The uncomfortable property.
Every cost this engine does not charge makes results look BETTER, with one exception whose sign is genuinely unknown. A cost model's gaps are therefore not noise around the truth. They are a bias with a known direction, and the honest reading of any figure on this site is that it is an upper bound on what the same strategy would have returned net of everything.
The ledger
7 charged, 1 charged but unverifiable,
1 charged as the wrong kind of quantity, 11 not charged at all.
11 of these push the result in the same direction.
At trade time
While holding
Corporate and jurisdictional
The one that is not a number problem
Latency is charged as the wrong kind of thing
The model deducts a flat 2 basis points for the gap between deciding and filling.
Measured median submit-to-fill across the equity sleeves is about 5.5 hours:
orders are submitted after the close and fill at the next open. An overnight gap is not a
spread. It is unhedged exposure to whatever happens overnight, and its cost is a
distribution with a fat tail rather than a constant.
This matters more than a mis-set parameter, because a wrong number shrinks with care and
a wrong kind does not. The
Execution Reality Lab shows the general form of this
independently: a cost scales with its parameter and is negative on every series, while a
re-timing does neither. Latency here is the second kind being charged as the first.
No cost parameter moves on this evidence. The schema should.
How to read any return on this site
- Every published figure is pre-tax and before any account-level fee.
- The omissions are one-directional. Treat any return here as an upper
bound on what the same strategy would have returned net of everything.
- The one component whose sign is genuinely unknown is latency, and it is the one being
modelled incorrectly.
- The only cost component ever checked against a live fill is crypto commission, which
matched the model exactly. Everything else is unverifiable from what the
brokers currently record, which is a gap in the recording, not a claim that the model is right.
Sources:
cost_coverage.json and
cost_model_realism.json, the
audit that measured the live fills. Related:
Execution Reality Lab,
methodology.