Macro surprise

Point-in-time macro releases traded as cross-sectional spreads, and the vintage discipline that makes the surprise real rather than hindsight.

• AlphaVintage missing-release correction protocolThe point-in-time RTDSM lake has no October 2025 headline or core CPI level.
• Economic-Trend Sleeve, macro-fundamental trend (campaign): a killed candidateTrend on first-release macro vintages (payrolls, CPI, IP, credit spreads, yields, dollar) driving the 17-ETF basket by a pre-committed economic sign matrix.
• Prediction-Market Odds as Macro Signal (probe): a killed candidateDo Polymarket-implied probabilities lead tradable markets? No — they lag them.