# Petroleum inventory scarcity: one negative macro-commodity identity

**Short title:** Petroleum inventory scarcity: trial lineage  
**Author:** Arhan Canli, Founder and Quantitative Researcher, Canli Capital  
**Family key:** `energy_inventory` · **System:** ALPHAC / AlphaForge  
**Status:** public research record; not peer reviewed; not an investment solicitation

## Finding and boundary

The hypothesis is that first-release petroleum inventory scarcity contains information about
subsequent energy returns after seasonal normalization. One charged EIA identity produced
annualized Sharpe -0.5893 across 2,669 observations, skew -1.5157, and kurtosis 30.2245. The result
is negative and left-tailed.

Inventory theory links convenience yield and scarcity to commodity pricing; Gorton, Hayashi, and
Rouwenhorst provide broad evidence on commodity inventories
([Review of Financial Studies](https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhq109)). That mechanism does not
validate this release-timed implementation. It also overlaps commodity carry and macro growth
exposure and therefore is not an automatic independent sleeve.

The related probe artifact is SHA-256 bound, but family-wide drawdown, current-union DSR, capacity,
and broker-forward evidence are not established. **Decision: FAIL / zero sleeves.** Machine
evidence is [`energy_inventory_family.json`](/glassbox/energy_inventory_family.json). Research and
implementation were authored and directed by **Arhan Canli**; no live return is claimed.