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Measurements

Cftc release reachability

The measurement

Author
Arhan Canli
Content hash
sha256:e35a0a19e19298bd194fb57d509ae423a7c5956460325d06f4fc3fa028d5d919
Decision
UNREACHABLE_AS_PREREGISTERED
Family
cftc_hedging_pressure
Hypotheses spent
0
Return data opened
no
Schema
canli.alphac-cftc-release-reachability.v1
Verdict
HISTORICAL_RELEASE_LINEAGE_CEILING_BELOW_GATE

Lineage

Classification
RETIRED_KILLED
Events sha256
sha256:8dcc786360279c0448c9600f4d7e7bf4f120a64fa3bbcd4b525ab6d44b7843a8
Feasibility sha256
sha256:7d4eb8d0c4993a892dcff924247d2da78e94b7deec521a2289de0882930e7299
Lineage registry sha256
sha256:568f184a42fa815725b7e8fcb48ec701564f1ed9cfd6d991fcc5ea5d379d3ecf

Aliases

  • cot_positioning

Evidence

  • public_kill_ledger#screen_stage_kills:cot_positioning

Measured ceiling

Available window cutoff
2025-07-11
Date weighted exact lineage ceiling
0.054131
Dates in best case available window
57
First report date
2006-06-13
Last report date
2026-08-11
Row weighted exact lineage ceiling
0.083685
Rows in best case available window
15371
Shortfall to required rate
0.866315
Total distinct report dates
1053
Total rows
183676

Ceiling assumption. Best case: every observation in the most recent 13 months can be matched to an exact release timestamp; no older observation can.

Official record constraint

Available release history months
13
Historical release date list exists
no
Holiday and disruption exceptions exist
yes
Normal release rule
Friday 15:30 US Eastern for prior Tuesday data
Retrieved on
2026-08-22

Protocol gate

Name
exact_historical_release_lineage
Observed verified rate
0
Required rate
0.950000

Work authorization

Build fixed contract mapping now
no

Permitted future branch. Only a preregistered identity redesign with a conservative availability rule and a documented distinction from the killed COT campaign. It would be a new trial family, not completion of this protocol.

Reason. A contract map cannot rescue an independently unreachable release-lineage gate, and the mechanism is already classified as a retired killed lineage.

Check it yourself

Every figure above is read from /glassbox/cftc_release_reachability.json, the artifact the engine wrote.

All 89 measurements · The glass box · The research library