{
  "author": "Arhan Canli",
  "claim_boundary": "This stable packet proves the exact identity, immutable first measurement, and current evidence state. INCOMPLETE means missing sections remain missing; packet publication is not validation, admission, or a future-return claim.",
  "complete": false,
  "completion_assessment": {
    "blockers": [],
    "claim_boundary": "Missing sections are fail-closed evidence debt. This identity has not yet received a source-by-source recoverability audit.",
    "status": "NOT_YET_AUDITED"
  },
  "config_hash": "18165c784f0332de",
  "configuration": {
    "allocator": "baseline",
    "borrow_ann": 0.005,
    "cost_per_side": 0.0006,
    "gross_max": 1.0,
    "probe": "alphatrend_arp",
    "rebalance_bars": 21,
    "signal": "single_110",
    "universe": "managed_futures_17_etfs",
    "variant": "T2_single_110",
    "vol_span": 33
  },
  "content_hash": "sha256:ccf210bb6089a2a53d75dce09cdb72b876d2f806882d19fb3e8814036d2f66a5",
  "evidence_date": "2026-08-22",
  "family_paper_public_path": "/research/alphatrend-managed-futures-lineage.md",
  "hypothesis_key": "0c5ddfb3d5b52ca5",
  "immutable_first_measurement": {
    "annualized_sharpe": 0.271,
    "kurtosis": null,
    "ledger_source_path": "var/experiments.jsonl",
    "ledger_source_sha256": "b5a318c0997d980575f758451f509e0154eecbbb50d734e49a587d473062bd08",
    "observations": 5161,
    "recorded_at_unix_ms": 1786924800073,
    "skew": 0.115
  },
  "label": "alphatrend_arp / T2_single_110",
  "missing_sections": [
    "preregistration_and_hashes",
    "point_in_time_data_and_survivorship_controls",
    "execution_and_cost_model",
    "result_uncertainty_stress_capacity_and_diversification",
    "admission_or_kill_decision",
    "code_environment_and_reproduction"
  ],
  "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED",
  "required_sections": {
    "admission_or_kill_decision": {
      "evidence": [],
      "status": "MISSING_IDENTITY_LEVEL_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "code_environment_and_reproduction": {
      "evidence": [],
      "status": "MISSING_IDENTITY_LEVEL_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "economic_mechanism_and_falsifiable_hypothesis": {
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          "type": "family_paper"
        }
      ],
      "status": "VERIFIED_SHARED_FAMILY_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "execution_and_cost_model": {
      "evidence": [],
      "status": "MISSING_IDENTITY_LEVEL_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "family_and_union_trial_accounting": {
      "evidence": [
        {
          "public_path": "/research/alphatrend-managed-futures-lineage.md",
          "type": "family_paper"
        }
      ],
      "status": "VERIFIED_SHARED_FAMILY_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "identity_and_authorship": {
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          "type": "family_paper"
        }
      ],
      "status": "VERIFIED_SHARED_FAMILY_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "literature_and_overlap_decision": {
      "evidence": [
        {
          "public_path": "/research/alphatrend-managed-futures-lineage.md",
          "type": "family_paper"
        }
      ],
      "status": "VERIFIED_SHARED_FAMILY_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "machine_readable_packet_and_stable_public_paper": {
      "evidence": [
        {
          "public_path": "/research/alphatrend-managed-futures-lineage.md",
          "type": "family_paper"
        }
      ],
      "status": "VERIFIED_SHARED_FAMILY_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "point_in_time_data_and_survivorship_controls": {
      "evidence": [],
      "status": "MISSING_IDENTITY_LEVEL_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "preregistration_and_hashes": {
      "evidence": [],
      "status": "MISSING_IDENTITY_LEVEL_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "result_uncertainty_stress_capacity_and_diversification": {
      "evidence": [],
      "status": "MISSING_IDENTITY_LEVEL_EVIDENCE"
    }
  },
  "research_family_key": "managed_futures_trend",
  "schema": "canli.alphac-identity-trial-packet.v1",
  "verified_sections": [
    "identity_and_authorship",
    "economic_mechanism_and_falsifiable_hypothesis",
    "literature_and_overlap_decision",
    "family_and_union_trial_accounting",
    "machine_readable_packet_and_stable_public_paper"
  ]
}