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Measurements

Prereg earnings narrative parameters

The measurement

Schema
canli.alphac-prereg-parameters.v1

Committed parameters

Hedge beta window sessions
252
Hold sessions
63
Minimum aligned observations
252
Minimum stressed observations
63
Momentum lookback session index
-252
Momentum lookback sessions
252
Momentum skip session index
-21
Momentum skip sessions
21

Note. Stated in the document as '12-1 momentum ... adjusted close at session -21 divided by adjusted close at session -252', a trailing 252-session SPY beta hedge, and void conditions below 252 aligned or 63 stressed observations.

Document

Path
docs/design/PREREG_EARNINGS_NARRATIVE_CHANGE.md
Public path
/research/prereg-earnings-narrative-change
Sha256
sha256:60486da41f1e2c88e62b6e56d436d780f645420ffaeb13364540d0c4040cc3b9

Marginal test weights

Candidate weight
0.100000
Current sleeves
4
Sleeve weight after
0.225000
Sleeve weight after pct
22.500000
Sleeve weight before
0.250000

Derivation. 4 equal sleeves at 25% each; the candidate is assigned 10% funded PRO RATA, so every existing sleeve keeps 90% of its weight: 0.25 x 0.90 = 0.225. This is arithmetic, not a measurement, and it is published with its inputs so it can be checked rather than accepted.

Measured book effect

Base sharpe
0.956304
Candidate 10pct sharpe
1.064387
Source
artifacts/probe/earnings_narrative_change/result.json

Note. Included so the weight the spec commits to and the weight the run used are visible on one page.

Parameters found verbatim in the document

  • -21
  • -252
  • 21
  • 252
  • 63

Why this exists. A pre-registration's function is that the spec is fixed before measurement so a reader can check the run against it. These parameters existed only as English sentences, so nothing could compare the executed run to the committed spec.

Check it yourself

Every figure above is read from /glassbox/prereg_earnings_narrative_parameters.json, the artifact the engine wrote.

All 89 measurements · The glass box · The research library