Crypto defensive factors: two positive summaries without admission evidence

By Arhan Canli, Canli Capital

Short title: Crypto defensive factors: complete trial lineage
Author: Arhan Canli, Founder and Quantitative Researcher, Canli Capital
Family key: crypto_defensive · System: ALPHAC / AlphaForge
Status: public research record; not peer reviewed; not an investment solicitation

Finding and boundary

Two immutable identities test 720-hour low-volatility and low-beta ranks. Their annualized Sharpe summaries are +0.6946 and +0.6295 over 1,247 observations. The economic prior is that leverage constraints and preference for lottery-like assets can leave defensive assets underpriced; the canonical betting-against-beta evidence is Frazzini and Pedersen (Journal of Financial Economics). That prior does not validate a crypto implementation.

Both rows are positive, but only immutable summary moments are bound family-wide. Neither row has an identity-matched public curve, DSR, maximum drawdown, capacity sweep, crisis correlation, or broker-reconciled forward record. A related low-volatility artifact is hashed in the machine packet, but it does not fill every identity-level section. Low volatility and low beta are one defensive family, not two sleeves, and may still load on liquidity and market crashes.

Decision: NOT ESTABLISHED / zero sleeves. Positive Sharpe summaries cannot bypass the current 228-trial deflation and execution gates. The public evidence is crypto_defensive_family.json and the global join is trial_packet_manifest.json. Research and implementation were authored and directed by Arhan Canli; no Alpaca return is attributed to this family.