The research Every test, including the kills

00 / The research

How we got here.

Most ideas die. We publish them anyway, including the ones that did.

Every factor we tested, across crypto and US equities, with its real net-of-cost Sharpe and what we did with it. Two survived. Most we killed.

Execution basis: paper trading and local simulation. “Live” below describes running systems, not funded execution. Model expectations are not measured forward returns. Inspect the forward evidence.

-- factors tested -- survived -- killed across -- families forward -- Sharpe grade --

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01 / Factor tests

Every test, its real Sharpe, and its real Rank-IC.

Every test we ran, with its net-of-cost Sharpe and Rank-IC.

// Rank-IC is the cross-sectional information coefficient with a Newey-West t-stat. Net Sharpe is the purged walk-forward result after the cost model. Select a row for its full performance, its Rank-IC by horizon, and the source artifact.

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02 / What survived

Four sleeves. One neutral core. Real, decorrelated, and honestly modest.

AlphaForge, AlphaMax, AlphaTrend, and AlphaVintage span funding carry, equity momentum, managed futures, and point-in-time macro. Equal-quarter sleeve weights form ALPHAC's neutral core; the disclosed +10% strategic beta overlay remains a separate line and is not called alpha.

-- Full-sample correlation
-- On equity down-days
-- Stress union

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In-sample, research window

NOT the forward expectation

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Sharpe
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CAGR
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Max DD
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Honest forward expectation

After multiple-testing deflation
Sharpe
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Return (vol-targeted)
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Worst DD
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Combined-book deflation

Deflation verdict
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DSR gate
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Standalone equity DSR
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Standalone crypto DSR
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-- Honest grade

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  • Equity capacity --
  • Crypto carry capacity --
  • BTC-correlation cap --
  • Equity survivors --

03 / Methodology

The data layer blocks leaks at the source, not after the fact.

The validation method in plain language: point-in-time data, purged walk-forward, deflation gates, pre-registration, and a byte-reproducible backtest.

Read the execution-model boundary Engineering quality boundary Machine-readable lint debt Inspect the local execution benchmark Read the dated-futures execution foundation Read the options surface and lifecycle foundation Read the securities-borrow foundation Read the market-status and outage replay contract Read the crowding and stressed-capacity contract Read the corporate-action and delisting lifecycle contract

04 / Crypto alone

Crypto alone is a null net of cost. Here is the proof.

Before the equity ballast, we ran crypto perpetuals through the deflation gates on their own. The result is NO-DEPLOY. The edge is too thin to survive cost.

-- -- -- trials best config --

Deflated Sharpe (shared) --
-- gate --
Prob. of backtest overfitting --
-- gate < --

Capacity decay, annualised Sharpe by deployed capital

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05 / Research frontier

A target is not a result.

The next sleeves must add independent economic return sources and survive the same gauntlet.

// Feasibility comes before returns. A data-gated result is published as a constraint, not quietly removed from the queue. Credentials are requested only after a specific candidate clears its key-free evidence screen.

Read the sealed AlphaVintage missing-release correction
Book deflated Sharpe
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PBO
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Average correlation
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Target breadth
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ATLAS / Stage-zero breadth

240 coverage cells. Zero sleeves claimed.

Every identity is screened before returns. Taxonomy is not performance evidence.

Economic families
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Coverage cells
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Novel atlas families
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Active feasibility
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Retired / killed
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Overlap review
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Lineage audit
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Gate evaluations
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New sleeves admitted
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Checks per survivor
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Execution dimensions
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Inspect all 240 identities Inspect all 2,880 gate evaluations Inspect source-bound lineage Inspect the admission contract

LIBRARY / Published in full

111 research documents

Every literature review, feasibility protocol, pre-registration and correction this programme has produced, including the ones that killed the candidate. Each is published whole, with its unrendered source beside it.

06 / Roadmap

The binding constraint is sample length, not idea count.

The constraint is trustworthy evidence, not idea count. From here, three steps.

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This export

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Methodology and questions Read every measurement in full Inspect every registered trial See it proven in the open Join the waitlist