{
  "author": "Arhan Canli",
  "claim_boundary": "This stable packet proves the exact identity, immutable first measurement, and current evidence state. INCOMPLETE means missing sections remain missing; packet publication is not validation, admission, or a future-return claim.",
  "complete": false,
  "completion_assessment": {
    "blockers": [],
    "claim_boundary": "Missing sections are fail-closed evidence debt. This identity has not yet received a source-by-source recoverability audit.",
    "status": "NOT_YET_AUDITED"
  },
  "config_hash": "db95275a78e25ab1",
  "configuration": {
    "ar_lags": 3,
    "clip": 3.0,
    "cost_oneway_bp": 5.999999999999999,
    "prereg": "docs/design/PREREG_SLEEVE4_INVESTMENT.md / spec locked 2026-08-05",
    "probe": "cpi_surprise_size",
    "series": [
      "PCPI",
      "PCPIX"
    ],
    "sign": -1,
    "spread": "IWM-SPY"
  },
  "content_hash": "sha256:1f626dde70d5f367e839b85c64bd6d955c9ce6de6b10067f512b349e6e199996",
  "evidence_date": "2026-08-22",
  "family_paper_public_path": "/research/macro-economic-trend-lineage.md",
  "hypothesis_key": "df2ff29afd9fcdb8",
  "immutable_first_measurement": {
    "annualized_sharpe": 0.34027975889222084,
    "kurtosis": 26.783649295947033,
    "ledger_source_path": "var/experiments.jsonl",
    "ledger_source_sha256": "b5a318c0997d980575f758451f509e0154eecbbb50d734e49a587d473062bd08",
    "observations": 5977,
    "recorded_at_unix_ms": 1786090191417,
    "skew": 0.43280667449863913
  },
  "label": "cpi_surprise_size",
  "missing_sections": [
    "preregistration_and_hashes",
    "point_in_time_data_and_survivorship_controls",
    "execution_and_cost_model",
    "result_uncertainty_stress_capacity_and_diversification",
    "admission_or_kill_decision",
    "code_environment_and_reproduction"
  ],
  "packet_status": "INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED",
  "required_sections": {
    "admission_or_kill_decision": {
      "evidence": [],
      "status": "MISSING_IDENTITY_LEVEL_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "code_environment_and_reproduction": {
      "evidence": [],
      "status": "MISSING_IDENTITY_LEVEL_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "economic_mechanism_and_falsifiable_hypothesis": {
      "evidence": [
        {
          "public_path": "/research/macro-economic-trend-lineage.md",
          "type": "family_paper"
        }
      ],
      "status": "VERIFIED_SHARED_FAMILY_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "execution_and_cost_model": {
      "evidence": [],
      "status": "MISSING_IDENTITY_LEVEL_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "family_and_union_trial_accounting": {
      "evidence": [
        {
          "public_path": "/research/macro-economic-trend-lineage.md",
          "type": "family_paper"
        }
      ],
      "status": "VERIFIED_SHARED_FAMILY_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "identity_and_authorship": {
      "evidence": [
        {
          "public_path": "/research/macro-economic-trend-lineage.md",
          "type": "family_paper"
        }
      ],
      "status": "VERIFIED_SHARED_FAMILY_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "literature_and_overlap_decision": {
      "evidence": [
        {
          "public_path": "/research/macro-economic-trend-lineage.md",
          "type": "family_paper"
        }
      ],
      "status": "VERIFIED_SHARED_FAMILY_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "machine_readable_packet_and_stable_public_paper": {
      "evidence": [
        {
          "public_path": "/research/macro-economic-trend-lineage.md",
          "type": "family_paper"
        }
      ],
      "status": "VERIFIED_SHARED_FAMILY_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "point_in_time_data_and_survivorship_controls": {
      "evidence": [],
      "status": "MISSING_IDENTITY_LEVEL_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "preregistration_and_hashes": {
      "evidence": [],
      "status": "MISSING_IDENTITY_LEVEL_EVIDENCE"
    },
    "result_uncertainty_stress_capacity_and_diversification": {
      "evidence": [],
      "status": "MISSING_IDENTITY_LEVEL_EVIDENCE"
    }
  },
  "research_family_key": "macro_economic_trend",
  "schema": "canli.alphac-identity-trial-packet.v1",
  "verified_sections": [
    "identity_and_authorship",
    "economic_mechanism_and_falsifiable_hypothesis",
    "literature_and_overlap_decision",
    "family_and_union_trial_accounting",
    "machine_readable_packet_and_stable_public_paper"
  ]
}