canli-mcp / After a 10% fall
What usually happens after the stock market falls 10%?
Since 1950 the S&P 500 has fallen 10% or more within a month 41 separate times. A year later the median gain was 15.5%, against 10.7% from all days, and the worst case was -36.2%. That is a record, not a forecast or advice. canli-mcp's what_happened_next lists every case, free with no key.
Price: $0 to run. Updated 2026-11-02. Free and MIT-licensed, with no account and no API key. Or run claude mcp add canli -- npx -y canli-mcp in Claude Code.
Ask it
What has usually happened after the S&P 500 fell 10% in a month?
The agent finds the tool through canli-mcp's find_tool and runs it through run_tool. This is the call:
{
"name": "what_happened_next",
"arguments": {
"condition": "fell",
"percent": 10,
"days": 21
}
}What came back
Recorded from canli-mcp 0.16.0 on 2026-11-02, with no API key set. The model read 3,411 characters.
| trading days ahead | times | median percent | share higher percent | worst percent | best percent | all days median percent | all days share higher percent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | 41 | 0 | 51 | -14.7 | 18.6 | 1.1 | 62 |
| 63 | 41 | 5.2 | 73 | -25.6 | 13.9 | 2.7 | 67 |
| 126 | 41 | 9.3 | 68 | -28.4 | 29.9 | 5.2 | 71 |
| 252 | 41 | 15.5 | 73 | -36.2 | 41.3 | 10.7 | 75 |
The result what_happened_next sent back, in full form
{
"ref": "r1",
"symbol": "^GSPC",
"what": "a fall of 10% or more within 21 trading days",
"from": "1950-01-03",
"to": "2026-10-30",
"episodes_found": 41,
"true_today": false,
"summary": {
"columns": [
"trading_days_ahead",
"times",
"median_percent",
"share_higher_percent",
"worst_percent",
"best_percent",
"…"
],
"rows": [
[
21,
41,
0,
51,
-14.7,
18.6,
"…"
],
[
63,
41,
5.2,
73,
-25.6,
13.9,
"…"
],
[
126,
41,
9.3,
68,
-28.4,
29.9,
"…"
],
[
252,
41,
15.5,
73,
-36.2,
41.3,
"…"
]
]
},
"episodes": {
"columns": [
"date",
"close",
"after_21_days_percent",
"after_63_days_percent",
"after_126_days_percent",
"after_252_days_percent"
],
"rows": [
[
"2025-03-13",
5521.52,
-2.9,
9.5,
19.2,
21.3
],
[
"2022-09-22",
3757.99,
-0.1,
3.2,
5.7,
15.4
],
[
"2022-04-29",
4131.93,
0,
-0.3,
-5.6,
-0.3
],
[
"2020-02-27",
2978.76,
-14.7,
1.7,
16.8,
27.9
],
[
"2018-12-19",
2506.96,
5,
11.7,
17.7,
27.9
],
[
"2018-02-08",
2581,
7.8,
5.5,
10.6,
5
],
"…"
]
},
"meaning": "Each episode is the first day of a fall of 10% or more within 21 trading days, with later days inside 63 trading days not counted again. The…",
"source": "Yahoo Finance chart data (no key)",
"limits": [
"A record of what followed, not a forecast and not advice. The next time can be unlike all of these.",
"41 episodes is a small number, and they are not independent: long stretches of one market's history carry the same few regimes.",
"These prices are adjusted for splits and dividends where the source adjusts them; an index's own price leaves dividends out. No costs or tax…",
"A single stock's record only exists because it survived; companies that did not are not in it."
]
}Prices, filings and statistics are as the sources published them on that day; run the call again for today's. Nothing here is investment advice.
The tools behind the answer
| Tool | Pack | What it does |
|---|---|---|
what_happened_next | markets | Every past time a market or stock fell, rose or sat this far below its high: each case, what followed a month, a quarter and a year later, the worst and best, and how that compares with an ordinary day. A record, not a forecast or advice. |
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