Glass box Every number read from a real artifact

00 / The glass box

Proven in the open.

Including the strategies that failed, with their real numbers.

Every figure here is read straight from a real engine artifact, never typed by hand, down to the sleeves we killed and the grade we did not pass.

  • Zero fabrication. If a value is not available, the element is omitted, never invented.
  • No fake history. The live track record accrues from go-live. It claims no history it did not live.
  • Failures published. Killed sleeves, the C+ deflation null, all in full.
  • Reproducible. The backtest is content-hashed and reproduces byte-for-byte: re-run the engine, get the same numbers.

-- killed -- survived -- deflation grade -- accruing

Scroll

01 / Live track record

We publish no return until it is earned in the open.

The live paper record begins at go-live and is shown only as it accrues.

Status --
-- days accruing
Go-live
--
Live NAV
--
Live return
--
Baseline
--

--

02 / The kill log

Most ideas die. We publish ours, with their real numbers.

The strategies that failed, with their real net-of-cost Sharpe.

// --

Select a row to see why it lived or died. Killed sleeves leave the book and are not re-tuned.

Strategy Net Sharpe Return Max DD Period Verdict

03 / Pre-registration

We committed the trial budget before we touched the data.

The trial budget was committed to git before any sleeve touched the lake.

Trial budget, hard ceiling
--
Document
--

Measure-once protocol Budget and test design were fixed before the data was touched. The final count cannot be cherry-picked. --

Expected --

Actual --

04 / The deflation verdict

Crypto alone did not clear the bar. We publish the null in full.

The grade on crypto alone, read straight from the artifact.

Deflated Sharpe (shared) --
-- gate --
Prob. of backtest overfitting --
-- gate < --

Capacity decay, annualised Sharpe by deployed capital

-- Deflation grade

--

--

05 / Capacity & scalability

Size has a price. The crypto carry caps near $10M.

How much capital this book can run before the edge decays, told straight.

Forward book Sharpe by deployed capital AUM (log) to deflated forward Sharpe
Crypto carry capacity -- --

--

Equity-core threshold -- --

--

// --

Deflated forward Sharpe
-- to -- · central --
Net return, 14% vol-target
--

// Our commitment about all of this, signed so we cannot quietly walk it back:

    --

    06 / Reproducibility

    Content-hashed. Byte-reproducible. Reproduce our numbers.

    A golden-master test asserts every fill, fee and funding payment from hand-written arithmetic.

    Verify us in one command

    // Download our published files and our verifier, and check every number yourself. No install, no data, no taking our word: it recomputes each artifact's content hash, re-checks the Ed25519 signatures, and (in the repo) reruns the golden master. 

    curl -sO https://canlicapital.com/glassbox/reproduce.py
for f in capacity deflation track_record kill_log pre_registration \
         red_team reproducibility research capacity_commitment; do
  curl -sO https://canlicapital.com/glassbox/$f.json
done
python3 reproduce.py --dir .   # -> ALL CHECKS REPRODUCED

    We claim. --

    We do not claim. --

    -- -- lines

    --

    Verifiability

    Fill-price tolerance
    --
    Funding settlements, real BTC week
    --
    Registered factors
    --

    Tamper-evident track record

    // Every published day is hashed, chained to the day before, and Ed25519-signed. Change any past day and every signature after it breaks. The chain head is also stamped into the Bitcoin blockchain, a clock we don't control, so we can't backdate it either. That proves when the record existed, never whether the numbers are good. Don't trust us. Verify us.

    Signed chain
    -- days · head --
    Public key (Ed25519)
    --
    Verify it yourself
    --
    External anchor (Bitcoin)
    --
    Founder skin-in-the-game
    --

    // --

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