The measurement
- Author
- Arhan Canli
- Content hash
- sha256:7be8b79fb27ddc7f959abc31c69fb78f04003ad6e81f2d16d59e701b9ab2dce0
- Decision
- PRESERVE_LOSS_NO_PRICE_JUMP_GUARD_NO_WEIGHT_CHANGE
- Instrument
- BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT
- Schema
- canli.alphac-crypto-lab-carry-crash-incident.v1
- Verdict
- GENUINE_MARKET_CRASH_NOT_CONTRACT_IDENTITY_DEFECT
Execution sequence
Long close
- Client order id
- rb-1785369600000-BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT-close
- Fee quote
- 0.008852
- Instrument id
- BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT
- Price
- 0.155300
- Qty
- 114
- Side
- sell
- Ts
- 1785369600000
Long entry
- Client order id
- rb-1783267200000-BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT
- Fee quote
- 0.920574
- Instrument id
- BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT
- Price
- 16.150421
- Qty
- 114
- Side
- buy
- Ts
- 1783267200000
Short reversal
- Client order id
- rb-1785369600000-BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT-open
- Fee quote
- 0.424513
- Instrument id
- BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT
- Price
- 0.155300
- Qty
- 5467
- Side
- sell
- Ts
- 1785369600000
Forward record relation
- Classification
- PRE_FLAGSHIP_WINDOW_DOES_NOT_EXPLAIN_CURRENT_FORWARD_LOSS
- Flagship forward record starts
- 2026-08-07
- Lab long closed utc
- 2026-07-30T00:00:00Z
Funding regime while held
- First nonnegative settlement
- 2026-07-08T06:00:00Z
- Maximum rate
- 7.515e-4
- Mean rate
- -0.001706
- Minimum rate
- -0.020000
- Negative observations
- 68
- Nonnegative observations
- 153
- Observations
- 221
Interpretation. The carry signal entered long during negative funding; funding later changed sign and the scheduled rebalance closed the long and opened a short.
| Supports | Url |
|---|---|
| independent dated prices during the July 2026 collapse | ChartExchange market data page |
| contemporaneous venue response to LABUSDT market risk | Phemex exchange announcement |
Long episode
- Absolute gross price loss quote rounded 2dp
- 1823.440000
- Absolute net price loss quote rounded 2dp
- 1824.370000
- Close price
- 0.155300
- Entry and close fees quote
- 0.929426
- Entry price
- 16.150421
- Gross price pnl quote
- -1823.443800
- Gross price pnl quote rounded 2dp
- -1823.440000
- Net price pnl after entry and close fees quote
- -1824.373226
- Net price pnl after entry and close fees quote rounded 2dp
- -1824.370000
- Price return
- -0.990384
- Quantity
- 114
Observability correction
Historical gap. Position snapshots retained quantity and average entry but not the exact cycle mark or instrument-level unrealized PnL. Historical attribution cannot be fabricated from aggregate equity.
Prospective fix. Future paper cycles persist exact order-book mark, mark source, market value, and unrealized PnL through an additive nullable schema migration.
Source bindings
Paper execution database
- Path
- var/trading_crypto_perp.sqlite
- Sha256
- 321956fd7d723065a37bbeec5aa843c4632b7e6fe0964a8871014d655ec204d7
Point in time funding
- Path
- data/lake/funding/instrument_id=BINANCE:PERP:LABUSDT/year=2026/data.parquet
- Sha256
- 2befc7e961640facca7b9b742585dd963684ef1d2eedf0b41a962f3fcf06ff0f
Subsequent activity
- Fills after sealed episode
- 12
- First utc
- 2026-09-10T00:00:00Z
- Last utc
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00Z
Note. Fills after the short reversal belong to ordinary later rebalances and are not part of the sealed episode; they are counted here so the record says the instrument kept trading rather than pretending the story ended.
Check it yourself
Every figure above is read from /glassbox/crypto_lab_carry_crash_incident.json, the
artifact the engine wrote.