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Canli Capital

Research

Customer–supplier propagation — locked no-return relationship-source protocol

By , Canli Capital

Declared: 2026-08-16 before computing corpus prevalence, selecting the document sample, or extracting any customer name. Stage: official-source feasibility only. Market prices, returns, event outcomes, signs, horizons, and portfolio data are forbidden; zero return identities are spent.

Frozen identity boundary

  • Supplier universe: domestic common-stock issuers already present in the immutable 10-K manifest.
  • Relationship availability: no earlier than the SEC acceptance timestamp of the supplier's 10-K.
  • Relationship fact: the filing must state that one customer accounts for at least 10% of supplier revenue and explicitly identify that customer by name.
  • Anonymous labels (Customer A, one customer, government categories), private entities, and names that cannot be resolved historically to one public issuer are not tradable edges.
  • A later return protocol, if authorized, must use a separately timestamped customer event and next-eligible-session supplier entry. This source audit does not choose the event, sign, or horizon.

Frozen corpus and prefilter

Use the existing hash-addressed SEC 10-K manifest and local primary-document cache. Restrict filing dates to 2016-01-01 through 2025-12-31. Every manifest identity must map deterministically to data/raw/sec_10k_narrative/documents/{CIK}_{accession}.html.gz.

A document is a concentration candidate only when its raw filing contains customer within 400 characters of a numeric percentage from 10% through 100%, the equivalent percent form, or ten percent, after lower-casing and collapsing whitespace. This intentionally broad prefilter measures recall-oriented source prevalence; it does not establish a named relationship.

From each calendar year, rank candidates by SHA-256 of customer_supplier|CIK|accession and retain the first 30. The resulting at-most-300-row sample is immutable. No failed or difficult document is replaced.

Frozen extraction and gates

Convert sampled filings with parser sec-filing-sections-v2. Preserve document hash and every ±500-character window around a qualifying concentration marker. A strict name candidate must:

  1. occur in the same window as both customer language and a ≥10% concentration marker;
  2. be a proper-name phrase adjacent to accounted for, represented, sales to, or revenue from;
  3. exclude anonymous counts/labels, generic customer categories, governments, and pronouns; and
  4. be preserved as extracted rather than silently fuzzy-matched.

This v1 audit passes to a separately declared historical-entity-resolution audit only if all gates pass:

  • at least 99% of in-period manifest documents exist and decompress successfully;
  • at least 500 concentration candidates exist, with at least 25 in every calendar year;
  • all ten years contribute exactly 30 rows to the deterministic sample;
  • at least 50% of sampled documents yield one or more strict name candidates; and
  • no sampled row lacks CIK, accession, acceptance timestamp, source URL, or document hash.

Thresholds and extraction rules are not altered after aggregate results are observed. A pass does not authorize prices or returns. Failure is DATA_GATED. Even after a pass, historical public-issuer resolution, relationship expiry, amendments, shared analyst coverage, event definition, delistings, costs, capacity, neutralization, walk-forward design, PBO, DSR, and portfolio correlation remain mandatory independent gates.

Machine outputs

  • artifacts/feasibility/customer_supplier_propagation/candidate_manifest.parquet
  • artifacts/feasibility/customer_supplier_propagation/document_sample.parquet
  • artifacts/feasibility/customer_supplier_propagation/result.json

Claim boundary

This protocol can establish only whether public 10-K text is sufficiently prevalent and explicit to justify a historical entity-resolution audit. It cannot establish an investable graph or any return, Sharpe, drawdown, correlation, capacity, or sleeve-admission claim.

Locked result

The exhaustive source pass covered 36,424 manifest filings from 2016–2025. Primary documents were present and decompressible for 36,243 rows (99.503%), passing the 99% lineage gate. The broad prefilter retained 29,220 filings, every year contributed well above 25 candidates, and the frozen sample contains exactly 30 documents in each of ten years.

The relationship-definition gate failed. Only 106 of 300 sampled documents produced one or more machine name candidates (35.333%, versus the locked 50% minimum). Post-result inspection also found that the v1 syntactic candidates include geographies, customer categories, and fragments in addition to genuine legal names. The output is therefore not a production relationship graph and must not be silently entity-resolved. The extraction rule is not tuned after observing this result.

Decision: DATA_GATED. A separately declared v2 would require frozen human labels and a precision/recall gate before historical entity resolution. Zero market records, prices, returns, signs, horizons, or portfolio statistics were opened; zero return identities were spent.

Machine-readable result: artifacts/feasibility/customer_supplier_propagation/result.json.