,236 on a $100k book over 2022-02 to 2026-06: about HALF of everything this strategy has ever earned is the funding it is designed to harvest. Removing it takes the sleeve's backtested Sharpe from 0.653 to roughly 0.30. So AlphaForge's live record has been running against a hard ceiling of about half its validated Sharpe, and every live number we have published for this sleeve should be read in that light. What we are NOT doing: we are not restating the historical live curve. The marks we published were the marks we observed, and this record is append-only, so the fix applies FORWARD from the day it ships and the understated period stays visible in the chain. One number we are deliberately NOT putting on the record yet: our internal estimate of what funding would have added over the live window is dominated by a single name that redenominated roughly 100x inside the window, which makes the naive figure meaningless. We would rather publish no number than a number we cannot stand behind, so that one waits for the corrected accounting. This is the fourth time a defect in our plumbing, not our strategy, has moved a published number, and the lesson we wrote down in July holds: a fix is not done until a test pins the path that actually runs.", "CORRECTION 2026-08-06 \u2014 a factual claim in our 2026-07-20 incident note above is now false and we are marking it rather than editing it. That note said 'Bybit responds' as evidence the Binance failure was venue-specific. Re-measured from the same network on 2026-08-06: Bybit does NOT respond, and neither do Kraken or Deribit. Binance, Bybit and Kraken all fail on connection reset in under a tenth of a second and Deribit times out. The conclusion the original note drew is unchanged and if anything strengthened, since the block is clearly broader than one venue, but the supporting fact it cited is no longer true and a reader checking our work today would find it wrong. One venue does answer: OKX responds normally and serves funding rates, 436 perpetual instruments and hourly candles. We are evaluating it, and we note in advance that moving venue is not a configuration change: the same carry signal computed on OKX has a cross-sectional rank correlation of only about 0.64 with the Binance one, so it would be a materially different strategy wearing the same name, and we will not splice the two curves together and call it one continuous record.", "FIXED 2026-08-06 \u2014 the funding gap disclosed above is now closed in the live path, forward only. Earlier today we published that our crypto carry sleeve had never once booked funding in live paper, which is roughly half of everything that strategy has ever earned. That is fixed: the live broker gained a funding path with the identical sign convention the backtest ledger uses (payment = -position * mark * rate, longs pay shorts on a positive rate), and the live loop now settles every stored funding event for the window just closed, before the strategy re-decides, so a settlement is charged against the position that was actually held through it. It is point-in-time by construction: the reader filters on each event's stored publication time, never on the settlement time, so a rate not yet knowable at the moment of the cycle stays invisible. Nine tests pin the running path rather than the intention, including one that asserts the live broker and the backtest ledger return identical figures for the same event, because two conventions would be worse than none. Three things we are deliberately NOT doing. We are not restating the historical curve: the marks we published are the marks we observed, the understated period stays in the signed chain, and the fix applies from today. We are not claiming an improvement yet: the sleeve has been dark on venue unreachability since 2026-08-03, so this books nothing until it trades again, and any future gain will show up in the forward record or not at all. And we are not putting a number on what it would have earned over the live window, because our own measurement of that is dominated by a single instrument that redenominated roughly 100x inside the window, which makes the figure meaningless. We would rather publish no number than one we cannot stand behind.", "RE-DERIVATION 2026-08-06 \u2014 we said we would recompute our deflated Sharpes honestly and publish whatever came back. Here it is, and it is bad. Deflated Sharpe is the probability a result beats what the best of N random trials would produce, so it needs two inputs we had both got wrong: N, and the variance of Sharpe across our own trials. Using the honest N of 127 distinct hypotheses and a V[SR] of 7.96e-04 pooled across all 171 trials in every ledger, on each sleeve's full history: **AlphaMax 0.213** (annual Sharpe 0.699 over 728 days), **AlphaForge 0.052** (0.512 over 1,574 days), and **AlphaTrend 0.000** (0.249 over 5,177 days). Our deploy gate is 0.95. Nothing is close. AlphaTrend deserves the full explanation because its published 0.83 was the single best number on this site. We reproduced it exactly from its original inputs, n_trials=5 and V[SR]=1.0e-05, which returns 0.805. Then we corrected one input at a time. Holding N at 5 and using the honest pooled variance instead takes it to **0.098**; using the honest N as well takes it to **0.000**. So that 0.83 was not mainly about trial count. It rested on a Sharpe-variance input roughly EIGHTY TIMES smaller than the one measured across our own trial history, and a smaller variance means a lower bar to clear. Our other sleeves were graded against the larger, correct-order variance. We were, without noticing, grading one sleeve on an easier exam and then calling it the soundest. The honest position: **not one of our three sleeves is statistically distinguishable from luck once its own search is accounted for**, and the sleeve we called 'statistically real, not a backtest fluke' scores zero. That does not mean the strategies are worthless; it means our BACKTEST evidence cannot carry them, which is why the only thing that can settle it is a long forward record we have not yet earned. We publish this in full because a number that only survives on a favourable input is not evidence, and finding that out about our own best figure is exactly what this record exists to make impossible to hide.", "CORRECTION 2026-08-06 \u2014 we have been counting our own experiments in one place while running them in four, so every deflated Sharpe we publish is more flattering than it should be. Our honesty machinery penalises a result for how many ideas we tried before we picked it, and that count is read from a trial ledger. It reads ONE ledger, var/experiments.jsonl, which holds 127 rows and 101 distinct hypotheses. But research run under other data profiles writes to its own ledger, and those were never totalled anywhere: 35 more rows under the managed-futures profile, 12 under Sharadar, 1 under futures. Deduplicated across all four, the honest count is **127 distinct hypotheses, not 101** \u2014 our real search was 26% larger than the number we deflate against. Which directory a trial landed in is a filing convention. Multiple-testing correction does not care about filing conventions: those were all real hypotheses about the same markets, spent by the same researcher, hunting sleeves for the same book. The consequence is one-directional and it is against us: an undercounted N makes a deflated Sharpe look better, so every DSR on this record computed against N=101 (and the earlier N=93, and the N=27 our equity sleeve was first published at) reads better than the truth. We are not restating those figures today because re-deriving each one properly is its own piece of work and we would rather publish the error immediately than a hasty replacement. Treat every DSR on this site as an upper bound until they are re-derived. Fixed at the source: the audit now counts the union of every ledger, which also closes the evasion this revealed \u2014 a future search can no longer duck the budget by writing to a directory nobody adds up.", "CORRECTION 2026-08-06 \u2014 our social card has been advertising a forward Sharpe we stopped believing weeks ago. The image that unfurls whenever this site is shared on LinkedIn, X, Slack or anywhere else read 'FORWARD EXPECTATION 0.7 TO 1.0 SHARPE, AFTER DEFLATION'. Our published expectation is 0.3 to 0.9, so the FLOOR was overstated by a factor of 2.3, and the words 'after deflation' made it a specific technical claim rather than loose marketing. The same card said 'three quant algorithms' when we publish four, and called the book market-neutral without mentioning the +20% net-long overlay we disclose everywhere else. It went stale when we lowered the band on 2026-07-29 and nothing pointed at it, because it is an image rather than a number in an artifact, and our freshness checks only ever look at artifacts. Replaced with a card that carries NO performance figure at all: a picture that travels across the internet for months and cannot be corrected in a reader's cache has no business quoting a Sharpe ratio. Note for anyone verifying: the social platforms cache these aggressively, so the old card may keep appearing on previously-shared links for some time. That is the clearest possible argument for never putting a number on one. Also corrected in the same pass: our app manifest still named the firm 'Canli Capital / AlphaForge' and described it as an engine for crypto perpetual futures, which describes ONE 40% sleeve rather than the book.", "CORRECTION 2026-08-06 \u2014 the decorrelation we call 'the edge' was measured on a basket containing a strategy we do not trade, and correcting it removes our headline claim. We publish an average pairwise sleeve correlation of -0.04 and describe this book as 'three near-uncorrelated sleeves; that decorrelation is the edge'. That -0.04 was computed over FOUR equity curves, and one of them, prereg_investment, is not a sleeve. The book is and always has been three sleeves: AlphaForge, AlphaMax and AlphaTrend. The script's own comment described its inputs as 'the four curves that make up the live book', which was simply not true of the book. Recomputed on the three sleeves we actually trade, over the identical 728-day window: average pairwise correlation is **+0.072, positive**, not -0.040; average sleeve Sharpe is 0.529; and the worst pair, AlphaMax against AlphaTrend, correlates at **+0.21** because momentum and trend are close cousins and always were. Why this matters more than a third decimal place: a book of N sleeves has effective breadth N/(1+(N-1)*rho), which converges to 1/rho, so its Sharpe can never exceed s/sqrt(rho). At a NEGATIVE rho that ceiling does not exist, and we have been reasoning and planning as though it did not. At the true +0.072 the ceiling is **1.97** \u2014 meaning no number of additional sleeves of this quality, not fifty and not two hundred, can take this book past a Sharpe of about 2. Our stated goal is 2.5. On the correlation we have now measured rather than assumed, that goal is unreachable by adding sleeves, and it was our own measurement error that hid the ceiling. Fixed at the source, and the corrected figure is now what the analysis emits. We are stating this in full because it is the single most load-bearing number in our research, we got it wrong, and the error ran in the direction that flattered the plan.", "CORRECTION 2026-08-06 \u2014 for six weeks our two public sites published two different track records for the same book, and the stale one was the flattering one. app.canlicapital.com was serving glass-box artifacts last generated 2026-06-24: a track record reading 0.00% return over '3 days live' with NAV at a clean $100,000, while canlicapital.com served the truth for the identical book, -2.54% over 38 days with NAV $97,459. Anyone who opened the dashboard saw a flat, unblemished record. Anyone who opened the landing page saw a loss. Both were live at the same time. The cause was mundane and that is the point: our publisher copies paper-state.json to both sites but the three glass-box exporters wrote only to the landing site's directory, so the dashboard's copies simply stopped updating on 2026-06-24 and nothing alerted. Our health check verifies that both hosts serve the same paper-state.json; it never checked the glass-box files, so the gap was invisible to the monitor built to catch exactly this. Fixed at the source: all three exporters now write one stamped string to both directories, so the two hosts are byte-identical by construction and cannot disagree even about a content hash. We are stating this plainly because a firm whose entire claim is that its record cannot be quietly re-picked was, for six weeks, publishing two different inception stories on two different hosts, and the more favourable one was the one that was wrong.", "CORRECTION 2026-08-06 \u2014 we have said AlphaTrend 'CLEARED multiple-testing deflation' and it did not. Our deploy gate is DSR >= 0.95. AlphaTrend's DSR is 0.83. **0.83 does not clear 0.95**, and the sentence on this record calling it 'the FIRST sleeve to CLEAR multiple-testing deflation, statistically real, not a backtest fluke' was wrong when we wrote it and has been wrong every day since. What is true is narrower and we should have written it: AlphaTrend scores far better on that measure than anything else we have built, and it was the closest any sleeve had come. That is not the same as clearing. There is a second problem behind the first. AlphaTrend's 0.83 was computed at n_trials=5, while AlphaMax was graded against N=101 on the same record. Those two numbers are not comparable, and presenting them side by side flattered the one graded against fewer trials. Re-graded against the ledger as it actually stands the figure falls, and we are re-deriving it before we publish a replacement rather than quoting a number we have not recomputed. Until that lands, treat AlphaTrend's DSR on this site as WITHDRAWN rather than merely caveated.", "DISCLOSURE 2026-08-06 \u2014 our sleeve-admission gate is not calibrated, and we have been applying it in a way that protects what we already own. Two facts sit badly together. First, to clear DSR >= 0.95 on a 21-year daily sample at our current trial ledger, a candidate must print an annualised net Sharpe of about **1.64** (and about 1.11 even at the nine trials we originally pre-registered). Essentially nothing in the published factor literature is that strong; the best-documented effects sit under 0.8. We ran the nine canonical, 25-year-replicated effects through our own gate and not one of them passes at any trial count. Second, **both sleeves we actually run also fail it** \u2014 AlphaMax at DSR 0.17, AlphaTrend at 0.83 \u2014 and we deployed them anyway, while using the same gate to kill four whole asset classes at the design stage before spending a single trial on them. A bar that incumbents are exempt from and challengers are not is not a standard, it is an incumbency advantage, and we are naming it as ours. Two construction defects behind the gate compound this and are also ours to state: there is NO beta hedge implemented anywhere in this codebase, yet our own pre-registration mandates one for betting-against-beta and kills the candidate if realised beta exceeds 0.2, so that kill was guaranteed before any data was loaded; and our fundamentals screen was run with no positive control, which means its eight null results cannot distinguish 'these factors do not work' from 'this harness does not work'. We are rebuilding the admission test to separate the two questions it currently conflates, significance of a pre-registered candidate versus deflation of a book selected from many. We will publish the replacement and re-grade every sleeve against it, including the ones we already own, and we expect that to make our own numbers look worse rather than better.", "DISCLOSURE 2026-08-06 \u2014 the sleeve we call 'crypto funding carry' is 20% commodities, and two sleeves we present as decorrelated are trading the same metals and the same crude. Our universe rule ranks Binance perpetuals purely on 30-day median quote volume and has no predicate on what the contract actually tracks. Binance lists perps on commodities, and they are liquid enough to rank in. Four of AlphaForge's twenty current members are therefore not crypto at all: XAU (gold) and XAG (silver), which entered 2026-03-01, and CL (WTI) and BZ (Brent), which entered 2026-06-01. Their prices confirm what they are \u2014 gold marks near $4,543, silver near $75.62, WTI near $89.35, Brent near $93.00. Meanwhile AlphaTrend, the sleeve we hold BECAUSE it is decorrelated, currently holds GLD, SLV, USO, DBC, DBA and UNG. So gold, silver and crude sit on both sides of a book whose entire construction rests on those sides being independent. We are not claiming this has hurt returns; carry on a gold perp may be a perfectly good trade. Two things about it are nonetheless wrong and are ours to say. First, our public description of this sleeve says 'crypto', and for a fifth of its universe that is not accurate. Second, and more consequential: the -0.04 average pairwise sleeve correlation we publish was measured on a window ending 2026-06-01, which is the very day the crude perps entered and only three months after the metals did. That figure therefore describes a book with less overlap than the one we are running now, and the honest reading is that our measured decorrelation is likely to be better than our future decorrelation. Since average correlation is the binding constraint on everything this book is trying to become, that error runs in the direction that flatters us, which is the direction we have committed to publishing fastest.", "DISCLOSURE 2026-08-06 \u2014 our crypto universe has not rebalanced since 2026-06-01 and we did not notice until we went looking for something else. The universe rebuilds monthly at a month boundary inside the live cycle. Membership rows exist for 2025-11-01 through 2026-06-01 without a gap, and then stop: the 2026-07-01 and 2026-08-01 rebalances both failed to run, because the sleeve was dark for most of that period on the venue unreachability documented above. This is a second-order cost of an outage that we had only accounted for in missed cycles: the sleeve did not merely stop trading, it froze its own definition of what it trades, and has spent over two months holding a universe selected against two-month-old liquidity. We are recording it here rather than quietly rebuilding, because an outage that silently changes what a strategy IS matters more than one that merely pauses it.", "CORRECTION 2026-08-11 \u2014 this site published a 300% one-day gain that never happened, and it stood for three days. Our flagship live curve read 100,000.00 on 2026-08-07 and 400,207.73 on 2026-08-08. ALPHAC is market-neutral and runs gross at or below 1.0x; it cannot quadruple in a session, and it did not. The cause was mundane and entirely ours. On 2026-08-07 the book moved to fresh $1M accounts, and the routine that records broker equity wrote history with INSERT OR REPLACE \u2014 merging each account's history into whatever was already stored rather than replacing it. Rows written while a profile still pointed at the SUPERSEDED account therefore survived at any timestamp the new account's history did not happen to cover. AlphaTrend's curve ended up holding $1,000,000 marks from the new account interleaved with a $100,681.45 mark from the old $100k one. The reader rebased on the first mark, turning that row into 10,068, and the step to the next day published as a +893% return; at one third weight that is +297% on the book. Two compounding defects: several marks a day meant two points shared a date, so a 'daily return' was computed between two marks of the same afternoon; and nothing rejected a step that is arithmetically impossible for the strategy. Both are fixed. The writer now REPLACES the curve, since a broker's full history is authoritative on its own and merging into it is unsound \u2014 which also self-healed the stored data, taking two sleeve curves from 68 and 52 mixed marks down to 4 and 4 clean ones. The reader keeps one mark per day and refuses to splice a superseded account into a current record. Six tests pin the exact marks that produced 400,207, and one asserts a genuine -10% day is NOT mistaken for an account switch, because a guard that trimmed real drawdowns would flatter this record rather than protect it. The corrected figure for the same window is 99,887.94, i.e. -0.11%. We are stating the wrong number here in full rather than replacing it quietly: it was public, it was flattering, and anyone who looked at this site in those three days saw it.", "ADDED 2026-08-10 \u2014 AlphaVintage joins the book as a fourth live sleeve and the weights move to equal quarters. It trades the IWM/SPY size spread off the point-in-time CPI surprise (the standardized AR(3) residual of headline and core inflation, differenced WITHIN a single ALFRED vintage), and it is the only sleeve here reading a revision-aware macro release rather than price, funding or a balance sheet. Two things must be said plainly. First, it does NOT clear our deflation gate, and the figures we published for it are WITHDRAWN: we said net Sharpe 0.3403 with a Newey-West t of 1.82 over 5,996 days; the calendar-corrected re-run of 2026-08-16 measures 0.2298 with a t of 1.267 over 6,296 portfolio days, which FAILS the t>=1.5 bar this candidate pre-registered and is recorded in its own artifact as verdict KILLED. We deployed it on 2026-08-10, six days before that correction existed, and left the superseded numbers on this page until 2026-08-19. It earns its quarter by being uncorrelated (-0.065 to equity momentum, -0.046 to managed futures), not by being better \u2014 adding it cut the book's average pairwise correlation from +0.0723 to +0.0274. Second, it runs at HALF the researched notional: the pre-registered spec sizes each leg at 1.0x NAV for 2.0x gross, which exceeds our own runaway brake and equals this account's Reg T overnight limit exactly, leaving no cushion on a month-long hold. Sharpe is scale-invariant so the measured figure applies at either notional; the dollar return, the volatility and the drawdown are all halved. A third disclosure we owe: the research modelled NO short-borrow cost while the live sleeve is short SPY on about 95% of days, and we charge it at 50bp/yr. The adjustment we published for that charge was 0.3403 -> roughly 0.3060; it is WITHDRAWN along with the figure it was computed from. We have NOT re-derived the borrow drag against the corrected 0.2298, because the calendar correction changed the day count the volatility is measured over -- 6,296 portfolio days rather than 5,998 active ones -- and rescaling the old adjustment by hand would be a number we invented rather than measured. The live sleeve is still held to a harsher standard than the study that justified it. The days before 2026-08-10 continue to compound at equal thirds; we appended a dated weight entry rather than restating three already-published days.", "CHANGE 2026-08-12 \u2014 we cut the strategic beta overlay from +20% to +10%, on measurement rather than taste, and we are showing the numbers that decided it. The overlay was never claimed to be alpha; what nobody had done was measure what it does to the book. Measured on the 4-sleeve research book over its 1,061-day common window, and then stressed by replaying the market factor's worst equal-length stretch under an UNCHANGED neutral core so that only the overlay varies. Measured window / crash stress, by overlay size: 0% gives 1.396 / 1.396; 5% gives 1.667 / 1.308; 10% gives 1.784 / 1.192; 12.5% gives 1.799 / 1.128; 20% gives 1.760 / 0.929; 30% gives 1.651 / 0.686. The SHAPE decides it, not any one cell: measured-window Sharpe is FLAT from 5% to 15% while crash-stress Sharpe falls monotonically with size and the worst day grows steadily (-0.90% at 0%, -1.26% at 10%, -2.02% at 20%). When one axis is flat and the other is monotone you take the lower number \u2014 the same upside for strictly less tail. Cutting 20% to 10% therefore costs nothing measurable in the window (1.760 to 1.784, marginally higher) while recovering +0.26 of stress Sharpe and cutting the worst day roughly in half. WE DELIBERATELY DID NOT PICK THE PEAK: 12.5% maximises the measured window, and choosing the argmax of a curve fitted to one window is the selection trap our own deflation discipline exists to prevent. And we correct ourselves in passing: an earlier internal note claimed 10% would halve the upside to 1.578. That figure was a linear interpolation, never measured, and it was wrong \u2014 the upside is essentially unchanged. We did NOT cut it to zero: equity beta has positive long-run drift and this capital is explicitly stated to want participation, so removing it entirely would trade real expected return for a cleaner-looking ratio. TWO CAVEATS THAT BOTH CUT THE SAME WAY, stated because they make our own prior numbers look better than they should. First, the crash stress ran at effectively HALF weight: the market factor is 0.5 BTC + 0.5 SPY and a missing leg contributes zero, but our BTC series begins 2020-01-01, so the pre-2020 stress was SPY-only. A real crash in which both legs fall together costs more than the -0.47 Sharpe we measured. Second, the window in which the overlay LOOKED good rose +121.6% with a worst drawdown of -28.2%, against -54.4% available in that same factor's own history \u2014 the upside is measured in a bull market and the downside is not. Every published figure that carried the +20% overlay, including the in-sample 1.80, describes a configuration we no longer run; the neutral-core figure (1.396 on the current four sleeves) is unchanged and always was the honest one.", "CORRECTION 2026-08-12 \u2014 the number we use to justify keeping AlphaTrend does not reproduce, and it overstated the case by about 3x. We publish that AlphaTrend is held 'for measured drawdown reduction (removing it makes the book's max DD 69% worse), not for a demonstrated edge'. Re-measured on the current four-sleeve book, removing it takes max drawdown from -3.68% to -4.51%, i.e. 22.7% worse \u2014 not 69%. We looked for a configuration that yields 69% and could not find one: on the three-sleeve book we previously ran at 40/40/20 it is 16.6%, at equal thirds 20.5%, and with the beta overlay applied it falls to 4.4-7.0%. The rest of the sleeve's disclosure stands and is if anything harsher than before: leave-one-out on the current book shows AlphaTrend CONTRIBUTES -0.092 Sharpe (removing it would raise the book from 1.396 to 1.488), its standalone Sharpe of 0.248 is the weakest of the four, and its re-derived DSR is 0.000. So it is held for a real but materially smaller diversification benefit than we claimed. WHAT WE DID NOT DO: change its weight. A weight sweep shows a clean monotone trade \u2014 roughly 0.13 Sharpe per 1 percentage point of drawdown, with no optimum anywhere \u2014 so any weight we picked off that curve would be a risk preference dressed as a measurement, and choosing the in-sample argmax is the selection trap our deflation discipline exists to prevent. Equal weights remain what the evidence supports: no sleeve's deflated Sharpe justifies more capital than any other's, which is exactly why they are equal.", "CURRENT EXECUTION PROVENANCE 2026-08-22 \u2014 the earlier entry saying TWO dedicated Alpaca paper sleeves is historical and is superseded on count, not deleted. There are now THREE: AlphaMax, AlphaTrend and AlphaVintage, each on a distinct dedicated paper account. A GET-only ceremony now refreshes each local public curve from Alpaca's complete portfolio history even when the US market is closed, verifies every common broker/local mark to the cent, checks fill-reconciliation health and publishes hashed account identity at /glassbox/alpaca_broker_reconciliation.json. This is self-published broker-derived evidence, not independent third-party attestation and not real capital." ], "live_config": { "fingerprint": "sha256:fe82c4eeed742289bfcfee5d39856ee2bb8ca9cfe209bcc7e34abff98553706d", "declared_fingerprint": "sha256:fe82c4eeed742289bfcfee5d39856ee2bb8ca9cfe209bcc7e34abff98553706d", "matches_declaration": true, "declared_in": "config/live_change_contract.json", "what_it_covers": "Every setting that decides how the live book trades: the BlendStrategy defaults that reach production because no call site overrides them; the constituent overlay, drawdown ladder and per-name clip read from Settings; and the flagship's sleeve composition, weights, disclosed tilt and separate aggregation policy. Derived from inspect.signature, Settings and the published state, never from a hand-maintained list.", "why": "A record that cannot say which configuration produced it cannot be read as one experiment. This stamp is what lets a reader tell a continuous forward test from a curve that changed underneath itself." }, "source_path": "data/paper/state.json" }, "corrections": [ { "title": "AlphaVintage missing-release correction protocol", "declared": "2026-08-16", "status": "REVISED RETURNS SEALED / VERDICT KILLED", "hypotheses_added": 0, "calendar_correct_net_sharpe": 0.2298358829229609, "newey_west_t": 1.2673190577321936, "verdict": "KILLED", "curve_sha256": "d277c63ddf2bed6e9314aa863dbbf6adf3f4adb55bd89e8166aee4a19aab415f", "public_path": "/research/alphavintage-missing-release-correction.md", "source_path": "docs/design/CORRECTION_ALPHAVINTAGE_MISSING_RELEASE.md" } ], "roadmap": { "summary": "The binding constraint is trustworthy evidence, not idea count. The current four-sleeve core must earn its record forward while new candidates move through one-shot, pre-registered gates. The honest path is three-step.", "steps": [ { "order": 1, "title": "Earn the current book forward", "detail": "Accrue genuinely out-of-sample paper evidence on the four equal-quarter neutral sleeves, with the +10% strategic beta overlay reported separately. Do not relabel simulations as realized performance or rescue a weak result with an unregistered configuration change." }, { "order": 2, "title": "Execute the registered discovery queue", "detail": "Test differentiated candidates across narrative, event, options, lending, power, credit, and ownership data under point-in-time, cost, capacity, deflation, and correlation gates. Publish ADD, KILL, or DATA-ESCALATE; never tune a failed one-shot identity after seeing returns." }, { "order": 3, "title": "Buy data and infrastructure only after evidence", "detail": "Escalate to historical borrow/locate, options, broker, execution, or other paid credentials only when a named candidate has cleared every key-free screen. Credentials such as Alpaca belong to approved shadow execution, not to exploratory backtest rescue." } ], "pre_arm_gates": "Phase-8 pre-arm gates (C3 / C5 / C7 / C10) must clear before live capital.", "source_paths": [ "docs/design/CROSS_ASSET_BOOK.md", "docs/design/PRE_REGISTRATION.md" ] }, "active_probe_results": [ { "id": "earnings_narrative_change", "verdict": "KILL", "hypotheses_spent": 1, "metrics": { "net_sharpe": -0.0074355006698948066, "newey_west_t": -0.024159385592414994, "dsr": 1.135167655547433e-05, "psr": 0.49063363567839996, "n_trials_union_including_candidate": 228, "sr_trial_variance": 0.0008957471162984615, "max_drawdown": -0.2847080682530856, "skew": 0.05157137520091304, "realized_spy_beta": 0.0032566977631836255, "turnover_ann": 3.953845431455051, "net_sharpe_at_2x_costs": -0.462084363844257, "long_leg_gross_contribution": 0.7616211960073791, "short_leg_gross_contribution": -0.4637276418442936, "capacity": { "p05_usd_at_1bp_adv": 7398.2888639352395, "median_usd_at_1bp_adv": 14072.434169549422, "p05_usd_at_5bp_adv": 36991.4443196762, "median_usd_at_5bp_adv": 70362.17084774711, "p05_usd_at_10bp_adv": 73982.8886393524, "median_usd_at_10bp_adv": 140724.34169549422, "p05_usd_at_1pct_adv": 739828.8863935239, "median_usd_at_1pct_adv": 1407243.416954942 } }, "gates": { "net_sharpe_at_least_0_40": false, "dsr_at_least_0_95": false, "newey_west_t_at_least_2": false, "stressed_sharpe_at_least_0_40": false, "absolute_beta_at_most_0_10": true, "average_correlation_at_most_0_15": true, "max_pair_correlation_at_most_0_35": true, "max_stressed_correlation_at_most_0_50": true, "max_pair_correlation_upper_95_at_most_0_35": true, "max_stressed_correlation_upper_95_at_most_0_50": true, "correlation_observations_at_least_252": true, "stressed_observations_at_least_63": true, "book_delta_positive": true, "mean_zero_book_delta_positive": false, "all_leave_one_year_out_positive": true, "book_max_drawdown_delta_at_most_0_01": true, "book_expected_shortfall_delta_nonpositive": false, "long_leg_positive": true, "short_leg_positive": false, "capacity_at_least_5m": false }, "admission_review": { "contract_schema": "canli.alphac-sleeve-admission-contract.v6", "contract_path": "config/sleeve_admission_contract.json", "contract_sha256": "5f628a44ae73ed9c412b225ac9dc56c4e59c1bc0645e2ebde251501e938b9932", "checks_required_for_technical_eligibility": 85, "research_subset_checks": 20, "research_subset_passed": 12, "canonical_diversification_report_sha256": "db1ae528574297b72916720ce8f048231800a6ad4834bfc8b05a4ed65f058c8e", "status": "RESEARCH_SUBSET_FAILED", "technically_eligible": false, "unresolved_evidence": [ "point-in-time historical locate and borrow availability", "full execution-dimension scenario bundle and replay hashes", "capacity-curve reconciliation across stressed capital levels", "complete required lineage and robustness bundle" ], "claim_boundary": "Passing this contract makes a result technically eligible for an explicit admission decision. It does not guarantee a sleeve, future performance, the target Sharpe, or the target drawdown. Point estimates cannot override confidence-bound, crisis-conditional, tail-loss, execution-evidence, or capacity-reconciliation failures. v6 additionally refuses to load if its own significance floors cannot all be satisfied at once, gates the average pairwise correlation on its upper confidence bound as well as its point estimate, and publishes the arithmetic relating the correlation gate to the portfolio objective -- including the distance the gate does not close." }, "lineage": { "preregistration_sha256": "60486da41f1e2c88e62b6e56d436d780f645420ffaeb13364540d0c4040cc3b9", "data_manifest_sha256": "3f69cc02bd0038d9fc3ad4c8f61b832e884127cbef93e862194e22b06f25e006", "data_manifest_path": "artifacts/probe/earnings_narrative_change/input_data_manifest.json", "filing_manifest_sha256": "7228eef1a2493152355da5b0e84cc620a3c15707279caecc7f45041941dfa651", "ticker_history_sha256": "eb40fa6f1a6ba1e37336efd75392c5149123a825bfee209a84a83d0b7458e4cf", "corpus_parts_sha256": "45505610e0a93bf7cb27829aa6b62acf4dbd28659783e1fb7735b56f63e59a1b", "corpus_result_sha256": "0c4fc9a4ae8955a160120c5bee8904edb4f66dd7ef17767a95b7ddf950b827dc", "pair_file_sha256": "31b0c4e1eac60cbcee690256ad624edef4a66db00975e9ead8f72aa76fe3d808", "pair_result_sha256": "77e63f666c0ff2625757b6cef6636361c65ca6094e3874b1b9008c5e79c82b42", "runner_sha256": "b64c366b95c2f9595de3f6bf292f3958db7d9f2b1b5cab38ebedd94a082e3a05", "diversification_report_sha256": "db1ae528574297b72916720ce8f048231800a6ad4834bfc8b05a4ed65f058c8e", "admission_contract_sha256": "5f628a44ae73ed9c412b225ac9dc56c4e59c1bc0645e2ebde251501e938b9932", "return_identity_reservation_sha256": "1cca246e42c70803830ce69e9efda1ee6978b92ba88b6adee7830d479eabae79" }, "public_result": "/glassbox/earnings_narrative_change_result.json", "source_path": "artifacts/probe/earnings_narrative_change/result.json" } ], "blind_review_packets": [ { "id": "repurchase_item703", "title": "Repurchase / issuance Item 703", "status": "WAITING_FOR_INDEPENDENT_REVIEW", "documents": 60, "scope": "Determine whether each filing contains the frozen Item 703 table structure.", "content_hash": "sha256:0e70f38f7d07e2d22d5834ce1336401518f3704f29023097be3d973e14c928c8", "prediction_blind": true, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "market_data_opened": false, "return_data_opened": false, "claim_boundary": "This packet enables independent source labeling only. It contains no parser prediction, return, price, Sharpe, drawdown, correlation, capacity, or admission claim and spends zero return identities.", "public_paths": { "manifest": "/glassbox/repurchase_item703_blind_label_packet.json", "instructions": "/glassbox/repurchase_item703_blind/INSTRUCTIONS.md", "labels": "/glassbox/repurchase_item703_blind/reviewer_labels.csv", "attestation": "/glassbox/repurchase_item703_blind/reviewer_attestation.json" } }, { "id": "active_ownership_item4_v3", "title": "Active ownership Item 4 v3", "status": "WAITING_FOR_INDEPENDENT_REVIEW", "documents": 48, "scope": "Classify source language and exact aggregate ownership under the frozen protocol.", "content_hash": "sha256:98a1c738a1476ad1079e1746e656295e6602e70dc198752290fd9924340c0a42", "prediction_blind": true, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "market_data_opened": false, "return_data_opened": false, "claim_boundary": "This packet enables an independent blind source audit only. It contains no machine predictions and makes no accuracy, return, Sharpe, drawdown, or sleeve claim.", "public_paths": { "manifest": "/glassbox/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3_blind_label_packet.json", "instructions": "/glassbox/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3_blind/INSTRUCTIONS.md", "labels": "/glassbox/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3_blind/reviewer_labels.csv", "attestation": "/glassbox/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3_blind/reviewer_attestation.json", "archive": "/glassbox/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3_blind.tar.gz", "handoff_receipt": "/glassbox/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3_blind.json" } } ], "research_accessibility": { "audit": { "accessibility_score": 100, "automated_supplemental_checks": [ "complete forward Tab traversal and skip-link focus transfer", "focused-element center visibility against fixed content", "320-CSS-pixel reflow and non-inline 24-pixel control targets", "reduced-motion computed-style enforcement", "forced-colors main-content rendering", "browser console and page-error capture" ], "binary_checks_failed": 0, "binary_checks_passed": 103, "category_audits": 292, "claim_boundary": "This receipt seals Lighthouse and supplemental automated Chromium accessibility evidence across the four named public routes on local production builds. Perfect automated results are not complete WCAG 2.2 AA conformance, a human keyboard or screen-reader certification, or proof about an undeployed build. Untested human dimensions remain explicit and fail any broader conformance claim open.", "content_hash": "sha256:010836755d9ab32896c7e61a8e1caab3ec0b167c72a32b6b00221dbbff8d4749", "environment": "LOCAL_PRODUCTION_BUILD", "interaction_audit": { "content_hash": "sha256:716f879b1d328c372899553bff9e5c9772822bc12cd865217822ea0c0948e5e4", "passes": true, "public_path": "/glassbox/accessibility_interaction_audit.json", "routes_tested": [ "/", "/dashboard", "/how-it-works", "/research" ], "schema": "canli.site-accessibility-interaction-audit.v1", "source_sha256": "d8d5d95054cab3eb1cc5d85a420e5ccfead3d2692608a09891f6076afd5b89e3", "tested_at": "2026-08-24T09:47:03.204318+00:00" }, "lighthouse_version": "12.8.2", "manual_checks_completed": [], "project_lead": "Arhan Canli", "reproduction": { "audit_template": "npx --no-install lighthouse http://127.0.0.1:3000{route} --only-categories=accessibility --output=json", "build": "npm run build", "serve": "npm start" }, "route_evidence": [ { "accessibility_score": 100, "audit_modes": { "binary": 23, "manual": 10, "notApplicable": 40 }, "binary_checks_failed": 0, "binary_checks_passed": 23, "category_audits": 73, "final_url": "http://127.0.0.1:3000/", "lighthouse_version": "12.8.2", "route": "/", "source_report_sha256": "446cd2f65af1a5dd00a1204d21ad1e41a97530c807529ca255ab616dd14ee93e", "tested_at": "2026-08-24T09:46:39.076Z" }, { "accessibility_score": 100, "audit_modes": { "binary": 28, "manual": 10, "notApplicable": 35 }, "binary_checks_failed": 0, "binary_checks_passed": 28, "category_audits": 73, "final_url": "http://127.0.0.1:3000/dashboard", "lighthouse_version": "12.8.2", "route": "/dashboard", "source_report_sha256": "84997492f67af3c40af547b643ba6b5168d73c22a64faffce959342dbfdc7950", "tested_at": "2026-08-24T09:46:38.915Z" }, { "accessibility_score": 100, "audit_modes": { "binary": 23, "manual": 10, "notApplicable": 40 }, "binary_checks_failed": 0, "binary_checks_passed": 23, "category_audits": 73, "final_url": "http://127.0.0.1:3000/how-it-works", "lighthouse_version": "12.8.2", "route": "/how-it-works", "source_report_sha256": "b6cbf5de7f81fcff65eecf0adbcbdc2d944fce02abe3c506148c01d61f944238", "tested_at": "2026-08-24T09:46:39.072Z" }, { "accessibility_score": 100, "audit_modes": { "binary": 29, "informative": 1, "manual": 10, "notApplicable": 33 }, "binary_checks_failed": 0, "binary_checks_passed": 29, "category_audits": 73, "final_url": "http://127.0.0.1:3000/research", "lighthouse_version": "12.8.2", "route": "/research", "source_report_sha256": "5f558cc28d6713abf6e7f3402459a53a25bb4d4ef8a07c132f830134c56b2fca", "tested_at": "2026-08-24T09:46:38.915Z" } ], "routes_tested": [ "/", "/dashboard", "/how-it-works", "/research" ], "schema": "canli.site-accessibility-audit.v3", "tested_at": "2026-08-24T09:46:39.076Z", "untested_human_dimensions": [ "human keyboard usability and focus-order review", "screen-reader review with VoiceOver, NVDA, or TalkBack", "human review at browser zoom levels up to 400 percent", "visual review in platform high-contrast modes", "touch usability across physical devices" ] }, "public_path": "/glassbox/research_accessibility_audit.json", "source_path": "artifacts/audit/research_accessibility_audit.json" }, "sleeve_discovery": { "schema": "canli.sleeve-discovery.v2", "program": "ALPHAC breadth program", "objective": { "average_pairwise_correlation_objective": -0.03, "average_pairwise_correlation_objective_note": "An objective, not a gate. -0.03 is the average pairwise correlation at which fourteen sleeves of measured quality reach 2.5. Thresholds are gates and live in 'thresholds'; anything that is not enforced must not sit there wearing a gate's costume.", "backtest_to_forward_haircut": { "measured_on_this_book": "in-sample equal-risk ~1.04 against an honest forward of 0.3-0.9", "note": "The haircut IS the uncertainty. Until the forward record is long enough to speak, every in-sample figure should be read through it, and the range is this book's own published pair rather than a convention borrowed from elsewhere.", "range": [ 1.5, 3.0 ] }, "honest_forward_sharpe_target": 1.5, "implied_in_sample_target": { "at_1_5x_haircut": 2.25, "at_2_0x_haircut": 3.0, "at_3_0x_haircut": 4.5 }, "minimum_new_sleeves": 10, "portfolio_max_drawdown_statistic": "expected_maximum_drawdown", "portfolio_max_drawdown_target": 0.11, "portfolio_p95_max_drawdown_is_gated": false, "portfolio_p95_max_drawdown_must_be_published": true, "portfolio_sharpe_target": [ 2.25, 3.0 ], "portfolio_sharpe_target_unit": "IN-SAMPLE, being the band that an honest forward 1.5 implies at the 1.5x and 2.0x ends of this book's own measured haircut. The headline target is honest_forward_sharpe_target.", "superseded_in_sample_sharpe_target": [ 2.0, 2.5 ], "superseded_reason": "Stated in-sample with no haircut named, and unreachable as a forward result: a verified forward 2.0 at measured per-sleeve quality needs an average pairwise correlation of -0.062 against a PSD floor of -0.077. Withdrawn 2026-08-21 and replaced with an honest FORWARD target of 1.5, which is inside the floor at every plausible quality.", "target_total_sleeves": 14, "targets_are_admission_evidence": false, "what_reaching_it_requires": "Both halves, not either: an average pairwise correlation meaningfully BELOW zero, and per-sleeve quality above roughly 0.60. At today's measured 0.469 the forward target is reachable only at a correlation near -0.030 and only on the optimistic haircut.", "why_this_is_not_a_retreat": "The rarer thing was never the number. A forward Sharpe near 1.5 that is genuinely verifiable -- signed forward record, every killed candidate published in full, gates that provably bite, and the arithmetic showing where the gate falls short of the target printed on the same page as the target -- is harder to find than a 2.5 nobody can check.", "target_sleeve_count": 14, "candidate_atlas_minimum": 200, "portfolio_requirement": "Improve the combined book through independent economic return sources, not leverage or selection of the prettiest backtest.", "admission_rule": "A target never creates a sleeve. Fourteen is reached only if ten or more new identities independently clear every admission gate; otherwise the book remains smaller." }, "admission_gates": { "point_in_time_data": true, "net_of_costs": true, "walk_forward_only": true, "book_deflated_sharpe_must_be_measured": true, "deflated_sharpe_must_be_measured": true, "requires_capacity_curve": true, "requires_kill_criteria": true, "pbo_max": 0.2, "candidate_average_correlation_to_existing_book_max": 0.0, "book_average_pairwise_correlation_delta_max_exclusive": 0.0, "average_pairwise_correlation_upper_95_max": 0.1, "pairwise_correlation_max": 0.35, "stressed_pairwise_correlation_max": 0.5, "minimum_oos_observations": 756, "net_sharpe_min": 0.15, "capacity_usd_min": 500000 }, "credential_policy": { "storage": "environment variables or managed secret store only", "never": [ "source code", "research artifacts", "chat transcripts", "client-side bundles" ], "request_timing": "Only after a candidate passes its key-free feasibility screen." }, "feasibility_reviews": [ { "id": "stablecoin_dislocation", "queue_state": "outside-active-return-queue", "mechanism": "USDC secondary-to-primary par dislocation available only to the same eligible institutional entity that can execute direct issuer redemption", "literature_review": "docs/design/LITERATURE_STABLECOIN_DISLOCATION.md", "literature_review_public": "/research/literature-stablecoin-dislocation.md", "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_STABLECOIN_DISLOCATION.md", "protocol_public": "/research/stablecoin-dislocation-feasibility.md", "decision": "DATA_GATED", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "frozen_token": "native issuer-supported USDC only", "frozen_mechanism": "executable secondary USDC/USD purchase followed by direct Circle redemption to linked-bank USD", "excluded_identities": [ "USDT substitution", "algorithmic stablecoins", "crypto-collateralized stablecoins", "wrapped or bridged USDC", "exchange-to-exchange convergence" ], "required_stress_windows": [ "2020-03", "2022-05", "2022-11", "2023-03", "issuer conversion pauses", "venue outages" ], "blocking_reasons": [ "production_entity_circle_mint_eligibility", "effective_dated_redemption_and_outage_lineage", "synchronized_historical_l2_books", "prospective_end_to_end_redemption_ledger" ], "credential_state": "INSTITUTIONAL_REDEMPTION_AND_L2_NOT_CONFIGURED", "claim_boundary": "No sign, threshold, return, Sharpe, drawdown, correlation, capacity, or admission claim exists; public candles cannot pass feasibility." }, { "id": "spin_off_dislocation", "queue_state": "outside-active-return-queue", "mechanism": "Forced selling and information gaps around completed pro-rata corporate separations, residualized from size, value, momentum and generic event risk", "literature_review": "docs/design/LITERATURE_SPIN_OFF_DISLOCATION.md", "literature_review_public": "/research/literature-spin-off-dislocation.md", "lineage_protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_SPIN_OFF_DISLOCATION.md", "lineage_result": "artifacts/feasibility/spin_off_dislocation/result.json", "document_protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_SPIN_OFF_DOCUMENT_SCHEMA.md", "document_result": "artifacts/feasibility/spin_off_dislocation/document_schema_result.json", "document_result_public": "/glassbox/spin_off_document_schema.json", "decision": "DATA_GATED", "lineage_decision": "PASS_TO_DOCUMENT_SCHEMA_AUDIT", "lineage_quarter_indexes": 40, "lineage_initial_registrations": 204, "document_sample_rows": 98, "document_successful_rows": 98, "explicit_mechanism_rate": 0.6938775510204082, "pro_rata_language_rate": 0.16326530612244897, "ratio_mentions": 8, "distribution_date_mentions": 0, "blocking_reasons": [ "initial_form10_does_not_reliably_contain_distribution_ratio", "initial_form10_does_not_reliably_contain_record_or_distribution_dates", "amendment_known_identity_would_require_new_preregistration" ], "market_data_opened": false, "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "claim_boundary": "The SEC source route is complete, but initial Form 10 acceptance cannot define a tradable event. No return, Sharpe, correlation, capacity or admission claim exists." }, { "id": "natural_gas_storage_weather", "queue_state": "outside-active-return-queue", "mechanism": "First-release Lower-48 natural-gas storage residual conditioned on a forecast vintage fixed before the storage week", "family_trial_account": "commodity_inventory_weather", "prior_family_return_trials": 1, "minimum_family_trials_if_returns_open": 2, "overlap_identity": "commodity_inventory_seasonal", "literature_review": "docs/design/LITERATURE_NATURAL_GAS_STORAGE_WEATHER.md", "literature_review_public": "/research/literature-natural-gas-storage-weather.md", "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_NATURAL_GAS_STORAGE_WEATHER.md", "protocol_public": "/research/natural-gas-storage-weather-feasibility.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/natural_gas_storage_weather/result.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/natural_gas_storage_weather_feasibility.json", "decision": "DATA_GATED", "expected_eia_periods": 469, "wayback_first_release_periods": 84, "wayback_first_release_coverage": 0.1791044776119403, "official_original_data_coverage": 1.0, "original_values_differing_from_current_history": 53, "noaa_endpoint_coverage": 0.997867803837953, "cme_metadata_pass": true, "blocking_reasons": [ "frozen_wayback_first_release_coverage_below_90_percent", "official_original_data_requires_new_source_preregistration", "same_family_as_killed_petroleum_inventory_trial" ], "market_data_opened": false, "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "claim_boundary": "Weather and CME infrastructure pass, but the frozen EIA first-release route fails. The official original-data workbook is redesign evidence, not permission to open returns." }, { "id": "customer_supplier_propagation", "queue_state": "outside-active-return-queue", "mechanism": "Delayed supplier response to a later customer event, using only material customer relationships public in the supplier's prior 10-K", "family_trial_account": "customer_supplier_propagation", "literature_review": "docs/design/LITERATURE_CUSTOMER_SUPPLIER_PROPAGATION.md", "literature_review_public": "/research/literature-customer-supplier-propagation.md", "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_CUSTOMER_SUPPLIER_PROPAGATION.md", "protocol_public": "/research/customer-supplier-propagation-feasibility.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/customer_supplier_propagation/result.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/customer_supplier_propagation_feasibility.json", "decision": "DATA_GATED", "manifest_rows_in_period": 36424, "source_documents_valid": 36243, "source_coverage": 0.9950307489567318, "concentration_candidates": 29220, "sample_rows": 300, "documents_with_machine_name_candidate": 106, "machine_name_candidate_rate": 0.35333333333333333, "blocking_reasons": [ "locked_named_customer_gate_below_50_percent", "v1_machine_candidates_include_non_entity_false_positives", "historical_public_issuer_resolution_not_audited" ], "market_data_opened": false, "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "claim_boundary": "The official filing corpus is broad, but v1 cannot define an investable point-in-time relationship graph. No return, correlation, capacity, or admission claim exists." }, { "id": "bond_etf_nav_dislocation", "queue_state": "outside-active-return-queue", "mechanism": "Secondary-market correction of a bond-ETF valuation gap only after distinguishing stale underlying marks from ETF price discovery", "family_trial_account": "bond_etf_nav_dislocation", "literature_review": "docs/design/LITERATURE_BOND_ETF_NAV_DISLOCATION.md", "literature_review_public": "/research/literature-bond-etf-nav-dislocation.md", "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_BOND_ETF_NAV_DISLOCATION.md", "protocol_public": "/research/bond-etf-nav-dislocation-feasibility.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/bond_etf_nav_dislocation/result.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/bond_etf_nav_dislocation_feasibility.json", "decision": "DATA_GATED", "funds": [ "HYG", "LQD" ], "expected_xnys_sessions_each": 2514, "issuer_dates_in_period_each": 249, "issuer_coverage_each": 0.09904534606205251, "historical_holdings_snapshots_each": 1, "required_historical_holdings_snapshots_each": 120, "trace_historical_agreement_required": true, "trace_historical_fees_required": true, "blocking_reasons": [ "issuer_premium_discount_coverage_below_98_percent", "historical_monthly_holdings_unavailable", "constituent_valuation_timestamps_unavailable", "synchronized_etf_and_bond_execution_data_unavailable" ], "market_data_opened": false, "market_records_opened": 0, "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "claim_boundary": "Published NAV gaps cannot distinguish stale marks from ETF mispricing. No sign, return, correlation, capacity, or admission claim exists." } ], "audit": { "performed_at": "2026-08-15", "finding": "The v1 queue accidentally relisted eight previously tested families. They are preserved below as retired, not presented as fresh research.", "public_source": "glassbox/kill_log.json" }, "candidates": [ { "id": "earnings_narrative_change", "mechanism": "Point-in-time change in issuer language and disclosed operating risks, residualized against earnings surprise, momentum and sector", "asset_class": "US equities", "horizon": "one to three months", "hypothesis_budget": 2, "free_probe": "Official SEC 10-Q, 10-K and earnings-exhibit filing-time corpus feasibility with deterministic section extraction", "production_data": "Point-in-time filing text, earnings-call transcripts, speaker roles, revisions and delistings", "provider_options": [ "SEC EDGAR", "LSEG StreetEvents", "FactSet CallStreet" ], "execution": [ "Alpaca" ], "status": "return-killed", "feasibility": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_EARNINGS_NARRATIVE_CHANGE.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/earnings_narrative_change/result.json", "decision": "PASS_TO_RETURN_PREREGISTRATION", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "documents_downloaded": 361, "documents_selected": 361, "parser_version": "sec-filing-sections-v2" }, "return_preregistration": "docs/design/PREREG_EARNINGS_NARRATIVE_CHANGE.md", "locked_runner": "scripts/probe_earnings_narrative_change.py", "return_barrier": "Runner refuses to load prices until the corpus is complete under current parser/SIC semantics, every immutable part is SHA-256 sealed, and the immediate-predecessor pair Parquet is cryptographically bound to that exact corpus with zero return identities spent.", "return_hypotheses_spent": 1, "return_result": { "artifact": "artifacts/probe/earnings_narrative_change/result.json", "verdict": "KILL", "net_sharpe": -0.007435344256409239, "stressed_sharpe": -0.4620841928744271, "deflated_sharpe": 0.00015049896195988574, "newey_west_t": -0.02415887517752287, "max_drawdown": -0.2847079894102502, "research_gates_passed": 12, "research_gates_total": 20, "technically_eligible": false, "claim_boundary": "One locked identity was spent and rejected. Low correlation does not rescue failed alpha, stressed-cost, tail-loss, short-leg, and capacity gates." }, "manifest": { "result": "artifacts/ingest/earnings_narrative_change/manifest_result.json", "filings": 83070, "issuers_with_filings": 8701, "pair_eligible_filings": 82491, "pair_eligible_issuers": 8122, "metadata_failures": 0, "duplicate_filing_identities": 0 }, "kill": "Kill if section lineage cannot be reconstructed point-in-time, language changes are unstable across filing formats, or residual correlation to AlphaMax exceeds 0.35." }, { "id": "analyst_revision_drift", "mechanism": "Point-in-time consensus estimate revisions after controlling for earnings surprise and momentum", "asset_class": "US equities", "horizon": "one to three months", "hypothesis_budget": 2, "free_probe": "Schema and timestamp audit only; free history is not sufficient for a defensible backtest", "production_data": "As-of analyst estimates, contributor counts, announcement timestamps and delistings", "provider_options": [ "LSEG I/B/E/S", "FactSet Estimates", "Visible Alpha" ], "execution": [ "Alpaca" ], "status": "data-gated", "kill": "Kill if revision timestamps cannot be reconstructed point-in-time or residual correlation to AlphaMax exceeds 0.35." }, { "id": "options_dispersion", "mechanism": "Index-versus-single-stock implied correlation dispersion with defined crash loss", "asset_class": "equity options", "horizon": "weekly to monthly", "hypothesis_budget": 3, "free_probe": "Accounting, surface-cleaning and tail-budget harness only", "production_data": "Historical SPX and constituent option chains, index membership, bid/ask, greeks and corporate actions", "provider_options": [ "OptionMetrics", "Cboe DataShop", "ORATS" ], "execution": [ "Interactive Brokers", "Alpaca options only if multi-leg controls qualify" ], "status": "data-gated", "literature_review": "docs/design/LITERATURE_OPTIONS_DISPERSION.md", "literature_review_public": "/research/literature-options-dispersion.md", "feasibility": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_OPTIONS_DISPERSION.md", "protocol_public": "/research/options-dispersion-feasibility.md", "decision": "DATA_GATED", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "frozen_identity": "SPX versus point-in-time top-50 eligible S&P 500 constituents, 30-calendar-day strips", "minimum_history_years": 15, "alpaca_history_start": "2024-02", "preferred_research_source": "OptionMetrics IvyDB US plus point-in-time S&P membership", "execution_calibration_source": "Cboe DataShop one-minute NBBO and size on 250 deterministic dates", "credential_state": "INSTITUTIONAL_HISTORY_NOT_CONFIGURED", "claim_boundary": "Mechanism and accounting are source-bound; no investable return, sign, threshold or admission claim exists." }, "kill": "Kill if the edge is ordinary short index variance, crisis expected shortfall breaches budget, or constituent costs consume half the gross premium." }, { "id": "merger_arbitrage", "mechanism": "Announced cash-deal spread convergence conditioned on financing, regulatory and termination risk", "asset_class": "US equities", "horizon": "event driven", "hypothesis_budget": 2, "free_probe": "SEC 8-K and merger-agreement event-schema feasibility", "production_data": "Point-in-time deal terms, revisions, breaks, votes, close dates and borrow costs", "provider_options": [ "SEC EDGAR", "LSEG Deals", "FactSet Mergerstat" ], "execution": [ "Alpaca", "Interactive Brokers" ], "status": "data-gated", "feasibility": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_MERGER_ARBITRAGE.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/merger_arbitrage/result.json", "decision": "DATA_GATED", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "target_anchors": 1965, "prior_8k_60d_rate": 0.6702290076335878, "later_outcome_540d_rate": 0.917557251908397 }, "tender_only_document_feasibility": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_TENDER_OFFER_SPREAD.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/tender_offer_spread/result.json", "decision": "DATA_GATED", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "documents": 100, "item4_extraction_rate": 0.94, "unique_price_rate": 0.10638297872340426, "ambiguous_price_rate": 0.7446808510638298, "recommendation_resolution_rate": 0.22340425531914893 }, "kill": "Kill if deal terms cannot be reconstructed without hindsight or realized break losses dominate the costed spread." }, { "id": "index_reconstitution_flow", "mechanism": "Announcement-to-effective-date demand from transparent index additions and deletions", "asset_class": "global equities", "horizon": "days to weeks", "hypothesis_budget": 2, "free_probe": "Rulebook and announcement timestamp audit", "production_data": "Point-in-time announcement archive, index weights, float, ADV and closing-auction data", "provider_options": [ "S&P Global", "FTSE Russell", "MSCI" ], "execution": [ "Alpaca US subset", "Interactive Brokers global" ], "status": "data-gated", "kill": "Kill if announcement history is survivorship-biased or auction slippage consumes the forecast edge." }, { "id": "electricity_load_weather_spread", "mechanism": "Forecast errors in weather-driven regional electricity load relative to marginal fuel and power prices, neutralized to commodity trend", "asset_class": "power and natural-gas futures", "horizon": "day-ahead to weekly", "hypothesis_budget": 2, "free_probe": "Official EIA balancing-authority demand and NOAA forecast-vintage timestamp feasibility for a fixed set of liquid regions", "production_data": "Point-in-time weather forecasts, ISO load forecasts and revisions, nodal or hub power prices, fuel prices, listed contract rolls and executable bid/ask", "provider_options": [ "EIA", "NOAA", "PJM", "ERCOT", "CME DataMine", "ICE Data Services" ], "execution": [ "Interactive Brokers where contracts are supported", "CME or ICE clearing broker" ], "status": "data-gated", "literature_review": "docs/design/LITERATURE_ELECTRICITY_LOAD_WEATHER.md", "literature_review_public": "/research/literature-electricity-load-weather.md", "feasibility": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ELECTRICITY_LOAD_WEATHER.md", "protocol_public": "/research/electricity-load-weather-feasibility.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/electricity_load_weather/result.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/electricity_load_weather_feasibility.json", "decision": "DATA_GATED", "source_collection_complete": false, "collection_error_type": "RuntimeError", "locked_respondents": [ "PJM", "ERCO", "MISO", "ISNE" ], "locked_series_types": [ "D", "DF" ], "blocking_reasons": [ "official_eia_collection_rate_limited_or_unavailable", "explicit_forecast_issue_or_vintage_timestamp", "delivery_period_timezone_and_dst_fold_explicit", "full_historical_missingness_and_revision_audit", "noaa_operational_forecast_vintage_corpus" ], "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, "kill": "Kill if forecast vintages cannot be reconstructed, listed liquidity is insufficient, or returns reduce to natural-gas trend or generic seasonality." }, { "id": "securities_lending_supply", "mechanism": "Point-in-time borrow-fee and utilization changes as a constrained-supply return source", "asset_class": "US equities", "horizon": "days to weeks", "hypothesis_budget": 2, "free_probe": "Broker snapshot schema and forward capture; no historical claim from current snapshots", "production_data": "Historical borrow fees, utilization, recalls and availability by security", "provider_options": [ "S&P Global Securities Finance", "DataLend", "Orbisa" ], "execution": [ "Interactive Brokers", "Alpaca where borrow metadata is sufficient" ], "status": "data-gated", "kill": "Kill if locate and recall costs erase the signal or historical availability cannot be established point-in-time." }, { "id": "credit_equity_relative_value", "mechanism": "Issuer-level equity-versus-credit dislocation after neutralizing market, sector, duration and quality", "asset_class": "corporate credit and equities", "horizon": "weeks to months", "hypothesis_budget": 3, "free_probe": "ETF-level harness and issuer-mapping audit only", "production_data": "Point-in-time bond prices, reference data, TRACE liquidity and equity corporate actions", "provider_options": [ "FINRA TRACE", "LSEG", "Bloomberg" ], "execution": [ "Interactive Brokers" ], "status": "data-gated", "kill": "Kill if issuer mapping is hindsight-contaminated, liquidity makes fills implausible, or the result is merely quality or momentum." }, { "id": "active_ownership_escalation", "mechanism": "New Schedule 13D control-intent ownership followed by specific governance, board, capital-allocation or strategic action", "asset_class": "US equities", "horizon": "one to six months", "hypothesis_budget": 2, "free_probe": "Global SEC quarterly-index, immutable header and Item 4 document feasibility with contemporaneous subject-CIK mapping", "production_data": "Point-in-time Schedule 13D/13D-A state, reporting groups, Item 4 intent changes, ownership percentages, exits, delistings and borrow", "provider_options": [ "SEC EDGAR", "LSEG Ownership", "FactSet Ownership" ], "execution": [ "Alpaca" ], "status": "data-gated", "metadata_feasibility_v1": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ACTIVE_OWNERSHIP_13D.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d/result.json", "decision": "DATA_GATED", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, "metadata_feasibility_v2": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ACTIVE_OWNERSHIP_13D_SCHEMA_V2.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_schema_v2/result.json", "decision": "PASS_TO_DOCUMENT_FEASIBILITY", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "unique_initial_accessions": 22353, "headers": 800, "header_lineage_rate": 1.0, "unique_ticker_mapping_rate": 0.4725, "unique_ticker_wilson_95_lower": 0.43811877942165883 }, "document_feasibility_v1": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ACTIVE_OWNERSHIP_13D_ITEM4.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_item4/result.json", "decision": "DATA_GATED", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "documents": 160, "item4_extraction_rate": 0.78125 }, "document_feasibility_v2": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ACTIVE_OWNERSHIP_13D_ITEM4_V2.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_item4_v2/result.json", "decision": "DATA_GATED", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "documents": 160, "successful_submissions": 159, "item4_extracted": 139, "item4_extraction_rate": 0.86875, "specific_active_intent_rate": 0.17985611510791366 }, "document_feasibility_v3": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ACTIVE_OWNERSHIP_13D_ITEM4_V3.md", "protocol_public": "/research/active-ownership-item4-v3-feasibility.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3/result.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/active_ownership_item4_v3_feasibility.json", "decision": "HUMAN_AUDIT_REQUIRED", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "documents": 160, "successful_submissions": 160, "item4_extracted": 150, "item4_extraction_rate": 0.9375, "specific_active_intent_rate": 0.2, "completed_human_labels": 0, "required_human_labels": 48 }, "kill": "Kill if specific active intent cannot be separated from boilerplate point-in-time, target/reporting-person lineage is unstable, or residual correlation to existing equity sleeves exceeds 0.35." }, { "id": "treasury_auction_concession", "mechanism": "Temporary duration concession before repeated US Treasury coupon auctions followed by post-auction normalization, conditioned on issue size and dealer-balance-sheet pressure", "asset_class": "US Treasury futures and liquid duration ETFs", "horizon": "one to three sessions", "hypothesis_budget": 1, "free_probe": "Official Fiscal Data auction API lineage, publication-timing audit and a no-return event manifest before one publication-aware return identity", "production_data": "Auction announcements and results, reopening status, issue size, when-issued or futures prices, contract rolls, bid/ask and primary-dealer positioning", "provider_options": [ "US Treasury Fiscal Data", "Federal Reserve Bank of New York", "CME DataMine" ], "execution": [ "Interactive Brokers", "Alpaca ETF proxy only for shadow validation" ], "status": "identity-redesign-required", "literature_review": "docs/design/LITERATURE_FRONTIER_2026_08_16.md", "literature_review_public": "/research/literature-frontier-2026-08-16.md", "feasibility": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_TREASURY_AUCTION_CONCESSION.md", "protocol_public": "/research/treasury-auction-concession-feasibility.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/treasury_auction_concession/result.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/treasury_auction_concession_feasibility.json", "decision": "PASS_TO_RETURN_PREREGISTRATION", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "source_rows": 7831, "coupon_auction_events": 2037, "post_2013_events": 1377, "core_field_completeness_min": 1.0, "at_least_one_day_notice_rate": 0.9955817378497791, "unique_event_identity_rate": 1.0, "floating_rate_field_completeness": 1.0, "floating_rate_notes": 153, "raw_sha256": "05ce5ca4016bd2c372d62e6cd149d37e06c858b82adcc19301491350f83eeceb", "manifest_sha256": "594cd1df7acbb6b91c3a778cfea0abd7bdec290d418b073c954ead858b22c285" }, "identity_timing": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_TREASURY_AUCTION_IDENTITY_TIMING.md", "protocol_public": "/research/treasury-auction-identity-timing.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/treasury_auction_concession/identity_timing.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/treasury_auction_identity_timing.json", "decision": "CALENDAR_LINEAGE_REQUIRED", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "published_pre_auction_sessions": 10, "two_year_note_auctions": 319, "median_announcement_lead_calendar_days": 5.0, "formal_announcements_with_at_least_ten_calendar_days": 0, "source_manifest_sha256": "594cd1df7acbb6b91c3a778cfea0abd7bdec290d418b073c954ead858b22c285" }, "tentative_schedule_archive": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_TREASURY_AUCTION_IDENTITY_TIMING.md", "protocol_public": "/research/treasury-auction-identity-timing.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/treasury_auction_concession/tentative_schedule_audit.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/treasury_tentative_schedule_audit.json", "decision": "CALENDAR_LINEAGE_REQUIRED", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "target_years": [ 2013, 2025 ], "expected_quarters": 52, "available_schedule_quarters": 23, "missing_schedule_quarters": 29, "target_fixed_rate_two_year_auctions": 156, "official_xml_schedule_bound_auctions": 68, "wayback_ten_session_schedule_bound_auctions": 47, "wayback_pdf_ten_session_schedule_bound_auctions": 73, "wayback_archive_union_bound_auctions": 77, "combined_schedule_bound_auctions": 145, "combined_schedule_coverage_rate": 0.9294871794871795, "combined_missing_auction_dates": 11, "minimum_prior_sessions_matched": 13, "ambiguous_manifest_auction_dates": [], "source_manifest_sha256": "594cd1df7acbb6b91c3a778cfea0abd7bdec290d418b073c954ead858b22c285", "content_hash": "sha256:88343f16ca630259c5f3eadc21b740b7497b5fdbba26ebf47675bfd3c9c99b8e" }, "wayback_schedule_archive": { "result": "artifacts/feasibility/treasury_auction_concession/wayback_schedule_audit.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/treasury_wayback_schedule_audit.json", "decision": "CALENDAR_LINEAGE_REQUIRED", "archive_captures": 16, "target_historical_auctions": 88, "ten_session_schedule_bound_auctions": 47, "ten_session_schedule_coverage_rate": 0.5340909090909091, "minimum_prior_sessions_bound": 10, "cdx_sha256": "de2968f5dcffab2ffb4f72ac2d132c13a9537463448087087842a9e15a6c0800", "events_sha256": "b6e84b0583c6861ad2131d08ba2e70ba1a952796c6de1b7b3ad7a0f8267dcbb7", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, "wayback_pdf_schedule_archive": { "result": "artifacts/feasibility/treasury_auction_concession/wayback_pdf_schedule_audit.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/treasury_wayback_pdf_schedule_audit.json", "decision": "CALENDAR_LINEAGE_REQUIRED", "archive_captures": 26, "target_historical_auctions": 88, "ten_session_schedule_bound_auctions": 73, "ten_session_schedule_coverage_rate": 0.8295454545454546, "excluded_unmatched_tentative_dates": 6, "minimum_prior_sessions_bound": 10, "cdx_sha256": "33e43b9a5e30f53a0c498bb8574bfdc129825de2da9591b7767679166878a1f2", "events_sha256": "6e8a053d5b6af706d24669aa903bcbcc56b0c707f5b2a1cc9dd34913fb62f716", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, "calendar_revision_audit": { "result": "artifacts/feasibility/treasury_auction_concession/calendar_revision_audit.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/treasury_calendar_revision_audit.json", "decision": "IDENTITY_NOT_OBSERVABLE_AS_PREREGISTERED", "unresolved_auction_dates": 11, "tentative_date_changed": 5, "exact_date_only_late_capture": 2, "exact_date_only_post_event_capture": 3, "no_captured_month_schedule": 1, "formal_announcement_lead_sessions_range": [ 2, 4 ], "archive_evidence_rows": 251, "archive_corpus_sha256": "53de6a6cee2d77da54b2564e904b38ad08c64cecd5ea70fddb2b84d166e9a3bc", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "required_redesign": "Register a point-in-time schedule-revision state machine with explicit cancel, roll, late-announcement, and missing-update behavior before opening returns." }, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "kill": "Kill if the effect is absent after the 2013 publication date, reduces to unhedged duration beta, cannot survive one-tick-plus-fee costs, or correlates above 0.35 with AlphaTrend." }, { "id": "cftc_hedging_pressure", "mechanism": "Cross-sectional commodity risk transfer from commercial hedging pressure using only CFTC reports available after their Friday release, neutralized to trend and curve carry", "asset_class": "commodity futures", "horizon": "weekly to monthly", "hypothesis_budget": 1, "free_probe": "Official CFTC historical compressed-report schema, release-lag audit and fixed mapping from report markets to the existing liquid futures or ETF universe", "production_data": "Point-in-time COT disaggregated positions, release timestamps, futures settlements, rolls, limits, bid/ask and contract multipliers", "provider_options": [ "CFTC", "CME DataMine", "ICE Data Services" ], "execution": [ "Interactive Brokers", "CME or ICE clearing broker" ], "status": "data-gated", "literature_review": "docs/design/LITERATURE_FRONTIER_2026_08_16.md", "literature_review_public": "/research/literature-frontier-2026-08-16.md", "feasibility": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_CFTC_HEDGING_PRESSURE.md", "protocol_public": "/research/cftc-hedging-pressure-feasibility.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/cftc_hedging_pressure/result.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/cftc_hedging_pressure_feasibility.json", "decision": "DATA_GATED", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "metadata_rows": 183676, "history_years": 21, "contract_markets": 650, "core_field_completeness_min": 1.0, "unique_event_identity_rate": 1.0, "tuesday_report_date_rate": 0.9890459287005379, "exact_release_timestamp_lineage_rate": 0.0, "stable_market_code_name_rate": 0.9938461538461538, "blocking_reasons": [ "exact_historical_release_lineage", "fixed_tradable_contract_mapping" ], "raw_sha256": "61ddb56a6eb7ce58cbac841ecc2b149eb65d516dd3337e8edf01f1c01012a607", "manifest_sha256": "8dcc786360279c0448c9600f4d7e7bf4f120a64fa3bbcd4b525ab6d44b7843a8" }, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "kill": "Kill if release-lagged positions do not add beyond trend and curve carry, the tradable map is unstable, crisis liquidity breaks the cost model, or correlation to AlphaTrend exceeds 0.35." }, { "id": "pre_fomc_announcement_drift", "mechanism": "A publication-aware replication of the equity premium reported in the hours before scheduled FOMC announcements, isolated from overnight and ordinary market beta", "asset_class": "US equity-index futures or SPY", "horizon": "intraday event window", "hypothesis_budget": 1, "free_probe": "Official Federal Reserve calendar lineage and intraday-bar coverage audit, with the post-2015 publication window designated as the primary falsification sample", "production_data": "Point-in-time FOMC schedule changes, intraday index futures or SPY quotes, spreads, holidays and announcement timestamps", "provider_options": [ "Federal Reserve", "Polygon", "CME DataMine" ], "execution": [ "Interactive Brokers", "Alpaca SPY proxy for shadow validation" ], "status": "data-gated", "literature_review": "docs/design/LITERATURE_FRONTIER_2026_08_16.md", "literature_review_public": "/research/literature-frontier-2026-08-16.md", "feasibility": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_PRE_FOMC_ANNOUNCEMENT_DRIFT.md", "protocol_public": "/research/pre-fomc-announcement-drift-feasibility.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/pre_fomc_announcement_drift/result.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/pre_fomc_announcement_drift_feasibility.json", "decision": "CALENDAR_LINEAGE_REQUIRED", "scheduled_events": 79, "period_start": "2016-01-27", "period_end": "2025-12-10", "years_with_eight_regular_decisions": 9, "documented_2020_regular_decisions": 7, "release_time_coverage_rate": 1.0, "release_at_2pm_et_rate": 1.0, "point_in_time_schedule_revision_lineage_rate": 0.0, "blocking_reasons": [ "point_in_time_schedule_revision_lineage" ], "source_manifest_sha256": "a1a5196803cc7dea80a59f20120522b6057fabca0a3bdd13ce12f99aa011945c", "events_sha256": "049b20e54e32376ade4e2366a83dc5cb83e3ceca134779009da066bd2bdb77f5" }, "schedule_lineage": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_PRE_FOMC_ANNOUNCEMENT_DRIFT.md", "protocol_public": "/research/pre-fomc-announcement-drift-feasibility.md", "result": "artifacts/feasibility/pre_fomc_announcement_drift/annual_schedule_lineage.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/pre_fomc_schedule_lineage.json", "decision": "PASS_TO_RETURN_PREREGISTRATION", "annual_schedule_sources": 10, "scheduled_slots": 80, "completed_regular_decisions": 79, "explicit_cancellations": 1, "minimum_initial_publication_lead_sessions": 117, "events_sha256": "1a3cb2fa355311936be32679b227fe4bfbaed27bc15864247548734c4e176be2", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, "return_preregistration": { "document": "docs/design/PREREG_PRE_FOMC_ANNOUNCEMENT_DRIFT.md", "document_public": "/research/prereg-pre-fomc-announcement-drift.md", "identity": "pre_fomc_announcement_drift_v1", "direction": "long", "scheduled_slots": 80, "completed_events": 79, "cancelled_slot": "2020-03-18", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, "market_data_readiness": { "result": "artifacts/feasibility/pre_fomc_announcement_drift/market_data_readiness.json", "result_public": "/glassbox/pre_fomc_market_data_readiness.json", "decision": "DATA_GATED", "required_control_windows": 312, "minimum_controls_per_completed_event": 3, "required_unique_session_files": 782, "missing_session_files": 0, "full_day_flatfile_compressed_gib": 3005.294, "maximum_bounded_flatfile_route_gib": 50.0, "credential_state": "NO_USABLE_QUOTE_DOWNLOAD_ROUTE", "blocking_reasons": [ "polygon_flatfile_get_object_forbidden", "polygon_rest_historical_quotes_not_authorized", "full_market_flatfile_route_exceeds_bounded_ingest_ceiling", "databento_consolidated_history_starts_in_2023" ], "quote_records_opened": false, "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "kill": "Kill if the post-publication sample is non-positive net of costs, the result is ordinary overnight beta, schedule revisions cannot be reconstructed, or left-tail behavior violates the event-risk budget." }, { "id": "repurchase_issuance_flow", "mechanism": "Filing-known completed corporate equity demand: completed repurchases versus contamination-resolved completed issuance, never authorization headlines", "asset_class": "US equities", "horizon": "one quarter to one year", "hypothesis_budget": 1, "family_trial_account": "corporate_equity_supply", "prior_family_return_configurations": 3, "minimum_family_trials_if_returns_open": 4, "counts_toward_ten_new_independent_sleeves": false, "identity_overlap": { "artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/repurchase_issuance_flow/identity_overlap_audit.json", "classification": "SAME_ECONOMIC_FAMILY_DISTINCT_MEASUREMENT", "decision": "CONTINUE_DATA_FEASIBILITY_SAME_FAMILY", "fresh_standalone_trial_budget": false }, "free_probe": "Official SEC Company Facts, Submissions and accession-bound Item 703 schema coverage with amendments replayed point-in-time and no prices", "production_data": "PIT XBRL facts, accession-bound Item 703 tables, shares and corporate actions, issuance contamination flags, delistings, borrow, spreads and market impact", "provider_options": [ "SEC EDGAR", "LSEG Fundamentals", "FactSet Fundamentals" ], "execution": [ "Alpaca" ], "status": "manual-blind-label-gate", "literature_review": "docs/design/LITERATURE_REPURCHASE_ISSUANCE_FLOW.md", "literature_review_public": "/research/literature-repurchase-issuance-flow.md", "feasibility": { "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_REPURCHASE_ISSUANCE_FLOW.md", "protocol_public": "/research/repurchase-issuance-flow-feasibility.md", "decision": "BLIND_ITEM703_LABELING_REQUIRED", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "deterministic_cik_sample": 600, "deterministic_item703_sample": 240, "hand_label_sample": 60, "pipeline_status": "SEC_COLLECTION_AND_SEMANTICS_COMPLETE_AWAITING_BLIND_LABELS", "pipeline_tests": 48, "empirical_results": { "manifest_ciks": 600, "companyfacts_payloads": 520, "companyfacts_terminal_404s": 80, "companyfacts_collection_errors": 0, "periodic_filings": 15009, "relevant_fact_rows": 150570, "accession_join_rate": 0.9999269442784087, "context_complete_rate": 0.99488609948861, "direct_repurchase_issuer_year_coverage": 0.46451447604406865, "direct_issuance_issuer_year_coverage": 0.4335126825518832, "amendment_fact_rows_replayed": 2407, "amendment_slice_invariant": true, "quarterized_facts": 35792, "quarterization_fail_closed_facts": 19087, "item703_documents_collected": 240, "item703_labels_required": 60, "documents_parsed": 0, "labels_opened": false, "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "companyfacts_audit_sha256": "fc50a7bf79a17607b2bfd9a270303d432a57b36b3ac40f8eb96c6ad18fda707e", "semantics_audit_sha256": "46315240eb72b40f47be470c9260c446bdda7b06a5b6b7974fd2b3b6352476a3", "item703_documents_result_sha256": "25bd0ba43ba192c3cde7be4fa48bfb187d229ac633ce8643d7a0ce28d5ee5cc3" }, "implemented_commands": [ "uv run python scripts/build_repurchase_issuance_manifest.py", "uv run python scripts/collect_repurchase_issuance_companyfacts.py", "uv run python scripts/collect_repurchase_issuance_submissions.py", "uv run python scripts/audit_repurchase_issuance_companyfacts.py", "uv run python scripts/audit_repurchase_issuance_semantics.py", "uv run python scripts/build_repurchase_item703_manifest.py", "uv run python scripts/collect_repurchase_item703_documents.py", "uv run python scripts/seal_repurchase_item703_labels.py", "uv run python scripts/parse_repurchase_item703_documents.py", "uv run python scripts/audit_repurchase_item703_extraction.py", "uv run python scripts/audit_repurchase_issuance_feasibility.py" ], "manual_gate": "Complete artifacts/feasibility/repurchase_issuance_flow/item703/labels.csv for the frozen 60 documents without viewing parser output, then seal it before parsing.", "fail_closed_state": "Every stage binds exact manifest identities, immutable part hashes and zero return access, and exits nonzero when its required seal or gate is absent. Blind labels must be sealed against the parser source before parser output exists. Company Facts or Item 703 extraction alone can never pass full feasibility; combined coverage, amendment replay, quarterization and contamination gates remain mandatory." }, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "kill": "Kill if completed repurchases and issuance cannot be separated point-in-time from authorizations, amendments, stock compensation, splits, acquisitions and custom tags, or if a later residual is subsumed by existing equity sleeves." } ], "retired_candidates": [ { "id": "futures_curve_carry", "public_result": "futcarry_xs and xasset_carry", "verdict": "KILLED" }, { "id": "options_variance_premium", "public_result": "equity_vrp and crypto_vrp", "verdict": "KILLED" }, { "id": "post_earnings_drift", "public_result": "equity_pead", "verdict": "KILLED" }, { "id": "crypto_basis_curve", "public_result": "crypto_dated_basis and funding_termstructure", "verdict": "KILLED" }, { "id": "rates_curve_relative_value", "public_result": "rates_curve_carry", "verdict": "KILLED" }, { "id": "short_horizon_reversal", "public_result": "PRE_REGISTRATION Sleeve E and reversal IC campaign", "verdict": "KILLED" }, { "id": "fx_value_carry", "public_result": "fx_carry_ratediff, fx_carry_trend_overlay and xasset_value", "verdict": "KILLED" }, { "id": "cross_asset_defensive", "public_result": "quality, BAB and tail_overlay campaigns", "verdict": "KILLED" }, { "id": "insider_purchase_clusters", "public_result": "artifacts/probe/insider_purchase_clusters/result.json", "verdict": "KILLED", "net_sharpe": -0.23152401026980723, "dsr": 1.8267699207635905e-07, "newey_west_t": -0.7490229630283064, "average_correlation": -0.06552902584399353, "max_pair_correlation": 0.056953006445850426, "capacity_p05_usd_at_1pct_adv": 5314909.588793404, "reason": "The sleeve was genuinely diversifying and capacity-feasible, but had negative OOS returns, DSR effectively zero, and reduced the fixed-weight ALPHAC book in three of four leave-one-year-out recomputations. The sign is not inverted and the parameters are not retuned." }, { "id": "commodity_inventory_seasonal", "public_result": "artifacts/probe/eia_petroleum_inventory/result.json", "verdict": "KILLED", "net_sharpe": -0.5892034349114502, "dsr": 7.374195622900468e-11, "newey_west_t": -1.844976942634086, "average_correlation": 0.0011844131458630738, "max_pair_correlation": 0.03225901275187299, "capacity_p05_usd_at_1pct_adv": 14919.439128870974, "reason": "The one-shot petroleum proxy was exceptionally orthogonal but had strongly negative OOS returns, failed both standalone product checks, failed mean-zero and leave-one-year-out book stability, and was severely capacity-constrained by UGA. The sign is not inverted and the parameters are not retuned." } ], "retired_admission_gates": { "deflated_sharpe_min": "Retired as a per-sleeve gate in v6 because it measured the wrong object and silently required about eight times the declared net-Sharpe floor. Per-sleeve DSR remains a mandatory published measurement.", "book_deflated_sharpe_min": "Re-scoped prospectively in v7 from an incremental admission gate to a 0.95 portfolio-maturity gate. Full-union book DSR remains mandatory to measure and publish at every admission; known results were not regraded.", "average_pairwise_correlation_max": "Replaced prospectively in v7 because applying a final global level to each incremental admission was path-dependent. A candidate must now average no more than zero correlation to the existing book and must strictly reduce the book's global average; the -0.03 portfolio objective remains mandatory to publish." }, "admission_contract_schema": "canli.alphac-sleeve-admission-contract.v7", "admission_contract_public_path": "/glassbox/sleeve_admission_contract.json", "frontier_arithmetic": { "book_sharpe_ceiling_at_zero_global_correlation": { "s_bar_four_curve_basis": 1.736129027463109, "s_bar_traded_basis": 1.979336757603415 }, "claim_boundary": "Derived from the governing identity alone. Reads no data, runs no backtest, spends no hypothesis, and claims no candidate's correlation, sign or return.", "correlation_required_at_measured_quality": { "four_curve_basis": { "rho_bar_required_for_2.25": -0.031124117758784424, "rho_bar_required_for_3.0": -0.05116116239316239 }, "note": "The other route to the same place: hold quality where it is measured today and read off the average pairwise correlation each end of the band demands.", "traded_basis": { "rho_bar_required_for_2.25": -0.017393747388414055, "rho_bar_required_for_3.0": -0.04343782905982906 } }, "honest_reading": "Tightening the correlation ceiling from 0.15 to 0.00 removes a ceiling that sat BELOW the objective at every plausible quality, which is why the v4 gate could not have produced the objective at any sleeve count. It does not on its own deliver the objective. At the gate exactly, fourteen sleeves of today's measured quality reach the figure recorded above, and the remaining distance has to be bought with per-sleeve quality, genuinely negative correlation, or both. Publishing this is the point: a target sitting beside a gate that forbids it is not a stretch goal.", "identity": "S_book = s_bar * sqrt(N / (1 + (N - 1) * rho_bar))", "incremental_book_average_correlation_delta_gate_exclusive": 0.0, "incremental_candidate_average_correlation_gate": 0.0, "incremental_gates_alone_establish_objective_ceiling": false, "incremental_gates_alone_establish_objective_floor": false, "legacy_global_zero_correlation_reference": 0.0, "psd_floor_at_target_n": -0.07692307692307693, "psd_floor_note": "Average pairwise correlation cannot fall below -1/(N-1) for any real correlation matrix. At fourteen sleeves that floor is far from binding, which is why a negative average is arithmetically available here and is not at 250 sleeves.", "quality_precondition_at_the_gate": { "note": "What the tightened correlation gate alone does NOT buy. At the gate exactly, reaching each end of the objective band requires at least this average standalone Sharpe across fourteen sleeves.", "s_bar_measured_four_curve_basis": 0.464, "s_bar_measured_traded_basis": 0.529, "s_bar_required_for_2.25": 0.6013377943029549, "s_bar_required_for_3.0": 0.8017837257372732 }, "target_sleeve_count": 14 }, "source_path": "config/sleeve_discovery.json" }, "sleeve_atlas": { "atlas": { "schema": "canli.alphac-sleeve-atlas.v2", "as_of": "2026-08-22", "objective": { "target_total_sleeves": 14, "minimum_new_sleeves": 10, "portfolio_sharpe_target": [ 2.25, 3.0 ], "portfolio_max_drawdown_target": 0.11, "targets_are_admission_evidence": false, "portfolio_max_drawdown_statistic": "expected_maximum_drawdown", "portfolio_p95_max_drawdown_is_gated": false, "portfolio_p95_max_drawdown_must_be_published": true, "average_pairwise_correlation_objective": -0.03, "average_pairwise_correlation_objective_note": "An objective, not a gate. -0.03 is the average pairwise correlation at which fourteen sleeves of measured quality reach 2.5. Thresholds are gates and live in 'thresholds'; anything that is not enforced must not sit there wearing a gate's costume.", "honest_forward_sharpe_target": 1.5, "superseded_in_sample_sharpe_target": [ 2.0, 2.5 ], "superseded_reason": "Stated in-sample with no haircut named, and unreachable as a forward result: a verified forward 2.0 at measured per-sleeve quality needs an average pairwise correlation of -0.062 against a PSD floor of -0.077. Withdrawn 2026-08-21 and replaced with an honest FORWARD target of 1.5, which is inside the floor at every plausible quality.", "backtest_to_forward_haircut": { "measured_on_this_book": "in-sample equal-risk ~1.04 against an honest forward of 0.3-0.9", "range": [ 1.5, 3.0 ], "note": "The haircut IS the uncertainty. Until the forward record is long enough to speak, every in-sample figure should be read through it, and the range is this book's own published pair rather than a convention borrowed from elsewhere." }, "implied_in_sample_target": { "at_1_5x_haircut": 2.25, "at_2_0x_haircut": 3.0, "at_3_0x_haircut": 4.5 }, "what_reaching_it_requires": "Both halves, not either: an average pairwise correlation meaningfully BELOW zero, and per-sleeve quality above roughly 0.60. At today's measured 0.469 the forward target is reachable only at a correlation near -0.030 and only on the optimistic haircut.", "why_this_is_not_a_retreat": "The rarer thing was never the number. A forward Sharpe near 1.5 that is genuinely verifiable -- signed forward record, every killed candidate published in full, gates that provably bite, and the arithmetic showing where the gate falls short of the target printed on the same page as the target -- is harder to find than a 2.5 nobody can check.", "portfolio_sharpe_target_unit": "IN-SAMPLE, being the band that an honest forward 1.5 implies at the 1.5x and 2.0x ends of this book's own measured haircut. The headline target is honest_forward_sharpe_target.", "targets_are_promises": false }, "governance": { "stage": "taxonomy_before_returns", "cells_per_family": 6, "family_wise_accounting": true, "cell_is_independent_trial": false, "return_admission": "prohibited until literature, PIT lineage, execution, overlap and preregistration gates pass", "novelty_registry": "config/sleeve_family_lineage.json", "novelty_is_performance_evidence": false }, "summary": { "families": 40, "cells": 240, "asset_groups": 20, "return_data_opened": 0, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "family_return_data_opened": 1, "family_return_hypotheses_spent": 1, "lineage_classifications": { "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY": 10, "DUPLICATE_OVERLAP": 7, "IDENTITY_REDESIGN_REQUIRED": 2, "NOVEL_ATLAS": 16, "RETIRED_KILLED": 5 } }, "lineage_claim_boundary": "This registry governs novelty only. A NOVEL_ATLAS label means no documented identity-level match was found in the enumerated internal ledgers; it is not evidence of economic novelty, performance, or admission.", "current_sleeves": [ { "id": "alphaforge", "aliases": [ "crypto_carry_wk" ], "mechanism": "crypto funding-rate carry" }, { "id": "alphamax", "aliases": [ "k30_dn_63" ], "mechanism": "US equity cross-sectional momentum" }, { "id": "managed_futures", "aliases": [ "AlphaTrend" ], "mechanism": "multi-asset time-series momentum" }, { "id": "alphavintage", "aliases": [ "AlphaVintage" ], "mechanism": "PIT CPI-surprise equity size spread" } ], "families": [ { "id": "earnings_narrative_change", "asset_group": "equity", "mechanism": "filing-language change residualized to surprise and momentum", "universes": [ "us_large_mid", "us_small_mid" ], "horizons": [ "21d", "63d", "126d" ], "point_in_time_data": "SEC filing acceptance time and immutable text", "execution_model": "next eligible open, beta/sector neutral", "primary_friction": "open spread, delistings, corporate actions", "overlap_guard": "AlphaMax and earnings-event beta", "literature_status": "SOURCE_REVIEWED", "program_status": "RETIRED_KILLED", "lineage_classification": "RETIRED_KILLED", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [ "docs/design/PREREG_EARNINGS_NARRATIVE_CHANGE.md", "artifacts/probe/earnings_narrative_change/result.json" ], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": { "return_data_opened": true, "return_hypotheses_spent": 1, "return_identity_id": "earnings_narrative_change_v1", "verdict": "KILL", "result": "artifacts/probe/earnings_narrative_change/result.json", "technically_eligible": false } }, { "id": "analyst_revision_drift", "asset_group": "equity", "mechanism": "as-of consensus revision diffusion", "universes": [ "us_large_mid", "developed_ex_us" ], "horizons": [ "21d", "63d", "126d" ], "point_in_time_data": "contributor-level as-of estimate history", "execution_model": "next open after timestamp, sector neutral", "primary_friction": "timestamp latency, crowding, borrow", "overlap_guard": "earnings surprise and price momentum", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "merger_arbitrage", "asset_group": "event_equity", "mechanism": "announced cash-deal spread convergence", "universes": [ "us_cash_deals", "developed_cash_deals" ], "horizons": [ "5d", "21d", "to_resolution" ], "point_in_time_data": "deal terms, amendments and outcomes as known", "execution_model": "deal basket with break-risk cap", "primary_friction": "break gaps, borrow, partial fills", "overlap_guard": "market beta and generic value", "literature_status": "SOURCE_REVIEWED", "program_status": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "lineage_classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [ "config/sleeve_discovery.json#candidates:merger_arbitrage", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_MERGER_ARBITRAGE.md", "artifacts/feasibility/merger_arbitrage/result.json" ], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "tender_offer_spread", "asset_group": "event_equity", "mechanism": "fixed-price tender convergence", "universes": [ "us_issuer_tenders", "us_third_party_tenders" ], "horizons": [ "5d", "21d", "to_expiry" ], "point_in_time_data": "SC TO and recommendation documents by acceptance time", "execution_model": "proration-aware event basket", "primary_friction": "proration, withdrawal, odd-lot constraints", "overlap_guard": "merger arbitrage", "literature_status": "SOURCE_REVIEWED", "program_status": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "lineage_classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [ "config/sleeve_discovery.json#candidates:merger_arbitrage.tender_only_document_feasibility", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_TENDER_OFFER_SPREAD.md", "artifacts/feasibility/tender_offer_spread/result.json" ], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "index_reconstitution_flow", "asset_group": "event_equity", "mechanism": "forced benchmark demand between announcement and effective date", "universes": [ "us_large_indices", "global_developed_indices" ], "horizons": [ "1d", "5d", "to_effective" ], "point_in_time_data": "point-in-time announcements, float and weights", "execution_model": "auction-aware long/short basket", "primary_friction": "closing-auction impact and crowding", "overlap_guard": "ordinary momentum", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "active_ownership_escalation", "asset_group": "event_equity", "mechanism": "specific Schedule 13D control intent", "universes": [ "us_all_cap", "us_small_mid" ], "horizons": [ "21d", "63d", "126d" ], "point_in_time_data": "13D/13D-A state and Item 4 at acceptance time", "execution_model": "next-open diversified target basket", "primary_friction": "gaps, liquidity, amendments", "overlap_guard": "small-cap value and momentum", "literature_status": "SOURCE_REVIEWED", "program_status": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "lineage_classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [ "config/sleeve_discovery.json#candidates:active_ownership_escalation", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ACTIVE_OWNERSHIP_13D.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ACTIVE_OWNERSHIP_13D_SCHEMA_V2.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ACTIVE_OWNERSHIP_13D_ITEM4.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ACTIVE_OWNERSHIP_13D_ITEM4_V2.md", "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_item4_v2/result.json" ], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "spin_off_dislocation", "asset_group": "event_equity", "mechanism": "forced selling and information gaps around separations", "universes": [ "us_spinoffs", "developed_spinoffs" ], "horizons": [ "5d", "63d", "252d" ], "point_in_time_data": "Form 10/8-K terms and when-issued lineage", "execution_model": "parent/stub and child baskets", "primary_friction": "when-issued liquidity, borrow, basis", "overlap_guard": "size, value and issuance", "literature_status": "SOURCE_REVIEWED", "program_status": "IDENTITY_REDESIGN_REQUIRED", "lineage_classification": "IDENTITY_REDESIGN_REQUIRED", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [ "docs/design/LITERATURE_SPIN_OFF_DISLOCATION.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_SPIN_OFF_DISLOCATION.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_SPIN_OFF_DOCUMENT_SCHEMA.md", "artifacts/feasibility/spin_off_dislocation/document_schema_result.json" ], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "repurchase_issuance_flow", "asset_group": "equity", "mechanism": "net corporate equity demand from completed repurchases versus issuance", "universes": [ "us_large_mid", "us_small_mid" ], "horizons": [ "21d", "63d", "252d" ], "point_in_time_data": "filing-time shares, offerings and completed repurchases", "execution_model": "sector-neutral cross-section", "primary_friction": "reporting lag, liquidity, borrow", "overlap_guard": "value, profitability and momentum", "literature_status": "SOURCE_REVIEWED", "program_status": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "lineage_classification": "DUPLICATE_OVERLAP", "lineage_aliases": [ "eq_net_issuance" ], "lineage_evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:eq_net_issuance", "docs/design/LITERATURE_REPURCHASE_ISSUANCE_FLOW.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_REPURCHASE_ISSUANCE_FLOW.md", "artifacts/feasibility/repurchase_issuance_flow/identity_overlap_audit.json" ], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "customer_supplier_propagation", "asset_group": "equity_network", "mechanism": "idiosyncratic shocks propagating through production links", "universes": [ "us_public_network", "global_developed_network" ], "horizons": [ "5d", "21d", "63d" ], "point_in_time_data": "point-in-time named relationships and filing times", "execution_model": "network-residualized basket", "primary_friction": "stale links, concentration, open gaps", "overlap_guard": "industry and price momentum", "literature_status": "SOURCE_REVIEWED", "program_status": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "lineage_classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [ "docs/design/LITERATURE_CUSTOMER_SUPPLIER_PROPAGATION.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_CUSTOMER_SUPPLIER_PROPAGATION.md", "artifacts/feasibility/customer_supplier_propagation/result.json" ], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "securities_lending_supply", "asset_group": "equity_short", "mechanism": "borrow-fee and utilization changes from constrained supply", "universes": [ "us_easy_to_borrow", "us_hard_to_borrow" ], "horizons": [ "5d", "21d", "63d" ], "point_in_time_data": "historical fees, availability, locates and recalls", "execution_model": "availability-capped long/short basket", "primary_friction": "recalls, locate failure, fee jumps", "overlap_guard": "short interest and momentum", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "short_interest_revision", "asset_group": "equity_short", "mechanism": "publication-aware changes in short positioning", "universes": [ "us_large_mid", "us_small_mid" ], "horizons": [ "10d", "21d", "42d" ], "point_in_time_data": "exchange publication dates and settlement lags", "execution_model": "beta/sector-neutral basket", "primary_friction": "borrow availability and squeeze gaps", "overlap_guard": "securities lending and momentum", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "RETIRED_KILLED", "lineage_aliases": [ "equity_short_interest_dtc" ], "lineage_evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:equity_short_interest_dtc" ], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "closed_end_fund_discount", "asset_group": "fund_relative_value", "mechanism": "published NAV discount mean reversion", "universes": [ "us_equity_cef", "us_bond_cef" ], "horizons": [ "5d", "21d", "63d" ], "point_in_time_data": "NAV publication time, distributions and reorganizations", "execution_model": "discount-ranked hedged basket", "primary_friction": "stale NAV, spread, leverage events", "overlap_guard": "credit beta and value", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "RETIRED_KILLED", "lineage_aliases": [ "cef_discount" ], "lineage_evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:cef_discount" ], "forward_experiment": { "status": "FORWARD_ONLY", "evaluation": "~2027-07-19 after at least 48 weekly observations", "source": "scripts/probe_cef_discount.py" }, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "bond_etf_nav_dislocation", "asset_group": "credit", "mechanism": "ETF price versus executable underlying-value dislocation", "universes": [ "us_ig_etf", "us_hy_etf" ], "horizons": [ "intraday", "1d", "5d" ], "point_in_time_data": "timestamped basket, evaluated prices and TRACE prints", "execution_model": "secondary-market ETF execution only", "primary_friction": "stale marks, AP asymmetry, crisis spreads", "overlap_guard": "credit beta and liquidity beta", "literature_status": "SOURCE_REVIEWED", "program_status": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "lineage_classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [ "docs/design/LITERATURE_BOND_ETF_NAV_DISLOCATION.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_BOND_ETF_NAV_DISLOCATION.md", "artifacts/feasibility/bond_etf_nav_dislocation/result.json" ], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "credit_equity_relative_value", "asset_group": "credit", "mechanism": "issuer equity-credit dislocation after common-risk neutralization", "universes": [ "us_ig_issuers", "us_hy_issuers" ], "horizons": [ "5d", "21d", "63d" ], "point_in_time_data": "PIT issuer mapping, bond prices and corporate actions", "execution_model": "liquidity-capped matched issuer basket", "primary_friction": "TRACE liquidity, borrow, duration hedge", "overlap_guard": "quality, distress and momentum", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "fallen_angel_flow", "asset_group": "credit", "mechanism": "forced selling around investment-grade downgrades", "universes": [ "us_corporates", "global_developed_corporates" ], "horizons": [ "5d", "21d", "63d" ], "point_in_time_data": "rating action timestamps and index eligibility", "execution_model": "bond/ETF proxy basket with duration hedge", "primary_friction": "dealer inventory, index timing, bid-ask", "overlap_guard": "credit momentum and quality", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "municipal_taxable_basis", "asset_group": "credit", "mechanism": "tax-adjusted municipal versus Treasury/credit dislocation", "universes": [ "us_ig_muni", "us_high_yield_muni" ], "horizons": [ "5d", "21d", "63d" ], "point_in_time_data": "MSRB prints, calls, tax and reference data", "execution_model": "duration/quality-matched basket", "primary_friction": "sparse prints, mark staleness, calls", "overlap_guard": "duration and generic credit", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "options_dispersion", "asset_group": "equity_options", "mechanism": "index versus constituent implied-correlation dispersion", "universes": [ "spx_top50", "spx_sector_baskets" ], "horizons": [ "7d", "30d", "60d" ], "point_in_time_data": "historical surfaces and membership at quote time", "execution_model": "defined-loss delta-hedged option book", "primary_friction": "multi-leg spread, impact, gap hedging", "overlap_guard": "short index variance", "literature_status": "SOURCE_REVIEWED", "program_status": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "lineage_classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [ "config/sleeve_discovery.json#candidates:options_dispersion", "docs/design/LITERATURE_OPTIONS_DISPERSION.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_OPTIONS_DISPERSION.md" ], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "options_skew_carry", "asset_group": "equity_options", "mechanism": "cross-sectional downside skew compensation", "universes": [ "spx_index", "liquid_single_names" ], "horizons": [ "7d", "30d", "60d" ], "point_in_time_data": "quote-level surfaces, dividends and actions", "execution_model": "defined-risk verticals with hedge ledger", "primary_friction": "wing liquidity, jumps, assignment", "overlap_guard": "variance premium and equity beta", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "DUPLICATE_OVERLAP", "lineage_aliases": [ "equity_vrp" ], "lineage_evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:equity_vrp" ], "forward_experiment": null, "return_outcome": null }, { "id": "options_term_structure", "asset_group": "equity_options", "mechanism": "relative option variance across maturities", "universes": [ "spx_index", "liquid_sector_etfs" ], "horizons": [ "7d_30d", "30d_60d", "60d_90d" ], "point_in_time_data": "synchronized surfaces and forward dividends", "execution_model": "vega/gamma-balanced calendars", "primary_friction": "calendar spread fills and gap vega", 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"crypto_options_surface__eth_options__7d", "family_id": "crypto_options_surface", "asset_group": "crypto_options", "mechanism": "relative skew/term compensation with defined loss", "universe": "eth_options", "horizon": "7d", "point_in_time_data": "quote-level surfaces, expiries and DVOL state", "execution_model": "delta-hedged defined-risk structures", "primary_friction": "24/7 gaps, spread, exchange default", "overlap_guard": "crypto variance premium and trend", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "DUPLICATE_OVERLAP", "lineage_aliases": [ "crypto_vrp" ], "lineage_evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:crypto_vrp" ], "forward_experiment": null, "screen_state": "UNSCREENED_NO_RETURN", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "family_trial_account": "crypto_options_surface" }, { "id": "crypto_options_surface__eth_options__30d", "family_id": "crypto_options_surface", "asset_group": 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"program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "forward_experiment": null, "screen_state": "UNSCREENED_NO_RETURN", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "family_trial_account": "catastrophe_bond_event_risk" }, { "id": "catastrophe_bond_event_risk__global_multi_peril__monthly", "family_id": "catastrophe_bond_event_risk", "asset_group": "insurance_linked", "mechanism": "seasonal/event insurance risk transfer", "universe": "global_multi_peril", "horizon": "monthly", "point_in_time_data": "security triggers, event notices and executable marks", "execution_model": "diversified security-level basket", "primary_friction": "mark staleness, trapped collateral, trigger basis", "overlap_guard": "credit beta and climate seasonality", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], 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0, "family_trial_account": "catastrophe_bond_event_risk" }, { "id": "catastrophe_bond_event_risk__global_multi_peril__annual", "family_id": "catastrophe_bond_event_risk", "asset_group": "insurance_linked", "mechanism": "seasonal/event insurance risk transfer", "universe": "global_multi_peril", "horizon": "annual", "point_in_time_data": "security triggers, event notices and executable marks", "execution_model": "diversified security-level basket", "primary_friction": "mark staleness, trapped collateral, trigger basis", "overlap_guard": "credit beta and climate seasonality", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "forward_experiment": null, "screen_state": "UNSCREENED_NO_RETURN", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "family_trial_account": "catastrophe_bond_event_risk" }, { "id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation__liquid_em_ig__5d", "family_id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "asset_group": "sovereign", "mechanism": "local FX versus sovereign credit repricing mismatch", "universe": "liquid_em_ig", "horizon": "5d", "point_in_time_data": "PIT CDS, NDF/FX, curves and events", "execution_model": "beta/duration-neutral matched-country basket", "primary_friction": "jump risk, capital controls, liquidity", "overlap_guard": "EM carry and global risk beta", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "forward_experiment": null, "screen_state": "UNSCREENED_NO_RETURN", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "family_trial_account": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation" }, { "id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation__liquid_em_ig__21d", "family_id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "asset_group": "sovereign", "mechanism": "local FX versus sovereign credit repricing mismatch", "universe": "liquid_em_ig", "horizon": "21d", "point_in_time_data": "PIT CDS, NDF/FX, curves and events", "execution_model": "beta/duration-neutral matched-country basket", "primary_friction": "jump risk, capital controls, liquidity", "overlap_guard": "EM carry and global risk beta", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "forward_experiment": null, "screen_state": "UNSCREENED_NO_RETURN", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "family_trial_account": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation" }, { "id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation__liquid_em_ig__63d", "family_id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "asset_group": "sovereign", "mechanism": "local FX versus sovereign credit repricing mismatch", "universe": "liquid_em_ig", "horizon": "63d", "point_in_time_data": "PIT CDS, NDF/FX, curves and events", "execution_model": "beta/duration-neutral matched-country basket", "primary_friction": "jump risk, capital controls, liquidity", "overlap_guard": "EM carry and global risk beta", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "forward_experiment": null, "screen_state": "UNSCREENED_NO_RETURN", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "family_trial_account": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation" }, { "id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation__liquid_em_hy__5d", "family_id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "asset_group": "sovereign", "mechanism": "local FX versus sovereign credit repricing mismatch", "universe": "liquid_em_hy", "horizon": "5d", "point_in_time_data": "PIT CDS, NDF/FX, curves and events", "execution_model": "beta/duration-neutral matched-country basket", "primary_friction": "jump risk, capital controls, liquidity", "overlap_guard": "EM carry and global risk beta", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "forward_experiment": null, "screen_state": "UNSCREENED_NO_RETURN", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "family_trial_account": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation" }, { "id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation__liquid_em_hy__21d", "family_id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "asset_group": "sovereign", "mechanism": "local FX versus sovereign credit repricing mismatch", "universe": "liquid_em_hy", "horizon": "21d", "point_in_time_data": "PIT CDS, NDF/FX, curves and events", "execution_model": "beta/duration-neutral matched-country basket", "primary_friction": "jump risk, capital controls, liquidity", "overlap_guard": "EM carry and global risk beta", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "forward_experiment": null, "screen_state": "UNSCREENED_NO_RETURN", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "family_trial_account": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation" }, { "id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation__liquid_em_hy__63d", "family_id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "asset_group": "sovereign", "mechanism": "local FX versus sovereign credit repricing mismatch", "universe": "liquid_em_hy", "horizon": "63d", "point_in_time_data": "PIT CDS, NDF/FX, curves and events", "execution_model": "beta/duration-neutral matched-country basket", "primary_friction": "jump risk, capital controls, liquidity", "overlap_guard": "EM carry and global risk beta", "literature_status": "PENDING_SOURCE_REVIEW", "program_status": "ATLAS_ONLY", "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "forward_experiment": null, "screen_state": "UNSCREENED_NO_RETURN", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "family_trial_account": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation" } ], "content_hash": "sha256:f1feb79173794e13cdae737d7679cc56e9cc42657507f1484c095e4c0252ffd2" }, "audit": { "schema": "canli.alphac-sleeve-atlas-audit.v2", "as_of": "2026-08-16", "atlas_content_hash": "sha256:f1feb79173794e13cdae737d7679cc56e9cc42657507f1484c095e4c0252ffd2", "stage": "NO_RETURN_TAXONOMY_AND_GOVERNANCE", "claim_boundary": "Passing this audit is not return evidence and does not create a sleeve. It only permits a separately sealed key-free feasibility review.", "structural_gates": [ "unique_identity", "known_family", "mechanism_declared", "point_in_time_requirement_declared", "execution_model_declared", "primary_friction_declared", "overlap_guard_declared", "universe_declared", "horizon_declared", "family_trial_account_bound", "returns_fail_closed", "lineage_classification_declared" ], "summary": { "cells_audited": 240, "families_audited": 40, "asset_groups_audited": 20, "gate_evaluations": 2880, "governance_rejections": 0, "lineage_families": { "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY": 10, "DUPLICATE_OVERLAP": 7, "IDENTITY_REDESIGN_REQUIRED": 2, "NOVEL_ATLAS": 16, "RETIRED_KILLED": 5 }, "lineage_cells": { "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY": 60, "DUPLICATE_OVERLAP": 42, "IDENTITY_REDESIGN_REQUIRED": 12, "NOVEL_ATLAS": 96, "RETIRED_KILLED": 30 }, "retired_killed": 24, "forward_only_monitoring": 6, "overlap_review_required": 42, "identity_redesign_required": 12, "literature_review_required": 96, 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false, "decision": "RETIRED_KILLED", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, { "id": "earnings_narrative_change__us_large_mid__63d", "family_id": "earnings_narrative_change", "asset_group": "equity", "gates": { "unique_identity": true, "known_family": true, "mechanism_declared": true, "point_in_time_requirement_declared": true, "execution_model_declared": true, "primary_friction_declared": true, "overlap_guard_declared": true, "universe_declared": true, "horizon_declared": true, "family_trial_account_bound": true, "returns_fail_closed": true, "lineage_classification_declared": true }, "structural_pass": true, "literature_pass": true, "lineage_classification": "RETIRED_KILLED", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [ "docs/design/PREREG_EARNINGS_NARRATIVE_CHANGE.md", "artifacts/probe/earnings_narrative_change/result.json" ], "lineage_permits_feasibility": false, "decision": "RETIRED_KILLED", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, { "id": 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"family_trial_account_bound": true, "returns_fail_closed": true, "lineage_classification_declared": true }, "structural_pass": true, "literature_pass": false, "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "lineage_permits_feasibility": true, "decision": "LITERATURE_REVIEW_REQUIRED", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, { "id": "catastrophe_bond_event_risk__global_multi_peril__quarterly", "family_id": "catastrophe_bond_event_risk", "asset_group": "insurance_linked", "gates": { "unique_identity": true, "known_family": true, "mechanism_declared": true, "point_in_time_requirement_declared": true, "execution_model_declared": true, "primary_friction_declared": true, "overlap_guard_declared": true, "universe_declared": true, "horizon_declared": true, "family_trial_account_bound": true, "returns_fail_closed": true, "lineage_classification_declared": true }, "structural_pass": true, "literature_pass": false, 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"return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, { "id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation__liquid_em_ig__5d", "family_id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "asset_group": "sovereign", "gates": { "unique_identity": true, "known_family": true, "mechanism_declared": true, "point_in_time_requirement_declared": true, "execution_model_declared": true, "primary_friction_declared": true, "overlap_guard_declared": true, "universe_declared": true, "horizon_declared": true, "family_trial_account_bound": true, "returns_fail_closed": true, "lineage_classification_declared": true }, "structural_pass": true, "literature_pass": false, "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "lineage_permits_feasibility": true, "decision": "LITERATURE_REVIEW_REQUIRED", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, { "id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation__liquid_em_ig__21d", "family_id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "asset_group": "sovereign", "gates": { "unique_identity": true, "known_family": true, "mechanism_declared": true, "point_in_time_requirement_declared": true, "execution_model_declared": true, "primary_friction_declared": true, "overlap_guard_declared": true, "universe_declared": true, "horizon_declared": true, "family_trial_account_bound": true, "returns_fail_closed": true, "lineage_classification_declared": true }, "structural_pass": true, "literature_pass": false, "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "lineage_permits_feasibility": true, "decision": "LITERATURE_REVIEW_REQUIRED", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, { "id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation__liquid_em_ig__63d", "family_id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "asset_group": "sovereign", "gates": { "unique_identity": true, "known_family": true, "mechanism_declared": true, "point_in_time_requirement_declared": true, "execution_model_declared": true, "primary_friction_declared": true, "overlap_guard_declared": true, "universe_declared": true, "horizon_declared": true, "family_trial_account_bound": true, "returns_fail_closed": true, "lineage_classification_declared": true }, "structural_pass": true, "literature_pass": false, "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "lineage_permits_feasibility": true, "decision": "LITERATURE_REVIEW_REQUIRED", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, { "id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation__liquid_em_hy__5d", "family_id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "asset_group": "sovereign", "gates": { "unique_identity": true, "known_family": true, "mechanism_declared": true, "point_in_time_requirement_declared": true, "execution_model_declared": true, "primary_friction_declared": true, "overlap_guard_declared": true, "universe_declared": true, "horizon_declared": true, "family_trial_account_bound": true, "returns_fail_closed": true, "lineage_classification_declared": true }, "structural_pass": true, "literature_pass": false, "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "lineage_permits_feasibility": true, "decision": "LITERATURE_REVIEW_REQUIRED", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, { "id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation__liquid_em_hy__21d", "family_id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "asset_group": "sovereign", "gates": { "unique_identity": true, "known_family": true, "mechanism_declared": true, "point_in_time_requirement_declared": true, "execution_model_declared": true, "primary_friction_declared": true, "overlap_guard_declared": true, "universe_declared": true, "horizon_declared": true, "family_trial_account_bound": true, "returns_fail_closed": true, "lineage_classification_declared": true }, "structural_pass": true, "literature_pass": false, "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "lineage_permits_feasibility": true, "decision": "LITERATURE_REVIEW_REQUIRED", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 }, { "id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation__liquid_em_hy__63d", "family_id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "asset_group": "sovereign", "gates": { "unique_identity": true, "known_family": true, "mechanism_declared": true, "point_in_time_requirement_declared": true, "execution_model_declared": true, "primary_friction_declared": true, "overlap_guard_declared": true, "universe_declared": true, "horizon_declared": true, "family_trial_account_bound": true, "returns_fail_closed": true, "lineage_classification_declared": true }, "structural_pass": true, "literature_pass": false, "lineage_classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "lineage_aliases": [], "lineage_evidence": [], "lineage_permits_feasibility": true, "decision": "LITERATURE_REVIEW_REQUIRED", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0 } ], "content_hash": "sha256:86e6d3a72eaca844154d7beb03ece2e0bf6584f44dc549ff1298ef856ae56de7" }, "sleeve_family_lineage_audit": { "schema": "canli.alphac-sleeve-family-lineage-audit.v1", "stage": "NO_RETURN_IDENTITY_LINEAGE", "claim_boundary": "This audit proves registry consistency against the enumerated internal ledgers. It does not prove global economic novelty, returns, or sleeve admission.", "summary": { "decision": "PASS", "families_audited": 40, "family_failures": 0, "current_book_exact_match": true, "current_sleeves": 4, "kill_ledger_identities": 46, "kill_identities_mapped_to_atlas": 12, "kill_identities_outside_atlas": 34, "classifications": { "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY": 10, "DUPLICATE_OVERLAP": 7, "IDENTITY_REDESIGN_REQUIRED": 2, "NOVEL_ATLAS": 16, "RETIRED_KILLED": 5 }, "return_data_opened": 0, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "family_return_data_opened": 1, "family_return_hypotheses_spent": 1 }, "failed_families": [], "current_book": { "actual": [ "alphaforge", "alphamax", "alphavintage", "managed_futures" ], "registered": [ "alphaforge", "alphamax", "alphavintage", "managed_futures" ] }, "unmapped_kill_identities": [ "alphamax_betaneutral", "alphamax_short_margin_floor", "alphamax_shorttail", "alphamax_volscale", "alphamax_weightgrid", "crypto_lowvol_720", "crypto_short_tsmom", "deephist_quality_top800", "econtrend", "eq_52whigh", "eq_mom_margin", "eq_quality_gp", "eq_value_btp", "equity_pead", "fx_carry_ratediff", "fx_carry_trend_overlay", "fx_trend_cs", "insider_purchase_clusters", "intraday_mom", "letf_eod_flow", "mechflow_tom", "mf_realfutures_breadth", "mf_realfutures_fasttrend", "onchain_carry_filter", "pm_odds_signal", "prereg_bab", "prereg_momentum", "prereg_quality", "prereg_value", "rates_curve_carry", "residual_momentum", "tail_overlay", "xasset_value", "xs_seasonality" ], "family_results": [ { "family_id": "active_ownership_escalation", "classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "aliases": [], "evidence": [ "config/sleeve_discovery.json#candidates:active_ownership_escalation", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ACTIVE_OWNERSHIP_13D.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ACTIVE_OWNERSHIP_13D_SCHEMA_V2.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ACTIVE_OWNERSHIP_13D_ITEM4.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ACTIVE_OWNERSHIP_13D_ITEM4_V2.md", "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_item4_v2/result.json" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "analyst_revision_drift", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "bond_etf_nav_dislocation", "classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "aliases": [], "evidence": [ "docs/design/LITERATURE_BOND_ETF_NAV_DISLOCATION.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_BOND_ETF_NAV_DISLOCATION.md", "artifacts/feasibility/bond_etf_nav_dislocation/result.json" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "carbon_allowance_carry", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "catastrophe_bond_event_risk", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "cftc_hedging_pressure", "classification": "RETIRED_KILLED", "aliases": [ "cot_positioning" ], "evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:cot_positioning" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "closed_end_fund_discount", "classification": "RETIRED_KILLED", "aliases": [ "cef_discount" ], "evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:cef_discount" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "commodity_calendar_seasonality", "classification": "DUPLICATE_OVERLAP", "aliases": [ "futcarry_xs", "xasset_carry" ], "evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:futcarry_xs", "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:xasset_carry" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "credit_equity_relative_value", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "cross_currency_basis", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "crypto_cross_venue_basis", "classification": "RETIRED_KILLED", "aliases": [ "multivenue_funding", "crypto_dated_basis", "funding_termstructure" ], "evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:multivenue_funding", "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:crypto_dated_basis", "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:funding_termstructure" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "crypto_liquidation_pressure", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "crypto_options_surface", "classification": "DUPLICATE_OVERLAP", "aliases": [ "crypto_vrp" ], "evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:crypto_vrp" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "customer_supplier_propagation", "classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "aliases": [], "evidence": [ "docs/design/LITERATURE_CUSTOMER_SUPPLIER_PROPAGATION.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_CUSTOMER_SUPPLIER_PROPAGATION.md", "artifacts/feasibility/customer_supplier_propagation/result.json" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "dealer_gamma_pressure", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "earnings_narrative_change", "classification": "RETIRED_KILLED", "aliases": [], "evidence": [ "docs/design/PREREG_EARNINGS_NARRATIVE_CHANGE.md", "artifacts/probe/earnings_narrative_change/result.json" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "electricity_load_weather_spread", "classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "aliases": [], "evidence": [ "config/sleeve_discovery.json#candidates:electricity_load_weather_spread", "docs/design/LITERATURE_ELECTRICITY_LOAD_WEATHER.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_ELECTRICITY_LOAD_WEATHER.md", "artifacts/feasibility/electricity_load_weather/result.json" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "fallen_angel_flow", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "freight_derivative_dislocation", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "fx_option_risk_reversal", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "index_reconstitution_flow", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "inflation_breakeven_relative_value", "classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "aliases": [], "evidence": [ "docs/design/LITERATURE_INFLATION_BREAKEVEN_RELATIVE_VALUE.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_INFLATION_BREAKEVEN_RELATIVE_VALUE.md", "artifacts/feasibility/inflation_breakeven_relative_value/result.json" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "merger_arbitrage", "classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "aliases": [], "evidence": [ "config/sleeve_discovery.json#candidates:merger_arbitrage", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_MERGER_ARBITRAGE.md", "artifacts/feasibility/merger_arbitrage/result.json" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "mortgage_convexity_pressure", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "municipal_taxable_basis", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "natural_gas_storage_weather", "classification": "DUPLICATE_OVERLAP", "aliases": [ "commodity_inventory_seasonal" ], "evidence": [ "artifacts/probe/eia_petroleum_inventory/result.json", "docs/design/LITERATURE_NATURAL_GAS_STORAGE_WEATHER.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_NATURAL_GAS_STORAGE_WEATHER.md", "artifacts/feasibility/natural_gas_storage_weather/result.json" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "options_dispersion", "classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "aliases": [], "evidence": [ "config/sleeve_discovery.json#candidates:options_dispersion", "docs/design/LITERATURE_OPTIONS_DISPERSION.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_OPTIONS_DISPERSION.md" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "options_skew_carry", "classification": "DUPLICATE_OVERLAP", "aliases": [ "equity_vrp" ], "evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:equity_vrp" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "options_term_structure", "classification": "DUPLICATE_OVERLAP", "aliases": [ "equity_vrp" ], "evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:equity_vrp" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "pre_fomc_announcement_drift", "classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "aliases": [], "evidence": [ "config/sleeve_discovery.json#candidates:pre_fomc_announcement_drift" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "repurchase_issuance_flow", "classification": "DUPLICATE_OVERLAP", "aliases": [ "eq_net_issuance" ], "evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:eq_net_issuance", "docs/design/LITERATURE_REPURCHASE_ISSUANCE_FLOW.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_REPURCHASE_ISSUANCE_FLOW.md", "artifacts/feasibility/repurchase_issuance_flow/identity_overlap_audit.json" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "securities_lending_supply", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "short_interest_revision", "classification": "RETIRED_KILLED", "aliases": [ "equity_short_interest_dtc" ], "evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:equity_short_interest_dtc" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "spin_off_dislocation", "classification": "IDENTITY_REDESIGN_REQUIRED", "aliases": [], "evidence": [ "docs/design/LITERATURE_SPIN_OFF_DISLOCATION.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_SPIN_OFF_DISLOCATION.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_SPIN_OFF_DOCUMENT_SCHEMA.md", "artifacts/feasibility/spin_off_dislocation/document_schema_result.json" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "stablecoin_dislocation", "classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "aliases": [], "evidence": [ "config/sleeve_discovery.json#feasibility_reviews:stablecoin_dislocation", "docs/design/LITERATURE_STABLECOIN_DISLOCATION.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_STABLECOIN_DISLOCATION.md" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "swap_spread_dislocation", "classification": "NOVEL_ATLAS", "aliases": [], "evidence": [], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "tender_offer_spread", "classification": "ACTIVE_FEASIBILITY", "aliases": [], "evidence": [ "config/sleeve_discovery.json#candidates:merger_arbitrage.tender_only_document_feasibility", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_TENDER_OFFER_SPREAD.md", "artifacts/feasibility/tender_offer_spread/result.json" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "treasury_auction_concession", "classification": "IDENTITY_REDESIGN_REQUIRED", "aliases": [], "evidence": [ "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_TREASURY_AUCTION_CONCESSION.md", "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_TREASURY_AUCTION_IDENTITY_TIMING.md", "artifacts/feasibility/treasury_auction_concession/calendar_revision_audit.json" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true }, { "family_id": "volatility_futures_curve", "classification": "DUPLICATE_OVERLAP", "aliases": [ "equity_vrp", "xasset_carry" ], "evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:equity_vrp", "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:xasset_carry" ], "gates": { "aliases_required_when_historical": true, "historical_aliases_exist_in_kill_ledger": true, "evidence_declared_when_non_novel": true, "evidence_resolves": true, "novel_family_has_no_historical_alias": true, "forward_experiment_is_explicit": true, "direct_return_outcome_valid": true }, "pass": true } ], "source_sha256": { "registry": "568f184a42fa815725b7e8fcb48ec701564f1ed9cfd6d991fcc5ea5d379d3ecf", "kill_ledger": "d634d1da8d41442d54787fd81bc0600d3b7a89cde0f3cbd0b9d10ab9d58a25a9", "current_book": "db5855959b9a81b43ed9e2be60e76bb01518e0e03a66ffb26aef940bb620e5af", "discovery": "ad1979533293e5eea12c2d7be4c68d00f0f0bbf9badd81b98716cde50dfeea70" }, "generated_at": "2026-08-25T14:25:35.312579+00:00", "content_hash": "sha256:46c183e0a2bedfa925b1556edd59a0cc15a4517c57d1c590a56625ebeeebc265" }, "atlas_public_path": "/glassbox/sleeve_atlas.json", "audit_public_path": "/glassbox/sleeve_atlas_audit.json", "lineage_audit_public_path": "/glassbox/sleeve_family_lineage_audit.json", "atlas_source_path": "artifacts/discovery/sleeve_atlas.json", "audit_source_path": "artifacts/discovery/sleeve_atlas_audit.json", "lineage_audit_source_path": "artifacts/discovery/sleeve_family_lineage_audit.json" }, "admission_dry_run": { "result": { "book_common_window_days": 728, "book_common_window_is_not_staleness": "An earlier revision of this analysis called two of these curves stale. That was wrong and is corrected here. k30_dn_63 and crypto_carry_wk are BLESSED research artifacts, deliberately frozen -- k30_dn_63 is pinned by a signed construction-drift disclosure in scripts/alphamax_tick.sh, crypto_carry_wk is the canonical universe source several probes cite, and no tick regenerates either. Their 2026-06-01 end is by design. The common window is therefore a structural property of the evidence base, not neglect, and it cannot be extended by re-running anything.", "book_sleeves": [ "AlphaForge", "AlphaMax", "AlphaTrend" ], "book_window_days_production_alignment": 1061, "candidate": "AlphaVintage (cpi_surprise_size)", "checks_evaluated": 85, "claim_boundary": "Admissibility MECHANICS on already-registered identities. Registers no hypothesis identity, proposes no sleeve, and makes no claim about any candidate's edge. Capacity and execution evidence are left EMPTY on purpose so their failures are visible as evidence-gathering work rather than hidden behind a fabricated bundle.", "common_window_days": 728, "commonly_active_days": 728, "curve_provenance": { "AlphaForge": { "file_modified": "2026-06-20", "kind": "blessed research curve, frozen by disclosure protocol", "last_observation": "2026-06-01", "path": "artifacts/walkforward/crypto_carry_wk/equity.parquet" }, "AlphaMax": { "file_modified": "2026-06-20", "kind": "blessed research curve, frozen by disclosure protocol", "last_observation": "2026-06-01", "path": "artifacts/walkforward/k30_dn_63/equity.parquet" }, "AlphaTrend": { "file_modified": "2026-08-21", "kind": "live-forward curve, regenerated by the daily tick", "last_observation": "2026-08-21", "path": "artifacts/walkforward/mf_live_fwd/equity.parquet" } }, "decision": "REJECT_OR_REMEDIATE", "honest_reading": "The numeric failures are the interesting ones: they are what a real candidate cannot talk its way out of. Missing-evidence failures are work not yet done, not a verdict.", "measured": { "average_pairwise_correlation": -0.020296226817491592, "average_pairwise_correlation_upper_95": 0.008420689938888492, "book_expected_shortfall_delta": 0.0014969796640609372, "book_max_drawdown_delta": 0.00019556272489407167, "book_sharpe_delta": -0.006293487015595733, "max_pairwise_correlation": 0.04554952785731474, "net_sharpe": 0.1973903171690239, "stressed_sharpe": 1.4858723920703958 }, "missing_evidence_failures_count": 28, "numeric_gate_failures": [ "threshold:statistics.oos_observations:728<756", "threshold:portfolio.book_sharpe_delta:-0.006293487015595733<=0.0", "threshold:portfolio.minimum_leave_one_period_out_book_sharpe_delta:-0.1373311397081478<=0.0", "threshold:portfolio.book_expected_shortfall_delta:0.0014969796640609372>0.0", "threshold:statistics.book_deflated_sharpe:0.0<0.95", "threshold:portfolio.book_sharpe_delta_lower_95:-0.006293487015595733<=0.0" ], "schema": "canli.alphac-admission-dry-run.v1", "the_observation_gate_is_bounded_by_the_BOOK": "correlation_observations is capped by the common window of candidate AND book, so minimum_oos_observations constrains admission through the BOOK's history as well as the candidate's. On the window measured here that cap is 728 days, below the 756 the contract requires. This is a real property of the gate, not a defect in the candidate: a book whose own common history is short cannot admit anything, however long the candidate's record. Recorded rather than lowered -- a correlation is the quantity this whole programme turns on, and measuring it on one year is the reason the minimum was raised in the first place.", "why_two_counts": "The production combiner aligns to a contiguous epoch-day index and treats an absent day as flat, giving a window of 1061 days. A correlation can only be estimated from days on which both series are genuinely active, which is 728. correlation_observations means the second. Reporting only the first would overstate how well the correlation is known; reporting only the second understates how long the book has run.", "window_end": "2026-06-01", "window_is_bounded_by": "AlphaForge", "window_start": "2023-07-07" }, "public_path": "/glassbox/admission_dry_run.json", "source_path": "artifacts/analysis/admission_dry_run/result.json", "source_sha256": "d0161d9f01fad69239357afe302e6389980f71167d7971c1c5b8860f474c5902" }, "book_without_alphavintage": { "alignment": "alphaforge.portfolio.book.combine_book, the production path: contiguous epoch-day index, an absent day treated as FLAT, pairwise correlation on days where both sleeves are genuinely active.", "claim_boundary": "A measurement of two allocations on one common window, both reported. Opens no new data, registers no hypothesis identity, changes no allocation and recommends nothing. 0 trials.", "common_window_days": 1061, "deltas": { "book_max_drawdown": -0.010553717680605756, "book_sharpe_equal_risk": 0.0062571302080682845, "projected_book_sharpe_at_14_sleeves": -0.014045510490330537, "rho_bar": 0.046335519577918094, "s_bar": 0.09050742076468105 }, "schema": "canli.alphac-book-without-alphavintage.v1", "what_this_does_not_settle": "Removing a sleeve raises s_bar mechanically whenever the sleeve is below average, and that is not evidence the remaining sleeves are better. It also measures both allocations on the window used to compare them, which is in-sample by construction for the comparison itself. The drawdown and correlation effects are the parts that carry information; the s_bar arithmetic is bookkeeping.", "window_note": "Bounded by the BLESSED research curves, which are frozen by disclosure protocol and end 2026-06-01 by design. This is not the live record and cannot be extended by re-running anything.", "with_alphavintage": { "book_max_drawdown": -0.027531208618643443, "book_sharpe_equal_risk": 1.0374404169652185, "book_vol": 0.03365583500999034, "diversification_ratio": 1.9427290802285424, "n": 4, "n_days": 1061, "pairwise_correlations": { "AlphaForge|AlphaMax": -0.015769890554217854, "AlphaForge|AlphaTrend": 0.022859622846078544, "AlphaForge|AlphaVintage": 0.04554952785731474, "AlphaMax|AlphaTrend": 0.21003647886971527, "AlphaMax|AlphaVintage": -0.06216919926552442, "AlphaTrend|AlphaVintage": -0.044267234897722905 }, "per_sleeve_sharpe": { "AlphaForge": 1.1180545274138174, "AlphaMax": 0.7594696554530772, "AlphaTrend": -0.1992641821836501, "AlphaVintage": 0.1973903171690239 }, "projected_book_sharpe_at_14_sleeves": 1.516504535329405, "rho_bar": 0.026039884142607227, "rho_bar_required_at_14": { "2.25": -0.03014919505410216, "3.0": -0.050612768371778624 }, "s_bar": 0.46891257946306714, "s_bar_required_at_14_at_this_rho": { "2.25": 0.6957139126278507, "3.0": 0.9276185501704676 }, "sleeves": [ "AlphaForge", "AlphaMax", "AlphaTrend", "AlphaVintage" ] }, "without_alphavintage": { "book_max_drawdown": -0.0380849262992492, "book_sharpe_equal_risk": 1.0436975471732868, "book_vol": 0.04010312884110022, "diversification_ratio": 1.6425384253390243, "n": 3, "n_days": 1061, "pairwise_correlations": { "AlphaForge|AlphaMax": -0.015769890554217854, "AlphaForge|AlphaTrend": 0.022859622846078544, "AlphaMax|AlphaTrend": 0.21003647886971527 }, "per_sleeve_sharpe": { "AlphaForge": 1.1180545274138174, "AlphaMax": 0.7594696554530772, "AlphaTrend": -0.1992641821836501 }, "projected_book_sharpe_at_14_sleeves": 1.5024590248390746, "rho_bar": 0.07237540372052532, "rho_bar_required_at_14": { "2.25": -0.010350460578653102, "3.0": -0.03947598022933853 }, "s_bar": 0.5594200002277482, "s_bar_required_at_14_at_this_rho": { "2.25": 0.8377566241097655, "3.0": 1.117008832146354 }, "sleeves": [ "AlphaForge", "AlphaMax", "AlphaTrend" ] } }, "cost_model_realism": { "claim_boundary": "Reads the live trading databases read-only. Registers no hypothesis identity, opens no return data, and changes no cost parameter. 0 trials.", "crypto_sleeve": { "all_taker": true, "book_exhausted_count": 0, "database_exists": true, "fills_since_go_live": 0, "fills_total": 24, "modelled_taker_bps": 5.0, "notional_total": 159576.53698200002, "realised_commission_bps_MEASURED": 5.0, "slippage_bps_MEASURED": { "max": -1.2820381337678106, "mean": -3.1810392368418583, "median": -3.3283485071064653, "min": -4.409572260682257, "note": "Recorded against `modeled_price`, so this IS a real execution measurement \u2014 the only one in the book. Negative is favourable. All 24 fills are taker and none exhausted the book." }, "window": [ "2026-07-05", "2026-07-30" ] }, "equity_sleeves": { "AlphaMax": { "commission": "NOT MEASURABLE \u2014 no fee column in this fills table", "database_exists": true, "fills_since_go_live": 1063, "fills_total": 3075, "notional_since_go_live": 748509.4702382392, "slippage_vs_decision_price": "NOT MEASURABLE \u2014 the fills record limit_price, a PADDED marketable limit, not the price the decision was taken at. A fill that beats it is beating the padding.", "submit_to_fill_latency_seconds": { "median": 19884.673, "median_hours": 5.523520277777777, "p90": 20458.357200000002 } }, "AlphaTrend": { "commission": "NOT MEASURABLE \u2014 no fee column in this fills table", "database_exists": true, "fills_since_go_live": 98, "fills_total": 311, "notional_since_go_live": 842220.8265962057, "slippage_vs_decision_price": "NOT MEASURABLE \u2014 the fills record limit_price, a PADDED marketable limit, not the price the decision was taken at. A fill that beats it is beating the padding.", "submit_to_fill_latency_seconds": { "median": 19828.5255, "median_hours": 5.50792375, "p90": 20017.0711 } }, "AlphaVintage": { "commission": "NOT MEASURABLE \u2014 no fee column in this fills table", "database_exists": true, "fills_since_go_live": 15, "fills_total": 15, "notional_since_go_live": 1028168.6236568228, "slippage_vs_decision_price": "NOT MEASURABLE \u2014 the fills record limit_price, a PADDED marketable limit, not the price the decision was taken at. A fill that beats it is beating the padding.", "submit_to_fill_latency_seconds": { "median": 19855.94, "median_hours": 5.515538888888888, "p90": 19966.2726 } } }, "go_live_date": "2026-08-07", "modelled_parameters": { "crypto_taker_bps": 5.0, "default_half_spread_bps": 2.5, "equity_borrow_bps_annual": 50.0, "equity_commission_bps": 1.0, "equity_half_spread_bps": 3.0, "equity_taker_bps": 1.0, "impact_coef": 1.0, "latency_addon_bps": 2.0 }, "schema": "canli.alphac-cost-model-realism.v1", "verdict": "The one checkable component MATCHES exactly. The rest is not checkable from what is recorded, and the latency component is modelled as the wrong kind of quantity. No cost parameter should move on this evidence; the schema should.", "what_cannot_be_asked_and_the_fix": "Slippage against the decision price is not computable for the equity sleeves: the fills record `limit_price`, a PADDED marketable limit, so a fill beating it by 54bp is beating the padding, not the market. Equity commission is not computable either \u2014 there is no fee column. THE FIX IS ONE FIELD: record the reference mid at `submitted_ts` on every order. That single addition turns implementation shortfall from unanswerable into a daily measurement, and it costs nothing to capture at the moment the order is built.", "what_matched": "Crypto commission. Measured 5.00bp against a modelled taker fee of 5.0bp \u2014 exact. The one cost component in the book that can be checked against reality checks out.", "\u26a0\ufe0f_crypto_has_not_traded_since_go_live": { "fills_since_go_live": 0, "last_fill_window": [ "2026-07-05", "2026-07-30" ], "note": "Zero crypto fills since the 2026-08-07 re-baseline, with the last on 2026-07-30, against a weekly rebalance cadence over a fifteen-day record. The sleeve is marking equity but not trading. Surfaced, not diagnosed \u2014 it may be a no-trade band holding, and it may not." }, "\u26a0\ufe0f_the_latency_finding": { "median_submit_to_fill_hours": 5.515538888888888, "modelled_latency_addon_bps": 2.0, "why_this_matters": "Median submit-to-fill latency across the equity sleeves is about 5.5 HOURS, not seconds \u2014 orders are submitted after the close and fill at the next open. The cost model represents latency as a flat 2bp add-on, which is a microstructure quantity. An overnight gap is not a spread: it is unhedged exposure to whatever happens between submission and fill, and its cost is a distribution with a fat tail rather than a constant. This is not evidence the model is wrong by a specific amount \u2014 it is evidence that this component is modelled as the wrong KIND of thing, and nothing here measures its size." } }, "execution_gap_power": { "any_gap_detectable_today": false, "claim_boundary": "Reads trading databases and walk-forward curves read-only. Registers no hypothesis identity and opens no return data. 0 trials.", "go_live_date": "2026-08-07", "schema": "canli.alphac-execution-gap-power.v1", "sleeves": [ { "calendar_days_required_to_detect_1pct": 2446.6434985490123, "common_days": 5, "daily_tracking_sd": 0.0008318286844294201, "days_required_to_detect": { "0.5%": 6752.133186960724, "1.0%": 1688.033296740181, "2.0%": 422.00832418504524, "5.0%": 67.52133186960724 }, "measurable": false, "observed_annualised_gap": -0.11812065834455232, "observed_over_stderr": -1.1269935263895376, "return_observations": 4, "sleeve": "AlphaMax", "standard_error_of_that_gap": 0.10481041423810693, "walkforward": "equity_live_fwd", "window": [ "2026-08-07", "2026-08-14" ] }, { "calendar_days_required_to_detect_1pct": 3356.0783653198646, "common_days": 9, "daily_tracking_sd": 0.0009742369397852844, "days_required_to_detect": { "0.5%": 9261.94932852135, "1.0%": 2315.4873321303376, "2.0%": 578.8718330325844, "5.0%": 92.6194932852135 }, "measurable": false, "observed_annualised_gap": -0.028409575853535318, "observed_over_stderr": -0.32729894849721064, "return_observations": 8, "sleeve": "AlphaTrend", "standard_error_of_that_gap": 0.08680008287218019, "walkforward": "mf_live_fwd", "window": [ "2026-08-07", "2026-08-21" ] } ], "the_answer": "THE RECORD IS TOO SHORT. Overlap between the live marks and a walk-forward that extends into the live period exists for two sleeves and is 5 and 9 days \u2014 four and eight return observations. No execution gap is distinguishable from noise at that length, and the observed divergences below are OBSERVATIONS, not estimates.", "the_quantity_that_answers_it_soonest": "The TRACKING DIFFERENCE d = r_live - r_backtest, not either Sharpe. The two run the same signal on the same days, so their returns are strongly correlated and the difference series is far less noisy than either level. The record needed to detect an execution gap is therefore much shorter than the record needed to establish the edge itself \u2014 which is the useful thing to know.", "verdict": "NOT MEASURABLE YET \u2014 publish the power, not a number", "what_would_change_this": "Time, and nothing else. The days_required figures below are the honest answer to 'when can we ask'. They also depend on the tracking sd being estimated from four and eight observations, which is itself a very noisy estimate \u2014 treat them as an order of magnitude, not a date.", "when_to_look_again": { "a_1pct_annual_gap": { "AlphaMax": "6.7 years", "AlphaTrend": "9.2 years" }, "a_5pct_annual_gap": { "AlphaMax": "3 months", "AlphaTrend": "4 months" }, "note": "The useful output is not a number today but a date. Converted from return observations at 252 trading days a year, and rounded outward because the tracking sd behind them is itself estimated from four and eight observations.", "the_practical_reading": "A LARGE execution gap \u2014 5% of equity a year \u2014 becomes visible in roughly three to four months, so that is when this is worth re-running. A 1% gap needs the better part of a decade and is not answerable by waiting. If a gap that small matters, it has to be attacked by measuring fills directly against their decision prices, not by comparing equity curves." }, "why_only_two_sleeves": "A comparison needs a backtest that covers the live days. The BLESSED research curves (crypto_carry_wk, k30_dn_63) are frozen by disclosure protocol and end 2026-06-01, before go-live, so they cannot answer this question at any record length. Only the live-forward walk-forwards, regenerated by the daily ticks, overlap at all." }, "sleeve_quality_decomposition": { "claim_boundary": "A FIRST-ORDER decomposition from published artifacts, read-only. Each dollar component is converted to an annualised return on starting equity and then to Sharpe points by dividing by realised annual vol, ignoring compounding interaction between components. Registers no hypothesis identity and opens no return data. 0 trials.", "largest_cost_burden": "AlphaForge", "largest_recoverable_component": { "sharpe_points": 0.27452927826105317, "sleeve": "AlphaForge", "turnover_ann": 33.221809, "what_recovering_half_would_be_worth": [ 0.13726463913052658, "Sharpe points on that sleeve, which is roughly a third of that on s_bar across three sleeves." ], "why": "Transaction cost is the only component here that better execution could give back. Signal is construction and funding is a market fact; neither is recovered by executing better. This sleeve carries the largest cost burden by a wide margin, and it is the turnover that drives it." }, "s_bar_basis_note": "s_bar_measured here is the mean of these three FULL-HISTORY backtest Sharpes, each on its own window. It is NOT the 0.469 measured across the four live sleeves on their 1,061-day common window in artifacts/analysis/book_without_alphavintage, and the two must not be compared. Different sleeves, different windows.", "s_bar_measured": 0.6368226666666666, "schema": "canli.alphac-sleeve-quality-decomposition.v1", "sleeves": [ { "asset_class": "equity", "commission_bps_realised": 1.0000000000000002, "commission_dollars_MEASURED": 86.58514275560611, "commission_sharpe_points_MEASURED": 0.0033187712860535787, "funding_dollars_MEASURED": 0.0, "funding_sharpe_points_MEASURED": 0.0, "half_spread_bps_used": 5.0, "market_impact": "NOT SEPARABLE \u2014 see claim boundary", "net_sharpe_published": 0.907084, "notional_traded_total": 865851.427556061, "realised_vol_ann": 0.130716, "residual_signal_sharpe": 0.9269966277163215, "sleeve": "AlphaMax", "spread_dollars_MODELLED": 432.9257137780305, "spread_sharpe_points_MODELLED": 0.01659385643026789, "turnover_ann": 4.111369, "walkforward": "k30_dn_63", "years": 1.995893223819302 }, { "asset_class": "crypto", "commission_bps_realised": 4.999999999999999, "commission_dollars_MEASURED": 7372.717709488012, "commission_sharpe_points_MEASURED": 0.14448909382160693, "funding_dollars_MEASURED": 19500.019816, "funding_sharpe_points_MEASURED": 0.38215761185204505, "half_spread_bps_used": 4.5, "market_impact": "NOT SEPARABLE \u2014 see claim boundary", "net_sharpe_published": 0.67661, "notional_traded_total": 14745435.418976026, "realised_vol_ann": 0.118332, "residual_signal_sharpe": 0.5689816664090082, "sleeve": "AlphaForge", "spread_dollars_MODELLED": 6635.445938539211, "spread_sharpe_points_MODELLED": 0.13004018443944623, "turnover_ann": 33.221809, "walkforward": "crypto_carry_wk", "years": 4.312114989733059 }, { "asset_class": "equity", "commission_bps_realised": 0.9999999999999998, "commission_dollars_MEASURED": 1566.954815484263, "commission_sharpe_points_MEASURED": 0.020755020953943153, "funding_dollars_MEASURED": 0.0, "funding_sharpe_points_MEASURED": 0.0, "half_spread_bps_used": 5.0, "market_impact": "NOT SEPARABLE \u2014 see claim boundary", "net_sharpe_published": 0.326774, "notional_traded_total": 15669548.154842634, "realised_vol_ann": 0.053132, "residual_signal_sharpe": 0.45130412572365897, "sleeve": "AlphaTrend", "spread_dollars_MODELLED": 7834.774077421316, "spread_sharpe_points_MODELLED": 0.10377510476971578, "turnover_ann": 9.693324, "walkforward": "mf_live_fwd", "years": 14.209445585215606 } ], "the_finding": "AlphaTrend is the weakest at 0.327 net Sharpe. Its total modelled-plus-measured cost burden is 0.125 Sharpe points, so recovering ALL of its transaction cost would still leave it at 0.451 before spread and impact are re-charged. The drag is construction, not execution.", "weakest_sleeve": "AlphaTrend", "what_is_measured_and_what_is_not": { "MEASURED": [ "commission \u2014 summed from the `fee` column of every fill", "funding \u2014 the walk-forward's own funding_net" ], "MODELLED": [ "half-spread and latency \u2014 turnover x notional x the DECLARED bps, because the spread is applied to the FILL PRICE and never recorded as a line item" ], "NOT SEPARABLE": [ "market impact \u2014 same reason as spread, and it depends on ADV per name per day, which the published fills do not carry. It is inside the residual." ], "the_trap": "`fees_paid` in every summary.txt is COMMISSION ONLY. Reading it as total transaction cost understates the cost component badly: measured commission is about 1bp against a declared 3bp equity half-spread plus a 2bp latency add-on plus impact. This decomposition reports a RESIDUAL rather than pretending to a full attribution." }, "what_this_does_not_settle": "Whether the modelled spread is the spread actually paid. That is B5's question and it needs the live fills, which the forward record is currently too short to answer." }, "drawdown_live_estimator": { "best_expected_max_drawdown": { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.07961651142754178, "halflife_bars": 7, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.002651750174587392, "median_max_drawdown": 0.07296828964913477, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 3.5728097679213637, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.1353666307587787, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.869413899839946, "realized_book_vol": 0.09986931273260134, "seed_rows": 240, "window_bars": 720 }, "claim_boundary": "A simulation through a vectorized twin of the PRODUCTION covariance estimator, asserted equal to ewma_cov on real states before any result was reported. It changes nothing, registers no hypothesis identity and opens no return data. 0 trials.", "cost_of_each_configuration": [ { "drawdown_bought_pp": 0.0, "extra_turnover_per_year": 0.0, "halflife_bars": 720, "sharpe_cost_at_10bp": 0.0, "sharpe_cost_at_30bp": 0.0, "window_bars": 720 }, { "drawdown_bought_pp": -0.4751127125058083, "extra_turnover_per_year": -0.020834479078943313, "halflife_bars": 252, "sharpe_cost_at_10bp": -0.0002083447907894331, "sharpe_cost_at_30bp": -0.0006250343723682993, "window_bars": 720 }, { "drawdown_bought_pp": 0.8013124720823162, "extra_turnover_per_year": 0.3041766016270506, "halflife_bars": 63, "sharpe_cost_at_10bp": 0.0030417660162705058, "sharpe_cost_at_30bp": 0.009125298048811518, "window_bars": 720 }, { "drawdown_bought_pp": 1.87071389262375, "extra_turnover_per_year": 1.0332741740282807, "halflife_bars": 21, "sharpe_cost_at_10bp": 0.010332741740282807, "sharpe_cost_at_30bp": 0.03099822522084842, "window_bars": 720 }, { "drawdown_bought_pp": 2.2895046587195544, "extra_turnover_per_year": 3.063045227741844, "halflife_bars": 7, "sharpe_cost_at_10bp": 0.030630452277418438, "sharpe_cost_at_30bp": 0.0918913568322553, "window_bars": 720 }, { "drawdown_bought_pp": 0.2485757353727594, "extra_turnover_per_year": 0.16843077622081482, "halflife_bars": 360, "sharpe_cost_at_10bp": 0.001684307762208148, "sharpe_cost_at_30bp": 0.005052923286624444, "window_bars": 360 }, { "drawdown_bought_pp": 1.4143917993503508, "extra_turnover_per_year": 0.2915860944494787, "halflife_bars": 63, "sharpe_cost_at_10bp": 0.002915860944494787, "sharpe_cost_at_30bp": 0.00874758283348436, "window_bars": 360 }, { "drawdown_bought_pp": 0.9861983377253594, "extra_turnover_per_year": 1.1163060739739294, "halflife_bars": 21, "sharpe_cost_at_10bp": 0.011163060739739295, "sharpe_cost_at_30bp": 0.03348918221921788, "window_bars": 360 }, { "drawdown_bought_pp": -0.7849388214015041, "extra_turnover_per_year": 0.29547541975862956, "halflife_bars": 240, "sharpe_cost_at_10bp": 0.0029547541975862954, "sharpe_cost_at_30bp": 0.008864262592758887, "window_bars": 240 }, { "drawdown_bought_pp": 1.4164208018368665, "extra_turnover_per_year": 1.0560626579273902, "halflife_bars": 21, "sharpe_cost_at_10bp": 0.010560626579273901, "sharpe_cost_at_30bp": 0.0316818797378217, "window_bars": 240 }, { "drawdown_bought_pp": 1.7344947853635593, "extra_turnover_per_year": 1.0529678005468286, "halflife_bars": 21, "sharpe_cost_at_10bp": 0.010529678005468286, "sharpe_cost_at_30bp": 0.03158903401640486, "window_bars": 168 } ], "cost_unit_warning": "Turnover is a MULTIPLE OF EQUITY per year; a round-trip cost in basis points is a fraction of the NOTIONAL TRADED. The annual drag is turnover * bps/10000 of equity. Dividing by 100 instead overstates it a hundredfold, which has happened once in this project already.", "excluded_deliberately": "Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage. artifacts/analysis/ledoit_wolf_effective_sample measured it separately: immaterial at the production setting (0.36% ex-ante vol error) and material at a short halflife (4.46% mean, 38% worst). Folding it in here would conflate two effects in one number. It is a PRECONDITION on acting on this result, not a term inside it.", "grid": [ { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.10251155801473733, "halflife_bars": 720, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.004873668252574118, "median_max_drawdown": 0.09495320055081719, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 0.5097645401795198, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.1876321103559252, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.3467484690997482, "realized_book_vol": 0.10412475476117108, "seed_rows": 240, "window_bars": 720 }, { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.10726268513979541, "halflife_bars": 252, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.005246189846945475, "median_max_drawdown": 0.09805592597689172, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 0.48893006110057646, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.18547684267059092, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.3819064333885525, "realized_book_vol": 0.10361856858548037, "seed_rows": 240, "window_bars": 720 }, { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.09449843329391416, "halflife_bars": 63, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.004205644237410449, "median_max_drawdown": 0.08678554494525914, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 0.8139411418065704, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.17477634837432465, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.6359588919998083, "realized_book_vol": 0.10092585240893277, "seed_rows": 240, "window_bars": 720 }, { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.08380441908849982, "halflife_bars": 21, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.003365052560020317, "median_max_drawdown": 0.07590414604693296, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 1.5430387142078004, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.15387138275195533, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.6975692009825112, "realized_book_vol": 0.0988791496963738, "seed_rows": 240, "window_bars": 720 }, { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.07961651142754178, "halflife_bars": 7, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.002651750174587392, "median_max_drawdown": 0.07296828964913477, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 3.5728097679213637, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.1353666307587787, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.869413899839946, "realized_book_vol": 0.09986931273260134, "seed_rows": 240, "window_bars": 720 }, { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.10002580066100973, "halflife_bars": 360, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.004965037062146933, "median_max_drawdown": 0.08993423675888412, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 0.6781953164003346, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.1873039269633, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.5805220498273702, "realized_book_vol": 0.10470193705253028, "seed_rows": 120, "window_bars": 360 }, { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.08836764002123382, "halflife_bars": 63, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.003684007812551513, "median_max_drawdown": 0.07849974226776613, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 0.8013506346289985, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.15500654319061646, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.6386426682084407, "realized_book_vol": 0.0999479553713626, "seed_rows": 120, "window_bars": 360 }, { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.09264957463748373, "halflife_bars": 21, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.0033497726508776387, "median_max_drawdown": 0.09086853861878114, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 1.6260706141534493, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.15851599819246504, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.7488662087667057, "realized_book_vol": 0.09935458220267125, "seed_rows": 120, "window_bars": 360 }, { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.11036094622875237, "halflife_bars": 240, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.00527749857813107, "median_max_drawdown": 0.09803232041775495, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 0.8052399599381493, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.21339175198527244, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.4274014935316939, "realized_book_vol": 0.10926499195588939, "seed_rows": 80, "window_bars": 240 }, { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.08834734999636866, "halflife_bars": 21, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.003511521984416597, "median_max_drawdown": 0.08091952347671505, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 1.5658271981069098, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.1508661647735639, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.6748436943525815, "realized_book_vol": 0.1001410419424532, "seed_rows": 80, "window_bars": 240 }, { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.08516661016110173, "halflife_bars": 21, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.0031722480208055247, "median_max_drawdown": 0.07933900941022692, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 1.5627323407263483, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.14495240787696834, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.692588089591904, "realized_book_vol": 0.09964641315037287, "seed_rows": 56, "window_bars": 168 } ], "improvement_vs_production": 0.022895046587195544, "p95_still_misses_the_objective": "No configuration holds the 95th percentile at or under 11%. The best is 13.5% at 720/7. The drawdown objective is an EXPECTED maximum drawdown, and both figures are always published together.", "parameters": { "mean_run_days": 40.0, "min_periods_fraction": 0.3333333333333333, "paths": 96, "rho_calm": -0.02, "rho_stress": 0.5, "s_bar": 0.469, "seed": 20260822, "sleeves": 14, "stress_share": 0.12, "vol_target": 0.1, "years": 2 }, "path_count_caveat": "96 paths, so each expected maximum drawdown carries a standard error of roughly the value reported in max_drawdown_stderr. Configurations share their shocks, so the RANKING is far better determined than any single level, and the ranking is what this analysis is for.", "precondition_before_acting": "At a 21-bar halflife the Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage error measured in artifacts/analysis/ledoit_wolf_effective_sample is 4.46% of ex-ante vol, and at 7 it would be worse \u2014 the effective sample shrinks further. That error must be fixed BEFORE the halflife is shortened, not after. And any change to it is a live-book change: owner-gated, and it VOIDS the forward pre-registration draft.", "production_setting": { "expected_max_drawdown": 0.10251155801473733, "halflife_bars": 720, "max_drawdown_stderr": 0.004873668252574118, "median_max_drawdown": 0.09495320055081719, "overlay_gross_turnover_per_year": 0.5097645401795198, "p95_max_drawdown": 0.1876321103559252, "realized_book_sharpe": 1.3467484690997482, "realized_book_vol": 0.10412475476117108, "seed_rows": 240, "window_bars": 720 }, "schema": "canli.alphac-drawdown-live-estimator.v1", "the_finding": "THE HALFLIFE IS THE LEVER AND THE WINDOW IS NOT. Shortening the halflife inside the production 720-bar window improves expected maximum drawdown monotonically: 10.25% at 720, 9.45% at 63, 8.38% at 21, 7.96% at 7. Shortening the WINDOW buys nothing on top of it \u2014 168/21 gives 8.52% against 720/21's 8.38%, inside the standard error. This corrects a claim published earlier the same day that named the window as the only lever; that came from sampling only halflives at or above 21 days, where the window truncates everything into one narrow band.", "twin_verification": [ { "halflife": 720, "max_abs_error": 1.0842021724855044e-19, "seed": 240, "window": 720 }, { "halflife": 252, "max_abs_error": 8.131516293641283e-20, "seed": 240, "window": 720 }, { "halflife": 63, "max_abs_error": 6.776263578034403e-20, "seed": 240, "window": 720 }, { "halflife": 21, "max_abs_error": 1.3552527156068805e-20, "seed": 240, "window": 720 }, { "halflife": 7, "max_abs_error": 2.710505431213761e-20, "seed": 240, "window": 720 }, { "halflife": 360, "max_abs_error": 1.3552527156068805e-19, "seed": 120, "window": 360 }, { "halflife": 63, "max_abs_error": 5.421010862427522e-20, "seed": 120, "window": 360 }, { "halflife": 21, "max_abs_error": 1.3552527156068805e-20, "seed": 120, "window": 360 }, { "halflife": 240, "max_abs_error": 2.710505431213761e-20, "seed": 80, "window": 240 }, { "halflife": 21, "max_abs_error": 1.3552527156068805e-20, "seed": 80, "window": 240 }, { "halflife": 21, "max_abs_error": 1.3552527156068805e-20, "seed": 56, "window": 168 } ], "why_the_original_sweep_does_not_transfer": "analyze_frontier_14.py updates covariance with an UNTRUNCATED recursion \u2014 infinite memory, no window, no seed block. Production's ewma_cov is windowed at cov_window_bars and seeded with an equally weighted block of the oldest cov_min_periods rows, so the window BOUNDS the memory and a halflife longer than the window cannot be delivered. A halflife sweep on an untruncated estimator answers a question about a system this book does not run." }, "ledoit_wolf_effective_sample": { "any_non_conservative": true, "baskets": [ { "basket": "managed_futures_17_etf", "instruments": 17, "ladder": [ { "conservative": false, "delta_star_as_coded": 0.01830762159876317, "delta_star_reestimated_on_effective_window": 0.14851580315893076, "delta_star_rescaled_to_effective_T": 0.21752098841070172, "effective_sample_rows": 60.59869278555086, "halflife_bars": 21, "inverse_vol_weights_are_invariant": true, "max_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.38077340016702277, "mean_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.0446014452492797, "median_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.03119630070740637, "rescale_clipped_at_one": false, "rows_passed_in_production": 720, "understatement_factor_pure_T": 11.881444415772556 }, { "conservative": false, "delta_star_as_coded": 0.016583376957771484, "delta_star_reestimated_on_effective_window": 0.1469334079829104, "delta_star_rescaled_to_effective_T": 0.06568304504052955, "effective_sample_rows": 181.78254985328257, "halflife_bars": 63, "inverse_vol_weights_are_invariant": true, "max_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.07916299305399614, "mean_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.009210205275552996, "median_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.006112136234757426, "rescale_clipped_at_one": false, "rows_passed_in_production": 720, "understatement_factor_pure_T": 3.9607762163151237 }, { "conservative": false, "delta_star_as_coded": 0.023909302574604042, "delta_star_reestimated_on_effective_window": 0.07898914668453927, "delta_star_rescaled_to_effective_T": 0.04747435580119078, "effective_sample_rows": 362.61045701821024, "halflife_bars": 126, "inverse_vol_weights_are_invariant": true, "max_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.025426120853380904, "mean_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.003720108840731909, "median_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.002637821476289738, "rescale_clipped_at_one": false, "rows_passed_in_production": 720, "understatement_factor_pure_T": 1.985601865761532 }, { "conservative": false, "delta_star_as_coded": 0.04101455623742832, "delta_star_reestimated_on_effective_window": 0.05086066325704736, "delta_star_rescaled_to_effective_T": 0.04649206801280103, "effective_sample_rows": 635.1724445300547, "halflife_bars": 252, "inverse_vol_weights_are_invariant": true, "max_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.005112097374998409, "mean_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.00067440695911878, "median_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.00048537771290490107, "rescale_clipped_at_one": false, "rows_passed_in_production": 720, "understatement_factor_pure_T": 1.1335504337451332 }, { "conservative": false, "delta_star_as_coded": 0.06737510164995188, "delta_star_reestimated_on_effective_window": 0.08761750558376746, "delta_star_rescaled_to_effective_T": 0.07842888686062562, "effective_sample_rows": 618.523035704582, "halflife_bars": 504, "inverse_vol_weights_are_invariant": true, "max_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.006610018411988283, "mean_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.0012448709916552158, "median_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.0009717397437041391, "rescale_clipped_at_one": false, "rows_passed_in_production": 720, "understatement_factor_pure_T": 1.1640633548592447 }, { "conservative": false, "delta_star_as_coded": 0.08160884576903019, "delta_star_reestimated_on_effective_window": 0.1479878967604686, "delta_star_rescaled_to_effective_T": 0.1142186423005888, "effective_sample_rows": 514.4376414409439, "halflife_bars": 720, "inverse_vol_weights_are_invariant": true, "max_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.0383437117537494, "mean_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.003607870569932673, "median_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.0026170917598008856, "rescale_clipped_at_one": false, "rows_passed_in_production": 720, "understatement_factor_pure_T": 1.3995865426629246 } ], "rows": 720 } ], "claim_boundary": "Measures an approximation's error on real price data. Changes nothing, registers no hypothesis identity, and opens no return data on any untested identity. 0 trials.", "non_conservative_halflives": [ 21, 63, 126, 252, 504, 720 ], "production_setting": { "conservative": false, "delta_star_as_coded": 0.08160884576903019, "delta_star_reestimated_on_effective_window": 0.1479878967604686, "delta_star_rescaled_to_effective_T": 0.1142186423005888, "effective_sample_rows": 514.4376414409439, "halflife_bars": 720, "inverse_vol_weights_are_invariant": true, "max_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.0383437117537494, "mean_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.003607870569932673, "median_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.0026170917598008856, "rescale_clipped_at_one": false, "rows_passed_in_production": 720, "understatement_factor_pure_T": 1.3995865426629246 }, "schema": "canli.alphac-ledoit-wolf-effective-sample.v1", "the_approximation": "ledoit_wolf_cc computes delta* = clip((pi - rho)/(gamma*T), 0, 1) with T = the rows PASSED. Production passes the full unweighted 720-row window while the matrix being shrunk is the EWMA covariance. Documented in the function's own docstring as the closest admissible sample.", "the_channel_the_error_travels": "NOT position sizing. The constant-correlation target shares S's diagonal, so this shrinkage cannot change a variance and inverse-vol weights \u2014 what the production `rank` allocator sizes on \u2014 are mathematically invariant to it. The error reaches the book only through quantities that use the off-diagonal: the overlay's ex-ante vol sqrt(w' Sigma w), which scales the whole book, and the MVO allocator, which is not the production default.", "verdict": "NOT CONSERVATIVE AT ANY HALFLIFE, BUT IMMATERIAL AT THE PRODUCTION SETTING (0.36% mean ex-ante vol error). It becomes MATERIAL at a short halflife: 4.46% mean and 38.1% worst case at 21 bars. Fix it BEFORE shortening the covariance halflife, not after.", "what_this_does_not_do": "It does not change the live path. Production runs the legacy 720-bar covariance halflife, and any change to it is gated by the live-change ceremony and is the owner's. This measures what a future halflife decision would be walking into.", "why_it_is_never_conservative": "The documented reasoning \u2014 that the unweighted window is the closest admissible sample \u2014 assumed the EWMA's effective sample could EXCEED the window. It cannot: ewma_cov is windowed at cov_window_bars, so its effective sample is bounded by the window at every halflife. Measured here it peaks at 635 rows against a T of 720 and falls to 514 at the production setting, so delta* is understated everywhere rather than only at short halflives.", "why_it_was_conservative": "A larger true T means a smaller true delta*, so using 720 when the estimator's effective sample EXCEEDS 720 over-shrinks slightly \u2014 and over-shrinking is the safe direction for a covariance estimate. The concern is the opposite case.", "worst_case_in_ladder": { "conservative": false, "delta_star_as_coded": 0.01830762159876317, "delta_star_reestimated_on_effective_window": 0.14851580315893076, "delta_star_rescaled_to_effective_T": 0.21752098841070172, "effective_sample_rows": 60.59869278555086, "halflife_bars": 21, "inverse_vol_weights_are_invariant": true, "max_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.38077340016702277, "mean_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.0446014452492797, "median_ex_ante_vol_shift": 0.03119630070740637, "rescale_clipped_at_one": false, "rows_passed_in_production": 720, "understatement_factor_pure_T": 11.881444415772556 } }, "record_continuity": { "as_of": "2026-08-25", "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "Reads the per-sleeve trading databases read-only. Opens no market data, registers no hypothesis identity and changes nothing. Corrects session-date classification only; it changes no mark, equity, return, order, fill or configuration. 0 trials.", "content_hash": "sha256:37ead08bdc7567776ca7e9e9f438072d95c2972adb8e3d09bab0cff9aa5c804c", "correction": { "documentation": "docs/design/CORRECTION_ALPACA_SESSION_DATE_CONTINUITY.md", "raw_marks_rewritten": false, "status": "CORRECTED", "withdrawn_finding": "The v1 UTC-calendar audit called 2026-08-10 a systemic gap. The three Alpaca rows stamped 2026-08-11T00:00:00Z are the finalized 2026-08-10 XNYS closes." }, "days_since_go_live": 19, "go_live_date": "2026-08-07", "how_a_gap_is_classified": "Crypto marks and expectations use UTC calendar dates. Alpaca 1D midnight-UTC marks map to the preceding XNYS session; equity expectations come from XNYS sessions, so weekends and exchange holidays are legitimate absences.", "max_gap_rate_threshold": 0.2, "passes": true, "schema": "canli.alphac-record-continuity.v1", "sleeves": { "alphaforge": { "calendar_days_marked": 16, "database": "var/trading_crypto_perp.sqlite", "database_exists": true, "days_expected": 19, "days_marked": 16, "days_since_go_live": 19, "expected_calendar": "UTC_24_7", "gap_rate": 0.15789473684210525, "legitimate_absence_days": [], "legitimate_absences": 0, "longest_consecutive_gap": 2, "mark_date_convention": "UTC_CALENDAR_DATE", "real_gap_days": [ "2026-08-07", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-10" ], "real_gaps": 3, "trades_24_7": true }, "alphamax": { "calendar_days_marked": 13, "database": "var/trading_equity.sqlite", "database_exists": true, "days_expected": 13, "days_marked": 13, "days_since_go_live": 19, "expected_calendar": "XNYS", "gap_rate": 0.0, "legitimate_absence_days": [ "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-15", "2026-08-16", "2026-08-22", "2026-08-23" ], "legitimate_absences": 6, "longest_consecutive_gap": 0, "mark_date_convention": "ALPACA_1D_CLOSE_D_STAMPED_D_PLUS_1_00_UTC", "real_gap_days": [], "real_gaps": 0, "trades_24_7": false }, "alphavintage": { "calendar_days_marked": 13, "database": "var/trading_alphavintage.sqlite", "database_exists": true, "days_expected": 13, "days_marked": 13, "days_since_go_live": 19, "expected_calendar": "XNYS", "gap_rate": 0.0, "legitimate_absence_days": [ "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-15", "2026-08-16", "2026-08-22", "2026-08-23" ], "legitimate_absences": 6, "longest_consecutive_gap": 0, "mark_date_convention": "ALPACA_1D_CLOSE_D_STAMPED_D_PLUS_1_00_UTC", "real_gap_days": [], "real_gaps": 0, "trades_24_7": false }, "managed_futures": { "calendar_days_marked": 13, "database": "var/trading_managed_futures.sqlite", "database_exists": true, "days_expected": 13, "days_marked": 13, "days_since_go_live": 19, "expected_calendar": "XNYS", "gap_rate": 0.0, "legitimate_absence_days": [ "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-15", "2026-08-16", "2026-08-22", "2026-08-23" ], "legitimate_absences": 6, "longest_consecutive_gap": 0, "mark_date_convention": "ALPACA_1D_CLOSE_D_STAMPED_D_PLUS_1_00_UTC", "real_gap_days": [], "real_gaps": 0, "trades_24_7": false } }, "systemic_gap_days": [], "systemic_note": "Dates that are expected and missing on EVERY sleeve's own calendar are systemic \u2014 the tick did not run or did not mark \u2014 rather than a fault in any one sleeve.", "threshold_basis": "Declared, not fitted. A threshold derived from today's gap rate would pass whatever the gap rate happens to be, which is not a threshold.", "what_this_does_not_measure": "Whether a mark is CORRECT \u2014 only whether one exists. A sleeve marking the same equity every day would show a perfect continuity record and a frozen curve. That is the publish gate's job (check_published_state), not this one's.", "worst_gap_rate": 0.15789473684210525 }, "alpaca_broker_reconciliation": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "cent_tolerance": 0.01, "claim_boundary": "Self-published read-only reconciliation against three dedicated Alpaca paper accounts. It is broker-derived but not an independent third-party attestation, does not imply real capital, and does not establish future performance.", "content_hash": "sha256:902dfff0477c9f05c64c0ce1241c05531bab99a5dbe54f591dbe35fd4ea36f6f", "generated_at": "2026-08-25T14:25:21.895424+00:00", "method": "GET_ONLY_ACCOUNT_POSITIONS_PORTFOLIO_HISTORY_OPEN_ORDERS", "schema": "canli.alphac-alpaca-broker-reconciliation.v1", "sleeves": { "alphamax": { "account_identity": { "last4": "O942", "scheme": "sha256(alpaca_account_number)", "sha256": "f1f2024fb7a93c1c802915999b8ee6e9b3f7f90db59dc4912f2a61e6a2c5e1fe" }, "account_status": "ACTIVE", "broker": "ALPACA", "capital_kind": "PAPER_ONLY", "checks": { "account_active": true, "all_broker_marks_match_to_cent_after_refresh": true, "all_broker_marks_present_after_refresh": true, "current_account_equity_persisted": true, "fill_reconciliation_healthy": true, "nontrivial_broker_history": true, "paper_endpoint": true, "pre_refresh_overlap_matched_to_cent": true }, "comparison_after_refresh": { "all_overlapping_marks_match_to_cent": true, "broker_marks": 14, "broker_marks_missing_locally": 0, "local_marks": 15, "max_absolute_equity_difference": 0.0, "missing_broker_mark_timestamps": [], "overlapping_marks": 14 }, "comparison_before_refresh": { "all_overlapping_marks_match_to_cent": true, "broker_marks": 14, "broker_marks_missing_locally": 0, "local_marks": 15, "max_absolute_equity_difference": 0.0, "missing_broker_mark_timestamps": [], "overlapping_marks": 14 }, "current_equity": 986855.98, "current_equity_as_of": "2026-08-25T14:25:21.895000+00:00", "fill_outcome_reconciliation": { "consecutive_fill_reconcile_failures": 0, "last_error": null, "last_failure_at": "2026-08-25T06:09:35.875000+00:00", "last_success_at": "2026-08-25T10:37:05.236000+00:00" }, "holdings": { "as_of": "2026-08-25", "broker_reconciled": true, "flat": false, "gross_pct": 29.2, "long": [ { "ticker": "MU", "weight_pct": 0.91 }, { "ticker": "STX", "weight_pct": 0.91 }, { "ticker": "WDC", "weight_pct": 0.47 }, { "ticker": "CIEN", "weight_pct": 0.41 }, { "ticker": "TER", "weight_pct": 0.4 }, { "ticker": "REPL", "weight_pct": 0.38 }, { "ticker": "LRCX", "weight_pct": 0.32 }, { "ticker": "GLW", "weight_pct": 0.32 }, { "ticker": "COHR", "weight_pct": 0.32 }, { "ticker": "ONTO", "weight_pct": 0.32 }, { "ticker": "MKSI", "weight_pct": 0.29 }, { "ticker": "TTMI", "weight_pct": 0.28 }, { "ticker": "NBIS", "weight_pct": 0.27 }, { "ticker": "APGE", "weight_pct": 0.26 }, { "ticker": "SIMO", "weight_pct": 0.26 } ], "long_count": 84, "net_pct": 3.6, "short": [ { "ticker": "IT", "weight_pct": 0.34 }, { "ticker": "INTU", "weight_pct": 0.33 }, { "ticker": "CHTR", "weight_pct": 0.29 }, { "ticker": "CSGP", "weight_pct": 0.26 }, { "ticker": "DUOL", "weight_pct": 0.25 }, { "ticker": "SMPL", "weight_pct": 0.23 }, { "ticker": "HUBS", "weight_pct": 0.22 }, { "ticker": "PRGO", "weight_pct": 0.21 }, { "ticker": "SHAK", "weight_pct": 0.21 }, { "ticker": "FISV", "weight_pct": 0.21 }, { "ticker": "CBZ", "weight_pct": 0.21 }, { "ticker": "HDB", "weight_pct": 0.2 }, { "ticker": "FLUT", "weight_pct": 0.2 }, { "ticker": "WHR", "weight_pct": 0.2 }, { "ticker": "BKNG", "weight_pct": 0.19 } ], "short_count": 92, "source": "ALPACA_CURRENT_POSITIONS" }, "open_order_count": 0, "open_position_count": 176, "passes": true, "portfolio_history_first_mark": "2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00", "portfolio_history_last_mark": "2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00", "profile": "equity", "sleeve": "alphamax" }, "alphavintage": { "account_identity": { "last4": "9JRY", "scheme": "sha256(alpaca_account_number)", "sha256": "91caf86a9ceca0bff4ab53fb95b7aa0bc382f4c43f1c5d5ba122f6aa9dbe68d4" }, "account_status": "ACTIVE", "broker": "ALPACA", "capital_kind": "PAPER_ONLY", "checks": { "account_active": true, "all_broker_marks_match_to_cent_after_refresh": true, "all_broker_marks_present_after_refresh": true, "current_account_equity_persisted": true, "fill_reconciliation_healthy": true, "nontrivial_broker_history": true, "paper_endpoint": true, "pre_refresh_overlap_matched_to_cent": true }, "comparison_after_refresh": { "all_overlapping_marks_match_to_cent": true, "broker_marks": 13, "broker_marks_missing_locally": 0, "local_marks": 14, "max_absolute_equity_difference": 0.0, "missing_broker_mark_timestamps": [], "overlapping_marks": 13 }, "comparison_before_refresh": { "all_overlapping_marks_match_to_cent": true, "broker_marks": 13, "broker_marks_missing_locally": 0, "local_marks": 14, "max_absolute_equity_difference": 0.0, "missing_broker_mark_timestamps": [], "overlapping_marks": 13 }, "current_equity": 1001553.31, "current_equity_as_of": "2026-08-25T14:25:21.895000+00:00", "fill_outcome_reconciliation": { "consecutive_fill_reconcile_failures": 0, "last_error": null, "last_failure_at": null, "last_success_at": "2026-08-24T06:00:20.588000+00:00" }, "holdings": { "as_of": "2026-08-25", "broker_reconciled": true, "flat": false, "gross_pct": 100.0, "long": [ { "ticker": "IWM", "weight_pct": 49.92 } ], "long_count": 1, "net_pct": -0.12, "short": [ { "ticker": "SPY", "weight_pct": 50.04 } ], "short_count": 1, "source": "ALPACA_CURRENT_POSITIONS" }, "open_order_count": 0, "open_position_count": 2, "passes": true, "portfolio_history_first_mark": "2026-08-07T00:00:00+00:00", "portfolio_history_last_mark": "2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00", "profile": "alphavintage", "sleeve": "alphavintage" }, "managed_futures": { "account_identity": { "last4": "QK69", "scheme": "sha256(alpaca_account_number)", "sha256": "7ee0a1d52811adad7ff83cc81403442d984f8a9ce4a7d01c6c0e43db11851fba" }, "account_status": "ACTIVE", "broker": "ALPACA", "capital_kind": "PAPER_ONLY", "checks": { "account_active": true, "all_broker_marks_match_to_cent_after_refresh": true, "all_broker_marks_present_after_refresh": true, "current_account_equity_persisted": true, "fill_reconciliation_healthy": true, "nontrivial_broker_history": true, "paper_endpoint": true, "pre_refresh_overlap_matched_to_cent": true }, "comparison_after_refresh": { "all_overlapping_marks_match_to_cent": true, "broker_marks": 14, "broker_marks_missing_locally": 0, "local_marks": 15, "max_absolute_equity_difference": 0.0, "missing_broker_mark_timestamps": [], "overlapping_marks": 14 }, "comparison_before_refresh": { "all_overlapping_marks_match_to_cent": true, "broker_marks": 14, "broker_marks_missing_locally": 0, "local_marks": 15, "max_absolute_equity_difference": 0.0, "missing_broker_mark_timestamps": [], "overlapping_marks": 14 }, "current_equity": 998580.91, "current_equity_as_of": "2026-08-25T14:25:21.895000+00:00", "fill_outcome_reconciliation": { "consecutive_fill_reconcile_failures": 0, "last_error": null, "last_failure_at": null, "last_success_at": "2026-08-25T05:49:49.438000+00:00" }, "holdings": { "as_of": "2026-08-25", "broker_reconciled": true, "flat": false, "gross_pct": 71.2, "long": [ { "ticker": "SHY", "weight_pct": 20.02 }, { "ticker": "UUP", "weight_pct": 8.07 }, { "ticker": "DBA", "weight_pct": 4.51 }, { "ticker": "EFA", "weight_pct": 3.48 }, { "ticker": "DBC", "weight_pct": 3.1 }, { "ticker": "SPY", "weight_pct": 3.06 }, { "ticker": "IWM", "weight_pct": 2.64 }, { "ticker": "EEM", "weight_pct": 2.56 }, { "ticker": "QQQ", "weight_pct": 2.28 }, { "ticker": "USO", "weight_pct": 1.46 } ], "long_count": 10, "net_pct": 31.2, "short": [ { "ticker": "IEF", "weight_pct": 10.32 }, { "ticker": "TLT", "weight_pct": 4.86 }, { "ticker": "GLD", "weight_pct": 2.68 }, { "ticker": "SLV", "weight_pct": 1.22 }, { "ticker": "UNG", "weight_pct": 0.91 } ], "short_count": 5, "source": "ALPACA_CURRENT_POSITIONS" }, "open_order_count": 2, "open_position_count": 15, "passes": true, "portfolio_history_first_mark": "2026-08-06T00:00:00+00:00", "portfolio_history_last_mark": "2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00", "profile": "managed_futures", "sleeve": "managed_futures" } }, "summary": { "expected_alpaca_sleeves": 3, "open_orders": 2, "open_positions": 193, "passes": true, "reconciled_alpaca_sleeves": 3, "status": "PASS", "unique_dedicated_accounts": true } }, "live_covariance_memory": { "claim_boundary": "A property of the ESTIMATOR, derived from its exact weighting and verified against the production function by unit impulse. Reads no market data, runs no backtest, registers no hypothesis identity, and recommends no halflife. 0 trials.", "correction_2026_08_21": "An earlier revision of this analysis sampled only 21 days and up, found every result in a 20-25 day band, and concluded the parameter was 'nearly inert' on crypto with cov_window_bars as the only lever. That was wrong and is withdrawn. The band is the window, not the parameter: below 30 days the halflife is honoured almost exactly (3d -> 3.0d, 7d -> 7.0d, 14d -> 14.0d). Reading the shape of a sampled range as a property of the mechanism is the error, and the ladder now spans both sides of the window so it cannot recur.", "ledoit_wolf_intensity_mismatch": { "description": "ledoit_wolf_cc computes its shrinkage intensity delta* with T = the number of rows passed, and production passes the full unweighted 720-row window while the matrix being shrunk is the EWMA. That approximation is documented and was conservative while the EWMA's effective sample EXCEEDED 720. It stops being conservative at a short halflife.", "effective_sample_by_request": { "crypto_H1": { "126d": 297.06124008702557, "14d": 682.9849719969112, "21d": 618.523035704582, "252d": 267.48514752418106, "30d": 514.4376414409439, "3d": 207.75239519446882, "63d": 361.6845247874969, "720d": 249.37508855247322, "7d": 475.5100277349821 }, "equity_D1": { "126d": 362.61045701821024, "14d": 40.40371255993607, "21d": 60.59869278555086, "252d": 635.1724445300547, "30d": 86.5655532496314, "3d": 8.694644203726149, "63d": 181.78254985328257, "720d": 514.4376414409439, "7d": 20.21423138038137 } }, "site": "src/alphaforge/portfolio/strategy.py, the ledoit_wolf_cc call", "status": "OPEN \u2014 flagged, not fixed; no study has measured it" }, "production": { "cov_min_periods": 240, "cov_window_bars": 720, "estimator": "alphaforge.portfolio.covariance.ewma_cov", "legacy_cov_halflife_bars": 720 }, "schema": "canli.alphac-live-covariance-memory.v1", "sleeves": { "crypto_H1": { "bars_per_day": 24.0, "by_requested_days": [ { "effective_sample_rows": 207.75239519446882, "halflife_bars": 72.0, "halflife_days": 3.0, "lambda": 0.9904191474668262, "mean_weight_age_days": 4.313898635128598, "median_weight_age_days": 2.9583333333333335, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.009843133202303636, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.01388888888888884, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 2.9583333333333335, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 30.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 475.5100277349821, "halflife_bars": 168.0, "halflife_days": 7.0, "lambda": 0.9958826236582974, "mean_weight_age_days": 9.374343839932603, "median_weight_age_days": 6.958333333333333, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.13801118920922392, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.005952380952380931, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 6.958333333333333, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 30.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 682.9849719969112, "halflife_bars": 336.0, "halflife_days": 14.0, "lambda": 0.9979391883568344, "mean_weight_age_days": 14.530966531430428, "median_weight_age_days": 13.958333333333334, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.37149857228423083, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.0029761904761904656, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 13.958333333333334, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 30.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 618.523035704582, "halflife_bars": 504.0, "halflife_days": 21.0, "lambda": 0.998625653255761, "mean_weight_age_days": 17.203018066214934, "median_weight_age_days": 20.291666666666668, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.5167788915035059, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.03373015873015872, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 20.291666666666668, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 30.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 514.4376414409439, "halflife_bars": 720.0, "halflife_days": 30.0, "lambda": 0.9990377588337834, "mean_weight_age_days": 19.144593996088407, "median_weight_age_days": 22.041666666666668, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.6299605249474489, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.2652777777777777, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 22.041666666666668, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 30.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 361.6845247874969, "halflife_bars": 1512.0, "halflife_days": 63.0, "lambda": 0.999541674388313, "mean_weight_age_days": 21.94400599798556, "median_weight_age_days": 23.75, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.8024813019603448, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.623015873015873, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 23.75, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 30.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 297.06124008702557, "halflife_bars": 3024.0, "halflife_days": 126.0, "lambda": 0.9997708109303417, "mean_weight_age_days": 23.39726374027089, "median_weight_age_days": 24.416666666666668, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.895813207069628, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.8062169312169312, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 24.416666666666668, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 30.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 267.48514752418106, "halflife_bars": 6048.0, "halflife_days": 252.0, "lambda": 0.9998853988984646, "mean_weight_age_days": 24.17137073378422, "median_weight_age_days": 24.708333333333332, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.9464740921280574, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.9019510582010581, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 24.708333333333332, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 30.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 249.37508855247322, "halflife_bars": 17280.0, "halflife_days": 720.0, "lambda": 0.9999598881204428, "mean_weight_age_days": 24.692506031842868, "median_weight_age_days": 24.875, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.980930087668921, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.9654513888888889, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 24.875, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 30.0 } ], "legacy_setting": { "effective_sample_rows": 514.4376414409439, "halflife_bars": 720, "halflife_days": 30.0, "lambda": 0.9990377588337834, "mean_weight_age_days": 19.144593996088407, "means_days": 30.0, "median_weight_age_days": 22.041666666666668, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.6299605249474489, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.2652777777777777, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 22.041666666666668, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 30.0 } }, "equity_D1": { "bars_per_day": 1.0, "by_requested_days": [ { "effective_sample_rows": 8.694644203726149, "halflife_bars": 3.0, "halflife_days": 3.0, "lambda": 0.7937005259840998, "mean_weight_age_days": 3.847322101863074, "median_weight_age_days": 3.0, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 6.842277657836246e-49, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.0, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 3.0, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 720.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 20.21423138038137, "halflife_bars": 7.0, "halflife_days": 7.0, "lambda": 0.9057236642639067, "mean_weight_age_days": 9.607115690190687, "median_weight_age_days": 7.0, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 2.280043613751082e-21, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.0, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 7.0, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 720.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 40.40371255993607, "halflife_bars": 14.0, "halflife_days": 14.0, "lambda": 0.9516951530106196, "mean_weight_age_days": 19.701856284733374, "median_weight_age_days": 13.0, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 4.774980223782037e-11, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.0714285714285714, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 13.0, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 720.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 60.59869278555086, "halflife_bars": 21.0, "halflife_days": 21.0, "lambda": 0.9675317785238916, "mean_weight_age_days": 29.799358198971127, "median_weight_age_days": 20.0, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 1.3161772652552104e-07, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.04761904761904767, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 20.0, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 720.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 86.5655532496314, "halflife_bars": 30.0, "halflife_days": 30.0, "lambda": 0.9771599684342459, "mean_weight_age_days": 42.78394723030206, "median_weight_age_days": 29.0, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 1.525878906249964e-05, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.033333333333333326, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 29.0, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 720.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 181.78254985328257, "halflife_bars": 63.0, "halflife_days": 63.0, "lambda": 0.9890579681360733, "mean_weight_age_days": 90.53877537230811, "median_weight_age_days": 62.0, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.005086723465207836, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.015873015873015928, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 62.0, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 720.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 362.61045701821024, "halflife_bars": 126.0, "halflife_days": 126.0, "lambda": 0.9945139356168285, "mean_weight_age_days": 176.87380316534677, "median_weight_age_days": 126.0, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.07132126937462727, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.0, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 126.0, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 720.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 635.1724445300547, "halflife_bars": 252.0, "halflife_days": 252.0, "lambda": 0.9972531953404955, "mean_weight_age_days": 298.01430867146826, "median_weight_age_days": 251.0, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.2670604227035989, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.003968253968253954, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 251.0, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 720.0 }, { "effective_sample_rows": 514.4376414409439, "halflife_bars": 720.0, "halflife_days": 720.0, "lambda": 0.9990377588337834, "mean_weight_age_days": 459.47025590612174, "median_weight_age_days": 529.0, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.6299605249474489, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.2652777777777777, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 529.0, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 720.0 } ], "legacy_setting": { "effective_sample_rows": 514.4376414409439, "halflife_bars": 720, "halflife_days": 720.0, "lambda": 0.9990377588337834, "mean_weight_age_days": 459.47025590612174, "means_days": 720.0, "median_weight_age_days": 529.0, "seed_bars": 240, "seed_block_weight": 0.6299605249474489, "truncation_absorbed_fraction": 0.2652777777777777, "untruncated_equivalent_halflife_days": 529.0, "window_bars": 720, "window_days": 720.0 } } }, "the_headline": "The WINDOW bounds the memory, so the halflife is faithful below it and truncated above it. On the crypto H1 sleeve the 720-bar window is 30 days: a 7-day request delivers 7.0 days and a 14-day request 14.0, while a 30-day request delivers 22.0 and a 720-day request 24.9. The legacy setting is 30 days requested against 22 days of memory. On the equity D1 sleeve the same 720-bar window is 720 SESSIONS, so the parameter is faithful across the whole practical range and only the legacy 720-day setting is truncated, to 529 days.", "what_this_does_not_say": "It does not say which halflife is right. It says what the estimator DOES with each one, which is the mapping a halflife decision needs and did not have. Choosing a value still requires a drawdown study run through this estimator rather than through an untruncated simulation of it.", "which_lever_to_use_for_SHORT_memory": "Both routes reach short memory and they are not equivalent. Halflife 7 days at the production 720-bar window gives 7.0 days of memory on an effective sample of ~475 rows; shortening the window to 240 bars gives ~8 days of memory on ~107 rows. The HALFLIFE route preserves roughly four times the effective sample for comparable memory, which also keeps ledoit_wolf_cc's T=720 approximation far closer to valid. If the drawdown study's finding holds -- that shorter covariance memory reduces expected maximum drawdown -- the halflife is the instrument, and it has to be asked for BELOW the window rather than at 21 days where truncation has already started.", "why_the_parameter_is_not_the_memory": "ewma_cov sees only cov_window_bars rows and seeds S_0 with the EQUALLY WEIGHTED sample covariance of the oldest cov_min_periods rows, decayed by lambda^k. The seed block is therefore a flat slab of old data the recursion cannot forget inside the window, and the shorter the requested halflife the smaller that slab -- but it never vanishes. The sweep that set overlay policy simulated an untruncated recursion, so its halflife ladder and this estimator's memory are different quantities." }, "feasibility_gate_reachability": { "claim_boundary": "Asks only whether each near-miss gate is reachable by repairing extraction. Opens no market data, registers no hypothesis identity, proposes no threshold change and authorizes no candidate. 0 trials.", "companion": "artifacts/analysis/spinoff_prorata_gate/result.json", "families": { "customer_supplier_propagation": { "a_hypothesis_this_measurement_REFUTED": "Five window excerpts read by eye from the misses were generic business and risk-factor text, which suggested the denominator was inflated with documents that disclose no concentration at all. Measured across all 300, that is wrong: 93.3% do carry real concentration language, and correcting the denominator moves the rate from 0.3533 to 0.3714 -- about two points, against a 15-point shortfall. Five excerpts were an unrepresentative sample and the hypothesis they suggested is recorded here as refuted rather than dropped.", "documents_sampled": 300, "documents_with_genuine_concentration_language": 280, "gate": "strict_named_document_rate_at_least_50pct", "gate_threshold": 0.5, "genuine_concentration_share": 0.9333333333333333, "naming_rate_among_genuine_disclosures": 0.37142857142857144, "published_rate": 0.35333333333333333, "verdict": "GATE_UNREACHABLE_BY_DETECTOR_REPAIR", "why": "An issuer may disclose a material customer concentration WITHOUT naming the customer, and most do. Among documents that genuinely carry concentration language, only 104/280 name the customer (37.1%) against a gate of 50%. The shortfall is what the filings contain, not what the parser reads." }, "merger_arbitrage": { "blended_rate": 0.6702290076335878, "by_form": { "DEFM14A": { "anchors": 1523, "clears_0_80": false, "prior_item101_8k_rate": 0.613263296126067 }, "SC 14D9": { "anchors": 442, "clears_0_80": true, "prior_item101_8k_rate": 0.8665158371040724 } }, "gate": "prior_item101_8k_rate_gte_0_80", "gate_threshold": 0.8, "sc_to_t_note": "SC TO-T appears in counts_by_year_form (521 filings) and not in the anchor timeline. That is deliberate and correct: TARGET_FORMS is {DEFM14A, SC 14D9} because SC TO-T is the bidder's filing, not the target's. Checked rather than assumed.", "verdict": "GATE_BLENDS_TWO_POPULATIONS", "why": "The threshold is applied across deal structures with different filing obligations. A tender offer's SC 14D9 follows a contemporaneous merger agreement, so its prior Item 1.01 8-K is nearly always present; a definitive merger proxy can be filed long after the agreement and by issuers who announced it otherwise. Measured separately, SC 14D9 clears 0.80 outright and DEFM14A does not come close. The blended figure describes neither population.", "\u26a0\ufe0f_this_is_not_permission_to_narrow_the_universe": "Restricting to tender offers AFTER observing that they pass is selection, and the 0.8665 above is now in-sample for that decision and cannot serve as its evidence. A tender-offer-scoped identity is a legitimate REDESIGN, and it needs its own pre-registration with its threshold and universe fixed before anything is measured again. What this analysis establishes is that the CURRENT protocol mis-specified its population, not that a narrower one works." } }, "schema": "canli.alphac-feasibility-gate-reachability.v1", "summary": "Of the three families one gate from feasibility, none is blocked by extraction. spin_off_dislocation and customer_supplier_propagation ask for language the filings do not contain at the assumed rate; merger_arbitrage applies one threshold to two populations with different filing obligations. All three need identity redesign with fresh pre-registration, not a better parser. That is a slower answer than 'one gate away' implied, and it is the true one." }, "spinoff_prorata_gate": { "any_pro_rata_token_rate": 0.11224489795918367, "claim_boundary": "A measurement of document LANGUAGE on 98 frozen Form 10 filings, every one hash-verified against the feasibility artifact. Opens no market data, registers no hypothesis identity, and proposes no change to the pre-registered threshold. 0 trials.", "documents": 98, "documents_containing_any_pro_rata_token": 11, "false_negatives_reviewed": { "count": 1, "documents": [ "0000950123-17-006934.htm.gz" ], "note": "Each was read. They are preemptive-rights and similar boilerplate uses of 'pro rata share', not a spin-off distribution, so they are correct negatives for the intended meaning rather than misses." }, "gate": "pro_rata_distribution_language_rate_gte_0_30", "gate_threshold": 0.3, "hash_verified_against_artifact": 98, "schema": "canli.alphac-spinoff-prorata-gate.v1", "shipped_detector_rate": 0.16326530612244897, "tolerant_near_distribution_rate": 0.05102040816326531, "verdict": "GATE_UNREACHABLE_BY_DETECTOR_REPAIR", "what_this_implies": "The identity is not observable as pre-registered, which is the same classification already applied to treasury_auction_concession. The next step is an identity REDESIGN with its own pre-registration -- an initial Form 10 evidently does not carry distribution mechanics at the rate this protocol assumed, and any redesign must name the document that does before it names a threshold. Lowering the threshold on the existing protocol would be fitting the gate to the result.", "why": "Only 11 of 98 documents contain a pro-rata token in ANY written form (11.2%), and only 5 contain one near a distribution reference (5.1%). The gate asks for 30%. A perfect detector therefore reaches at most 11.2%: the shortfall is not extraction, it is that this language is not in these documents. Widening the pattern until the number cleared would have been tuning a measurement to agree with a target.", "\u26a0\ufe0f_the_shipped_detector_OVERSTATES_the_rate": { "affected_documents": [ "0001193125-20-060717.htm.gz", "0001213900-21-056422.htm.gz", "0001445866-17-000049.htm.gz", "0001709179-17-000007.HTM.gz", "0001721868-20-000002.htm.gz", "0001826466-20-000015.htm.gz" ], "cause": "PRO_RATA_PATTERN's second alternative matches 'distribut...' followed by 'holders of' or 'stockholders of' with NO pro-rata text required. So a field named pro_rata_distribution_language fires on documents that never say pro rata, and the published 0.1633 is higher than the true rate of 0.1122. The gate fails either way, and it fails harder than recorded.", "documents_with_any_pro_rata_token": 11, "hits_with_no_pro_rata_language_at_all": 6, "shipped_hits": 16 } }, "reachability_harness": { "claim_boundary": "Reads frozen feasibility artifacts read-only. Registers no hypothesis identity, opens no return data, and authorises no candidate. 0 trials.", "families": [ { "ceiling_basis": "documents containing a pro-rata token in ANY written form \u2014 hyphenated, non-breaking, or spaced. A detector cannot find language that is absent.", "ceiling_rate": 0.11224489795918367, "family": "spin_off_dislocation", "gate": "pro_rata_distribution_language_rate_gte_0_30", "headroom_over_threshold": -0.1877551020408163, "measured_rate": 0.16326530612244897, "strata": {}, "strata_clearing_alone": [], "threshold": 0.3, "verdict": "GATE_UNREACHABLE_BY_DETECTOR_REPAIR", "what_the_verdict_means": "A perfect detector reaches less than the gate requires. The shortfall is what the documents contain, not what the parser reads, and no extraction work will close it. The identity needs a redesign that names the document carrying the evidence before it names a threshold.", "\u26a0\ufe0f_if_blended": null }, { "ceiling_basis": "the naming rate among documents that genuinely carry concentration language. An issuer may disclose a material customer concentration without naming the customer, and most do.", "ceiling_rate": 0.37142857142857144, "family": "customer_supplier_propagation", "gate": "strict_named_document_rate_at_least_50pct", "headroom_over_threshold": -0.12857142857142856, "measured_rate": 0.35333333333333333, "strata": {}, "strata_clearing_alone": [], "threshold": 0.5, "verdict": "GATE_UNREACHABLE_BY_DETECTOR_REPAIR", "what_the_verdict_means": "A perfect detector reaches less than the gate requires. The shortfall is what the documents contain, not what the parser reads, and no extraction work will close it. The identity needs a redesign that names the document carrying the evidence before it names a threshold.", "\u26a0\ufe0f_if_blended": null }, { "ceiling_basis": "not applicable \u2014 the filing either exists or it does not, so there is no detector to improve. The question is which population the threshold was written for.", "ceiling_rate": 0.6702290076335878, "family": "merger_arbitrage", "gate": "prior_item101_8k_rate_gte_0_80", "headroom_over_threshold": -0.1297709923664122, "measured_rate": 0.6702290076335878, "strata": { "DEFM14A": { "n": 1523, "rate": 0.613263296126067 }, "SC 14D9": { "n": 442, "rate": 0.8665158371040724 } }, "strata_clearing_alone": [ "SC 14D9" ], "threshold": 0.8, "verdict": "GATE_BLENDS_TWO_POPULATIONS", "what_the_verdict_means": "One threshold is applied across populations that do not share the obligation it tests. The blended rate describes none of them.", "\u26a0\ufe0f_if_blended": "A subgroup clearing the gate is NOT permission to narrow the universe. Selecting it after observing that it passes is selection, and its rate is then in-sample for that decision and cannot be its evidence. It is a REDESIGN needing its own pre-registration with threshold and universe fixed before anything is measured again." } ], "how_to_add_a_family": "Write a probe returning a Reachability with its own ceiling_rate and ceiling_basis, register it, and add its expected verdict to PUBLISHED_VERDICTS if it has already been worked by hand. The harness refuses to run if any registered family stops reproducing its published answer.", "purpose": "Run BEFORE a protocol is written for any family. A near-miss gate invites exactly one move \u2014 widen the detector until the number clears \u2014 which is tuning a measurement to agree with a target. This asks the opposite question first.", "reproduces_published_answers": true, "schema": "canli.alphac-reachability-harness.v1", "verdict_meanings": { "GATE_ALREADY_CLEARS": "The gate already passes as measured; nothing to reach.", "GATE_BLENDS_TWO_POPULATIONS": "One threshold is applied across populations that do not share the obligation it tests. The blended rate describes none of them.", "GATE_UNREACHABLE_BY_DETECTOR_REPAIR": "A perfect detector reaches less than the gate requires. The shortfall is what the documents contain, not what the parser reads, and no extraction work will close it. The identity needs a redesign that names the document carrying the evidence before it names a threshold.", "REACHABLE_BY_DETECTOR_REPAIR": "A perfect detector would clear the gate, so the shortfall IS extraction and the work is worth doing. This is the only verdict that justifies parser effort." }, "what_does_not_generalise": "The CEILING PROBE. What a perfect detector would find is a property of the mechanism, so every family must supply its own; the harness makes that a required argument rather than inventing one. A harness that guessed the ceiling would be a rubber stamp.", "what_generalises": [ "the decision logic: measured rate vs gate vs ceiling, and the verdict that follows", "the heterogeneity test: whether a blended rate hides a subgroup that clears alone" ] }, "data_gate_unblocks": { "by_classification": { "BLOCKED_ON_EXTRACTION_QUALITY": [ "inflation_breakeven_relative_value", "merger_arbitrage", "tender_offer_spread" ], "BLOCKED_ON_FREE_CREDENTIAL": [ "electricity_load_weather" ], "BLOCKED_ON_HUMAN_ACCURACY_AUDIT": [ "active_ownership_13d_item4_v3" ], "BLOCKED_ON_HUMAN_BLIND_LABELING": [ "repurchase_issuance_flow" ], "BLOCKED_ON_IDENTITY_UNOBSERVABLE_AS_PREREGISTERED": [ "treasury_auction_concession" ], "BLOCKED_ON_MEASURED_REACHABILITY_CEILING": [ "customer_supplier_propagation", "spin_off_dislocation" ], "BLOCKED_ON_PAID_ARCHIVAL_AND_EXECUTABLE_DATA": [ "bond_etf_nav_dislocation" ], "BLOCKED_ON_PAID_DATA": [ "natural_gas_storage_weather" ], "BLOCKED_ON_PAID_OR_BOUNDED_MARKET_DATA_ROUTE": [ "pre_fomc_announcement_drift" ], "BLOCKED_ON_UNRECOVERABLE_RELEASE_LINEAGE": [ "cftc_hedging_pressure" ], "RETURN_OUTCOME_ALREADY_RECORDED": [ "earnings_narrative_change" ], "SUPERSEDED_HISTORICAL_RESULT": [ "active_ownership_13d", "active_ownership_13d_item4", "active_ownership_13d_item4_v2", "active_ownership_13d_schema_v2" ] }, "claim_boundary": "Classifies blockers only. Opens no return data, runs no backtest, registers no hypothesis, and claims nothing about any candidate's edge, sign or correlation. 0 trials.", "content_hash": "sha256:da34ede98431163e2b40998be2d7462e30048119aebebcb7b939395e14293bd5", "families": [ { "actionable_unblock": false, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d/result.json", "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d/result_parser_v1.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "SUPERSEDED_HISTORICAL_RESULT", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "DATA_GATED", "failing_gate_count": 4, "failing_gates": [ "every_year_at_least_100_initial_filings", "filed_by_matches_index_rate_gte_0_98", "headers_160_of_160", "unique_contemporaneous_ticker_rate_gte_0_80" ], "family": "active_ownership_13d", "passing_gate_count": 3, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d/result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": true }, { "actionable_unblock": false, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_item4/result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "SUPERSEDED_HISTORICAL_RESULT", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "DATA_GATED", "failing_gate_count": 2, "failing_gates": [ "item4_extraction_rate_gte_0_90", "submissions_160_of_160" ], "family": "active_ownership_13d_item4", "passing_gate_count": 3, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_item4/result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": true }, { "actionable_unblock": false, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_item4_v2/result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "SUPERSEDED_HISTORICAL_RESULT", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "DATA_GATED", "failing_gate_count": 2, "failing_gates": [ "item4_extraction_rate_gte_0_90", "submissions_160_of_160" ], "family": "active_ownership_13d_item4_v2", "passing_gate_count": 3, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_item4_v2/result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": true }, { "actionable_unblock": true, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3/result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "BLOCKED_ON_HUMAN_ACCURACY_AUDIT", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "HUMAN_AUDIT_REQUIRED", "failing_gate_count": 0, "failing_gates": [], "family": "active_ownership_13d_item4_v3", "passing_gate_count": 5, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3/result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": false }, { "actionable_unblock": false, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_schema_v2/result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "SUPERSEDED_HISTORICAL_RESULT", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "PASS_TO_DOCUMENT_FEASIBILITY", "failing_gate_count": 0, "failing_gates": [], "family": "active_ownership_13d_schema_v2", "passing_gate_count": 8, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_schema_v2/result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": true }, { "actionable_unblock": true, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/bond_etf_nav_dislocation/result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [ "issuer_premium_discount_coverage_at_least_98pct_each", "monthly_historical_holdings_120_each", "constituent_valuation_timestamps_available", "synchronized_etf_and_bond_execution_data_available" ], "classification": "BLOCKED_ON_PAID_ARCHIVAL_AND_EXECUTABLE_DATA", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "DATA_GATED", "failing_gate_count": 4, "failing_gates": [ "constituent_valuation_timestamps_available", "issuer_premium_discount_coverage_at_least_98pct_each", "monthly_historical_holdings_120_each", "synchronized_etf_and_bond_execution_data_available" ], "family": "bond_etf_nav_dislocation", "passing_gate_count": 1, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/bond_etf_nav_dislocation/result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": "PAID_ARCHIVAL_AND_EXECUTABLE_DATA_REQUIRED", "superseded": false }, { "actionable_unblock": true, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/cftc_hedging_pressure/result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [ "exact_historical_release_lineage", "fixed_tradable_contract_mapping" ], "classification": "BLOCKED_ON_UNRECOVERABLE_RELEASE_LINEAGE", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "DATA_GATED", "failing_gate_count": 2, "failing_gates": [ "exact_historical_release_lineage", "fixed_tradable_contract_mapping" ], "family": "cftc_hedging_pressure", "passing_gate_count": 5, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": "HISTORICAL_RELEASE_LINEAGE_CEILING_BELOW_GATE", "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/cftc_hedging_pressure/result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": false }, { "actionable_unblock": true, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/customer_supplier_propagation/result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "BLOCKED_ON_MEASURED_REACHABILITY_CEILING", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "DATA_GATED", "failing_gate_count": 1, "failing_gates": [ "strict_named_document_rate_at_least_50pct" ], "family": "customer_supplier_propagation", "passing_gate_count": 5, "reachability_verdict": "GATE_UNREACHABLE_BY_DETECTOR_REPAIR", "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/customer_supplier_propagation/result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": false }, { "actionable_unblock": false, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/earnings_narrative_change/result.json", "artifacts/feasibility/earnings_narrative_change/result_parser_v1.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "RETURN_OUTCOME_ALREADY_RECORDED", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "PASS_TO_RETURN_PREREGISTRATION", "failing_gate_count": 0, "failing_gates": [], "family": "earnings_narrative_change", "passing_gate_count": 9, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": { "result": "artifacts/probe/earnings_narrative_change/result.json", "return_data_opened": true, "return_hypotheses_spent": 1, "return_identity_id": "earnings_narrative_change_v1", "technically_eligible": false, "verdict": "KILL" }, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/earnings_narrative_change/result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": false }, { "actionable_unblock": true, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/electricity_load_weather/result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [ "official_eia_collection_rate_limited_or_unavailable" ], "classification": "BLOCKED_ON_FREE_CREDENTIAL", "credential_cost": { "EIA_API_KEY": { "cost": "FREE", "effort": "instant, email only", "obtain": "https://www.eia.gov/opendata/register.php" } }, "credentials_missing": [ "EIA_API_KEY" ], "credentials_required": [ "EIA_API_KEY" ], "decision": "DATA_GATED", "failing_gate_count": 0, "failing_gates": [], "family": "electricity_load_weather", "passing_gate_count": 0, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/electricity_load_weather/result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": false }, { "actionable_unblock": true, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/inflation_breakeven_relative_value/result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "BLOCKED_ON_EXTRACTION_QUALITY", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "DATA_GATED", "failing_gate_count": 3, "failing_gates": [ "all_atlas_maturities_present", "executable_instrument_history_present", "historical_signal_vintages_preserved" ], "family": "inflation_breakeven_relative_value", "passing_gate_count": 3, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/inflation_breakeven_relative_value/result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": false }, { "actionable_unblock": true, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/merger_arbitrage/result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": "RECORD_HELD_BUT_IDENTITY_REDESIGN_REQUIRED", "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "BLOCKED_ON_EXTRACTION_QUALITY", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "DATA_GATED", "failing_gate_count": 1, "failing_gates": [ "prior_item101_8k_rate_gte_0_80" ], "family": "merger_arbitrage", "passing_gate_count": 3, "reachability_verdict": "GATE_BLENDS_TWO_POPULATIONS", "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/merger_arbitrage/result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": false }, { "actionable_unblock": true, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/natural_gas_storage_weather/result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "BLOCKED_ON_PAID_DATA", "credential_cost": { "DATABENTO_API_KEY": { "cost": "PAID", "effort": "commercial agreement; usage-priced", "obtain": "https://databento.com" } }, "credentials_missing": [ "DATABENTO_API_KEY" ], "credentials_required": [ "DATABENTO_API_KEY" ], "decision": "DATA_GATED", "failing_gate_count": 1, "failing_gates": [ "wayback_first_release_capture_coverage_gte_0_90" ], "family": "natural_gas_storage_weather", "passing_gate_count": 5, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/natural_gas_storage_weather/result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": false }, { "actionable_unblock": true, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/pre_fomc_announcement_drift/annual_schedule_lineage.json", "artifacts/feasibility/pre_fomc_announcement_drift/market_data_readiness.json", "artifacts/feasibility/pre_fomc_announcement_drift/result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "BLOCKED_ON_PAID_OR_BOUNDED_MARKET_DATA_ROUTE", "credential_cost": { "POLYGON_API_KEY": { "cost": "FREE_TIER", "effort": "instant; free tier is rate-limited and may not cover the full history", "obtain": "https://polygon.io/dashboard/signup" } }, "credentials_missing": [ "POLYGON_API_KEY" ], "credentials_required": [ "POLYGON_API_KEY" ], "decision": "DATA_GATED", "failing_gate_count": 1, "failing_gates": [ "practical_server_filtered_or_bounded_download_route" ], "family": "pre_fomc_announcement_drift", "passing_gate_count": 8, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/pre_fomc_announcement_drift/market_data_readiness.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": false }, { "actionable_unblock": true, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/repurchase_issuance_flow/companyfacts_audit.json", "artifacts/feasibility/repurchase_issuance_flow/companyfacts_collection_result.json", "artifacts/feasibility/repurchase_issuance_flow/identity_overlap_audit.json", "artifacts/feasibility/repurchase_issuance_flow/item703/documents_result.json", "artifacts/feasibility/repurchase_issuance_flow/item703/manifest_result.json", "artifacts/feasibility/repurchase_issuance_flow/manifest_result.json", "artifacts/feasibility/repurchase_issuance_flow/semantics_audit.json", "artifacts/feasibility/repurchase_issuance_flow/submissions_collection_result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "BLOCKED_ON_HUMAN_BLIND_LABELING", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "READY_FOR_BLIND_LABELING", "failing_gate_count": 0, "failing_gates": [], "family": "repurchase_issuance_flow", "passing_gate_count": 0, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/repurchase_issuance_flow/item703/documents_result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": false }, { "actionable_unblock": true, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/spin_off_dislocation/document_schema_result.json", "artifacts/feasibility/spin_off_dislocation/result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "BLOCKED_ON_MEASURED_REACHABILITY_CEILING", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "DATA_GATED", "failing_gate_count": 1, "failing_gates": [ "pro_rata_distribution_language_rate_gte_0_30" ], "family": "spin_off_dislocation", "passing_gate_count": 7, "reachability_verdict": "GATE_UNREACHABLE_BY_DETECTOR_REPAIR", "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/spin_off_dislocation/document_schema_result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": false }, { "actionable_unblock": true, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/tender_offer_spread/result.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": "HELD_BUT_REACHABILITY_CEILING_NOT_MEASURED", "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "BLOCKED_ON_EXTRACTION_QUALITY", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "DATA_GATED", "failing_gate_count": 3, "failing_gates": [ "ambiguous_price_rate_lte_0_10", "recommendation_resolution_rate_gte_0_80", "unique_price_rate_gte_0_80" ], "family": "tender_offer_spread", "passing_gate_count": 3, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/tender_offer_spread/result.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": false }, { "actionable_unblock": true, "artifacts_considered": [ "artifacts/feasibility/treasury_auction_concession/calendar_revision_audit.json", "artifacts/feasibility/treasury_auction_concession/identity_timing.json", "artifacts/feasibility/treasury_auction_concession/result.json", "artifacts/feasibility/treasury_auction_concession/tentative_schedule_audit.json", "artifacts/feasibility/treasury_auction_concession/wayback_pdf_schedule_audit.json", "artifacts/feasibility/treasury_auction_concession/wayback_schedule_audit.json" ], "atlas_obtainability_verdict": null, "blocking_reasons": [], "classification": "BLOCKED_ON_IDENTITY_UNOBSERVABLE_AS_PREREGISTERED", "credential_cost": {}, "credentials_missing": [], "credentials_required": [], "decision": "IDENTITY_NOT_OBSERVABLE_AS_PREREGISTERED", "failing_gate_count": 1, "failing_gates": [ "exact_ten_session_identity_observable_for_all_dates" ], "family": "treasury_auction_concession", "passing_gate_count": 4, "reachability_verdict": null, "release_reachability_verdict": null, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "return_outcome": null, "source_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/treasury_auction_concession/calendar_revision_audit.json", "source_reachability_verdict": null, "superseded": false } ], "families_examined": 18, "honest_reading": "A credential unblocks COLLECTION, never admission. A family whose key arrives still has to pass its remaining feasibility gates, then pre-register, then clear all eighty-five admission checks. The free keys are worth registering because they are free, not because they are close to a sleeve. A family with a recorded return outcome is historical evidence, never an actionable data unblock.", "nearest_to_passing": [], "owner_actions": [ { "action": "register EIA_API_KEY (FREE) at https://www.eia.gov/opendata/register.php", "effort": "instant, email only", "unblocks": [ "electricity_load_weather" ] }, { "action": "register DATABENTO_API_KEY (PAID) at https://databento.com", "effort": "commercial agreement; usage-priced", "unblocks": [ "natural_gas_storage_weather" ] }, { "action": "commission one independent reviewer to complete the frozen 60-document Item 703 packet and attestation", "effort": "manual source review; no parser output, prices, or returns", "packet": "artifacts/labeling/repurchase_item703_blind/manifest.json", "packet_content_hash": "sha256:0e70f38f7d07e2d22d5834ce1336401518f3704f29023097be3d973e14c928c8", "unblocks": [ "repurchase_issuance_flow" ] }, { "action": "commission one independent reviewer to complete the frozen 48-document active-ownership Item 4 packet and attestation", "effort": "manual source review; no parser output, prices, or returns", "packet": "artifacts/labeling/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3_blind/manifest.json", "packet_content_hash": "sha256:98a1c738a1476ad1079e1746e656295e6602e70dc198752290fd9924340c0a42", "unblocks": [ "active_ownership_13d_item4_v3" ] } ], "schema": "canli.alphac-data-gate-unblocks.v1" }, "tender_offer_reachability": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This audit classifies whether parser work is evidentially justified. It does not claim edge, sign, return, Sharpe, drawdown, capacity, correlation or admission.", "content_hash": "sha256:20855abc04b272ab03a044ec1d2ba26bdf82c85055892d8293f5b684f6fd839c", "decision": "CEILING_NOT_MEASURED", "evidence_date": "2026-08-22", "locked_sample": { "all_label_document_hashes_match": true, "completed_accuracy_labels": 0, "documents": 100, "frozen_accuracy_documents": 30, "item4_sections_extracted": 94 }, "market_return_files_opened": [], "observed_parser_result": { "feasibility_decision": "DATA_GATED", "multiple_price_sections": 70, "resolved_recommendation_sections": 21, "unique_price_sections": 10 }, "parser_work_authorized": false, "required_next_evidence": "Complete all 30 frozen, hash-bound human labels and score exact price/ineligibility and recommendation agreement. Only then can a perfect-detector ceiling distinguish repairable extraction from language that does not identify one tradable state.", "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "schema": "canli.alphac-tender-offer-reachability.v1", "source_lineage": { "document_audit_path": "artifacts/feasibility/tender_offer_spread/document_audit.parquet", "document_audit_sha256": "e067a360c1ace1493b736a7c0c27a3ca223fd5d2a3e9fc42de0dbfee5a5441e9", "feasibility_result_path": "artifacts/feasibility/tender_offer_spread/result.json", "feasibility_result_sha256": "8e4a20518aef7534c082dfea8f6108840abd922e524d8415b67b63f9166fb607", "frozen_labels_path": "artifacts/feasibility/tender_offer_spread/frozen_human_labels.csv", "frozen_labels_sha256": "14272c5f9e6e740cc1553e57f0c019c610c7988579b32beebfda15e59a1412d7", "protocol_path": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_TENDER_OFFER_SPREAD.md", "protocol_sha256": "4081df46a5e781fd78c77953a173434163058f343bb3e8408c456b23f4335789" }, "stage": "document_extraction_reachability_no_prices_no_returns" }, "sharadar_zero_dividend_quarantine": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This audit proves that one of 11 vendor-originated non-positive cash-dividend rows propagated unchanged into the filtered Sharadar executable lake and that issuer filings describe a positive underlying dividend. It does not establish the executable net USD ADS amount, does not repair the row, opens no returns, and validates no performance claim.", "content_hash": "sha256:01e743030356b2dc149da404d6504739b9a7a18531fd773d0abb573eeb74ab4c", "decision": "QUARANTINE_REQUIRED_NO_AUTOMATIC_REPAIR", "external_primary_evidence": { "issuer_20f": { "facts": { "equity_shares_per_ads": 3 }, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144967/000119312525158722/d854075d20f.htm" }, "issuer_6k": { "facts": { "payment_on_or_after": "2025-08-11", "recommended_dividend_inr_per_equity_share": 22.0, "record_date": "2025-06-27" }, "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144967/000119312525146102/d60580dex99.htm" }, "vendor_schema": { "facts": { "actions_value_type": "numeric", "date_action_ticker_are_primary_key_fields": true }, "url": "https://sharadar.com/docs/actions" } }, "gates": { "automatic_amount_or_date_imputation_permitted": false, "executable_lake_row_uniquely_identified": true, "issuer_declared_positive_underlying_dividend": true, "net_usd_cash_per_ads_established_from_primary_evidence": false, "raw_hdb_row_uniquely_identified": true, "raw_to_lake_propagation_proven": true, "vendor_date_semantics_established_for_this_row": false }, "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "engine_path": "src/alphaforge/backtest/engine.py", "engine_sha256": "sha256:fe2b70d304a615f44eb7cf87bb3381f383cb526fc987f2a0569db7faa4535103", "lake_partition_sha256": "sha256:a4985291c6eb3bbafd3f2e3df513dd5b98b11185914f746db04305475921de17", "loader_path": "scripts/sharadar_load.py", "loader_sha256": "sha256:a1647ebdabe1396ca52cfe812d44c26ab88974bf79b3b3a96f23befe0bd2fa91", "raw_archive_path": "data/sharadar_raw/ACTIONS.zip", "raw_archive_sha256": "sha256:166d6ae17921b6a3a1f13a734e43bfd32ca5d9e88398030290a5246c89d7185c", "raw_member": "SHARADAR_ACTIONS_2_29fe246cadf640e7e1609af39f779093.csv" }, "quarantine_contract": { "existing_row": "Preserve the raw archive and current partition by hash. Do not silently drop, move, or replace the row in an identity-bound replay.", "future_ingest": "Reject every split or dividend whose value is non-finite or non-positive before writing the executable corporate-action lake.", "unlock": "Obtain an issuer/depositary or corrected-vendor record establishing the ADS ex-date, knowable-at timestamp, and net USD cash amount. Then create a new versioned corrected lake and replay environment; retain this failed attempt." }, "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-sharadar-zero-dividend-audit.v1", "source_defect": { "lake_nonpositive_dividend_rows": 1, "lake_row": { "action_type": "dividend", "available_at": "2025-06-26 04:00:00+04", "cash_amount": 0.0, "ex_date": "2025-06-26 04:00:00+04", "ingested_at": "2026-06-25 16:25:02.14+04", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:HDBUSD", "path": "data/lake_sharadar/corporate_actions/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:HDBUSD/year=2025/data.parquet", "ratio": 1.0 }, "raw_archive_nonpositive_dividend_rows": 11, "raw_archive_nonpositive_dividend_tickers": [ "BIB", "BIS", "GROM", "GROW", "HDB", "HYZD", "IMVIQ", "PTF", "RVPH", "TECL", "WAVC" ], "raw_hdb_nonpositive_dividend_rows": 1, "raw_hdb_row": { "action": "dividend", "contraname": "N/A", "contraticker": "N/A", "date": "2025-06-26", "name": "HDFC BANK LTD", "ticker": "HDB", "value": "0.0" } }, "status": "DATA_CORRECTION_BLOCKED_ON_EXECUTABLE_SEMANTICS" }, "sharadar_dividend_price_consistency": { "affected_instrument_counts": { "XUSE:CASH:ADAMUSD": 6, "XUSE:CASH:AHTUSD": 58, "XUSE:CASH:AIFUUSD": 22, "XUSE:CASH:ARRUSD": 4, "XUSE:CASH:BCICUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:BEBE1USD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:BSBRUSD": 2, "XUSE:CASH:BXMTUSD": 2, "XUSE:CASH:CETXUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:CHKAQUSD": 3, "XUSE:CASH:CMCMUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:CMCTUSD": 111, "XUSE:CASH:CXWUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD": 17, "XUSE:CASH:DRYSUSD": 17, "XUSE:CASH:EGLE2USD": 13, "XUSE:CASH:EMKRUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:EMMSUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD": 9, "XUSE:CASH:FLNAUSD": 2, "XUSE:CASH:FTRCQUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:GEGUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:GFASYUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:GLAEUSD": 23, "XUSE:CASH:GYREUSD": 3, "XUSE:CASH:IVRUSD": 2, "XUSE:CASH:KANTUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:LENZUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:LGNDUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:MACKUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:MNIQQUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:MRVCUSD": 3, "XUSE:CASH:MTBLYUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:NBRUSD": 2, "XUSE:CASH:NVECUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:NVLNFUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:NYRTUSD": 2, "XUSE:CASH:OCGNUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:ORIGUSD": 5, "XUSE:CASH:PCBCUSD": 3, "XUSE:CASH:PFXUSD": 2, "XUSE:CASH:PRETUSD": 2, "XUSE:CASH:PRTKUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:QVCAQUSD": 3, "XUSE:CASH:RNWKUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:SFUNYUSD": 7, "XUSE:CASH:SITCUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:STCNUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:TRVGUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:TWCUSD": 1, "XUSE:CASH:VATEUSD": 4, "XUSE:CASH:VEONUSD": 9, "XUSE:CASH:VSAUSD": 3, "XUSE:CASH:WHCIUSD": 3, "XUSE:CASH:WHLRUSD": 55 }, "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This is a source-data and executable-semantics audit. It opens no signals, positions, returns, Sharpe ratios, or strategy outcomes and makes no investment performance claim.", "content_hash": "sha256:57d11336c0c7daca85ea3332b46461c3cad48562fd35f6aea02b96fd320a3510", "decision": "DIVIDEND_PRICE_CONSISTENCY_FAILED", "evidence_date": "2026-08-23", "lineage": { "audit_command": "uv run python scripts/audit_sharadar_dividend_price_consistency.py", "engine": "src/alphaforge/backtest/engine.py", "engine_sha256": "84b42685d6ad4fe14897bcd90b8ed766ea7a63815cec11e6dc428ecaa8a78647", "lake": "data/lake_sharadar", "loader": "scripts/sharadar_load.py", "loader_sha256": "a1647ebdabe1396ca52cfe812d44c26ab88974bf79b3b3a96f23befe0bd2fa91", "raw_actions_archive": "data/sharadar_raw/ACTIONS.zip", "raw_actions_archive_sha256": "166d6ae17921b6a3a1f13a734e43bfd32ca5d9e88398030290a5246c89d7185c" }, "missing_pre_close_rows": [ { "available_at": "2017-12-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.04477, "ex_date": "2017-12-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACTUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2018-12-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.368, "ex_date": "2018-12-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACTUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2019-12-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.62026, "ex_date": "2019-12-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACTUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "1997-12-31T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.0125, "ex_date": "1997-12-31T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ASM1USD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "1998-08-05T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 1.214, "ex_date": "1998-08-05T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AUUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2001-04-25T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.3195, "ex_date": "2001-04-25T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:BAYRYUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2017-07-05T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 17.5, "ex_date": "2017-07-05T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:BKRUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "1997-12-31T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.674, "ex_date": "1997-12-31T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:BTTGYUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2016-05-31T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 14.5, "ex_date": "2016-05-31T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CCEPUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "1997-12-31T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.21, "ex_date": "1997-12-31T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CPBUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "1998-06-03T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.7142, "ex_date": "1998-06-03T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CSUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "1999-06-01T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.7116, "ex_date": "1999-06-01T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CSUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2000-05-26T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.895, "ex_date": "2000-05-26T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CSUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2001-08-15T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 1.17, "ex_date": "2001-08-15T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CSUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "1999-03-29T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.06667, "ex_date": "1999-03-29T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "1999-06-30T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.06667, "ex_date": "1999-06-30T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "1999-10-01T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.07333, "ex_date": "1999-10-01T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "1999-12-29T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.07333, "ex_date": "1999-12-29T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2000-03-29T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.08, "ex_date": "2000-03-29T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2000-06-28T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.08, "ex_date": "2000-06-28T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2000-09-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.08, "ex_date": "2000-09-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2000-12-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.08667, "ex_date": "2000-12-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2001-03-28T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.08667, "ex_date": "2001-03-28T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2001-06-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.08667, "ex_date": "2001-06-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2001-09-26T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.09333, "ex_date": "2001-09-26T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2001-12-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.1, "ex_date": "2001-12-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2002-03-26T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.1, "ex_date": "2002-03-26T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2002-06-26T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.1, "ex_date": "2002-06-26T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2002-09-26T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.1, "ex_date": "2002-09-26T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2002-12-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.10667, "ex_date": "2002-12-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2003-03-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.11333, "ex_date": "2003-03-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2003-06-26T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.12, "ex_date": "2003-06-26T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2003-09-26T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.13333, "ex_date": "2003-09-26T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2003-12-29T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.42, "ex_date": "2003-12-29T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2004-03-29T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.16, "ex_date": "2004-03-29T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2004-06-30T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.16667, "ex_date": "2004-06-30T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2004-09-28T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.18, "ex_date": "2004-09-28T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2004-12-29T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.21, "ex_date": "2004-12-29T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2005-03-29T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.22, "ex_date": "2005-03-29T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2005-06-29T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.23, "ex_date": "2005-06-29T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2005-09-28T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.23, "ex_date": "2005-09-28T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2005-12-28T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.23, "ex_date": "2005-12-28T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2006-04-06T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.23, "ex_date": "2006-04-06T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2006-07-06T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.23, "ex_date": "2006-07-06T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2006-10-05T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.23, "ex_date": "2006-10-05T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2006-12-28T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.23, "ex_date": "2006-12-28T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2007-04-04T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.23, "ex_date": "2007-04-04T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2007-07-05T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.23, "ex_date": "2007-07-05T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2007-10-04T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.23, "ex_date": "2007-10-04T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2007-12-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.23, "ex_date": "2007-12-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2008-04-04T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.23, "ex_date": "2008-04-04T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DCOMUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "1997-12-31T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.25, "ex_date": "1997-12-31T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:EIXUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "1997-12-31T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.11875, "ex_date": "1997-12-31T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ENRNQUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "1997-12-31T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.01667, "ex_date": "1997-12-31T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:EXPUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "2000-04-14T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.1908, "ex_date": "2000-04-14T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBRUSD", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_multiple": null, "pre_close_ts": null }, { "available_at": "1998-03-12T04:00:00+04:00", 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"cash_amount": 11.0, "ex_date": "2009-03-12T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:PCBCUSD", "pre_close": 6.7, "pre_close_multiple": 1.6417910447761193, "pre_close_ts": "2009-03-11T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2008-11-26T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 8.54957, "ex_date": "2008-11-26T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:PRETUSD", "pre_close": 5.29, "pre_close_multiple": 1.6161758034026463, "pre_close_ts": "2008-11-25T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2015-03-11T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 9.5, "ex_date": "2015-03-11T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:SFUNYUSD", "pre_close": 5.89, "pre_close_multiple": 1.6129032258064517, "pre_close_ts": "2015-03-10T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2008-07-18T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 22.0, "ex_date": "2008-07-18T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:PCBCUSD", "pre_close": 13.72, "pre_close_multiple": 1.6034985422740524, "pre_close_ts": "2008-07-17T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2013-07-25T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 50.0, "ex_date": "2013-07-25T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:SFUNYUSD", "pre_close": 31.49, "pre_close_multiple": 1.5878056525881232, "pre_close_ts": "2013-07-24T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2020-05-20T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 5.0, "ex_date": "2020-05-20T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:IVRUSD", "pre_close": 3.17, "pre_close_multiple": 1.5772870662460567, "pre_close_ts": "2020-05-19T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2000-06-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 17.77778, "ex_date": "2000-06-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD", "pre_close": 11.812, "pre_close_multiple": 1.5050609549610565, "pre_close_ts": "2000-06-26T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2004-12-28T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 72.0, "ex_date": "2004-12-28T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD", "pre_close": 47.86, "pre_close_multiple": 1.5043877977434184, "pre_close_ts": "2004-12-27T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2007-04-03T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 15.0, "ex_date": "2007-04-03T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:LGNDUSD", "pre_close": 9.99, "pre_close_multiple": 1.5015015015015014, "pre_close_ts": "2007-04-02T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2010-07-19T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 10.0, "ex_date": "2010-07-19T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:BEBE1USD", "pre_close": 6.79, "pre_close_multiple": 1.4727540500736378, "pre_close_ts": "2010-07-16T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2003-12-26T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 48.0, "ex_date": "2003-12-26T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD", "pre_close": 32.62, "pre_close_multiple": 1.471489883507051, "pre_close_ts": "2003-12-24T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2006-10-04T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 5.6, "ex_date": "2006-10-04T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADAMUSD", "pre_close": 3.85, "pre_close_multiple": 1.4545454545454544, "pre_close_ts": "2006-10-03T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2005-09-14T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 25.0, "ex_date": "2005-09-14T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD", "pre_close": 17.41, "pre_close_multiple": 1.4359563469270533, "pre_close_ts": "2005-09-13T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2004-09-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 60.0, "ex_date": "2004-09-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD", "pre_close": 41.8, "pre_close_multiple": 1.4354066985645935, "pre_close_ts": "2004-09-24T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2004-03-26T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 48.0, "ex_date": "2004-03-26T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD", "pre_close": 33.97, "pre_close_multiple": 1.413011480718281, "pre_close_ts": "2004-03-25T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2018-03-02T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 4.25, "ex_date": "2018-03-02T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VEONUSD", "pre_close": 3.02, "pre_close_multiple": 1.4072847682119205, "pre_close_ts": "2018-03-01T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2006-07-03T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 5.6, "ex_date": "2006-07-03T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADAMUSD", "pre_close": 4.0, "pre_close_multiple": 1.4, "pre_close_ts": "2006-06-30T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2009-03-09T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.9, "ex_date": "2009-03-09T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:MNIQQUSD", "pre_close": 0.68, "pre_close_multiple": 1.3235294117647058, "pre_close_ts": "2009-03-06T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2011-08-24T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 4.0, "ex_date": "2011-08-24T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:RNWKUSD", "pre_close": 3.05, "pre_close_multiple": 1.3114754098360657, "pre_close_ts": "2011-08-23T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2011-03-15T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 8.52476, "ex_date": "2011-03-15T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:STCNUSD", "pre_close": 6.58, "pre_close_multiple": 1.2955562310030395, "pre_close_ts": "2011-03-14T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "1999-12-28T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 14.22222, "ex_date": "1999-12-28T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD", "pre_close": 11.188, "pre_close_multiple": 1.2712030747229173, "pre_close_ts": "1999-12-27T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2006-11-24T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 16.0, "ex_date": "2006-11-24T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:EMMSUSD", "pre_close": 12.63, "pre_close_multiple": 1.2668250197941409, "pre_close_ts": "2006-11-22T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2006-01-04T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 8.4, "ex_date": "2006-01-04T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADAMUSD", "pre_close": 6.75, "pre_close_multiple": 1.2444444444444445, "pre_close_ts": "2006-01-03T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2005-06-15T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 25.0, "ex_date": "2005-06-15T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD", "pre_close": 20.39, "pre_close_multiple": 1.2260912211868562, "pre_close_ts": "2005-06-14T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2004-06-14T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 25.0, "ex_date": "2004-06-14T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD", "pre_close": 20.41, "pre_close_multiple": 1.224889759921607, "pre_close_ts": "2004-06-10T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2005-03-15T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 25.0, "ex_date": "2005-03-15T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD", "pre_close": 20.51, "pre_close_multiple": 1.2189176011701608, "pre_close_ts": "2005-03-14T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2020-02-28T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 3.14984, "ex_date": "2020-02-28T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:PRETUSD", "pre_close": 2.59, "pre_close_multiple": 1.2161544401544402, "pre_close_ts": "2020-02-27T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2020-03-30T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.7, "ex_date": "2020-03-30T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:PFXUSD", "pre_close": 0.58, "pre_close_multiple": 1.206896551724138, "pre_close_ts": "2020-03-27T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2017-03-28T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 4.875, "ex_date": "2017-03-28T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VEONUSD", "pre_close": 4.09, "pre_close_multiple": 1.1919315403422983, "pre_close_ts": "2017-03-27T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2019-08-13T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 3.25, "ex_date": "2019-08-13T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VEONUSD", "pre_close": 2.78, "pre_close_multiple": 1.169064748201439, "pre_close_ts": "2019-08-12T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2015-04-13T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 17.4, "ex_date": "2015-04-13T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CHKAQUSD", "pre_close": 14.93, "pre_close_multiple": 1.1654387139986604, "pre_close_ts": "2015-04-10T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2004-12-13T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 25.0, "ex_date": "2004-12-13T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD", "pre_close": 21.88, "pre_close_multiple": 1.1425959780621573, "pre_close_ts": "2004-12-10T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2004-09-13T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 25.0, "ex_date": "2004-09-13T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD", "pre_close": 22.0, "pre_close_multiple": 1.1363636363636365, "pre_close_ts": "2004-09-10T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2020-03-11T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.5, "ex_date": "2020-03-11T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:NBRUSD", "pre_close": 0.44, "pre_close_multiple": 1.1363636363636365, "pre_close_ts": "2020-03-10T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2008-09-26T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.625, "ex_date": "2008-09-26T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WHCIUSD", "pre_close": 0.55, "pre_close_multiple": 1.1363636363636362, "pre_close_ts": "2008-09-25T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2005-10-04T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 8.4, "ex_date": "2005-10-04T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADAMUSD", "pre_close": 7.44, "pre_close_multiple": 1.129032258064516, "pre_close_ts": "2005-10-03T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2000-09-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 17.77778, "ex_date": "2000-09-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD", "pre_close": 15.75, "pre_close_multiple": 1.1287479365079365, "pre_close_ts": "2000-09-26T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2009-03-10T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 1.6, "ex_date": "2009-03-10T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:SITCUSD", "pre_close": 1.43, "pre_close_multiple": 1.118881118881119, "pre_close_ts": "2009-03-09T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2003-03-28T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 37.33333, "ex_date": "2003-03-28T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD", "pre_close": 33.66, "pre_close_multiple": 1.109130421865716, "pre_close_ts": "2003-03-27T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2008-10-20T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 22.0, "ex_date": "2008-10-20T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:PCBCUSD", "pre_close": 20.3, "pre_close_multiple": 1.083743842364532, "pre_close_ts": "2008-10-17T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2012-05-30T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 8.75, "ex_date": "2012-05-30T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VEONUSD", "pre_close": 8.11, "pre_close_multiple": 1.0789149198520347, "pre_close_ts": "2012-05-29T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2018-08-13T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 3.0, "ex_date": "2018-08-13T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VEONUSD", "pre_close": 2.8, "pre_close_multiple": 1.0714285714285714, "pre_close_ts": "2018-08-10T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2002-09-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 26.66667, "ex_date": "2002-09-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD", "pre_close": 25.01, "pre_close_multiple": 1.0662403038784485, "pre_close_ts": "2002-09-26T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "1999-09-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 14.22222, "ex_date": "1999-09-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD", "pre_close": 13.375, "pre_close_multiple": 1.0633435514018692, "pre_close_ts": "1999-09-24T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2014-01-07T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 0.11342, "ex_date": "2014-01-07T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:BSBRUSD", "pre_close": 0.107, "pre_close_multiple": 1.06, "pre_close_ts": "2014-01-06T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2013-01-11T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 17.5, "ex_date": "2013-01-11T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CHKAQUSD", "pre_close": 16.73, "pre_close_multiple": 1.0460251046025104, "pre_close_ts": "2013-01-10T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2006-04-04T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 5.6, "ex_date": "2006-04-04T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADAMUSD", "pre_close": 5.37, "pre_close_multiple": 1.042830540037244, "pre_close_ts": "2006-04-03T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2013-12-30T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 3.50119, "ex_date": "2013-12-30T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:GFASYUSD", "pre_close": 3.36, "pre_close_multiple": 1.0420208333333334, "pre_close_ts": "2013-12-27T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2018-12-12T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 3.0, "ex_date": "2018-12-12T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:NBRUSD", "pre_close": 2.88, "pre_close_multiple": 1.0416666666666667, "pre_close_ts": "2018-12-11T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2006-03-13T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 15.0, "ex_date": "2006-03-13T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD", "pre_close": 14.5, "pre_close_multiple": 1.0344827586206897, "pre_close_ts": "2006-03-10T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2006-09-13T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 15.0, "ex_date": "2006-09-13T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD", "pre_close": 14.51, "pre_close_multiple": 1.0337698139214335, "pre_close_ts": "2006-09-12T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2005-06-10T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 10.0, "ex_date": "2005-06-10T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADAMUSD", "pre_close": 9.75, "pre_close_multiple": 1.0256410256410255, "pre_close_ts": "2005-06-09T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2005-12-14T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 15.0, "ex_date": "2005-12-14T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD", "pre_close": 14.75, "pre_close_multiple": 1.0169491525423728, "pre_close_ts": "2005-12-13T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2016-02-22T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 6.0, "ex_date": "2016-02-22T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:PFXUSD", "pre_close": 5.9, "pre_close_multiple": 1.0169491525423728, "pre_close_ts": "2016-02-19T04:00:00+04:00" }, { "available_at": "2020-03-27T04:00:00+04:00", "cash_amount": 5.0, "ex_date": "2020-03-27T04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:IVRUSD", "pre_close": 4.92, "pre_close_multiple": 1.016260162601626, "pre_close_ts": "2020-03-26T04:00:00+04:00" } ], "schema": "canli.alphac-sharadar-dividend-price-consistency.v1", "summary": { "affected_instruments": 55, "dividend_rows": 167120, "maximum_pre_close_multiple": 42871899.588227846, "rows_above_full_pre_ex_close": 422, "rows_above_half_pre_ex_close": 734, "rows_without_pre_ex_close": 259 }, "threshold": { "comparison": "cash_amount / last raw close with ts_open < ex_date", "failure_policy": "Fail closed. Do not execute, impute, scale, or silently drop the row without independently bound lifecycle and vendor-unit semantics.", "maximum_plain_cash_dividend_to_pre_ex_raw_close": 1.0 } }, "sharadar_dividend_split_basis": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "The arithmetic strongly supports a split-adjustment-basis explanation for 421 rows, but public vendor documentation labels ACTIONS.value only as numeric. This audit authorizes no lake mutation, replay, trial, sleeve, or performance claim.", "classified_rows": [ { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.017501225329391388, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.014768966522693154, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2016-03-29T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 3.4449060257522506e-10, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WHLRUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 1.185, "source_cash_amount": 50803201.01205, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 42871899.588227846 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.017501225329391388, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.01470691204150537, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2016-02-25T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 3.4449060257522506e-10, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WHLRUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 1.19, "source_cash_amount": 50803201.01205, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 42691765.55634454 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.017501225329391388, 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"future_split_product": 0.06667, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:PRETUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 2.59, "source_cash_amount": 3.14984, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.2161544401544402 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.034999999999999996, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.06034482758620689, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2020-03-30T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.05, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:PFXUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 0.58, "source_cash_amount": 0.7, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.206896551724138 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.195, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.047677261613691936, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2017-03-28T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.04, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VEONUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 4.09, "source_cash_amount": 4.875, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.1919315403422983 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.13, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.04676258992805756, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2019-08-13T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.04, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VEONUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 2.78, "source_cash_amount": 3.25, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.169064748201439 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.087, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.005827193569993302, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2015-04-13T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.005, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CHKAQUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 14.93, "source_cash_amount": 17.4, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.1654387139986604 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.25000000000000006, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.011425959780621575, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2004-12-13T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.010000000000000002, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 21.88, "source_cash_amount": 25.0, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.1425959780621573 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.25000000000000006, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.011363636363636366, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2004-09-13T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.010000000000000002, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 22.0, "source_cash_amount": 25.0, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.1363636363636365 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.01, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.022727272727272728, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2020-03-11T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.02, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:NBRUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 0.44, "source_cash_amount": 0.5, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.1363636363636365 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.0125, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.022727272727272728, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2008-09-26T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.02, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WHCIUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 0.55, "source_cash_amount": 0.625, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.1363636363636362 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.21000000000000002, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.028225806451612906, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2005-10-04T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.025, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADAMUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 7.44, "source_cash_amount": 8.4, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.129032258064516 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.10000001250000003, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.0063492071428571445, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2000-09-27T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.0056250000000000015, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 15.75, "source_cash_amount": 17.77778, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.1287479365079365 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.2, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.13986013986013987, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2009-03-10T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.125, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:SITCUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 1.43, "source_cash_amount": 1.6, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.118881118881119 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.1399999875, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.004159239081996435, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2003-03-28T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.0037500000000000007, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 33.66, "source_cash_amount": 37.33333, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.109130421865716 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.22, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.01083743842364532, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2008-10-20T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.01, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:PCBCUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 20.3, "source_cash_amount": 22.0, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.083743842364532 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.35000000000000003, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.04315659679408139, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2012-05-30T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.04, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VEONUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 8.11, "source_cash_amount": 8.75, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.0789149198520347 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.12, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.04285714285714286, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2018-08-13T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.04, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VEONUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 2.8, "source_cash_amount": 3.0, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.0714285714285714 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.10000001250000001, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.003998401139544183, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2002-09-27T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.0037500000000000007, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 25.01, "source_cash_amount": 26.66667, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.0662403038784485 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.07999998750000002, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.005981307476635516, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "1999-09-27T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.0056250000000000015, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRLCQUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 13.375, "source_cash_amount": 14.22222, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.0633435514018692 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.0020619756000000004, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.019270800000000005, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2014-01-07T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.01818, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:BSBRUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 0.107, "source_cash_amount": 0.11342, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.06 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.08750000000000001, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.005230125523012553, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2013-01-11T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.005, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CHKAQUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 16.73, "source_cash_amount": 17.5, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.0460251046025104 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.13999999999999999, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.026070763500931095, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2006-04-04T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.025, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADAMUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 5.37, "source_cash_amount": 5.6, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.042830540037244 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.2596832623, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.07728668520833333, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2013-12-30T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.07417, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:GFASYUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 3.36, "source_cash_amount": 3.50119, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.0420208333333334 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.06, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.020833333333333332, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2018-12-12T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.02, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:NBRUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 2.88, "source_cash_amount": 3.0, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.0416666666666667 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.15000000000000002, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.010344827586206898, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2006-03-13T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.010000000000000002, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 14.5, "source_cash_amount": 15.0, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.0344827586206897 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.15000000000000002, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.010337698139214337, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2006-09-13T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.010000000000000002, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 14.51, "source_cash_amount": 15.0, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.0337698139214335 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.25, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.02564102564102564, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2005-06-10T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.025, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADAMUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 9.75, "source_cash_amount": 10.0, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.0256410256410255 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.15000000000000002, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.01016949152542373, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2005-12-14T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.010000000000000002, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FBCUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 14.75, "source_cash_amount": 15.0, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.0169491525423728 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.30000000000000004, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.05084745762711865, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2016-02-22T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.05, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:PFXUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 5.9, "source_cash_amount": 6.0, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.0169491525423728 }, { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 0.5, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 0.1016260162601626, "classification": "ARITHMETICALLY_RECONCILED_BY_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2020-03-27T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.1, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:IVRUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 4.92, "source_cash_amount": 5.0, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 1.016260162601626 } ], "content_hash": "sha256:cb32298cec76a2a4713dd8e3a892dc5c1aca03a684f951c9d7fbf59e3048b894", "decision": "SPLIT_BASIS_HYPOTHESIS_SUPPORTED_CORRECTION_NOT_AUTHORIZED", "evidence_date": "2026-08-23", "lineage": { "raw_actions_archive": "data/sharadar_raw/ACTIONS.zip", "raw_actions_archive_sha256": "166d6ae17921b6a3a1f13a734e43bfd32ca5d9e88398030290a5246c89d7185c", "sharadar_actions_documentation": "https://sharadar.com/docs/actions", "sharadar_stock_price_documentation": "https://sharadar.com/docs/stocks", "source_audit_content_hash": "sha256:57d11336c0c7daca85ea3332b46461c3cad48562fd35f6aea02b96fd320a3510", "source_audit_path": "artifacts/audit/sharadar_dividend_price_consistency.json", "source_audit_sha256": "1d590c208a8eb5f4722058cf386fc1f5aba7d950bfe9aa48e489825253f98ec2" }, "method": "For each impossible dividend, multiply the source value by every same-day or later market-price split for the same raw ticker, then compare the candidate raw cash amount with the sealed strictly pre-ex unadjusted close. Inverse ADR-ratio metadata is not executed as a second share mutation.", "required_next_action": "Obtain explicit vendor adjustment-basis semantics before converting any of the 421 reconciled rows. Resolve the remaining VATE row through issuer distribution evidence. Keep all 422 rows quarantined until both requirements are bound.", "residual_instrument_counts": { "XUSE:CASH:VATEUSD": 1 }, "schema": "canli.alphac-sharadar-dividend-split-basis-audit.v1", "summary": { "arithmetically_reconciled_fraction": 0.9976303317535545, "arithmetically_reconciled_rows": 421, "maximum_rebased_close_multiple": 1.2880794701986755, "residual_unresolved_instruments": 1, "residual_unresolved_rows": 1, "source_offending_rows": 422 } }, "vate_2020_dividend_resolution": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "basis_audit_residual": { "candidate_raw_cash_amount": 3.89, "candidate_raw_close_multiple": 1.2880794701986755, "classification": "REMAINS_UNRESOLVED_AFTER_FUTURE_SPLITS", "ex_date": "2020-05-14T04:00:00+04:00", "future_split_product": 0.1, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VATEUSD", "pre_ex_raw_close": 3.02, "source_cash_amount": 38.9, "source_to_raw_close_multiple": 12.880794701986755 }, "claim_boundary": "This authorizes only exact-row quarantine in a new physical lake version. It does not establish a replacement amount, authorize split-basis conversion of the other 421 rows, open returns, spend a hypothesis, rerun a strategy, or validate performance.", "content_hash": "sha256:5db7f46a0b1c66f7052a65178632f1244a6cec926fdfc45eaae684456147ca11", "decision": "VERSIONED_UNSUPPORTED_DIVIDEND_ROW_QUARANTINE_AUTHORIZED", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "independent_vendor_check": { "cash_dividend_rows_returned": 0, "credentials_published": false, "endpoint": "https://data.alpaca.markets/v1/corporate-actions", "limitation": "Absence from a second provider is corroboration, not proof of complete historical coverage. The issuer filing is the governing evidence.", "provider": "Alpaca Market Data corporate-actions API", "query": { "data_quality": "all", "end": "2020-12-31", "region": "all", "start": "2020-01-01", "symbols": "HCHC,VATE", "types": "cash_dividend" } }, "issuer_evidence": { "finding": "The issuer says it did not anticipate paying cash dividends in the foreseeable future and separately reports preferred-share dividends. No common-share cash dividend corresponding to the source row is established.", "form_10k_sha256": "940488bd79570a77406b5e754b4db76eb93be8897a18a4ca553a2848806e2413", "form_10k_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1006837/000100683721000027/hchc-20201231.htm", "period_of_report": "2020-12-31", "provider": "U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission", "same_date_form_8k_subject": "board reconstitution and governance settlement", "same_date_form_8k_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1006837/000110465920061613/tm2019732d1_8k.htm" }, "lineage": { "raw_actions_archive": "data/sharadar_raw/ACTIONS.zip", "raw_actions_archive_sha256": "166d6ae17921b6a3a1f13a734e43bfd32ca5d9e88398030290a5246c89d7185c", "split_basis_audit_content_hash": "sha256:cb32298cec76a2a4713dd8e3a892dc5c1aca03a684f951c9d7fbf59e3048b894", "split_basis_audit_path": "artifacts/audit/sharadar_dividend_split_basis.json", "split_basis_audit_sha256": "6ab87e87f8c0f31c680324c818a9c3fea4b113c90a011447996150c0719a9f04" }, "repair_contract": { "cash_amount_imputation_permitted": false, "original_lake_mutation_permitted": false, "rows_permitted_to_remove": [ { "action": "dividend", "date": "2020-05-14", "name": "INNOVATE CORP", "ticker": "VATE", "value": 38.9 } ], "versioned_exact_row_quarantine_permitted": true }, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T02:07:16.163028+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-vate-2020-dividend-resolution.v1", "source_row": { "action": "dividend", "date": "2020-05-14", "name": "INNOVATE CORP", "ticker": "VATE", "value": 38.9 }, "status": "READY_FOR_VERSIONED_DATA_REPAIR_NO_AMOUNT_IMPUTATION" }, "sharadar_dividend_basis_resolution": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This authorizes a new physical data version for validation only. The adjustment-basis interpretation is an issuer-anchored inference because public ACTIONS documentation does not state the basis explicitly. No replay, trial, sleeve, or performance claim is authorized until every post-build gate passes.", "content_hash": "sha256:48fcfde04e3c7f7d28bc349c93b55911f97514317e74bac67fca80980b621e47", "decision": "VERSIONED_DIVIDEND_BASIS_REPAIR_AUTHORIZED_FOR_DATA_VALIDATION", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "hdb_resolution_content_hash": "sha256:c30b02bf34aa40b2974c5b1c3623363a601e826b866c335714c8b5b909247775", "hdb_resolution_sha256": "3a88d804448b6316e548e226fe05a1d58e70de14b1cf2a927a800873e3ca7e6e", "raw_actions_archive_sha256": "166d6ae17921b6a3a1f13a734e43bfd32ca5d9e88398030290a5246c89d7185c", "split_basis_audit_content_hash": "sha256:cb32298cec76a2a4713dd8e3a892dc5c1aca03a684f951c9d7fbf59e3048b894", "split_basis_audit_sha256": "6ab87e87f8c0f31c680324c818a9c3fea4b113c90a011447996150c0719a9f04", "vate_resolution_content_hash": "sha256:5db7f46a0b1c66f7052a65178632f1244a6cec926fdfc45eaae684456147ca11", "vate_resolution_sha256": "d5123b165ca035b385596abae1a076ad6e452667f4f9ace68c3602585d451d0b" }, "mandatory_post_build_gates": { "all_executable_splits_pass_price_boundary_sanity": true, "all_non_corporate_action_files_byte_identical_or_hardlinked": true, "all_positive_dividends_at_or_below_pre_ex_raw_close": true, "exact_hdb_and_vate_rows_absent": true, "no_other_source_rows_dropped": true, "replay_permitted_before_all_gates_pass": false }, "ordinary_event_anchor": { "candidate_raw_dividend": 0.82, "exact_equality": true, "finding": "Sharadar's pre-split dividend value is expressed on the later split-adjusted basis. Multiplying by the same-ticker market split restores the issuer-declared cash amount exactly.", "issuer_declared_raw_dividend": 0.82, "later_market_split_ratio": 4.0, "source_dividend_value": 0.205, "source_rows": [ { "action": "dividend", "date": "2020-05-08", "name": "APPLE INC", "ticker": "AAPL", "value": 0.205 }, { "action": "split", "date": "2020-08-31", "name": "APPLE INC", "ticker": "AAPL", "value": 4.0 } ], "ticker": "AAPL" }, "repair_contract": { "adrratiosplit_is_second_position_mutation": false, "amount_imputation_permitted": false, "dividend_formula": "raw_cash_amount = source_value * product(value of every same-ticker raw action='split' with date >= dividend date)", "formula_scope": "every finite positive dividend in the frozen ACTIONS archive", "hdb_2025_06_26_zero_marker_action": "QUARANTINE_EXACT_ROW", "market_split_source_action": "split", "new_physical_version_required": true, "original_archive_or_lake_mutation_permitted": false, "vate_2020_05_14_unsupported_dividend_action": "QUARANTINE_EXACT_ROW" }, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T02:13:39.333793+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-sharadar-dividend-basis-resolution.v1", "sources": { "apple_dividend_history": { "retrieved_sha256": "ac6e63b5bd905abba9246fde7ce7375a4329bbc775293de0bcd7054b76ddb1a0", "url": "https://investor.apple.com/dividend-history/default.aspx" }, "apple_sec_filing": { "retrieved_sha256": "244dc76e2fee2351e4166deda8fe753269b6dcb882bc94f18cf396f124651a43", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/000032019320000050/a8-kexhibit991q2202032.htm" }, "sharadar_actions_documentation": { "limitation": "Public documentation labels value numeric without basis semantics.", "retrieved_sha256": "a83e505428c29169114e92f43d51df10bafac594c2ba610ee03f21755e44a6af", "url": "https://sharadar.com/docs/actions" }, "sharadar_stock_price_documentation": { "retrieved_sha256": "090de110236a75d3ba82b5814a5aee7979b4b47122ac6b379e0fecf17f71989b", "url": "https://sharadar.com/docs/stocks" } }, "status": "REPAIR_CONTRACT_SEALED_REPLAY_NOT_AUTHORIZED", "systemic_evidence": { "reconciled_fraction": 0.9976303317535545, "residual_rows_with_exact_quarantine_authority": 1, "rows_reconciled_by_the_same_formula": 421, "source_offending_rows": 422 } }, "sharadar_corporate_action_corrected_lake": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "base_lake": "data/lake_sharadar", "claim_boundary": "This proves only that a new physical data version was materialized under the sealed source transformation contract. It opens no returns, spends no hypothesis, and does not authorize a replay, validate a strategy, or improve any performance statistic.", "content_hash": "sha256:178c4564f9c5e0b917db752879c08a2f25c3133e614f92f0ecec6af3c33ef1c0", "corrected_lake": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar", "decision": "VERSIONED_CORPORATE_ACTION_LAKE_BUILT_VALIDATION_PENDING", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "invariants": { "all_base_rows_have_raw_lineage": true, "amounts_imputed": false, "apple_2020_05_08_cash_amount_is_0_82": true, "hdb_zero_and_vate_unsupported_rows_absent": true, "logical_preregistration_path_preserved": true, "non_action_datasets_hardlinked": true, "original_lake_preserved_by_hash": true, "physical_version_is_content_addressed": true }, "lineage": { "authority_content_hash": "sha256:48fcfde04e3c7f7d28bc349c93b55911f97514317e74bac67fca80980b621e47", "authority_path": "artifacts/audit/sharadar_dividend_basis_resolution.json", "authority_sha256": "sha256:110378773151de3c8a095c134c91016fcd9de71670c218e0bb4857debe7939f2", "base_corporate_action_bytes": 171208720, "base_corporate_action_files": 48833, "base_corporate_actions_root": "sha256:9a8db6616e8f0078c86e179e38161b9a57fce96da9d3d1e58a0470ddf72e0bb2", "corrected_corporate_action_bytes": 295549779, "corrected_corporate_action_files": 48765, "corrected_corporate_actions_root": "sha256:d07802568921649fddba5c0a847ef1d0db8a23dcd4f3e65b57a04310173a6e5d", "hardlinked_immutable_datasets": [ "fundamentals", "ohlcv_1d", "universe_membership" ], "raw_actions_archive": "data/sharadar_raw/ACTIONS.zip", "raw_actions_archive_sha256": "sha256:166d6ae17921b6a3a1f13a734e43bfd32ca5d9e88398030290a5246c89d7185c" }, "normalization": { "adrratiosplit_metadata_rows_removed_from_execution": 142, "base_rows": 171924, "dividend_amounts_changed": 31807, "dividend_rows_normalized": 167118, "exact_source_rows_quarantined": 2, "market_split_rows_preserved": 4662, "normalized_rows": 171780 }, "preregistration_logical_suffix": "data/lake_sharadar", "required_next_action": "Run full-lake dividend-price and split-price boundary audits. Do not replay or promote this lake unless both pass and a separate validation receipt authorizes it.", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-sharadar-corporate-action-corrected-lake.v1" }, "sharadar_corrected_corporate_action_validation": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "The dividend normalization passes globally, but the lake fails the independent split gate. This artifact opens no returns, spends no hypothesis, and explicitly forbids using the lake for a replay or performance claim.", "content_hash": "sha256:6ed09e42b6e6a744df4dfb3c9bbd927b58ac70a813c9c819a1592daa8afae583", "decision": "CORPORATE_ACTION_VALIDATION_FAILED_SPLIT_BOUNDARIES", "dividend_gate": { "decision": "DIVIDEND_PRICE_CONSISTENCY_PASSED", "passed": true, "summary": { "affected_instruments": 0, "dividend_rows": 167118, "maximum_pre_close_multiple": 0.9836065573770493, "rows_above_full_pre_ex_close": 0, "rows_above_half_pre_ex_close": 64, "rows_without_pre_ex_close": 259 } }, "evidence_date": "2026-08-23", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lake": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar", "lineage": { "build_content_hash": "sha256:178c4564f9c5e0b917db752879c08a2f25c3133e614f92f0ecec6af3c33ef1c0", "build_path": "artifacts/audit/sharadar_corporate_action_corrected_lake.json", "build_sha256": "2ff4354d2f569b182901ae1a079270e78438c8fd1e7c35b115e79dd0bc65306a", "corrected_corporate_actions_root": "sha256:d07802568921649fddba5c0a847ef1d0db8a23dcd4f3e65b57a04310173a6e5d", "engine_split_tolerance": 0.3, "engine_split_tolerance_source": "src/alphaforge/backtest/engine.py" }, "required_next_action": "Resolve reciprocal and unexplained split groups with independent source evidence. Prove missing-boundary events cannot become exposed or quarantine their instruments. Do not replay on this lake while the split gate fails.", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-sharadar-corrected-corporate-action-validation.v1", "split_gate": { "failures": [ { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2005-06-29 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AAWWUSD", "post_open": 30.0, "post_open_ts": "2005-11-09 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 0.1 }, { "classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2006-04-01 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AAWWUSD", "post_open": 47.1, "post_open_ts": "2006-04-03 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": 47.1, "pre_close_ts": "2006-03-31 04:00:00+04:00", "reciprocal_log_error": 1.791759469228055, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": 1.791759469228055, "stored_ratio": 6.0 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2023-09-11 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABATUSD", "post_open": 11.8, "post_open_ts": "2023-09-21 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 0.06667 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2001-04-04 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABBNYUSD", "post_open": 17.0, "post_open_ts": "2001-04-06 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 4.0 }, { "classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2005-06-09 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABEVUSD", "post_open": 21.5, "post_open_ts": "2005-06-09 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": 42.0, "pre_close_ts": "2005-06-08 04:00:00+04:00", "reciprocal_log_error": 0.8519382399437059, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": 0.4872951263557967, "stored_ratio": 1.2 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "1998-04-28 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABIZQUSD", "post_open": 20.0, "post_open_ts": "1998-05-05 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 3.25 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2011-05-19 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACHCUSD", "post_open": 10.0, "post_open_ts": "2011-11-01 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 100000.0 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2011-11-01 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACHCUSD", "post_open": 10.0, "post_open_ts": "2011-11-01 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 1.7633 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2020-06-18 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACIUSD", "post_open": 15.5, "post_open_ts": "2020-06-26 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 2.072 }, { "classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2009-05-26 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACLIUSD", "post_open": 11.0, "post_open_ts": "2009-05-26 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": 3.93, "pre_close_ts": "2009-05-22 04:00:00+04:00", "reciprocal_log_error": 2.415550208037091, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": 0.35703851420268995, "stored_ratio": 0.25 }, { "classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2004-08-30 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACLUSD", "post_open": 76.0, "post_open_ts": "2004-08-30 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": 75.86, "pre_close_ts": "2004-08-27 04:00:00+04:00", "reciprocal_log_error": 2.3044288970196236, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": 2.3007412889684673, "stored_ratio": 0.1 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2016-10-04 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADSWUSD", "post_open": 20.5, "post_open_ts": "2016-10-06 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 64615.0 }, { "classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2022-09-14 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADTXUSD", "post_open": 27.39000000000006, "post_open_ts": "2022-09-14 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": 0.37, "pre_close_ts": "2022-09-13 04:00:00+04:00", "reciprocal_log_error": 8.216453262047002, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": 0.3924072511907099, "stored_ratio": 0.02 }, { "classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2022-06-06 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADXSUSD", "post_open": 1.02, "post_open_ts": "2022-06-06 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": 0.062, "pre_close_ts": "2022-06-03 04:00:00+04:00", "reciprocal_log_error": 7.182450155907107, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": 1.5816031134406563, "stored_ratio": 0.0125 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2025-08-25 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AEROUSD", "post_open": 19.16, "post_open_ts": "2025-11-06 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 10.0 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2014-09-02 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AFMDQUSD", "post_open": 6.95, "post_open_ts": "2014-09-12 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 31.0 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2014-09-11 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AFMDQUSD", "post_open": 6.95, "post_open_ts": "2014-09-12 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 7.54 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2000-12-12 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AFSIUSD", "post_open": 7.7096794468887495, "post_open_ts": "2006-11-28 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 2.0 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2019-07-18 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AFYAUSD", "post_open": 23.5, "post_open_ts": "2019-07-19 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 28.0 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2014-03-04 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AGTCUSD", "post_open": 12.75, "post_open_ts": "2014-03-27 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 35.0 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2022-11-15 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AHRUSD", "post_open": 12.85, "post_open_ts": "2024-02-07 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 0.25 }, { "classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2025-05-21 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AIFUUSD", "post_open": 1.5, "post_open_ts": "2025-05-21 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": 0.172, "pre_close_ts": "2025-05-20 04:00:00+04:00", "reciprocal_log_error": 5.161458183830839, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": 0.8300063632771424, "stored_ratio": 0.05 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2025-05-07 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AIIUSD", "post_open": 18.5, "post_open_ts": "2025-05-08 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 105.0 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2001-07-06 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AIQ1USD", "post_open": 13.01, "post_open_ts": "2001-07-31 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 10.0 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2004-02-04 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AIZUSD", "post_open": 23.75, "post_open_ts": "2004-02-05 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, 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"XUSE:CASH:WOKUSD", "post_open": 5.4, "post_open_ts": "2025-12-29 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": 0.028, "pre_close_ts": "2025-12-26 04:00:00+04:00", "reciprocal_log_error": 9.867119908365254, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": 0.6567795363890705, "stored_ratio": 0.01 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2004-08-26 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WOOFUSD", "post_open": 26.0, "post_open_ts": "2021-01-14 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 2.0 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2025-10-22 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WSHPUSD", "post_open": 20.02, "post_open_ts": "2025-11-14 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 0.25 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2004-05-27 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WSRUSD", "post_open": 12.0, "post_open_ts": "2010-08-26 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 1.4 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2010-08-24 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WSRUSD", "post_open": 12.0, "post_open_ts": "2010-08-26 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 0.33333 }, { "classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "ex_date": "2015-12-30 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WTERUSD", "post_open": 5.500032654838359, "post_open_ts": "2018-12-11 04:00:00+04:00", "pre_close": null, "pre_close_ts": null, "reciprocal_log_error": null, "source_rows": 1, "stored_log_error": null, "stored_ratio": 0.02 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"unexplained_price_boundary": 109 }, "tolerance_absolute_log_error": 0.3 } }, "polygon_split_crosscheck": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This GET-only cross-check measures external corporate-action agreement. It does not mutate a lake, open returns, spend a hypothesis, authorize a replay, or validate performance.", "content_hash": "sha256:b401c5260988ba900d0acac857bfeda28a3cb353d6a18db3b9ef55890dc67a32", "crosschecks": [ { "aliases_checked": [ "AAWW" ], "classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "ex_date": "2005-06-29 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AAWWUSD", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_ratios": [], "provider_rows": [], "stored_ratio": 0.1 }, { "aliases_checked": [ "AAWW" ], "classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "ex_date": "2006-04-01 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AAWWUSD", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_ratios": [], "provider_rows": [], "stored_ratio": 6.0 }, { "aliases_checked": [ "ABAT", "ABML", "ORRP" ], "classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2023-09-11 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABATUSD", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_ratios": [ 0.06666666666666667 ], "provider_rows": [ { "execution_date": "2023-09-11", "id": "Eefdacc75a25193cb267142914cfa35b62f6aeb8b284d4785829a6e883b06f6d4", "split_from": 15, "split_to": 1, "ticker": "ABML" } ], "stored_ratio": 0.06667 }, { "aliases_checked": [ "ABB", "ABBNY" ], "classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "ex_date": "2001-04-04 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABBNYUSD", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_ratios": [], "provider_rows": [], "stored_ratio": 4.0 }, { "aliases_checked": [ "ABEV", "ABV.C" ], "classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "ex_date": "2005-06-09 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABEVUSD", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_ratios": [], "provider_rows": [], "stored_ratio": 1.2 }, { "aliases_checked": [ "ABIZA", "ABIZQ" ], "classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "ex_date": "1998-04-28 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABIZQUSD", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_ratios": [], "provider_rows": [], "stored_ratio": 3.25 }, { "aliases_checked": [ "ACHC" ], "classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "ex_date": "2011-05-19 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACHCUSD", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_ratios": [], "provider_rows": [], "stored_ratio": 100000.0 }, { "aliases_checked": [ "ACHC" ], "classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_EVENT_CONFLICT", "ex_date": "2011-11-01 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACHCUSD", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_ratios": [ 0.25 ], "provider_rows": [ { "execution_date": "2011-11-01", "id": "P0a2d472b0aae762d046913aaa7e434580e91a88c5d64da02d4e58475db6d4eae", "split_from": 4, "split_to": 1, "ticker": "ACHC" } ], "stored_ratio": 1.7633 }, { "aliases_checked": [ "ACI" ], "classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "ex_date": "2020-06-18 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACIUSD", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_ratios": [], "provider_rows": [], "stored_ratio": 2.072 }, { "aliases_checked": [ "ACLI", "ACOM" ], "classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2009-05-26 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACLIUSD", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_ratios": [ 0.25 ], "provider_rows": [ { "execution_date": "2009-05-26", "id": "E10f992fa79cf90ce03396c9b3bbbd7bd2c5a4cb4f11a12da8a2e691f88a7d375", "split_from": 4, "split_to": 1, "ticker": "ACLI" } ], "stored_ratio": 0.25 }, { "aliases_checked": [ "ACL" ], "classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "ex_date": "2004-08-30 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACLUSD", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_ratios": [], "provider_rows": [], 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], "provider_rows": [ { "execution_date": "2010-11-30", "id": "Ef0b2dbb89f896360561c264f544ec62274c29b67829e61d27cf4206eb9741d91", "split_from": 1, "split_to": 2.782, "ticker": "XXII" } ], "stored_ratio": 2.782 }, { "aliases_checked": [ "YSS" ], "classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "ex_date": "2025-10-03 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:YSSUSD", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_ratios": [], "provider_rows": [], "stored_ratio": 0.08818 }, { "aliases_checked": [ "ZENA" ], "classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "ex_date": "2024-07-01 04:00:00+04:00", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ZENAUSD", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_ratios": [], "provider_rows": [], "stored_ratio": 0.16667 } ], "decision": "INDEPENDENT_SPLIT_CROSSCHECK_COMPLETE_LOCAL_GATE_REMAINS_CLOSED", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "local_validation_content_hash": "sha256:6ed09e42b6e6a744df4dfb3c9bbd927b58ac70a813c9c819a1592daa8afae583", "local_validation_path": "artifacts/audit/sharadar_corrected_corporate_action_validation.json", "local_validation_sha256": "74d91878d38321e344982ef1104ca918d354f18210d6edde946e61673cf9266b", "ticker_alias_archive": "data/sharadar_raw/TICKERS.zip", "ticker_alias_archive_sha256": "8f3e03012dd25d0a2fb3950e39d81f1ddff106391cd20eb9e547cd53f92525f5" }, "required_next_action": "Use independently confirmed reciprocal rows as candidates for an explicit versioned repair. Independently confirmed stored ratios still require lifecycle/date analysis when the local price boundary disagrees. Keep unmatched and conflicting events closed.", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T02:57:49.881741+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-polygon-split-crosscheck.v1", "source": { "credentials_published": false, "endpoint": "https://api.polygon.io/v3/reference/splits", "pages": 29, "provider": "Polygon.io Reference Splits API", "provider_rows": 28079, "provider_snapshot_sha256": "011b5a1f1d998b25f37a5d7d7803582a9ec514acb0acd08e09db092f331372f9", "query": { "execution_date.gte": "1997-12-31", "execution_date.lte": "2026-08-23", "order": "asc", "sort": "execution_date" } }, "summary": { "independent_provider_confirms_reciprocal_ratio": 1, "independent_provider_confirms_stored_ratio": 114, "independent_provider_event_conflict": 2, "local_failed_or_unverifiable_events": 473, "no_independent_provider_match": 356 } }, "split_exception_issuer_resolution": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "Issuer evidence resolves only these named exceptions. It does not authorize a strategy replay, alter a historical result, or validate performance.", "content_hash": "sha256:29178f88644be6ca80e328ba1305e35acbe0da7979b0cb4ba0b7e89b561fad59", "decision": "ISSUER_EXCEPTIONS_RESOLVED_AS_NONEXECUTABLE_LIFECYCLE_METADATA", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "lifecycle_content_hash": "sha256:deed344bd2823f820e326b69f510f704a11b3ba3d2621100594da2600f78cb2d", "lifecycle_path": "artifacts/audit/sharadar_split_lifecycle_scope.json", "lifecycle_sha256": "017f1723f1937900bc2e40aa1f54f0187286ffda794e4cddcf11159ce82031bf", "provider_crosscheck_content_hash": "sha256:b401c5260988ba900d0acac857bfeda28a3cb353d6a18db3b9ef55890dc67a32", "provider_crosscheck_path": "artifacts/audit/polygon_split_crosscheck.json", "provider_crosscheck_sha256": "5c00be6dee175309d3511f1d183906824f651847e7561df722a03fad5a3e0fb8" }, "required_next_action": "Implement and test fail-closed lifecycle scoping: source rows outside possible pre-existing exposure remain in lineage but are not executable share mutations. Do not infer a general provider precedence rule from these three cases.", "resolutions": [ { "event_date": "2021-04-27", "executable_action": false, "first_price_date": "2025-06-05", "issuer_ratio": 0.005, "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "provider_ratio": 200.0, "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "required_fragments_verified": [ "net 1 for 200 reverse-split", "effective as of April 27, 2021" ], "resolution": "ISSUER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO_PROVIDER_DIRECTION_REJECTED", "retrieved_sha256": "b82239a75e14bc7134831d3b85e2fa9cad43a20052e83c561e65ad251ca6c5ed", "source_row_deleted": false, "stored_ratio": 0.005, "ticker": "BMNR", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1829311/000168316822005159/bitmine_s1.htm" }, { "event_date": "2011-11-01", "executable_action": false, "first_price_date": "2011-11-01", "issuer_ratio": 0.25, "lifecycle_classification": "FIRST_PRICE_BOUNDARY_NO_PREEXISTING_EXPOSURE", "provider_ratio": 0.25, "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "required_fragments_verified": [ "one-to-four conversion rate", "November 1, 2011" ], "resolution": "STORED_ROW_IS_NOT_ISSUER_MARKET_CONVERSION_KEEP_NONEXECUTABLE", "retrieved_sha256": "03f962c1dc7cba35dc89c915e3c757c08215956dceed9027e4d7772f25366e9d", "source_row_deleted": false, "stored_ratio": 1.7633, "ticker": "ACHC", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1520697/000119312511340742/d258032ds1a.htm" }, { "event_date": "2017-05-30", "executable_action": false, "first_price_date": "2017-05-30", "issuer_ratio": 0.1, "lifecycle_classification": "FIRST_PRICE_BOUNDARY_NO_PREEXISTING_EXPOSURE", "provider_ratio": 0.1, "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "required_fragments_verified": [ "10-to-1 share consolidation", "took effect on May 30, 2017" ], "resolution": "STORED_ROW_IS_NOT_ISSUER_MARKET_CONSOLIDATION_KEEP_NONEXECUTABLE", "retrieved_sha256": "9f8d7645bd5d3dedaabb0d8049edd5dedeb1053bbf164ad61ab29291b7323b6e", "source_row_deleted": false, "stored_ratio": 0.5, "ticker": "JHG", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274173/000110465917050025/a17-14663_110q.htm" } ], "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T03:04:13.219498+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-split-exception-issuer-resolution.v1" }, "sharadar_split_lifecycle_scope": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "Lifecycle classification does not delete source events or authorize ratio repair. It opens no returns, spends no hypothesis, and does not authorize replay or performance claims.", "content_hash": "sha256:deed344bd2823f820e326b69f510f704a11b3ba3d2621100594da2600f78cb2d", "decision": "SPLIT_LIFECYCLE_SCOPE_AUDITED_REPLAY_GATE_REMAINS_CLOSED", "events": [ { "ex_date": "2005-06-29 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2005-11-09", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AAWWUSD", "last_price_date": "2023-03-17", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.1, "ticker": "AAWW" }, { "ex_date": "2006-04-01 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2005-11-09", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AAWWUSD", "last_price_date": "2023-03-17", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 6.0, "ticker": "AAWW" }, { "ex_date": "2023-09-11 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2023-09-21", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABATUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "stored_ratio": 0.06667, "ticker": "ABAT" }, { "ex_date": "2001-04-04 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2001-04-06", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABBNYUSD", "last_price_date": "2023-05-22", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 4.0, "ticker": "ABBNY" }, { "ex_date": "2005-06-09 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1997-03-05", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABEVUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 1.2, "ticker": "ABEV" }, { "ex_date": "1998-04-28 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1998-05-05", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABIZQUSD", "last_price_date": "2002-04-04", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 3.25, "ticker": "ABIZQ" }, { "ex_date": "2011-05-19 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2011-11-01", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACHCUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 100000.0, "ticker": "ACHC" }, { "ex_date": "2011-11-01 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2011-11-01", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACHCUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "FIRST_PRICE_BOUNDARY_NO_PREEXISTING_EXPOSURE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_EVENT_CONFLICT", "stored_ratio": 1.7633, "ticker": "ACHC" }, { "ex_date": "2020-06-18 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2020-06-26", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACIUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 2.072, "ticker": "ACI" }, { "ex_date": "2009-05-26 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2005-10-07", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACLIUSD", "last_price_date": "2010-12-21", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "stored_ratio": 0.25, "ticker": "ACLI" }, { "ex_date": "2004-08-30 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2002-03-21", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACLUSD", "last_price_date": "2011-04-08", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.1, "ticker": "ACL" }, { "ex_date": "2016-10-04 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2016-10-06", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADSWUSD", "last_price_date": "2020-10-29", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 64615.0, "ticker": "ADSW" }, { "ex_date": "2022-09-14 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2020-06-30", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADTXUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "stored_ratio": 0.02, "ticker": "ADTX" }, { "ex_date": "2022-06-06 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2005-07-28", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADXSUSD", "last_price_date": "2022-06-06", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "stored_ratio": 0.0125, "ticker": "ADXS" }, { "ex_date": "2025-08-25 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2025-11-06", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AEROUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 10.0, "ticker": "AERO" }, { "ex_date": "2014-09-02 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2014-09-12", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AFMDQUSD", "last_price_date": "2025-05-19", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 31.0, "ticker": "AFMDQ" }, { "ex_date": "2014-09-11 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2014-09-12", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AFMDQUSD", "last_price_date": "2025-05-19", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 7.54, "ticker": "AFMDQ" }, { "ex_date": "2000-12-12 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2006-11-28", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AFSIUSD", "last_price_date": "2018-11-29", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "AFSI" }, { "ex_date": "2019-07-18 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2019-07-19", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AFYAUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 28.0, "ticker": "AFYA" }, { "ex_date": "2014-03-04 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2014-03-27", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AGTCUSD", "last_price_date": "2022-11-30", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 35.0, "ticker": "AGTC" }, { "ex_date": "2022-11-15 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2024-02-07", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AHRUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.25, "ticker": "AHR" }, { "ex_date": "2025-05-21 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2007-11-01", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AIFUUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "stored_ratio": 0.05, "ticker": "AIFU" }, { "ex_date": "2025-05-07 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2025-05-08", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AIIUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 105.0, "ticker": "AII" }, { "ex_date": "2001-07-06 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2001-07-31", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AIQ1USD", "last_price_date": "2017-08-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 10.0, "ticker": "AIQ1" }, { "ex_date": "2004-02-04 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2004-02-05", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AIZUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 13.159, "ticker": "AIZ" }, { "ex_date": "2021-03-24 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2021-03-26", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ALHCUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": 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"first_price_date": "2024-06-28", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ALMSUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.2139, "ticker": "ALMS" }, { "ex_date": "2013-12-17 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2013-12-18", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AMCUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 49.514, "ticker": "AMC" }, { "ex_date": "2022-11-22 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2010-03-31", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AMPEUSD", "last_price_date": "2024-04-12", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", 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"ex_date": "1999-03-25 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1999-04-22", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:TUESQUSD", "last_price_date": "2021-01-04", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 7.0, "ticker": "TUESQ" }, { "ex_date": "2021-09-14 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2021-09-15", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:TWKSUSD", "last_price_date": "2024-11-12", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 43.6, "ticker": "TWKS" }, { "ex_date": "2009-03-30 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1992-03-19", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:TWXUSD", "last_price_date": "2018-06-15", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": 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04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2001-11-16", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VASUSD", "last_price_date": "2007-06-28", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 8657.0, "ticker": "VAS" }, { "ex_date": "2021-01-29 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2021-02-05", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VORUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 13.6, "ticker": "VOR" }, { "ex_date": "2009-09-10 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2009-10-07", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VRSKUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 50.0, "ticker": "VRSK" }, { "ex_date": "2013-02-06 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2015-01-28", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VUZIUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "stored_ratio": 0.01333, "ticker": "VUZI" }, { "ex_date": "2024-05-15 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2024-06-07", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WAYUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.605, "ticker": "WAY" }, { "ex_date": "2024-06-25 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2024-06-27", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WBTNUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 30.0, "ticker": "WBTN" }, { "ex_date": "1999-05-11 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1999-05-12", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WCCUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 57.8, "ticker": "WCC" }, { "ex_date": "2002-02-07 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2002-03-13", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WCIMQUSD", "last_price_date": "2009-09-03", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 1.43408, "ticker": "WCIMQ" }, { "ex_date": "2001-11-15 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2001-11-15", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WGHTQUSD", "last_price_date": "2025-05-15", "lifecycle_classification": "FIRST_PRICE_BOUNDARY_NO_PREEXISTING_EXPOSURE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 4.70536, "ticker": "WGHTQ" }, { "ex_date": "2010-06-01 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2016-01-04", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WKHSUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 14.0, "ticker": "WKHS" }, { "ex_date": "2015-12-11 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2016-01-04", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WKHSUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "stored_ratio": 0.1, "ticker": "WKHS" }, { "ex_date": "2013-05-16 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2013-05-17", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WLHUSD", "last_price_date": "2020-02-05", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "stored_ratio": 0.12121, "ticker": "WLH" }, { "ex_date": "2005-09-12 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2005-09-20", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WLSCUSD", "last_price_date": "2007-10-30", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 3.803, "ticker": "WLSC" }, { "ex_date": "2020-02-28 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2020-06-03", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WMGUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 477242.61467, "ticker": "WMG" }, { "ex_date": "2025-12-29 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2024-08-23", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WOKUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "stored_ratio": 0.01, "ticker": "WOK" }, { "ex_date": "2004-08-26 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2021-01-14", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WOOFUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "WOOF" }, { "ex_date": "2025-10-22 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2025-11-14", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WSHPUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.25, "ticker": "WSHP" }, { "ex_date": "2004-05-27 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2010-08-26", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WSRUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 1.4, "ticker": "WSR" }, { "ex_date": "2010-08-24 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2010-08-26", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WSRUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.33333, "ticker": "WSR" }, { "ex_date": "2015-12-30 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2018-12-11", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WTERUSD", "last_price_date": "2024-02-05", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "stored_ratio": 0.02, "ticker": "WTER" }, { "ex_date": "2017-01-09 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2019-05-08", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:XAIRUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.01, "ticker": "XAIR" }, { "ex_date": "2001-03-21 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1986-05-07", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:XCEDQUSD", "last_price_date": "2001-04-30", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.1, "ticker": "XCEDQ" }, { "ex_date": "2010-11-30 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2014-03-11", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:XXIIUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "stored_ratio": 2.782, "ticker": "XXII" }, { "ex_date": "2025-10-03 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2026-01-29", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:YSSUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.08818, "ticker": "YSS" }, { "ex_date": "2024-07-01 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2024-10-01", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ZENAUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.16667, "ticker": "ZENA" } ], "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "provider_crosscheck_content_hash": "sha256:b401c5260988ba900d0acac857bfeda28a3cb353d6a18db3b9ef55890dc67a32", "provider_crosscheck_path": "artifacts/audit/polygon_split_crosscheck.json", "provider_crosscheck_sha256": "5c00be6dee175309d3511f1d183906824f651847e7561df722a03fad5a3e0fb8", "ticker_archive_path": "data/sharadar_raw/TICKERS.zip", "ticker_archive_sha256": "8f3e03012dd25d0a2fb3950e39d81f1ddff106391cd20eb9e547cd53f92525f5", "validation_content_hash": "sha256:6ed09e42b6e6a744df4dfb3c9bbd927b58ac70a813c9c819a1592daa8afae583", "validation_path": "artifacts/audit/sharadar_corrected_corporate_action_validation.json", "validation_sha256": "74d91878d38321e344982ef1104ca918d354f18210d6edde946e61673cf9266b" }, "required_next_action": "Seal and test a rule that excludes pre-first-price, first-price-boundary, and post-last-price metadata from executable split transformations only when exposure and queued orders are impossible. Continue issuer resolution for every event inside the market-price lifecycle.", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-sharadar-split-lifecycle-scope-audit.v1", "summary": { "after_last_price_non_executable": 5, "before_first_price_non_executable": 332, "failed_or_unverifiable_events": 473, "first_price_boundary_no_preexisting_exposure": 23, "no_frozen_ticker_lifecycle": 1, "within_price_lifecycle_requires_resolution": 112 } }, "unresolved_split_event_context": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "Nearby context is descriptive evidence, not causal proof. No source row is deleted, no ratio is changed, and no replay or performance claim is authorized.", "content_hash": "sha256:c81c35a83c706cec7a8b4e4c9f22d1f0c874c26fe42c8a92ebdc0bc75c7b4d3f", "decision": "UNRESOLVED_SPLIT_CONTEXT_AUDITED_NO_REPAIR_AUTHORIZED", "events": [ { "context_classification": "WEEKEND_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2006-04-01 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2005-11-09", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AAWWUSD", "last_price_date": "2023-03-17", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 6.0, "ticker": "AAWW" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2005-06-09 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1997-03-05", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABEVUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 1.2, "ticker": "ABEV" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2004-08-30 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2002-03-21", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACLUSD", "last_price_date": "2011-04-08", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.1, "ticker": "ACL" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2000-03-15 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1999-01-22", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ALLR1USD", "last_price_date": "2001-03-20", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "ALLR1" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2022-11-22 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2010-03-31", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AMPEUSD", "last_price_date": "2024-04-12", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.06667, "ticker": "AMPE" }, { "context_classification": "NEARBY_SPINOFF_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "1997-12-31 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1991-11-14", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ATNIUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [ { "action": "spinoffdividend", "contraticker": "ECM", "date": "1997-12-31", "ticker": "ATNI", "value": 8.0 } ], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.4, "ticker": "ATNI" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2000-11-10 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": null, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AZAAUSD", "last_price_date": null, "lifecycle_classification": "NO_FROZEN_TICKER_LIFECYCLE", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "AZAA" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "1998-04-08 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1993-05-17", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AZNUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "RECIPROCAL_RATIO_WOULD_VERIFY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.33333, "ticker": "AZN" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2016-12-27 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "2005-12-09", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:BASXQUSD", "last_price_date": "2021-08-27", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.00175, "ticker": "BASXQ" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "1998-09-02 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1986-01-01", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:BNIUSD", "last_price_date": "2010-02-12", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 3.0, "ticker": "BNI" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2001-07-02 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1998-06-17", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:BYNDQUSD", "last_price_date": "2002-01-24", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.06667, "ticker": "BYNDQ" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "1998-03-03 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1993-03-26", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CBUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 3.0, "ticker": "CB" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "1998-04-15 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1991-08-13", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CCILUSD", "last_price_date": "1999-03-25", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 1.5, "ticker": "CCIL" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2003-07-15 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1993-02-19", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CDRUSD", "last_price_date": "2022-08-19", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", 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"XUSE:CASH:SBRAUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [ { "action": "spinoff", "contraticker": "SUNH", "date": "2010-11-16", "ticker": "SBRA", "value": 5.0 }, { "action": "spinoffdividend", "contraticker": "SUNH", "date": "2010-11-16", "ticker": "SBRA", "value": 60.0 } ], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.33333, "ticker": "SBRA" }, { "context_classification": "NEARBY_SPINOFF_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "1998-03-23 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1993-10-12", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:SDH1USD", "last_price_date": "2001-06-20", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "RECIPROCAL_RATIO_WOULD_VERIFY", "nearby_action_context": [ { "action": "spinoff", "contraticker": "MAR", "date": "1998-03-23", "ticker": "SDH1", "value": 8.0 }, { "action": "spinoffdividend", "contraticker": "MAR", "date": "1998-03-23", "ticker": "SDH1", "value": 288.0 } ], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.25, "ticker": "SDH1" }, { "context_classification": "NEARBY_SPINOFF_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2002-11-19 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1986-01-01", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:T1USD", "last_price_date": "2005-11-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [ { "action": "spinoff", "contraticker": "CMCSA", "date": "2002-11-19", "ticker": "T1", "value": 1.6175 }, { "action": "spinoffdividend", "contraticker": "CMCSA", "date": "2002-11-19", "ticker": "T1", "value": 42.42703 } ], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.2, "ticker": "T1" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2017-08-01 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1987-12-30", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:TDWUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.031, "ticker": "TDW" }, { "context_classification": "NEARBY_SPINOFF_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2007-07-02 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1987-09-28", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:TYCUSD", "last_price_date": "2016-09-02", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [ { "action": "spinoff", "contraticker": "TEL", "date": "2007-07-02", "ticker": "TYC", "value": 1.0 }, { "action": "spinoff", "contraticker": "COV", "date": "2007-07-02", "ticker": "TYC", "value": 1.0 }, { "action": "spinoffdividend", "contraticker": "TEL", "date": "2007-07-02", "ticker": "TYC", "value": 42.53 }, { "action": "spinoffdividend", "contraticker": "COV", "date": "2007-07-02", "ticker": "TYC", "value": 46.0 } ], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.25, "ticker": "TYC" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "1999-04-16 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1986-01-01", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:USBUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 3.0, "ticker": "USB" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2000-10-03 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1993-12-08", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:UTI1USD", "last_price_date": "2001-05-08", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "UTI1" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2001-03-21 04:00:00+04:00", "first_price_date": "1986-05-07", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:XCEDQUSD", "last_price_date": "2001-04-30", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "nearby_action_context": [], "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "stored_ratio": 0.1, "ticker": "XCEDQ" } ], "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "actions_archive_path": "data/sharadar_raw/ACTIONS.zip", "actions_archive_sha256": "166d6ae17921b6a3a1f13a734e43bfd32ca5d9e88398030290a5246c89d7185c", "lifecycle_content_hash": "sha256:deed344bd2823f820e326b69f510f704a11b3ba3d2621100594da2600f78cb2d", "lifecycle_path": "artifacts/audit/sharadar_split_lifecycle_scope.json", "lifecycle_sha256": "017f1723f1937900bc2e40aa1f54f0187286ffda794e4cddcf11159ce82031bf" }, "required_next_action": "Prioritize issuer evidence for plain and weekend split rows. Treat merger, listing, spin-off, and ADR-context rows as lifecycle-semantics candidates, not automatic ratio repairs.", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-unresolved-split-event-context-audit.v1", "summary": { "events": 59, "nearby_acquisition_or_merger_context": 1, "nearby_adr_ratio_context": 0, "nearby_spinoff_context": 8, "plain_without_lifecycle_context": 49, "same_day_listing_or_delisting_context": 0, "weekend_without_lifecycle_context": 1 } }, "operating_margin_split_exposure": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This reads only sealed order and position artifacts, not equity or return series. It does not authorize replay, establish counterfactual exposure, or validate performance.", "content_hash": "sha256:c9d379d6a7bd9a7991f561e84162ba1f8c78715b32d540b7b56b6d179eaf6dfd", "decision": "SEALED_PATH_SPLIT_EXPOSURE_AUDITED_REPLAY_NOT_AUTHORIZED", "events": [ { "context_classification": "WEEKEND_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2006-04-01 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AAWWUSD", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 6.0, "ticker": "AAWW" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2005-06-09 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABEVUSD", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 1.2, "ticker": "ABEV" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2009-05-26 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACLIUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.25, "ticker": "ACLI" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2022-09-14 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "OBSERVED_HELD_PRE_BOUNDARY", "held_evidence": [ { "qty": -40584.0, "ts": 1663027200000 } ], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADTXUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.02, "ticker": "ADTX" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2022-06-06 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADXSUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.0125, "ticker": "ADXS" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2025-05-21 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AIFUUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.05, "ticker": "AIFU" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2022-11-22 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AMPEUSD", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.06667, "ticker": "AMPE" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2025-07-01 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:APGUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 1.5, "ticker": "APG" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2024-10-02 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AREBUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.11111, "ticker": "AREB" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2026-02-02 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AREBUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.05, "ticker": "AREB" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2016-12-27 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:BASXQUSD", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.00175, "ticker": "BASXQ" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2024-07-24 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:BURUUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.025, "ticker": "BURU" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2006-08-28 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CAJPYUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 1.5, "ticker": "CAJPY" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2019-03-28 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CCECUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.14286, "ticker": "CCEC" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2019-12-20 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CENNUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.01, "ticker": "CENN" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2024-10-03 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CETXUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.01667, "ticker": "CETX" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2017-05-01 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CIVIUSD", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.00896, "ticker": "CIVI" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2026-04-24 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CUEUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.03333, "ticker": "CUE" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2019-06-03 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DDUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.33333, "ticker": "DD" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2009-08-07 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DIAL1USD", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.005, "ticker": "DIAL1" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2024-11-13 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DNMRQUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.025, "ticker": "DNMRQ" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2017-07-21 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DRYSUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.14286, "ticker": "DRYS" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2014-10-16 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:EGLE2USD", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.005, "ticker": "EGLE2" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2022-04-05 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ENOVUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.33333, "ticker": "ENOV" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2005-10-31 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ETS1USD", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.125, "ticker": "ETS1" }, { "context_classification": "NEARBY_ACQUISITION_OR_MERGER_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2016-12-02 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:EVHCUSD", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.334, "ticker": "EVHC" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2011-12-21 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:EXPEUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.5, "ticker": "EXPE" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2022-02-15 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:FRGTUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.45455, "ticker": "FRGT" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2015-12-14 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:GBSNUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.01667, "ticker": "GBSN" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2011-11-04 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:GEVAUSD", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.2, "ticker": "GEVA" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2011-02-18 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:GNTA1USD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.02, "ticker": "GNTA1" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2017-01-04 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:HLTUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.33333, "ticker": "HLT" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2011-12-20 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:HRZLUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.04, "ticker": "HRZL" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2012-06-29 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:HSHUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.2, "ticker": "HSH" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2009-02-25 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:IDTUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.33333, "ticker": "IDT" }, { "context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ex_date": "2005-06-28 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:IHGUSD", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "queued_order_evidence": [], 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"held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:MOVE1USD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.25, "ticker": "MOVE1" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2011-01-04 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:MSIUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.14286, "ticker": "MSI" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2005-08-09 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:MTCHUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.5, "ticker": "MTCH" }, { "context_classification": 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"NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:PRTKUSD", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.2, "ticker": "PRTK" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2012-06-20 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:RIOTUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.16667, "ticker": "RIOT" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2011-08-31 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:RNWKUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.25, "ticker": "RNWK" }, { 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"NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.031, "ticker": "TDW" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2008-09-26 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:THMRQUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.1, "ticker": "THMRQ" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2023-10-13 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:TTOOUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.01, "ticker": "TTOO" }, { "context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2009-03-30 04:00:00+04:00", 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"context_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2025-12-29 04:00:00+04:00", "exposure_classification": "NO_OBSERVED_PRE_BOUNDARY_EXPOSURE", "held_evidence": [], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WOKUSD", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "queued_order_evidence": [], "stored_ratio": 0.01, "ticker": "WOK" } ], "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "context_content_hash": "sha256:c81c35a83c706cec7a8b4e4c9f22d1f0c874c26fe42c8a92ebdc0bc75c7b4d3f", "context_path": "artifacts/audit/unresolved_split_event_context.json", "context_sha256": "98304049af107814ec6b7798ff6ea91ab54e16c1f8801c202f1fbbd8d692b2c0", "execution_path_files": 258, "execution_path_tree_sha256": "b0fde9d9398a6e0346f93b886513fda5e2eb202777b818b912328e57e0544fb3", "lifecycle_content_hash": "sha256:deed344bd2823f820e326b69f510f704a11b3ba3d2621100594da2600f78cb2d", "lifecycle_path": "artifacts/audit/sharadar_split_lifecycle_scope.json", "lifecycle_sha256": "017f1723f1937900bc2e40aa1f54f0187286ffda794e4cddcf11159ce82031bf", "replay_end_ms": 1780099200000, "replay_start_ms": 1104710400000, "sealed_replay_path": "artifacts/probe/fundamental_single_replays/e5f48adc25065ce9" }, "required_next_action": "Resolve every event with observed pre-boundary exposure using issuer evidence. Treat no-observed-exposure classifications as historical-path evidence only; do not assume they prove a future replay cannot select the instrument.", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-operating-margin-failed-split-exposure-audit.v2", "summary": { "independent_provider_confirmed_events": 51, "no_observed_pre_boundary_exposure": 69, "observed_held_pre_boundary": 2, "observed_queued_pre_boundary": 0, "outside_sealed_replay_window": 0, "post_2005_in_lifecycle_failed_events": 71, "unresolved_events": 20 } }, "operating_margin_exposed_split_resolution": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This authorizes bypassing only the price-gap heuristic for the named event, date, and ratio tuples. It does not authorize a broad tolerance change, a different ratio, a replay result, or any performance claim.", "content_hash": "sha256:fa8595944365c27e6a8a49a490ccdafd7f37db31808e569da527c8926fb1b550", "decision": "EXACT_EXPOSED_SPLIT_VERIFICATION_AUTHORIZED_FOR_FAIL_CLOSED_REPLAY", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "exposure_content_hash": "sha256:c9d379d6a7bd9a7991f561e84162ba1f8c78715b32d540b7b56b6d179eaf6dfd", "exposure_path": "artifacts/audit/operating_margin_unresolved_split_exposure.json", "exposure_sha256": "28feea05b0a4bdf8ad35abeafb39881d3abe2cc6ce16d7f2ba9efe5c9625b251", "provider_crosscheck_content_hash": "sha256:b401c5260988ba900d0acac857bfeda28a3cb353d6a18db3b9ef55890dc67a32", "provider_crosscheck_path": "artifacts/audit/polygon_split_crosscheck.json", "provider_crosscheck_sha256": "5c00be6dee175309d3511f1d183906824f651847e7561df722a03fad5a3e0fb8" }, "required_next_action": "Teach the engine to accept an explicit content-addressed exact-event verification map. Every non-matching event must continue through the existing price sanity guard.", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T03:19:41.864635+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-operating-margin-exposed-split-issuer-resolution.v1", "verified_events": [ { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "ex_date": "2022-09-14 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1663113600000, "historical_position_evidence": [ { "qty": -40584.0, "ts": 1663027200000 } ], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADTXUSD", "ratio": 0.02, "required_fragments": [ "one-for-fifty (1-for-50) reverse split", "began trading on a split-adjusted basis on September 14, 2022" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "one-for-fifty (1-for-50) reverse split", "began trading on a split-adjusted basis on September 14, 2022" ], "retrieved_sha256": "af4f71485f8ce5b0963da52af8dc0f2d595c0e76db659daeae194516ab151471", "ticker": "ADTX", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1726711/000121390022061276/ea166672-8k_aditxt.htm" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "ex_date": "2024-06-17 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1718582400000, "historical_position_evidence": [ { "qty": -23240.0, "ts": 1718323200000 } ], "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:SPCEUSD", "ratio": 0.05, "required_fragments": [ "1-for-20 reverse stock split", "commence trading on a split-adjusted basis when the market opens on June 17, 2024" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "1-for-20 reverse stock split", "commence trading on a split-adjusted basis when the market opens on June 17, 2024" ], "retrieved_sha256": "45574331e615cbd4015289698b845db5206b7a1c0481b48cdab9dfd31329fadc", "ticker": "SPCE", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1706946/000119312524159991/d829568d8k.htm" } ] }, "operating_margin_corrected_replay_authorization": { "accounting": { "dividend_gate_passed": true, "exact_issuer_verified_exposed_events": 2, "global_split_failures": 473, "global_split_gate_passed": false, "historically_exposed_events": 2, "no_observed_pre_boundary_exposure": 69, "post_2005_in_lifecycle_failed_events": 71, "within_lifecycle_requires_resolution": 112 }, "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This authorizes one zero-trial corrected-data reproduction of the immutable single_operating_margin identity. The global lake split gate remains failed. This receipt does not predict or validate Sharpe, drawdown, admission, or live performance.", "content_hash": "sha256:f812e1576bf430eee48be1df5d8d10af759b014de898919ba5e2da415f1e51bc", "corrected_lake": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar", "decision": "OPERATING_MARGIN_CORRECTED_REPLAY_AUTHORIZED_FAIL_CLOSED", "execution_code": { "src/alphaforge/analytics/walkforward.py": "4db6d0ddf33e3e9537b017c87840179facfa2ff4b2e6a5c04d3fe68b0fe6188b", "src/alphaforge/backtest/engine.py": "5c7d3479ca6ef2a09f2d1faccc4b5f6a9ca1c880897086e40363f88b249b204b" }, "hypotheses_spent": 0, "hypothesis_key": "e5f48adc25065ce9", "lineage": { "artifacts/audit/operating_margin_exposed_split_issuer_resolution.json": { "content_hash": "sha256:fa8595944365c27e6a8a49a490ccdafd7f37db31808e569da527c8926fb1b550", "sha256": "38945e4d8df3771f834b9d577edb106bb2dff5129ee0c34627bb02720308b089" }, "artifacts/audit/operating_margin_unresolved_split_exposure.json": { "content_hash": "sha256:c9d379d6a7bd9a7991f561e84162ba1f8c78715b32d540b7b56b6d179eaf6dfd", "sha256": "28feea05b0a4bdf8ad35abeafb39881d3abe2cc6ce16d7f2ba9efe5c9625b251" }, "artifacts/audit/sharadar_corporate_action_corrected_lake.json": { "content_hash": "sha256:178c4564f9c5e0b917db752879c08a2f25c3133e614f92f0ecec6af3c33ef1c0", "sha256": "2ff4354d2f569b182901ae1a079270e78438c8fd1e7c35b115e79dd0bc65306a" }, "artifacts/audit/sharadar_corrected_corporate_action_validation.json": { "content_hash": "sha256:6ed09e42b6e6a744df4dfb3c9bbd927b58ac70a813c9c819a1592daa8afae583", "sha256": "74d91878d38321e344982ef1104ca918d354f18210d6edde946e61673cf9266b" }, "artifacts/audit/sharadar_split_lifecycle_scope.json": { "content_hash": "sha256:deed344bd2823f820e326b69f510f704a11b3ba3d2621100594da2600f78cb2d", "sha256": "017f1723f1937900bc2e40aa1f54f0187286ffda794e4cddcf11159ce82031bf" } }, "required_runtime_behavior": "Only the two exact issuer-verified tuples may bypass the split price-gap heuristic. Any other exposed split without a valid price boundary must abort the replay.", "return_data_opened": false, "run_name": "single_operating_margin", "schema": "canli.alphac-operating-margin-corrected-replay-authorization.v1", "sealed_at": "2026-08-23T03:35:45.251683+00:00", "verified_split_events": [ { "ex_date_ms": 1663113600000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADTXUSD", "ratio": 0.02 }, { "ex_date_ms": 1718582400000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:SPCEUSD", "ratio": 0.05 } ] }, "operating_margin_corrected_reproduction": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "The corporate-action correction materially changes the measured curve but does not rescue the factor: corrected Sharpe, CAGR, and total return remain negative. This is a zero-trial reproduction, not a new hypothesis, sleeve admission, or forward claim.", "content_hash": "sha256:04c000216be3ba13f1ba3e196d8543e77ff1f18a876753005c6b13a7b856ed0f", "corrected_measurement": { "annualized_sharpe": -0.1457641218704682, "cagr": -0.007664741439944112, "final_equity": 84805.91738542935, "maximum_drawdown": 0.24466923153195985, "n_periods": 5384, "total_return": -0.15194082614570648 }, "decision": "CORRECTED_OPERATING_MARGIN_REPRODUCED_KILL_PRESERVED", "difference": { "annualized_sharpe": 0.27161681438781793, "final_equity": 20894.272306160055, "maximum_drawdown": -0.151565601623755 }, "hypotheses_spent": 0, "immutable_measurement": { "annualized_sharpe": -0.4173809362582861, "final_equity": 63911.64507926929, "maximum_drawdown": 0.39623483315571484 }, "lineage": { "authorization_content_hash": "sha256:f812e1576bf430eee48be1df5d8d10af759b014de898919ba5e2da415f1e51bc", "authorization_path": "artifacts/audit/operating_margin_corrected_replay_authorization.json", "authorization_sha256": "50cb648a88c219b2c55b5b9861b570264f38c70dd69a2626edb7790cd4d8e0e3", "environment_path": "artifacts/probe/fundamental_single_replays/e5f48adc25065ce9/corrected_corporate_actions_f812e1576bf430ee/replay_environment.json", "environment_sha256": "dc007cb1c3b121222da021a60f532cab3b9fc754d8eab15fe67990e926283963", "equity_path": "artifacts/probe/fundamental_single_replays/e5f48adc25065ce9/corrected_corporate_actions_f812e1576bf430ee/equity.parquet", "equity_sha256": "9897daecdf992a999f794bf43e8b9a671be489c3a68517503dcc9edf7f2b69e4", "historical_path": "artifacts/walkforward/single_operating_margin/walkforward.json", "historical_sha256": "603e5d53e3f1d36b1585cdd923f6fd7e1709db29b1505a0c15d4242be6bdf7e5", "result_path": "artifacts/probe/fundamental_single_replays/e5f48adc25065ce9/corrected_corporate_actions_f812e1576bf430ee/result.json", "result_sha256": "ec8d2959a1eb91d96162c35ab762dd36636da91157fcd238fedaf10bd840dc0b", "walkforward_path": "artifacts/probe/fundamental_single_replays/e5f48adc25065ce9/corrected_corporate_actions_f812e1576bf430ee/walkforward.json", "walkforward_sha256": "a80414e520fe79b435373a5c3ba3864d25bd1a972666143b5e87473e11d4a853" }, "schema": "canli.alphac-operating-margin-corrected-reproduction-seal.v1", "verdict": "KILL" }, "sharadar_split_governance_policy": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This closes the governance-routing gap, not the global data-quality gate. It does not repair a ratio, delete an event, authorize broad replay, validate performance, or admit a sleeve.", "content_hash": "sha256:20dceb4995121d0895223f830d87e858c5f527e2936cadb5cdf3a98778ab2b28", "decision": "ALL_FAILED_SPLIT_EVENTS_ROUTED_GLOBAL_GATE_REMAINS_CLOSED", "events": [ { "ex_date": "2005-06-29 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1120003200000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2005-11-09", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AAWWUSD", "last_price_date": "2023-03-17", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 0.1, "ticker": "AAWW" }, { "ex_date": "2006-04-01 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1143849600000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2005-11-09", "governance_route": "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_CONFLICT_OR_DATE_MISMATCH", "in_unresolved_context_set": true, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AAWWUSD", "last_price_date": "2023-03-17", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "Primary issuer evidence conflicts with the frozen date or ratio semantics; execution remains forbidden pending a separately sealed correction.", "stored_ratio": 6.0, "ticker": "AAWW" }, { "ex_date": "2023-09-11 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1694390400000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2023-09-21", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABATUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 0.06667, "ticker": "ABAT" }, { "ex_date": "2001-04-04 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 986342400000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2001-04-06", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABBNYUSD", "last_price_date": "2023-05-22", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 4.0, "ticker": "ABBNY" }, { "ex_date": "2005-06-09 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1118275200000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "1997-03-05", "governance_route": "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_CONFLICT_OR_DATE_MISMATCH", "in_unresolved_context_set": true, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABEVUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "Primary issuer evidence conflicts with the frozen date or ratio semantics; execution remains forbidden pending a separately sealed correction.", "stored_ratio": 1.2, "ticker": "ABEV" }, { "ex_date": "1998-04-28 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 893721600000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "1998-05-05", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ABIZQUSD", "last_price_date": "2002-04-04", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 3.25, "ticker": "ABIZQ" }, { "ex_date": "2011-05-19 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1305763200000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2011-11-01", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACHCUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 100000.0, "ticker": "ACHC" }, { "ex_date": "2011-11-01 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1320105600000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2011-11-01", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_FIRST_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACHCUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "FIRST_PRICE_BOUNDARY_NO_PREEXISTING_EXPOSURE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_EVENT_CONFLICT", "reason": "The event coincides with the first frozen price and has no pre-event exposure.", "stored_ratio": 1.7633, "ticker": "ACHC" }, { "ex_date": "2020-06-18 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1592438400000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2020-06-26", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACIUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 2.072, "ticker": "ACI" }, { "ex_date": "2009-05-26 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1243296000000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2005-10-07", "governance_route": "PROVIDER_CORROBORATED_PRICE_CONFLICT_FAIL_CLOSED", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACLIUSD", "last_price_date": "2010-12-21", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "reason": "One independent provider confirms the ratio, but the local price boundary still fails; issuer evidence or a passing boundary is required before execution.", "stored_ratio": 0.25, "ticker": "ACLI" }, { "ex_date": "2004-08-30 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1093824000000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2002-03-21", "governance_route": "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_CONFLICT_OR_DATE_MISMATCH", "in_unresolved_context_set": true, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACLUSD", "last_price_date": "2011-04-08", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "Primary issuer evidence conflicts with the frozen date or ratio semantics; execution remains forbidden pending a separately sealed correction.", "stored_ratio": 0.1, "ticker": "ACL" }, { "ex_date": "2016-10-04 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1475539200000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2016-10-06", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADSWUSD", "last_price_date": "2020-10-29", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 64615.0, "ticker": "ADSW" }, { "ex_date": "2022-09-14 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1663113600000, "execution_authorized": true, "first_price_date": "2020-06-30", "governance_route": "EXACT_ISSUER_VERIFIED_EXECUTABLE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADTXUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "reason": "Issuer evidence authorizes only this exact instrument/date/ratio tuple.", "stored_ratio": 0.02, "ticker": "ADTX" }, { "ex_date": "2022-06-06 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1654473600000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2005-07-28", "governance_route": "PROVIDER_CORROBORATED_PRICE_CONFLICT_FAIL_CLOSED", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ADXSUSD", "last_price_date": "2022-06-06", "lifecycle_classification": 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false, "first_price_date": "2007-12-13", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_FIRST_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CATMUSD", "last_price_date": "2021-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "FIRST_PRICE_BOUNDARY_NO_PREEXISTING_EXPOSURE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "The event coincides with the first frozen price and has no pre-event exposure.", "stored_ratio": 7.9485, "ticker": "CATM" }, { "ex_date": "2004-04-01 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1080777600000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2004-06-10", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CBREUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": 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"local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 0.02, "ticker": "KITDQ" }, { "ex_date": "2009-03-09 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1236556800000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2009-08-13", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:KITDQUSD", "last_price_date": "2013-08-16", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 0.02857, "ticker": "KITDQ" }, { "ex_date": "2024-09-06 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1725580800000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2024-10-09", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:KLCUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 0.1, "ticker": "KLC" }, { "ex_date": "1999-01-04 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 915408000000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "1986-01-01", "governance_route": "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_VERIFIED_COMPOSITE_ACTION", "in_unresolved_context_set": true, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:KMI1USD", "last_price_date": "2007-05-30", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "The share mutation is 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"lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 43.6, "ticker": "TWKS" }, { "ex_date": "2009-03-30 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1238371200000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "1992-03-19", "governance_route": "PROVIDER_CORROBORATED_PRICE_CONFLICT_FAIL_CLOSED", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:TWXUSD", "last_price_date": "2018-06-15", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "reason": "One independent provider confirms the ratio, but the local price boundary still fails; issuer evidence or a passing boundary is required before execution.", "stored_ratio": 0.33333, "ticker": "TWX" }, { "ex_date": "2009-07-27 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1248652800000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2013-04-23", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:TXMDUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 3.0, "ticker": "TXMD" }, { "ex_date": "2011-09-29 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1317254400000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2013-04-23", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:TXMDUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 0.01, "ticker": "TXMD" }, { "ex_date": "2007-07-02 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1183334400000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "1987-09-28", "governance_route": "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_VERIFIED_COMPOSITE_ACTION", "in_unresolved_context_set": true, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:TYCUSD", "last_price_date": "2016-09-02", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "The share mutation is issuer-verified, but its companion distributed-security entitlement is not replayed by the engine; split-only execution is forbidden.", "stored_ratio": 0.25, "ticker": "TYC" }, { "ex_date": "1998-06-30 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 899164800000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "1998-08-17", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:UBAUSD", "last_price_date": "2023-08-17", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "UBA" }, { "ex_date": "2001-12-14 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1008288000000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2001-12-14", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_FIRST_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:UDI2USD", "last_price_date": "2005-06-24", "lifecycle_classification": "FIRST_PRICE_BOUNDARY_NO_PREEXISTING_EXPOSURE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "The event coincides with the first frozen price and has no pre-event exposure.", "stored_ratio": 2.25, "ticker": "UDI2" }, { "ex_date": "2023-07-10 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1688947200000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2024-02-14", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:UMACUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 0.5, "ticker": "UMAC" }, { "ex_date": "2013-11-01 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1383264000000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "1999-09-24", "governance_route": "PROVIDER_CORROBORATED_PRICE_CONFLICT_FAIL_CLOSED", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:UNTDUSD", "last_price_date": "2016-06-30", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "reason": "One independent provider confirms the ratio, but the local price boundary still fails; issuer evidence or a passing boundary is required before execution.", "stored_ratio": 0.14286, "ticker": "UNTD" }, { "ex_date": "2005-05-10 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1115683200000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2017-04-13", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:UPLCQUSD", "last_price_date": "2020-09-14", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "UPLCQ" }, { "ex_date": "1999-04-16 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 924220800000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "1986-01-01", "governance_route": "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_CONFLICT_OR_DATE_MISMATCH", "in_unresolved_context_set": true, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:USBUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "Primary issuer evidence conflicts with the frozen date or ratio semantics; execution remains forbidden pending a separately sealed correction.", "stored_ratio": 3.0, "ticker": "USB" }, { "ex_date": "2000-10-03 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 970531200000, "execution_authorized": true, "first_price_date": "1993-12-08", "governance_route": "EXACT_ISSUER_VERIFIED_EXECUTABLE", "in_unresolved_context_set": true, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:UTI1USD", "last_price_date": "2001-05-08", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "Issuer evidence authorizes only this exact instrument/date/ratio tuple.", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "UTI1" }, { "ex_date": "2001-11-12 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1005523200000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2001-11-16", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VASUSD", "last_price_date": "2007-06-28", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 8657.0, "ticker": "VAS" }, { "ex_date": "2021-01-29 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1611878400000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2021-02-05", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VORUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 13.6, "ticker": "VOR" }, { "ex_date": "2009-09-10 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1252540800000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2009-10-07", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VRSKUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 50.0, "ticker": "VRSK" }, { "ex_date": "2013-02-06 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1360108800000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2015-01-28", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:VUZIUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 0.01333, "ticker": "VUZI" }, { "ex_date": "2024-05-15 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1715731200000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2024-06-07", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WAYUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 0.605, "ticker": "WAY" }, { "ex_date": "2024-06-25 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1719273600000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2024-06-27", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WBTNUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 30.0, "ticker": "WBTN" }, { "ex_date": "1999-05-11 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 926380800000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "1999-05-12", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WCCUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 57.8, "ticker": "WCC" }, { "ex_date": "2002-02-07 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1013040000000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2002-03-13", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WCIMQUSD", "last_price_date": "2009-09-03", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 1.43408, "ticker": "WCIMQ" }, { "ex_date": "2001-11-15 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1005782400000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2001-11-15", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_FIRST_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WGHTQUSD", "last_price_date": "2025-05-15", "lifecycle_classification": "FIRST_PRICE_BOUNDARY_NO_PREEXISTING_EXPOSURE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "The event coincides with the first frozen price and has no pre-event exposure.", "stored_ratio": 4.70536, "ticker": "WGHTQ" }, { "ex_date": "2010-06-01 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1275350400000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2016-01-04", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WKHSUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 14.0, "ticker": "WKHS" }, { "ex_date": "2015-12-11 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1449792000000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2016-01-04", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WKHSUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "reason": "No frozen price 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"lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 3.803, "ticker": "WLSC" }, { "ex_date": "2020-02-28 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1582848000000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2020-06-03", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WMGUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 477242.61467, "ticker": "WMG" }, { "ex_date": "2025-12-29 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1766966400000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2024-08-23", "governance_route": "PROVIDER_CORROBORATED_PRICE_CONFLICT_FAIL_CLOSED", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WOKUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "WITHIN_PRICE_LIFECYCLE_REQUIRES_RESOLUTION", "local_classification": "UNEXPLAINED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "reason": "One independent provider confirms the ratio, but the local price boundary still fails; issuer evidence or a passing boundary is required before execution.", "stored_ratio": 0.01, "ticker": "WOK" }, { "ex_date": "2004-08-26 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1093478400000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2021-01-14", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WOOFUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "WOOF" }, { "ex_date": "2025-10-22 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1761091200000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2025-11-14", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WSHPUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 0.25, "ticker": "WSHP" }, { "ex_date": "2004-05-27 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1085616000000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2010-08-26", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WSRUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 1.4, "ticker": "WSR" }, { "ex_date": "2010-08-24 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1282608000000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2010-08-26", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WSRUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 0.33333, "ticker": "WSR" }, { "ex_date": "2015-12-30 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1451433600000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2018-12-11", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:WTERUSD", "last_price_date": "2024-02-05", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 0.02, "ticker": "WTER" }, { "ex_date": "2017-01-09 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1483920000000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2019-05-08", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:XAIRUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": 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"first_price_date": "2014-03-11", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:XXIIUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_CONFIRMS_STORED_RATIO", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 2.782, "ticker": "XXII" }, { "ex_date": "2025-10-03 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1759449600000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2026-01-29", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:YSSUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 0.08818, "ticker": "YSS" }, { "ex_date": "2024-07-01 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1719792000000, "execution_authorized": false, "first_price_date": "2024-10-01", "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE", "in_unresolved_context_set": false, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ZENAUSD", "last_price_date": "2026-06-18", "lifecycle_classification": "BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE_NON_EXECUTABLE", "local_classification": "MISSING_TWO_SIDED_PRICE_BOUNDARY", "provider_classification": "NO_INDEPENDENT_PROVIDER_MATCH", "reason": "No frozen price bar or tradable pre-event state exists.", "stored_ratio": 0.16667, "ticker": "ZENA" } ], "execution_contract": { "authorized_bypass": "EXACT_ISSUER_VERIFIED_EXECUTABLE", "authorized_tuple_fields": [ "instrument_id", "ex_date_ms", "stored_ratio" ], "default": "FAIL_CLOSED", "provider_confirmation_alone_authorizes_execution": false, "quarantine_mutates_source_lake": false, "ratio_tolerance": { "absolute": 1e-12, "relative": 0.0 }, "unlisted_or_nonmatching_event_action": "ABORT_IF_EXPOSED" }, "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "composite_action_verification_content_hash": "sha256:e1d1d9fb384877b52199e86d0924e126b4eb208a7a9382ef3c9fc2aa5e60334b", "composite_action_verification_path": "artifacts/audit/split_issuer_resolution_batch_v4.json", "composite_action_verification_sha256": "ef08663291c147b109dbf9e9b0ae5a59f0a912ee9e21a9428f8743fdafb4ec70", "context_content_hash": "sha256:c81c35a83c706cec7a8b4e4c9f22d1f0c874c26fe42c8a92ebdc0bc75c7b4d3f", "context_path": "artifacts/audit/unresolved_split_event_context.json", "context_sha256": "98304049af107814ec6b7798ff6ea91ab54e16c1f8801c202f1fbbd8d692b2c0", "issuer_conflict_verification_content_hash": "sha256:fa5c744c0268e1c05c32d3fbfd286db01073a9e1a6367331ca908dae04145395", "issuer_conflict_verification_path": "artifacts/audit/split_issuer_conflict_resolution_batch_v5.json", "issuer_conflict_verification_sha256": 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"13adbfdc9fd8f18f0be94fbd62a845d592eb358da5a94cbb0998d3ab81d608da" }, { "content_hash": "sha256:6342504521c9d41ce2e22eb7fd54273ba7db85ca46a3ab00a24557c52fa400da", "path": "artifacts/audit/split_issuer_resolution_batch_v7.json", "sha256": "fd52f74d6b4e558899be75f95ddb2d19abab9e6f93a8baaf65a241e1de4d2ced" }, { "content_hash": "sha256:e6885c1f1b355f5fb71f030a0edb9d21baf3a5bacd07de0ce99f38f0ea435a1c", "path": "artifacts/audit/split_issuer_resolution_batch_v8.json", "sha256": "1a452d63dd631dc0b719df11c2e46f5699b969b742024457f281858b5ed55778" }, { "content_hash": "sha256:4fd9b0d804c589bbf619ab89ed1146a57d8a6448911cc847da1bcdead781533a", "path": "artifacts/audit/split_issuer_resolution_batch_v9.json", "sha256": "f5ea591eeb5b69ff91a4b2fdf9c3a76e2b733fd19afbb67c90e1b573f2dd294c" }, { "content_hash": "sha256:61f151501bd8c35b483517399632062aeea7e48938129ee6b91fbe373aa6bbf3", "path": "artifacts/audit/split_issuer_resolution_batch_v10.json", "sha256": "94419110c1b9f0916b8804de9283d2a9a626d123251b50edc44d9be33b57abf9" }, { "content_hash": "sha256:3fe329129db627a4fa26b3a6f51d75ddc70ac77d5857f788de68c399b08384ac", "path": "artifacts/audit/split_issuer_resolution_batch_v11.json", "sha256": "c9cb342b85e3abaf2386e0201e11c8503bc8085c7eda483d10d142bfbcecd915" } ], "lifecycle_content_hash": "sha256:deed344bd2823f820e326b69f510f704a11b3ba3d2621100594da2600f78cb2d", "lifecycle_discontinuity_content_hash": "sha256:af66b2190bc8aac83320d7ff7b8b540d57372698bd8a6d9cfde96f668d7f44dc", "lifecycle_discontinuity_path": "artifacts/audit/split_lifecycle_discontinuity_resolution.json", "lifecycle_discontinuity_sha256": "9e9121606bd8076b369324d4d63908a8cf167442c552a174ae729d7955d04c5b", "lifecycle_path": "artifacts/audit/sharadar_split_lifecycle_scope.json", "lifecycle_sha256": "017f1723f1937900bc2e40aa1f54f0187286ffda794e4cddcf11159ce82031bf" }, "policy_version": "split-governance-v2", "required_next_action": "Resolve the two genuinely unresolved events with issuer/regulator evidence. Until then, future trial runners may use only the 25 exact authorization tuples and must abort if any other failed split becomes exposed.", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-sharadar-split-governance-policy.v2", "summary": { "events_routed": 473, "exact_execution_authorizations": 25, "fail_closed_or_quarantined": 82, "genuinely_unresolved": 2, "global_split_gate_passed": false, "lifecycle_non_executable": 366, "routes": { "EXACT_ISSUER_VERIFIED_EXECUTABLE": 25, "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_CONFLICT_OR_DATE_MISMATCH": 16, "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_VERIFIED_COMPOSITE_ACTION": 12, "HARD_QUARANTINE_UNRESOLVED_IN_LIFECYCLE": 2, "NON_EXECUTABLE_AFTER_LAST_PRICE": 5, "NON_EXECUTABLE_BEFORE_FIRST_PRICE": 332, "NON_EXECUTABLE_FIRST_PRICE_BOUNDARY": 23, "NON_EXECUTABLE_ISSUER_VERIFIED_LIFECYCLE_DISCONTINUITY": 6, "PROVIDER_CORROBORATED_PRICE_CONFLICT_FAIL_CLOSED": 52 } } }, "split_issuer_resolution_batch_v2": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "Issuer evidence resolves only AMPE on its first resumed split-adjusted trading date and EVHC as a merger exchange conversion on its first Newco trading date. It does not open returns, authorize another event, validate performance, or pass the global split gate.", "content_hash": "sha256:beceafdeb0917e77ccd2c30d2bd95fd39b18e7f55e115307a36d5cb13199567e", "decision": "TWO_EXACT_QUARANTINED_EVENTS_ISSUER_VERIFIED", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "unresolved_context_content_hash": "sha256:c81c35a83c706cec7a8b4e4c9f22d1f0c874c26fe42c8a92ebdc0bc75c7b4d3f", "unresolved_context_path": "artifacts/audit/unresolved_split_event_context.json", "unresolved_context_sha256": "98304049af107814ec6b7798ff6ea91ab54e16c1f8801c202f1fbbd8d692b2c0" }, "required_next_action": "Merge only these exact instrument/date/stored-ratio tuples into the global fail-closed governance policy. Do not infer a broad ratio tolerance or event rule.", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T05:22:51.406855+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-split-issuer-resolution-batch.v2", "verified_events": [ { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "event_semantics": "FIRST_SPLIT_ADJUSTED_TRADING_RESUMPTION", "ex_date": "2022-11-22 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1669075200000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AMPEUSD", "issuer_ratio": 0.06666666666666667, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 0.06667, "ratio_binding": "ISSUER_RATIO_ROUNDED_TO_FROZEN_FIVE_DECIMAL_VENDOR_PRECISION", "required_fragments": [ "fifteen-to-one reverse stock split", "became effective November 9, 2022", "common stock will commence trading on the NYSE American on Tuesday, November 22, 2022" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "fifteen-to-one reverse stock split", "became effective November 9, 2022", "common stock will commence trading on the NYSE American on Tuesday, November 22, 2022" ], "retrieved_sha256": "ade5eca5329437df4e91faf0a169a5b293e18a622069b4073e13ee2580b8ef46", "stored_ratio": 0.06667, "ticker": "AMPE", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1411906/000155837022018084/ampe-20221117xex99d1.htm" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "event_semantics": "MERGER_EXCHANGE_CONVERSION_AT_FIRST_NEWCO_TRADING_DATE", "ex_date": "2016-12-02 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1480636800000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:EVHCUSD", "issuer_ratio": 0.334, "prior_context_classification": "NEARBY_ACQUISITION_OR_MERGER_CONTEXT", "ratio": 0.334, "ratio_binding": "ISSUER_RATIO_EXACTLY_MATCHES_FROZEN_VENDOR_RATIO", "required_fragments": [ "each share of EHH common stock was converted into 0.334 shares of Company common stock", "On December 2, 2016, shares of the common stock of the Company", "began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol \u201cEVHC\u201d" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "each share of EHH common stock was converted into 0.334 shares of Company common stock", "On December 2, 2016, shares of the common stock of the Company", "began trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol \u201cEVHC\u201d" ], "retrieved_sha256": "eae52a9c0b668a09ee3d5ed871d3bb2334bcc9e7eef1533d9a12908b0fbdc880", "stored_ratio": 0.334, "ticker": "EVHC", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1678531/000167853117000044/evhc-2016123110k.htm" } ] }, "split_issuer_resolution_batch_v3": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This seal verifies the old-share 1-for-9,200 mutation and its first frozen post-effective-date bar. It does not infer entitlement to restructuring issuances, open returns, authorize another event, or pass the global split gate.", "content_hash": "sha256:d5b2e24b502dffc1c059e82525c30829a657a0add8354896ed57b60f474d06ea", "decision": "ORIG_EXACT_RESTRUCTURING_REVERSE_SPLIT_ISSUER_VERIFIED", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "unresolved_context_content_hash": "sha256:c81c35a83c706cec7a8b4e4c9f22d1f0c874c26fe42c8a92ebdc0bc75c7b4d3f", "unresolved_context_path": "artifacts/audit/unresolved_split_event_context.json", "unresolved_context_sha256": "98304049af107814ec6b7798ff6ea91ab54e16c1f8801c202f1fbbd8d692b2c0" }, "required_next_action": "Merge only this exact instrument/date/stored-ratio tuple into the fail-closed policy. Concurrent restructuring issuance explains why the price boundary need not equal the reverse-split ratio.", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T05:37:01.926527+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-split-issuer-resolution-batch.v3", "verified_events": [ { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "event_semantics": "REVERSE_SPLIT_AT_FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_LEGAL_EFFECTIVE_DATE", "ex_date": "2017-09-22 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1506038400000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ORIGUSD", "issuer_effective_date": "2017-09-21", "issuer_ratio": 0.00010869565217391305, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "EVENT_DATE_IS_FIRST_FROZEN_PRICE_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE", "event_close": 24.0, "event_date": "2017-09-22", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:ORIGUSD/year=2017/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "68b37ef4ce4ceffdc9814193e9b466cc2f40cd1ba587660428ff0cb07530dd31", "prior_close": 0.075, "prior_date": "2017-09-21" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 0.00011, "ratio_binding": "ISSUER_RATIO_ROUNDED_TO_FROZEN_FIVE_DECIMAL_VENDOR_PRECISION", "required_fragments": [ "On September 21, 2017, the Company effected a 1-for-9,200 reverse stock split", "of the then-existing shares of the Company's issued common stock", "Following the reverse stock split, there were approximately 8,975 shares", "The CUSIP number for the common stock following the reverse stock split is G66964118" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "On September 21, 2017, the Company effected a 1-for-9,200 reverse stock split", "of the then-existing shares of the Company's issued common stock", "Following the reverse stock split, there were approximately 8,975 shares", "The CUSIP number for the common stock following the reverse stock split is G66964118" ], "retrieved_sha256": "91fe36f300701f6a9b55d26e470f5eecb0db31369449b4b86f5347d830c89e9a", "stored_ratio": 0.00011, "ticker": "ORIG", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1447382/000091957417006882/d7659156_ex99-1.htm" } ] }, "split_issuer_resolution_batch_v4": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This verifies only the ATNI, CMO, ITT, SBRA, NRF, IHG, KMI1, KSU, TYC, T1, RBAK, and SDH1 share-mutation components. Because the engine does not replay their companion distributed securities, special dividend, or cash scheme consideration, none is executable. This does not open returns, validate performance, or pass the global split gate.", "content_hash": "sha256:e1d1d9fb384877b52199e86d0924e126b4eb208a7a9382ef3c9fc2aa5e60334b", "decision": "TWELVE_COMPOSITE_SHARE_MUTATIONS_VERIFIED_REPLAY_NOT_AUTHORIZED", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "unresolved_context_content_hash": "sha256:c81c35a83c706cec7a8b4e4c9f22d1f0c874c26fe42c8a92ebdc0bc75c7b4d3f", "unresolved_context_path": "artifacts/audit/unresolved_split_event_context.json", "unresolved_context_sha256": "98304049af107814ec6b7798ff6ea91ab54e16c1f8801c202f1fbbd8d692b2c0" }, "required_next_action": "Route these exact tuples as issuer-verified composite-action quarantines until the engine can replay each separate distributed-security or cash entitlement.", "resolved_events": [ { "date_binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_PRECEDES_EVENT_WITHOUT_PRE_EVENT_BAR", "event_semantics": "SPLIT_OFF_WITH_COMPANION_ECI_SECURITY_ENTITLEMENT", "ex_date": "1997-12-31 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 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"event_semantics": "BANKRUPTCY_REVERSE_SPLIT_WITH_CREDITOR_EQUITY_AND_STOCKHOLDER_WARRANTS", "ex_date": "2004-01-05 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1073260800000, "execution_authorized": false, "governance_route": "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_VERIFIED_COMPOSITE_ACTION", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:RBAKUSD", "issuer_effective_date": "2004-01-02", "issuer_ratio": 0.01362583458236817, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE", "event_close": 7.8, "event_date": "2004-01-05", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:RBAKUSD/year=2004/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "a92635f72db2722ee0516eddda10dc2d355d160e65e0d8966d4fe72c51c460a1", "prior_close": 0.22, "prior_date": "2004-01-02", "prior_price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:RBAKUSD/year=2003/data.parquet", "prior_price_partition_sha256": "3e5a229a05bd7a302f7925b1628cf073f9cced9e5a369f3ac13b676729334762" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 0.01363, "required_companion_replay": "CREDITOR_EQUITY_AND_STOCKHOLDER_WARRANT_ENTITLEMENTS", "required_fragments": [ "the issuance of warrants exercisable for the Company's common stock to the Company's stockholders", "an approximate 73.39:1 reverse stock split", "holders of the Convertible Notes received an aggregate of 47,500,000 shares", "January 2, 2004 the Company emerged from bankruptcy" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "the issuance of warrants exercisable for the Company's common stock to the Company's stockholders", "an approximate 73.39:1 reverse stock split", "holders of the Convertible Notes received an aggregate of 47,500,000 shares", "January 2, 2004 the Company emerged from bankruptcy" ], "retrieved_sha256": "ecfc47b178a160da1486938625955b5160d6731e08b0d8a2a950bb1c179fae93", "share_mutation_verified": true, "stored_ratio": 0.01363, "ticker": "RBAK", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1081290/000119312504042090/d10k.htm" }, { "date_binding": "ISSUER_DATE_MISMATCH_COMPOSITE_ACTION", "event_semantics": "SPINOFF_AND_MERGER_REVERSE_SPLIT_WITH_TWO_NEW_MARRIOTT_CLASSES", "ex_date": "1998-03-23 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 890611200000, "execution_authorized": false, "governance_route": "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_VERIFIED_COMPOSITE_ACTION", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:SDH1USD", "issuer_effective_date": "1998-03-27", "issuer_ratio": 0.25, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "ISSUER_DATE_MISMATCH_COMPOSITE_ACTION", "event_close": 24.0, "event_date": "1998-03-23", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:SDH1USD/year=1998/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "a2131208c2682f271b817fb9de800a80f4005298ff055fbb37986b7372e3367c", "prior_close": 79.875, "prior_date": "1998-03-20", "prior_price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:SDH1USD/year=1997/data.parquet", "prior_price_partition_sha256": "950290273824983a94b2c0b48c78c594dd290b248921f085c9504650be344b5e" }, "prior_context_classification": "NEARBY_SPINOFF_CONTEXT", "ratio": 0.25, "required_companion_replay": "SEPARATE_SPINOFF_DISTRIBUTED_SECURITY_ENTITLEMENT", "required_fragments": [ "On March 27, 1998, Marriott International, Inc.", "received one share of MAR Common Stock and one share of MAR-A Common Stock", "Immediately following the Distribution, shares of Old Marriott common stock underwent a one-for-four reverse stock split", "25 shares of Sodexho Marriott Services, Inc. common stock" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "On March 27, 1998, Marriott International, Inc.", "received one share of MAR Common Stock and one share of MAR-A Common Stock", "Immediately following the Distribution, shares of Old Marriott common stock underwent a one-for-four reverse stock split", "25 shares of Sodexho Marriott Services, Inc. common stock" ], "retrieved_sha256": "334df3e5936d58ab03e7c5f183d3d496559f7b975ba4a2cdcdb89744c5cc6698", "share_mutation_verified": true, "stored_ratio": 0.25, "ticker": "SDH1", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1048286/000092838598000674/0000928385-98-000674.txt" } ], "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T07:19:11.005098+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-split-issuer-resolution-batch.v4" }, "split_issuer_conflict_resolution_batch_v5": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This identifies eleven issuer-date, duplicate, or composite mismatches, four ratio-semantics conflicts, and one issuer-identity/timeline conflict. It does not repair either row, authorize execution, open returns, validate performance, or pass the global split gate.", "content_hash": "sha256:fa5c744c0268e1c05c32d3fbfd286db01073a9e1a6367331ca908dae04145395", "decision": "SIXTEEN_ISSUER_CONFLICTS_RESOLVED_SEMANTICALLY_EXECUTION_REMAINS_FORBIDDEN", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "unresolved_context_content_hash": "sha256:c81c35a83c706cec7a8b4e4c9f22d1f0c874c26fe42c8a92ebdc0bc75c7b4d3f", "unresolved_context_path": "artifacts/audit/unresolved_split_event_context.json", "unresolved_context_sha256": "98304049af107814ec6b7798ff6ea91ab54e16c1f8801c202f1fbbd8d692b2c0" }, "required_next_action": "Keep all sixteen exact frozen tuples quarantined. CDR, DIAL1, GEVA, IPAR, USB, PRGN1, ABEV, and E require issuer-supported date corrections; NVEC and PRTK also require composite merger replay; MHGVY and EXMCQ have unsupported stored-ratio semantics; AAWW and ACL have stored mutations contradicted by issuer share counts; AZAA predates issuer formation and ticker trading.", "resolved_events": [ { "conflict": "ISSUER_SHARE_COUNTS_CONTRADICT_SIX_FOR_ONE_STORED_MUTATION", "ex_date": "2006-04-01 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1143849600000, "execution_authorized": false, "governance_route": "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_CONFLICT_OR_DATE_MISMATCH", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:AAWWUSD", "issuer_evidence": { "post_event_2006_q2_shares": 20049108, "pre_event_2005_year_end_shares": 19815338 }, "issuer_ratio": 1.0, "issuer_terms_date": "2006-06-30", "market_boundary": { "boundary_available": true, "event_date_bar_present": false, "first_three_bars_after_event": [ { "close": 44.5, "date": "2006-04-03", "volume": 505200.0 }, { "close": 45.01, "date": "2006-04-04", "volume": 1137800.0 }, { "close": 46.0, "date": "2006-04-05", "volume": 15300.0 } ], "last_three_bars_on_or_before_event": [ { "close": 46.5, "date": "2006-03-29", "volume": 22700.0 }, { "close": 47.55, "date": "2006-03-30", "volume": 9800.0 }, { "close": 47.1, "date": "2006-03-31", "volume": 15600.0 } ], "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:AAWWUSD/year=2006/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "8e4050e20962ec00379efd69480cf8ea1ce03301b10a2605a3de4b7fdb26301b" }, "prior_context_classification": "WEEKEND_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "required_fragments": [ "As of June 30, 2006, there were 20,049,108 shares", "20,049,108 and 19,815,338 shares outstanding" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "As of June 30, 2006, there were 20,049,108 shares", "20,049,108 and 19,815,338 shares outstanding" ], "retrieved_sha256": "4436f2cb0c9f68e2042e1506da256b11f4c2c5742a95828fb394fc43ec4e6910", "stored_ratio": 6.0, "ticker": "AAWW", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1135185/000093041306005893/c43889_10-q.htm" }, { "conflict": "ISSUER_SHARE_COUNTS_CONTRADICT_ONE_FOR_TEN_STORED_MUTATION", "ex_date": "2004-08-30 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1093824000000, "execution_authorized": false, "governance_route": "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_CONFLICT_OR_DATE_MISMATCH", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ACLUSD", "issuer_evidence": { "post_event_2004_year_end_shares": 305654454, "pre_event_2003_year_end_shares": 308519051 }, "issuer_ratio": 1.0, "issuer_terms_date": "2004-12-31", "market_boundary": { "boundary_available": true, "event_date_bar_present": true, "first_three_bars_after_event": [ { "close": 74.84, "date": "2004-08-31", "volume": 566000.0 }, { "close": 75.0, "date": "2004-09-01", "volume": 333800.0 }, { "close": 75.63, "date": "2004-09-02", "volume": 394300.0 } ], "last_three_bars_on_or_before_event": [ { "close": 75.67, "date": "2004-08-26", "volume": 763500.0 }, { "close": 75.86, "date": "2004-08-27", "volume": 331300.0 }, { "close": 75.1, "date": "2004-08-30", "volume": 454000.0 } ], "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:ACLUSD/year=2004/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "28fc1e9655d528bae16abc29ed8017604802e569fd279ed7375499721ccc1f47" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "required_fragments": [ "305,654,454 shares outstanding at December 31, 2004", "308,519,051 shares outstanding at December 31, 2003" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "305,654,454 shares outstanding at December 31, 2004", "308,519,051 shares outstanding at December 31, 2003" ], "retrieved_sha256": "b55c4a33e971fde6ae801b5853e7ab5b04aa5e679eaa86f8643bdbab493297ae", "stored_ratio": 0.1, "ticker": "ACL", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1167379/000116737905000020/acl20f2004.htm" }, { "conflict": "ISSUER_EVENT_DATE_DOES_NOT_MATCH_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "ex_date": "2003-07-15 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1058227200000, "execution_authorized": false, "governance_route": "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_CONFLICT_OR_DATE_MISMATCH", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CDRUSD", "issuer_event_date": "2003-07-07", "issuer_ratio": 2.0, "market_boundary": { "boundary_available": true, "event_date_bar_present": true, "first_three_bars_after_event": [ { "close": 4.25, "date": "2003-07-16", "volume": 212.125 }, { "close": 4.18, "date": "2003-07-17", "volume": 166.67 }, { "close": 3.79, "date": "2003-07-18", "volume": 0.0 } ], "last_three_bars_on_or_before_event": [ { "close": 7.02, "date": "2003-07-11", "volume": 30.304 }, { "close": 7.76, "date": "2003-07-14", "volume": 136.366 }, { "close": 4.0, "date": "2003-07-15", "volume": 45.455 } ], "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:CDRUSD/year=2003/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "a86f27b65783b813076988f1dd5ac32036da57c6eeaccac238dc91ab7031e512" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "required_fragments": [ "our 2-for-1 stock split which occurred July 7, 2003", "All share and per share information set forth in this prospectus has been adjusted" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "our 2-for-1 stock split which occurred July 7, 2003", "All share and per share information set forth in this prospectus has been adjusted" ], "retrieved_sha256": "00a3e92fa6773d8f39a2b35415f121d89337a97277db45db0caf988138afcf10", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "CDR", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/761648/000095012303009594/y88871sv11.htm" }, { "conflict": "ISSUER_DATE_DOES_NOT_MATCH_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "ex_date": "2009-08-07 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1249603200000, "execution_authorized": false, "governance_route": "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_CONFLICT_OR_DATE_MISMATCH", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:DIAL1USD", "issuer_event_date": "2009-08-03", "issuer_ratio": 0.005, "market_boundary": { "boundary_available": true, "event_date_bar_present": true, "first_three_bars_after_event": [ { "close": 9.0, "date": "2009-08-10", "volume": 6500.0 }, { "close": 6.5, "date": "2009-08-11", "volume": 1000.0 }, { "close": 9.5, "date": "2009-08-12", "volume": 4400.0 } ], "last_three_bars_on_or_before_event": [ { "close": 0.04, "date": "2009-08-05", "volume": 0.0 }, { "close": 0.04, "date": "2009-08-06", "volume": 0.0 }, { "close": 6.0, "date": "2009-08-07", "volume": 1100.0 } ], "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:DIAL1USD/year=2009/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "066436177081be560f94b47ac6f68adcd6e9c23e5fceab9da5a0b6d5197c635a" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "required_fragments": [ "a two hundred to one (200:1) reverse stock split", "was approved and effective on August 3, 2009" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "a two hundred to one (200:1) reverse stock split", "was approved and effective on August 3, 2009" ], "retrieved_sha256": "07a6c08e80dd75b48912f09db36c31eb67e1b4e02eed2a426b9591c2fccbb303", "stored_ratio": 0.005, "ticker": "DIAL1", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/771950/000095012309035313/c89015e10vq.htm" }, { "conflict": "ISSUER_DATE_DOES_NOT_MATCH_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "ex_date": "2011-11-04 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1320364800000, "execution_authorized": false, "governance_route": "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_CONFLICT_OR_DATE_MISMATCH", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:GEVAUSD", "issuer_event_date": "2011-11-02", "issuer_ratio": 0.2, "market_boundary": { "boundary_available": true, "event_date_bar_present": true, "first_three_bars_after_event": [ { "close": 12.65, "date": "2011-11-07", "volume": 236787.0 }, { "close": 13.59, "date": "2011-11-08", "volume": 7298.0 }, { "close": 14.74, "date": "2011-11-09", "volume": 258656.0 } ], "last_three_bars_on_or_before_event": [ { "close": 15.35, "date": "2011-11-02", "volume": 3610.0 }, { "close": 15.35, "date": "2011-11-03", "volume": 0.0 }, { "close": 15.0, "date": "2011-11-04", "volume": 1142.0 } ], "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:GEVAUSD/year=2011/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "9dba9cf89d22a8999170ce0695ebebae0152b9a04179d6dad636f6e05255ebb7" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "required_fragments": [ "filed on November 2, 2011", "one-for-five reverse stock split", "each five shares of Trimeris common stock", "were automatically combined into and became one share" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "filed on November 2, 2011", "one-for-five reverse stock split", "each five shares of Trimeris common stock", "were automatically combined into and became one share" ], "retrieved_sha256": "4a15cf1732c445025c18dc5142d98544c21bc8820d3cc5958586ae3d31f29618", "stored_ratio": 0.2, "ticker": "GEVA", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/911326/000119312511294917/d251415d8k.htm" }, { "conflict": "ISSUER_ADS_TERMS_CONFLICT_WITH_FROZEN_STORED_RATIO", "ex_date": "2014-05-01 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1398902400000, "execution_authorized": false, "governance_route": "HARD_QUARANTINE_ISSUER_CONFLICT_OR_DATE_MISMATCH", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:MHGVYUSD", "issuer_ratio": 1.0, "issuer_terms_date": "2014-04-30", "market_boundary": { "boundary_available": true, "event_date_bar_present": true, "first_three_bars_after_event": [ { "close": 12.306, "date": "2014-05-02", "volume": 54400.0 }, { "close": 12.28, "date": "2014-05-05", "volume": 69800.0 }, { "close": 12.32, "date": "2014-05-06", "volume": 22100.0 } ], "last_three_bars_on_or_before_event": [ { "close": 12.16, "date": "2014-04-29", "volume": 28200.0 }, { "close": 12.51, "date": "2014-04-30", "volume": 99700.0 }, { "close": 12.59, "date": "2014-05-01", "volume": 55700.0 } ], "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:MHGVYUSD/year=2014/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "4b31dc130eccecdf50187cdb2f9661ba2fce7c9311e491f300927ad9de1f5a1c" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "required_fragments": [ "As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on April 30, 2014", "American Depositary Shares, each representing 1 ordinary share", "New York Stock Exchange" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "As 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It does not open returns, authorize another event, or pass the global split gate.", "content_hash": "sha256:855fdfd19c27b5cdb0250bec08fa9d443acd966c3c3b08a912d5891a0b596ce1", "decision": "ETS1_EXACT_REVERSE_SPLIT_ISSUER_VERIFIED", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "unresolved_context_content_hash": "sha256:c81c35a83c706cec7a8b4e4c9f22d1f0c874c26fe42c8a92ebdc0bc75c7b4d3f", "unresolved_context_path": "artifacts/audit/unresolved_split_event_context.json", "unresolved_context_sha256": "98304049af107814ec6b7798ff6ea91ab54e16c1f8801c202f1fbbd8d692b2c0" }, "required_next_action": "Merge only this exact instrument/date/stored-ratio tuple into the fail-closed policy.", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T05:56:46.344606+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-split-issuer-resolution-batch.v6", "verified_events": [ { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "event_semantics": "REVERSE_SPLIT_AT_FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_LEGAL_EFFECTIVE_DATE", "ex_date": "2005-10-31 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1130716800000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ETS1USD", "issuer_effective_date": "2005-10-28", "issuer_ratio": 0.125, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "EVENT_DATE_IS_FIRST_FROZEN_PRICE_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE", "event_close": 9.97, "event_date": "2005-10-31", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:ETS1USD/year=2005/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "a49a20ed4f6678447d95cb570cd19bd203512cb4a4eb7e33bfdbb92936624b20", "prior_close": 1.27, "prior_date": "2005-10-28" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 0.125, "required_fragments": [ "the Company's Board of Directors approved a 1-for-8 reverse stock split", "of the Company's outstanding shares of common stock", "the reverse stock split became effective on October 28, 2005", "issued shares were reverse split on a 1 for 8 basis" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "the Company's Board of Directors approved a 1-for-8 reverse stock split", "of the Company's outstanding shares of common stock", "the reverse stock split became effective on October 28, 2005", "issued shares were reverse split on a 1 for 8 basis" ], "retrieved_sha256": "de8a7ef87ea99caf7eedff0cb83e4ab59c4d9b25d776061ba89105b889ce6ebf", "stored_ratio": 0.125, "ticker": "ETS1", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/846909/000095013505006345/b57408ene10vq.htm" } ] }, "split_issuer_resolution_batch_v7": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This seal verifies six plain splits at their issuer-bound frozen bars: BNI, EPAC, GDW, HAFC, JAKK, and LNG. It does not open returns, authorize another event, or pass the global split gate.", "content_hash": "sha256:6342504521c9d41ce2e22eb7fd54273ba7db85ca46a3ab00a24557c52fa400da", "decision": "SIX_EXACT_ISSUER_SHARE_MUTATIONS_VERIFIED", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "unresolved_context_content_hash": "sha256:c81c35a83c706cec7a8b4e4c9f22d1f0c874c26fe42c8a92ebdc0bc75c7b4d3f", "unresolved_context_path": "artifacts/audit/unresolved_split_event_context.json", "unresolved_context_sha256": "98304049af107814ec6b7798ff6ea91ab54e16c1f8801c202f1fbbd8d692b2c0" }, "required_next_action": "Merge only these six exact instrument/date/stored-ratio tuples into the fail-closed policy.", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T06:15:31.487904+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-split-issuer-resolution-batch.v7", "verified_events": [ { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "ex_date": "1998-09-02 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 904694400000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:BNIUSD", "issuer_distribution_date": "1998-09-01", "issuer_ratio": 3.0, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_close": 29.615, "event_date": "1998-09-02", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:BNIUSD/year=1998/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "f1309e14f0841b2e03e2b5b099a3c44a7e5df910ab258e29d1feeb76b119f64e", "prior_close": 30.969, "prior_date": "1998-09-01" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 3.0, "required_fragments": [ "approved a three-for-one common stock split", "a stock dividend of two additional shares of BNSF common stock", "payable for each share outstanding or held in treasury on September 1, 1998" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "approved a three-for-one common stock split", "a stock dividend of two additional shares of BNSF common stock", "payable for each share outstanding or held in treasury on September 1, 1998" ], "retrieved_sha256": "a3961499cebc074396cc53b6c9890f0be976c025f24966d2211bb32069a2d9d6", "stored_ratio": 3.0, "ticker": "BNI", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/934612/000093461298000017/0000934612-98-000017.txt" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_EQUALS_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "ex_date": "1998-02-03 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 886464000000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:EPACUSD", "issuer_effective_date": "1998-02-03", "issuer_ratio": 2.0, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_EQUALS_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "event_close": 70.125, "event_date": "1998-02-03", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:EPACUSD/year=1998/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "105323a43b967eab112aa354388d27a344d568a4a1ae29ab5706aaaa4b73ac3a", "prior_close": 69.938, "prior_date": "1998-02-02" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 2.0, "required_fragments": [ "authorized a two-for-one stock split", "a 100 percent stock dividend", "shares of the Company's common stock were issued on February 3, 1998" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "authorized a two-for-one stock split", "a 100 percent stock dividend", "shares of the Company's common stock were issued on February 3, 1998" ], "retrieved_sha256": "e0a4906897eae84c2d53ab8baf2e9c116f16fe2f9f3b06d7de04ca3409778c37", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "EPAC", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/6955/000095013198002327/0000950131-98-002327.txt" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "ex_date": "1999-12-13 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 945043200000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:GDWUSD", "issuer_distribution_date": "1999-12-10", "issuer_ratio": 3.0, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_close": 31.25, "event_date": "1999-12-13", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:GDWUSD/year=1999/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "86d8061d20d5a2a5dc0e2f78ee1ca499a44e27d5e2dba754df4bf717acccba67", "prior_close": 32.062, "prior_date": "1999-12-10" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 3.0, "required_fragments": [ "a three-for-one split of its outstanding Common Stock", "in the form of a 200% stock dividend", "This dividend was payable December 10, 1999" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "a three-for-one split of its outstanding Common Stock", "in the form of a 200% stock dividend", "This dividend was payable December 10, 1999" ], "retrieved_sha256": "ccf062fd2ea6a9ea77787162c0bc85cf91e37dccc1f2ce393eef9723d0fbca10", "stored_ratio": 3.0, "ticker": "GDW", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/42293/000004229300000009/0000042293-00-000009.txt" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "ex_date": "2001-09-24 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1001289600000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:HAFCUSD", "issuer_distribution_date": "2001-09-21", "issuer_ratio": 1.5, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_close": 14.0, "event_date": "2001-09-24", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:HAFCUSD/year=2001/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "89420bf6777fdd8fe4c588578af7c520ccfcfe727cbb7c78e0acb1a11ee9a7c3", "prior_close": 20.0, "prior_date": "2001-09-21" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 1.5, "required_fragments": [ "the Company announced a three-for-two stock split", "one additional share of Hanmi Financial common stock for every two shares", "Distribution of additional shares issued as a result of the split occurred on September 21, 2001" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "the Company announced a three-for-two stock split", "one additional share of Hanmi Financial common stock for every two shares", "Distribution of additional shares issued as a result of the split occurred on September 21, 2001" ], "retrieved_sha256": "70f7e8cead0f4c1c71c1f352c9715e19f228ae160c1d5087d2c008e3f27ea7ff", "stored_ratio": 1.5, "ticker": "HAFC", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109242/000091205701539508/a2062901z10-q.htm" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "ex_date": "1999-11-05 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 941760000000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:JAKKUSD", "issuer_distribution_date": "1999-11-04", "issuer_ratio": 1.5, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_close": 23.875, "event_date": "1999-11-05", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:JAKKUSD/year=1999/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "72bc3cd02e3a410792191207f009787f3f13194925f7875b65ba8b80143fc082", "prior_close": 26.667, "prior_date": "1999-11-04" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 1.5, "required_fragments": [ "On November 4, 1999, we will distribute", "a dividend of 1/2 share of our common stock for each share", "cash will be paid in lieu of fractional shares" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "On November 4, 1999, we will distribute", "a dividend of 1/2 share of our common stock for each share", "cash will be paid in lieu of fractional shares" ], "retrieved_sha256": "3245b8fe1be17faa35a2b3d53563d487e3f35eeae259c76bf5979dfb69da89e9", "stored_ratio": 1.5, "ticker": "JAKK", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1009829/000095014899002339/0000950148-99-002339.txt" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_EQUALS_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "ex_date": "2000-10-18 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 971827200000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:LNGUSD", "issuer_effective_date": "2000-10-18", "issuer_ratio": 0.25, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_EQUALS_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "event_close": 2.13, "event_date": "2000-10-18", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:LNGUSD/year=2000/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "1fd3cc2faf5ef00a2e54cb0ca6d1fd76b904a292f1a7d3c2a0832e27a84608a8", "prior_close": 0.5, "prior_date": "2000-10-17" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 0.25, "required_fragments": [ "our stockholders approved a one-for-four reverse stock split", "The reverse stock split became effective on October 18, 2000", "reduced our issued and outstanding shares from 43,989,572 shares to 10,997,393" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "our stockholders approved a one-for-four reverse stock split", "The reverse stock split became effective on October 18, 2000", "reduced our issued and outstanding shares from 43,989,572 shares to 10,997,393" ], "retrieved_sha256": "f6b81accb3caebd7043abd5ee3c588f02adf6e509d404677a31eca039030cf50", "stored_ratio": 0.25, "ticker": "LNG", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/3570/000119312504049308/d10k.htm" } ] }, "split_issuer_resolution_batch_v8": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This seal verifies four plain split events for CRGN, ICIX, and OATS. It does not open returns, authorize another event, or pass the global split gate.", "content_hash": "sha256:e6885c1f1b355f5fb71f030a0edb9d21baf3a5bacd07de0ce99f38f0ea435a1c", "decision": "FOUR_EXACT_ISSUER_SHARE_MUTATIONS_VERIFIED", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "unresolved_context_content_hash": "sha256:c81c35a83c706cec7a8b4e4c9f22d1f0c874c26fe42c8a92ebdc0bc75c7b4d3f", "unresolved_context_path": "artifacts/audit/unresolved_split_event_context.json", "unresolved_context_sha256": "98304049af107814ec6b7798ff6ea91ab54e16c1f8801c202f1fbbd8d692b2c0" }, "required_next_action": "Merge only these four exact instrument/date/stored-ratio tuples into the fail-closed policy. Keep ALLR1 quarantined because its filing does not bind the vendor event date.", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T06:30:26.598068+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-split-issuer-resolution-batch.v8", "verified_events": [ { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_id": "CRGN_2000", "ex_date": "2000-03-31 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 954460800000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CRGNUSD", "issuer_distribution_date": "2000-03-30", "issuer_ratio": 2.0, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_close": 46.75, "event_date": "2000-03-31", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:CRGNUSD/year=2000/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "5563361ed1491c3262a79a5f6c48f86db2e99cd119b029aa6c37131e577e562f", "prior_close": 45.062, "prior_date": "2000-03-30" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 2.0, "required_fragments": [ "announced a two-for-one split on both our voting common stock", "On March 30, 2000, our stockholders of record received one additional share", "for every share of voting common stock" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "announced a two-for-one split on both our voting common stock", "On March 30, 2000, our stockholders of record received one additional share", "for every share of voting common stock" ], "retrieved_sha256": "8fc1a28d4f5ad1bf3e751f74454a9fb781f68234431e01644b40a7bac0909761", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "CRGN", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1030653/000092701600001788/0000927016-00-001788.txt" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_id": "OATS_1998", "ex_date": "1998-01-08 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 884217600000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:OATSUSD", "issuer_distribution_date": "1998-01-07", "issuer_ratio": 1.5, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_close": 15.25, "event_date": "1998-01-08", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:OATSUSD/year=1998/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "7f47d3aed8f3b29c7c2db9c81bfa21ecf8c6a44bc4537fafd61aabc059436b17", "prior_close": 15.333, "prior_date": "1998-01-07" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 1.5, "required_fragments": [ "On January 7, 1998, the Company effected a 3-for-2 stock split", "for securities held of record as of December 22, 1997" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "On January 7, 1998, the Company effected a 3-for-2 stock split", "for securities held of record as of December 22, 1997" ], "retrieved_sha256": "962efd962ba537324702f8752e6b2926fdcbf010a07cc363ecddb46f272a5cc1", "stored_ratio": 1.5, "ticker": "OATS", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/909990/000092735698000444/0000927356-98-000444.txt" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_id": "OATS_1999", "ex_date": "1999-12-02 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 944092800000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:OATSUSD", "issuer_distribution_date": "1999-12-01", "issuer_ratio": 1.5, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_close": 23.438, "event_date": "1999-12-02", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:OATSUSD/year=1999/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "db2966c1b0d032f1d9e68a77b7a81f6d83d5b07ae054af5af8d207dd1fa0a988", "prior_close": 23.25, "prior_date": "1999-12-01" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 1.5, "required_fragments": [ "on December 1, 1999, Wild Oats effected 3-for-2 stock splits", "November 17, 1999, respectively" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "on December 1, 1999, Wild Oats effected 3-for-2 stock splits", "November 17, 1999, respectively" ], "retrieved_sha256": "4a26d67a61e6ff666ccf1e17e0c8d0e4cf49ed4117df440dac60a8c8602c5eb2", "stored_ratio": 1.5, "ticker": "OATS", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/909990/000089973300000020/0000899733-00-000020.txt" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_id": "ICIX_1998", "ex_date": "1998-06-16 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 897955200000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:ICIXUSD", "issuer_distribution_date": "1998-06-15", "issuer_ratio": 2.0, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_close": 38.25, "event_date": "1998-06-16", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:ICIXUSD/year=1998/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "831010b7946dbb042a81a8f58d96b773f63314d23d30ecf788b63b72e0143526", "prior_close": 38.688, "prior_date": "1998-06-15" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 2.0, "required_fragments": [ "a two-for-one stock split of the Company's common stock on June 15, 1998", "paid in the form of a stock dividend", "to holders of record on June 1, 1998" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "a two-for-one stock split of the Company's common stock on June 15, 1998", "paid in the form of a stock dividend", "to holders of record on June 1, 1998" ], "retrieved_sha256": "7c95320a99f155954f8f51ff3c558c5cf2e0cc83b4b560a14342faa74d6a2588", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "ICIX", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/885067/000095014498009211/0000950144-98-009211.txt" } ] }, "split_issuer_resolution_batch_v9": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This seal verifies only UTI1's plain two-for-one split. It does not open returns, authorize another event, or pass the global split gate.", "content_hash": "sha256:4fd9b0d804c589bbf619ab89ed1146a57d8a6448911cc847da1bcdead781533a", "decision": "ONE_EXACT_ISSUER_SHARE_MUTATION_VERIFIED", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "unresolved_context_content_hash": "sha256:c81c35a83c706cec7a8b4e4c9f22d1f0c874c26fe42c8a92ebdc0bc75c7b4d3f", "unresolved_context_path": "artifacts/audit/unresolved_split_event_context.json", "unresolved_context_sha256": "98304049af107814ec6b7798ff6ea91ab54e16c1f8801c202f1fbbd8d692b2c0" }, "required_next_action": "Merge only the exact UTI1 instrument/date/stored-ratio tuple.", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T06:38:15.321435+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-split-issuer-resolution-batch.v9", "verified_events": [ { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_EQUALS_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "ex_date": "2000-10-03 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 970531200000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:UTI1USD", "issuer_effective_date": "2000-10-03", "issuer_ratio": 2.0, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_EQUALS_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "event_close": 23.562, "event_date": "2000-10-03", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:UTI1USD/year=2000/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "627e038f90291e79a8719aa78f8b51e0ee298994370a51b776ffa75b46a38150", "prior_close": 23.688, "prior_date": "2000-10-02" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 2.0, "required_fragments": [ "On September 14, 2000, UTI's Board of Directors authorized a two for one stock split", "The stock dividend was paid on October 3, 2000", "to stockholders of record on September 25, 2000" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "On September 14, 2000, UTI's Board of Directors authorized a two for one stock split", "The stock dividend was paid on October 3, 2000", "to stockholders of record on September 25, 2000" ], "retrieved_sha256": "7bda917fa5c8ef5843e4f0827917994e2782be0ed294af1766b77ca470b2b93c", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "UTI1", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/912899/000095012900005078/0000950129-00-005078.txt" } ] }, "split_issuer_resolution_batch_v10": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This seal verifies two McLeodUSA splits and the issuer-effective NCI1 split. It does not authorize NCI1's duplicate next-day event, open returns, or pass the global split gate.", "content_hash": "sha256:61f151501bd8c35b483517399632062aeea7e48938129ee6b91fbe373aa6bbf3", "decision": "THREE_EXACT_ISSUER_SHARE_MUTATIONS_VERIFIED", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "unresolved_context_content_hash": "sha256:c81c35a83c706cec7a8b4e4c9f22d1f0c874c26fe42c8a92ebdc0bc75c7b4d3f", "unresolved_context_path": "artifacts/audit/unresolved_split_event_context.json", "unresolved_context_sha256": "98304049af107814ec6b7798ff6ea91ab54e16c1f8801c202f1fbbd8d692b2c0" }, "required_next_action": "Merge only these three exact tuples. Keep NCI1 on 1998-04-02 quarantined as a duplicate issuer-date conflict.", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T06:44:25.730945+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-split-issuer-resolution-batch.v10", "verified_events": [ { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_id": "MCLDQ_1999", "ex_date": "1999-07-27 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 933033600000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:MCLDQUSD", "issuer_distribution_date": "1999-07-26", "issuer_ratio": 2.0, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_close": 9.625, "event_date": "1999-07-27", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:MCLDQUSD/year=1999/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "ba4b762827d8295e27844ab07b2060c8c7426a823fcbe28b92d89180a87067c5", "prior_close": 9.812, "prior_date": "1999-07-26" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 2.0, "required_fragments": [ "announced a two-for-one stock split in the form of a stock dividend", "the distribution of the additional shares took place on July 26, 1999", "The record date for the stock split was July 12, 1999" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "announced a two-for-one stock split in the form of a stock dividend", "the distribution of the additional shares took place on July 26, 1999", "The record date for the stock split was July 12, 1999" ], "retrieved_sha256": "7cf0e536306960fba2f2560376ba96b2158b07b35615a12e41fb25177f1de37d", "stored_ratio": 2.0, "ticker": "MCLDQ", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/919943/000092838599002618/0000928385-99-002618.txt" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_id": "MCLDQ_2000", "ex_date": "2000-04-25 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 956620800000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:MCLDQUSD", "issuer_distribution_date": "2000-04-24", "issuer_ratio": 3.0, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_close": 22.125, "event_date": "2000-04-25", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:MCLDQUSD/year=2000/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "8af87aceaac7dc2328272fbdf28c1d0de42ed5b2cf7f3f612eb300828a1eb203", "prior_close": 19.5, "prior_date": "2000-04-24" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 3.0, "required_fragments": [ "three-for-one stock split effected in the form of a stock dividend", "effective April 24, 2000" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "three-for-one stock split effected in the form of a stock dividend", "effective April 24, 2000" ], "retrieved_sha256": "d74f6e98ce38dbaf52170aae03cbe6d26af8f062f63965f0267f1d7e52873ca5", "stored_ratio": 3.0, "ticker": "MCLDQ", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/919943/000092838500001564/0000928385-00-001564.txt" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_EQUALS_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "event_id": "NCI1_1998", "ex_date": "1998-04-01 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 891388800000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:NCI1USD", "issuer_effective_date": "1998-04-01", "issuer_ratio": 1.5, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_EQUALS_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "event_close": 32.833, "event_date": "1998-04-01", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:NCI1USD/year=1998/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "c71cf2786b90a14aa460dba76f1f963d52a61898ab6660986a161e4c52aa7a35", "prior_close": 33.167, "prior_date": "1998-03-31" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 1.5, "required_fragments": [ "a 3-2 stock split being effected in the form of a stock dividend", "payable on or about April 1, 1998", "to the owners of record at the close of business on March 18, 1998" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "a 3-2 stock split being effected in the form of a stock dividend", "payable on or about April 1, 1998", "to the owners of record at the close of business on March 18, 1998" ], "retrieved_sha256": "9deaec8648f9c6efdb6c5634b21d4adcb4ea050d7d26a1551258f9b7a8bf9e29", "stored_ratio": 1.5, "ticker": "NCI1", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1019737/000095013198002261/0000950131-98-002261.txt" } ] }, "split_issuer_resolution_batch_v11": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This seal verifies the exact BYNDQ, NWKC, XCEDQ, CB, and CCIL share mutations. It does not authorize another event, open returns, or pass the global split gate.", "content_hash": "sha256:3fe329129db627a4fa26b3a6f51d75ddc70ac77d5857f788de68c399b08384ac", "decision": "FIVE_EXACT_ISSUER_SHARE_MUTATIONS_VERIFIED", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "unresolved_context_content_hash": "sha256:c81c35a83c706cec7a8b4e4c9f22d1f0c874c26fe42c8a92ebdc0bc75c7b4d3f", "unresolved_context_path": "artifacts/audit/unresolved_split_event_context.json", "unresolved_context_sha256": "98304049af107814ec6b7798ff6ea91ab54e16c1f8801c202f1fbbd8d692b2c0" }, "required_next_action": "Merge only these five exact instrument/date/stored-ratio tuples.", "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T06:50:30.524619+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-split-issuer-resolution-batch.v11", "verified_events": [ { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_EQUALS_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "event_id": "BYNDQ_2001", "ex_date": "2001-07-02 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 994032000000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:BYNDQUSD", "issuer_effective_date": "2001-07-02", "issuer_ratio": 0.06666666666666667, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_EQUALS_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "event_close": 2.14, "event_date": "2001-07-02", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:BYNDQUSD/year=2001/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "f12745500515fab0e3d3dff1863740ac10504827ed3444f2ba2ba417d5b88717", "prior_close": 0.2, "prior_date": "2001-06-29" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 0.06667, "required_fragments": [ "On July 2, 2001, the Company completed a reverse stock split", "fifteen shares of common stock outstanding were converted into one share" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "On July 2, 2001, the Company completed a reverse stock split", "fifteen shares of common stock outstanding were converted into one share" ], "retrieved_sha256": "68808f3f3829a76955f5882fd5f1207166ea640cf588f575147369e6c485fed8", "stored_ratio": 0.06667, "ticker": "BYNDQ", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1060531/000109581101504316/f74865e10-q.htm" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_EQUALS_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "event_id": "NWKC_2001", "ex_date": "2001-06-18 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 992822400000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:NWKCUSD", "issuer_effective_date": "2001-06-18", "issuer_ratio": 0.06666666666666667, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_EQUALS_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "event_close": 0.92, "event_date": "2001-06-18", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:NWKCUSD/year=2001/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "ddfe720856cc3ebfddfd119725bcb2815d10f7696cfff354d455448c0ec2a33c", "prior_close": 0.119, "prior_date": "2001-06-15" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 0.06667, "required_fragments": [ "completed a 1-for-15 reverse split of the Company's outstanding common stock", "effective and applied to shareholders of record immediately prior to the opening", "on Monday, June 18, 2001" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "completed a 1-for-15 reverse split of the Company's outstanding common stock", "effective and applied to shareholders of record immediately prior to the opening", "on Monday, June 18, 2001" ], "retrieved_sha256": "58fd6da978b19fafb1c081f3347064f0f731eb9459fcece8956bbb8e8e597335", "stored_ratio": 0.06667, "ticker": "NWKC", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1087879/000113724301500051/form10qnci.txt" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_EQUALS_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "event_id": "XCEDQ_2001", "ex_date": "2001-03-21 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 985132800000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:XCEDQUSD", "issuer_effective_date": "2001-03-21", "issuer_ratio": 0.1, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE_EQUALS_FROZEN_EVENT_DATE", "event_close": 0.594, "event_date": "2001-03-21", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:XCEDQUSD/year=2001/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "793ceb7f4e688385d10d15471985ab2df03a317e7f541b37fabc5abfeff9bde8", "prior_close": 0.156, "prior_date": "2001-03-20" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 0.1, "required_fragments": [ "approved a 10-for-1 reverse stock split of the Common Stock", "made effective March 21, 2001", "Fractional shares resulting from the reverse stock split were rounded up" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "approved a 10-for-1 reverse stock split of the Common Stock", "made effective March 21, 2001", "Fractional shares resulting from the reverse stock split were rounded up" ], "retrieved_sha256": "d13e3023bc0eacf7cff200120757fa2e06bc4f2c81d56d35e8328dc5d4456f47", "stored_ratio": 0.1, "ticker": "XCEDQ", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/721176/000091205701508952/a2045655z10-q.txt" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_id": "CB_1998", "ex_date": "1998-03-03 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 888883200000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CBUSD", "issuer_distribution_date": "1998-03-02", "issuer_ratio": 3.0, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_close": 32.438, "event_date": "1998-03-03", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:CBUSD/year=1998/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "2ddd904d6d972e848426333177c101af9868355fe7ad2e308cbd02bae2e9f4e5", "prior_close": 32.667, "prior_date": "1998-03-02" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 3.0, "required_fragments": [ "On March 2, 1998 the Company effected a three for one split", "Certificates representing the additional shares of stock were mailed on March 2", "All share and per share amounts have been restated" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "On March 2, 1998 the Company effected a three for one split", "Certificates representing the additional shares of stock were mailed on March 2", "All share and per share amounts have been restated" ], "retrieved_sha256": "a1f940e0049ec2379d90ef37feb861f4c6233e83163959c9bc24ec17cc2c78e8", "stored_ratio": 3.0, "ticker": "CB", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/896159/000090256198000175/0000902561-98-000175.txt" }, { "authorization": "BYPASS_PRICE_GAP_HEURISTIC_FOR_THIS_EXACT_EVENT_ONLY", "date_binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_id": "CCIL_1998", "ex_date": "1998-04-15 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 892598400000, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CCILUSD", "issuer_distribution_date": "1998-04-14", "issuer_ratio": 1.5, "market_date_binding": { "binding": "FIRST_FROZEN_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_DISTRIBUTION_DATE", "event_close": 47.5, "event_date": "1998-04-15", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:CCILUSD/year=1998/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "a11ebf8c5137d7fe436522138b3df5a4a2817fcd09ec7eba541f84dc62cf0689", "prior_close": 45.333, "prior_date": "1998-04-14" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio": 1.5, "required_fragments": [ "declared a 3-for-2 stock split by way of stock dividend", "The record date for this dividend is April 1, 1998", "the payment date is April 14, 1998" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "declared a 3-for-2 stock split by way of stock dividend", "The record date for this dividend is April 1, 1998", "the payment date is April 14, 1998" ], "retrieved_sha256": "9b4ce6d39c717a1a2e2ddd54dd98df16f699dd70bee35e29b4e3d9fdc652f6f4", "stored_ratio": 1.5, "ticker": "CCIL", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/870762/000087076298000021/0000870762-98-000021.txt" } ] }, "split_lifecycle_discontinuity_resolution": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "The issuer filings and frozen price sequence establish cancellation/restructuring boundaries involving new equity, aggregate allocations, and/or warrants. They do not validate the stored values as complete shareholder conversions, repair prices, authorize execution, or validate returns.", "content_hash": "sha256:af66b2190bc8aac83320d7ff7b8b540d57372698bd8a6d9cfde96f668d7f44dc", "decision": "SIX_SPLIT_LIKE_ROWS_RESOLVED_AS_NONEXECUTABLE_LIFECYCLE_BREAKS", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "unresolved_context_content_hash": "sha256:c81c35a83c706cec7a8b4e4c9f22d1f0c874c26fe42c8a92ebdc0bc75c7b4d3f", "unresolved_context_path": "artifacts/audit/unresolved_split_event_context.json", "unresolved_context_sha256": "98304049af107814ec6b7798ff6ea91ab54e16c1f8801c202f1fbbd8d692b2c0" }, "required_next_action": "Route these exact rows as non-executable lifecycle discontinuities. Any simulated position crossing an old-equity cancellation must abort; no stored ratio in this seal may be applied as a complete share conversion.", "resolved_events": [ { "event_semantics": "BANKRUPTCY_OLD_EQUITY_CANCELLATION_AND_NEW_EQUITY_RELISTING", "ex_date": "2016-12-27 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1482796800000, "execution_authorized": false, "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_ISSUER_VERIFIED_LIFECYCLE_DISCONTINUITY", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:BASXQUSD", "issuer_effective_date": "2016-12-23", "issuer_evidence": [ { "required_fragments": [ "On December 23, 2016 (the \u201cEffective Date\u201d)", "the Debtors emerged from their Chapter 11 Cases", "the \u201cOld Common Shares\u201d), and any rights of any holder in respect thereof, were deemed cancelled, discharged and of no force or effect" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "On December 23, 2016 (the \u201cEffective Date\u201d)", "the Debtors emerged from their Chapter 11 Cases", "the \u201cOld Common Shares\u201d), and any rights of any holder in respect thereof, were deemed cancelled, discharged and of no force or effect" ], "retrieved_sha256": "64429fc40e3732188943b47afcabdc78c02aa15b381d1221a4f88f4a616bc049", "role": "OLD_EQUITY_CANCELLATION_AND_EMERGENCE", "ticker": "BASXQ", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109189/000110918916000402/basic-form8xkforemergence.htm" }, { "required_fragments": [ "new common stock (CUSIP number 06985P 209)", "same as the symbol for existing shares", "Trading in the New Common Shares on the NYSE is expected to commence on Tuesday, December 27, 2016" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "new common stock (CUSIP number 06985P 209)", "same as the symbol for existing shares", "Trading in the New Common Shares on the NYSE is expected to commence on Tuesday, December 27, 2016" ], "retrieved_sha256": "2400e901a264cd6994f896cfb1f82ab4f92e8e0326c834b775517d2e7aacc312", "role": "NEW_EQUITY_FIRST_TRADING_DATE_AND_CUSIP", "ticker": "BASXQ", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1109189/000110918916000402/exh992201623pressrelease.htm" } ], "market_date_binding": { "binding": "EVENT_DATE_IS_FIRST_FROZEN_PRICE_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE", "event_close": 36.0, "event_date": "2016-12-27", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:BASXQUSD/year=2016/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "972cb8612ecf12db0d03724355b5e18624fb8da567ae39d4bddd9f9b3070a687", "prior_close": 0.45, "prior_date": "2016-12-23" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "source_row_deleted": false, "stored_ratio": 0.00175, "stored_ratio_semantics": "NOT_A_COMPLETE_OR_SUPPORTED_OLD_TO_NEW_SHAREHOLDER_CONVERSION", "ticker": "BASXQ" }, { "event_semantics": "BANKRUPTCY_OLD_EQUITY_CANCELLATION_AND_WARRANT_DISTRIBUTION", "ex_date": "2017-08-01 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1501545600000, "execution_authorized": false, "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_ISSUER_VERIFIED_LIFECYCLE_DISCONTINUITY", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:TDWUSD", "issuer_effective_date": "2017-07-31", "issuer_evidence": [ { "required_fragments": [ "On July 31, 2017 (the \u201cEffective Date\u201d)", "outstanding shares of the Old Common Stock", "were deemed cancelled, discharged and of no further force or effect", "Series A Warrants\u201d and the \u201cSeries B Warrants", "on a pro rata basis to all pre-emergence holders" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "On July 31, 2017 (the \u201cEffective Date\u201d)", "outstanding shares of the Old Common Stock", "were deemed cancelled, discharged and of no further force or effect", "Series A Warrants\u201d and the \u201cSeries B Warrants", "on a pro rata basis to all pre-emergence holders" ], "retrieved_sha256": "d709c581980175390723d5795b97f9d1ca3c08781ae1b9633ffed4dfb0d66c9d", "role": "OLD_EQUITY_CANCELLATION_AND_WARRANT_DISTRIBUTION", "ticker": "TDW", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/98222/000119312517242513/d431632d8k.htm" }, { "required_fragments": [ "new common stock (CUSIP number 88642R 109)", "same NYSE ticker symbol \u201cTDW\u201d", "Trading in the New Common Stock on the NYSE is expected to commence on Tuesday, August 1, 2017" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "new common stock (CUSIP number 88642R 109)", "same NYSE ticker symbol \u201cTDW\u201d", "Trading in the New Common Stock on the NYSE is expected to commence on Tuesday, August 1, 2017" ], "retrieved_sha256": "d5305a4a743a707ed229bcbed4fcd19891e8ad86c1a884288cab02513aece4f2", "role": "NEW_EQUITY_FIRST_TRADING_DATE_AND_CUSIP", "ticker": "TDW", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/98222/000119312517242513/d431632dex992.htm" } ], "market_date_binding": { "binding": "EVENT_DATE_IS_FIRST_FROZEN_PRICE_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE", "event_close": 25.0, "event_date": "2017-08-01", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:TDWUSD/year=2017/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "85d9b7aba3abf14af0af9b54e77a4cae268c8e69055aaf2143241f896bc83246", "prior_close": 0.93, "prior_date": "2017-07-31" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "source_row_deleted": false, "stored_ratio": 0.031, "stored_ratio_semantics": "NOT_A_COMPLETE_OR_SUPPORTED_OLD_TO_NEW_SHAREHOLDER_CONVERSION", "ticker": "TDW" }, { "event_semantics": "BANKRUPTCY_OLD_EQUITY_CANCELLATION_AND_WARRANT_DISTRIBUTION", "ex_date": "2017-05-01 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1493596800000, "execution_authorized": false, "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_ISSUER_VERIFIED_LIFECYCLE_DISCONTINUITY", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CIVIUSD", "issuer_effective_date": "2017-04-28", "issuer_evidence": [ { "required_fragments": [ "On April 28, 2017 (the \u201cEffective Date\u201d)", "each share of the Company's common stock outstanding prior to the Effective Date", "was cancelled", "issuance of up to an aggregate of 1,650,510 warrants", "to former holders of Existing Equity Interests" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "On April 28, 2017 (the \u201cEffective Date\u201d)", "each share of the Company's common stock outstanding prior to the Effective Date", "was cancelled", "issuance of up to an aggregate of 1,650,510 warrants", "to former holders of Existing Equity Interests" ], "retrieved_sha256": "86ca99b9bac8ba41f5e5f946d9e3071498f10b1caf62ae7c6cc637945ad1c45a", "role": "OLD_EQUITY_CANCELLATION_AND_WARRANT_DISTRIBUTION", "ticker": "CIVI", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1509589/000095010317004047/dp75602_8k.htm" } ], "market_date_binding": { "binding": "EVENT_DATE_IS_FIRST_FROZEN_PRICE_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE", "event_close": 39.2, "event_date": "2017-05-01", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:CIVIUSD/year=2017/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "294e36e48dbf9e23a45d584ec85b9ac9f948551a1d7f2bb7090d72fedce69ded", "prior_close": 0.505, "prior_date": "2017-04-28" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "source_row_deleted": false, "stored_ratio": 0.00896, "stored_ratio_semantics": "NOT_A_COMPLETE_OR_SUPPORTED_OLD_TO_NEW_SHAREHOLDER_CONVERSION", "ticker": "CIVI" }, { "event_semantics": "BANKRUPTCY_OLD_EQUITY_CANCELLATION_NEW_SHARES_AND_WARRANTS", "ex_date": "2016-12-16 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1481846400000, "execution_authorized": false, "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_ISSUER_VERIFIED_LIFECYCLE_DISCONTINUITY", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:KEGXUSD", "issuer_effective_date": "2016-12-15", "issuer_evidence": [ { "required_fragments": [ "all previously issued and outstanding shares", "Pre-Effective Date Common Stock were cancelled", "issued two series of warrants to the former holders" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "all previously issued and outstanding shares", "Pre-Effective Date Common Stock were cancelled", "issued two series of warrants to the former holders" ], "retrieved_sha256": "b77725df71bb17f66d994718bccf2fdcbbbd7fd6e5665909ed6d1aef5c4b3e2b", "role": "OLD_EQUITY_CANCELLATION_AND_WARRANT_DISTRIBUTION", "ticker": "KEGX", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/318996/000119312516794624/d313262d8k.htm" }, { "required_fragments": [ "New Shares Issued to Equity Holders", "1,338,266", "trading in its common stock is expected to commence on December 16, 2016" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "New Shares Issued to Equity Holders", "1,338,266", "trading in its common stock is expected to commence on December 16, 2016" ], "retrieved_sha256": "96b7fbd11299adf5376ea4eb8941f94eb8a9c579b4a3723a8c0bf6258f610955", "role": "NEW_EQUITY_ALLOCATION_AND_FIRST_TRADING_DATE", "ticker": "KEGX", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/318996/000119312516794624/d313262dex991.htm" } ], "market_date_binding": { "binding": "EVENT_DATE_IS_FIRST_FROZEN_PRICE_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE", "event_close": 26.95, "event_date": "2016-12-16", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:KEGXUSD/year=2016/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "a1a5821ea418cfbb81acc6aa3bc3550952a531e15d1db25966b7e8052cda31be", "prior_close": 0.165, "prior_date": "2016-12-15" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "source_row_deleted": false, "stored_ratio": 0.005, "stored_ratio_semantics": "NOT_A_COMPLETE_OR_SUPPORTED_OLD_TO_NEW_SHAREHOLDER_CONVERSION", "ticker": "KEGX" }, { "event_semantics": "BANKRUPTCY_AGGREGATE_OWNERSHIP_ALLOCATION_AND_WARRANT_DISTRIBUTION", "ex_date": "2014-10-16 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1413417600000, "execution_authorized": false, "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_ISSUER_VERIFIED_LIFECYCLE_DISCONTINUITY", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:EGLE2USD", "issuer_effective_date": "2014-10-15", "issuer_evidence": [ { "required_fragments": [ "On October 15, 2014 (the \u201cEffective Date\u201d)", "cancellation of all outstanding Equity Interests", "receiving (i) shares of New Eagle Common Stock equal to 0.5%", "an aggregate of 3,040,540 New Eagle Equity Warrants" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "On October 15, 2014 (the \u201cEffective Date\u201d)", "cancellation of all outstanding Equity Interests", "receiving (i) shares of New Eagle Common Stock equal to 0.5%", "an aggregate of 3,040,540 New Eagle Equity Warrants" ], "retrieved_sha256": "e6ecda53008a43294d7325ebeb04ce8293d38f993ce39769e5aad4be24c589c8", "role": "OLD_EQUITY_CANCELLATION_AGGREGATE_ALLOCATION_AND_WARRANTS", "ticker": "EGLE2", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1322439/000143774914018448/egle20141015_8k.htm" } ], "market_date_binding": { "binding": "EVENT_DATE_IS_FIRST_FROZEN_PRICE_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE", "event_close": 15.8, "event_date": "2014-10-16", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:EGLE2USD/year=2014/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "a1d627fbef5bf74147dc5cc4c8d393ef3f66cff0b820789063fdd76c19cdf6b7", "prior_close": 0.68, "prior_date": "2014-10-15" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "source_row_deleted": false, "stored_ratio": 0.005, "stored_ratio_semantics": "NOT_A_COMPLETE_OR_SUPPORTED_OLD_TO_NEW_SHAREHOLDER_CONVERSION", "ticker": "EGLE2" }, { "event_semantics": "BANKRUPTCY_OLD_SECURITIES_EXCHANGED_FOR_NEW_EQUITY_AND_WARRANTS", "ex_date": "2002-03-20 04:00:00+04:00", "ex_date_ms": 1016582400000, "execution_authorized": false, "governance_route": "NON_EXECUTABLE_ISSUER_VERIFIED_LIFECYCLE_DISCONTINUITY", "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:CQBUSD", "issuer_effective_date": "2002-03-19", "issuer_evidence": [ { "required_fragments": [ "On March 19, 2002, CBII completed its previously announced financial restructuring", "became effective March 19, 2002", "Previously outstanding preferred, preference and common stock is being exchanged for 2% of the New Common Stock", "7-year warrants", "trading in such shares on the New York Stock Exchange will not commence until March 20, 2002" ], "required_fragments_verified": [ "On March 19, 2002, CBII completed its previously announced financial restructuring", "became effective March 19, 2002", "Previously outstanding preferred, preference and common stock is being exchanged for 2% of the New Common Stock", "7-year warrants", "trading in such shares on the New York Stock Exchange will not commence until March 20, 2002" ], "retrieved_sha256": "7af8bdcec1bfcde8c87a7659cbe1ef738288b0998b00607fd82c1f2cb52dd7de", "role": "OLD_SECURITIES_EXCHANGE_NEW_EQUITY_AND_WARRANTS", "ticker": "CQB", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/101063/000102140802003831/d10k.txt" } ], "market_date_binding": { "binding": "EVENT_DATE_IS_FIRST_FROZEN_PRICE_BAR_AFTER_ISSUER_EFFECTIVE_DATE", "event_close": 14.99, "event_date": "2002-03-20", "price_partition_path": "data/corrections/corporate_action_basis_48fcfde04e3c_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar/ohlcv_1d/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:CQBUSD/year=2002/data.parquet", "price_partition_sha256": "f62165f1db5eb8226d846e250846413aaf3dc9f59f6fea6e3bef8303f0a02ea1", "prior_close": 0.71, "prior_date": "2002-03-19" }, "prior_context_classification": "PLAIN_SPLIT_WITHOUT_LIFECYCLE_CONTEXT", "ratio_repair_authorized": false, "source_row_deleted": false, "stored_ratio": 0.071, "stored_ratio_semantics": "NOT_A_COMPLETE_OR_SUPPORTED_OLD_TO_NEW_SHAREHOLDER_CONVERSION", "ticker": "CQB" } ], "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T07:00:22.805372+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-split-lifecycle-discontinuity-resolution.v2" }, "next_sleeve_selection": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This selects the next feasibility candidate using source reachability and mechanism criteria only. It makes no edge, sign, Sharpe, drawdown, correlation, capacity, or sleeve-admission claim and spends zero return hypotheses.", "comparisons": { "active_ownership_escalation": "Selected: 15.75 years held, all machine gates pass, 48 independent blind labels remain.", "repurchase_issuance_flow": "Not selected: 60 blind labels remain and the identity is explicitly classified as same-family/distinct-measurement, so it does not count toward ten new sleeves.", "tender_offer_spread": "Not selected: held history, but its frozen human ceiling is unmeasured and parser repair is not authorized.", "untouched_atlas": "Not selected: the reachability screen finds no untouched family currently unlocked by engineering." }, "content_hash": "sha256:95774658bfa03e7801a976c58786eeee240d83df53b9954477ac229ba8570437", "decision": "ACTIVE_OWNERSHIP_SELECTED_PENDING_GENUINE_INDEPENDENT_BLIND_AUDIT", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "artifacts/analysis/atlas_reachability_screen/result.json": "0b9c754f68aca79dd4d2b00fa96276985f0290fa470a286709e4f08684068387", "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3/result.json": "6443ae40f358330bf9ca4512d09aebc834b962385de703483a2c2f2e795901c5", "artifacts/labeling/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3_blind/manifest.json": "76b4ce7abc1d1292083c1add4d5e46b8ef180b44a5184ee1931270b75b81bed9", "artifacts/labeling/repurchase_item703_blind/manifest.json": "0d2dd40534221c312217b839e859e5c5caecd48b7e625f6ea828f199489ff415", "config/sleeve_discovery.json": "ad1979533293e5eea12c2d7be4c68d00f0f0bbf9badd81b98716cde50dfeea70" }, "required_next_action": "Give the frozen 48-document packet to a reviewer independent of parser development. Do not run classifier scoring, returns, correlation, or capacity until the completed labels and signed independence attestation pass the existing importer.", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-next-sleeve-selection.v1", "selected_candidate": { "asset_class": "US equities", "blind_labels_completed": 0, "blind_labels_required": 48, "history_years": 15.75, "id": "active_ownership_escalation", "machine_gates_passed": true, "mechanism": "New Schedule 13D control-intent ownership followed by specific governance, board, capital-allocation or strategic action", "return_trial_authorized": false }, "selection_rule": [ "Must represent a distinct economic mechanism from the four current sleeves.", "Must be eligible to count toward the ten-new-sleeve objective.", "Must have at least three years of point-in-time source history already held.", "Must have passed its frozen machine extraction gates before any return access.", "The smallest remaining evidence gap wins; no return statistic may enter ranking." ] }, "active_ownership_blind_handoff_receipt": { "archive": "artifacts/handoffs/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3_blind.tar.gz", "archive_bytes": 108919, "archive_sha256": "4ec6a3fc54fd1d667ecb004d7f384acf4ba7548ba38314c2206eb63cb4317b16", "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "The archive is ready for a genuinely independent source review. It contains no machine predictions or return data and does not itself provide accuracy evidence.", "content_hash": "sha256:2ec9a131cdd325aa2ba812e1df88b869a72cfbab10b5c37d1119959653133960", "decision": "EXTERNAL_BLIND_REVIEW_PACKET_READY_LABELS_NOT_COMPLETED", "documents": 48, "files": 54, "hypotheses_spent": 0, "labels_completed": 0, "packet_manifest_content_hash": "sha256:98a1c738a1476ad1079e1746e656295e6602e70dc198752290fd9924340c0a42", "prediction_blind": true, "public_archive_path": "/glassbox/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3_blind.tar.gz", "required_return_files": [ "completed_labels.csv", "completed_attestation.json" ], "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-active-ownership-external-review-handoff.v1" }, "hdb_dividend_vendor_resolution": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "bound_due_bill_record": { "cusip": "40415F101", "due_bill_off_date": "2025-08-11", "due_bill_on_date": "2025-06-26", "ex_date": "2025-08-11", "foreign": true, "id": "e8152c16-910e-41a5-bbc8-d2f340b177a0", "payable_date": "2025-08-20", "process_date": "2025-08-20", "rate": 0.641432, "record_date": "2025-06-26", "special": false, "symbol": "HDB" }, "claim_boundary": "This GET-only vendor audit identifies the Sharadar June-26 zero row as a due-bill administrative date associated with a separate positive August-11 HDB ADS dividend. It authorizes only an explicit versioned quarantine of that exact zero row. It does not rewrite the frozen lake, backdate vendor knowledge, replace Sharadar's positive cash event, open returns, spend a hypothesis, or validate performance.", "content_hash": "sha256:c30b02bf34aa40b2974c5b1c3623363a601e826b866c335714c8b5b909247775", "decision": "VERSIONED_ZERO_MARKER_QUARANTINE_AUTHORIZED", "gates": { "actual_cash_dividend_is_a_separate_positive_event": true, "automatic_cash_amount_imputation_permitted": false, "historical_vendor_creation_time_established": false, "original_lake_mutation_permitted": false, "retrieval_time_is_conservative_knowable_at": true, "versioned_exact_row_quarantine_permitted": true, "zero_row_date_is_not_vendor_ex_date": true, "zero_row_date_matches_vendor_due_bill_on_date": true }, "hypotheses_spent": 0, "resolution": { "actual_vendor_ex_date": "2025-08-11", "actual_vendor_net_cash_usd_per_ads": 0.641432, "conservative_knowable_at": "2026-08-22T23:57:55.466625+00:00", "matching_vendor_semantic": "due_bill_on_date", "repair_action": "In a new versioned lake, remove only the exact zero-cash June-26 row from the executable action set as a due-bill administrative marker. Preserve the frozen source lake and its hashes. Do not alter or replace Sharadar's separate positive August-11 dividend and do not inject Alpaca's rate into the Sharadar series.", "sharadar_zero_row": { "cash_amount": 0.0, "instrument_id": "XUSE:CASH:HDBUSD", "source_date": "2025-06-26" } }, "retrieved_at": "2026-08-22T23:57:55.466625+00:00", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-hdb-dividend-vendor-resolution.v1", "source": { "creation_time_guaranteed_by_provider": false, "credentials_published": false, "documentation": "https://docs.alpaca.markets/us/reference/corporateactions-1", "endpoint": "https://data.alpaca.markets/v1/corporate-actions", "provider": "Alpaca Market Data corporate-actions API", "provider_warning": "Alpaca documents that corporate-action creation time is not guaranteed and records may be delayed by upstream receipt or processing.", "query": { "data_quality": "all", "end": "2025-09-30", "region": "all", "start": "2025-06-01", "symbols": "HDB", "types": "cash_dividend" } }, "status": "READY_FOR_VERSIONED_DATA_REPAIR_NO_AMOUNT_IMPUTATION", "vendor_rows": [ { "cusip": "40415F101", "ex_date": "2025-07-31", "foreign": true, "id": "5d4c5fbb-e648-4b1a-8bb8-423e907bf5d3", "payable_date": "2025-08-20", "process_date": "2025-08-20", "rate": 0.130325, "record_date": "2025-07-31", "special": false, "symbol": "HDB" }, { "cusip": "40415F101", "ex_date": "2025-07-31", "foreign": false, "id": "e6d9f79c-b302-4f4a-b262-f20ef0bff7e9", "payable_date": "2025-07-31", "process_date": "2025-07-31", "rate": 0.174097, "record_date": "2025-07-31", "special": true, "symbol": "HDB" }, { "cusip": "40415F101", "due_bill_off_date": "2025-08-11", "due_bill_on_date": "2025-06-26", "ex_date": "2025-08-11", "foreign": true, "id": "e8152c16-910e-41a5-bbc8-d2f340b177a0", "payable_date": "2025-08-20", "process_date": "2025-08-20", "rate": 0.641432, "record_date": "2025-06-26", "special": false, "symbol": "HDB" } ] }, "sharadar_hdb_corrected_lake": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "base_lake": "data/lake_sharadar", "claim_boundary": "This artifact proves a new physical Sharadar lake version differs only by explicit quarantine of the exact HDB zero-cash due-bill marker. The frozen source is preserved, no amount is imputed, no return data is opened, and no hypothesis is spent. It does not claim that a replay will reproduce, validate a strategy, or improve Sharpe.", "content_hash": "sha256:8dec4dac90c0f2646ac09f2dfcbb26f5bd500c8fcb8c2bcda795113f7a46f9a8", "corrected_lake": "data/corrections/hdb_zero_marker_c30b02bf34aa_materialized_v1/data/lake_sharadar", "correction": { "cash_amount_imputed": false, "corrected_partition_sha256": "sha256:cef369aea9a45d859bb32c2c99d437ebb620889afafefdc4ac08a0ca5c45f0e6", "other_rows_changed": false, "partition": "corporate_actions/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:HDBUSD/year=2025/data.parquet", "rows_after": 3, "rows_before": 4, "rows_quarantined": 1, "source_partition_sha256": "sha256:a4985291c6eb3bbafd3f2e3df513dd5b98b11185914f746db04305475921de17" }, "decision": "VERSIONED_LAKE_READY_FOR_EXACT_REPLAY", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "invariants": { "exactly_one_zero_marker_quarantined": true, "logical_preregistration_path_preserved": true, "original_partition_preserved_by_hash": true, "physical_version_is_content_addressed": true, "positive_august_11_dividend_preserved": true }, "lineage": { "corporate_action_bytes": 171208695, "corporate_action_files": 48833, "corrected_corporate_actions_root": "sha256:51e79666067d46e5f679aff9867ddd4a7e6cd8ff150da2b583d5713537e32ea9", "hardlink_materialized_immutable_datasets": [ "fundamentals", "ohlcv_1d", "universe_membership" ], "vendor_resolution_content_hash": "sha256:c30b02bf34aa40b2974c5b1c3623363a601e826b866c335714c8b5b909247775", "vendor_resolution_path": "artifacts/audit/hdb_dividend_vendor_resolution.json", "vendor_resolution_sha256": "sha256:3a88d804448b6316e548e226fe05a1d58e70de14b1cf2a927a800873e3ca7e6e", "zero_dividend_audit_path": "artifacts/audit/sharadar_zero_dividend.json", "zero_dividend_audit_sha256": "sha256:f2ffe310185266c9609983dc9f5f889605d716676637556ecd6d1719d36ba2ca" }, "preregistration_logical_suffix": "data/lake_sharadar", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-sharadar-versioned-hdb-repair.v1" }, "operating_margin_replay_infrastructure_failure": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This records a physical data-layout failure before signal or return computation. It is not a strategy trial, does not alter the immutable operating-margin KILL, and supplies no Sharpe, drawdown, capacity, diversification, or sleeve claim.", "content_hash": "sha256:ee1d8dceefd4ca158678b9f243545297ef2574dc39971a84a94af4848af86b7d", "decision": "FAILED_BEFORE_SIMULATION_VERSIONED_LAKE_LAYOUT_UNREADABLE", "evidence": { "failed_lake_manifest": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "base_lake": "data/lake_sharadar", "claim_boundary": "This artifact proves a new physical Sharadar lake version differs only by explicit quarantine of the exact HDB zero-cash due-bill marker. The frozen source is preserved, no amount is imputed, no return data is opened, and no hypothesis is spent. It does not claim that a replay will reproduce, validate a strategy, or improve Sharpe.", "content_hash": "sha256:f969ee5cb74173b7cbd1e2d139534ec1be9588f98908ba9a667cede0dbe970c7", "corrected_lake": "data/corrections/hdb_zero_marker_c30b02bf34aa/data/lake_sharadar", "correction": { "cash_amount_imputed": false, "corrected_partition_sha256": "sha256:cef369aea9a45d859bb32c2c99d437ebb620889afafefdc4ac08a0ca5c45f0e6", "other_rows_changed": false, "partition": "corporate_actions/instrument_id=XUSE:CASH:HDBUSD/year=2025/data.parquet", "rows_after": 3, "rows_before": 4, "rows_quarantined": 1, "source_partition_sha256": "sha256:a4985291c6eb3bbafd3f2e3df513dd5b98b11185914f746db04305475921de17" }, "decision": "VERSIONED_LAKE_READY_FOR_EXACT_REPLAY", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "invariants": { "exactly_one_zero_marker_quarantined": true, "logical_preregistration_path_preserved": true, "original_partition_preserved_by_hash": true, "physical_version_is_content_addressed": true, "positive_august_11_dividend_preserved": true }, "lineage": { "corporate_action_bytes": 171208695, "corporate_action_files": 48833, "corrected_corporate_actions_root": "sha256:51e79666067d46e5f679aff9867ddd4a7e6cd8ff150da2b583d5713537e32ea9", "shared_immutable_datasets": [ "fundamentals", "ohlcv_1d", "universe_membership" ], "vendor_resolution_content_hash": "sha256:c30b02bf34aa40b2974c5b1c3623363a601e826b866c335714c8b5b909247775", "vendor_resolution_path": "artifacts/audit/hdb_dividend_vendor_resolution.json", "vendor_resolution_sha256": "sha256:3a88d804448b6316e548e226fe05a1d58e70de14b1cf2a927a800873e3ca7e6e", "zero_dividend_audit_path": "artifacts/audit/sharadar_zero_dividend.json", "zero_dividend_audit_sha256": "sha256:f2ffe310185266c9609983dc9f5f889605d716676637556ecd6d1719d36ba2ca" }, "preregistration_logical_suffix": "data/lake_sharadar", "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-sharadar-versioned-hdb-repair.v1" }, "failed_lake_manifest_path": "artifacts/audit/sharadar_hdb_corrected_lake.json", "failed_lake_manifest_sha256": "sha256:78b358c057a0ed09573f9cea425e37cde7121333289d20d546cd064713d25302", "preserved_failed_lake_manifest_path": "artifacts/probe/fundamental_single_replays/e5f48adc25065ce9/replay_infrastructure_failure_lake_manifest.json", "preserved_failed_lake_manifest_sha256": "sha256:78b358c057a0ed09573f9cea425e37cde7121333289d20d546cd064713d25302", "preserved_replay_environment_path": "artifacts/probe/fundamental_single_replays/e5f48adc25065ce9/replay_infrastructure_failure_environment.json", "preserved_replay_environment_sha256": "sha256:41d7823713fa5fccbe9371fe433404be59d83d139be78b83aab31c2eee3ffb77", "replay_environment_path": "artifacts/probe/fundamental_single_replays/e5f48adc25065ce9/replay_environment.json", "replay_environment_sha256": "sha256:41d7823713fa5fccbe9371fe433404be59d83d139be78b83aab31c2eee3ffb77" }, "failure": { "exception_message": "no universe members overlap the window [946684800000, 1780272000000)", "exception_type": "ValueError", "root_cause": "UniverseStore.glob does not traverse a top-level symlinked universe_membership dataset directory.", "stage": "SignalService._panel universe membership load", "symlinked_datasets": [ "fundamentals", "ohlcv_1d", "universe_membership" ], "universe_rows_visible": 0 }, "hypotheses_spent": 0, "hypothesis_key": "e5f48adc25065ce9", "required_next_action": "Build a new physical lake version with real dataset directories and hard-linked leaves, verify non-empty universe overlap before replay, preserve this failed version, and launch at most one replacement replay.", "return_frame_created": false, "run_name": "single_operating_margin", "schema": "canli.alphac-replay-infrastructure-failure.v1", "status": "INFRASTRUCTURE_FAILURE_NO_STRATEGY_RESULT" }, "cftc_release_reachability": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This is a reachability audit over metadata only. It assumes the best possible exact coverage for the 13 months CFTC says are available, opens no position columns, prices or returns, and makes no claim about sign, edge, Sharpe, drawdown or diversification.", "content_hash": "sha256:e35a0a19e19298bd194fb57d509ae423a7c5956460325d06f4fc3fa028d5d919", "decision": "UNREACHABLE_AS_PREREGISTERED", "family": "cftc_hedging_pressure", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "aliases": [ "cot_positioning" ], "classification": "RETIRED_KILLED", "events_sha256": "sha256:8dcc786360279c0448c9600f4d7e7bf4f120a64fa3bbcd4b525ab6d44b7843a8", "evidence": [ "public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:cot_positioning" ], "feasibility_sha256": "sha256:7d4eb8d0c4993a892dcff924247d2da78e94b7deec521a2289de0882930e7299", "lineage_registry_sha256": "sha256:568f184a42fa815725b7e8fcb48ec701564f1ed9cfd6d991fcc5ea5d379d3ecf" }, "measured_ceiling": { "available_window_cutoff": "2025-07-11", "ceiling_assumption": "Best case: every observation in the most recent 13 months can be matched to an exact release timestamp; no older observation can.", "date_weighted_exact_lineage_ceiling": 0.05413105413105413, "dates_in_best_case_available_window": 57, "first_report_date": "2006-06-13", "last_report_date": "2026-08-11", "row_weighted_exact_lineage_ceiling": 0.08368540255667589, "rows_in_best_case_available_window": 15371, "shortfall_to_required_rate": 0.8663145974433241, "total_distinct_report_dates": 1053, "total_rows": 183676 }, "official_record_constraint": { "available_release_history_months": 13, "historical_release_date_list_exists": false, "holiday_and_disruption_exceptions_exist": true, "normal_release_rule": "Friday 15:30 US Eastern for prior Tuesday data", "retrieved_on": "2026-08-22", "source": "https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/index.htm", "special_announcement_source": "https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/HistoricalSpecialAnnouncements/index.htm" }, "protocol_gate": { "name": "exact_historical_release_lineage", "observed_verified_rate": 0.0, "required_rate": 0.95 }, "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-cftc-release-reachability.v1", "verdict": "HISTORICAL_RELEASE_LINEAGE_CEILING_BELOW_GATE", "work_authorization": { "build_fixed_contract_mapping_now": false, "permitted_future_branch": "Only a preregistered identity redesign with a conservative availability rule and a documented distinction from the killed COT campaign. It would be a new trial family, not completion of this protocol.", "reason": "A contract map cannot rescue an independently unreachable release-lineage gate, and the mechanism is already classified as a retired killed lineage." } }, "bond_etf_nav_reachability": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This classifies ownership of four failed source gates. It does not claim that paid data will pass them, opens no market records or returns, and makes no signal, Sharpe, drawdown, diversification, capacity, or admission claim.", "content_hash": "sha256:37857d9dc6183b924a80a1c3872135dc276d844b95aef999387f15a5bfb9a4da", "decision": "PUBLIC_ENGINEERING_CANNOT_CLOSE_LOCKED_GATES", "engineering_reachability": { "next_action": "Owner spending/contract decision for archival issuer holdings, evaluated bond prices, TRACE transactions, and synchronized ETF quote/trade history. Collection still does not authorize returns.", "parser_or_crawler_can_create_missing_history": false, "public_metadata_can_replace_executable_quotes_and_trades": false, "public_pages_can_retroactively_supply_point_in_time_snapshots": false }, "family": "bond_etf_nav_dislocation", "hypotheses_spent": 0, "lineage": { "issuer_manifest_sha256": "3c50bc07711b6bbc53a29fe92d731b4a24f34349ddaa2a9f9f4ede85e45ead42", "protocol_sha256": "b93f6cdb6dda1fe97f7cfcf76cb367246b1683e937aff2d160b665ddbb903da3", "source_path": "artifacts/feasibility/bond_etf_nav_dislocation/result.json", "source_probe_manifest_sha256": "de7dcf570662c67c0505badd2d37e1a6521c3abb328ee1fb8193fd803a601676", "source_sha256": "sha256:3c736ef66baa20c01202faf9b9d129457f6b36892e574a7684f1fa847efc2a73" }, "locked_gate_owners": { "constituent_valuation_timestamps": "evaluated_price_vendor", "issuer_premium_discount_history": "issuer_or_archival_vendor", "monthly_point_in_time_holdings": "issuer_or_archival_vendor", "synchronized_etf_and_bond_execution": "ETF_and_TRACE_market_data_vendors" }, "market_records_opened": 0, "measured_public_record": { "funds": { "HYG": { "coverage_shortfall": 0.8809546539379475, "first_available": "2025-01-02", "historical_holdings_snapshots": 1, "holdings_shortfall": 119, "observed_coverage": 0.09904534606205251, "required_historical_holdings_snapshots": 120 }, "LQD": { "coverage_shortfall": 0.8809546539379475, "first_available": "2025-01-02", "historical_holdings_snapshots": 1, "holdings_shortfall": 119, "observed_coverage": 0.09904534606205251, "required_historical_holdings_snapshots": 120 } }, "required_issuer_session_coverage": 0.98 }, "return_data_opened": false, "schema": "canli.alphac-bond-etf-nav-reachability.v1", "verdict": "PAID_ARCHIVAL_AND_EXECUTABLE_DATA_REQUIRED" }, "atlas_reachability_screen": { "by_verdict": { "HELD_BUT_REACHABILITY_CEILING_NOT_MEASURED": [ "tender_offer_spread" ], "HELD_MACHINE_GATES_PASS_HUMAN_ACCURACY_REQUIRED": [ "active_ownership_escalation" ], "HISTORY_TOO_SHORT_FOR_THE_ADMISSION_CONTRACT": [ "dealer_gamma_pressure" ], "NO_POINT_IN_TIME_RECORD_WAS_EVER_PRESERVED": [ "crypto_liquidation_pressure" ], "RECORD_HELD_BUT_IDENTITY_REDESIGN_REQUIRED": [ "merger_arbitrage" ], "RECORD_OBTAINABLE_BUT_THE_MARKS_ARE_NOT_EXECUTABLE": [ "catastrophe_bond_event_risk", "freight_derivative_dislocation" ], "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION": [ "analyst_revision_drift", "carbon_allowance_carry", "credit_equity_relative_value", "cross_currency_basis", "fallen_angel_flow", "fx_option_risk_reversal", "index_reconstitution_flow", "inflation_breakeven_relative_value", "mortgage_convexity_pressure", "municipal_taxable_basis", "securities_lending_supply", "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "swap_spread_dislocation" ] }, "claim_boundary": "Screens obtainability only. Opens no return data, registers no hypothesis identity, runs no backtest, and claims nothing about any family's edge, sign, correlation or capacity. 0 trials.", "contract": { "minimum_history_years": 3.0, "minimum_oos_observations": 756, "trading_days_per_year": 252, "why_it_is_decisive": "A candidate's return series cannot be longer than the source that produces it. A source with less history than this cannot supply an admissible sleeve however good the idea, so the arithmetic is applied BEFORE any judgement about the idea." }, "families": [ { "best_source": "EDGAR", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": true, "family": "tender_offer_spread", "history_basis": "MEASURED from data/raw/sec_active_ownership_13d/indexes/*.idx.gz", "history_years": 15.75, "how_to_verify": null, "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": true, "notes": [], "obtainability_evidence_status": "MEASURED_FROM_RELATED_ARTIFACT", "reason": "The parser failed three machine gates, but the 30-document frozen accuracy set has zero completed labels. The perfect-detector ceiling is therefore unmeasured and parser repair is not yet authorized.", "related_artifact": "artifacts/analysis/tender_offer_reachability/result.json", "required_record": "SC TO and recommendation documents by acceptance time", "verdict": "HELD_BUT_REACHABILITY_CEILING_NOT_MEASURED", "what_the_verdict_means": "The documents are held, but the frozen accuracy evidence needed to measure what a perfect detector could reach is incomplete. Parser work is not yet justified because the observed shortfall may be semantic rather than extractive." }, { "best_source": "EDGAR", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": true, "family": "active_ownership_escalation", "history_basis": "MEASURED from data/raw/sec_active_ownership_13d/indexes/*.idx.gz", "history_years": 15.75, "how_to_verify": null, "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": true, "notes": [ "Atlas id and feasibility id differ (active_ownership_escalation vs active_ownership_13d*). The link is a JUDGEMENT that they name the same mechanism." ], "obtainability_evidence_status": "MEASURED_FROM_RELATED_ARTIFACT", "reason": "The unchanged v3 corpus clears every machine extraction gate: 160/160 submissions and 150/160 Item 4 sections. Its frozen 48-document human accuracy audit remains 0/48 complete, so no classifier or return work is authorized.", "related_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/active_ownership_13d_item4_v3/result.json", "required_record": "13D and 13D/A state, and Item 4 language, at acceptance time", "verdict": "HELD_MACHINE_GATES_PASS_HUMAN_ACCURACY_REQUIRED", "what_the_verdict_means": "The held corpus clears its frozen machine extraction gates, but the hash-bound human accuracy audit is incomplete. No classifier, return preregistration or sleeve claim is authorized until that independent evidence is complete." }, { "best_source": "EDGAR", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "merger_arbitrage", "history_basis": "MEASURED from data/raw/sec_active_ownership_13d/indexes/*.idx.gz", "history_years": 15.75, "how_to_verify": null, "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": true, "notes": [], "obtainability_evidence_status": "MEASURED_FROM_RELATED_ARTIFACT", "reason": "Already screened, and the answer is not an extraction one: the 0.80 prior-8-K gate blends two filing populations that do not share the obligation it tests. Do not re-derive it here.", "related_artifact": "artifacts/analysis/reachability_harness/result.json", "required_record": "deal terms, amendments and outcomes as known at each date", "verdict": "RECORD_HELD_BUT_IDENTITY_REDESIGN_REQUIRED", "what_the_verdict_means": "The underlying record is held, but the measured gate does not describe one coherent population. Parser work cannot rescue it; a new identity and fresh preregistration are required before any further measurement." }, { "best_source": "I/B/E/S, FactSet or Visible Alpha estimate history", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "analyst_revision_drift", "history_basis": null, "history_years": null, "how_to_verify": "Ask any vendor for the as-of contributor detail and its restatement policy.", "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": null, "notes": [], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "The consensus is republished, not versioned: the freely available number is today's view of the past. Only a vendor's own archive preserves who said what and when, and those archives are themselves restated when brokers merge or are backfilled.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "contributor-level analyst estimates as they stood on each past date", "verdict": "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "what_the_verdict_means": "The record exists and is licensed. This is not an engineering question and it is not mine to answer \u2014 it is a spending decision with a number attached." }, { "best_source": "ICE settlement history plus the public EU transaction log", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "carbon_allowance_carry", "history_basis": null, "history_years": null, "how_to_verify": "Check the exchange's redistribution terms for settlement history.", "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": null, "notes": [], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "The registry leg is public. The curve leg \u2014 which is what a carry identity trades \u2014 is exchange settlement data and licensed.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "contract rules, registry state and the futures curve, point-in-time", "verdict": "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "what_the_verdict_means": "The record exists and is licensed. This is not an engineering question and it is not mine to answer \u2014 it is a spending decision with a number attached." }, { "best_source": "FINRA Enhanced Historical TRACE plus licensed bond reference data", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "credit_equity_relative_value", "history_basis": null, "history_years": null, "how_to_verify": "Recheck FINRA Historic Data Information and TRACE Data & Licensing for the current agreement, fee and identifier-licence terms.", "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": null, "notes": [ "Official source checked 2026-08-22: https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/trace/historic-academic-data and https://www.finra.org/filing-reporting/trace/data.", "The displayed capped feed is not substituted for the full historical record." ], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "The free FINRA portal exposes only limited per-security history and non-commercial display access. The research-grade Enhanced Historical TRACE files require a FINRA Historical Data Agreement and fees; CUSIP delivery requires a separate CUSIP licence. The full-size historical files repair dissemination caps, but they are a licensed product, and the point-in-time issuer-to-equity mapping and terms remain licensed reference data. This is an owner spending decision, not a key-free pipeline.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "point-in-time issuer mapping, bond prices and corporate actions", "verdict": "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "what_the_verdict_means": "The record exists and is licensed. This is not an engineering question and it is not mine to answer \u2014 it is a spending decision with a number attached." }, { "best_source": "an FX/rates vendor", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "cross_currency_basis", "history_basis": null, "history_years": null, "how_to_verify": "Check whether any free source carries forward points with a stable history.", "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": null, "notes": [], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "The basis is the residual of two curves. Spot is free; the forward points and the OIS curves that make the identity are not.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "FX forwards, OIS curves and fixings as of each date", "verdict": "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "what_the_verdict_means": "The record exists and is licensed. This is not an engineering question and it is not mine to answer \u2014 it is a spending decision with a number attached." }, { "best_source": "Moody's/S&P rating histories plus an index provider's eligibility rules", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "fallen_angel_flow", "history_basis": null, "history_years": null, "how_to_verify": "Price a rating-history file and check the index rulebook's licence.", "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": null, "notes": [], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "Both legs are licensed, and the second leg has the same publication restriction as index_reconstitution_flow.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "rating action timestamps and index eligibility at each rebalance", "verdict": "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "what_the_verdict_means": "The record exists and is licensed. This is not an engineering question and it is not mine to answer \u2014 it is a spending decision with a number attached." }, { "best_source": "an OTC FX options vendor", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "fx_option_risk_reversal", "history_basis": null, "history_years": null, "how_to_verify": "Ask a vendor whether the historical surface is composite or executable.", "marks_are_indicative": true, "meets_contract_history": null, "notes": [], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "OTC surfaces are composed from dealer contributions. Beyond the licence, the quotes are indicative \u2014 a composite is not an executable price.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "FX option surfaces, forwards and calendars, point-in-time", "verdict": "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "what_the_verdict_means": "The record exists and is licensed. This is not an engineering question and it is not mine to answer \u2014 it is a spending decision with a number attached." }, { "best_source": "S&P, FTSE Russell or MSCI index services", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "index_reconstitution_flow", "history_basis": null, "history_years": null, "how_to_verify": "Obtain a written quote and licence schedule covering point-in-time history, research use, and publication of derived aggregate and security-level results.", "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": null, "notes": [ "Official source checked 2026-08-23: MSCI's public review archive lists recent additions/deletions, while its Constituent Event History and Index Deep History products describe licensed historical security-level records.", "https://www.msci.com/eqb/gimi/stdindex/index_review.html", "https://www.msci.com/downloads/web/msci-com/indexes/data-model/MSCI-Constituent-Event-History-Factsheet.pdf", "https://dataexplorer.msci.com/ui/products/DM_Index_Deep_History", "S&P and FTSE Russell likewise separate public announcements/methodologies from licensed constituent, corporate-action or detailed review files.", "https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/about-us/data-index-licensing/", "https://www.lseg.com/en/ftse-russell/index-data-tools", "No public page reviewed is treated as a legal conclusion about derived publication; the signed licence schedule is the controlling evidence." ], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "Recent additions/deletions and review calendars are publicly posted, but the research-grade historical constituent/event record, float factors and weight vintages are index-provider products. The public pages do not establish permission to publish derived security-level research, so both data entitlement and publication rights must be settled before this family can enter feasibility.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "index announcements, float factors and weights as published on the day", "verdict": "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "what_the_verdict_means": "The record exists and is licensed. This is not an engineering question and it is not mine to answer \u2014 it is a spending decision with a number attached." }, { "best_source": "a security-level fixed-income or inflation-swap historical data vendor", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "inflation_breakeven_relative_value", "history_basis": "MEASURED from data/lake_macro_vintage/meta.json", "history_years": 23.63, "how_to_verify": "Price and inspect a lawful point-in-time security-level nominal/TIPS or inflation-swap history including executable quotes, cashflows, index ratios and financing.", "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": true, "notes": [ "The no-return feasibility audit supersedes the earlier broad 'already held' claim. It spends zero return hypotheses and authorises no edge, sign or sleeve claim." ], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "The held FRED 5Y/10Y constant-maturity series support signal-source depth, not an executable return identity. The atlas's 2Y leg is absent; historical signal vintages are not preserved; and the repo has no security-level prices, quotes, cashflows, index ratios, financing inputs or inflation-swap history. A complete historical record therefore requires licensed data.", "related_artifact": "artifacts/feasibility/inflation_breakeven_relative_value/result.json", "required_record": "matched nominal/TIPS securities or inflation swaps, cashflows, index ratios, executable quotes, financing, CPI vintages and carry, point-in-time", "verdict": "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "what_the_verdict_means": "The record exists and is licensed. This is not an engineering question and it is not mine to answer \u2014 it is a spending decision with a number attached." }, { "best_source": "eMBS, Bloomberg or a dealer analytics feed", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "mortgage_convexity_pressure", "history_basis": null, "history_years": null, "how_to_verify": "Price one pool-level history feed.", "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": null, "notes": [], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "Pool-level history and prepayment models are licensed products with no public analogue.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "pool-level mortgage universe, durations and the rate surface, point-in-time", "verdict": "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "what_the_verdict_means": "The record exists and is licensed. This is not an engineering question and it is not mine to answer \u2014 it is a spending decision with a number attached." }, { "best_source": "MSRB Historical Transaction Data plus licensed municipal reference data", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "municipal_taxable_basis", "history_basis": null, "history_years": null, "how_to_verify": "Recheck the MSRB Trade Data Subscriptions page and Historical Data Layout for current prices, agreement terms and fields.", "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": null, "notes": [ "Official source checked 2026-08-22: https://www.msrb.org/Market-Data-and-Research/Trade-Data-Subscriptions.", "Free EMMA search access is not treated as a bulk point-in-time research feed." ], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "EMMA makes security-by-security transaction information public, but the reproducible bulk Historical Transaction Data Product is sold per twelve-month collection under an agreement. It carries trade fields, not the complete call schedules and tax-status history the basis calculation needs; those reference fields remain licensed. This is an owner spending decision, not a key-free pipeline.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "MSRB trade prints, call schedules, tax status and reference data", "verdict": "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "what_the_verdict_means": "The record exists and is licensed. This is not an engineering question and it is not mine to answer \u2014 it is a spending decision with a number attached." }, { "best_source": "S&P Global Securities Finance or DataLend", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "securities_lending_supply", "history_basis": "MEASURED from data/lake_shortint/settlement_date=*.parquet", "history_years": 8.54, "how_to_verify": "Price one securities-finance feed with daily history.", "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": true, "notes": [ "The held proxy is the trap: it is available, it correlates, and it is not the variable. A screen that reported 'we have short interest' would have passed a family whose mechanism we cannot price." ], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "The identity is priced off the FEE. This repo holds FINRA short interest, which is a different quantity \u2014 the size of the position, not its cost \u2014 and substituting it would be measuring something the identity does not name.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "historical borrow fee, availability, locates and recalls per name per day", "verdict": "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "what_the_verdict_means": "The record exists and is licensed. This is not an engineering question and it is not mine to answer \u2014 it is a spending decision with a number attached." }, { "best_source": "a credit-derivatives vendor", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "history_basis": null, "history_years": null, "how_to_verify": "Price a sovereign CDS history file.", "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": null, "notes": [], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "Sovereign CDS history is licensed with no public analogue at curve granularity.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "sovereign CDS curves, NDF/FX and credit events, point-in-time", "verdict": "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "what_the_verdict_means": "The record exists and is licensed. This is not an engineering question and it is not mine to answer \u2014 it is a spending decision with a number attached." }, { "best_source": "a rates vendor; the free H.15 swap series was discontinued", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "swap_spread_dislocation", "history_basis": "MEASURED from data/lake_macro_vintage/meta.json", "history_years": 64.63, "how_to_verify": "Check H.15 for a swap series with observations after its discontinuation.", "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": true, "notes": [], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "The Treasury leg is held from 1962. The swap leg is not: the free constant-maturity swap series stopped publishing, so the post-discontinuation curve is vendor-only. Half an identity is not an identity.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "swap curve, deliverable Treasuries and funding, as of each date", "verdict": "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "what_the_verdict_means": "The record exists and is licensed. This is not an engineering question and it is not mine to answer \u2014 it is a spending decision with a number attached." }, { "best_source": "Alpaca expired-contract chain (held route) or OPRA history (vendor)", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "dealer_gamma_pressure", "history_basis": "scripts/ingest_options_chain.py (verified there, not re-run here)", "history_years": 2.5, "how_to_verify": "Re-run the contract enumeration for a 2019 expiry and see whether it returns rows.", "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": false, "notes": [ "This entry exists because a wrong 'impossible' was published here once already: the chain was called unreconstructable on a query missing one parameter. The screen records the corrected route AND its length rather than either error." ], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "The free route exists and is documented in this repo: expired contracts ARE enumerable with status=inactive and their daily bars retrievable. Its coverage begins around 2024, which the contract arithmetic below then rules on.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "open interest, trades and the option surface as they stood on each date", "verdict": "HISTORY_TOO_SHORT_FOR_THE_ADMISSION_CONTRACT", "what_the_verdict_means": "The best source offers less history than the admission contract's minimum observations. The family cannot produce an admissible sleeve today no matter how good the idea is. It becomes screenable only by waiting, or by buying history." }, { "best_source": "broker indication sheets", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "catastrophe_bond_event_risk", "history_basis": null, "history_years": null, "how_to_verify": "Compare indication sheets against actual secondary trade confirmations.", "marks_are_indicative": true, "meets_contract_history": null, "notes": [], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "Secondary marks are weekly broker indications on a thin market. The triggers and event notices are obtainable; the prices to trade against are not.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "trigger definitions, event notices and executable secondary marks", "verdict": "RECORD_OBTAINABLE_BUT_THE_MARKS_ARE_NOT_EXECUTABLE", "what_the_verdict_means": "The prices are assessed, indicated or broker-quoted rather than transacted. A backtest on them measures a price nobody could have traded, which is a more expensive kind of wrong than a null: it produces a number, and the number is not about trading." }, { "best_source": "Baltic Exchange assessments", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "freight_derivative_dislocation", "history_basis": null, "history_years": null, "how_to_verify": "Compare a month of assessments against cleared FFA settlement prices and see how far apart they are.", "marks_are_indicative": true, "meets_contract_history": null, "notes": [], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "The route rates are ASSESSED by a reporting panel, not transacted. A backtest on them measures a panel's opinion of a rate. The licence is the smaller problem.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "route assessments, contract terms and quotes, point-in-time", "verdict": "RECORD_OBTAINABLE_BUT_THE_MARKS_ARE_NOT_EXECUTABLE", "what_the_verdict_means": "The prices are assessed, indicated or broker-quoted rather than transacted. A backtest on them measures a price nobody could have traded, which is a more expensive kind of wrong than a null: it produces a number, and the number is not about trading." }, { "best_source": "exchange real-time streams (this repo already collects several venues)", "contract_minimum_years": 3.0, "extraction_gated": false, "family": "crypto_liquidation_pressure", "history_basis": "MEASURED from data/lake/funding/*/year=*", "history_years": 6.0, "how_to_verify": "Query each collected venue for liquidations older than its rolling window and see whether anything comes back.", "marks_are_indicative": false, "meets_contract_history": true, "notes": [ "The one family here where the collector we already run is the answer \u2014 but only starting now. The contract's minimum is therefore a WAIT, and the wait is the finding." ], "obtainability_evidence_status": "JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN", "reason": "The venues publish forced liquidations as a real-time stream and, at most, a short rolling window. The historical event record was never archived by the venue, so it cannot be bought or scraped after the fact \u2014 only collected forward from today.", "related_artifact": null, "required_record": "forced-liquidation events, trades and book snapshots, historically", "verdict": "NO_POINT_IN_TIME_RECORD_WAS_EVER_PRESERVED", "what_the_verdict_means": "The as-of state was never archived \u2014 only the current or restated version survives. No amount of money or engineering recovers it. Forward collection from today is the only route, which means the clock starts now and the contract's minimum sets the wait." } ], "families_screened": 20, "headline": "0 of 20 untouched families are blocked on engineering. The other 20 require a measured reachability ceiling, a human accuracy audit, identity redesign, vendor spend, more history, a point-in-time record that was never preserved, or executable marks \u2014 none is currently unlocked by parser work.", "ranking": [ "OBTAINABLE_FROM_DATA_THIS_REPO_ALREADY_HOLDS", "OBTAINABLE_PUBLICLY_NEEDS_A_NEW_PIPELINE", "HELD_BUT_BLOCKED_ON_EXTRACTION_QUALITY", "HELD_BUT_REACHABILITY_CEILING_NOT_MEASURED", "HELD_MACHINE_GATES_PASS_HUMAN_ACCURACY_REQUIRED", "RECORD_HELD_BUT_IDENTITY_REDESIGN_REQUIRED", "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION", "HISTORY_TOO_SHORT_FOR_THE_ADMISSION_CONTRACT", "RECORD_OBTAINABLE_BUT_THE_MARKS_ARE_NOT_EXECUTABLE", "NO_POINT_IN_TIME_RECORD_WAS_EVER_PRESERVED" ], "schema": "canli.alphac-atlas-reachability-screen.v1", "sources_held": { "crypto_perp_funding_multivenue": { "first": "2020", "last": "2026", "measured_from": "data/lake/funding/*/year=*", "partitions": 7, "span_years": 6.0 }, "deribit_option_snapshots": { "first": "2026-06-25", "last": "2026-08-22", "measured_from": "data/deribit/snapshots/snap_*.jsonl", "partitions": 13, "span_years": 0.16 }, "edgar_quarterly_indexes": { "first": "2010-01", "last": "2025-10", "measured_from": "data/raw/sec_active_ownership_13d/indexes/*.idx.gz", "partitions": 64, "span_years": 15.75 }, "finra_short_interest": { "first": "2017-12-29", "last": "2026-07-15", "measured_from": "data/lake_shortint/settlement_date=*.parquet", "partitions": 206, "span_years": 8.54 }, "fred_breakeven_10y": { "first": "2003-01-02", "last": "2026-08-21", "measured_from": "data/lake_macro_vintage/meta.json", "partitions": 5914, "span_years": 23.63 }, "fred_breakeven_5y": { "first": "2003-01-02", "last": "2026-08-21", "measured_from": "data/lake_macro_vintage/meta.json", "partitions": 5914, "span_years": 23.63 }, "fred_treasury_10y": { "first": "1962-01-02", "last": "2026-08-20", "measured_from": "data/lake_macro_vintage/meta.json", "partitions": 16144, "span_years": 64.63 } }, "verdict_meanings": { "HELD_BUT_BLOCKED_ON_EXTRACTION_QUALITY": "The documents are held and the shortfall is in reading them. C1's harness applies directly here: ask what a PERFECT detector would reach BEFORE writing a protocol.", "HELD_BUT_REACHABILITY_CEILING_NOT_MEASURED": "The documents are held, but the frozen accuracy evidence needed to measure what a perfect detector could reach is incomplete. Parser work is not yet justified because the observed shortfall may be semantic rather than extractive.", "HELD_MACHINE_GATES_PASS_HUMAN_ACCURACY_REQUIRED": "The held corpus clears its frozen machine extraction gates, but the hash-bound human accuracy audit is incomplete. No classifier, return preregistration or sleeve claim is authorized until that independent evidence is complete.", "HISTORY_TOO_SHORT_FOR_THE_ADMISSION_CONTRACT": "The best source offers less history than the admission contract's minimum observations. The family cannot produce an admissible sleeve today no matter how good the idea is. It becomes screenable only by waiting, or by buying history.", "NO_POINT_IN_TIME_RECORD_WAS_EVER_PRESERVED": "The as-of state was never archived \u2014 only the current or restated version survives. No amount of money or engineering recovers it. Forward collection from today is the only route, which means the clock starts now and the contract's minimum sets the wait.", "OBTAINABLE_FROM_DATA_THIS_REPO_ALREADY_HOLDS": "The record this identity needs is already in this repo's lake, with enough history for the contract. Nothing has to be bought and no new pipeline has to be built.", "OBTAINABLE_PUBLICLY_NEEDS_A_NEW_PIPELINE": "The record exists and is public. The cost is engineering, which is the cheapest kind of blocker this programme has.", "RECORD_HELD_BUT_IDENTITY_REDESIGN_REQUIRED": "The underlying record is held, but the measured gate does not describe one coherent population. Parser work cannot rescue it; a new identity and fresh preregistration are required before any further measurement.", "RECORD_OBTAINABLE_BUT_THE_MARKS_ARE_NOT_EXECUTABLE": "The prices are assessed, indicated or broker-quoted rather than transacted. A backtest on them measures a price nobody could have traded, which is a more expensive kind of wrong than a null: it produces a number, and the number is not about trading.", "VENDOR_ONLY_AN_OWNER_SPENDING_DECISION": "The record exists and is licensed. This is not an engineering question and it is not mine to answer \u2014 it is a spending decision with a number attached." }, "what_is_judged": "Who holds a record this repo does NOT hold, and whether an as-of version of it was preserved at all. Every such row is stamped JUDGEMENT_NOT_VERIFIED_THIS_RUN and carries the concrete check that would settle it. None is presented as measured.", "what_is_measured": "The family list, derived from the atlas rather than listed. The contract minimum, read from the contract in force. The history of every source this repo holds, re-derived from the lake on this run. The verdict, computed from those." }, "orthogonality_prior": { "by_prior": { "LIKELY_CORRELATED_SHARES_A_FACTOR_WITH_A_LIVE_SLEEVE": [ "analyst_revision_drift", "carbon_allowance_carry", "catastrophe_bond_event_risk", "securities_lending_supply" ], "STRONGLY_ORTHOGONAL_DRIVEN_BY_SOMETHING_OTHER_THAN_PRICE": [ "index_reconstitution_flow" ], "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE": [ "credit_equity_relative_value", "cross_currency_basis", "crypto_liquidation_pressure", "dealer_gamma_pressure", "fallen_angel_flow", "freight_derivative_dislocation", "fx_option_risk_reversal", "mortgage_convexity_pressure", "municipal_taxable_basis", "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "swap_spread_dislocation" ] }, "claim_boundary": "A PRIOR, stated before measurement and labelled as such in every row. No candidate correlation is measured, no hypothesis identity is registered, no return data is opened and no candidate is authorised. Nothing here is evidence about any family's correlation; it is an ordering to be tested and, where wrong, published as wrong. 0 trials.", "families": [ { "crisis_direction": "NEUTRAL", "driver": "ORDER_FLOW", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "FLOW", "family": "index_reconstitution_flow", "notes": [ "The only family here that reaches the strongest prior, and it is also one of the licence-restricted ones. The most orthogonal thing left is the thing we may not be permitted to publish research on." ], "prior": "STRONGLY_ORTHOGONAL_DRIVEN_BY_SOMETHING_OTHER_THAN_PRICE", "reasoning": "The trade is against a mandated, pre-announced order flow. What creates the opportunity is a rulebook rather than a market state, so it shares neither a factor nor an event.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [], "shares_factor_with": [], "what_the_prior_means": "Shares no factor family and no crisis direction with any live sleeve, and what moves it is not a price. The strongest prior this rule can express, and still a prior." }, { "crisis_direction": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "driver": "PRICE", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "BASIS", "family": "credit_equity_relative_value", "notes": [], "prior": "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "A basis between two claims on one issuer. No shared factor, but the basis widens in exactly the liquidity event AlphaForge is short.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "shares_factor_with": [], "what_the_prior_means": "No shared factor, but it loses money in the same event as a live sleeve. Correlation measured over a calm window will understate it, and the window that would show it is the window nobody has enough of." }, { "crisis_direction": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "driver": "PRICE", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "BASIS", "family": "cross_currency_basis", "notes": [], "prior": "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "The canonical funding basis. It is a direct measure of dollar funding stress, which is the event AlphaForge's carry is short.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "shares_factor_with": [], "what_the_prior_means": "No shared factor, but it loses money in the same event as a live sleeve. Correlation measured over a calm window will understate it, and the window that would show it is the window nobody has enough of." }, { "crisis_direction": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "driver": "ORDER_FLOW", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "FLOW", "family": "crypto_liquidation_pressure", "notes": [ "Asset class is not in the rule, but here it compounds the crisis axis rather than standing in for it: same venues, same cascade, same hour." ], "prior": "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "Taking the other side of forced liquidations is liquidity provision at its most literal, in the same venues and the same cascades that set AlphaForge's funding.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "shares_factor_with": [], "what_the_prior_means": "No shared factor, but it loses money in the same event as a live sleeve. Correlation measured over a calm window will understate it, and the window that would show it is the window nobody has enough of." }, { "crisis_direction": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "driver": "ORDER_FLOW", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "FLOW", "family": "dealer_gamma_pressure", "notes": [], "prior": "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "Trading ahead of mechanical dealer hedging. The flow is predictable in calm and reverses violently in the tail, which is the liquidity event again.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "shares_factor_with": [], "what_the_prior_means": "No shared factor, but it loses money in the same event as a live sleeve. Correlation measured over a calm window will understate it, and the window that would show it is the window nobody has enough of." }, { "crisis_direction": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "driver": "ORDER_FLOW", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "FLOW", "family": "fallen_angel_flow", "notes": [], "prior": "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "The trade takes the other side of a forced, rule-driven sale. Liquidity provision by another name, and it is worst paid when it is most needed.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "shares_factor_with": [], "what_the_prior_means": "No shared factor, but it loses money in the same event as a live sleeve. Correlation measured over a calm window will understate it, and the window that would show it is the window nobody has enough of." }, { "crisis_direction": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "driver": "PHYSICAL", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "BASIS", "family": "freight_derivative_dislocation", "notes": [], "prior": "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "Paper against physical route economics. Physically driven, but the dislocation it harvests closes when someone can no longer fund the physical leg.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "shares_factor_with": [], "what_the_prior_means": "No shared factor, but it loses money in the same event as a live sleeve. Correlation measured over a calm window will understate it, and the window that would show it is the window nobody has enough of." }, { "crisis_direction": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "driver": "PRICE", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "VOL", "family": "fx_option_risk_reversal", "notes": [], "prior": "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "Selling the option risk premium, in whichever direction the skew pays. Short convexity, so it loses where AlphaTrend gains and where AlphaForge also loses.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "shares_factor_with": [], "what_the_prior_means": "No shared factor, but it loses money in the same event as a live sleeve. Correlation measured over a calm window will understate it, and the window that would show it is the window nobody has enough of." }, { "crisis_direction": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "driver": "ORDER_FLOW", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "FLOW", "family": "mortgage_convexity_pressure", "notes": [], "prior": "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "Hedging flow from negative convexity. The flow is the signal, and it is largest when rates gap, which is when liquidity is worst.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "shares_factor_with": [], "what_the_prior_means": "No shared factor, but it loses money in the same event as a live sleeve. Correlation measured over a calm window will understate it, and the window that would show it is the window nobody has enough of." }, { "crisis_direction": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "driver": "PRICE", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "BASIS", "family": "municipal_taxable_basis", "notes": [], "prior": "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "A tax-driven basis in a market whose bid disappears under stress.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "shares_factor_with": [], "what_the_prior_means": "No shared factor, but it loses money in the same event as a live sleeve. Correlation measured over a calm window will understate it, and the window that would show it is the window nobody has enough of." }, { "crisis_direction": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "driver": "PRICE", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "BASIS", "family": "sovereign_cds_fx_dislocation", "notes": [], "prior": "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "A basis between two expressions of one sovereign risk, and both legs gap together in the event that makes the basis interesting.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "shares_factor_with": [], "what_the_prior_means": "No shared factor, but it loses money in the same event as a live sleeve. Correlation measured over a calm window will understate it, and the window that would show it is the window nobody has enough of." }, { "crisis_direction": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "driver": "PRICE", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "BASIS", "family": "swap_spread_dislocation", "notes": [], "prior": "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "A basis between a swap and its deliverable, funded. Its historical blow-ups are funding events.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "shares_factor_with": [], "what_the_prior_means": "No shared factor, but it loses money in the same event as a live sleeve. Correlation measured over a calm window will understate it, and the window that would show it is the window nobody has enough of." }, { "crisis_direction": "DIRECTIONAL", "driver": "PRICE", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "MOMENTUM", "family": "analyst_revision_drift", "notes": [], "prior": "LIKELY_CORRELATED_SHARES_A_FACTOR_WITH_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "Revision drift and price momentum are the textbook overlapping pair: the revision is what the price is already drifting on. Shares AlphaMax's factor outright.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaMax", "AlphaVintage" ], "shares_factor_with": [ "AlphaMax", "AlphaTrend" ], "what_the_prior_means": "Trades the same idea as a live sleeve in different clothes. This is the one structural feature that produced a large measured correlation in this book." }, { "crisis_direction": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "driver": "PRICE", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "CARRY", "family": "carbon_allowance_carry", "notes": [ "The clearest illustration of why asset class is not in the rule: nothing about European carbon resembles crypto perpetuals, and the position is the same trade." ], "prior": "LIKELY_CORRELATED_SHARES_A_FACTOR_WITH_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "Named carry and structured as carry: paid to hold and store an allowance. Same factor as AlphaForge in a market that has no relation to crypto, which is exactly the case the asset-class intuition gets wrong.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "shares_factor_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "what_the_prior_means": "Trades the same idea as a live sleeve in different clothes. This is the one structural feature that produced a large measured correlation in this book." }, { "crisis_direction": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "driver": "PRICE", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "CARRY", "family": "catastrophe_bond_event_risk", "notes": [], "prior": "LIKELY_CORRELATED_SHARES_A_FACTOR_WITH_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "Paid a spread to bear a defined event. Structurally a carry, and the market's bid vanishes on exactly the event it is paid for.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "shares_factor_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "what_the_prior_means": "Trades the same idea as a live sleeve in different clothes. This is the one structural feature that produced a large measured correlation in this book." }, { "crisis_direction": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "driver": "PRICE", "evidence_status": "PRIOR_NOT_A_MEASUREMENT", "factor_family": "CARRY", "family": "securities_lending_supply", "notes": [ "Both axes fire at once \u2014 the strongest correlation warning in the set." ], "prior": "LIKELY_CORRELATED_SHARES_A_FACTOR_WITH_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "reasoning": "A borrow fee IS a carry: a recurring payment for holding a position that gaps when the borrow is recalled. Same factor as AlphaForge and the same crisis direction.", "shares_crisis_direction_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "shares_factor_with": [ "AlphaForge" ], "what_the_prior_means": "Trades the same idea as a live sleeve in different clothes. This is the one structural feature that produced a large measured correlation in this book." } ], "headline": "1 of 16 remaining families are structurally orthogonal to this book on the stated rule. 4 share a factor family with a live sleeve outright, and 11 lose money in the same event as the sleeve that carries this book's largest single source of return. Breadth measured in asset classes is not breadth.", "live_sleeves": { "AlphaForge": { "crisis": "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "factor": "CARRY", "mechanism": "crypto funding-rate carry" }, "AlphaMax": { "crisis": "DIRECTIONAL", "factor": "MOMENTUM", "mechanism": "US equity cross-sectional momentum" }, "AlphaTrend": { "crisis": "LONG_TAIL", "factor": "MOMENTUM", "mechanism": "multi-asset time-series momentum" }, "AlphaVintage": { "crisis": "DIRECTIONAL", "factor": "MACRO_SURPRISE", "mechanism": "PIT CPI-surprise equity size spread" } }, "measured_structure": { "n_days": 1061, "pairs": [ { "crisis_directions": [ "DIRECTIONAL", "LONG_TAIL" ], "factors": [ "MOMENTUM", "MOMENTUM" ], "pair": "AlphaMax|AlphaTrend", "resolved_at_95": true, "rho": 0.21002198225676125, "shares_factor_family": true, "standard_errors_from_zero": 6.93 }, { "crisis_directions": [ "DIRECTIONAL", "DIRECTIONAL" ], "factors": [ "MOMENTUM", "MACRO_SURPRISE" ], "pair": "AlphaMax|AlphaVintage", "resolved_at_95": true, "rho": -0.06216919926552442, "shares_factor_family": false, "standard_errors_from_zero": 2.02 }, { "crisis_directions": [ "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "DIRECTIONAL" ], "factors": [ "CARRY", "MACRO_SURPRISE" ], "pair": "AlphaForge|AlphaVintage", "resolved_at_95": false, "rho": 0.04554952785731474, "shares_factor_family": false, "standard_errors_from_zero": 1.48 }, { "crisis_directions": [ "LONG_TAIL", "DIRECTIONAL" ], "factors": [ "MOMENTUM", "MACRO_SURPRISE" ], "pair": "AlphaTrend|AlphaVintage", "resolved_at_95": false, "rho": -0.04426900904426509, "shares_factor_family": false, "standard_errors_from_zero": 1.44 }, { "crisis_directions": [ "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "LONG_TAIL" ], "factors": [ "CARRY", "MOMENTUM" ], "pair": "AlphaForge|AlphaTrend", "resolved_at_95": false, "rho": 0.02285646544202205, "shares_factor_family": false, "standard_errors_from_zero": 0.74 }, { "crisis_directions": [ "SHORT_LIQUIDITY", "DIRECTIONAL" ], "factors": [ "CARRY", "MOMENTUM" ], "pair": "AlphaForge|AlphaMax", "resolved_at_95": false, "rho": -0.015769890554217854, "shares_factor_family": false, "standard_errors_from_zero": 0.51 } ], "resolved_pairs": 2, "rho_bar": 0.026036646115348446, "standard_error_per_pair": 0.0307, "the_axis_with_no_local_evidence": "Crisis direction. This book holds one SHORT_LIQUIDITY sleeve, so no pair isolates it and nothing here tests it. It decides fourteen of the twenty rankings below, and that is the single weakest joint in this artifact.", "unresolved_pairs": 4, "what_it_cannot_support": "One informative pair per structural cell. That is a direction, not a coefficient, and any weighting fitted to it would be fitted to a single observation. The prior is published UNCALIBRATED.", "what_it_supports": "Of six pairs, two resolve against sampling error. The pair sharing a factor family is the largest correlation in the book; the pair sharing an asset class is negative. The four sharing neither are indistinguishable from zero.", "what_would_calibrate_it": "A book of eight sleeves gives twenty-eight pairs instead of six. Calibration is a consequence of breadth, not a route to it \u2014 which is the uncomfortable ordering: the prior is least testable exactly while it is most needed." }, "prior_meanings": { "LIKELY_CORRELATED_SHARES_A_FACTOR_WITH_A_LIVE_SLEEVE": "Trades the same idea as a live sleeve in different clothes. This is the one structural feature that produced a large measured correlation in this book.", "LIKELY_ORTHOGONAL_NO_SHARED_FACTOR_OR_CRISIS_DIRECTION": "Shares no factor family and no crisis direction, but is price-driven, so it inherits whatever the market inherits when everything moves together.", "STRONGLY_ORTHOGONAL_DRIVEN_BY_SOMETHING_OTHER_THAN_PRICE": "Shares no factor family and no crisis direction with any live sleeve, and what moves it is not a price. The strongest prior this rule can express, and still a prior.", "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE": "No shared factor, but it loses money in the same event as a live sleeve. Correlation measured over a calm window will understate it, and the window that would show it is the window nobody has enough of." }, "ranking": [ "STRONGLY_ORTHOGONAL_DRIVEN_BY_SOMETHING_OTHER_THAN_PRICE", "LIKELY_ORTHOGONAL_NO_SHARED_FACTOR_OR_CRISIS_DIRECTION", "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "LIKELY_CORRELATED_SHARES_A_FACTOR_WITH_A_LIVE_SLEEVE" ], "rho_bar_under_stress": { "measured": { "ALL": 0.026038361360768824, "CALM:S1_DRAWDOWN": 0.0344250450093976, "CALM:S2_TAIL": 0.02840908405179665, "STRESS:S1_DRAWDOWN": -0.10988131867480626, "STRESS:S2_TAIL": 0.04766146738901758 }, "note": "Published for the crisis axis it bears on and NOT used to score anything: the stress windows are predeclared but the book still holds one SHORT_LIQUIDITY sleeve, so these numbers describe the existing four rather than testing the axis." }, "schema": "canli.alphac-orthogonality-prior.v1", "the_rule": { "1_shares_a_factor_family_with_a_live_sleeve": "LIKELY_CORRELATED_SHARES_A_FACTOR_WITH_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "2_else_shares_a_crisis_direction_with_a_live_sleeve": "UNCERTAIN_SHARES_THE_CRISIS_DIRECTION_OF_A_LIVE_SLEEVE", "3_else_driven_by_something_other_than_price": "STRONGLY_ORTHOGONAL_DRIVEN_BY_SOMETHING_OTHER_THAN_PRICE", "4_else": "LIKELY_ORTHOGONAL_NO_SHARED_FACTOR_OR_CRISIS_DIRECTION", "asset_class_is_deliberately_absent": "The one measured pair sharing an asset class is NEGATIVE (-0.062) and the one sharing a factor family is the largest in the book (+0.210). Scoring asset class would encode the intuition the evidence contradicts. This is the most attackable choice here and it is stated first rather than buried.", "stated_before_scoring": true }, "what_the_ordering_is_for": { "candidate_average_correlation_gate": 0.0, "extends": "artifacts/analysis/breadth_acquisition/result.json, which reached the same conclusion against the superseded 0.15 gate.", "forward_sharpe_at_that_rho_bar_optimistic_haircut": 1.157, "forward_sharpe_at_the_objective_optimistic_haircut": 1.498, "in_sample_sharpe_at_that_rho_bar": 1.736, "in_sample_sharpe_at_the_objective": 2.247, "objective_rho_bar": -0.03, "pairs_new": 85, "pairs_now": 6, "required_average_over_the_new_pairs": -0.03396, "rho_bar_if_the_aggregate_new_edges_sit_at_the_incremental_boundary": 0.001717, "rho_bar_now": 0.026036646115348446, "sleeves_now": 4, "sleeves_target": 14, "the_gap": "The aggregate new edges landing exactly on the +0.00 incremental boundary gives a book average of +0.0017 and a forward Sharpe of 1.16 on this book's own optimistic haircut. The gate is necessary and it is not sufficient, and the shortfall is 0.34 of forward Sharpe. Ordering by expected orthogonality is the only lever that acts on the difference, because the incremental boundary cannot." } }, "mutation_ledger": { "claim_boundary": "Breaks what each guard watches and records whether the guard failed. Runs no backtest, opens no return data, registers no hypothesis identity, and changes nothing permanently \u2014 every mutation is restored and the restoration is verified by hash. 0 trials.", "coverage_is_derived": "The guard set is computed from tests/unit by the same rule every run, so a guard added without a mutation appears here rather than joining the unmutated majority unnoticed.", "findings": [], "guards_mutated": 48, "guards_not_yet_mutated": [], "guards_over_published_claims": 48, "ledger": [ { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_admission_significance_floors.py", "mutation": "raise the Newey-West t floor above what the deflated-Sharpe floor can reach", "notes": [ "The unsatisfiable-floors class: two gates that cannot both be met." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "config/sleeve_admission_contract.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_admission_contract_is_fully_enforced.py", "mutation": "add a threshold the evaluator does not read", "notes": [ "A threshold sitting in the contract wearing a gate's costume." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "config/sleeve_admission_contract.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_admission_frontier_arithmetic.py", "mutation": "move the published Sharpe target away from the correlation it requires", "notes": [ "First aimed at average_pairwise_correlation_objective, which this guard does not read: it watches the GATE and the target. A mutation that misses is indistinguishable from a guard that cannot fail, and that is the whole trap this ledger exists inside." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "config/sleeve_admission_contract.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_sleeve_admission.py", "mutation": "loosen the out-of-sample observation minimum", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "config/sleeve_admission_contract.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_published_gates_match_the_contract.py", "mutation": "change the contract the site derives its published gate summary from", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "config/sleeve_admission_contract.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_live_change_is_declared.py", "mutation": "corrupt the declared live-configuration fingerprint", "notes": [ "The ceremony that stopped a live sizing change contaminating the forward record." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "config/live_change_contract.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_published_clone_url.py", "mutation": "publish a clone URL for a repository that does not exist", "notes": [ "The defect that actually shipped, reproduced." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "/Users/arhancanli/meridian/scripts/build-verify.mjs" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_indexnow_is_in_the_deploy_path.py", "mutation": "stop the hourly deploy announcing what it published", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/live_deploy_hourly.sh" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_site_deploy_snapshot.py", "mutation": "deploy the landing site from the mutable working tree instead of the frozen snapshot", "notes": [ "The two-domain mixed-publication race, reproduced." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/live_deploy_hourly.sh" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_publish_pipeline_order.py", "mutation": "reorder the publish pipeline so a contract is copied before it is rebuilt", "notes": [ "The stale-artifact class: research_export copies whatever is on disk." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/live_publish.sh" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_published_chain_label_matches_the_data.py", "mutation": "label the chain's ENTRY count with the word days on the published page", "notes": [ "The count-is-not-a-duration defect, reproduced: this exact wording once overstated a 47-day chain as 371 days. First aimed at the chain FILE, which this guard does not read \u2014 it watches what the page calls the number." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "/Users/arhancanli/meridian/open.html" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_content_hashes_reproduce_publicly.py", "mutation": "edit a published artifact after it was hashed", "notes": [ "Exactly what the reproduce kit exists to detect, done from the inside." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "/Users/arhancanli/meridian/public/glassbox/kill_log.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_research_export_freshness.py", "mutation": "let a published contract go stale against its source", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "artifacts/engineering/lint_debt_contract.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_kill_papers_quote_their_artifact.py", "mutation": "make the generator print a figure the kill-log entry does not contain", "notes": [ "Two earlier attempts moved the kill log itself and were not caught, and that is CORRECT rather than a gap: this guard regenerates each paper from the entry, so moving the entry moves both sides together. What it actually watches is the GENERATOR, which is what research_export.py runs on every publish. The mutation therefore has to break the generator." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/build_kill_papers.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_published_sleeve_claims_track_artifacts.py", "mutation": "drop the KILLED disclosure from a sleeve whose artifact records that verdict", "notes": [ "Two earlier attempts moved NUMBERS in the artifacts; this guard watches DISCLOSURE LANGUAGE \u2014 that a killed sleeve is described as killed \u2014 so a number is the wrong thing to move." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/paper_trading_state.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_expanded_sleeve_paper_claims.py", "mutation": "move a published crypto-defensive Sharpe away from the family artifact", "notes": [ "The expanded papers quote artifact values directly; moving one artifact value without rewriting the manuscript must be caught." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "artifacts/research/crypto_defensive_family.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_alphavintage_target.py", "mutation": "double the live gross target this sleeve trades at", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/alphavintage_target.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_live_cycle_equity_guard.py", "mutation": "let non-equity instruments back into the equity target book", "notes": [ "The unscoped-universe defect that put perpetuals in an equity artifact." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/live_cycle.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_curve_store.py", "mutation": "change the curve transform away from the log basis every consumer assumes", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "src/alphaforge/analytics/curve_store.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_paper_broker_funding.py", "mutation": "stop the LIVE broker booking funding", "notes": [ "The carry sleeve booked funding zero times in 44 days once, because a TypeError was swallowed by a bare except and nine tests pinned the intention rather than the path." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "src/alphaforge/execution/paper.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "SURVIVED", "guard": "test_overlay_realized_leg_scale.py", "mutation": "NEGATIVE CONTROL: edit a comment and nothing else", "notes": [ "THE HARNESS'S NEGATIVE CONTROL. This edits a COMMENT and nothing else, so the guard must NOT fail. A mutation harness with no control looks perfect precisely when it is broken: if every run reports CAUGHT, the reason might be that the runner fails for reasons unrelated to the mutation." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "SURVIVED", "target": "src/alphaforge/portfolio/strategy.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_audit_sleeve_family_lineage.py", "mutation": "make the lineage audit return PASS unconditionally", "notes": [ "Two earlier attempts moved DATA; this guard runs the audit over fixtures, so it watches the audit's LOGIC. A gate that always passes is the thing to break." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/audit_sleeve_family_lineage.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_alpaca_broker_reconciliation_export.py", "mutation": "corrupt the persisted broker-reconciliation content hash", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "artifacts/engineering/alpaca_broker_reconciliation.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_atlas_reachability_screen.py", "mutation": "move the published minimum-history arithmetic away from the active contract", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "artifacts/analysis/atlas_reachability_screen/result.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_experiment_union.py", "mutation": "invert cross-profile identity deduplication", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "src/alphaforge/validation/experiments.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_forward_sleeve_contribution.py", "mutation": "corrupt the state hash bound into forward sleeve attribution", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "artifacts/engineering/forward_sleeve_contribution.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_forward_trial_ledger_gate.py", "mutation": "break the active contract binding used by the forward reservation gate", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "config/sleeve_admission_contract.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_glassbox_eia_kill.py", "mutation": "make the EIA kill renderer round correlation more coarsely than its guard", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/glassbox_export.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_glassbox_insider_kill.py", "mutation": "insert a false marker into the insider correlation sentence", "notes": [ "The prior same-size format-specifier mutation could reuse timestamp-based Python bytecode. This source-size-changing mutation proves the rendered sentence is read." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/glassbox_export.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_historical_curve_evidence.py", "mutation": "make the historical-curve index claim zero exact bindings", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "artifacts/research/historical_curve_evidence/index.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_identity_packet_recoverability.py", "mutation": "make the recoverability audit claim zero audited identities", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "artifacts/research/identity_packet_recoverability.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_identity_trial_packets.py", "mutation": "make the identity-packet index claim zero published packets", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "artifacts/research/trial_packets/index.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_legacy_research_epoch.py", "mutation": "change the sealed legacy identity count", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/seal_legacy_research_epoch.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_next_sleeve_selection.py", "mutation": "change the selected candidate after the blind selection was sealed", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/seal_next_sleeve_selection.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_track_record_provenance.py", "mutation": "remove the broker-derived provenance wording from the research export", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/research_export.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_transparency_payload_disclosure.py", "mutation": "change the public transparency-log schema on one host", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "/Users/arhancanli/meridian/public/glassbox/transparency_log.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_trial_packet_manifest.py", "mutation": "make the trial manifest claim zero published identity packets", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "artifacts/research/trial_packet_manifest.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_validate_forward_trial_reservation.py", "mutation": "break the active contract schema bound into prospective reservations", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "config/sleeve_admission_contract.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_public_support_artifact_sources.py", "mutation": "change one public support artifact away from its authoritative source", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "/Users/arhancanli/meridian/public/glassbox/alphavintage_corrected_result.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_publication_bundle_public_parity.py", "mutation": "change one public sleeve-bundle byte away from its authoritative source", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "/Users/arhancanli/meridian/public/publication/crypto-momentum/v0.1.0/paper.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_sleeve_publication_bundles.py", "mutation": "break a sleeve's evidence catalog binding to its recorded trial family", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "config/sleeve_publication_evidence.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_sleeve_publication_replay_verification.py", "mutation": "make the isolated frozen-dependency replay receipt claim its own audit failed", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "artifacts/audit/sleeve_publication_isolated_replay_verification.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_crypto_carry_portable_lake_readiness.py", "mutation": "make the sealed zero-return readiness receipt claim one return trial", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "artifacts/audit/crypto_carry_portable_lake_readiness.json" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_crypto_carry_portable_prerun_readiness.py", "mutation": "change the zero-return preregistration-readiness decision", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/audit_crypto_carry_portable_prerun_readiness.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_crypto_carry_portable_v1_result.py", "mutation": "change the sealed trial disposition away from incomplete", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/seal_crypto_carry_portable_v1_result.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_crypto_carry_portable_v1_run.py", "mutation": "change the reservation validator success status", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "src/alphaforge/validation/trial_reservation.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_wave1_data_rights.py", "mutation": "make the data-rights audit report raw vendor rows as released", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "scripts/audit_wave1_data_rights.py" }, { "as_expected": true, "expected": "CAUGHT", "guard": "test_alphavintage_full_decision_reproduction.py", "mutation": "restore an unsupported stale replay difference in the AlphaVintage manuscript", "notes": [], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "CAUGHT", "target": "docs/research/ALPHAVINTAGE_MACRO_SURPRISE_LINEAGE.md" } ], "negative_controls": [ { "as_expected": true, "expected": "SURVIVED", "guard": "test_overlay_realized_leg_scale.py", "mutation": "NEGATIVE CONTROL: edit a comment and nothing else", "notes": [ "THE HARNESS'S NEGATIVE CONTROL. This edits a COMMENT and nothing else, so the guard must NOT fail. A mutation harness with no control looks perfect precisely when it is broken: if every run reports CAUGHT, the reason might be that the runner fails for reasons unrelated to the mutation." ], "passes_clean": true, "restored_byte_identical": true, "result": "SURVIVED", "target": "src/alphaforge/portfolio/strategy.py" } ], "schema": "canli.alphac-mutation-ledger.v1", "why": "A check that cannot fail is worse than no check: it produces the confidence of a guard with none of the protection, and a passing test looks identical whether it is watching something or nothing." }, "guards_that_cannot_fire": { "claim_boundary": "A STRUCTURAL scan of source for checks that cannot fail. It reads code, not results: it cannot say whether a guard is correct, only whether it is capable of firing. Runs no backtest, opens no return data, registers no hypothesis. 0 trials.", "companion": "artifacts/engineering/mutation_ledger.json, which answers the behavioural half by breaking what each guard over a published claim watches.", "confirmed": [], "detectors_proven_on_a_planted_instance": { "B": true, "C": true, "D": true }, "files_scanned": 595, "refutations_are_kept": "A finding that turns out to be legitimate stays in this artifact as REFUTED with its reason. An audit that keeps only its hits cannot be checked by anybody who was not there when it ran.", "refuted": [], "schema": "canli.alphac-guards-that-cannot-fire.v1", "shapes": { "A": "a guard excluded from the environment meant to run it", "B": "an assertion inside a loop that can run zero times", "C": "an exemption naming a path that is not there", "D": "an existence-guarded block whose path does not exist" }, "why_a_clean_report_needs_that": "Every shape here currently reports zero, and zero is exactly what a scanner that has gone blind reports. Each detector is therefore run against a planted instance of the defect it looks for, and the audit refuses to publish a clean result it cannot demonstrate it earned." }, "contract_and_unit_audit": { "claim_boundary": "Three audit dimensions worked against the contract in force and the published bundle. It reads configuration and artifacts; it runs no backtest, opens no return data, registers no hypothesis identity and changes no threshold. Findings are reported, not acted on. 0 trials.", "companion": "artifacts/engineering/guards_that_cannot_fire.json is the fourth dimension, and artifacts/engineering/mutation_ledger.json is its behavioural half.", "dimensions": { "E": "contract satisfiability beyond the pairs the loader already rejects", "F": "published narrative numbers against the evidence they describe", "G": "units declared by a field's name against the value it holds" }, "findings": [ { "detail": "At 504 observations the approximate correlation standard error is 0.0447. The +0.00 point gate now applies to the candidate's average correlation to the existing book, while the +0.10 upper-bound gate applies to the resulting book-wide average. Because they govern different estimands, the old same-quantity arithmetic that made the uncertainty gate redundant no longer applies.", "dimension": "E", "numbers": { "candidate_average_point_gate": 0.0, "correlation_observations": 504, "resulting_book_average_upper_95_gate": 0.1, "standard_error": 0.0447 }, "title": "the v6 correlation-gate dominance defect is removed in v7", "verdict": "CONFIRMED" }, { "detail": "v7 has no book_deflated_sharpe_min admission threshold. It still requires the book DSR to be measured and published, while the 0.95 threshold moves to the forward-evidence maturity decision. This removes the gate that made every candidate inadmissible at the present sample size without weakening disclosure.", "dimension": "E", "numbers": { "book_deflated_sharpe_min_is_active_admission_gate": false, "book_deflated_sharpe_must_be_measured": true }, "title": "the underpowered incremental book-DSR threshold is retired without hiding DSR", "verdict": "CONFIRMED" }, { "detail": "newey_west_t_ratio_min=0.6 gates the ratio of the autocorrelation-robust t to the naive one, which depends on a candidate's own autocorrelation. There is no threshold pair here that contradicts it, and no arithmetic that clears it either. It can only be settled against real candidates, and it is recorded as unsettled rather than as satisfied.", "dimension": "E", "numbers": { "newey_west_t_ratio_min": 0.6 }, "title": "the Newey-West t-ratio floor is not decidable by arithmetic", "verdict": "UNDECIDABLE" }, { "detail": "All 9 figures quoted in the narrative sections are present in the evidence the bundle carries. This checks PRESENCE, not that each number is used in the right place \u2014 the stronger property belongs to E3.", "dimension": "F", "numbers": { "examples": [], "quoted": 9, "untraceable": 0 }, "title": "numbers in the published narrative that appear nowhere in the evidence it describes", "verdict": "REFUTED" }, { "detail": "only 9 figures appear in the narrative sections at all, so a clean result here is a statement about how little prose carries numbers rather than about how well those numbers are grounded. The stronger property \u2014 every number ANYWHERE on the site tracing to an artifact \u2014 is E3's, and this dimension should not be read as having established it.", "dimension": "F", "numbers": { "quoted": 9 }, "title": "the narrative sections quote too few numbers for this dimension to say much", "verdict": "CONFIRMED" }, { "detail": "244 of 3087 unit-declaring fields across the published bundle hold a value implausible for that unit: [{'source': 'polygon_split_crosscheck.json', 'field': 'crosschecks[6].stored_ratio', 'value': 100000.0, 'why': 'a ratio over 100 is probably a percentage'}, {'source': 'polygon_split_crosscheck.json', 'field': 'crosschecks[11].stored_ratio', 'value': 64615.0, 'why': 'a ratio over 100 is probably a percentage'}, {'source': 'polygon_split_crosscheck.json', 'field': 'crosschecks[22].stored_ratio', 'value': 105.0, 'why': 'a ratio over 100 is probably a percentage'}, {'source': 'polygon_split_crosscheck.json', 'field': 'crosschecks[25].stored_ratio', 'value': 260.0, 'why': 'a ratio over 100 is probably a percentage'}, {'source': 'polygon_split_crosscheck.json', 'field': 'crosschecks[27].stored_ratio', 'value': 310.0, 'why': 'a ratio over 100 is probably a percentage'}, {'source': 'polygon_split_crosscheck.json', 'field': 'crosschecks[40].stored_ratio', 'value': 334.4, 'why': 'a ratio over 100 is probably a percentage'}]", "dimension": "G", "numbers": { "fields_checked": 3087, "violations": 244 }, "title": "published fields whose value is implausible for the unit their name declares", "verdict": "CONFIRMED" } ], "refutations_are_kept": "A dimension that found nothing says so, with what it checked. An audit that reports only its hits cannot be told apart from one that did not run.", "schema": "canli.alphac-contract-and-unit-audit.v1" }, "published_as": { "active_ownership_blind_handoff_receipt": "active_ownership_13d_item4_v3_blind.json", "crypto_position_attribution_preflight_observation": "crypto_position_attribution_vps_preflight_observation.json", "external_publication": "research.json", "portfolio_evidence": "stanford_cs_evidence_map.json", "operating_margin_exposed_split_resolution": "operating_margin_exposed_split_issuer_resolution.json", "operating_margin_split_exposure": "operating_margin_unresolved_split_exposure.json", "trial_accounting": "trial_ledger.json" }, "prereg_earnings_narrative_parameters": { "claim_boundary": "The numeric parameters this pre-registration commits to, extracted from the committed document and stated as data. It asserts nothing about the candidate's performance, re-runs nothing, and changes no threshold. 0 trials.", "committed_parameters": { "hedge_beta_window_sessions": 252, "hold_sessions": 63, "minimum_aligned_observations": 252, "minimum_stressed_observations": 63, "momentum_lookback_session_index": -252, "momentum_lookback_sessions": 252, "momentum_skip_session_index": -21, "momentum_skip_sessions": 21, "note": "Stated in the document as '12-1 momentum ... adjusted close at session -21 divided by adjusted close at session -252', a trailing 252-session SPY beta hedge, and void conditions below 252 aligned or 63 stressed observations." }, "document": { "path": "docs/design/PREREG_EARNINGS_NARRATIVE_CHANGE.md", "public_path": "/research/prereg-earnings-narrative-change", "sha256": "sha256:60486da41f1e2c88e62b6e56d436d780f645420ffaeb13364540d0c4040cc3b9" }, "marginal_test_weights": { "candidate_weight": 0.1, "current_sleeves": 4, "derivation": "4 equal sleeves at 25% each; the candidate is assigned 10% funded PRO RATA, so every existing sleeve keeps 90% of its weight: 0.25 x 0.90 = 0.225. This is arithmetic, not a measurement, and it is published with its inputs so it can be checked rather than accepted.", "sleeve_weight_after": 0.225, "sleeve_weight_after_pct": 22.5, "sleeve_weight_before": 0.25 }, "measured_book_effect": { "base_sharpe": 0.9563039455217212, "candidate_10pct_sharpe": 1.0643867520134125, "note": "Included so the weight the spec commits to and the weight the run used are visible on one page.", "source": "artifacts/probe/earnings_narrative_change/result.json" }, "parameters_found_verbatim_in_the_document": [ "-21", "-252", "21", "252", "63" ], "schema": "canli.alphac-prereg-parameters.v1", "why_this_exists": "A pre-registration's function is that the spec is fixed before measurement so a reader can check the run against it. These parameters existed only as English sentences, so nothing could compare the executed run to the committed spec." }, "alphavintage_sealed_outcome": { "active_day_net_sharpe_superseded": 0.338207199401868, "active_days": 5998, "claim_boundary": "The figures the published correction paper quotes, recomputed from the probe's own artifacts so a reader can check them. It re-states a sealed result; it does not re-run it, re-open return data, or change any verdict. 0 trials.", "equity_curve_rows": 6296, "inputs": { "equity_parquet": { "path": "artifacts/probe/cpi_surprise_size/equity.parquet", "sha256": "sha256:d277c63ddf2bed6e9314aa863dbbf6adf3f4adb55bd89e8166aee4a19aab415f" }, "result_json": { "path": "artifacts/probe/cpi_surprise_size/result.json", "sha256": "sha256:686654b4617efb8322f6fda37f2e71a375423aecc6de03477a0186cf2844e509" } }, "max_drawdown": -0.2509779478479198, "max_drawdown_definition": "peak-to-trough on the probe's own equity curve: min(equity / cummax(equity) - 1). RECOMPUTED here because result.json does not carry a drawdown; the paper quoted a figure no published artifact contained.", "max_drawdown_pct": -25.1, "net_sharpe": 0.2298358829229609, "newey_west_t": 1.2673190577321936, "portfolio_days": 6296, "schema": "canli.alphac-alphavintage-sealed-outcome.v1", "verdict": "KILLED", "why_this_exists": "Two figures in that paper traced to nothing published: the superseded Sharpe lived only in an unpublished probe result, and the maximum drawdown was in no artifact at all. A correction paper whose own numbers cannot be checked asks for exactly the credence the original mistake did." }, "alphavintage_corrected_result": { "spec": { "instruments": [ "IWM", "SPY" ], "ar_lags": 3, "clip": 3.0, "cost_oneway_bp": 5.999999999999999, "configs_tried": 1 }, "net_sharpe": 0.2298358829229609, "nw_t": 1.2673190577321936, "active_day_net_sharpe_superseded": 0.338207199401868, "portfolio_days": 6296, "active_days": 5998, "calendar_correction": "zero-exposure sessions retained between first and last activity", "gross_sharpe": 0.44100360008192313, "placebo_sharpe": -0.02051691397900317, "placebo_nw_t": -0.11700964029171129, "checks": { "a_clears_bar": true, "b_nw_t_ge_1p5": false, "c_benefit_is_the_mean": true, "d_placebo_dead": true }, "verdict": "KILLED" }, "data_lake_scale": { "claim_boundary": "Counts what is on disk and what pytest collects. It says nothing about data quality, coverage gaps, or whether any of it supports a trading claim \u2014 only how much there is. Runs no backtest, opens no return data, registers no hypothesis. 0 trials.", "corrections_this_measurement_forced": [ "'392K+ point-in-time fundamentals' was OVERSTATED \u2014 the true figure is 380,878. An overstated count is the only kind of staleness that matters.", "'8,436 US stocks, survivorship-free' matched neither store and has been replaced by the point-in-time membership count, which is what the phrase means.", "'3.5M+ hourly bars' and '2,820+ automated tests' were understated by enough to mislead in the other direction; the '+' made them true and uninformative." ], "facts": { "automated_tests": { "definition": "tests pytest collects under tests/, summed from its own per-file collection report", "value": 3961 }, "crypto_hourly_bars": { "definition": "rows across every partition of data/lake/ohlcv, counted from parquet footers", "partitions": 2250, "value": 13662316 }, "crypto_instruments_with_bars": { "definition": "distinct instrument ids with at least one hourly bar, live and delisted. NOT the traded universe, which is a much smaller subset chosen by the sleeve's own filters", "value": 775 }, "equity_daily_bars": { "definition": "rows across every partition of data/lake/ohlcv_1d, counted from parquet footers", "partitions": 116037, "value": 24750503 }, "equity_instruments_in_pit_membership": { "definition": "distinct US-listed instrument ids the point-in-time universe store has ever admitted \u2014 the narrower answer, and the one that means 'survivorship-free research universe'", "value": 6835 }, "equity_instruments_with_bars": { "definition": "distinct US-listed instrument ids that have at least one daily bar, including delisted ones \u2014 the broadest defensible answer to 'how many stocks'", "value": 18015 }, "equity_year_span": { "definition": "first and last year partition present in the equity daily lake", "value": "1997-2026", "years": 30 }, "point_in_time_fundamentals": { "definition": "rows in data/lake/fundamentals \u2014 one (instrument, fiscal period) record carrying an available_at stamp, which is what makes it point-in-time", "partitions": 105144, "value": 380878 } }, "schema": "canli.alphac-data-lake-scale.v1", "why_each_figure_carries_a_definition": "'How many US stocks' has at least two defensible answers here and they differ by 2.6x: 18,015 instruments have bars, and 6,835 have ever been in the point-in-time universe. Publishing one without saying which it is would replace a stale number with an ambiguous one." }, "claim_coverage_map": { "claim_boundary": "Maps each PUBLISHED ARTIFACT to the mechanisms that guard it and records when each mechanism last ran, by running it. It does not claim any guard is correct \u2014 only which claims have one and which do not. 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[100%]" ] } }, "mechanisms": { "CONTENT_HASH": "recomputed by the published reproduce kit; proves it was not edited after publication and nothing about whether it is right", "HOST_MIRROR": "both hosts receive the identical file \u2014 the weakest, because it says two copies agree and nothing about what they say", "NAMED_GUARD": "a test or verifier that mentions this artifact specifically", "RENDERED_PAGE": "rendered as a measurement page and checked for a claim boundary", "SIGNATURE": "Ed25519 over the payload" }, "published_artifacts": 215, "rebuilt_before_observing": { "lint_debt_contract": { "command": "/Users/arhancanli/alphaforge/.venv/bin/python3 scripts/export_lint_debt_contract.py", "cwd": "/Users/arhancanli/alphaforge", "exit_code": 0, "outcome": "PASS", "ran_at": "2026-08-25T11:15:57+00:00", "tail": [ "/Users/arhancanli/alphaforge/artifacts/engineering/lint_debt_contract.json" ] }, "research_export": { "command": "/Users/arhancanli/alphaforge/.venv/bin/python3 scripts/research_export.py", "cwd": "/Users/arhancanli/alphaforge", "exit_code": 0, "outcome": "PASS", "ran_at": "2026-08-25T11:15:57+00:00", "tail": [ "wrote /Users/arhancanli/meridian/public/glassbox/research.json (3698965 bytes)", "content_hash: sha256:28c8b30201cb8d4a6ff3c5e249a93c3cbf5ee98d4f4b12769c6012514b438d62" ] } }, "schema": "canli.alphac-claim-coverage-map.v1", "unguarded": [], "what_mirror_only_means": "We verify both hosts received the identical file, and nothing verifies the file. No test names it, it carries no content hash, it renders on no page. If its contents went stale or wrong, both hosts would publish the same wrong thing and every check would pass.", "why": "Split coverage reads as coverage. Every guard here reports on itself and none reported on the set, so an artifact with no guard looked exactly like one with three.", "why_rebuild_first": "The publish path rebuilds the derived contracts before anything checks them, so a suite observed before that rebuild reports a failure the publish never ships. The first run of this map did exactly that.", "with_a_named_guard": 152 }, "repurchase_issuance_feasibility_audits": { "repurchase_issuance_companyfacts_audit": { "schema": "canli.feasibility.repurchase-issuance-companyfacts-audit.v1", "generated_at": "2026-08-16T00:34:11.932123+00:00", "stage": "official_xbrl_coverage_no_prices_no_returns", "protocol": "docs/design/FEASIBILITY_REPURCHASE_ISSUANCE_FLOW.md", "claim_boundary": "Direct-tag coverage cannot pass the full family feasibility gate. Item 703 table precision/recall and contamination reconciliation remain mandatory.", "source_manifest_hash": "sha256:3e206acc081bb4adafa864fc9a609bf443505d28b9bea08758a1434fcc2513a2", "facts_parts_sha256": "8ec319e070b6248e57a875cf9c5fc1af761af0cd6802e9f2f5fb5c7d669984d5", "submissions_parts_sha256": "0d91d328010c4c21b21f78ca7f4a940cf00e6109c45f55be8c1fb0f540038e4a", "metrics": { "periodic_filings": 15009, "issuer_years": 3903, "relevant_fact_rows": 150570, "tag_family_rows": { "authorization_not_completion": 284, "contamination_acquisition": 1730, "contamination_stock_compensation": 38630, "contamination_stock_split": 571, "issuance_cash": 8970, "issuance_shares": 2139, "reconciliation": 82036, "repurchase_cash": 11846, "repurchase_shares": 4364 }, "tag_family_issuer_years": { "authorization_not_completion": 96, "contamination_acquisition": 537, "contamination_stock_compensation": 3131, "contamination_stock_split": 224, "issuance_cash": 1550, "issuance_shares": 551, "reconciliation": 3643, "repurchase_cash": 1698, "repurchase_shares": 777 }, "accession_declared_rows": 150570, "accession_joined_rows": 150559, "accession_join_rate": 0.9999269442784087, "context_complete_rows": 149800, "context_complete_rate": 0.99488609948861, "direct_repurchase_issuer_years": 1813, "direct_repurchase_coverage": 0.46451447604406865, "direct_repurchase_wilson_95_lower": 0.44891033917523077, "direct_issuance_issuer_years": 1692, "direct_issuance_coverage": 0.4335126825518832, "direct_issuance_wilson_95_lower": 0.41803862877270387, "unjoined_accessions": [ "0001493152-14-003020" ] }, "custom_extension_inventory": { "fact_rows": 2373, "tag_count_across_issuers": 260, "mapping_policy": "preserved_in_raw_and_counted_but_never_auto_mapped" }, "gates": { "collections_share_manifest": true, "sample_600_ciks": true, "accession_join_rate_gte_0_95": true, "context_complete_rate_gte_0_95": true, "return_data_unopened": true, "return_hypotheses_unspent": true }, "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "decision": "ITEM703_AUDIT_REQUIRED", "content_hash": "sha256:a3e911a82aa0a3fd255cf4429f1945af8d610af13dad18de7ab11db09691c23a" }, "repurchase_issuance_semantics_audit": { "schema": "canli.feasibility.repurchase-issuance-semantics-audit.v1", "generated_at": "2026-08-16T00:35:50.832944+00:00", "stage": "point_in_time_semantics_no_prices_no_returns", "source_manifest_hash": "sha256:3e206acc081bb4adafa864fc9a609bf443505d28b9bea08758a1434fcc2513a2", "facts_parts_sha256": "8ec319e070b6248e57a875cf9c5fc1af761af0cd6802e9f2f5fb5c7d669984d5", "submissions_parts_sha256": "0d91d328010c4c21b21f78ca7f4a940cf00e6109c45f55be8c1fb0f540038e4a", "amendment_replay": { "amendment_fact_rows_tested": 2407, "slice_invariant_failures": [], "slice_invariant": true }, "quarterization": { "eligible_cumulative_facts": 54879, "derived_quarters": 35792, "failed_closed_facts": 19087, "failure_reasons": { "missing_acceptance": 5, "missing_context": 646, "missing_predecessor": 18321, "ambiguous_predecessor": 115, "nonnumeric_value": 0 }, "zero_imputations": 0, "accounted_for": true }, "contamination": { "fact_rows": { "contamination_stock_compensation": 38630, "contamination_acquisition": 1730, "contamination_stock_split": 571, "contamination_preferred_mixed": 0, "authorization_not_completion": 284, "custom_extension": 2373, "tender_offer": 0 }, "all_categories_reported": true, "tender_offer_source": "Item 703 document audit pending" }, "gates": { "amendment_replay_slice_invariant": true, "quarterization_accounts_for_every_eligible_fact": true, "quarterization_zero_imputations": true, "contamination_categories_explicit": true, "return_data_unopened": true, "return_hypotheses_unspent": true }, "return_data_opened": false, "return_hypotheses_spent": 0, "decision": "SEMANTICS_PASS", "claim_boundary": "This stage cannot pass combined family feasibility or open returns.", "content_hash": "sha256:58d2c0cbe44bbf34a71df0e30eada1d148c3255bdbc1d202bbf25a191d70f2de" }, "repurchase_issuance_identity_overlap_audit": { "schema": "canli.alphac-repurchase-issuance-overlap-audit.v1", "stage": "identity_governance_no_new_returns", "return_data_opened_by_this_audit": false, "return_hypotheses_spent_by_this_audit": 0, "classification": "SAME_ECONOMIC_FAMILY_DISTINCT_MEASUREMENT", "economic_family": "corporate_equity_supply", "prior_identity": { "id": "eq_net_issuance", "measurement": "year-over-year log change in split-adjusted basic shares", "direction": "long net repurchasers, short net issuers", "source_sha256": "300a8c31895d0efbe06c1858099faa25a5454b20ffffacd67f87b7f433ec4fb4" }, "proposed_identity": { "id": "repurchase_issuance_flow", "measurement": "filing-known completed cash repurchases versus contamination-resolved completed issuance", "proposal_sha256": "a6eb0e08236e8445b3470367e909fe6120068c836bb2cf543b474a6e22693e6e" }, "prior_trial_account": { "ledger_records": [ { "ledger": "var/experiments.jsonl", "line": 119, "config_hash": "6f975d14e246fd87", "hypothesis_key_excluding_window": "ec0e61ae6c3a06c4", "sharpe_ann": null, "n_obs": 5384, "start": 946684800000, "end": 1780272000000, "instrument_count": 6820, "allocator": "rank", "rebalance_bars": 63 }, { "ledger": "var_sharadar/experiments.jsonl", "line": 1, "config_hash": "f6c688ee24fe01d7", "hypothesis_key_excluding_window": "f8d284c62e7be731", "sharpe_ann": -0.12892535585660012, "n_obs": 3873, "start": 1262304000000, "end": 1780272000000, "instrument_count": 4980, "allocator": "rank", "rebalance_bars": 63 }, { "ledger": "var_sharadar/experiments.jsonl", "line": 6, "config_hash": "8ce99f5c7b0447ef", "hypothesis_key_excluding_window": "da0157b02b4dad5a", "sharpe_ann": -0.3112743437896463, "n_obs": 3369, "start": 1325376000000, "end": 1780272000000, "instrument_count": 4701, "allocator": "rank", "rebalance_bars": 63 } ], "distinct_config_hashes": 3, "distinct_hypothesis_keys_excluding_window": 3, "walkforward_folds_not_independent_trials": 62 }, "prior_outcomes": { "source_correct_full_window_rerun": { "sharpe": 0.14814008749165788, "vol_ann": 0.06722364102171516, "max_dd": 0.1748371304261177 }, "latest_sealed_sweep": { "sharpe": -0.3112743437896463, "dsr": 0.00010209846752985413, "n_trials_at_run": 6, "clears_dsr_gate": false, "max_drawdown": 0.371066, "artifact_sha256": "37de83acc2c1b259d0d3e27a9c68db16c60cffd5842dbf344df2b4236381d3be" } }, "governance": { "may_count_as_new_economic_family": false, "may_count_toward_ten_new_independent_sleeves": false, "feasibility_audit_may_continue_without_returns": true, "fresh_standalone_trial_budget": false, "required_family_trial_floor": 4, "required_future_controls": [ "include every prior corporate-equity-supply trial in union DSR accounting", "residualize against the frozen broad eq_net_issuance signal", "prove positive mean-zero marginal book contribution", "use an untouched post-declaration holdout and publish a null", "admit only as a replacement or same-family refinement, never as independent breadth" ] }, "decision": "CONTINUE_DATA_FEASIBILITY_SAME_FAMILY", "claim_boundary": "Completed flows may be a cleaner measurement, but cleanliness is not economic independence. No return sign, Sharpe, correlation, admission, or new-sleeve claim is authorized by this audit.", "lineage": { "rerun_result_sha256": "9a36093ab36fcf6ef66c2955d0cc29ed8105d894815b2042c1511787a8cfdf33", "sweep_summary_sha256": "1c08971157c1af90255adf04f5518e65319cdd1f71e665a3dac0f861c30e31d7" }, "content_hash": "sha256:5924a643ecd1c82e69f5289cdf5c9d83bc3a81779d0935e6be057723b7efced7" } }, "identity_redesign": { "spinoff_form_universe": { "claim_boundary": "Counts filings by form type and enumerates the action types held in the corporate-action lake. Opens no return data, registers no hypothesis identity, proposes no threshold and authorises no candidate. 0 trials.", "corporate_action_route_checked": { "action_types": { "dividend": 11016, "split": 334 }, "carries_a_spin_off_or_distribution_type": false, "instruments_in_lake": 8799, "instruments_sampled": 600, "sample_seed": 0, "verdict": "The corporate-action lake does NOT carry the event. It holds ['dividend', 'split'] and nothing resembling a distribution, so the structured route is the filing index rather than the corporate-action record. Checked rather than assumed: an unchecked version of this note would have proposed a route that does not exist and would have read just as confidently." }, "edgar_index": { "first_year": "2010", "last_year": "2025", "quarters_read": 64, "source": "data/raw/sec_active_ownership_13d/indexes/*.idx.gz" }, "note": "docs/design/IDENTITY_REDESIGN_NOTES.md quotes these numbers and a test pins them.", "schema": "canli.alphac-spinoff-form-universe.v1", "spin_off_registrations": { "by_year": { "2010": { "amended": 64, "initial": 19 }, "2011": { "amended": 67, "initial": 27 }, "2012": { "amended": 66, "initial": 22 }, "2013": { "amended": 70, "initial": 31 }, "2014": { "amended": 150, "initial": 38 }, "2015": { "amended": 138, "initial": 45 }, "2016": { "amended": 151, "initial": 33 }, "2017": { "amended": 38, "initial": 10 }, "2018": { "amended": 53, "initial": 25 }, "2019": { "amended": 42, "initial": 36 }, "2020": { "amended": 19, "initial": 16 }, "2021": { "amended": 33, "initial": 20 }, "2022": { "amended": 45, "initial": 20 }, "2023": { "amended": 46, "initial": 19 }, "2024": { "amended": 33, "initial": 17 }, "2025": { "amended": 26, "initial": 8 } }, "form_amended": "10-12B/A", "form_initial": "10-12B", "mean_initial_per_year": 24.1, "total_amended": 1041, "total_initial": 386 }, "the_unwelcome_half": "386 initial registrations over 16 years is a thin universe. Whatever a redesigned identity claims is bounded by that count, and the bound belongs in the pre-registration rather than in a footnote after a disappointing result.", "why_this_is_metadata_not_extraction": "The form type is a field in the EDGAR master index. A Form 10-12B is filed to register a class of securities being distributed to shareholders, so the act of filing one declares the event and no sentence inside it has to. The protocol that failed was reading prose to rediscover a universe the index already names." }, "notes_public_path": "/research/identity-redesign-notes.md", "notes_source_path": "docs/design/IDENTITY_REDESIGN_NOTES.md", "notes_sha256": "5606fed950d3c599696e444e957e52f6eb1eae9e3e28e9f1e441c623a2a32a75", "public_path": "/glassbox/spinoff_form_universe.json", "source_path": "artifacts/analysis/spinoff_form_universe/result.json", "status": "DRAFT \u2014 nothing here is registered and no threshold is proposed" }, "sleeve_admission_contract": { "contract": { "additional_required_portfolio_evidence": [ "book_sharpe_delta_lower_95", "book_expected_max_drawdown" ], "capacity_curve_required_fields": [ "capital_usd", "net_sharpe", "fill_ratio", "stressed_cost_bps" ], "capacity_policy": { "capacity_usd_min": 500000, "capacity_usd_min_previous": 5000000, "reason": "A 5,000,000 USD floor per sleeve implies a 70,000,000 USD book at fourteen sleeves. It was written for a fund that does not exist yet, and it did not reject candidates uniformly: the return sources most likely to be genuinely anti-correlated with a momentum-and-carry book -- catastrophe bonds, municipal basis, freight, power, sovereign dislocation -- are structurally thin. The floor therefore selected AGAINST the diversification the objective depends on, which is the opposite of what a capacity gate is for.", "review_trigger": "Re-raise per sleeve when deployed capital per sleeve exceeds one fifth of this floor. Capacity is a property of the strategy, but the FLOOR is a property of the book, and a floor that outruns the book is a constraint that costs edge for nothing.", "what_this_does_not_relax": "The capacity CURVE, its monotonicity reconciliation, and the stressed fill-ratio floor are unchanged. A candidate must still show Sharpe decaying and cost rising with capital, and must still reconcile its reported capacity to that curve." }, "claim_boundary": "This in-force contract applies only to return identities reserved at ordinal 229 or later under its exact effective hash. The 228 legacy identities remain retired under their original contracts and may not be regraded or reused. Technical eligibility does not establish alpha, future returns, the 1.5 forward Sharpe target, the 11% expected-drawdown objective, or the -0.03 diversification objective.", "deflation_policy": { "book_deflation_is_mandatory_for_maturity": true, "book_deflation_is_strictly_additional": false, "book_maturity_threshold": 0.95, "book_measurement_key": "book_deflated_sharpe_must_be_measured", "book_selection_unit": "complete_union_hypothesis_identities", "book_threshold_key": null, "per_sleeve_gate_removed_reason": "The per-sleeve 0.95 DSR gate was already removed in v6 because it measured the wrong object and silently required about eight times the declared standalone Sharpe floor. Per-sleeve DSR remains mandatory to measure and publish. V7 additionally re-scopes the full-union book DSR threshold: it remains mandatory to measure at every admission and becomes a 0.95 gate at portfolio maturity, while incremental admission is decided by the positive bootstrap lower bound on book-Sharpe improvement and the other unchanged robustness, execution, stress, capacity, and trial-accounting gates.", "per_sleeve_is_measured_not_gated": true, "per_sleeve_measurement_key": "deflated_sharpe_must_be_measured", "per_sleeve_selection_unit": "family_trial_account", "per_sleeve_threshold_key": "deflated_sharpe_min", "reason": "DSR deflates for the trials the selection was drawn from. A pre-registered, direction-locked candidate in a new family was not selected from other families' trials. The published claim is the book's, so the book carries the full union." }, "derived_from": "canli.alphac-sleeve-admission-contract.v6", "diversification_evidence_policy": { "candidate_weight": "predeclared upstream and supplied explicitly", "confidence_level_one_sided": 0.95, "confidence_method": "deterministic circular moving-block bootstrap", "default_block_size": 21, "default_bootstrap_samples": 2000, "default_seed": 20260816, "implementation": "alphaforge.validation.diversification.diversification_report", "return_type": "aligned OOS simple returns with no dropped rows", "stress_mask": "predeclared upstream and supplied explicitly" }, "evidence": "artifacts/analysis/frontier_14/result.json", "evidence_checks_per_candidate": 86, "execution_dimensions": [ "commissions", "bid_ask_spread", "slippage", "nonlinear_market_impact", "latency", "queue_position", "partial_fills", "rejected_orders", "cancelled_orders", "missing_opens", "stale_quotes", "holidays", "corporate_actions", "delistings", "borrow_availability", "borrow_fees", "borrow_recalls", "financing", "futures_rolls_and_limits", "option_surfaces_assignment_and_gaps", "exchange_outages", "venue_and_counterparty_risk", "turnover", "liquidity", "crowding", "operational_kill_switches" ], "execution_evidence_policy": { "dimension_hash_is_canonical_manifest_hash": true, "not_applicable_requires_sha256": true, "scenario_hashes_are_canonical_payload_hashes": true, "scenario_manifest_required_fields": [ "scenario_id", "status", "assumptions", "assumptions_sha256", "result", "result_sha256" ], "scenario_statuses": [ "PASS", "FAIL" ], "tested_statuses_require_scenario_manifest": true, "tested_statuses_require_scenarios": true, "tested_statuses_require_sha256": true }, "execution_statuses": [ "TESTED_PASS", "TESTED_FAIL", "NOT_APPLICABLE" ], "frontier_arithmetic": { "book_sharpe_ceiling_at_zero_global_correlation": { "s_bar_four_curve_basis": 1.736129027463109, "s_bar_traded_basis": 1.979336757603415 }, "claim_boundary": "Derived from the governing identity alone. Reads no data, runs no backtest, spends no hypothesis, and claims no candidate's correlation, sign or return.", "correlation_required_at_measured_quality": { "four_curve_basis": { "rho_bar_required_for_2.25": -0.031124117758784424, "rho_bar_required_for_3.0": -0.05116116239316239 }, "note": "The other route to the same place: hold quality where it is measured today and read off the average pairwise correlation each end of the band demands.", "traded_basis": { "rho_bar_required_for_2.25": -0.017393747388414055, "rho_bar_required_for_3.0": -0.04343782905982906 } }, "honest_reading": "Tightening the correlation ceiling from 0.15 to 0.00 removes a ceiling that sat BELOW the objective at every plausible quality, which is why the v4 gate could not have produced the objective at any sleeve count. It does not on its own deliver the objective. At the gate exactly, fourteen sleeves of today's measured quality reach the figure recorded above, and the remaining distance has to be bought with per-sleeve quality, genuinely negative correlation, or both. Publishing this is the point: a target sitting beside a gate that forbids it is not a stretch goal.", "identity": "S_book = s_bar * sqrt(N / (1 + (N - 1) * rho_bar))", "incremental_book_average_correlation_delta_gate_exclusive": 0.0, "incremental_candidate_average_correlation_gate": 0.0, "incremental_gates_alone_establish_objective_ceiling": false, "incremental_gates_alone_establish_objective_floor": false, "legacy_global_zero_correlation_reference": 0.0, "psd_floor_at_target_n": -0.07692307692307693, "psd_floor_note": "Average pairwise correlation cannot fall below -1/(N-1) for any real correlation matrix. At fourteen sleeves that floor is far from binding, which is why a negative average is arithmetically available here and is not at 250 sleeves.", "quality_precondition_at_the_gate": { "note": "What the tightened correlation gate alone does NOT buy. At the gate exactly, reaching each end of the objective band requires at least this average standalone Sharpe across fourteen sleeves.", "s_bar_measured_four_curve_basis": 0.464, "s_bar_measured_traded_basis": 0.529, "s_bar_required_for_2.25": 0.6013377943029549, "s_bar_required_for_3.0": 0.8017837257372732 }, "target_sleeve_count": 14 }, "gate_power_audit": { "candidate_return_artifacts_read": 0, "content_hash": "sha256:743c803a4a65869be14957cec1ce0d7737568d26fb3d89278f827dfedd0186fb", "hypothesis_identities_consumed": 0, "path": "artifacts/analysis/admission_gate_power_audit/result.json", "sha256": "0efb66ef4b7f5e497da56fcb2e178a69ef522f69ac4ba7d9b09297c5ae057f42" }, "incremental_gate_scope_policy": { "book_deflated_sharpe": { "admission_role": "MANDATORY_MEASUREMENT_AND_PUBLICATION", "full_union_trial_count_remains_mandatory": true, "maturity_threshold": 0.95, "portfolio_maturity_role": "GATE_AT_0.95", "reason": "Measure and publish full-union book DSR at every admission, but gate it at the portfolio-maturity claim. Incremental admission remains gated by the strictly positive bootstrap lower bound on book-Sharpe delta, PBO, leave-period-out robustness, costs, stress, execution and full trial accounting." }, "correlation": { "average_upper_95_gate_unchanged": 0.1, "book_average_pairwise_correlation_delta_must_be_strictly_negative": true, "candidate_average_to_existing_book_max": 0.0, "global_average_pairwise_correlation": "MANDATORY_MEASUREMENT_AND_TRAJECTORY", "global_objective": -0.03, "ordinary_pair_and_stress_gates_unchanged": true, "reason": "Gate each new sleeve on a strictly negative change in the book's average pairwise correlation and a candidate-to-existing-book average no greater than zero, retain the 95% uncertainty ceiling and pair/stress ceilings, and publish the separate trajectory to -0.03. Do not require the first increment to finish the entire book's diversification objective." } }, "lineage_types": { "boolean_fields": [ "point_in_time_data", "survivorship_control", "corporate_action_control", "direction_locked", "parameters_locked" ], "code_commit_field": "code_commit", "identifier_fields": [ "family_trial_account", "return_identity_id" ], "sha256_fields": [ "preregistration_sha256", "data_manifest_sha256", "diversification_report_sha256" ] }, "objective": { "average_pairwise_correlation_objective": -0.03, "average_pairwise_correlation_objective_note": "An objective, not a gate. -0.03 is the average pairwise correlation at which fourteen sleeves of measured quality reach 2.5. Thresholds are gates and live in 'thresholds'; anything that is not enforced must not sit there wearing a gate's costume.", "backtest_to_forward_haircut": { "measured_on_this_book": "in-sample equal-risk ~1.04 against an honest forward of 0.3-0.9", "note": "The haircut IS the uncertainty. Until the forward record is long enough to speak, every in-sample figure should be read through it, and the range is this book's own published pair rather than a convention borrowed from elsewhere.", "range": [ 1.5, 3.0 ] }, "honest_forward_sharpe_target": 1.5, "implied_in_sample_target": { "at_1_5x_haircut": 2.25, "at_2_0x_haircut": 3.0, "at_3_0x_haircut": 4.5 }, "minimum_new_sleeves": 10, "portfolio_max_drawdown_statistic": "expected_maximum_drawdown", "portfolio_max_drawdown_target": 0.11, "portfolio_p95_max_drawdown_is_gated": false, "portfolio_p95_max_drawdown_must_be_published": true, "portfolio_sharpe_target": [ 2.25, 3.0 ], "portfolio_sharpe_target_unit": "IN-SAMPLE, being the band that an honest forward 1.5 implies at the 1.5x and 2.0x ends of this book's own measured haircut. The headline target is honest_forward_sharpe_target.", "superseded_in_sample_sharpe_target": [ 2.0, 2.5 ], "superseded_reason": "Stated in-sample with no haircut named, and unreachable as a forward result: a verified forward 2.0 at measured per-sleeve quality needs an average pairwise correlation of -0.062 against a PSD floor of -0.077. Withdrawn 2026-08-21 and replaced with an honest FORWARD target of 1.5, which is inside the floor at every plausible quality.", "target_total_sleeves": 14, "targets_are_admission_evidence": false, "what_reaching_it_requires": "Both halves, not either: an average pairwise correlation meaningfully BELOW zero, and per-sleeve quality above roughly 0.60. At today's measured 0.469 the forward target is reachable only at a correlation near -0.030 and only on the optimistic haircut.", "why_this_is_not_a_retreat": "The rarer thing was never the number. A forward Sharpe near 1.5 that is genuinely verifiable -- signed forward record, every killed candidate published in full, gates that provably bite, and the arithmetic showing where the gate falls short of the target printed on the same page as the target -- is harder to find than a 2.5 nobody can check." }, "overlay_policy": { "annualized_vol_target": 0.1, "both_halves_shipped": false, "cost_of_the_halflife_change": { "evaluated_at_stressed_correlation": 0.5, "evidence": "artifacts/analysis/overlay_halflife_decision/result.json", "simulated_expected_max_drawdown_after": 0.10225, "simulated_expected_max_drawdown_before": 0.14213, "status": "SUPERSEDED \u2014 the baseline it prices is not what the crypto sleeve ran", "why_this_is_not_the_live_cost": "The 'before' cell is a 720-DAY halflife in a daily simulation. The crypto sleeve ran 720 BARS on H1, which is 30 days, and the live estimator is windowed and seeded rather than an untruncated recursion. Both figures are kept because they were published; neither is a measurement of the live book." }, "covariance_halflife_days_max": 21, "covariance_halflife_note": "21 is the only tested covariance halflife that holds expected max drawdown at or under the objective at the permitted stressed correlation. Provisional pending execution costing.", "halflife_pending_execution_costing": true, "halflife_unit_defect": { "description": "The halflife was a BAR count while the objective and this contract are stated in DAYS, and a bar is one hour on the crypto H1 sleeve against one session on equity D1. The old 720-bar default therefore meant 30 days to crypto and about 2.9 years to equities. Writing the study's 21 into the bar parameter would have given the crypto sleeve a 21-HOUR covariance halflife.", "found": "2026-08-21", "resolution": "The parameter is cov_halflife_days, converted at the point of use via periods_per_year(tf) / periods_per_year(D1). Pinned by tests/unit/test_cov_halflife_units.py, which fails if the conversion is removed.", "still_ambiguous_and_not_changed": "cov_window_bars (720), cov_min_periods (240) and realized_vol_halflife_bars (240) all carry the same ambiguity, and the realized-leg one is named by a threshold in this contract that says DAYS. No study measured them, so changing them would be an unmeasured change; naming them is the honest alternative to fixing them quietly." }, "implementation": "alphaforge.portfolio.overlay.vol_target", "known_defect": { "description": "The realized leg was measured on the post-overlay account equity curve while the ex-ante leg used pre-overlay optimizer weights. The book runs de-levered, so the realized leg lost max() essentially always and the fast regime detector never fired.", "expected_max_drawdown_cost_at_permitted_stressed_rho": 0.0217, "measured_bind_fraction_as_shipped": 0.000193, "measured_bind_fraction_if_fixed": 0.817626, "site": "src/alphaforge/portfolio/strategy.py (_realized_vol_ann)", "status": "RESOLVED in production. The realized leg is now de-levered per bar before comparison, and tests/unit/test_overlay_realized_leg_scale.py pins the caller's value rather than the function's intention." }, "mandatory_vol_target_overlay": true, "production_cov_halflife_today": 720, "production_cov_halflife_unit": "BARS, and therefore a different duration per sleeve: 720 bars is 30 days on the crypto H1 sleeve and 720 sessions, about 2.86 years, on equity D1. Incoherent by construction and unchanged, because changing it changes the live book.", "production_realized_vol_halflife_today": 240, "production_realized_vol_halflife_unit": "BARS, not days, and NOT converted per calendar. On the crypto H1 sleeve 240 bars is 10 days, not the 240 days the realized_vol_halflife_days_max threshold names. Only the covariance leg gained a calendar conversion; the realized leg still has none. Stated here rather than left implied, because the earlier wording of this block asserted a per-calendar conversion for both legs and that was false for this one.", "realized_vol_halflife_days_max": 240, "realized_vol_halflife_note": "240 is production's value and the value every sweep cell used. No shorter realized-leg halflife was tested, so none is required; this threshold bounds regression, not design.", "realized_vol_leg_must_be_unlevered": true, "reason": "Permitted stressed pairwise correlation of 0.50 implies an expected maximum drawdown near 20% with no overlay and 16.4% with the overlay as shipped today. Correcting the realized-leg scale and shortening the covariance halflife to 21 holds it at 10.2%. The overlay, not a tighter correlation ceiling, is what holds the drawdown objective.", "remaining_gap_to_the_drawdown_objective": "OPEN, and wider than a previous revision of this contract claimed. The measured study holds expected maximum drawdown at 10.2% only with BOTH the realized-leg scale correction (shipped) and the covariance halflife at 21 days (NOT shipped). The halflife change was briefly made the default and has been reverted, for three reasons recorded in full below: it silently re-sizes every live sleeve on the next daily tick; the sweep cell used to price it does not correspond to what the crypto sleeve actually ran; and the live estimator is windowed and seeded, so it does not reproduce the untruncated recursion the sweep simulated. The objective is also an EXPECTED maximum drawdown -- no tested configuration held the 95th percentile at or under 11%, the best being 13.8%.", "sigma_hat_rule": "max(ex_ante, realized)", "why_the_halflife_change_was_reverted": { "also_unresolved": "ledoit_wolf_cc is passed the full unweighted 720-row window to compute its shrinkage intensity. That was conservative while the EWMA's effective sample exceeded 720; at a short halflife it is not, and the shrinkage would be materially too weak.", "cost_basis_did_not_correspond": "The sweep is a DAILY simulation, so its cov=720 cell is a 720-DAY halflife. The live crypto sleeve ran 720 BARS on H1, which is 30 days. Pricing the change against the 720 cell therefore measured a 2.86-year to 21-day move and published it as the cost of a 30-day to 21-day one. Interpolating the artifact's own cells at rho_stress 0.50 puts the crypto sleeve's real improvement near 0.5pp, not 3.98pp.", "estimator_does_not_match_the_simulation": "ewma_cov is windowed at cov_window_bars=720 and seeds S_0 with an equally weighted sample covariance over the oldest min_periods=240 rows, so a large share of the estimate is a flat block the recursion cannot forget inside the window. The sweep simulated an untruncated recursion. The mapping from a swept halflife to the live estimator's effective memory is therefore not one-to-one and was never measured.", "found_by": "adversarial audit, 2026-08-21, after the change had been deployed", "live_blast_radius": "No call site passes cov_halflife_days: the crypto loop (cli/paper_cmds.py), the AlphaTrend gauntlet and the AlphaMax walk-forward all take the default. The walk-forwards are regenerated by the daily ticks and live_cycle.py submits the last leg's weights straight to the broker, so a default change is a trade on every sleeve at once, not a configuration edit. The commit that made it claimed 'nothing was re-run', which was wrong in the direction that mattered.", "the_mapping_is_now_measured": { "consequence": "If the drawdown study's finding holds -- shorter covariance memory reduces expected maximum drawdown -- the halflife IS the instrument on both sleeves, and it must be asked for BELOW the window rather than at 21 days where truncation has already begun. It is also the better of the two routes: 7 days at the production window gives 7.0 days of memory on ~475 effective rows, while shortening the window to 240 bars gives ~8 days on ~107 rows. Four times the effective sample for comparable memory, which also keeps ledoit_wolf_cc's T=720 approximation far closer to valid. That approximation is where the remaining exposure sits: at a 21-day halflife on equity the effective sample is 60.6 rows against a T of 720.", "correction": "An earlier revision of this block said the parameter was 'nearly inert' on crypto and named cov_window_bars as the only lever. That was withdrawn the same day: it came from sampling only 21 days and up, where every result is truncated into a 20-25 day band by the window. Below the window the halflife works.", "evidence": "artifacts/analysis/live_covariance_memory/result.json", "finding": "The estimator's memory is bounded by cov_window_bars, so the halflife is faithful BELOW the window and truncated above it. On the crypto H1 sleeve the 720-bar window is 30 days: 7 days requested delivers 7.0, 14 delivers 14.0, but 30 delivers 22.0 and 720 delivers 24.9. On the equity D1 sleeve the same window is 720 SESSIONS, so the parameter is faithful across the practical range and only the legacy 720-day setting is truncated, to 529 days." }, "what_would_make_it_shippable": "Measure the halflife on the LIVE estimator per sleeve, on each sleeve's own calendar, with the window, the seed and the shrinkage in the loop, and pass the value explicitly at the profile that measured it rather than as a global default." } }, "pbo_policy": { "measured_status": "MEASURED", "never_report_not_defined_as_zero": true, "single_identity_status": "NOT_DEFINED_SINGLE_IDENTITY", "single_identity_value_must_be_null": true }, "prospective_scope": { "applies_only_to_identity_reservations_after_effective_hash": true, "effective": true, "effective_contract_content_hash": "sha256:bf175acfebead6fdfaa3d0f0f8380636797e468eb071fa20beae12f44d55ddb5", "effective_on_or_after_reservation_ordinal": 229, "known_candidates_may_not_be_regraded": true, "legacy_identities_retired_and_ineligible": 228, "owner_promotion_record": "config/admission_v7_promotion.json", "promotion_requirements": [ "INDEPENDENT_TEST_SUITE_PASSES", "PUBLIC_GATE_PROJECTION_RECONCILES", "TRIAL_BUDGET_V7_IS_HASH_BOUND", "OWNER_PROMOTION_RECORDED" ] }, "rationale": "docs/design/ADMISSION_V7.md", "required_lineage": [ "preregistration_sha256", "data_manifest_sha256", "diversification_report_sha256", "code_commit", "family_trial_account", "return_identity_id", "point_in_time_data", "survivorship_control", "corporate_action_control", "direction_locked", "parameters_locked" ], "required_robustness": [ "walk_forward", "purged", "embargoed", "untouched_holdout", "parameter_perturbation", "regime_stress", "correlation_instability", "leave_one_period_out", "mean_zero_candidate_control", "family_wise_trial_accounting", "deterministic_rerun", "correlation_confidence_intervals", "crisis_conditional_dependence", "tail_co_loss", "execution_replay", "capacity_stress", "canonical_diversification_report", "book_level_deflation", "overlay_replay" ], "retired_admission_gates": { "average_pairwise_correlation_max": { "reason": "A final global level was path-dependent when applied to the first incremental sleeve. Replaced by strict candidate-to-book and global-improvement gates while the -0.03 portfolio objective remains published.", "retired_in": "v7-proposed", "value": 0.0 }, "book_deflated_sharpe_min": { "reason": "Re-scoped to portfolio maturity. It remains a mandatory full-union measurement at every admission and remains the 0.95 gate before a mature portfolio claim.", "retired_in": "v7-proposed", "value": 0.95 } }, "schema": "canli.alphac-sleeve-admission-contract.v7", "significance_policy": { "correlation_observations_decoupled": "minimum_correlation_observations is separate from minimum_oos_observations because they measure different things: a candidate's own sample is the candidate's to supply, while the correlation window is its intersection with the BOOK. Tying them together made admission impossible for a reason that had nothing to do with any candidate -- v6 briefly required 756 correlation observations against a book that can supply 728 on its blessed basis and 177 on its live-forward one.", "minimum_oos_observations_raised_from": 252, "minimum_oos_observations_reason": "Raised to three years because the binding constraint of this whole programme is an average pairwise correlation, and a correlation measured over 252 observations carries a sampling error near 0.063 -- twice the size of the -0.03 effect the objective turns on. Gating a number the sample cannot resolve is not a strict gate. Paired with average_pairwise_correlation_upper_95_max, which gates the bound rather than the point estimate.", "newey_west_t_min": 0.25, "newey_west_t_min_role": "sign gate", "newey_west_t_ratio_min": 0.6, "newey_west_t_ratio_role": "autocorrelation-inflation gate", "primary_significance_gate": "book_sharpe_delta_lower_95_min_exclusive", "reason": "v4 declared net_sharpe_min 0.40, newey_west_t_min 2.0 and minimum_oos_observations 252 together. Because t is approximately Sharpe * sqrt(years), a candidate at the declared Sharpe floor needed 25 years of out-of-sample data to clear the t floor, and at the declared 252-observation minimum the pair demanded a standalone Sharpe of 2.0 -- five times the floor a reader of the config would see. v5 lowered the Sharpe floor to 0.15 and left the t floor at 2.0, raising the hidden requirement to 178 years. The t floor, not the Sharpe floor, had been doing the rejecting all along. It is now set where it does what it is for -- excluding wrong-signed and indistinguishable-from-zero results -- and load_admission_contract refuses any contract whose three significance floors cannot all be met at once, so this class of error cannot recur.", "self_consistency_is_enforced_at_load": "load_admission_contract refuses any contract whose significance floors cannot all be satisfied at once. It checks two pairs: net_sharpe_min against newey_west_t_min at minimum_oos_observations, and net_sharpe_min against deflated_sharpe_min solved at n_trials=2. Both pairs were violated before v6, in the same way and undetected, which is why the check is structural rather than a corrected number.", "why_a_standalone_bar_is_the_wrong_instrument": "When correlation binds, standalone Sharpe does not rank a candidate's portfolio value: a Sharpe 0.25 sleeve at correlation -0.05 beats a Sharpe 0.60 sleeve at +0.30. The gate that decides admission is therefore the bootstrap LOWER bound on the book-Sharpe improvement, which prices edge and correlation together, and it is strictly harder to game than either input alone." }, "status": "IN_FORCE", "thresholds": { "absolute_beta_max": 0.1, "average_pairwise_correlation_upper_95_max": 0.1, "book_average_pairwise_correlation_delta_max_exclusive": 0.0, "book_deflated_sharpe_must_be_measured": true, "book_expected_max_drawdown_max": 0.11, "book_expected_shortfall_delta_max": 0.0, "book_max_drawdown_delta_max": 0.01, "book_sharpe_delta_lower_95_min_exclusive": 0.0, "book_sharpe_delta_min_exclusive": 0.0, "candidate_average_correlation_to_existing_book_max": 0.0, "capacity_curve_min_points": 3, "capacity_minimum_stressed_fill_ratio": 0.95, "capacity_usd_min": 500000, "covariance_halflife_days_max": 21, "deflated_sharpe_must_be_measured": true, "minimum_correlation_observations": 504, "minimum_execution_scenarios_per_dimension": 3, "minimum_leave_one_period_out_book_sharpe_delta_exclusive": 0.0, "minimum_oos_observations": 756, "minimum_stressed_oos_observations": 63, "net_sharpe_min": 0.15, "newey_west_t_min": 0.25, "newey_west_t_ratio_min": 0.6, "ordinary_pairwise_correlation_max": 0.35, "pairwise_correlation_upper_95_max": 0.35, "pbo_max": 0.2, "realized_vol_halflife_days_max": 240, "realized_vol_leg_must_be_unlevered": true, "stressed_pairwise_correlation_max": 0.5, "stressed_pairwise_correlation_upper_95_max": 0.5, "stressed_sharpe_min": 0.15 } }, "source_sha256": "6bc72c1f47675b4e14897e1ba3aad6e56aba9b5f013a7b9bae57f930e8d3b8b6", "public_path": "/glassbox/sleeve_admission_contract.json", "source_path": "config/sleeve_admission_contract.json" }, "trial_accounting_policy": { "policy": { "accounting_last_reconciled": "2026-08-22", "budget_last_reviewed": "2026-08-21", "budget_review": { "authorization": "Explicit owner decision to fund the fourteen-sleeve programme, taken with the evidence cost on the table rather than inferred afterwards.", "authorized_by": "owner, 2026-08-21", "cost_of_this_decision": { "annualized_deflated_benchmark_after_154_trials": 1.3041, "annualized_deflated_benchmark_before": 1.2074, "applies_to": "every sleeve in the book, not only the new candidates. Deflation is a property of the search, and the search is the book's.", "evidence": "artifacts/analysis/trial_budget_cost/result.json", "increase": 0.0967, "the_honest_caveat": "This assumes the measured 6.5% hit rate holds for families that have never been tested. It is an assumption, not a measurement, and the atlas families are deliberately unlike the ones that produced that rate. If the true rate is half of it, ten sleeves cost twice the trials and the budget will bind before the target is reached. Reaching the ceiling without ten admissions is a RESULT, not a failure of the budget, and the book stays smaller.", "why_it_is_affordable": "The deflated benchmark grows with the LOGARITHM of the trial count, so 154 trials on top of 162 move it by roughly 0.10 annualized. Sample length is the far stronger lever, which is why v6 raising minimum_oos_observations from 252 to 756 matters more to admissibility than this budget does." }, "headroom": 158, "hypothesis_identities_at_review": 162, "new_budget": 320, "next_tripwire": "At 320 recorded hypothesis identities, registration pauses again and requires a fresh owner review. Any single family exceeding 40 identities also pauses for review, so the budget cannot be consumed by one line of enquiry that is not working.", "prior_budget": 160, "rationale": "Ten new sleeves at the measured 6.5% hit rate (3 survivors from 46 tested candidates) implies about 154 trials. The budget is set at 320 identities, which funds that with a small margin and stops well short of an open-ended search. It is a CEILING, not a plan: the campaign closes at whatever count the evidence stops justifying.", "status_token_note": "ACTIVE is the canonical token the trial tripwire recognises. The prospective nature of this budget is recorded here rather than encoded in the status, so no guard is left unable to read the state it governs.", "what_did_not_change": "A target still never creates a sleeve. Fourteen is reached only if ten or more new identities independently clear every admission gate in config/sleeve_admission_contract.json; otherwise the book remains smaller. The budget buys permission to look, not permission to admit." }, "definitions": { "hypothesis_identity": "A distinct economic or parameter identity after removing only start and end measurement-window keys.", "immutable_execution_record": "One append-only, config-hash-unique measurement row. Rolling-window remeasurements remain records.", "window_only_remeasurement": "A later record whose config differs from an existing identity only in start or end. It remains public but does not inflate DSR selection N." }, "hypothesis_identity_budget": 400, "ledger_scope_correction": { "authorized_budget_unchanged": 320, "budget_remaining": 146, "current_hypothesis_identities": 174, "new_experiments_run": 0, "prior_reported_hypothesis_identities": 162, "reason": "Canonical union discovery scanned only top-level var* profiles and omitted four durable experiment ledgers filed with legacy result artifacts. The ledgers are selection evidence and have been restored to N. Withdrawn archive_broken_prices ledgers remain excluded.", "recorded_at": "2026-08-22", "recovered_ledger_paths": [ "artifacts/exp1/20260625T075446Z/experiments.jsonl", "artifacts/exp4/20260625T103226Z/experiments.jsonl", "artifacts/exp4/smoke_20260625T102142Z/experiments.jsonl", "artifacts/grand_backtest/20260616T143620Z/experiments.jsonl" ], "recovered_legacy_hypothesis_identities": 12, "status": "CORRECTED" }, "observed_hypothesis_identities": 228, "primary_ledger_record_audit_ceiling": 360, "prospective_v7_review": { "admission_v7_effective_contract_hash": "sha256:bf175acfebead6fdfaa3d0f0f8380636797e468eb071fa20beae12f44d55ddb5", "all_new_identities_enter_complete_union_deflation": true, "authorized_by": "Arhan Canli, owner, 2026-08-23", "book_dsr_required_at_400_and_756_rows": 2.2920431371526955, "current_probability_at_least_ten": 0.07696557149911874, "current_remaining_identities": 92, "effective_on_or_after_reservation_ordinal": 229, "identities_are_permission_to_test_not_permission_to_admit": true, "no_legacy_identity_reopened": true, "owner_promotion_record": "config/admission_v7_promotion.json", "planning_probability_is_not_a_forecast": true, "promotion_requires_admission_v7_content_hash": true, "prospective_probability_at_least_ten": 0.690428032795991, "prospective_remaining_identities": 172, "reason": "Ledger reconciliation raised the observed union from 162 to 228 without running new experiments, leaving only 92 identities under the 320 ceiling. At the previously declared planning rate of 3/46, that headroom has an exact binomial probability of only 7.70% of producing ten successes. A ceiling of 400 restores 172 prospective identities and a 69.04% planning probability under the same explicitly uncertain assumption.", "single_family_tripwire": 40, "staged_hard_reviews": [ 320, 360, 400 ], "status": "IN_FORCE" }, "research_status": "ACTIVE_STAGED_PROSPECTIVE_BUDGET", "schema": "alphac.trial-accounting-policy.v2", "summary_trial_debt_correction": { "already_reconciled_before_this_correction": 24, "authorized_budget_unchanged": 320, "budget_remaining": 92, "current_hypothesis_identities": 228, "evidence": "artifacts/audit/trial_debt_reconciliation.json", "new_experiments_run": 0, "newly_reconciled_in_this_correction": 54, "prior_reported_hypothesis_identities": 174, "reason": "Seven persisted historical studies reported named return configurations but bypassed the durable experiment ledger. The source-bound v2 reconciliation charges every measured parameter identity, including 32 AlphaMax robustness-grid configurations and AlphaTrend's post-hoc selector configurations; rounded summaries are never used to assert duplicate economic identity.", "recorded_at": "2026-08-22", "recovered_historical_hypothesis_identities": 54, "source_identity_counts": { "alphamax_construction": 8, "alphamax_hyst_live": 6, "alphamax_turnover": 8, "alphamax_weighting": 48, "alphatrend_arp": 3, "alphatrend_breadth": 4, "crypto_vrp_proxy": 1 }, "status": "CORRECTED" }, "v7_power_audit_binding": { "content_hash": "sha256:743c803a4a65869be14957cec1ce0d7737568d26fb3d89278f827dfedd0186fb", "path": "artifacts/analysis/admission_gate_power_audit/result.json", "sha256": "0efb66ef4b7f5e497da56fcb2e178a69ef522f69ac4ba7d9b09297c5ae057f42" }, "window_only_keys": [ "start", "end" ] }, "source_sha256": "f15af7c989aded5da6c5259a7f7e5587377ab33977b5cd3c5b2395a84ea45043", "public_path": "/glassbox/trial_accounting.json", "source_path": "config/trial_accounting.json" }, "admission_v7_promotion": { "receipt": { "active_contract": { "additional_required_portfolio_evidence": [ "book_sharpe_delta_lower_95", "book_expected_max_drawdown" ], "capacity_curve_required_fields": [ "capital_usd", "net_sharpe", "fill_ratio", "stressed_cost_bps" ], "capacity_policy": { "capacity_usd_min": 500000, "capacity_usd_min_previous": 5000000, "reason": "A 5,000,000 USD floor per sleeve implies a 70,000,000 USD book at fourteen sleeves. It was written for a fund that does not exist yet, and it did not reject candidates uniformly: the return sources most likely to be genuinely anti-correlated with a momentum-and-carry book -- catastrophe bonds, municipal basis, freight, power, sovereign dislocation -- are structurally thin. The floor therefore selected AGAINST the diversification the objective depends on, which is the opposite of what a capacity gate is for.", "review_trigger": "Re-raise per sleeve when deployed capital per sleeve exceeds one fifth of this floor. Capacity is a property of the strategy, but the FLOOR is a property of the book, and a floor that outruns the book is a constraint that costs edge for nothing.", "what_this_does_not_relax": "The capacity CURVE, its monotonicity reconciliation, and the stressed fill-ratio floor are unchanged. A candidate must still show Sharpe decaying and cost rising with capital, and must still reconcile its reported capacity to that curve." }, "claim_boundary": "This in-force contract applies only to return identities reserved at ordinal 229 or later under its exact effective hash. The 228 legacy identities remain retired under their original contracts and may not be regraded or reused. Technical eligibility does not establish alpha, future returns, the 1.5 forward Sharpe target, the 11% expected-drawdown objective, or the -0.03 diversification objective.", "deflation_policy": { "book_deflation_is_mandatory_for_maturity": true, "book_deflation_is_strictly_additional": false, "book_maturity_threshold": 0.95, "book_measurement_key": "book_deflated_sharpe_must_be_measured", "book_selection_unit": "complete_union_hypothesis_identities", "book_threshold_key": null, "per_sleeve_gate_removed_reason": "The per-sleeve 0.95 DSR gate was already removed in v6 because it measured the wrong object and silently required about eight times the declared standalone Sharpe floor. Per-sleeve DSR remains mandatory to measure and publish. V7 additionally re-scopes the full-union book DSR threshold: it remains mandatory to measure at every admission and becomes a 0.95 gate at portfolio maturity, while incremental admission is decided by the positive bootstrap lower bound on book-Sharpe improvement and the other unchanged robustness, execution, stress, capacity, and trial-accounting gates.", "per_sleeve_is_measured_not_gated": true, "per_sleeve_measurement_key": "deflated_sharpe_must_be_measured", "per_sleeve_selection_unit": "family_trial_account", "per_sleeve_threshold_key": "deflated_sharpe_min", "reason": "DSR deflates for the trials the selection was drawn from. A pre-registered, direction-locked candidate in a new family was not selected from other families' trials. The published claim is the book's, so the book carries the full union." }, "derived_from": "canli.alphac-sleeve-admission-contract.v6", "diversification_evidence_policy": { "candidate_weight": "predeclared upstream and supplied explicitly", "confidence_level_one_sided": 0.95, "confidence_method": "deterministic circular moving-block bootstrap", "default_block_size": 21, "default_bootstrap_samples": 2000, "default_seed": 20260816, "implementation": "alphaforge.validation.diversification.diversification_report", "return_type": "aligned OOS simple returns with no dropped rows", "stress_mask": "predeclared upstream and supplied explicitly" }, "evidence": "artifacts/analysis/frontier_14/result.json", "evidence_checks_per_candidate": 86, "execution_dimensions": [ "commissions", "bid_ask_spread", "slippage", "nonlinear_market_impact", "latency", "queue_position", "partial_fills", "rejected_orders", "cancelled_orders", "missing_opens", "stale_quotes", "holidays", "corporate_actions", "delistings", "borrow_availability", "borrow_fees", "borrow_recalls", "financing", "futures_rolls_and_limits", "option_surfaces_assignment_and_gaps", "exchange_outages", "venue_and_counterparty_risk", "turnover", "liquidity", "crowding", "operational_kill_switches" ], "execution_evidence_policy": { "dimension_hash_is_canonical_manifest_hash": true, "not_applicable_requires_sha256": true, "scenario_hashes_are_canonical_payload_hashes": true, "scenario_manifest_required_fields": [ "scenario_id", "status", "assumptions", "assumptions_sha256", "result", "result_sha256" ], "scenario_statuses": [ "PASS", "FAIL" ], "tested_statuses_require_scenario_manifest": true, "tested_statuses_require_scenarios": true, "tested_statuses_require_sha256": true }, "execution_statuses": [ "TESTED_PASS", "TESTED_FAIL", "NOT_APPLICABLE" ], "frontier_arithmetic": { "book_sharpe_ceiling_at_zero_global_correlation": { "s_bar_four_curve_basis": 1.736129027463109, "s_bar_traded_basis": 1.979336757603415 }, "claim_boundary": "Derived from the governing identity alone. Reads no data, runs no backtest, spends no hypothesis, and claims no candidate's correlation, sign or return.", "correlation_required_at_measured_quality": { "four_curve_basis": { "rho_bar_required_for_2.25": -0.031124117758784424, "rho_bar_required_for_3.0": -0.05116116239316239 }, "note": "The other route to the same place: hold quality where it is measured today and read off the average pairwise correlation each end of the band demands.", "traded_basis": { "rho_bar_required_for_2.25": -0.017393747388414055, "rho_bar_required_for_3.0": -0.04343782905982906 } }, "honest_reading": "Tightening the correlation ceiling from 0.15 to 0.00 removes a ceiling that sat BELOW the objective at every plausible quality, which is why the v4 gate could not have produced the objective at any sleeve count. It does not on its own deliver the objective. At the gate exactly, fourteen sleeves of today's measured quality reach the figure recorded above, and the remaining distance has to be bought with per-sleeve quality, genuinely negative correlation, or both. Publishing this is the point: a target sitting beside a gate that forbids it is not a stretch goal.", "identity": "S_book = s_bar * sqrt(N / (1 + (N - 1) * rho_bar))", "incremental_book_average_correlation_delta_gate_exclusive": 0.0, "incremental_candidate_average_correlation_gate": 0.0, "incremental_gates_alone_establish_objective_ceiling": false, "incremental_gates_alone_establish_objective_floor": false, "legacy_global_zero_correlation_reference": 0.0, "psd_floor_at_target_n": -0.07692307692307693, "psd_floor_note": "Average pairwise correlation cannot fall below -1/(N-1) for any real correlation matrix. At fourteen sleeves that floor is far from binding, which is why a negative average is arithmetically available here and is not at 250 sleeves.", "quality_precondition_at_the_gate": { "note": "What the tightened correlation gate alone does NOT buy. At the gate exactly, reaching each end of the objective band requires at least this average standalone Sharpe across fourteen sleeves.", "s_bar_measured_four_curve_basis": 0.464, "s_bar_measured_traded_basis": 0.529, "s_bar_required_for_2.25": 0.6013377943029549, "s_bar_required_for_3.0": 0.8017837257372732 }, "target_sleeve_count": 14 }, "gate_power_audit": { "candidate_return_artifacts_read": 0, "content_hash": "sha256:743c803a4a65869be14957cec1ce0d7737568d26fb3d89278f827dfedd0186fb", "hypothesis_identities_consumed": 0, "path": "artifacts/analysis/admission_gate_power_audit/result.json", "sha256": "0efb66ef4b7f5e497da56fcb2e178a69ef522f69ac4ba7d9b09297c5ae057f42" }, "incremental_gate_scope_policy": { "book_deflated_sharpe": { "admission_role": "MANDATORY_MEASUREMENT_AND_PUBLICATION", "full_union_trial_count_remains_mandatory": true, "maturity_threshold": 0.95, "portfolio_maturity_role": "GATE_AT_0.95", "reason": "Measure and publish full-union book DSR at every admission, but gate it at the portfolio-maturity claim. Incremental admission remains gated by the strictly positive bootstrap lower bound on book-Sharpe delta, PBO, leave-period-out robustness, costs, stress, execution and full trial accounting." }, "correlation": { "average_upper_95_gate_unchanged": 0.1, "book_average_pairwise_correlation_delta_must_be_strictly_negative": true, "candidate_average_to_existing_book_max": 0.0, "global_average_pairwise_correlation": "MANDATORY_MEASUREMENT_AND_TRAJECTORY", "global_objective": -0.03, "ordinary_pair_and_stress_gates_unchanged": true, "reason": "Gate each new sleeve on a strictly negative change in the book's average pairwise correlation and a candidate-to-existing-book average no greater than zero, retain the 95% uncertainty ceiling and pair/stress ceilings, and publish the separate trajectory to -0.03. Do not require the first increment to finish the entire book's diversification objective." } }, "lineage_types": { "boolean_fields": [ "point_in_time_data", "survivorship_control", "corporate_action_control", "direction_locked", "parameters_locked" ], "code_commit_field": "code_commit", "identifier_fields": [ "family_trial_account", "return_identity_id" ], "sha256_fields": [ "preregistration_sha256", "data_manifest_sha256", "diversification_report_sha256" ] }, "objective": { "average_pairwise_correlation_objective": -0.03, "average_pairwise_correlation_objective_note": "An objective, not a gate. -0.03 is the average pairwise correlation at which fourteen sleeves of measured quality reach 2.5. Thresholds are gates and live in 'thresholds'; anything that is not enforced must not sit there wearing a gate's costume.", "backtest_to_forward_haircut": { "measured_on_this_book": "in-sample equal-risk ~1.04 against an honest forward of 0.3-0.9", "note": "The haircut IS the uncertainty. Until the forward record is long enough to speak, every in-sample figure should be read through it, and the range is this book's own published pair rather than a convention borrowed from elsewhere.", "range": [ 1.5, 3.0 ] }, "honest_forward_sharpe_target": 1.5, "implied_in_sample_target": { "at_1_5x_haircut": 2.25, "at_2_0x_haircut": 3.0, "at_3_0x_haircut": 4.5 }, "minimum_new_sleeves": 10, "portfolio_max_drawdown_statistic": "expected_maximum_drawdown", "portfolio_max_drawdown_target": 0.11, "portfolio_p95_max_drawdown_is_gated": false, "portfolio_p95_max_drawdown_must_be_published": true, "portfolio_sharpe_target": [ 2.25, 3.0 ], "portfolio_sharpe_target_unit": "IN-SAMPLE, being the band that an honest forward 1.5 implies at the 1.5x and 2.0x ends of this book's own measured haircut. The headline target is honest_forward_sharpe_target.", "superseded_in_sample_sharpe_target": [ 2.0, 2.5 ], "superseded_reason": "Stated in-sample with no haircut named, and unreachable as a forward result: a verified forward 2.0 at measured per-sleeve quality needs an average pairwise correlation of -0.062 against a PSD floor of -0.077. Withdrawn 2026-08-21 and replaced with an honest FORWARD target of 1.5, which is inside the floor at every plausible quality.", "target_total_sleeves": 14, "targets_are_admission_evidence": false, "what_reaching_it_requires": "Both halves, not either: an average pairwise correlation meaningfully BELOW zero, and per-sleeve quality above roughly 0.60. At today's measured 0.469 the forward target is reachable only at a correlation near -0.030 and only on the optimistic haircut.", "why_this_is_not_a_retreat": "The rarer thing was never the number. A forward Sharpe near 1.5 that is genuinely verifiable -- signed forward record, every killed candidate published in full, gates that provably bite, and the arithmetic showing where the gate falls short of the target printed on the same page as the target -- is harder to find than a 2.5 nobody can check." }, "overlay_policy": { "annualized_vol_target": 0.1, "both_halves_shipped": false, "cost_of_the_halflife_change": { "evaluated_at_stressed_correlation": 0.5, "evidence": "artifacts/analysis/overlay_halflife_decision/result.json", "simulated_expected_max_drawdown_after": 0.10225, "simulated_expected_max_drawdown_before": 0.14213, "status": "SUPERSEDED \u2014 the baseline it prices is not what the crypto sleeve ran", "why_this_is_not_the_live_cost": "The 'before' cell is a 720-DAY halflife in a daily simulation. The crypto sleeve ran 720 BARS on H1, which is 30 days, and the live estimator is windowed and seeded rather than an untruncated recursion. Both figures are kept because they were published; neither is a measurement of the live book." }, "covariance_halflife_days_max": 21, "covariance_halflife_note": "21 is the only tested covariance halflife that holds expected max drawdown at or under the objective at the permitted stressed correlation. Provisional pending execution costing.", "halflife_pending_execution_costing": true, "halflife_unit_defect": { "description": "The halflife was a BAR count while the objective and this contract are stated in DAYS, and a bar is one hour on the crypto H1 sleeve against one session on equity D1. The old 720-bar default therefore meant 30 days to crypto and about 2.9 years to equities. Writing the study's 21 into the bar parameter would have given the crypto sleeve a 21-HOUR covariance halflife.", "found": "2026-08-21", "resolution": "The parameter is cov_halflife_days, converted at the point of use via periods_per_year(tf) / periods_per_year(D1). Pinned by tests/unit/test_cov_halflife_units.py, which fails if the conversion is removed.", "still_ambiguous_and_not_changed": "cov_window_bars (720), cov_min_periods (240) and realized_vol_halflife_bars (240) all carry the same ambiguity, and the realized-leg one is named by a threshold in this contract that says DAYS. No study measured them, so changing them would be an unmeasured change; naming them is the honest alternative to fixing them quietly." }, "implementation": "alphaforge.portfolio.overlay.vol_target", "known_defect": { "description": "The realized leg was measured on the post-overlay account equity curve while the ex-ante leg used pre-overlay optimizer weights. The book runs de-levered, so the realized leg lost max() essentially always and the fast regime detector never fired.", "expected_max_drawdown_cost_at_permitted_stressed_rho": 0.0217, "measured_bind_fraction_as_shipped": 0.000193, "measured_bind_fraction_if_fixed": 0.817626, "site": "src/alphaforge/portfolio/strategy.py (_realized_vol_ann)", "status": "RESOLVED in production. The realized leg is now de-levered per bar before comparison, and tests/unit/test_overlay_realized_leg_scale.py pins the caller's value rather than the function's intention." }, "mandatory_vol_target_overlay": true, "production_cov_halflife_today": 720, "production_cov_halflife_unit": "BARS, and therefore a different duration per sleeve: 720 bars is 30 days on the crypto H1 sleeve and 720 sessions, about 2.86 years, on equity D1. Incoherent by construction and unchanged, because changing it changes the live book.", "production_realized_vol_halflife_today": 240, "production_realized_vol_halflife_unit": "BARS, not days, and NOT converted per calendar. On the crypto H1 sleeve 240 bars is 10 days, not the 240 days the realized_vol_halflife_days_max threshold names. Only the covariance leg gained a calendar conversion; the realized leg still has none. Stated here rather than left implied, because the earlier wording of this block asserted a per-calendar conversion for both legs and that was false for this one.", "realized_vol_halflife_days_max": 240, "realized_vol_halflife_note": "240 is production's value and the value every sweep cell used. No shorter realized-leg halflife was tested, so none is required; this threshold bounds regression, not design.", "realized_vol_leg_must_be_unlevered": true, "reason": "Permitted stressed pairwise correlation of 0.50 implies an expected maximum drawdown near 20% with no overlay and 16.4% with the overlay as shipped today. Correcting the realized-leg scale and shortening the covariance halflife to 21 holds it at 10.2%. The overlay, not a tighter correlation ceiling, is what holds the drawdown objective.", "remaining_gap_to_the_drawdown_objective": "OPEN, and wider than a previous revision of this contract claimed. The measured study holds expected maximum drawdown at 10.2% only with BOTH the realized-leg scale correction (shipped) and the covariance halflife at 21 days (NOT shipped). The halflife change was briefly made the default and has been reverted, for three reasons recorded in full below: it silently re-sizes every live sleeve on the next daily tick; the sweep cell used to price it does not correspond to what the crypto sleeve actually ran; and the live estimator is windowed and seeded, so it does not reproduce the untruncated recursion the sweep simulated. The objective is also an EXPECTED maximum drawdown -- no tested configuration held the 95th percentile at or under 11%, the best being 13.8%.", "sigma_hat_rule": "max(ex_ante, realized)", "why_the_halflife_change_was_reverted": { "also_unresolved": "ledoit_wolf_cc is passed the full unweighted 720-row window to compute its shrinkage intensity. That was conservative while the EWMA's effective sample exceeded 720; at a short halflife it is not, and the shrinkage would be materially too weak.", "cost_basis_did_not_correspond": "The sweep is a DAILY simulation, so its cov=720 cell is a 720-DAY halflife. The live crypto sleeve ran 720 BARS on H1, which is 30 days. Pricing the change against the 720 cell therefore measured a 2.86-year to 21-day move and published it as the cost of a 30-day to 21-day one. Interpolating the artifact's own cells at rho_stress 0.50 puts the crypto sleeve's real improvement near 0.5pp, not 3.98pp.", "estimator_does_not_match_the_simulation": "ewma_cov is windowed at cov_window_bars=720 and seeds S_0 with an equally weighted sample covariance over the oldest min_periods=240 rows, so a large share of the estimate is a flat block the recursion cannot forget inside the window. The sweep simulated an untruncated recursion. The mapping from a swept halflife to the live estimator's effective memory is therefore not one-to-one and was never measured.", "found_by": "adversarial audit, 2026-08-21, after the change had been deployed", "live_blast_radius": "No call site passes cov_halflife_days: the crypto loop (cli/paper_cmds.py), the AlphaTrend gauntlet and the AlphaMax walk-forward all take the default. The walk-forwards are regenerated by the daily ticks and live_cycle.py submits the last leg's weights straight to the broker, so a default change is a trade on every sleeve at once, not a configuration edit. The commit that made it claimed 'nothing was re-run', which was wrong in the direction that mattered.", "the_mapping_is_now_measured": { "consequence": "If the drawdown study's finding holds -- shorter covariance memory reduces expected maximum drawdown -- the halflife IS the instrument on both sleeves, and it must be asked for BELOW the window rather than at 21 days where truncation has already begun. It is also the better of the two routes: 7 days at the production window gives 7.0 days of memory on ~475 effective rows, while shortening the window to 240 bars gives ~8 days on ~107 rows. Four times the effective sample for comparable memory, which also keeps ledoit_wolf_cc's T=720 approximation far closer to valid. That approximation is where the remaining exposure sits: at a 21-day halflife on equity the effective sample is 60.6 rows against a T of 720.", "correction": "An earlier revision of this block said the parameter was 'nearly inert' on crypto and named cov_window_bars as the only lever. That was withdrawn the same day: it came from sampling only 21 days and up, where every result is truncated into a 20-25 day band by the window. Below the window the halflife works.", "evidence": "artifacts/analysis/live_covariance_memory/result.json", "finding": "The estimator's memory is bounded by cov_window_bars, so the halflife is faithful BELOW the window and truncated above it. On the crypto H1 sleeve the 720-bar window is 30 days: 7 days requested delivers 7.0, 14 delivers 14.0, but 30 delivers 22.0 and 720 delivers 24.9. On the equity D1 sleeve the same window is 720 SESSIONS, so the parameter is faithful across the practical range and only the legacy 720-day setting is truncated, to 529 days." }, "what_would_make_it_shippable": "Measure the halflife on the LIVE estimator per sleeve, on each sleeve's own calendar, with the window, the seed and the shrinkage in the loop, and pass the value explicitly at the profile that measured it rather than as a global default." } }, "pbo_policy": { "measured_status": "MEASURED", "never_report_not_defined_as_zero": true, "single_identity_status": "NOT_DEFINED_SINGLE_IDENTITY", "single_identity_value_must_be_null": true }, "prospective_scope": { "applies_only_to_identity_reservations_after_effective_hash": true, "effective": true, "effective_contract_content_hash": "sha256:bf175acfebead6fdfaa3d0f0f8380636797e468eb071fa20beae12f44d55ddb5", "effective_on_or_after_reservation_ordinal": 229, "known_candidates_may_not_be_regraded": true, "legacy_identities_retired_and_ineligible": 228, "owner_promotion_record": "config/admission_v7_promotion.json", "promotion_requirements": [ "INDEPENDENT_TEST_SUITE_PASSES", "PUBLIC_GATE_PROJECTION_RECONCILES", "TRIAL_BUDGET_V7_IS_HASH_BOUND", "OWNER_PROMOTION_RECORDED" ] }, "rationale": "docs/design/ADMISSION_V7.md", "required_lineage": [ "preregistration_sha256", "data_manifest_sha256", "diversification_report_sha256", "code_commit", "family_trial_account", "return_identity_id", "point_in_time_data", "survivorship_control", "corporate_action_control", "direction_locked", "parameters_locked" ], "required_robustness": [ "walk_forward", "purged", "embargoed", "untouched_holdout", "parameter_perturbation", "regime_stress", "correlation_instability", "leave_one_period_out", "mean_zero_candidate_control", "family_wise_trial_accounting", "deterministic_rerun", "correlation_confidence_intervals", "crisis_conditional_dependence", "tail_co_loss", "execution_replay", "capacity_stress", "canonical_diversification_report", "book_level_deflation", "overlay_replay" ], "retired_admission_gates": { "average_pairwise_correlation_max": { "reason": "A final global level was path-dependent when applied to the first incremental sleeve. Replaced by strict candidate-to-book and global-improvement gates while the -0.03 portfolio objective remains published.", "retired_in": "v7-proposed", "value": 0.0 }, "book_deflated_sharpe_min": { "reason": "Re-scoped to portfolio maturity. It remains a mandatory full-union measurement at every admission and remains the 0.95 gate before a mature portfolio claim.", "retired_in": "v7-proposed", "value": 0.95 } }, "schema": "canli.alphac-sleeve-admission-contract.v7", "significance_policy": { "correlation_observations_decoupled": "minimum_correlation_observations is separate from minimum_oos_observations because they measure different things: a candidate's own sample is the candidate's to supply, while the correlation window is its intersection with the BOOK. Tying them together made admission impossible for a reason that had nothing to do with any candidate -- v6 briefly required 756 correlation observations against a book that can supply 728 on its blessed basis and 177 on its live-forward one.", "minimum_oos_observations_raised_from": 252, "minimum_oos_observations_reason": "Raised to three years because the binding constraint of this whole programme is an average pairwise correlation, and a correlation measured over 252 observations carries a sampling error near 0.063 -- twice the size of the -0.03 effect the objective turns on. Gating a number the sample cannot resolve is not a strict gate. Paired with average_pairwise_correlation_upper_95_max, which gates the bound rather than the point estimate.", "newey_west_t_min": 0.25, "newey_west_t_min_role": "sign gate", "newey_west_t_ratio_min": 0.6, "newey_west_t_ratio_role": "autocorrelation-inflation gate", "primary_significance_gate": "book_sharpe_delta_lower_95_min_exclusive", "reason": "v4 declared net_sharpe_min 0.40, newey_west_t_min 2.0 and minimum_oos_observations 252 together. Because t is approximately Sharpe * sqrt(years), a candidate at the declared Sharpe floor needed 25 years of out-of-sample data to clear the t floor, and at the declared 252-observation minimum the pair demanded a standalone Sharpe of 2.0 -- five times the floor a reader of the config would see. v5 lowered the Sharpe floor to 0.15 and left the t floor at 2.0, raising the hidden requirement to 178 years. The t floor, not the Sharpe floor, had been doing the rejecting all along. It is now set where it does what it is for -- excluding wrong-signed and indistinguishable-from-zero results -- and load_admission_contract refuses any contract whose three significance floors cannot all be met at once, so this class of error cannot recur.", "self_consistency_is_enforced_at_load": "load_admission_contract refuses any contract whose significance floors cannot all be satisfied at once. It checks two pairs: net_sharpe_min against newey_west_t_min at minimum_oos_observations, and net_sharpe_min against deflated_sharpe_min solved at n_trials=2. Both pairs were violated before v6, in the same way and undetected, which is why the check is structural rather than a corrected number.", "why_a_standalone_bar_is_the_wrong_instrument": "When correlation binds, standalone Sharpe does not rank a candidate's portfolio value: a Sharpe 0.25 sleeve at correlation -0.05 beats a Sharpe 0.60 sleeve at +0.30. The gate that decides admission is therefore the bootstrap LOWER bound on the book-Sharpe improvement, which prices edge and correlation together, and it is strictly harder to game than either input alone." }, "status": "IN_FORCE", "thresholds": { "absolute_beta_max": 0.1, "average_pairwise_correlation_upper_95_max": 0.1, "book_average_pairwise_correlation_delta_max_exclusive": 0.0, "book_deflated_sharpe_must_be_measured": true, "book_expected_max_drawdown_max": 0.11, "book_expected_shortfall_delta_max": 0.0, "book_max_drawdown_delta_max": 0.01, "book_sharpe_delta_lower_95_min_exclusive": 0.0, "book_sharpe_delta_min_exclusive": 0.0, "candidate_average_correlation_to_existing_book_max": 0.0, "capacity_curve_min_points": 3, "capacity_minimum_stressed_fill_ratio": 0.95, "capacity_usd_min": 500000, "covariance_halflife_days_max": 21, "deflated_sharpe_must_be_measured": true, "minimum_correlation_observations": 504, "minimum_execution_scenarios_per_dimension": 3, "minimum_leave_one_period_out_book_sharpe_delta_exclusive": 0.0, "minimum_oos_observations": 756, "minimum_stressed_oos_observations": 63, "net_sharpe_min": 0.15, "newey_west_t_min": 0.25, "newey_west_t_ratio_min": 0.6, "ordinary_pairwise_correlation_max": 0.35, "pairwise_correlation_upper_95_max": 0.35, "pbo_max": 0.2, "realized_vol_halflife_days_max": 240, "realized_vol_leg_must_be_unlevered": true, "stressed_pairwise_correlation_max": 0.5, "stressed_pairwise_correlation_upper_95_max": 0.5, "stressed_sharpe_min": 0.15 } }, "active_trial_policy": { "accounting_last_reconciled": "2026-08-22", "budget_last_reviewed": "2026-08-21", "budget_review": { "authorization": "Explicit owner decision to fund the fourteen-sleeve programme, taken with the evidence cost on the table rather than inferred afterwards.", "authorized_by": "owner, 2026-08-21", "cost_of_this_decision": { "annualized_deflated_benchmark_after_154_trials": 1.3041, "annualized_deflated_benchmark_before": 1.2074, "applies_to": "every sleeve in the book, not only the new candidates. Deflation is a property of the search, and the search is the book's.", "evidence": "artifacts/analysis/trial_budget_cost/result.json", "increase": 0.0967, "the_honest_caveat": "This assumes the measured 6.5% hit rate holds for families that have never been tested. It is an assumption, not a measurement, and the atlas families are deliberately unlike the ones that produced that rate. If the true rate is half of it, ten sleeves cost twice the trials and the budget will bind before the target is reached. Reaching the ceiling without ten admissions is a RESULT, not a failure of the budget, and the book stays smaller.", "why_it_is_affordable": "The deflated benchmark grows with the LOGARITHM of the trial count, so 154 trials on top of 162 move it by roughly 0.10 annualized. Sample length is the far stronger lever, which is why v6 raising minimum_oos_observations from 252 to 756 matters more to admissibility than this budget does." }, "headroom": 158, "hypothesis_identities_at_review": 162, "new_budget": 320, "next_tripwire": "At 320 recorded hypothesis identities, registration pauses again and requires a fresh owner review. Any single family exceeding 40 identities also pauses for review, so the budget cannot be consumed by one line of enquiry that is not working.", "prior_budget": 160, "rationale": "Ten new sleeves at the measured 6.5% hit rate (3 survivors from 46 tested candidates) implies about 154 trials. The budget is set at 320 identities, which funds that with a small margin and stops well short of an open-ended search. It is a CEILING, not a plan: the campaign closes at whatever count the evidence stops justifying.", "status_token_note": "ACTIVE is the canonical token the trial tripwire recognises. The prospective nature of this budget is recorded here rather than encoded in the status, so no guard is left unable to read the state it governs.", "what_did_not_change": "A target still never creates a sleeve. Fourteen is reached only if ten or more new identities independently clear every admission gate in config/sleeve_admission_contract.json; otherwise the book remains smaller. The budget buys permission to look, not permission to admit." }, "definitions": { "hypothesis_identity": "A distinct economic or parameter identity after removing only start and end measurement-window keys.", "immutable_execution_record": "One append-only, config-hash-unique measurement row. Rolling-window remeasurements remain records.", "window_only_remeasurement": "A later record whose config differs from an existing identity only in start or end. It remains public but does not inflate DSR selection N." }, "hypothesis_identity_budget": 400, "ledger_scope_correction": { "authorized_budget_unchanged": 320, "budget_remaining": 146, "current_hypothesis_identities": 174, "new_experiments_run": 0, "prior_reported_hypothesis_identities": 162, "reason": "Canonical union discovery scanned only top-level var* profiles and omitted four durable experiment ledgers filed with legacy result artifacts. The ledgers are selection evidence and have been restored to N. Withdrawn archive_broken_prices ledgers remain excluded.", "recorded_at": "2026-08-22", "recovered_ledger_paths": [ "artifacts/exp1/20260625T075446Z/experiments.jsonl", "artifacts/exp4/20260625T103226Z/experiments.jsonl", "artifacts/exp4/smoke_20260625T102142Z/experiments.jsonl", "artifacts/grand_backtest/20260616T143620Z/experiments.jsonl" ], "recovered_legacy_hypothesis_identities": 12, "status": "CORRECTED" }, "observed_hypothesis_identities": 228, "primary_ledger_record_audit_ceiling": 360, "prospective_v7_review": { "admission_v7_effective_contract_hash": "sha256:bf175acfebead6fdfaa3d0f0f8380636797e468eb071fa20beae12f44d55ddb5", "all_new_identities_enter_complete_union_deflation": true, "authorized_by": "Arhan Canli, owner, 2026-08-23", "book_dsr_required_at_400_and_756_rows": 2.2920431371526955, "current_probability_at_least_ten": 0.07696557149911874, "current_remaining_identities": 92, "effective_on_or_after_reservation_ordinal": 229, "identities_are_permission_to_test_not_permission_to_admit": true, "no_legacy_identity_reopened": true, "owner_promotion_record": "config/admission_v7_promotion.json", "planning_probability_is_not_a_forecast": true, "promotion_requires_admission_v7_content_hash": true, "prospective_probability_at_least_ten": 0.690428032795991, "prospective_remaining_identities": 172, "reason": "Ledger reconciliation raised the observed union from 162 to 228 without running new experiments, leaving only 92 identities under the 320 ceiling. At the previously declared planning rate of 3/46, that headroom has an exact binomial probability of only 7.70% of producing ten successes. A ceiling of 400 restores 172 prospective identities and a 69.04% planning probability under the same explicitly uncertain assumption.", "single_family_tripwire": 40, "staged_hard_reviews": [ 320, 360, 400 ], "status": "IN_FORCE" }, "research_status": "ACTIVE_STAGED_PROSPECTIVE_BUDGET", "schema": "alphac.trial-accounting-policy.v2", "summary_trial_debt_correction": { "already_reconciled_before_this_correction": 24, "authorized_budget_unchanged": 320, "budget_remaining": 92, "current_hypothesis_identities": 228, "evidence": "artifacts/audit/trial_debt_reconciliation.json", "new_experiments_run": 0, "newly_reconciled_in_this_correction": 54, "prior_reported_hypothesis_identities": 174, "reason": "Seven persisted historical studies reported named return configurations but bypassed the durable experiment ledger. The source-bound v2 reconciliation charges every measured parameter identity, including 32 AlphaMax robustness-grid configurations and AlphaTrend's post-hoc selector configurations; rounded summaries are never used to assert duplicate economic identity.", "recorded_at": "2026-08-22", "recovered_historical_hypothesis_identities": 54, "source_identity_counts": { "alphamax_construction": 8, "alphamax_hyst_live": 6, "alphamax_turnover": 8, "alphamax_weighting": 48, "alphatrend_arp": 3, "alphatrend_breadth": 4, "crypto_vrp_proxy": 1 }, "status": "CORRECTED" }, "v7_power_audit_binding": { "content_hash": "sha256:743c803a4a65869be14957cec1ce0d7737568d26fb3d89278f827dfedd0186fb", "path": "artifacts/analysis/admission_gate_power_audit/result.json", "sha256": "0efb66ef4b7f5e497da56fcb2e178a69ef522f69ac4ba7d9b09297c5ae057f42" }, "window_only_keys": [ "start", "end" ] }, "assertions": { "candidate_return_artifacts_read_by_power_audit": 0, "external_performance_claim_created": false, "known_results_regraded": false, "legacy_identity_reuse_permitted": false, "trial_budget_is_permission_to_test_not_permission_to_admit": true }, "authorization": "Owner directive in the active 2026-08-23 goal session: recalibrate gates where needed, preserve rigor, and proceed.", "content_hash": "sha256:ddd107351033e9bda8f41065a811d9e5e5edccf32006b311d39a65d8ace918f3", "effective_contract_hash": "sha256:bf175acfebead6fdfaa3d0f0f8380636797e468eb071fa20beae12f44d55ddb5", "effective_on_or_after_reservation_ordinal": 229, "legacy_identities_retired_without_regrading": 228, "owner": "Arhan Canli", "promoted_at": "2026-08-23", "schema": "canli.alphac-admission-v7-promotion.v1", "source_bindings": { "contract_proposal": { "path": "config/sleeve_admission_contract_v7_proposed.json", "sha256": "ec929dba5beeca64644e5ecc257bc883d6598c077a718072148d2692020ff98c" }, "power_audit": { "path": "artifacts/analysis/admission_gate_power_audit/result.json", "sha256": "0efb66ef4b7f5e497da56fcb2e178a69ef522f69ac4ba7d9b09297c5ae057f42" }, "trial_policy_proposal": { "path": "config/trial_accounting_v7_proposed.json", "sha256": "91df93fd2efe119a3d1e7a865fd16e7513ec4ffe7339c44f4a548422479dec67" }, "trial_policy_v1_archive": { "path": "config/archive/trial_accounting_v1_superseded.json", "sha256": "e7c4c3372e3482acb6f0b852a962f91e335a7655c4bd33f8c02d74e9862195fd" }, "v6_archive": { "path": "config/archive/sleeve_admission_contract_v6_superseded.json", "sha256": "5f628a44ae73ed9c412b225ac9dc56c4e59c1bc0645e2ebde251501e938b9932" } } }, "source_sha256": "5e7d95e9b6265c229b6e1604f96bc9e1b0db59e282ec0be33740b8dda3b552a5", "public_path": "/glassbox/admission_v7_promotion.json", "source_path": "config/admission_v7_promotion.json" }, "external_publication": { "registry": { "schema": "canli.alphac-external-publication-registry.v2", "owner_and_author": "Arhan Canli", "status": "PREPARATION_ONLY_NO_EXTERNAL_SUBMISSIONS_CLAIMED", "platform_policy": { "finance_preprint": "ZENODO_PUBLICATION_PREPRINT_RECORD", "ssrn_route": "EXCLUDED_PENDING_DIRECT_AUTHOR_ELIGIBILITY_CONFIRMATION_OR_POLICY_CHANGE", "reproducibility_bundle_doi": "ZENODO", "optional_methodology_preprint": [ "ARXIV_Q_FIN_SUBJECT_TO_SCOPE_AND_ENDORSEMENT" ], "osf_preprints_route": "EXCLUDED_PENDING_PAPER_SPECIFIC_AUTHORSHIP_AND_PROVIDER_SCOPE_REVIEW", "duplicate_doi_for_same_object_permitted": false, "shotgun_duplicate_submission_permitted": false, "peer_review_may_be_claimed_from_repository_posting": false }, "shared_blocker_definitions": { "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE": "Exact result objects are released, but the redistribution-safe raw-input inventory and source-license review remain incomplete.", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED": "The result has not been reproduced from a fresh environment using only released instructions.", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING": "No named independent human or organization has reproduced the result.", "OPEN_MATERIAL_REPLAY_CORRECTION": "The selected crypto-carry artifact materially diverges from the current-state replay. The surviving full path is now exhaustively compared, but the omitted historical code and derived-input snapshots make a unique additive causal split impossible. A prospective snapshot control cannot repair that omission; external submission remains prohibited pending a preregistered snapshot-bound current run, corrected bundle, and independent review." }, "sleeves": [ { "key": "alphaforge_crypto_carry", "bundle_slug": "crypto-carry", "title": "Crypto Perpetual Carry: Trial Lineage, Capacity Failure, and Live Evidence Boundary", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/CRYPTO_CARRY_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/crypto-carry/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "LOCAL_SIMULATED_PAPER_NOT_ALPACA", "submission_blockers": [ "OPEN_MATERIAL_REPLAY_CORRECTION", "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "LIVE_CRYPTO_POSITION_ATTRIBUTION_NOT_DEPLOYED_OR_EXTERNALLY_VERIFIED", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "alphamax_equity_momentum", "bundle_slug": "alphamax", "title": "Equity Momentum Under Complete Trial Accounting: A Selected Survivor and Failed Deep-History Replication", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/ALPHAMAX_EQUITY_MOMENTUM_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/alphamax/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "ALPACA_PAPER_AND_RESEARCH_SIMULATION_SEPARATELY_LABELLED", "submission_blockers": [ "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "CORPORATE_ACTION_CORRECTION_LEDGER_NEEDS_COMPACT_APPENDIX", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "alphatrend_managed_futures", "bundle_slug": "alphatrend", "title": "Managed-Futures Trend as an Unresolved Diversifier: Complete Trial Lineage and Forward Burden of Proof", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/ALPHATREND_MANAGED_FUTURES_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/alphatrend/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "ALPACA_PAPER_AND_RESEARCH_SIMULATION_SEPARATELY_LABELLED", "submission_blockers": [ "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "FUTURES_PROXY_AND_ETF_IMPLEMENTATIONS_REQUIRE_SEPARATE_TABLES", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "alphavintage_macro_surprise", "bundle_slug": "alphavintage", "title": "Point-in-Time Inflation Surprise and the Equity Size Spread: A Corrected Null, a Deployment-Governance Failure, and a Frozen Forward Experiment", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/ALPHAVINTAGE_MACRO_SURPRISE_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/alphavintage/v1.0.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "ALPACA_PAPER_AND_RESEARCH_SIMULATION_SEPARATELY_LABELLED", "submission_blockers": [ "DATA_LICENCE_REVIEW_REQUIRED", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "crypto_defensive", "bundle_slug": "crypto-defensive", "title": "Crypto Defensive Factors: Two Positive Summaries Without Admission Evidence", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/CRYPTO_DEFENSIVE_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/crypto-defensive/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "submission_blockers": [ "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "crypto_momentum", "bundle_slug": "crypto-momentum", "title": "Crypto Momentum: Complete Trial Lineage and Failed Sleeve-Admission Evidence", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/CRYPTO_MOMENTUM_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/crypto-momentum/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "submission_blockers": [ "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "crypto_multifactor_engine", "bundle_slug": "crypto-multifactor-engine", "title": "Crypto Multi-Factor Engine: Seven Trials, Capacity Decay, and No-Deploy Verdict", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/CRYPTO_MULTIFACTOR_ENGINE_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/crypto-multifactor-engine/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "submission_blockers": [ "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "crypto_reversal", "bundle_slug": "crypto-reversal", "title": "Crypto Short-Horizon Reversal: Two Decisive Negative Trials", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/CRYPTO_REVERSAL_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/crypto-reversal/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "submission_blockers": [ "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "crypto_vrp", "bundle_slug": "crypto-vrp", "title": "Crypto Volatility Risk Premium: One Proxy Trial and a Published Null", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/CRYPTO_VRP_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/crypto-vrp/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "submission_blockers": [ "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "energy_inventory", "bundle_slug": "energy-inventory", "title": "Petroleum Inventory Scarcity: One Negative Macro-Commodity Identity", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/ENERGY_INVENTORY_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/energy-inventory/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "submission_blockers": [ "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "equity_insider_activity", "bundle_slug": "equity-insider-activity", "title": "Clustered Insider Purchases: Two Negative Event-Information Trials", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/EQUITY_INSIDER_ACTIVITY_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/equity-insider-activity/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "submission_blockers": [ "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "equity_low_beta", "bundle_slug": "equity-low-beta", "title": "Equity Low Beta: Two Negative Identities and No Defensive Sleeve", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/EQUITY_LOW_BETA_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/equity-low-beta/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "submission_blockers": [ "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "equity_narrative_change", "bundle_slug": "equity-narrative-change", "title": "Annual Risk-Factor Narrative Stability: A Preregistered Null", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/EQUITY_NARRATIVE_CHANGE_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/equity-narrative-change/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "submission_blockers": [ "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "equity_quality", "bundle_slug": "equity-quality", "title": "Equity Fundamental Quality: Eleven Identities and No Validated Sleeve", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/EQUITY_QUALITY_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/equity-quality/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "submission_blockers": [ "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "equity_value_investment", "bundle_slug": "equity-value-investment", "title": "Equity Value, Issuance, and Investment: Thirteen Identities and Unstable Evidence", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/EQUITY_VALUE_INVESTMENT_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/equity-value-investment/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "submission_blockers": [ "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] }, { "key": "macro_economic_trend", "bundle_slug": "macro-economic-trend", "title": "Point-in-Time Macroeconomic Trend: Seven Identities Without a Validated Sleeve", "author": "Arhan Canli", "source_paper": "docs/research/MACRO_ECONOMIC_TREND_LINEAGE.md", "bundle_manifest": "publication/macro-economic-trend/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "state": "BUNDLE_INCOMPLETE", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "submission_blockers": [ "REDISTRIBUTION_SAFE_RAW_DATA_INVENTORY_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING" ] } ], "claim_boundary": "This registry is a preparation ledger. It claims no SSRN, Zenodo, arXiv or OSF submission, DOI, moderation outcome, peer review, citation or independent replication. SSRN is not a current target under the eligibility guidance observed on 2026-08-24." }, "evidence_catalog": { "schema": "canli.alphac-sleeve-publication-evidence-catalog.v1", "claim_boundary": "This catalog maps already persisted research evidence into preparation bundles. It does not reopen returns, register trials, establish clean-environment replay, or grant redistribution rights to raw vendor data.", "sleeves": { "alphaforge_crypto_carry": { "trial_family_key": "crypto_carry", "result_objects": [ { "source": "artifacts/walkforward/crypto_carry_wk/walkforward.json", "release_name": "selected_walkforward.json", "role": "selected weekly carry walk-forward" }, { "source": "artifacts/grand_backtest/20260616T143620Z/matrix.json", "release_name": "grand_matrix.json", "role": "complete multi-factor matrix and PBO context" }, { "source": "artifacts/research/crypto_carry_2022_tail.json", "release_name": "tail_stress_2022.json", "role": "persisted 2022 tail diagnosis" }, { "source": "artifacts/probe/crypto_carry_frozen_current_code_replay/walkforward.json", "release_name": "current_state_replay.json", "role": "materially divergent current-code/current-derived-input replay" }, { "source": "artifacts/probe/crypto_carry_frozen_current_code_replay/replay_receipt.json", "release_name": "current_state_replay_receipt.json", "role": "truthful non-exact replay receipt and input-freeze audit" }, { "source": "artifacts/probe/crypto_carry_replay_drift/first_rebalance_attribution.json", "release_name": "first_rebalance_attribution.json", "role": "exact first-decision universe-drift attribution" }, { "source": "artifacts/probe/crypto_carry_replay_drift/full_path_attribution.json", "release_name": "full_path_attribution.json", "role": "complete surviving-ledger comparison and causal-identifiability boundary" }, { "source": "artifacts/audit/walkforward_input_snapshot_protocol.json", "release_name": "prospective_input_snapshot_protocol.json", "role": "prospective immutable private input-snapshot enforcement receipt" }, { "source": "artifacts/publication/crypto_carry_replay_correction.json", "release_name": "open_replay_correction.json", "role": "material correction and external-submission blocker" } ], "code_bindings": [ "scripts/audit_crypto_carry_2022_tail.py", "scripts/replay_crypto_carry_frozen_inputs.py", "scripts/audit_crypto_carry_first_rebalance_drift.py", "scripts/audit_crypto_carry_full_path_drift.py", "scripts/seal_walkforward_input_snapshot_protocol.py", "scripts/seal_crypto_carry_replay_correction.py", "src/alphaforge/validation/input_snapshot.py", "src/alphaforge/features/library/carry.py", "src/alphaforge/portfolio/strategy.py", "src/alphaforge/execution/paper.py" ], "reproduction_commands": [ "uv run python scripts/audit_crypto_carry_2022_tail.py", "uv run python scripts/replay_crypto_carry_frozen_inputs.py --seal-existing", "uv run python scripts/audit_crypto_carry_first_rebalance_drift.py", "uv run python scripts/audit_crypto_carry_full_path_drift.py", "uv run python scripts/seal_walkforward_input_snapshot_protocol.py", "uv run python scripts/seal_crypto_carry_replay_correction.py" ], "bundle_corrections": [ { "date": "2026-08-23", "status": "OPEN_MATERIAL_CORRECTION_EXTERNAL_SUBMISSION_BLOCKED", "summary": "The selected historical result does not reproduce on the current code/current derived-input state. EOS exactly explains the first sizing difference. Every surviving ledger has now been compared; missing historical code and derived-input snapshots make a unique additive full-path causal split structurally unidentifiable. A prospective private snapshot control is enforced, but cannot repair the historical omission.", "evidence": [ "evidence/current_state_replay_receipt.json", "evidence/first_rebalance_attribution.json", "evidence/full_path_attribution.json", "evidence/prospective_input_snapshot_protocol.json", "evidence/open_replay_correction.json" ] } ] }, "alphamax_equity_momentum": { "trial_family_key": "alphamax_equity_momentum", "result_objects": [ { "source": "artifacts/sweep/alphamax_construction/arms.json", "release_name": "construction_arms.json", "role": "preregistered construction comparison" }, { "source": "artifacts/walkforward/k30_dn_63/walkforward.json", "release_name": "selected_walkforward.json", "role": "selected historical walk-forward" }, { "source": "artifacts/publication/alphamax_upstream_replay_manifest.json", "release_name": "upstream_replay_manifest.json", "role": "rights-withheld fresh-input acquisition and source binding" }, { "source": "artifacts/publication/alphamax_upstream_clean_workspace.json", "release_name": "upstream_clean_workspace.json", "role": "author-run failed exact fresh-vendor strategy reproduction" }, { "source": "artifacts/probe/alphamax_weighting/report.json", "release_name": "weighting_probe.json", "role": "weighting sensitivity" }, { "source": "artifacts/probe/alphamax_betaneutral/report.json", "release_name": "beta_neutral_probe.json", "role": "beta-neutral sensitivity" }, { "source": "artifacts/probe/alphamax_shorttail/report.json", "release_name": "short_tail_probe.json", "role": "short-tail sensitivity" } ], "code_bindings": [ "scripts/probe_alphamax_construction.py", "scripts/probe_alphamax_weighting.py", "scripts/probe_alphamax_betaneutral.py", "scripts/probe_alphamax_shorttail.py", "src/alphaforge/features/library/equity_price.py" ], "reproduction_commands": [ "uv run python scripts/probe_alphamax_construction.py", "uv run python scripts/probe_alphamax_weighting.py", "uv run python 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The separately labelled Alpaca paper sleeve remains a frozen forward experiment rather than validated alpha.", "affiliation": "Canli Capital / AlphaC Algorithms", "author": "Arhan Canli", "blockers": [ "DATA_LICENCE_REVIEW_REQUIRED", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING", "SOURCE_SPECIFIC_LICENSE_AND_REDISTRIBUTION_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE", "OWNER_RELEASE_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED", "REPOSITORY_LICENSE_SELECTION_REQUIRED", "RELEASE_DATE_MUST_BE_SET_AT_PUBLICATION", "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT_AND_MANUSCRIPT_APPROVAL_REQUIRED", "FRESH_CONTEXT_HUMAN_READER_REVIEW_REQUIRED", "TWO_EXTERNAL_DOMAIN_REVIEWS_REQUIRED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_REQUIRED" ], "bundle_slug": "alphavintage", "capital_kind": "ALPACA_PAPER_AND_RESEARCH_SIMULATION_SEPARATELY_LABELLED", "data_rights": { "data_manifest_license_review_complete": false, "raw_third_party_rows_released": false, "source_classes": [ "PHILADELPHIA_FED_RTDSM", "YAHOO_FINANCE_MARKET_DATA", "ALPACA_PRIVATE_ACCOUNT" ], "source_mapping_complete": true }, "editorial_priority": 1, "keywords": [ "point-in-time data", "inflation surprise", "equity size spread", "research reproducibility", "backtest correction", "deployment governance", "quantitative finance" ], "peer_reviewed": false, "planned_targets": [ { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "PAPER_PREPRINT", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "CITABLE_ARCHIVAL_PAPER_RECORD" }, { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "REPRODUCIBILITY_BUNDLE", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "DISTINCT_CODE_DATA_PROVENANCE_RECORD" } ], "public_canonical": "https://canlicapital.com/publication/alphavintage/v1.0.0/paper", "registry_key": "alphavintage_macro_surprise", "release_state": "BLOCKED_PREPARATION_ONLY", "review": { "author_audit": { "answers_completed": 0, "approved": false, "path": "artifacts/publication/author_technical_audits/alphavintage/author_audit.json", "sha256": "40207fa5c284ca3d7995572f46598aaed1cdf4627f0c369332b2689f0f94d42e" }, "external_domain_reviews_completed": 0, "external_reviewer_packet": { "assigned_reviewers": 0, "completed_reviews": 0, "path": "artifacts/publication/external_reviewer_packets/alphavintage/review_request.json", "sha256": "46a891dac0e84cf9f9cfefbc5093489dd5c2be73ed7f4116bbbd7a6bc6eb1f06" }, "formal_peer_review_claimed": false, "fresh_context_reader": { "path": "artifacts/publication/fresh_context_reader_packets/alphavintage/reader_review.json", "reader_assigned": false, "review_completed": false, "sha256": "e41bfce7456fa10664181df4bdb936513c20261e88c4ca9653afd052d76aaa33" }, "independent_replications_completed": 0, "required_claim_levels": [ "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT", "FRESH_CONTEXT_READER_REVIEW", "EXTERNAL_DOMAIN_REVIEW", "INDEPENDENT_REPLICATION" ], "state": "ZERO_EXTERNAL_REVIEWS" }, "source_objects": { "bundle_manifest": { "path": "publication/alphavintage/v1.0.0/bundle_manifest.json", "sha256": "a3456d74dbf961faa5240bd4b4a2f0aecd282f2b7f41c256dc8f83b5f7498d79" }, "paper_json": { "path": "publication/alphavintage/v1.0.0/paper.json", "sha256": "bcba84214d3ef267acdaf1a0100573e2a30af0996d07494c56dc3d08b8913932" }, "paper_pdf": { "path": "publication/alphavintage/v1.0.0/paper.pdf", "sha256": "1a008c6c32b3b8fc313515f636d986be678187ef92a44c0a9d6651585c790f47" } }, "submission_claimed": false, "title": "Point-in-Time Inflation Surprise and the Equity Size Spread: A Corrected Null, a Deployment-Governance Failure, and a Frozen Forward Experiment", "version": "1.0.0", "wave": 1 }, { "abstract": "AlphaForge studies cross-sectional carry in USDT-margined perpetual futures, ranking contracts by the negative trailing mean of observed funding: expensive longs rank as shorts and negative-funding contracts as longs. This paper reconciles all 25 charged hypothesis identities. The historical `carry_fund_21` walk-forward grew a simulated $100,000 to $138,236.27 from 2022-02-08 through 2026-06-01, with Sharpe 0.6766 and maximum drawdown 19.60%, but failed its DSR gate. A later eight-configuration matrix reported PBO 0.8818, no deflated winner, and a capacity sweep context rather than carry capacity; the sole carry-tilted arm had Sharpe 0.0618. An exact-timestamp current-state replay on 2026-08-23 does not reproduce the selection: final equity is $103,335.16, Sharpe 0.1065, and maximum drawdown 20.98%. At the first decision, the historical 22 names included EOS while the current 21 did not; restoring EOS reproduces all ten historical order quantities. A zero-trial audit binds every surviving ledger: overlapping prices, position and funding marks, and funding rates agree, but holdings and state paths diverge. Because the historical run sealed neither its exact code nor derived-input snapshots, a unique additive attribution of the multi-year gap is structurally unidentifiable. Prospective private snapshots are now enforced but cannot repair that omission. The material correction therefore remains open and external submission is blocked. The forward record is weaker: AlphaForge is a local simulated paper broker, not an Alpaca account or externally attested record. Its first configuration was signal-dead; funding cashflows were omitted until a forward-only repair; fewer than half of intended hourly cycles completed; and the stored universe remains frozen at 2026-06-01. Crypto carry is therefore an incumbent experiment with a plausible mechanism, severe selection and capacity evidence, known operational defects, and an unmet forward burden of proof, not a validated sleeve.", "affiliation": "Canli Capital / AlphaC Algorithms", "author": "Arhan Canli", "blockers": [ "OPEN_MATERIAL_REPLAY_CORRECTION", "SOURCE_SPECIFIC_LICENSE_AND_REDISTRIBUTION_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE", "LIVE_CRYPTO_POSITION_ATTRIBUTION_NOT_DEPLOYED_OR_EXTERNALLY_VERIFIED", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING", "OWNER_RELEASE_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED", "REPOSITORY_LICENSE_SELECTION_REQUIRED", "RELEASE_DATE_MUST_BE_SET_AT_PUBLICATION", "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT_AND_MANUSCRIPT_APPROVAL_REQUIRED", "FRESH_CONTEXT_HUMAN_READER_REVIEW_REQUIRED", "TWO_EXTERNAL_DOMAIN_REVIEWS_REQUIRED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_REQUIRED" ], "bundle_slug": "crypto-carry", "capital_kind": "LOCAL_SIMULATED_PAPER_NOT_ALPACA", "data_rights": { "data_manifest_license_review_complete": false, "raw_third_party_rows_released": false, "source_classes": [ "BINANCE_EXCHANGE_MARKET_DATA" ], "source_mapping_complete": true }, "editorial_priority": 2, "keywords": [ "crypto perpetual futures", "funding rate", "carry", "trial accounting", "research reproducibility" ], "peer_reviewed": false, "planned_targets": [ { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "PAPER_PREPRINT", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "CITABLE_ARCHIVAL_PAPER_RECORD" }, { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "REPRODUCIBILITY_BUNDLE", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "DISTINCT_CODE_DATA_PROVENANCE_RECORD" } ], "public_canonical": "https://canlicapital.com/publication/crypto-carry/v0.1.0/paper", "registry_key": "alphaforge_crypto_carry", "release_state": "BLOCKED_PREPARATION_ONLY", "review": { "author_audit": { "answers_completed": 0, "approved": false, "path": "artifacts/publication/author_technical_audits/crypto-carry/author_audit.json", "sha256": "47c00894435712bfbe46ea72b5126f0c6eea42fb85fe9779bf66a9db510ac8ed" }, "external_domain_reviews_completed": 0, "external_reviewer_packet": { "assigned_reviewers": 0, "completed_reviews": 0, "path": "artifacts/publication/external_reviewer_packets/crypto-carry/review_request.json", "sha256": "6caf3f69611145fea606b8c73d4526e7da6d0af5ffcf8e3e3a5f97176ef00c1b" }, "formal_peer_review_claimed": false, "fresh_context_reader": { "path": "artifacts/publication/fresh_context_reader_packets/crypto-carry/reader_review.json", "reader_assigned": false, "review_completed": false, "sha256": "1349ea6ad5e66567a950907c53eb8cb252bccc39e2a025f6d984103d0fc175fd" }, "independent_replications_completed": 0, "required_claim_levels": [ "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT", "FRESH_CONTEXT_READER_REVIEW", "EXTERNAL_DOMAIN_REVIEW", "INDEPENDENT_REPLICATION" ], "state": "ZERO_EXTERNAL_REVIEWS" }, "source_objects": { "bundle_manifest": { "path": "publication/crypto-carry/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "sha256": "14f6271865ffc87d1a7f784a4b855c92e2eccd8bb16e523423d9e6e7cf6b226d" }, "paper_json": { "path": "publication/crypto-carry/v0.1.0/paper.json", "sha256": "3f59101f153c4ecd54ce580d6d36d93c38af7afc0ae00853b621687135ac197e" }, "paper_pdf": { "path": "publication/crypto-carry/v0.1.0/paper.pdf", "sha256": "93c315aebf3262ae195f7475ce668ceed47290c62549ba707cf8544ab795e421" } }, "submission_claimed": false, "title": "Crypto Perpetual Carry: Trial Lineage, Capacity Failure, and Live Evidence Boundary", "version": "0.1.0", "wave": 1 }, { "abstract": "AlphaMax is ALPHAC's US-equity long/short momentum program. Its canonical signal is 12-minus-1 cross-sectional momentum: rank securities by split-adjusted return from approximately twelve months ago through one month ago, then hold a dollar-neutral long/short portfolio. This paper does not present a single favourable backtest as proof. It reconciles the entire charged family: 115 distinct hypothesis identities recorded from 2026-06-20 through 2026-08-17 across the primary and Sharadar research ledgers. The evidence is deliberately uncomfortable. A frozen 2023\u20132026 construction reported net Sharpe 0.91 and maximum drawdown 8.68% in the persisted deployed-path artifact. The later, preregistered 2005\u20132026 replication reported net Sharpe approximately -0.05 and a drawdown exceeding one third, failing its DSR and return gates. Construction studies did not rescue the family: a 4-by-4 weighting and breadth grid failed its family-wise Reality Check, and beta-neutral, volatility-scaling, and short-tail modifications were not adopted. The correct claim is therefore not \u201cmomentum is proven.\u201d It is that AlphaMax is a live paper research sleeve with a plausible mechanism, a selected short-window survivor, a failed deep-history replication, and an explicit forward burden of proof.", "affiliation": "Canli Capital / AlphaC Algorithms", "author": "Arhan Canli", "blockers": [ "SOURCE_SPECIFIC_LICENSE_AND_REDISTRIBUTION_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE", "CORPORATE_ACTION_CORRECTION_LEDGER_NEEDS_COMPACT_APPENDIX", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING", "OWNER_RELEASE_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED", "REPOSITORY_LICENSE_SELECTION_REQUIRED", "RELEASE_DATE_MUST_BE_SET_AT_PUBLICATION", "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT_AND_MANUSCRIPT_APPROVAL_REQUIRED", "FRESH_CONTEXT_HUMAN_READER_REVIEW_REQUIRED", "TWO_EXTERNAL_DOMAIN_REVIEWS_REQUIRED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_REQUIRED" ], "bundle_slug": "alphamax", "capital_kind": "ALPACA_PAPER_AND_RESEARCH_SIMULATION_SEPARATELY_LABELLED", "data_rights": { "data_manifest_license_review_complete": false, "raw_third_party_rows_released": false, "source_classes": [ "MASSIVE_POLYGON_MARKET_DATA", "NASDAQ_SHARADAR", "YAHOO_FINANCE_MARKET_DATA" ], "source_mapping_complete": true }, "editorial_priority": 3, "keywords": [ "equity momentum", "walk-forward validation", "trial accounting", "corporate actions", "research reproducibility" ], "peer_reviewed": false, "planned_targets": [ { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "PAPER_PREPRINT", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "CITABLE_ARCHIVAL_PAPER_RECORD" }, { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "REPRODUCIBILITY_BUNDLE", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "DISTINCT_CODE_DATA_PROVENANCE_RECORD" } ], "public_canonical": "https://canlicapital.com/publication/alphamax/v0.1.0/paper", "registry_key": "alphamax_equity_momentum", "release_state": "BLOCKED_PREPARATION_ONLY", "review": { "author_audit": { "answers_completed": 0, "approved": false, "path": "artifacts/publication/author_technical_audits/alphamax/author_audit.json", "sha256": "9fee6c663f62f6117351c7424ba9a6a6157dd2da0f85293723a7b86b3f3ba831" }, "external_domain_reviews_completed": 0, "external_reviewer_packet": { "assigned_reviewers": 0, "completed_reviews": 0, "path": "artifacts/publication/external_reviewer_packets/alphamax/review_request.json", "sha256": "dbbcf8f1b257a3cc2b30d24845ed803d751100ada8373c646b83883408318118" }, "formal_peer_review_claimed": false, "fresh_context_reader": { "path": "artifacts/publication/fresh_context_reader_packets/alphamax/reader_review.json", "reader_assigned": false, "review_completed": false, "sha256": "bd872d612c4cfdc327f8356b8bc37044e539b3efff3b00c382b844ad01e54573" }, "independent_replications_completed": 0, "required_claim_levels": [ "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT", "FRESH_CONTEXT_READER_REVIEW", "EXTERNAL_DOMAIN_REVIEW", "INDEPENDENT_REPLICATION" ], "state": "ZERO_EXTERNAL_REVIEWS" }, "source_objects": { "bundle_manifest": { "path": "publication/alphamax/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "sha256": "dde48f36f5d22d2bcd6d6f7d23f05f3c094d2e319d1f68e0e0ce855c4eefd3b8" }, "paper_json": { "path": "publication/alphamax/v0.1.0/paper.json", "sha256": "2b51001980adfe3b72a17464c5aa89bae9a452fd3d85597101f56a2cc472aa90" }, "paper_pdf": { "path": "publication/alphamax/v0.1.0/paper.pdf", "sha256": "eed32d00c9ed1b3bab146f8a220bd46279f9f56b5db88cd7b22e7b0c81eeaa05" } }, "submission_claimed": false, "title": "Equity Momentum Under Complete Trial Accounting: A Selected Survivor and Failed Deep-History Replication", "version": "0.1.0", "wave": 1 }, { "abstract": "AlphaTrend is ALPHAC's managed-futures trend program. It takes volatility-normalized directional positions from medium- and long-horizon price trends across liquid exchange-traded market proxies, then combines them under a covariance-aware risk budget. This paper reconciles all 21 charged hypothesis identities in the family rather than presenting the strongest backtest alone. The result is promising as a diversifier but statistically unresolved. Nineteen identities have finite Sharpe estimates ranging from -0.238 to +0.345. Six identities retain complete walk-forward artifacts, seven retain source-bound summary reports, and eight retain immutable ledger summaries without full curves. Thirteen have persisted artifact-era DSR values; zero clear the 0.95 gate. The 17-market baseline had Sharpe 0.289 and 9.69% vol-matched maximum drawdown in a replica screen. Correlation whitening reduced Sharpe to 0.186, a single 110-session signal reached 0.271, and expanding to 33 ETFs reduced Sharpe to 0.128 while worsening vol-matched drawdown to 14.42%. AlphaTrend remains a paper evidence-collection sleeve, not an established forward result.", "affiliation": "Canli Capital / AlphaC Algorithms", "author": "Arhan Canli", "blockers": [ "SOURCE_SPECIFIC_LICENSE_AND_REDISTRIBUTION_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE", "FUTURES_PROXY_AND_ETF_IMPLEMENTATIONS_REQUIRE_SEPARATE_TABLES", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING", "OWNER_RELEASE_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED", "REPOSITORY_LICENSE_SELECTION_REQUIRED", "RELEASE_DATE_MUST_BE_SET_AT_PUBLICATION", "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT_AND_MANUSCRIPT_APPROVAL_REQUIRED", "FRESH_CONTEXT_HUMAN_READER_REVIEW_REQUIRED", "TWO_EXTERNAL_DOMAIN_REVIEWS_REQUIRED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_REQUIRED" ], "bundle_slug": "alphatrend", "capital_kind": "ALPACA_PAPER_AND_RESEARCH_SIMULATION_SEPARATELY_LABELLED", "data_rights": { "data_manifest_license_review_complete": false, "raw_third_party_rows_released": false, "source_classes": [ "YAHOO_FINANCE_MARKET_DATA" ], "source_mapping_complete": true }, "editorial_priority": 4, "keywords": [ "managed futures", "trend following", "diversification", "forward evidence", "research reproducibility" ], "peer_reviewed": false, "planned_targets": [ { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "PAPER_PREPRINT", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "CITABLE_ARCHIVAL_PAPER_RECORD" }, { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "REPRODUCIBILITY_BUNDLE", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "DISTINCT_CODE_DATA_PROVENANCE_RECORD" } ], "public_canonical": "https://canlicapital.com/publication/alphatrend/v0.1.0/paper", "registry_key": "alphatrend_managed_futures", "release_state": "BLOCKED_PREPARATION_ONLY", "review": { "author_audit": { "answers_completed": 0, "approved": false, "path": "artifacts/publication/author_technical_audits/alphatrend/author_audit.json", "sha256": "b0d616098bf213f73baf289190c9ee7baa579463e80b9546985600c6c2290097" }, "external_domain_reviews_completed": 0, "external_reviewer_packet": { "assigned_reviewers": 0, "completed_reviews": 0, "path": "artifacts/publication/external_reviewer_packets/alphatrend/review_request.json", "sha256": "a8a2e8e5b870e7ff20a33cfc75b1c0e72730eed284851799f4bef7653a5712e9" }, "formal_peer_review_claimed": false, "fresh_context_reader": { "path": "artifacts/publication/fresh_context_reader_packets/alphatrend/reader_review.json", "reader_assigned": false, "review_completed": false, "sha256": "3a6024476bd1d50de4ece61f6d266597516b5a7df7f80a3a6dfe865449d51950" }, "independent_replications_completed": 0, "required_claim_levels": [ "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT", "FRESH_CONTEXT_READER_REVIEW", "EXTERNAL_DOMAIN_REVIEW", "INDEPENDENT_REPLICATION" ], "state": "ZERO_EXTERNAL_REVIEWS" }, "source_objects": { "bundle_manifest": { "path": "publication/alphatrend/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "sha256": "4839834154b4337690da327f395a10abf53fa2eb787a7587e45b2b36ed0a9f2f" }, "paper_json": { "path": "publication/alphatrend/v0.1.0/paper.json", "sha256": "c732385f2a9c5ed985960731f6574b6bc1db4df6e8b103831b2de8303914798b" }, "paper_pdf": { "path": "publication/alphatrend/v0.1.0/paper.pdf", "sha256": "029428552d4fed9e9ea2c79f655c9f239d3546c390f695c42176f4d53fe8ceac" } }, "submission_claimed": false, "title": "Managed-Futures Trend as an Unresolved Diversifier: Complete Trial Lineage and Forward Burden of Proof", "version": "0.1.0", "wave": 1 }, { "abstract": "AlphaForge ran a historical robustness matrix over crypto perpetual futures from 2021-01-01 through 2026-06-01. Seven charged identities belong to the broad multi-factor engine: a baseline rank allocator; ML, regime, and combined overlays; daily rebalancing; a tighter no-trade band; and mean-variance allocation. An eighth matrix identity explicitly selected carry and residual reversal and is accounted for in the separate `crypto_carry` family. None of the seven engine identities cleared its artifact-era DSR gate. Annualized Sharpe ranged from -0.7901 to +0.0424 and maximum drawdown from 13.59% to 33.93%. The four baseline/overlay arms all produced the same Sharpe 0.0424 and DSR 0.2112. Cross-sectional combinatorially symmetric validation across all eight matrix trials reported PBO 0.8818 against a gate below 0.20 and no deflated winner. The matrix verdict was **NO-DEPLOY**. A capital sweep on the regime-gated engine showed Sharpe 0.4009 at $100,000, 0.0424 at $1 million, and -0.3720 at $10 million under the committed impact model. This is useful capacity-failure evidence, not a promise that the $100,000 result is repeatable. The family has no admitted sleeve and no broker-reconciled forward record.", "affiliation": "Canli Capital / AlphaC Algorithms", "author": "Arhan Canli", "blockers": [ "SOURCE_SPECIFIC_LICENSE_AND_REDISTRIBUTION_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING", "OWNER_RELEASE_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED", "REPOSITORY_LICENSE_SELECTION_REQUIRED", "RELEASE_DATE_MUST_BE_SET_AT_PUBLICATION", "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT_AND_MANUSCRIPT_APPROVAL_REQUIRED", "FRESH_CONTEXT_HUMAN_READER_REVIEW_REQUIRED", "TWO_EXTERNAL_DOMAIN_REVIEWS_REQUIRED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_REQUIRED" ], "bundle_slug": "crypto-multifactor-engine", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "data_rights": { "data_manifest_license_review_complete": false, "raw_third_party_rows_released": false, "source_classes": [ "BINANCE_EXCHANGE_MARKET_DATA" ], "source_mapping_complete": true }, "editorial_priority": 5, "keywords": [ "cryptocurrency factors", "probability of backtest overfitting", "capacity", "no-deploy decision", "research reproducibility" ], "peer_reviewed": false, "planned_targets": [ { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "PAPER_PREPRINT", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "CITABLE_ARCHIVAL_PAPER_RECORD" }, { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "REPRODUCIBILITY_BUNDLE", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "DISTINCT_CODE_DATA_PROVENANCE_RECORD" } ], "public_canonical": "https://canlicapital.com/publication/crypto-multifactor-engine/v0.1.0/paper", "registry_key": "crypto_multifactor_engine", "release_state": "BLOCKED_PREPARATION_ONLY", "review": { "author_audit": { "answers_completed": 0, "approved": false, "path": "artifacts/publication/author_technical_audits/crypto-multifactor-engine/author_audit.json", "sha256": "b8218cf7584b9cc9ab538b6f1c3994e9ccce72f6614a425ff51ccb873b76b0f2" }, "external_domain_reviews_completed": 0, "external_reviewer_packet": { "assigned_reviewers": 0, "completed_reviews": 0, "path": "artifacts/publication/external_reviewer_packets/crypto-multifactor-engine/review_request.json", "sha256": "a8d394edba39bad7327a23af7d6c9bdcabcdf6dc140bba16b8128ef0da9059df" }, "formal_peer_review_claimed": false, "fresh_context_reader": { "path": "artifacts/publication/fresh_context_reader_packets/crypto-multifactor-engine/reader_review.json", "reader_assigned": false, "review_completed": false, "sha256": "6672c232e11c403f5fdc9ac9be1c1253dcbacfcc7e778e2e1368e3233173ceda" }, "independent_replications_completed": 0, "required_claim_levels": [ "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT", "FRESH_CONTEXT_READER_REVIEW", "EXTERNAL_DOMAIN_REVIEW", "INDEPENDENT_REPLICATION" ], "state": "ZERO_EXTERNAL_REVIEWS" }, "source_objects": { "bundle_manifest": { "path": "publication/crypto-multifactor-engine/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "sha256": "df49adc22535ffd291a0b645e3013dae72475f138b00484fb81ecb97336bfc2d" }, "paper_json": { "path": "publication/crypto-multifactor-engine/v0.1.0/paper.json", "sha256": "af07c30f9e4ea8f982d2da9cb145ba9a9335bca13f3af337882623b0997a1fe0" }, "paper_pdf": { "path": "publication/crypto-multifactor-engine/v0.1.0/paper.pdf", "sha256": "d472c102ac67d1259c8207ecc79b17bc0b2a6ce64c9b581c11cbb010e42391ae" } }, "submission_claimed": false, "title": "Crypto Multi-Factor Engine: Seven Trials, Capacity Decay, and No-Deploy Verdict", "version": "0.1.0", "wave": 1 }, { "abstract": "This record reconciles two cross-sectional defensive-factor identities in crypto perpetual futures: 720-hour low beta and 720-hour low realized volatility. The immutable ledger summaries report annualized Sharpe ratios of 0.6295 and 0.6946 over 1,247 observations. Those are positive historical summaries, but they are not admission results. Neither identity retains a complete identity-matched curve, maximum drawdown, current-union deflated Sharpe ratio, capacity study, or broker-reconciled forward record. A later low-volatility reopening reproduced a lower Sharpe of 0.5229 and passed four diversification diagnostics, but its venue-reality gate remained outstanding and its DSR remained 0.04. The family therefore contributes zero sleeves.", "affiliation": "Canli Capital / AlphaC Algorithms", "author": "Arhan Canli", "blockers": [ "SOURCE_SPECIFIC_LICENSE_AND_REDISTRIBUTION_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING", "OWNER_RELEASE_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED", "REPOSITORY_LICENSE_SELECTION_REQUIRED", "RELEASE_DATE_MUST_BE_SET_AT_PUBLICATION", "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT_AND_MANUSCRIPT_APPROVAL_REQUIRED", "FRESH_CONTEXT_HUMAN_READER_REVIEW_REQUIRED" ], "bundle_slug": "crypto-defensive", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "data_rights": { "data_manifest_license_review_complete": false, "raw_third_party_rows_released": false, "source_classes": [ "BINANCE_EXCHANGE_MARKET_DATA", "MASSIVE_POLYGON_MARKET_DATA" ], "source_mapping_complete": true }, "editorial_priority": null, "keywords": [ "cryptocurrency", "defensive factors", "null result", "sleeve admission", "research reproducibility" ], "peer_reviewed": false, "planned_targets": [ { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "PAPER_PREPRINT", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "CITABLE_ARCHIVAL_PAPER_RECORD" }, { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "REPRODUCIBILITY_BUNDLE", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "DISTINCT_CODE_DATA_PROVENANCE_RECORD" } ], "public_canonical": "https://canlicapital.com/publication/crypto-defensive/v0.1.0/paper", "registry_key": "crypto_defensive", "release_state": "BLOCKED_PREPARATION_ONLY", "review": { "author_audit": { "answers_completed": 0, "approved": false, "path": "artifacts/publication/author_technical_audits/crypto-defensive/author_audit.json", "sha256": "9a5cda4a94031e3277ef3d302fb2c41380f3e77fe621272dab5140faf9965b78" }, "external_domain_reviews_completed": 0, "external_reviewer_packet": null, "formal_peer_review_claimed": false, "fresh_context_reader": { "path": "artifacts/publication/fresh_context_reader_packets/crypto-defensive/reader_review.json", "reader_assigned": false, "review_completed": false, "sha256": "0dea7e029d86c0ab8674deff02450ac1b34bcf53631a673c47a7d3a925bfe7e7" }, "independent_replications_completed": 0, "required_claim_levels": [ "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT", "FRESH_CONTEXT_READER_REVIEW" ], "state": "ZERO_EXTERNAL_REVIEWS" }, "source_objects": { "bundle_manifest": { "path": "publication/crypto-defensive/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "sha256": "87c5c9c0aa2fd482145caf7000e3191fd1c78e72fb339a70544f0f89a39be330" }, "paper_json": { "path": "publication/crypto-defensive/v0.1.0/paper.json", "sha256": "83bb851e27b5e30b52e747c574c9254f659045800e865d8a9037ea486992c16f" }, "paper_pdf": { "path": "publication/crypto-defensive/v0.1.0/paper.pdf", "sha256": "d2012cf059a5ed9e8089122575a1d65efd02d5d43fa96c8e47a492d84a0a96ce" } }, "submission_claimed": false, "title": "Crypto Defensive Factors: Two Positive Summaries Without Admission Evidence", "version": "0.1.0", "wave": 2 }, { "abstract": "AlphaForge tested cross-sectional and time-series momentum in perpetual-futures prices. This paper reconciles all 18 charged crypto-momentum hypothesis identities recorded from 2026-06-20 through 2026-06-25. The best persisted result, a 21-day time-series momentum signal rebalanced weekly, had annualized Sharpe 0.4863, total return 26.83%, and maximum drawdown 17.02% from 2022-02-08 through 2026-06-01. Its artifact-era Deflated Sharpe Ratio was only 0.0684. The worst result, a seven-day cross-sectional signal rebalanced daily, had Sharpe -1.1690, total return -42.39%, and maximum drawdown 50.64%. All 18 artifacts failed their recorded DSR gate. A separate 2021\u20132026 diagnostic combined three momentum signals and measured Sharpe 0.0780. Its full-sample correlation with a carry diagnostic was +0.0444 and stress correlation was negative, but the combined Sharpe was only 0.0556 and even the reported decorrelated ceiling was 0.1206. Diversification without standalone edge does not earn a sleeve slot. No persisted momentum capacity sweep exists. This family is research-only: it is not validated, admitted, live, or part of an Alpaca paper account.", "affiliation": "Canli Capital / AlphaC Algorithms", "author": "Arhan Canli", "blockers": [ "SOURCE_SPECIFIC_LICENSE_AND_REDISTRIBUTION_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING", "OWNER_RELEASE_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED", "REPOSITORY_LICENSE_SELECTION_REQUIRED", "RELEASE_DATE_MUST_BE_SET_AT_PUBLICATION", "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT_AND_MANUSCRIPT_APPROVAL_REQUIRED", "FRESH_CONTEXT_HUMAN_READER_REVIEW_REQUIRED" ], "bundle_slug": "crypto-momentum", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "data_rights": { "data_manifest_license_review_complete": false, "raw_third_party_rows_released": false, "source_classes": [ "BINANCE_EXCHANGE_MARKET_DATA", "MASSIVE_POLYGON_MARKET_DATA" ], "source_mapping_complete": true }, "editorial_priority": null, "keywords": [ "cryptocurrency momentum", "walk-forward validation", "failed replication", "trial accounting", "research reproducibility" ], "peer_reviewed": false, "planned_targets": [ { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "PAPER_PREPRINT", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "CITABLE_ARCHIVAL_PAPER_RECORD" }, { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "REPRODUCIBILITY_BUNDLE", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "DISTINCT_CODE_DATA_PROVENANCE_RECORD" } ], "public_canonical": "https://canlicapital.com/publication/crypto-momentum/v0.1.0/paper", "registry_key": "crypto_momentum", "release_state": "BLOCKED_PREPARATION_ONLY", "review": { "author_audit": { "answers_completed": 0, "approved": false, "path": "artifacts/publication/author_technical_audits/crypto-momentum/author_audit.json", "sha256": "c70fa0c6acaae4490f6ab44bbea7f15516608b6e6f31287d46be704bbcb831eb" }, "external_domain_reviews_completed": 0, "external_reviewer_packet": null, "formal_peer_review_claimed": false, "fresh_context_reader": { "path": "artifacts/publication/fresh_context_reader_packets/crypto-momentum/reader_review.json", "reader_assigned": false, "review_completed": false, "sha256": "fbe263ecdee2e5fe95f967da681f851088a788ac780b6ec81adc742fa0c400b5" }, "independent_replications_completed": 0, "required_claim_levels": [ "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT", "FRESH_CONTEXT_READER_REVIEW" ], "state": "ZERO_EXTERNAL_REVIEWS" }, "source_objects": { "bundle_manifest": { "path": "publication/crypto-momentum/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "sha256": "68645b594fdbfd7b443c6f0f1f359951ef3c42002fc2c3c529e6247df43540a5" }, "paper_json": { "path": "publication/crypto-momentum/v0.1.0/paper.json", "sha256": "b7b1ca77c2636145ecb5bc984c731e692e9fd77d4f7e2d9764284280ed45b266" }, "paper_pdf": { "path": "publication/crypto-momentum/v0.1.0/paper.pdf", "sha256": "170dff8bfbf47443ad39f8e9dda535a3fc1b85300b14df84682f48ce3650d0e9" } }, "submission_claimed": false, "title": "Crypto Momentum: Complete Trial Lineage and Failed Sleeve-Admission Evidence", "version": "0.1.0", "wave": 2 }, { "abstract": "Two historical identities test whether crypto perpetual-futures returns reverse after common movement is removed. One uses a 24-hour residual signal; the other combines 24- and 72-hour residuals. Both are strongly negative in the implemented direction. Their immutable annualized Sharpe summaries are -2.1527 and -2.1140 across 1,574 observations. The result rejects the tested reversal rule, but it does not automatically establish the opposite momentum trade. Exact curves, maximum drawdowns, costs, funding attribution, and current-union DSR are not preserved at the family level. The family contributes zero sleeves and remains in the trial union as a negative result.", "affiliation": "Canli Capital / AlphaC Algorithms", "author": "Arhan Canli", "blockers": [ "SOURCE_SPECIFIC_LICENSE_AND_REDISTRIBUTION_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING", "OWNER_RELEASE_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED", "REPOSITORY_LICENSE_SELECTION_REQUIRED", "RELEASE_DATE_MUST_BE_SET_AT_PUBLICATION", "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT_AND_MANUSCRIPT_APPROVAL_REQUIRED", "FRESH_CONTEXT_HUMAN_READER_REVIEW_REQUIRED" ], "bundle_slug": "crypto-reversal", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "data_rights": { "data_manifest_license_review_complete": false, "raw_third_party_rows_released": false, "source_classes": [ "BINANCE_EXCHANGE_MARKET_DATA" ], "source_mapping_complete": true }, "editorial_priority": null, "keywords": [ "cryptocurrency reversal", "short-horizon returns", "negative result", "trial accounting", "research reproducibility" ], "peer_reviewed": false, "planned_targets": [ { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "PAPER_PREPRINT", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "CITABLE_ARCHIVAL_PAPER_RECORD" }, { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "REPRODUCIBILITY_BUNDLE", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "DISTINCT_CODE_DATA_PROVENANCE_RECORD" } ], "public_canonical": "https://canlicapital.com/publication/crypto-reversal/v0.1.0/paper", "registry_key": "crypto_reversal", "release_state": "BLOCKED_PREPARATION_ONLY", "review": { "author_audit": { "answers_completed": 0, "approved": false, "path": "artifacts/publication/author_technical_audits/crypto-reversal/author_audit.json", "sha256": "756fdf25907c69263507421e13f11f40b1f85a46b92a0f1178a1ea43da2f1330" }, "external_domain_reviews_completed": 0, "external_reviewer_packet": null, "formal_peer_review_claimed": false, "fresh_context_reader": { "path": "artifacts/publication/fresh_context_reader_packets/crypto-reversal/reader_review.json", "reader_assigned": false, "review_completed": false, "sha256": "2f5fb83359371fa2b49d895c75dd1f8531413e84fd56b519807c33c8e4f203a8" }, "independent_replications_completed": 0, "required_claim_levels": [ "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT", "FRESH_CONTEXT_READER_REVIEW" ], "state": "ZERO_EXTERNAL_REVIEWS" }, "source_objects": { "bundle_manifest": { "path": "publication/crypto-reversal/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "sha256": "c32ad0eccd2549a4c62b88486a9043e11e87ca2e39c63db79eb856ed1d6ea707" }, "paper_json": { "path": "publication/crypto-reversal/v0.1.0/paper.json", "sha256": "4254f723535e73820ba93f0fa563e2c028f5e832563727485412d4dd895c8d0f" }, "paper_pdf": { "path": "publication/crypto-reversal/v0.1.0/paper.pdf", "sha256": "4ce95d68b438bc529aff03eda61b6c11691cea28f927c667616f6b995af1123e" } }, "submission_claimed": false, "title": "Crypto Short-Horizon Reversal: Two Decisive Negative Trials", "version": "0.1.0", "wave": 2 }, { "abstract": "AlphaForge tested one preregistered BTC/ETH volatility-risk-premium timing rule from 2021-03-24 through 2026-06-01. It compared Deribit DVOL closes with a seven-day Yang\u2013Zhang realized- volatility estimate, entered only when the spread exceeded two volatility points, charged 10 basis points on signal turnover, and evaluated 1,492 expanding-window out-of-sample days after a 365-day warmup. The proxy produced annualized Sharpe -0.633, Deflated Sharpe Ratio 0.000, PSR 0.066, skew -9.517, and raw kurtosis 132.65. It failed. The diagnostic also illustrates why average variance premium is not timing alpha. BTC's mean DVOL-minus-realized spread was +0.044 and positive on 72.99% of days; an always-short variance proxy showed Sharpe 2.4818 but skew -5.4874. ETH's corresponding always-short proxy showed Sharpe 0.5309 and skew -10.6795. Those attractive averages coexist with catastrophic left tails. This family is not a sleeve, is not in an Alpaca account, and has no broker-reconciled forward record.", "affiliation": "Canli Capital / AlphaC Algorithms", "author": "Arhan Canli", "blockers": [ "SOURCE_SPECIFIC_LICENSE_AND_REDISTRIBUTION_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING", "OWNER_RELEASE_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED", "REPOSITORY_LICENSE_SELECTION_REQUIRED", "RELEASE_DATE_MUST_BE_SET_AT_PUBLICATION", "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT_AND_MANUSCRIPT_APPROVAL_REQUIRED", "FRESH_CONTEXT_HUMAN_READER_REVIEW_REQUIRED" ], "bundle_slug": "crypto-vrp", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "data_rights": { "data_manifest_license_review_complete": false, "raw_third_party_rows_released": false, "source_classes": [ "BINANCE_EXCHANGE_MARKET_DATA", "DERIBIT_MARKET_DATA" ], "source_mapping_complete": true }, "editorial_priority": null, "keywords": [ "cryptocurrency volatility", "variance risk premium", "proxy design", "null result", "research reproducibility" ], "peer_reviewed": false, "planned_targets": [ { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "PAPER_PREPRINT", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "CITABLE_ARCHIVAL_PAPER_RECORD" }, { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "REPRODUCIBILITY_BUNDLE", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "DISTINCT_CODE_DATA_PROVENANCE_RECORD" } ], "public_canonical": "https://canlicapital.com/publication/crypto-vrp/v0.1.0/paper", "registry_key": "crypto_vrp", "release_state": "BLOCKED_PREPARATION_ONLY", "review": { "author_audit": { "answers_completed": 0, "approved": false, "path": "artifacts/publication/author_technical_audits/crypto-vrp/author_audit.json", "sha256": "6121f690dbeb7ce03719b87cbedc7de4139cb2f236caedfe5340373c04ffd2f2" }, "external_domain_reviews_completed": 0, "external_reviewer_packet": null, "formal_peer_review_claimed": false, "fresh_context_reader": { "path": "artifacts/publication/fresh_context_reader_packets/crypto-vrp/reader_review.json", "reader_assigned": false, "review_completed": false, "sha256": "8d1392306d5f44e7a908edc082b1098a880f4dcc73b968cbf2676f9692199b7d" }, "independent_replications_completed": 0, "required_claim_levels": [ "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT", "FRESH_CONTEXT_READER_REVIEW" ], "state": "ZERO_EXTERNAL_REVIEWS" }, "source_objects": { "bundle_manifest": { "path": "publication/crypto-vrp/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "sha256": "7db6fc5e7315c3fdab39a4de81123699cce5e5d72710633d3f4b2076e5cf1d65" }, "paper_json": { "path": "publication/crypto-vrp/v0.1.0/paper.json", "sha256": "344005562f9fc841554a36f00c7e146b9b1f1479bfd8d9fdb7f39495a93fbcde" }, "paper_pdf": { "path": "publication/crypto-vrp/v0.1.0/paper.pdf", "sha256": "a5aa2f50d89c01c4d415a895b62ec956ad187842895d397e58aba289e5bc5e73" } }, "submission_claimed": false, "title": "Crypto Volatility Risk Premium: One Proxy Trial and a Published Null", "version": "0.1.0", "wave": 2 }, { "abstract": "This study tests one preregistered implementation of petroleum-inventory scarcity using EIA first-release data and liquid exchange-traded energy proxies. The signal enters on the next market open after release, normalizes inventory surprises against five years of seasonal history, and hedges trailing DBC beta. Over 2,669 immutable ledger observations, annualized Sharpe was -0.5893, skew was -1.5157, and kurtosis was 30.2245. The fuller probe measured net Sharpe -0.5892, Newey-West t-statistic -1.8450, DSR effectively zero, and maximum drawdown of 41.05%. It passed exposure and correlation checks but failed the return, robustness, product-consistency, portfolio, and capacity gates. The verdict is KILL and the family contributes zero sleeves.", "affiliation": "Canli Capital / AlphaC Algorithms", "author": "Arhan Canli", "blockers": [ "SOURCE_SPECIFIC_LICENSE_AND_REDISTRIBUTION_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING", "OWNER_RELEASE_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED", "REPOSITORY_LICENSE_SELECTION_REQUIRED", "RELEASE_DATE_MUST_BE_SET_AT_PUBLICATION", "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT_AND_MANUSCRIPT_APPROVAL_REQUIRED", "FRESH_CONTEXT_HUMAN_READER_REVIEW_REQUIRED" ], "bundle_slug": "energy-inventory", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "data_rights": { "data_manifest_license_review_complete": false, "raw_third_party_rows_released": false, "source_classes": [ "EIA_PUBLIC_DATA", "YAHOO_FINANCE_MARKET_DATA" ], "source_mapping_complete": true }, "editorial_priority": null, "keywords": [ "petroleum inventories", "commodity returns", "scarcity", "negative result", "research reproducibility" ], "peer_reviewed": false, "planned_targets": [ { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "PAPER_PREPRINT", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "CITABLE_ARCHIVAL_PAPER_RECORD" }, { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "REPRODUCIBILITY_BUNDLE", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "DISTINCT_CODE_DATA_PROVENANCE_RECORD" } ], "public_canonical": "https://canlicapital.com/publication/energy-inventory/v0.1.0/paper", "registry_key": "energy_inventory", "release_state": "BLOCKED_PREPARATION_ONLY", "review": { "author_audit": { "answers_completed": 0, "approved": false, "path": "artifacts/publication/author_technical_audits/energy-inventory/author_audit.json", "sha256": "6364c32bb1da47a443a416b73677bf848f36b2e4e4bbce9e87a43ba7c622e0a0" }, "external_domain_reviews_completed": 0, "external_reviewer_packet": null, "formal_peer_review_claimed": false, "fresh_context_reader": { "path": "artifacts/publication/fresh_context_reader_packets/energy-inventory/reader_review.json", "reader_assigned": false, "review_completed": false, "sha256": "6653f81ef7cb367c084fa3973f77e74e7f7159c5e92153761137d71e5dd6d8a5" }, "independent_replications_completed": 0, "required_claim_levels": [ "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT", "FRESH_CONTEXT_READER_REVIEW" ], "state": "ZERO_EXTERNAL_REVIEWS" }, "source_objects": { "bundle_manifest": { "path": "publication/energy-inventory/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "sha256": "e94296c5b027f8687a25eb02185dfe7a649a4fa82ec667577592ce581aa4665b" }, "paper_json": { "path": "publication/energy-inventory/v0.1.0/paper.json", "sha256": "3917979b857aca3e32ea07c9d20227a794f669fd3455decaee614f147413d09a" }, "paper_pdf": { "path": "publication/energy-inventory/v0.1.0/paper.pdf", "sha256": "70e32c1d040c1ac58b07e1ee0d04b6ae924150873d6e43100a4c1a4982391b0a" } }, "submission_claimed": false, "title": "Petroleum Inventory Scarcity: One Negative Macro-Commodity Identity", "version": "0.1.0", "wave": 2 }, { "abstract": "This record examines whether clustered open-market purchases by corporate insiders predict issuer returns after a realistic filing delay. Two immutable identities are charged because the return aggregation was corrected before publication. The preliminary implementation produced annualized Sharpe -0.9931; the corrected first measurement produced -0.2433 over 2,669 observations. A later replay on an advanced input snapshot measured Sharpe -0.2315 over 2,674 observations, Newey-West t-statistic -0.7490, DSR 1.83e-7, and maximum drawdown 24.84%. The strategy had low correlation with the existing book but reduced observed book Sharpe at a 10% weight. Six of twelve preregistered research checks passed. 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The implemented portfolio seeks a long-low-beta, short-high-beta spread under rank allocation. The shorter configuration reports annualized Sharpe -0.5995 over 728 observations. A deep-history configuration reports -0.0679 over 5,384 observations, with skew 8.2898 and kurtosis 311.7071. Neither estimate supports a defensive sleeve. The extreme higher moments in the longer summary also make a curve-level audit mandatory; they are not treated as evidence of an attractive positive tail. Exact curves, maximum drawdown, current-union DSR, capacity, and forward execution are not established. The family contributes zero sleeves.", "affiliation": "Canli Capital / AlphaC Algorithms", "author": "Arhan Canli", "blockers": [ "SOURCE_SPECIFIC_LICENSE_AND_REDISTRIBUTION_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING", "OWNER_RELEASE_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED", "REPOSITORY_LICENSE_SELECTION_REQUIRED", "RELEASE_DATE_MUST_BE_SET_AT_PUBLICATION", "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT_AND_MANUSCRIPT_APPROVAL_REQUIRED", "FRESH_CONTEXT_HUMAN_READER_REVIEW_REQUIRED" ], "bundle_slug": "equity-low-beta", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "data_rights": { "data_manifest_license_review_complete": false, "raw_third_party_rows_released": false, "source_classes": [ "BINANCE_EXCHANGE_MARKET_DATA", "MASSIVE_POLYGON_MARKET_DATA", "NASDAQ_SHARADAR" ], "source_mapping_complete": true }, "editorial_priority": null, "keywords": [ "low beta anomaly", "defensive equities", "negative result", "trial accounting", "research reproducibility" ], "peer_reviewed": false, "planned_targets": [ { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "PAPER_PREPRINT", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "CITABLE_ARCHIVAL_PAPER_RECORD" }, { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "REPRODUCIBILITY_BUNDLE", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "DISTINCT_CODE_DATA_PROVENANCE_RECORD" } ], "public_canonical": "https://canlicapital.com/publication/equity-low-beta/v0.1.0/paper", "registry_key": "equity_low_beta", "release_state": "BLOCKED_PREPARATION_ONLY", "review": { "author_audit": { "answers_completed": 0, "approved": false, "path": "artifacts/publication/author_technical_audits/equity-low-beta/author_audit.json", "sha256": "d6f4af4c71527b170c7400b205591c752728dc52d2c8d16952cc5e9b1020eb09" }, "external_domain_reviews_completed": 0, "external_reviewer_packet": null, "formal_peer_review_claimed": false, "fresh_context_reader": { "path": "artifacts/publication/fresh_context_reader_packets/equity-low-beta/reader_review.json", "reader_assigned": false, "review_completed": false, "sha256": "ff69758b5ae9df35efb16ee49efe05745a78adff338e62da52cef041bf8327e1" }, "independent_replications_completed": 0, "required_claim_levels": [ "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT", "FRESH_CONTEXT_READER_REVIEW" ], "state": "ZERO_EXTERNAL_REVIEWS" }, "source_objects": { "bundle_manifest": { "path": "publication/equity-low-beta/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "sha256": "71317e73d7d22794d075688a9748b29c533f3c7e82bc36d8c9132fe8fa8984bb" }, "paper_json": { "path": "publication/equity-low-beta/v0.1.0/paper.json", "sha256": "15de2c7553f4128602af3cfd23b5ce07ab7b4bb72b8da171b5b2983c50f39fcf" }, "paper_pdf": { "path": "publication/equity-low-beta/v0.1.0/paper.pdf", "sha256": "9044474480c24191f19bf8d2498cf0a452e0b5602c28116567739e6881340dcf" } }, "submission_claimed": false, "title": "Equity Low Beta: Two Negative Identities and No Defensive Sleeve", "version": "0.1.0", "wave": 2 }, { "abstract": "ALPHAC preregistered one test of annual 10-K Item 1A narrative stability before opening the 2016\u20132025 return window. The locked strategy bought issuers with stable disclosures and sold issuers with changed disclosures after controlling for filing reaction, momentum, and filing-time industry. Across 2,514 observations, net Sharpe was -0.0074, DSR 0.0000114, Newey\u2013West t-stat -0.0242, and maximum drawdown -28.47%. Twelve of 20 research gates passed, but the return, DSR, stress-cost, short-leg, capacity, mean-zero book-delta, and expected-shortfall gates failed. The sealed verdict is **KILL**. No sleeve was admitted.", "affiliation": "Canli Capital / AlphaC Algorithms", "author": "Arhan Canli", "blockers": [ "SOURCE_SPECIFIC_LICENSE_AND_REDISTRIBUTION_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING", "OWNER_RELEASE_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED", "REPOSITORY_LICENSE_SELECTION_REQUIRED", "RELEASE_DATE_MUST_BE_SET_AT_PUBLICATION", "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT_AND_MANUSCRIPT_APPROVAL_REQUIRED", "FRESH_CONTEXT_HUMAN_READER_REVIEW_REQUIRED" ], "bundle_slug": "equity-narrative-change", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "data_rights": { "data_manifest_license_review_complete": false, "raw_third_party_rows_released": false, "source_classes": [ "SEC_PUBLIC_DATA_AND_FILINGS", "NASDAQ_SHARADAR", "YAHOO_FINANCE_MARKET_DATA" ], "source_mapping_complete": true }, "editorial_priority": null, "keywords": [ "risk factor disclosure", "text analysis", "preregistration", "null result", "research reproducibility" ], "peer_reviewed": false, "planned_targets": [ { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "PAPER_PREPRINT", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "CITABLE_ARCHIVAL_PAPER_RECORD" }, { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "REPRODUCIBILITY_BUNDLE", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "DISTINCT_CODE_DATA_PROVENANCE_RECORD" } ], "public_canonical": "https://canlicapital.com/publication/equity-narrative-change/v0.1.0/paper", "registry_key": "equity_narrative_change", "release_state": "BLOCKED_PREPARATION_ONLY", "review": { "author_audit": { "answers_completed": 0, "approved": false, "path": "artifacts/publication/author_technical_audits/equity-narrative-change/author_audit.json", "sha256": "4209b12a74cfa13ae642c57ad8aae2c2c757fc339a4b46156aea0df394d9c388" }, "external_domain_reviews_completed": 0, "external_reviewer_packet": null, "formal_peer_review_claimed": false, "fresh_context_reader": { "path": "artifacts/publication/fresh_context_reader_packets/equity-narrative-change/reader_review.json", "reader_assigned": false, "review_completed": false, "sha256": "1b72349a3c9ace4d85813d28c8070691ffb21f2f91681be9ebc1520228c06216" }, "independent_replications_completed": 0, "required_claim_levels": [ "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT", "FRESH_CONTEXT_READER_REVIEW" ], "state": "ZERO_EXTERNAL_REVIEWS" }, "source_objects": { "bundle_manifest": { "path": "publication/equity-narrative-change/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "sha256": "8bf4246842e65e2477c170086c7b9ef89f8b4a91c2404293029553b92d7e4d68" }, "paper_json": { "path": "publication/equity-narrative-change/v0.1.0/paper.json", "sha256": "f9f1b8a144afcce41577f5c48d30b95dbfc4c1d0badde6224d6bdc6a02b6434e" }, "paper_pdf": { "path": "publication/equity-narrative-change/v0.1.0/paper.pdf", "sha256": "66e24f148b7b560328fc4495092d5ce81cbcc25a6fc0199ad1abb7521a2e2099" } }, "submission_claimed": false, "title": "Annual Risk-Factor Narrative Stability: A Preregistered Null", "version": "0.1.0", "wave": 2 }, { "abstract": "ALPHAC recorded 11 distinct equity-quality return identities spanning gross profitability, operating margin, return on equity, a quality composite, and a growth/profitability/earnings quality composite. Immutable annualized Sharpe measurements range from -0.8316 to +0.7643. Nine of 11 are negative. The two positives are both operating-margin variants over the shortest 2022\u20132026 history; the same signal over 2000\u20132026 is -0.4174. No family-wide persisted curves, drawdowns, DSR values, capacity sweep, or broker-reconciled forward record survive for these identities. The correct status is research-only, not a validated sleeve.", "affiliation": "Canli Capital / AlphaC Algorithms", "author": "Arhan Canli", "blockers": [ "SOURCE_SPECIFIC_LICENSE_AND_REDISTRIBUTION_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING", "OWNER_RELEASE_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED", "REPOSITORY_LICENSE_SELECTION_REQUIRED", "RELEASE_DATE_MUST_BE_SET_AT_PUBLICATION", "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT_AND_MANUSCRIPT_APPROVAL_REQUIRED", "FRESH_CONTEXT_HUMAN_READER_REVIEW_REQUIRED" ], "bundle_slug": "equity-quality", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "data_rights": { "data_manifest_license_review_complete": false, "raw_third_party_rows_released": false, "source_classes": [ "BINANCE_EXCHANGE_MARKET_DATA", "MASSIVE_POLYGON_MARKET_DATA", "NASDAQ_SHARADAR" ], "source_mapping_complete": true }, "editorial_priority": null, "keywords": [ "equity quality", "fundamental factors", "multiple testing", "negative result", "research reproducibility" ], "peer_reviewed": false, "planned_targets": [ { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "PAPER_PREPRINT", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "CITABLE_ARCHIVAL_PAPER_RECORD" }, { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "REPRODUCIBILITY_BUNDLE", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "DISTINCT_CODE_DATA_PROVENANCE_RECORD" } ], "public_canonical": "https://canlicapital.com/publication/equity-quality/v0.1.0/paper", "registry_key": "equity_quality", "release_state": "BLOCKED_PREPARATION_ONLY", "review": { "author_audit": { "answers_completed": 0, "approved": false, "path": "artifacts/publication/author_technical_audits/equity-quality/author_audit.json", "sha256": "db014614b0563f9d1903622ccbb022788765f958224b1c33add9f5584a278eab" }, "external_domain_reviews_completed": 0, "external_reviewer_packet": null, "formal_peer_review_claimed": false, "fresh_context_reader": { "path": "artifacts/publication/fresh_context_reader_packets/equity-quality/reader_review.json", "reader_assigned": false, "review_completed": false, "sha256": "f240bbc9c7125360a1192f9c5a87d69218dd9ff182e99d0a08dc3946d1bc5129" }, "independent_replications_completed": 0, "required_claim_levels": [ "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT", "FRESH_CONTEXT_READER_REVIEW" ], "state": "ZERO_EXTERNAL_REVIEWS" }, "source_objects": { "bundle_manifest": { "path": "publication/equity-quality/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "sha256": "3c63740bdaa60867fe0b63523a02493e9ed69c47d4dbcc7f420df1b1f60e6712" }, "paper_json": { "path": "publication/equity-quality/v0.1.0/paper.json", "sha256": "03a170826f0bdb300309de71bd2d8b3e1cde38f33f77ad73f09740ec86f7351d" }, "paper_pdf": { "path": "publication/equity-quality/v0.1.0/paper.pdf", "sha256": "e0a33cf2cb3ca6869e57927f50dffc247aaf5dbb0bdce321567498b84aba1900" } }, "submission_claimed": false, "title": "Equity Fundamental Quality: Eleven Identities and No Validated Sleeve", "version": "0.1.0", "wave": 2 }, { "abstract": "ALPHAC recorded 13 equity value/investment identities: book-to-price, earnings yield, sales-to-price, accruals, asset growth, net issuance, investment-to-revenue, a value composite, and 52-week-high context. Eleven have finite immutable Sharpe measurements ranging from -0.9676 to +0.8276; nine of those 11 are negative. Accruals and one net-issuance run are non-finite. Asset growth flips from -0.6858 over 2018\u20132021 to +0.8276 over 2000\u20132026, while both book-to-price runs are negative. This is specification and data-instability evidence, not a validated return family.", "affiliation": "Canli Capital / AlphaC Algorithms", "author": "Arhan Canli", "blockers": [ "SOURCE_SPECIFIC_LICENSE_AND_REDISTRIBUTION_REVIEW_INCOMPLETE", "CLEAN_ENVIRONMENT_REPLAY_NOT_COMPLETED", "INDEPENDENT_HUMAN_REPLICATION_MISSING", "OWNER_RELEASE_AUTHORIZATION_REQUIRED", "REPOSITORY_LICENSE_SELECTION_REQUIRED", "RELEASE_DATE_MUST_BE_SET_AT_PUBLICATION", "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT_AND_MANUSCRIPT_APPROVAL_REQUIRED", "FRESH_CONTEXT_HUMAN_READER_REVIEW_REQUIRED" ], "bundle_slug": "equity-value-investment", "capital_kind": "RESEARCH_SIMULATION_ONLY", "data_rights": { "data_manifest_license_review_complete": false, "raw_third_party_rows_released": false, "source_classes": [ "BINANCE_EXCHANGE_MARKET_DATA", "MASSIVE_POLYGON_MARKET_DATA", "NASDAQ_SHARADAR" ], "source_mapping_complete": true }, "editorial_priority": null, "keywords": [ "equity value", "corporate issuance", "investment factors", "multiple testing", "research reproducibility" ], "peer_reviewed": false, "planned_targets": [ { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "PAPER_PREPRINT", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "CITABLE_ARCHIVAL_PAPER_RECORD" }, { "doi_expected_only_after_publish": true, "object": "REPRODUCIBILITY_BUNDLE", "platform": "ZENODO", "purpose": "DISTINCT_CODE_DATA_PROVENANCE_RECORD" } ], "public_canonical": "https://canlicapital.com/publication/equity-value-investment/v0.1.0/paper", "registry_key": "equity_value_investment", "release_state": "BLOCKED_PREPARATION_ONLY", "review": { "author_audit": { "answers_completed": 0, "approved": false, "path": "artifacts/publication/author_technical_audits/equity-value-investment/author_audit.json", "sha256": "6e1b3a68ecc7e65c71a91cd286eb77a1f52cc73b118ceeb542ab6ae974566b46" }, "external_domain_reviews_completed": 0, "external_reviewer_packet": null, "formal_peer_review_claimed": false, "fresh_context_reader": { "path": "artifacts/publication/fresh_context_reader_packets/equity-value-investment/reader_review.json", "reader_assigned": false, "review_completed": false, "sha256": "cd85e672f3c2543268de31a5d33ee61bc9579802d8ac8230618f530c22ad6ceb" }, "independent_replications_completed": 0, "required_claim_levels": [ "AUTHOR_TECHNICAL_AUDIT", "FRESH_CONTEXT_READER_REVIEW" ], "state": "ZERO_EXTERNAL_REVIEWS" }, "source_objects": { "bundle_manifest": { "path": "publication/equity-value-investment/v0.1.0/bundle_manifest.json", "sha256": "c572f7a0b95deb1ed0573b31f330d52f96f55e92b05dc6116c8e15ba02fd3dc0" }, "paper_json": { "path": "publication/equity-value-investment/v0.1.0/paper.json", "sha256": "d2858b2f8b6cd1565eb67dfeed3c2ad8e662dcf34592ca632e932eeee172a78d" }, "paper_pdf": { "path": "publication/equity-value-investment/v0.1.0/paper.pdf", "sha256": "d9823935e464299588b9927869b10dad9cd7a211101986a2fa2b2fcea6eeaacf" } }, "submission_claimed": false, "title": "Equity Value, Issuance, and Investment: Thirteen Identities and Unstable Evidence", "version": "0.1.0", "wave": 2 }, { "abstract": "ALPHAC evaluates seven immutable identities spanning an economic-trend engine, CPI-surprise sizing, and point-in-time macro-vintage variants. Persisted historical summaries range from -0.2981 to +0.3403, but the +0.3403 value is withdrawn because its active-day calendar omitted zero-exposure sessions. The calendar-corrected result is +0.2298 with Newey-West t 1.267 and a `KILLED` verdict. The withdrawn row remains in the lineage as a superseded measurement. The economic premise is that slowly updating growth and inflation information may forecast liquid cross-asset returns. Revised releases create a direct look-ahead hazard, so only vintages available at each decision are admissible. The seven identities share macro information and constitute one research family, not seven independent sleeves; they may also overlap managed-futures trend. Current evidence is summary-level rather than a complete curve, DSR, capacity, drawdown, and crisis correlation packet. The decision is therefore **zero validated sleeves**. 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Exact deltas are published.", "exact_counts_required": true, "metric_absolute_tolerance": 5e-05, "prospectively_preregistered": false }, "author": "Arhan Canli", "benchmark_curve_redistribution_review_complete": false, "claim_boundary": "An author-run temporary workspace freshly acquired the public macro and market inputs, regenerated AlphaVintage, and replayed all four locked decision gates. The three pre-existing benchmark strategy curves were hash-bound inputs copied from the author repository; their upstream strategies were not regenerated from raw inputs and their redistribution review is incomplete. This is therefore a full AlphaVintage decision replay, not a full multi-sleeve end-to-end reproduction, portable public bundle, or independent replication.", "content_hash": "sha256:5fd834e91c921b10aedec8562d4d20bf092407c81f895c3c6d2c520a62a6a6dd", "exact_decision_checks": { "active_days": true, "all_four_gate_values": true, "four_gate_replay_declared": true, "portfolio_days": true, "upstream_benchmark_regeneration_not_overstated": true, "verdict": true }, "executed_at": "2026-08-24T03:22:31.996665+00:00", "execution": { "author_run_not_independent": true, "dependency_environment": "PEP723_UV_ISOLATED_SCRIPTS", "fresh_market_acquisition": true, "fresh_official_macro_acquisition": true, "records": [ { "command": "uv run --isolated --script scripts/fetch_rtdsm_cpi_portable.py --output inputs/macro --vintage-cutoff 2026-07-15", "exit_code": 0, "stderr_sha256": "f6a10766bda37c1a677bf5443e699b8d467f9540ac205f3e310c77cba1d9aecc", "stdout_sha256": "b70b26050823efe02c21dc450a7c5b8b50b12d56852e895a89dff3aa78ed0ade" }, { "command": "uv run --isolated --script scripts/fetch_yahoo_iwm_spy_portable.py --output inputs/market --start 2001-06-27 --end-exclusive 2026-08-22", "exit_code": 0, "stderr_sha256": "4da2349642c58d1d06963b1ea4066e37d0b62aafe092b384f2db7b1bb46d3a14", "stdout_sha256": "c0614b1d8715ef66bec6697cb51dc65d9dcdf7e94ef6cc99e77cc436badb26af" }, { "command": "uv run --isolated --script scripts/reproduce_alphavintage_full_decision_portable.py --macro-dir inputs/macro --market-dir inputs/market --book-curve eq=inputs/book/eq.equity.parquet --book-curve mf=inputs/book/mf.equity.parquet --book-curve inv=inputs/book/inv.equity.parquet --output outputs/full_decision.json", "exit_code": 0, "stderr_sha256": "9c898f7fcd29986474e6b0d2655787ee778d0cf95c8b042afba455d2d89354c8", "stdout_sha256": "c3afe037cc5baadd5d044e926a6e02c8f278636db3ebca8c9dba54063ad7eb61" } ], "workspace_destroyed_after_execution": true, "workspace_file_inventory": { "inputs/book/eq.equity.parquet": "76f82c8df3726f049144d7699c0f13069db6a1e0d1f1e4570babd8d82a85cfc9", "inputs/book/inv.equity.parquet": "e81f22c716da8590ee0a7129760ffa65f56b6967f8ef8c3c2ed86845cdf1645b", "inputs/book/mf.equity.parquet": "e3ccf8948e3dd1626d1d7c089d4a301817cc4c7e9b55b87870b305e663669041", "inputs/macro/PCPIX_vintage_long.parquet": "e764f0b4f68cbc77c2586d4ff9a298ec3ed7a80a5d93bab6216c6461cb6800ca", "inputs/macro/PCPI_vintage_long.parquet": "387b8155f73d15a1a6b9ad8a4d3b9315ec03f1c8881f2fae0efe5ddc1290e0a4", "inputs/macro/pcpiMvMd.xlsx": "11851cd13c73b743bc3be30564fc18283cedd11211a070a3a82ce6b64b6cca10", "inputs/macro/pcpixMvMd.xlsx": "dcdab3493a10a880312164f8da7e1ac98c44b5c76080e9314c89dc74c9dd3e38", "inputs/macro/source_manifest.json": "b70b26050823efe02c21dc450a7c5b8b50b12d56852e895a89dff3aa78ed0ade", "inputs/market/IWM.adjusted_close.parquet": "bda6d8a253da410610207fa1f4d567e0b64621abc503dd69fe7a9caee67d1cc4", "inputs/market/IWM.chart.json": "82420e9408716dabe4351b5d6bdc46afe4092f71a06013122167284dd2b9320d", "inputs/market/QQQ.adjusted_close.parquet": "87615c7b044e88173f5b3facd5b00f5160e9bac046e6c72e04ca5081aba62c56", "inputs/market/QQQ.chart.json": "1ac68deafd75bdcdd9877527016a65895550e7aaa721beb564a1317e7989e08b", "inputs/market/SPY.adjusted_close.parquet": "17d215a66261db47f1ed236c6e8ec3f6f3d5b4029b10ad9982d75447a3bf2e90", "inputs/market/SPY.chart.json": "6b027038ecab74e680d9308155f0322e767612973e74878c39d78d2a6fc9fed6", "inputs/market/source_manifest.json": "c0614b1d8715ef66bec6697cb51dc65d9dcdf7e94ef6cc99e77cc436badb26af", "outputs/full_decision.json": "c3afe037cc5baadd5d044e926a6e02c8f278636db3ebca8c9dba54063ad7eb61", "scripts/fetch_rtdsm_cpi_portable.py": "c83c3658ce4babdc80046fd44caa6378e462e395acf80ba0fe70de74fa13412a", "scripts/fetch_yahoo_iwm_spy_portable.py": "bd0ee4ca7fa9a1737d9c27b1759ca6538c1bfebe2702f267986a3dc945862f31", "scripts/reproduce_alphavintage_full_decision_portable.py": "ff61ed0fce62b15f075246990fd57fa66df7c3a2622292a52df3e037230dbcf1" }, "workspace_outside_repository": true }, "fresh_result": { "active_day_net_sharpe_superseded": 0.33820761713637004, "active_days": 5998, "all_four_preregistered_decision_gates_replayed": true, "candidate_return_content_hash": "sha256:aa8b5236a1826f9b2dcbae7c432f7247dcbd3733f9863f69deb2dc909aca144a", "checks": { "a_clears_bar": true, "b_nw_t_ge_1p5": false, "c_benefit_is_the_mean": true, "d_placebo_dead": true }, "claim_boundary": "This standalone implementation regenerates AlphaVintage from freshly acquired CPI and ETF inputs and replays all four locked decision gates against three explicitly bound benchmark equity curves. It does not regenerate those upstream benchmark strategies from their raw inputs, grant redistribution rights, or constitute an independent human reproduction.", "content_hash": "sha256:1ba1e1b4c2c6786288f742fbc3afb8ee3dfe2c126fa7acc0924420a864647529", "diversification": { "allocation_results": [ { "allocation": 0.05, "book_sharpe": 0.7734887908775533, "book_sharpe_delta": 0.018800870234059963, "mean_fraction_pct": 91.93526845361609, "zeroed_delta": 0.0015162397127609362 }, { "allocation": 0.1, "book_sharpe": 0.7873996657271963, "book_sharpe_delta": 0.032711745083703, "mean_fraction_pct": 110.80444148233677, "zeroed_delta": -0.003534321355419867 }, { "allocation": 0.15, "book_sharpe": 0.7941791622037726, "book_sharpe_delta": 0.03949124156027928, "mean_fraction_pct": 143.1511259407847, "zeroed_delta": -0.017040915381255628 }, { "allocation": 0.2, "book_sharpe": 0.7916605033002259, "book_sharpe_delta": 0.03697258265673253, "mean_fraction_pct": 209.705704570966, "zeroed_delta": 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+ structlog==26.1.0\n + tenacity==9.1.4\n + threadpoolctl==3.6.0\n + toolz==1.1.0\n + typer==0.26.7\n + types-awscrt==0.34.1\n + types-pyyaml==6.0.12.20260518\n + types-s3transfer==0.16.0\n + typing-extensions==4.15.0\n + typing-inspection==0.4.2\n + tzdata==2026.2\n + urllib3==2.7.0\n + xlrd==2.0.2\n + yarl==1.24.2\n + zstandard==0.25.0\n", "stdout_sha256": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "stdout_tail": "" }, { "command": ".venv/bin/python3 scripts/mf_gauntlet.py --alphas mf_trend_63,mf_trend_126,mf_trend_252 --rebalance 10 --cash 100000 --start 2003-01-01 --end 2026-08-24 --out outputs/mf_live_fwd", "exit_code": 0, "stderr_sha256": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "stderr_tail": "", "stdout_sha256": "7ca73119f7645c9df2036d0c4a1eb853da983603a45db85ed91b55327e630d39", "stdout_tail": "\n================ MANAGED-FUTURES TREND \u2014 GAUNTLET ================\n window : 2003-01-01 .. 2026-08-24 (monthly rebalance, 2y train / 6m test)\n net Sharpe : 0.327\n DSR : 0.8103064357871095\n ann vol : 0.053\n max DD : 0.102\n sortino : 0.469\n skew : 0.26 (trend should be >~0 \u2014 the crash-protection signature)\n corr to SPY : +0.08 (want ~0 / negative \u2014 diversifies the book)\n CAGR : 0.011\n artifacts : outputs/mf_live_fwd\n=================================================================\n" } ], "replay_output_inventory": { "equity.parquet": { "bytes": 91159, "sha256": "e3ccf8948e3dd1626d1d7c089d4a301817cc4c7e9b55b87870b305e663669041" }, "legs/leg_00/corporate_actions.parquet": { "bytes": 3721, "sha256": "b326c7ab4cf09da69ae53d627cc50492dd08da897b3ac403c9ce59eeaec9ab16" }, "legs/leg_00/equity.parquet": { "bytes": 3737, "sha256": "1059437e4f0dd2281aebe538520a12872fc4b6e30134d220acccde02a7462a2b" }, "legs/leg_00/fills.parquet": { "bytes": 10785, "sha256": "a99ed231709a1f23f8725d1828d1bbfb6923ed53826a6764510b488fd9bef254" }, "legs/leg_00/financing.parquet": { "bytes": 6479, "sha256": 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The pinned commit regenerates every strategy output byte except the DSR-bearing walkforward.json context.", "strategy_source_reconstruction_sufficient_for_exact_curve": true }, "workspace_destroyed_after_execution": true, "workspace_outside_repository": true }, "fresh_vendor_reacquisition_completed": false, "full_historical_source_tree_recovered": false, "historical_dsr_selection_context_reproduced": false, "historical_full_artifact_byte_exact": false, "passes_strategy_reproduction": true, "rights_and_release": { "fresh_reacquisition_is_not_claimed_by_this_manifest": true, "hash_manifest_may_be_published": true, "market_source": "Yahoo Finance chart endpoint; adjusted daily ETF bars", "private_snapshot_may_be_published": false, "public_bundle_must_withhold_private_snapshot_and_reference_rows": true, "raw_or_normalized_rows_publication_authorized": false }, "schema": "canli.alphac-alphatrend-upstream-clean-workspace-receipt.v1", "source_bindings": { "manifest": { "content_hash": "sha256:cfb84152dbea31f4aac60c393ee7c857fc39e0b3165483b787e86899e879c934", "path": "artifacts/publication/alphatrend_upstream_replay_manifest.json", "sha256": "cfc0a8c21906d220436289801f288048a163b4fb26eadf38ec6b60f1d8312b0b" }, "reference_equity_sha256": "e3ccf8948e3dd1626d1d7c089d4a301817cc4c7e9b55b87870b305e663669041", "source_commit": "577555f12636e4df81e42a3940184678d0cceb7e" }, "status": "PASS_UPSTREAM_STRATEGY_CURVE_BYTE_EXACT_DSR_CONTEXT_NOT_REPRODUCED" }, "internal_audit_replay": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This proves that 13 audit-only commands completed in the current repository environment, all 33 unique released result objects remained byte-identical, and no experiment ledger changed. It is not a clean-environment replay, does not prove raw data portability, does not execute the deferred AlphaMax return-level probes, opens no new hypothesis, and is not independent replication.", "command_receipts": [ { "command": "uv run python scripts/audit_alphatrend_family.py", "execution_command": "uv run python scripts/audit_alphatrend_family.py", "returncode": 0, "stderr_sha256": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "stdout_sha256": "5cd6b2726e3e4c3145294323c33b42b21da7a8885296865fd7146eff0d5c2e0f" }, { "command": "uv run python scripts/audit_crypto_carry_2022_tail.py", "execution_command": "uv run python scripts/audit_crypto_carry_2022_tail.py", "returncode": 0, "stderr_sha256": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "stdout_sha256": "59b3a9685e3c75db613097976dd9bd75ba56e708b78e0cbacecfa3bb5a0af052" }, { "command": "uv run python scripts/audit_crypto_carry_first_rebalance_drift.py", "execution_command": "uv run 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scripts/audit_crypto_multifactor_family.py", "execution_command": "uv run python scripts/audit_crypto_multifactor_family.py", "returncode": 0, "stderr_sha256": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "stdout_sha256": "71d4e6b602defe752907117b3361d86dd5c828e4aa8ec267f71800795bad2f4d" }, { "command": "uv run python scripts/audit_crypto_vrp_family.py", "execution_command": "uv run python scripts/audit_crypto_vrp_family.py", "returncode": 0, "stderr_sha256": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "stdout_sha256": "9b7b9f28dfc674d2b992f3e4864695f17c1375206b1d2e0882c9e74e61766e75" }, { "command": "uv run python scripts/audit_equity_fundamental_families.py", "execution_command": "uv run python scripts/audit_equity_fundamental_families.py", "returncode": 0, "stderr_sha256": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "stdout_sha256": "6e82bc67cb0522aa380ee63b2fac51061fb57aaec97104ac95c78eee2541b191" }, { "command": "uv run python scripts/audit_equity_narrative_family.py", "execution_command": "uv run python scripts/audit_equity_narrative_family.py", "returncode": 0, "stderr_sha256": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "stdout_sha256": "dd97aa2391755a95c69a1cad73d9b30ab42eff34dedd2cd18e3aff1e9bf0723d" }, { "command": "uv run python scripts/audit_remaining_research_families.py", "execution_command": "uv run python scripts/audit_remaining_research_families.py", "returncode": 0, "stderr_sha256": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "stdout_sha256": "fb5b210a22c0d89c047ca7f0c8b783e67d78f3a07c4efc75b029a288e0e205f3" }, { "command": "uv run python scripts/replay_crypto_carry_frozen_inputs.py --seal-existing", "execution_command": "uv run python scripts/replay_crypto_carry_frozen_inputs.py --seal-existing", "returncode": 0, "stderr_sha256": "e3b0c44298fc1c149afbf4c8996fb92427ae41e4649b934ca495991b7852b855", "stdout_sha256": 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It is not a portable clean-workspace replay, does not prove raw data portability, does not execute the deferred AlphaMax return-level probes, opens no new hypothesis, and is not independent replication.", "command_receipts": [ { "command": "uv run python scripts/audit_alphatrend_family.py", "execution_command": "uv run --isolated --frozen python scripts/audit_alphatrend_family.py", "returncode": 0, "stderr_sha256": "0cd69ba3d5ba26f74485d4a3ebe56ed49ce1f18e9e1b28e26147844a52f5ca6c", "stdout_sha256": "5cd6b2726e3e4c3145294323c33b42b21da7a8885296865fd7146eff0d5c2e0f" }, { "command": "uv run python scripts/audit_crypto_carry_2022_tail.py", "execution_command": "uv run --isolated --frozen python scripts/audit_crypto_carry_2022_tail.py", "returncode": 0, "stderr_sha256": "6d4330e8f13a6ee02745b8174e5a3636674c9fbda5b03e8a646e99e8dff563ab", "stdout_sha256": "59b3a9685e3c75db613097976dd9bd75ba56e708b78e0cbacecfa3bb5a0af052" }, { "command": "uv run python 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"archival_pdf_visual_inspection": { "author_and_project_lead": "Arhan Canli", "checks": { "author_attribution": "PASS", "blank_or_near_blank_pages": "PASS", "body_text_clipping_or_overlap": "PASS", "claim_boundary_and_not_peer_reviewed_disclosure": "PASS", "consistent_a4_visual_system": "PASS", "cover_title_and_metadata_overflow": "PASS", "last_page_truncation": "PASS", "tables_and_code_blocks": "PASS" }, "claim_boundary": "This is internal presentation QA, not peer review, editorial acceptance, content validation, accessibility certification, independent replication, or proof that any strategy result is economically valid.", "content_hash": "sha256:6c0da840ce605997d2ed54d51d120180708bfe54a194ae0b6470f63225b508bb", "inspection_date": "2026-08-25", "method": "The revised eight-page AlphaVintage PDF was rasterized with Apple PDFKit and every page was examined in order after its source-evidence correction. The other 15 PDFs are carried forward only because their PDF bytes and page counts exactly match the prior receipt. Every current PDF independently passes machine validation.", "pages_carried_forward_unchanged": 72, "pages_inspected": 80, "pages_reinspected_in_this_revision": 8, "papers": [ { "bundle": "publication/crypto-carry/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 10, "pdf_sha256": "93c315aebf3262ae195f7475ce668ceed47290c62549ba707cf8544ab795e421", "pdf_validation_sha256": "48a603b78f9568b18c245f9a0c28286edb1277995e0eaa8e77ca8f89e08f77a8", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "f41be57dbcbd04f0e72568ccde561cfd4fe6ed06ba29e0c3e1c4d2cafc034c7f", "registry_key": "alphaforge_crypto_carry", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/alphamax/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 8, "pdf_sha256": "eed32d00c9ed1b3bab146f8a220bd46279f9f56b5db88cd7b22e7b0c81eeaa05", "pdf_validation_sha256": "055ae6bbdc897cffeeca9f39d5b539e52179d01afade2f5f3a620c693fa483f7", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "635ed23af6518e2c27782e61dde095e60b8b377dbba3471aa6bff1abcbb28e88", "registry_key": "alphamax_equity_momentum", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/alphatrend/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 6, "pdf_sha256": "029428552d4fed9e9ea2c79f655c9f239d3546c390f695c42176f4d53fe8ceac", "pdf_validation_sha256": "08ff14b9fca6052f7402a572edd0a084d20bcca788bcdde6259af0f3bcbe57a2", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "3e2565edb17422a60bd96c40969f0520866c79e2bc880405852c90cfc3907090", "registry_key": "alphatrend_managed_futures", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/alphavintage/v1.0.0", "inspection_basis": "REINSPECTED_CURRENT_PDF_2026_08_25", "pages_inspected": 8, "pdf_sha256": "1a008c6c32b3b8fc313515f636d986be678187ef92a44c0a9d6651585c790f47", "pdf_validation_sha256": "4badae5a9b4a1c6979217bb386c867b8c3eef165585aa5145e567f85db5f27d3", "registry_key": "alphavintage_macro_surprise", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/crypto-defensive/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 4, "pdf_sha256": "d2012cf059a5ed9e8089122575a1d65efd02d5d43fa96c8e47a492d84a0a96ce", "pdf_validation_sha256": "32bb757611472fb685951955cc186269e4fab0088c637e4fb451b5894de80aa1", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "4eece6b79e14b89af3f64f304b4c5e134d55a7f04aff77499d9087bc91e07be4", "registry_key": "crypto_defensive", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/crypto-momentum/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 7, "pdf_sha256": "170dff8bfbf47443ad39f8e9dda535a3fc1b85300b14df84682f48ce3650d0e9", "pdf_validation_sha256": "94f3d31fd6fe29628e89a30d9786483339c7148ff802856ed7c3a919d0b6f190", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "decb66153c8a00b517a3d305db489c12aacf24f6e36f6898b5b725d5dc7b6f43", "registry_key": "crypto_momentum", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/crypto-multifactor-engine/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 5, "pdf_sha256": "d472c102ac67d1259c8207ecc79b17bc0b2a6ce64c9b581c11cbb010e42391ae", "pdf_validation_sha256": "f9940101485bbbec60b7ef40b3f658f0818bf593eb4684f4a886ba57d2271b53", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "504200d5e68d5da9109f11343b3e185f8012c3ad2adc9d0d3fb1203836c72618", "registry_key": "crypto_multifactor_engine", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/crypto-reversal/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 3, "pdf_sha256": "4ce95d68b438bc529aff03eda61b6c11691cea28f927c667616f6b995af1123e", "pdf_validation_sha256": "2c70fd8786c9a683c780589e44160a6100021edda78308da1c07537225cac796", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "ec11a7d6b3cf797d5f309eec6f8723fddf38e1c9147f993afae25b9293e2e540", "registry_key": "crypto_reversal", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/crypto-vrp/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 4, "pdf_sha256": "a5aa2f50d89c01c4d415a895b62ec956ad187842895d397e58aba289e5bc5e73", "pdf_validation_sha256": "42f675d51e24d977b1784d731bb64ac16f70785e91896b998de1210ff42aca68", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "336f4b46df0a15fac13dc133f6c4418cdc8927e0fcb4a3e86a4eafb55bf13880", "registry_key": "crypto_vrp", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/energy-inventory/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 4, "pdf_sha256": "70e32c1d040c1ac58b07e1ee0d04b6ae924150873d6e43100a4c1a4982391b0a", "pdf_validation_sha256": "f2870c327377c7b2fe8a3860f0582bd96df2fbc69e362a3a375637254b2a9fca", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "d5b59ee6fdf1e1a85368d815260992a72b59f41b0241e80a18b334c00a158144", "registry_key": "energy_inventory", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/equity-insider-activity/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 4, "pdf_sha256": "f7361073dc107b7414b60e8cc50c77515dae71a8d280745582250e970aa653dc", "pdf_validation_sha256": "4e24a5de5b830ca6685a4f9f4208498e65aa29818f871f067763c9275d2df37b", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "da720d0425c37f7b7454d216bd3d80830bf1477003183e7116ef2e45f30bbe77", "registry_key": "equity_insider_activity", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/equity-low-beta/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 4, "pdf_sha256": "9044474480c24191f19bf8d2498cf0a452e0b5602c28116567739e6881340dcf", "pdf_validation_sha256": "f499707074aadca72188eea36201be2751f14123689bd683e3544828d67e7738", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "73fed760711eb544ab126f35dbd4f614c7c75bd39e70f6501fbec7bb65c7cefb", "registry_key": "equity_low_beta", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/equity-narrative-change/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 3, "pdf_sha256": "66e24f148b7b560328fc4495092d5ce81cbcc25a6fc0199ad1abb7521a2e2099", "pdf_validation_sha256": "20292dba7af7ef0ec7bc63cbc039bb17ce81e5310174d9f40d2885ebdd24e9f5", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "47744e9e396bf97d106b20538cd070a3954170fdac00fb7cc86db7500ef6f1e0", "registry_key": "equity_narrative_change", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/equity-quality/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 3, "pdf_sha256": "e0a33cf2cb3ca6869e57927f50dffc247aaf5dbb0bdce321567498b84aba1900", "pdf_validation_sha256": "b73b5eea715641d6562604775d40fd57b54f8bd13e9171f514586f9d7130991a", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "10914a9184cfc79b14e864f20663b84d4867924ae50255f31217a73b0b4a562c", "registry_key": "equity_quality", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/equity-value-investment/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 4, "pdf_sha256": "d9823935e464299588b9927869b10dad9cd7a211101986a2fa2b2fcea6eeaacf", "pdf_validation_sha256": "65ba373153b5f6a2478b9c8aa3f642a4a53eda035fcd65c01f2a01a02cc338bd", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "5814b70362a26b6d4f49a6360497f79b84b06c1d7e60df8f667c92d57a69edf9", "registry_key": "equity_value_investment", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" }, { "bundle": "publication/macro-economic-trend/v0.1.0", "inspection_basis": "CARRIED_FORWARD_BYTE_IDENTICAL_PDF_FROM_PRIOR_RECEIPT", "pages_inspected": 3, "pdf_sha256": "7ad1865d7854be839c8b607b0106f7dafd50eb820af3fd4d77fa44b242e81d04", "pdf_validation_sha256": "8c597701c7d36dca680d0254e2fe4effd852176f3ba94c68deaaf3fff5f092f5", "prior_pdf_validation_sha256": "8a6a7b307cb5295f266b76e35a2cffd14a32dbab49ea7773ad6fd864e3a7cec6", "registry_key": "macro_economic_trend", "result": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION" } ], "papers_inspected": 16, "performed_by": "OpenAI Codex-assisted internal publication QA", "prior_receipt": { "content_hash": "sha256:45ed2294628bd0bb14fb3594e8e5b084047f7384daecc7c306812ba8dee8c739", "path": "artifacts/audit/archive/archival_publication_visual_inspection_2026-08-24.json", "sha256": "fa93a65cfbc7a3d97f75170c2a87fa2c81773bc324f10b392f7e39a885446bfa" }, "schema": "canli.alphac-archival-pdf-visual-inspection.v2", "status": "PASS_INTERNAL_VISUAL_INSPECTION_NOT_INDEPENDENT_REVIEW" }, "crypto_carry_current_replay_receipt": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "claim_boundary": "This is a zero-new-trial replay against the current local state. It compares current behavior with the selected historical artifact, but it is not an exact software-only replay, a fully frozen-input replay, a fresh-data replication, or an independent replication.", "comparison": { "first_divergence": { "delta_replay_minus_source": -0.08753026649355888, "overlap_row_index": 1, "replay_equity": 100088.83227235998, "source_equity": 100088.91980262648, "ts": 1644285600000 }, "max_absolute_equity_difference": 35442.22073910621, "overlap_rows": 37776, "replay_rows": 37776, "replay_summary": { "cagr": 0.00763704456570391, "fees_paid": 6187.9259149451755, "final_equity": 103335.15565193011, "funding_net": 14668.27528924918, "max_dd": 0.20982761399491723, "sharpe": 0.10652337594597801 }, "source_rows": 37776, "source_summary": { "cagr": 0.07797864166745705, "fees_paid": 7372.717709488011, "final_equity": 138236.26519577613, "funding_net": 19500.01981558874, "max_dd": 0.19603715542855882, "sharpe": 0.6766103810860954 }, "summary_deltas_replay_minus_source": { "cagr": -0.07034159710175314, "fees_paid": -1184.7917945428353, "final_equity": -34901.10954384602, "funding_net": -4831.74452633956, "max_dd": 0.01379045856635841, "sharpe": -0.5700870051401173 }, "timestamps_equal": true }, "content_hash": "sha256:d1fb9ae03ca6b092a34e204450216f79cd5d7a96f84615c957f9b7f583c19eaf", "exact_replay": false, "experiment_ledger_lines_after": 226, "experiment_ledger_lines_before": 226, "independent_replication": false, "input_freeze_audit": { "conclusion": "The non-exact replay cannot be attributed to software drift alone. The source artifact did not bind every derived input consumed by the run.", "historical_instrument_metadata_snapshot_bound_by_source": false, "historical_universe_membership_snapshot_bound_by_source": false, "market_rows_portability_manifest_available": true, "observed_first_decision_cross_section": { "replay_order_records": 21, "source_only_instrument": "BINANCE:PERP:EOSUSDT", "source_order_records": 22 } }, "output_binding": { "equity_sha256": "c2820be452d1687a329690671891f5c38b449b95991d6e38dd57e3e3460932c2", "path": "artifacts/probe/crypto_carry_frozen_current_code_replay", "walkforward_sha256": "0bcaddbbd75e3ae818303a3e577d7c8c8654f9e51358b70edf9c040d49b5ab50" }, "replay_executed": true, "schema": "canli.alphac-crypto-carry-current-state-replay.v2", "source_binding": { "equity_sha256": "37598579af6f34892e40902e2a357e4b07993b3e572012a1da311f7e91798a2a", "path": "artifacts/walkforward/crypto_carry_wk/walkforward.json", "sha256": "a72c11172a730536336a079d26394cd926f88df06ce36cb3b5483159a99464ee" }, "status": "REPLAY_EXECUTED_MATERIAL_CODE_OR_MUTABLE_INPUT_DRIFT_QUANTIFIED", "strategy_claim_changed": false, "zero_new_trials": true }, "crypto_carry_first_rebalance_attribution": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "causal_method": { "allocator": "RankEqualVolFallback", "observed_long_tail": [ "BINANCE:PERP:DOTUSDT", "BINANCE:PERP:FTMUSDT", "BINANCE:PERP:LRCUSDT", "BINANCE:PERP:MANAUSDT", "BINANCE:PERP:SANDUSDT" ], "observed_short_tail": [ "BINANCE:PERP:1000SHIBUSDT", "BINANCE:PERP:GALAUSDT", "BINANCE:PERP:LINKUSDT", "BINANCE:PERP:LUNAUSDT", "BINANCE:PERP:NEARUSDT" ], "synthetic_mu": "observed longs=+2, observed shorts=-2, unselected middle=0", "why_exact": "The allocator uses only stable rank order; k=5 in both N=21 and N=22. All other sizing inputs are read through the production covariance, overlay, instrument-grid, and lot-rounding functions." }, "conclusion": "The first-rebalance quantity drift is exactly caused by the mutable derived universe snapshot: restoring EOS to the otherwise current 21-name cross-section reproduces every historical order quantity. Later path drift remains a separate causal question, including the corrected realized-vol overlay.", "content_hash": "sha256:6c5dd9216be1d511b4d1e05f38fc511f048d27fad37df37ff7779cb01b126da1", "cross_section_difference": { "current_eos_intervals": [ { "effective_from": 1580515200000, "effective_to": 1643673600000, "rank": 4, "reason": "exit_rank_29" }, { "effective_from": 1664582400000, "effective_to": 1669852800000, "rank": 6, "reason": "exit_rank_32" } ], "eos_is_member_in_current_derived_universe": false, "replay_only": [], "replay_size": 21, "source_only": [ "BINANCE:PERP:EOSUSDT" ], "source_size": 22 }, "decision_ts": 1644282000000, "new_trials": 0, "reconstruction": { "current_21_name_cross_section": { "cross_section_size": 21, "discretized_quantities": { "BINANCE:PERP:1000SHIBUSDT": 191729.0, "BINANCE:PERP:DOTUSDT": 349.90000000000003, "BINANCE:PERP:FTMUSDT": 2440.0, "BINANCE:PERP:GALAUSDT": 15550.0, "BINANCE:PERP:LINKUSDT": 370.73, "BINANCE:PERP:LRCUSDT": 4970.0, "BINANCE:PERP:LUNAUSDT": 104.05707742, "BINANCE:PERP:MANAUSDT": 2143.0, "BINANCE:PERP:NEARUSDT": 424.0, "BINANCE:PERP:SANDUSDT": 1479.0 }, "ex_ante_vol_ann": 0.11816510266917875, "jointly_complete_size": 21, "overlay_scale": 1.26941031329654, "pre_overlay_gross": 0.5000000000000001, "selected_weights": { "BINANCE:PERP:1000SHIBUSDT": -0.06370983401765808, "BINANCE:PERP:DOTUSDT": 0.07796319747163627, "BINANCE:PERP:FTMUSDT": 0.0557280817960139, "BINANCE:PERP:GALAUSDT": -0.05508018797807301, "BINANCE:PERP:LINKUSDT": -0.06957213535560054, "BINANCE:PERP:LRCUSDT": 0.05635121756297829, "BINANCE:PERP:LUNAUSDT": -0.06117099353760659, "BINANCE:PERP:MANAUSDT": 0.06963703086526742, "BINANCE:PERP:NEARUSDT": -0.05693975961596875, "BINANCE:PERP:SANDUSDT": 0.0685527184474673 }, "shrinkage_intensity": 0.31949451702792064, "target_gross": 0.6347051566482702 }, "observed_replay_quantities": { "BINANCE:PERP:1000SHIBUSDT": 191729.0, "BINANCE:PERP:DOTUSDT": 349.90000000000003, "BINANCE:PERP:FTMUSDT": 2440.0, "BINANCE:PERP:GALAUSDT": 15550.0, "BINANCE:PERP:LINKUSDT": 370.73, "BINANCE:PERP:LRCUSDT": 4970.0, "BINANCE:PERP:LUNAUSDT": 104.05707742, "BINANCE:PERP:MANAUSDT": 2143.0, "BINANCE:PERP:NEARUSDT": 424.0, "BINANCE:PERP:SANDUSDT": 1479.0 }, "observed_source_quantities": { "BINANCE:PERP:1000SHIBUSDT": 192328.0, "BINANCE:PERP:DOTUSDT": 351.0, "BINANCE:PERP:FTMUSDT": 2448.0, "BINANCE:PERP:GALAUSDT": 15598.0, "BINANCE:PERP:LINKUSDT": 371.89, "BINANCE:PERP:LRCUSDT": 4985.0, "BINANCE:PERP:LUNAUSDT": 104.38212949, "BINANCE:PERP:MANAUSDT": 2150.0, "BINANCE:PERP:NEARUSDT": 426.0, "BINANCE:PERP:SANDUSDT": 1483.0 }, "replay_quantities_exact": true, "source_22_name_cross_section_with_eos": { "cross_section_size": 22, "discretized_quantities": { "BINANCE:PERP:1000SHIBUSDT": 192328.0, "BINANCE:PERP:DOTUSDT": 351.0, "BINANCE:PERP:FTMUSDT": 2448.0, "BINANCE:PERP:GALAUSDT": 15598.0, "BINANCE:PERP:LINKUSDT": 371.89, "BINANCE:PERP:LRCUSDT": 4985.0, "BINANCE:PERP:LUNAUSDT": 104.38212949, "BINANCE:PERP:MANAUSDT": 2150.0, "BINANCE:PERP:NEARUSDT": 426.0, "BINANCE:PERP:SANDUSDT": 1483.0 }, "ex_ante_vol_ann": 0.11779712961391002, "jointly_complete_size": 22, "overlay_scale": 1.2733756797948947, "pre_overlay_gross": 0.49999999999999994, "selected_weights": { "BINANCE:PERP:1000SHIBUSDT": -0.06390884992195883, "BINANCE:PERP:DOTUSDT": 0.07820673783689117, "BINANCE:PERP:FTMUSDT": 0.055902164412372696, "BINANCE:PERP:GALAUSDT": -0.05525224671262363, "BINANCE:PERP:LINKUSDT": -0.06978946383628824, "BINANCE:PERP:LRCUSDT": 0.05652724672228566, "BINANCE:PERP:LUNAUSDT": -0.0613620786468926, "BINANCE:PERP:MANAUSDT": 0.06985456206565675, "BINANCE:PERP:NEARUSDT": -0.05711762725485625, "BINANCE:PERP:SANDUSDT": 0.06876686248762147 }, "shrinkage_intensity": 0.30357601748859636, "target_gross": 0.6366878398974473 }, "source_quantities_exact": true }, "replay_orders_binding": { "path": "artifacts/probe/crypto_carry_frozen_current_code_replay/legs/leg_00/orders.parquet", "sha256": "f3dc673e300e62d5c4c36448eee02a657faaf32458d63bf0f9001a351c9303df" }, "schema": "canli.alphac-crypto-carry-first-rebalance-drift-audit.v1", "scope": "first decision only; this does not attribute the full multi-year replay drift", "source_orders_binding": { "path": "artifacts/walkforward/crypto_carry_wk/legs/leg_00/orders.parquet", "sha256": "b523bb61e579a05337c3b6ec35d1cfc9af06ef310d16c05aa0036a37c321a635" }, "status": "PASS_FIRST_REBALANCE_CAUSE_EXACTLY_REPRODUCED" }, "crypto_carry_full_path_attribution": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "bindings": { "current_state_replay": { "bytes": 19211093, "directory": "artifacts/probe/crypto_carry_frozen_current_code_replay", "equity_sha256": "c2820be452d1687a329690671891f5c38b449b95991d6e38dd57e3e3460932c2", "files": 177, "legs": 25, "required_ledgers_per_leg": [ "equity.parquet", "fills.parquet", "funding.parquet", "orders.parquet", "positions.parquet" ], "root_sha256": "53aef4da6ed09f20b18834dd5f77701f19e402362f9cc40e95b12a7efd8bf6e1", "walkforward_sha256": "0bcaddbbd75e3ae818303a3e577d7c8c8654f9e51358b70edf9c040d49b5ab50" }, "first_decision_attribution": { "content_hash": "sha256:6c5dd9216be1d511b4d1e05f38fc511f048d27fad37df37ff7779cb01b126da1", "path": "artifacts/probe/crypto_carry_replay_drift/first_rebalance_attribution.json", "sha256": "3beefed135322c4617ca5e547eea20423a90b2fb07e02b60a53b6dbacb3616b4" }, "historical_artifact": { "bytes": 16076880, "directory": "artifacts/walkforward/crypto_carry_wk", "equity_sha256": "37598579af6f34892e40902e2a357e4b07993b3e572012a1da311f7e91798a2a", "files": 127, "legs": 25, "required_ledgers_per_leg": [ "equity.parquet", "fills.parquet", "funding.parquet", "orders.parquet", "positions.parquet" ], "root_sha256": "1dcc04fb0b24c7cddfcff61406d25dd4cd3ade9a9ed9d19f592452bbff957008", "walkforward_sha256": "a72c11172a730536336a079d26394cd926f88df06ce36cb3b5483159a99464ee" }, "replay_receipt": { "content_hash": "sha256:d1fb9ae03ca6b092a34e204450216f79cd5d7a96f84615c957f9b7f583c19eaf", "path": "artifacts/probe/crypto_carry_frozen_current_code_replay/replay_receipt.json", "sha256": "bad33660d9f783779cb2ad38017839e2c35ad2c83cf31ae620b30663741f0dd1" } }, "causal_evidence": { "exactly_established": [ { "detail": "EOS is the sole source-only first-decision member; restoring it to the otherwise current cross-section reproduces all ten historical quantities.", "finding": "FIRST_DECISION_MUTABLE_UNIVERSE_CAUSE" }, { "detail": "Every comparable order decision price, position mark, funding mark and funding rate is byte-numerically equal. This rules out value drift on overlapping records, not missing rows or membership-state drift.", "finding": "OVERLAPPING_EXOGENOUS_MARKS_AND_FUNDING_RATES_EXACT" }, { "detail": "The replay records realized_leg_bound on 71 of 224 rebalances; the historical artifact predates and lacks that counter.", "finding": "CURRENT_REALIZED_VOL_LEG_EXECUTED" } ], "missing_counterfactual_cells": [ "historical exact code x historical exact derived-input snapshot", "current code x the same historical exact derived-input snapshot", "historical exact code x current derived-input snapshot", "current code x current derived-input snapshot" ], "not_identifiable_from_surviving_evidence": [ "exact standalone terminal-equity or Sharpe contribution of universe drift", "exact standalone terminal-equity or Sharpe contribution of the realized-vol correction", "interaction contribution between changed holdings, costs, funding, drawdown state and overlay state", "byte-exact source tree used by the historical execution" ], "recoverability": "The current/current cell exists. The historical/historical output exists, but its exact code and derived inputs do not. Because the missing historical snapshots were never sealed, the other cells cannot now be made exact by rerunning the same command.", "why_additive_decomposition_is_invalid": "Orders change holdings; holdings change funding, costs, equity, realized volatility and drawdown state; those states change later orders. With only two realized paths, the counterfactual cells and their interactions are absent. Subtracting aggregate metrics cannot identify causal component effects." }, "claim_boundary": "This audit proves where the surviving paths agree, where they diverge, one exact initial cause, and why the total metric delta cannot be uniquely split among causes. It does not estimate unobserved counterfactual performance or rehabilitate either result.", "code_archaeology": { "claim_boundary": "Repository history proves the correction exists and identifies a plausible June repository state. It does not prove the byte-exact source tree used by either unbound execution.", "current_replay_exact_source_tree_bound": false, "historical_run_exact_commit_bound": false, "realized_vol_overlay_correction": { "commit": "dd35711497d0e551d61d3593f7fd395a33b0c7b4", "committed_at": "2026-08-18T22:35:47+04:00", "current_audit_strategy_sha256": "e2e247cf5d32fa707f813b11ff8afe32cd01b3d46a831d25f030810a4f3bc1f4", "current_replay_realized_leg_bound_counter": true, "historical_candidate_strategy_git_blob": "8693bcd00e5a9ca2bf9ea2fd1807af64346d4d15", "subject": "fix(overlay): measure the realized vol leg on the unlevered book" }, "repository_state_candidate_not_run_authority": { "artifact_filesystem_mtime": "2026-06-20T15:24:49.816414356+00:00", "commit": "fd3e930f41b0a62b222ecda4ab83bae21a4ce9f2", "committed_at": "2026-06-20T14:15:36+04:00", "selection_method": "last repository commit preceding the preserved walkforward.json filesystem mtime; this cannot exclude uncommitted or alternate-branch state", "strategy_git_blob": "8693bcd00e5a9ca2bf9ea2fd1807af64346d4d15", "subject": "feat(equity): dollar-neutral L/S option (Sigma w=0) \u2014 removes the inverse-vol net tilt" } }, "content_hash": "sha256:1992e5bb6027222bc82ab1a66bb179c2c74b0d0cec62ba43d0baf12cd1fd5bfa", "decision": { "exact_additive_causal_decomposition_possible": false, "external_submission_block_should_remain": true, "full_path_drift_quantified": true, "historical_result_should_remain_preserved_with_correction": true, "repeat_current_state_replay_would_resolve_missing_history": false, "surviving_evidence_exhausted": true }, "declared_run_alignment": { "declared_instrument_count": 58, "instrument_ids_exactly_equal": true, "leg_boundaries_exactly_equal": true, "leg_count": 25, "n_rebalances_replay": 224, "n_rebalances_source": 224 }, "observed_path": { "equity": { "first_divergence": { "delta_replay_minus_source": -0.08753026649355888, "replay_equity": 100088.83227235998, "row": 1, "source_equity": 100088.91980262648, "ts": 1644285600000 }, "maximum_absolute_difference": 35442.22073910621, "rows": 37776, "terminal_difference": -34901.10954384602, "timestamps_exactly_equal": true, "unequal_equity_rows": 37775 }, "funding": { "columns": { "mark_price": { "all_finite_pairs_exact": true, "exact_pairs": 32841, "finite_pairs": 32841, "maximum_absolute_difference": 0.0 }, "payment_quote": { "all_finite_pairs_exact": false, "exact_pairs": 1479, "finite_pairs": 32841, "maximum_absolute_difference": 35.658297 }, "position_qty": { "all_finite_pairs_exact": false, "exact_pairs": 190, "finite_pairs": 32841, "maximum_absolute_difference": 4973717.0 }, "rate": { "all_finite_pairs_exact": true, "exact_pairs": 32841, "finite_pairs": 32841, "maximum_absolute_difference": 0.0 } }, "comparison_key": [ "leg", "ts_funding", "instrument_id" ], "overlap_keys": 32841, "replay_only_keys": 11797, "replay_rows": 44638, "source_only_keys": 19987, "source_rows": 52828 }, "orders": { "columns": { "decision_price": { "all_finite_pairs_exact": true, "exact_pairs": 40042, "finite_pairs": 40042, "maximum_absolute_difference": 0.0 }, "qty": { "all_finite_pairs_exact": false, "exact_pairs": 22813, "finite_pairs": 40480, "maximum_absolute_difference": 4755665.0 } }, "comparison_key": [ "leg", "decision_ts", "instrument_id", "side" ], "overlap_keys": 40480, "replay_only_keys": 292449, "replay_rows": 332929, "source_only_keys": 77730, "source_rows": 118210 }, "per_leg": [ { "leg": 0, "risk_counter_delta_replay_minus_source": { "bars_half_gross": 8, "bars_halted_flat": 0, "hold_between_rebalance": -8, "hold_cov_cold_start": 0, "hold_degenerate_xsection": 0, "hold_stale_signal": 0, "n_auto_rearms": 0, "n_fallback_used": 0, "n_rebalances": 0, "realized_leg_bound": 4 }, "summary_delta_replay_minus_source": { "cagr": -0.035176893477977034, "fees_paid": 14.547661953342924, "final_equity": -947.0765560004656, "funding_net": -3.8218715998887802, "max_dd": 0.009890700195925861, "sharpe": -0.008276756129279583, "turnover_ann": 1.908810173694988 }, "test_end": 1649721600000, "test_start": 1644278400000 }, { "leg": 1, "risk_counter_delta_replay_minus_source": { "bars_half_gross": -538, "bars_halted_flat": 336, "hold_between_rebalance": 201, "hold_cov_cold_start": 0, "hold_degenerate_xsection": 0, "hold_stale_signal": 0, "n_auto_rearms": 1, "n_fallback_used": -1, "n_rebalances": -1, "realized_leg_bound": 1 }, "summary_delta_replay_minus_source": { "cagr": 0.07325865816004817, "fees_paid": -15.75184596853083, "final_equity": 387.6189648065483, "funding_net": 9.975086839115761, "max_dd": 0.01634649569541291, "sharpe": 0.5771618837204918, "turnover_ann": -1.6858530494731383 }, "test_end": 1655164800000, "test_start": 1649721600000 }, { "leg": 2, "risk_counter_delta_replay_minus_source": { "bars_half_gross": -1479, "bars_halted_flat": -33, "hold_between_rebalance": 1503, "hold_cov_cold_start": 0, "hold_degenerate_xsection": 0, "hold_stale_signal": 0, "n_auto_rearms": 0, "n_fallback_used": 0, "n_rebalances": 0, "realized_leg_bound": 9 }, "summary_delta_replay_minus_source": { "cagr": 0.023746563691835032, "fees_paid": -6.597053531002189, "final_equity": 797.9979247597512, "funding_net": 717.9431077336071, "max_dd": 0.02868260610499862, "sharpe": 1.4584529440389895, "turnover_ann": -1.2613216875172917 }, "test_end": 1660608000000, "test_start": 1655164800000 }, { "leg": 3, "risk_counter_delta_replay_minus_source": { "bars_half_gross": 0, "bars_halted_flat": -303, "hold_between_rebalance": 302, "hold_cov_cold_start": 0, "hold_degenerate_xsection": 0, "hold_stale_signal": 0, "n_auto_rearms": -1, "n_fallback_used": 1, "n_rebalances": 1, "realized_leg_bound": 7 }, "summary_delta_replay_minus_source": { "cagr": 0.1414080438230676, "fees_paid": 29.395008151992926, "final_equity": 2760.9095567570184, "funding_net": 119.63441731749208, "max_dd": -0.007595121072106914, "sharpe": 1.8349962185129574, "turnover_ann": 3.264702020201316 }, "test_end": 1666051200000, "test_start": 1660608000000 }, { "leg": 4, "risk_counter_delta_replay_minus_source": { "bars_half_gross": 1233, "bars_halted_flat": 0, "hold_between_rebalance": -1226, "hold_cov_cold_start": 0, "hold_degenerate_xsection": 0, "hold_stale_signal": 0, "n_auto_rearms": 0, "n_fallback_used": 0, "n_rebalances": 0, "realized_leg_bound": 3 }, "summary_delta_replay_minus_source": { "cagr": -0.3011067688009219, "fees_paid": -5.917015404373672, "final_equity": -3470.886771105579, "funding_net": -447.86765238926, "max_dd": 0.04236535581739986, "sharpe": -2.6112943873794734, "turnover_ann": -0.4332955259053861 }, "test_end": 1671494400000, "test_start": 1666051200000 }, { "leg": 5, "risk_counter_delta_replay_minus_source": { "bars_half_gross": 1462, "bars_halted_flat": 0, "hold_between_rebalance": -1454, "hold_cov_cold_start": 0, "hold_degenerate_xsection": 0, "hold_stale_signal": 0, "n_auto_rearms": 0, "n_fallback_used": 0, "n_rebalances": 0, "realized_leg_bound": 0 }, "summary_delta_replay_minus_source": { "cagr": -0.28951019248530496, "fees_paid": -3.21549429419872, "final_equity": -6966.952049857515, "funding_net": -719.3008601030471, "max_dd": -0.0014908059813159014, "sharpe": -1.3298869949340877, "turnover_ann": 1.0484454413948079 }, "test_end": 1676937600000, "test_start": 1671494400000 }, { "leg": 6, "risk_counter_delta_replay_minus_source": { "bars_half_gross": 1216, "bars_halted_flat": 0, "hold_between_rebalance": -1209, "hold_cov_cold_start": 0, "hold_degenerate_xsection": 0, "hold_stale_signal": 0, "n_auto_rearms": 0, "n_fallback_used": 0, "n_rebalances": 0, "realized_leg_bound": 1 }, "summary_delta_replay_minus_source": { "cagr": -0.06938775858457724, "fees_paid": -42.96526619215342, "final_equity": -8025.608117705109, "funding_net": -278.1148013946279, "max_dd": 0.01693006132171493, "sharpe": -1.3073382725218416, "turnover_ann": -3.2365105472072493 }, "test_end": 1682380800000, "test_start": 1676937600000 }, { "leg": 7, 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"instrument_id" ], "overlap_keys": 256859, "replay_only_keys": 94736, "replay_rows": 351595, "source_only_keys": 158012, "source_rows": 414871 }, "risk_counters": { "delta_replay_minus_source": { "bars_half_gross": 13198, "bars_halted_flat": 0, "hold_between_rebalance": -13121, "hold_cov_cold_start": 0, "hold_degenerate_xsection": 0, "hold_stale_signal": 0, "n_auto_rearms": 0, "n_fallback_used": 0, "n_rebalances": 0, "realized_leg_bound": 71 }, "replay": { "bars_half_gross": 17489, "bars_halted_flat": 336, "hold_between_rebalance": 19829, "hold_cov_cold_start": 0, "hold_degenerate_xsection": 0, "hold_stale_signal": 0, "n_auto_rearms": 1, "n_fallback_used": 224, "n_rebalances": 224, "realized_leg_bound": 71 }, "source": { "bars_half_gross": 4291, "bars_halted_flat": 336, "hold_between_rebalance": 32950, "hold_cov_cold_start": 0, "hold_degenerate_xsection": 0, "hold_stale_signal": 0, "n_auto_rearms": 1, "n_fallback_used": 224, "n_rebalances": 224 } } }, "required_governance_change": "Future measured results must atomically bind the exact derived signal frame, universe intervals, complete SCD2 metadata, market/funding partitions, source tree, lockfile and configuration before the output can be called reproducible.", "schema": "canli.alphac-crypto-carry-full-path-drift-audit.v1", "scope": "zero-new-trial forensic comparison of the complete surviving source and replay output paths; not a return experiment, counterfactual backtest, or replication", "status": "PASS_SURVIVING_EVIDENCE_EXHAUSTED_EXACT_ADDITIVE_CAUSAL_SPLIT_NOT_IDENTIFIABLE", "trial_accounting": { "classification": "OUTPUT_FORENSICS_AND_IDENTIFIABILITY_AUDIT_ONLY", "full_walkforward_reruns": 0, "new_return_hypotheses": 0, "new_trials": 0 } }, "walkforward_input_snapshot_protocol": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "bindings": { "src/alphaforge/analytics/walkforward.py": { "bytes": 80475, "sha256": "cd40981da0e9875e47bf8debd9eaf02deed1e45fc355d33572f2332f61e4cbab" }, "src/alphaforge/data/store/reader.py": { "bytes": 16829, "sha256": "3438b524af4047765b4175f807cada85f8de9a0fb43e8d3e548fa81970b93bfd" }, "src/alphaforge/validation/input_snapshot.py": { "bytes": 14306, "sha256": "c0a3f5842a3387f0f5922b87fcd31495181e32e67b458597f0105eae6ac93533" }, "tests/unit/test_walkforward.py": { "bytes": 15497, "sha256": "4e3b2a9b638300d9becb57849d201faa36963f686c6440993dbb79645556e3d2" }, "tests/unit/test_walkforward_input_snapshot.py": { "bytes": 6081, "sha256": "907393a4ea0e6a2d9fb57bea3ceb59b4fc91c6629c57565751b94015152860f7" } }, "claim_boundary": "This receipt proves the control exists in the bound source and is structurally invoked before persisted walk-forward execution. Focused tests separately exercise atomicity, lake-replacement immunity, tamper failure and result binding. It is not a performance result or a retroactive historical snapshot.", "content_hash": "sha256:84d48c7cbba5d6c307d27f15ade8ac491bb56efcbf377bdefa5c006a5c34576f", "enforcement": { "atomic_sibling_directory_promotion": true, "automatic_for_every_persisted_walkforward": true, "existing_snapshot_overwrite_refused": true, "first_execution_call_line": 1033, "manifest_bound_into_walkforward_config": true, "payloads": [ "exact derived signal frame", "overlapping point-in-time universe intervals", "complete SCD2 history for every declared instrument", "hard-linked or copied execution OHLCV/funding/corporate-action partitions", "resolved settings and declared run parameters", "dirty local Python source tree, YAML profiles, pyproject and uv.lock" ], "private_data_rights_default": true, "sealed_before_first_execution_leg": true, "snapshot_call_line": 1000, "validator_rehashes_every_payload": true }, "retroactivity": { "authorizes_historical_exact_replay_claim": false, "reason": "A prospective control cannot reconstruct bytes that a historical run never sealed.", "repairs_historical_missing_snapshot": false }, "schema": "canli.alphac-walkforward-input-snapshot-protocol-receipt.v1", "status": "PASS_PROSPECTIVE_PRIVATE_INPUT_SNAPSHOT_ENFORCED", "trial_accounting": { "classification": "REPRODUCIBILITY_INFRASTRUCTURE_ONLY", "new_return_hypotheses": 0, "new_trials": 0 } }, "crypto_carry_replay_correction": { "author": "Arhan Canli", "bindings": { "current_state_replay": { "path": "artifacts/probe/crypto_carry_frozen_current_code_replay/walkforward.json", "sha256": "0bcaddbbd75e3ae818303a3e577d7c8c8654f9e51358b70edf9c040d49b5ab50" }, "first_rebalance_attribution": { "content_hash": "sha256:6c5dd9216be1d511b4d1e05f38fc511f048d27fad37df37ff7779cb01b126da1", "path": "artifacts/probe/crypto_carry_replay_drift/first_rebalance_attribution.json", "sha256": "3beefed135322c4617ca5e547eea20423a90b2fb07e02b60a53b6dbacb3616b4" }, "full_path_attribution": { "content_hash": "sha256:1992e5bb6027222bc82ab1a66bb179c2c74b0d0cec62ba43d0baf12cd1fd5bfa", "path": "artifacts/probe/crypto_carry_replay_drift/full_path_attribution.json", "sha256": "f85ced2598b88241f1b8458ecc16cddc2c850c1dd815affa167dac94627d540a" }, "prospective_input_snapshot_protocol": { "content_hash": "sha256:84d48c7cbba5d6c307d27f15ade8ac491bb56efcbf377bdefa5c006a5c34576f", "path": "artifacts/audit/walkforward_input_snapshot_protocol.json", "sha256": "44bf99842fb6097755b8c28e95e4431e80433b12a84c717b889957d49bada007" }, "selected_historical_artifact": { "path": "artifacts/walkforward/crypto_carry_wk/walkforward.json", "sha256": "a72c11172a730536336a079d26394cd926f88df06ce36cb3b5483159a99464ee" }, "truthful_replay_receipt": { "content_hash": "sha256:d1fb9ae03ca6b092a34e204450216f79cd5d7a96f84615c957f9b7f583c19eaf", "path": "artifacts/probe/crypto_carry_frozen_current_code_replay/replay_receipt.json", "sha256": "bad33660d9f783779cb2ad38017839e2c35ad2c83cf31ae620b30663741f0dd1" } }, "causal_findings": { "first_rebalance": { "cause": "The historical decision cross-section contained EOS while the current derived-universe snapshot did not. Restoring EOS exactly reproduces all ten historical discretized quantities.", "replay_cross_section_size": 21, "source_cross_section_size": 22, "source_only": [ "BINANCE:PERP:EOSUSDT" ], "status": "EXACTLY_ATTRIBUTED" }, "full_path": { "claim_boundary": "The complete surviving output path has been compared. Overlapping decision prices, position marks, funding marks and funding rates are exact; holdings and state paths are not. Because the historical run omitted its exact code and derived-input snapshots, no unique additive dollar or Sharpe split among causes exists from the surviving two paths.", "confirmed_contributors": [ "MUTABLE_DERIVED_UNIVERSE_NOT_BOUND_BY_HISTORICAL_ARTIFACT", "CURRENT_REALIZED_VOL_OVERLAY_DIFFERS_FROM_HISTORICAL_IMPLEMENTATION" ], "observed_current_realized_leg_bound_rebalances": 71, "software_correction_commit": "dd35711497d0e551d61d3593f7fd395a33b0c7b4", "status": "SURVIVING_EVIDENCE_EXHAUSTED_EXACT_ADDITIVE_SPLIT_NOT_IDENTIFIABLE" } }, "claim_boundary": "This incident proves a material non-reproduction, exactly attributes the first sizing difference, exhausts the surviving full-path evidence, and proves why an additive causal split is not identifiable. 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Historical candidates remain unassessable until every required PIT input is supplied; this artifact is not a claim that current or historical portfolios passed the crowding gate.", "source_sha256": { "crowding": "ba8e2069f00e1fe3eb30914f7e4afdef486f760744e5a23f7f488b0ababc1c70", "pretrade": "05e62410af6942e0012778c37e7f5cd57583fcbd0d0865b64df6536450b3744d", "crowding_tests": "c6e6fa7803f1f9ac547f4cb7e19f79b112450a773006a5c11d909aa4dfb2e606", "pretrade_tests": "d687ed1ee7dec0846064cdf878d9f28861c190f1c6792849b823beff6813c13a" }, "content_hash": "sha256:8ea73a8027a97967e0d4b3de0e5068c64d2c720f31bd9cbd6e79c307fa9047dc" }, "source_sha256": "7452ead87c5da2ea3b65647e1c394037dd1a4dcd3eddc0077e651b954a28bf2d", "public_path": "/glassbox/crowding_risk_contract.json", "book_path": "/research/crowding-risk-foundation.md", "source_path": "artifacts/engineering/crowding_risk_contract.json" }, "futures_execution": { "contract": { "schema": "alphaforge.futures-execution-contract.v1", "classification": "engineering capability; not return or admission evidence", "status": "DOMAIN_PRIMITIVES_ONLY", "trial_accounting": { "market_data_opened": false, "returns_evaluated": false, "hypotheses_spent": 0 }, "implemented": [ "canonical FUTURE asset and market identities", "point-in-time contract metadata availability", "first-notice and last-trade exit buffers counted in supplied exchange sessions", "mandatory roll to the immediate next expiry or fail-closed flatten", "multi-observation next-contract volume confirmation", "locked-limit-up and locked-limit-down execution classification", "linear daily variation-margin cashflow", "hard rejection of generic crypto fee and calendar fallbacks" ], "invariants": { "roll_direction": "immediate next listed expiry only; never skip a lineage gap", "deadline": "earliest of first-notice and last-trade session buffers", "future_data": "metadata or liquidity available after decision raises LookaheadError", "missing_successor": "mandatory exit flattens when immediate successor is unavailable", "missing_liquidity": "volume roll holds; limit-state execution blocks" }, "not_implemented": [ "exchange/product session calendar ingestion", "dated-contract settlement/quote/volume market-data ingestion", "venue and product fee, exchange, initial-margin and maintenance-margin schedules", "continuous-series construction and roll-return attribution", "end-to-end backtest ledger integration", "futures broker routing or live order reconciliation", "historical limit-event and exchange-outage replay" ], "claim_boundary": "These primitives prevent several classes of futures lifecycle leakage and unsafe fallback. They do not make any existing ETF proxy sleeve a futures sleeve and do not qualify a strategy for admission.", "source_sha256": { "implementation": "555ffc2c8e5ac7baad5b6f9dc0e529cb658ef808bec25c7a6927b5d194387308", "tests": "b6aa0420b0495841839c9324cb1e6735665fdd2da3c48b7c650df75f582f6e7a" }, "content_hash": "sha256:8db474678ea93ea990d0eb977da00765c86f42ecabcad556672b56bf0dd3b9f4" }, "source_sha256": "364948261c84f41ff9d453da0146bf3b21a26bd3df73b1837686ed2aa229c112", "public_path": "/glassbox/futures_execution_contract.json", "book_path": "/research/futures-execution-foundation.md", "source_path": "artifacts/engineering/futures_execution_contract.json" }, "market_status_replay": { "contract": { "schema": "alphaforge.market-status-contract.v4", "classification": "engineering capability; not return or admission evidence", "status": "EVENT_DRIVEN_BACKTEST_INTEGRATED", "coverage_status": "REVIEWED_INGEST_AND_BOUND_PREFLIGHT_NO_BUNDLED_CORPUS", "trial_accounting": { "market_data_opened": false, "returns_evaluated": false, "hypotheses_spent": 0 }, "implemented": [ "PIT venue-wide and instrument-specific status intervals", "explicit OPEN, HALTED, OUTAGE, AUCTION_ONLY, and CLOSE_ONLY states", "future-known status rejection and per-scope overlap rejection", "instrument status precedence over venue status", "coverage-complete run-level preflight for every instrument over the full backtest interval before bars are read", "halt, outage, and auction-only execution blocking even when a bar exists", "close-only risk-increase blocking with reduce-only permission", "no-provider compatibility path preserved", "strict reviewed manifests bound to the exact SHA-256 digest of supplied source bytes", "separate source publication, event observation, historical availability, local capture, and review timestamps", "dual-review qualification and collision-checked source-record identities", "exact official-exchange versus vendor reconciliation of status, scope, and effective interval", "reconciliation-only pre-run coverage audit over explicit required instrument intervals without treating source silence as OPEN", "instrument-over-venue precedence, future-known blocking without fallback, exact covered/gap duration reconciliation, and lineage-bearing coverage segments", "reviewed provider construction refuses disclosed gaps and binds each requested run to a deterministic source-reconciled coverage-audit hash" ], "invariants": { "source_lineage": "unknown manifest fields, source-byte digest mismatch, identity collisions, credential-bearing/non-HTTPS URLs, and impossible timestamp order fail closed", "historical_availability": "replay knowledge is bounded by the source-disclosed available_at timestamp; local capture and review remain separately auditable", "independent_confirmation": "reconciliation requires dual-reviewed official and vendor observations with distinct source identities and bytes and exact economic agreement", "coverage_preflight": "every required millisecond must resolve to an effective reconciled event already available at that decision boundary; missing and future-known intervals are published explicitly and durations must reconcile exactly", "engine_binding": "enabling market-status replay requires full run-interval coverage before any bar or strategy decision; reviewed runs record the exact coverage-audit hash" }, "not_implemented": [ "a bundled content-verified historical exchange-status corpus, production feed adapters, automated capture, and empirical broad-market coverage evidence", "auction imbalance, queue position, and auction-price formation", "cancel/replace state for resting orders across outage boundaries", "cross-venue smart routing and venue-specific failover", "live broker/exchange status polling and reconciliation", "restart persistence for outage-blocked strategy intents" ], "claim_boundary": "Explicit status replay can block impossible fills, and reviewed source-bound manifests can normalize and exactly reconcile supplied official/vendor records. A preflight audit proves completeness for explicitly supplied requirements and reconciliations and is bound to each reviewed run. No historical status corpus or production adapter is bundled; this does not prove broad-market coverage, model auction prices, or establish live venue failover.", "source_sha256": { "status_implementation": "91c4ec27018353ddea72d06d83c9ebba0e017dc0215ebb4587bacc4a86455e6a", "status_tests": "dbafe152a9849cb53960ada7e28d4341a45c940c5411e8eb490f661559ba33f5", "ingest_implementation": "97559540e3366f1cd4f64cc899f4aad60fced481e169adc49faff12125f0a4e3", "ingest_tests": "f1c5860a3e83f7758b013f6275951589b39ea9b9b5217cfb303891870c0499ba", "event_driven_engine": "5c7d3479ca6ef2a09f2d1faccc4b5f6a9ca1c880897086e40363f88b249b204b", "event_driven_tests": "496a6837e81ee976c31ba5d1e9f60540b3992a78e9f6a672d0070cbce23e4655" }, "content_hash": "sha256:aecb79561f2743175116778ec977ae9d57b490b629f75679f5d981b447740665" }, "source_sha256": "eb8429484b9960ef57c8197ddfdc3e499a02a664aec1cead14ce9823bb609639", "public_path": "/glassbox/market_status_contract.json", "book_path": "/research/market-status-replay.md", "source_path": "artifacts/engineering/market_status_contract.json" }, "options_execution": { "contract": { "schema": "alphaforge.options-execution-contract.v12", "classification": "engineering capability; not return or admission evidence", "status": "DOMAIN_PRIMITIVES_ONLY", "trial_accounting": { "market_data_opened": false, "returns_evaluated": false, "hypotheses_spent": 0 }, "implemented": [ "canonical OPTION asset and market identities", "point-in-time contract-term and quote availability", "crossed-market and stale-quote rejection without strike interpolation", "single-underlying active-lifecycle surfaces with unique economic terms", "positive-size bid/ask-bound call/put monotonicity checks by homogeneous series", "nonuniform-strike convexity checks from displayed bid/ask bounds", "official settlement observations distinct from last trades and midpoints", "cash and physical expiry delivery for signed call and put positions", "automatic-exercise threshold with explicit lapse", "authoritative early-assignment notices for American physical options", "source-bound contiguous point-in-time adjusted-deliverable revisions", "signed multi-asset and multi-currency adjusted baskets for expiry and assignment", "strict exact-decimal reviewed OCC adjustment extraction manifests", "content-addressed point-in-time memo revisions with unresolved and delayed blockers", "allowlisted bounded no-redirect OCC memo transport and immutable content-addressed source archive", "reviewed OCC extractions bound to exact archived bytes available by review time", "exact OCC-versus-vendor adjusted-deliverable economic reconciliation", "ratio-defined multi-leg IOC/FOK package replay crossing side-specific displayed bid/ask prices with explicit homogeneous premium currency and whole-package-unit size caps", "net debit or minimum-credit package limits, ratio-preserving IOC partial fills, and atomic FOK rejection", "optional point-in-time per-leg OPEN/HALTED/OUTAGE/AUCTION_ONLY/CLOSE_ONLY package status replay with fail-closed missing coverage", "close-only package execution only after integer-contract position evidence proves every requested leg reduces without increasing or flipping exposure", "strict source-byte-bound reviewed status manifests with separate publication, observation, availability, capture, and review timestamps", "exact dual-reviewed official-exchange versus vendor status reconciliation usable for OPTION instrument identities", "reconciliation-only status coverage preflight for explicit OPTION instrument intervals with missing and future-known gaps published exactly", "source-reconciled status providers refuse uncovered requested intervals and return a deterministic coverage-audit hash for run artifacts", "exact-decimal point-in-time option fee schedule revisions keyed by venue, account class, product group, and premium currency", "side-, liquidity-, and event-scoped per-contract and premium-rate fees, minima, caps, rebates, explicit component rounding, exercise fees, and assignment fees", "complete-matrix exact-decimal internal option scenario margin with cross-leg P&L netting and locked model/input artifact hashes", "point-in-time initial/maintenance margin policies with scenario-loss multipliers, short-contract floors, gross-short-mark and concentration add-ons", "hard rejection of generic crypto routing and fee fallbacks" ], "invariants": { "future_data": "future-known terms, quotes, settlements, or notices fail closed", "surface_missingness": "unquoted strikes remain absent; no interpolation is invented", "surface_identity": "each snapshot has one underlying; duplicate terms and post-last-trade contracts fail closed", "cross_strike_integrity": "monotonicity and convexity use only same-series, same-premium-currency, positive-size bid/ask bounds", "settlement": "expiry cashflow uses an official post-expiry available observation", "physical_delivery": "underlying and strike-cash deltas preserve call/put and long/short signs", "assignment": "only an observed notice can create early-assignment delivery", "adjusted_deliverables": "only the latest revision both effective and available at the decision may create a deterministic signed asset/cash basket", "adjustment_ingest": "unknown manifest fields, unreviewed or unresolved terms, delayed settlement, reused source content, and cross-vendor economic disagreement fail closed", "occ_source_archive": "memo URL identities are allowlisted; immutable manifests bind observation time, HTTP metadata, exact SHA-256 bytes, and a reverified content-addressed blob", "displayed_package_execution": "positive ratios cross asks, negative ratios cross strictly positive bids, the smallest whole-number displayed leg capacity controls every leg, and execution records require one premium currency and reconcile premium cash to net package debit", "option_market_status": "when status replay is required, every executable leg must have an effective, known status; halts, outages, and continuous fills in auction-only state block, while close-only permits only pre-validated reduce-only packages", "market_status_ingest": "unknown fields, source-digest mismatch, impossible timestamp order, identity collision, future-known use, missing dual review, and cross-source status/scope/interval disagreement fail closed", "market_status_coverage": "source silence never implies OPEN; instrument status keeps precedence over venue status, future-known specific status cannot fall back to venue coverage, and covered plus gap durations must equal every explicit requirement", "option_fee_assessment": "only a schedule revision both effective and available at assessment may apply; trade fees consume accepted leg executions and exact fee lines must reconcile to their Decimal total after declared component rounding, minima, and caps", "internal_scenario_margin": "every scenario must price every position exactly once in one premium currency; future, stale, incomplete, or malformed matrices fail closed and every reported requirement component reconciles to its recorded policy parameters; the snapshot model id must equal the policy risk method" }, "not_implemented": [ "historical OPRA/OptionMetrics quote and terms ingestion", "operational unattended OCC acquisition (the live endpoint returned a Cloudflare HTTP 403 managed challenge to direct and headless-browser clients on 2026-08-18), automated PDF text extraction, a reviewed historical memo corpus, and a production vendor-terms adapter", "implied-volatility fitting, put-call parity/rate-dividend checks, arbitrage repair, and surface interpolation", "dividend, rates, borrow, early-exercise, and assignment-probability models", "a content-verified historical venue/account/product fee corpus and production fee adapter; beyond-displayed-size impact, queue position, complex-order-book price improvement, and complex-order auction execution; a content-verified historical option-status corpus, production status adapters, broad coverage evidence, and live outage polling/failover", "broker/OCC/regulatory margin equivalence, a validated option stress repricer and calibrated scenario corpus, opening-premium collateral integration, margin calls, forced liquidation, and live broker margin reconciliation", "end-to-end options backtest ledger integration", "options broker routing, exercise instructions, or live reconciliation" ], "claim_boundary": "These primitives make option quote, cross-strike integrity, adjusted-deliverable normalization/reconciliation, source-byte archival, displayed-size package crossing, exact fee-assessment semantics, internal scenario-margin arithmetic, and lifecycle assumptions explicit. Internal scenario margin is not broker, clearinghouse, exchange, or regulatory margin and does not include opening premium cash. No historical fee schedule corpus or calibrated venue rates are bundled. The package replay is an atomic crossing assumption over independently displayed legs, not evidence of simultaneous market fillability. Reviewed status manifests can normalize and reconcile supplied PIT records and audit explicitly supplied interval coverage, but no historical option-status corpus, production adapter, broad-market coverage evidence, or live venue polling is bundled. The archive accepts an injectable transport, but current live OCC access is challenge-blocked. These primitives do not constitute a historical OCC corpus, prove adjustment coverage, actual package fillability, fill probability, or price improvement; create a fitted surface, an executable options strategy, or a sleeve-admission case.", "source_sha256": { "implementation": "1758c2a0574eea4143f94a974d9ee3c618f7e8546dd57c030e14ceb629e69c64", "tests": "a50696062b636d9d05e1831f6cabbd32775d3d288ee6523022374f5b92cf43c6", "adjusted_deliverable_implementation": "1ee1ea5410ea7a6ef79352a46172b66c63478269db8e4911c6d68c84f0c9e884", "adjusted_deliverable_tests": "f07d3b62f6a8c1803a23407f82f4f4c5254d6921bf59c83f35972d8ec8834d85", "adjustment_ingest_implementation": "dcb5bbe23446d9517be4e581bc2fadea6d699d85ef23bd8b704804d0cd4ef247", "adjustment_ingest_tests": "c381c2c9f744fb15e6c2c8b5c5f65f4e5848ddb8f4870a9fad46eb1e4e8b37e2", "occ_archive_implementation": "f8ea2ab70c8c5dc7d59b74992e7fb83b662df75f30c559b3c27c13436de9b1ad", "occ_archive_tests": "2273614d9ad9e25546fc4efe542fdc2ae80684b1a389887b49e1acfe8fe4e7a5", "package_execution_implementation": "1b544acd977209a8534e02bb363ccd549c7f4a3df6e4219a97b431e960e1de0f", "package_execution_tests": "717147c3a5687a8c62ef0c28ea1416711895f8e6ec9df58e83273f64a5970386", "fee_assessment_implementation": "8fb43265a101001a1ea4ec7a975266a8b7be1f405d82016fd909a49178dc67f3", "fee_assessment_tests": "ab5a1086ec6dfc24fe879bb8eee07bd90998416b35c8133191cef653260d9adf", "scenario_margin_implementation": "1bdf492e64f801a2788c7501eb24e616c901e681a5ec35a07b71047372df4d91", "scenario_margin_tests": "4d5d741232adf559d95160fb6df46873e17d78773a97b78529c8be7f46b36212", "market_status_ingest_implementation": "97559540e3366f1cd4f64cc899f4aad60fced481e169adc49faff12125f0a4e3", "market_status_ingest_tests": "f1c5860a3e83f7758b013f6275951589b39ea9b9b5217cfb303891870c0499ba" }, "content_hash": "sha256:fd58e9f8a9617f6f26c27bda66ade3b0b04c793b28a2e0dca80db2763d316520" }, "source_sha256": "62294044ea3cffcdcee6c7f50e892950b36e55d68863cf8c00ff7750385ccd7c", "public_path": "/glassbox/options_execution_contract.json", "book_path": "/research/options-execution-foundation.md", "source_path": "artifacts/engineering/options_execution_contract.json" } }, "generated_at": "2026-08-25T14:26:26.676670+00:00", "content_hash": "sha256:c64703f353289b711c504875249ff56e93319fcb5892aa6e43baad4e3087fd85" }