# Crypto defensive factors: two positive summaries without admission evidence

**Short title:** Crypto defensive factors: complete trial lineage  
**Author:** Arhan Canli, Founder and Quantitative Researcher, Canli Capital  
**Family key:** `crypto_defensive` · **System:** ALPHAC / AlphaForge  
**Status:** public research record; not peer reviewed; not an investment solicitation

## Finding and boundary

Two immutable identities test 720-hour low-volatility and low-beta ranks. Their annualized Sharpe
summaries are +0.6946 and +0.6295 over 1,247 observations. The economic prior is that leverage
constraints and preference for lottery-like assets can leave defensive assets underpriced; the
canonical betting-against-beta evidence is Frazzini and Pedersen
([Journal of Financial Economics](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.10.005)). That prior does
not validate a crypto implementation.

Both rows are positive, but only immutable summary moments are bound family-wide. Neither row has
an identity-matched public curve, DSR, maximum drawdown, capacity sweep, crisis correlation, or
broker-reconciled forward record. A related low-volatility artifact is hashed in the machine
packet, but it does not fill every identity-level section. Low volatility and low beta are one
defensive family, not two sleeves, and may still load on liquidity and market crashes.

**Decision: NOT ESTABLISHED / zero sleeves.** Positive Sharpe summaries cannot bypass the current
228-trial deflation and execution gates. The public evidence is
[`crypto_defensive_family.json`](/glassbox/crypto_defensive_family.json) and the global join is
[`trial_packet_manifest.json`](/glassbox/trial_packet_manifest.json). Research and implementation
were authored and directed by **Arhan Canli**; no Alpaca return is attributed to this family.