Forward evidence contract

Rules

Estimate eligible. At least 252 finite non-constant returns from consecutive published daily marks, plus every provenance gate passing.

Target observed. The annualized point Sharpe is at least 1.5; this is not statistical establishment.

Target statistically established. At least 756 returns and PSR probability that the true annualized Sharpe exceeds 1.5 of at least 0.95, plus every provenance gate passing.

Drawdown. Realized live maximum drawdown is always published. A simulation may be published only with p95, exact configuration mapping and explicit failed establishment dimensions. The older 14-sleeve daily study applies a 10% book-level volatility target and is not an estimate of the current four-sleeve fixed-weight composite. The zero-drift current-composition study maps the exact weights and strategic overlay and may be compared with the 11% objective, but its post-2022 common window and omitted constituent instrument, execution-gap and ladder state mean neither expected value nor p95 establishes live expected drawdown.

Diversification. The exact current-composition research study must publish average sleeve correlation, its synchronized block-bootstrap upper 95% bound, the maximum ordinary pair and its upper bound, the stressed design value, effective sleeve and diversification-ratio diagnostics, and fixed-to-cash marginal historical book-Sharpe deltas. Every threshold comes from the sleeve-admission contract. A positive average correlation fails the non-positive point gate even when described as near zero. Research-window evidence never establishes live-forward diversification and never retroactively adjudicates an existing sleeve.

Configuration change. A live-configuration fingerprint change starts a new evidence epoch; pre-change and post-change returns cannot be silently pooled.

Missing marks. Missing calendar dates are not filled with zero returns. The continuity audit is a separate mandatory gate.

Public chain. The current paper state must exactly equal the canonical payload disclosed in the signed transparency-chain head. Link continuity, every Ed25519 signature, every disclosed payload hash, and the prospective disclosure boundary must validate. Historical opaque commitments remain explicitly incomplete and are not reconstructed.

Crypto position attribution. The latest locally simulated crypto paper cycle must be non-empty, persist complete order-book marks for every open position, independently reproduce each stored market value and unrealized P&L from quantity, mark, and entry price, and reconcile cash plus marked market value to account equity within the frozen tolerances. A flat cycle cannot vacuously certify the mark path. Entry-price fallback marks, non-finite values, non-positive prices, missing prospective fields, position-count mismatch, stale cycle coverage, position-arithmetic residual, or equity-reconciliation residual fail provenance closed. Historical rows are never backfilled.

Crypto position attribution rollout. A hash-bound deployment receipt and the frozen first later non-empty natural cycle must prove the mark-aware runtime operated on the sole-writer Frankfurt paper host without a forced cycle. Before deployment, missing receipt evidence is published deterministically and fails closed without querying Frankfurt. A successful first-cycle receipt is immutable for that exact deployment receipt.