Canli Capital is a company you can audit.
AlphaForge is
12 phases of engineering deep, every
phase tested before the next began, and the whole of it is held to a
single standard of proof. This page is the build log, the honest status
of the edge, and where the house goes next.
The order of the work is the thesis. The data integrity, the cost
authority, the validation gauntlet, and the crash-safe execution loop
were built before any serious effort went into chasing return, because a
good backtest only means something on top of a process honest enough to
trust. The engine is statically typed
under mypy strict, every phase is covered by tests that must pass in
continuous integration before the next phase starts, and research and
live code share one path. Nothing here is a prototype dressed up as a
product.
12 phases / 2,820+ tests, green / mypy --strict / CI on every change
02 / Phases
Twelve phases, in theorder they had to come.
The twelve phases group into four arcs of related development, sequenced so
that each phase could be trusted before the next leaned on it. Foundations
first, then signal, then the machinery that decides whether the signal is
real, then the loop that runs it live on paper. Open any phase to read the
component it shipped.
IFoundations3 shipped
Every bar is stamped with the moment it could actually have been
known, to the millisecond. One reader enforces that on every
query, so a decision evaluated at one o'clock may read only what
existed at one o'clock. A leak is not something we hope to avoid.
It is something the data layer will not permit.
The universe includes the instruments that died. Listing and
delisting are recorded as historical facts, so a backtest cannot
quietly drop the names that went to zero and keep only the
winners. The graveyard is in the data, by design.
Research code and live code share the same path. There is no
second implementation that drifts. What the backtester runs is
what the paper loop runs, so a result and a live decision read
from one contract, never two that merely resemble each other.
IISignal3 shipped
50 factors registered across
anomalies and market microstructure: cross-sectional and
time-series momentum, residual reversal, funding carry,
low-volatility and low-beta anomalies, and more. Each measured for
real predictive content before it is allowed to vote.
Yang-Zhang and Parkinson volatility estimators use the full
open-high-low-close bar, not just closes, for a less noisy read
on risk. Amihud illiquidity and the Corwin-Schultz spread
estimator tell the engine what a position will actually cost to
hold and to exit.
The survivors are blended into a single score per instrument,
weighted by how much each factor's measured correlation with
future returns is worth. What does not earn its place is shrunk
toward zero.
IIIPortfolio and proof3 shipped
Scores become positions through an EWMA and Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage
covariance and a mean-variance optimization solved with Clarabel,
with a rank and inverse-volatility fallback. A volatility-target
overlay holds the book at a chosen level of risk, and a drawdown
ladder and kill switch stand behind it.
Event-driven, with a signal computed at a bar's close filled at
the next open, and funding modeled as the discrete cash flow it
actually is. One transaction-cost authority prices every fill, in
research and in paper alike, so the number a strategy earns is the
number it would have paid for in the market.
The machinery that decides whether a signal is real: purged walk-forward, the Deflated and
Probabilistic Sharpe ratios, Probability of Backtest Overfitting
via combinatorially symmetric cross-validation, combinatorially-purged
cross-validation, honest trial counts, and a must-beat-baseline
gate. The full methodology lives on the performance page.
IVIntelligence and live paper3 shipped
A gradient-boosted classifier trained on cost-honest
triple-barrier labels, with isotonically calibrated probabilities
so a stated seventy percent means roughly seventy percent. It is
used only to scale conviction up or down. It never flips a signal.
A hand-rolled Gaussian hidden-Markov model reads the market's
latent regime and throttles gross exposure when the regime is
adverse. It runs filtered, with no lookahead, so its view at any
moment uses only what was knowable then. When the market turns
hostile, the engine carries less.
A loop that walks the live order book for realistic fills, places
idempotent orders so a retry can never double-count, reconciles
its own ledger against the venue, and runs off a single
authoritative clock. State is written down, so a process killed
mid-decision resumes exactly where it stopped. No real capital
touches it.
//
The grouping is the honest dependency chain, not a calendar:
12 shipped phases in four arcs, where
Foundations must hold before Signal is measured, Signal before Portfolio
construction, and Portfolio and ML before the live loop runs.
03 / Edge status
What the build hasand has not proven.
Twelve phases of engineering have produced a system that is, by
construction, hard to fool: leak-proof data, honest costs, and a gauntlet
severe enough that most strategies never survive it. What they have not
yet produced is a standalone crypto edge that clears that gauntlet. We
hold the engineering and the integrity as proven and the crypto edge as
not yet proven (the live record is still
accruing and has not shown sufficient outperformance to claim a real edge),
which is the expected outcome of an honest test, not a failure of one.
Proven
The engineering and the integrity.
Leak-proof, point-in-time data. One cost authority across research and paper. A validation gauntlet built to catch us out. A crash-safe loop that resumes exactly where it stopped.
Proven, modest
Three algorithms, live in paper.
AlphaMax in US equity momentum (standalone Sharpe 0.91) and AlphaForge in crypto funding carry (0.68), near-uncorrelated, combined at equal risk into ALPHAC. Real but modest; the cross-asset book still awaits its live forward record.
Not yet
The standalone crypto edge.
Tested rigorously on crypto perpetual futures alone, the signal is real enough to be interesting and not yet strong enough, after honest deflation and cost, to stake capital on. We say so plainly.
//
A platform that has never reported a strategy failing to clear its own bar
is a platform that is not really running the bar.
Daily bars, equity lake
24M+
US stocks, survivorship-free
8,4361997 to 2026
Point-in-time fundamentals
392K+
Crypto instrument universe (live + delisted)
94
//
Running 24/7 on paper across the live and delisted book. No real capital in
play. The build in the open.
04 / Roadmap
The way forwardis breadth.
A single asset class is a single bet on one market staying inefficient in
one way. The strongest answer to a thin standalone edge is not a louder
claim. It is more, lowly-correlated sources of return run through the
same honest machine. The equity momentum sleeve is already live in the
book; the next breadth is managed-futures trend. The engine
was built multi-asset from the first line of code: one data contract, one
cost authority, one validation library, one execution loop. A new
strategy does not need a new platform. It inherits a
discipline that already exists, and it
has to clear the same gauntlet before it earns a dollar.
04 / The house
One proven. More to come.
One engine, many strategies. AlphaForge runs live on paper today. The
sleeves behind it are reserved seats on the same honest machine, and
each has to clear the same gauntlet before it earns a dollar.
01/04
Algorithm 01
AlphaForge
Cross-asset (equities + crypto)
Paper trading
Algorithm 02
Managed futures
Trend across listed futures
Time-series trend across global listed futures
Planned, next
Algorithm 03
Futures
Listed futures
Futures term-structure and spread-carry
Planned
Algorithm 04
Cross-asset
Breadth across classes
Breadth across equities, futures, and crypto as one system
Planned
05 / Standing
We build the proof in public.
Early access is a seat to watch it happen, in simulation and live paper
trading, with no real money in play.