The measurement
- Schema
- canli.alphac-forward-evidence-maturity.v1
- Curve basis
- cost_charged_curve
- Generated at
- 2026-10-11T16:25:39.973710+00:00
- Author
- Arhan Canli
- Capital kind
- PAPER_ONLY
- Status
- FAIL_CLOSED_PROVENANCE
- Content hash
- sha256:744968de0c8a3226a102bfbce213a4dae38bd8a98babed9de7b1f402b472a117
Cost realism
- Contract
- config/cost_realism_contract.json
- Curve basis
- cost_charged_curve
- Status
- CHARGED_BY_MODEL_ON_ALPACA_SLEEVES
Sleeves
Alphamax
4 further fields. Read them in the artifact.
Managed futures
4 further fields. Read them in the artifact.
Alphavintage
4 further fields. Read them in the artifact.
Alphaforge
4 further fields. Read them in the artifact.
Provenance gate
- Passes
- no
- Transparency chain validation error
- Not reported
- Transparency state validation error
- Not reported
Checks
- Paper capital only
- yes
- Live config matches declaration
- yes
- Live config matches frozen evidence epoch
- yes
- Continuity schema
- yes
- Continuity content hash
- yes
- Continuity passes
- no
- Continuity covers last mark
- yes
- Broker schema
- yes
- Broker content hash
- yes
- Broker passes
- yes
- Broker accounts are unique
- yes
- Broker reconciliation fresh
- yes
- Broker reconciliation covers state
- yes
- Drawdown model schema
- yes
- Current book drawdown schema
- yes
- Current book drawdown content hash
- yes
- Current book drawdown binds live configuration
- yes
- Current book drawdown remains non establishing
- yes
- Current book diversification schema
- yes
- Current book diversification content hash
- yes
- Current book diversification binds live configuration
- yes
- Current book diversification binds drawdown bytes
- yes
- Current book diversification remains non establishing
- yes
- Drawdown evidence schema
- yes
- Drawdown evidence content hash
- yes
- Drawdown evidence integrity passes
- yes
- Drawdown evidence binds model bytes
- yes
- Drawdown evidence binds current book model bytes
- yes
- Drawdown evidence binds contract bytes
- yes
- Drawdown live non equivalence disclosed
- yes
- Drawdown evidence matches current book model
- yes
- Transparency schema
- yes
- Transparency payload schema
- yes
- Transparency chain and signatures valid
- yes
- Transparency head payload matches state
- yes
- Crypto position attribution schema
- yes
- Crypto position attribution content hash
- yes
- Crypto position attribution complete
- yes
- Crypto position attribution reconciles equity
- yes
- Crypto position attribution reproduces position arithmetic
- yes
- Crypto position attribution covers last mark
- no
- Crypto position attribution rollout schema
- yes
- Crypto position attribution rollout content hash
- yes
- Crypto position attribution rollout verified
- yes
Failed checks
- continuity_passes
- crypto_position_attribution_covers_last_mark
Record
- First mark
- 2026-09-24
- Last mark
- 2026-10-11
- Curve points
- 14
- Daily return observations
- 13
- Cumulative return
- 0.003228
- Return frequency
- CONSECUTIVE_PUBLISHED_UTC_DAILY_MARKS_NO_SYNTHETIC_FILL
- Configuration fingerprint
- sha256:dd8dfa131b07c89528ebb1aa985c972155da9a4255d198861b7c5e842beff41b
Evidence epoch
- Starts on
- 2026-09-24
Declared change. v3 record WITHDRAWN and v4 re-baseline, with AlphaForge SUSPENDED from the book: the forward record restarts on the v4 date as a THREE-sleeve book (AlphaMax, AlphaTrend, AlphaVintage) at equal thirds, reading corrected corporate actions (split corrections at the lake reader; weekly ingest scheduled and monitored). AlphaForge keeps paper-trading on Frankfurt off the record while it is repaired and
Rule. the latest live_change_contract change_log entry with contaminates_forward_record true starts the current epoch; prior returns are published separately and never pooled
Whole record
- First mark
- 2026-09-24
- Last mark
- 2026-10-11
- Curve points
- 14
- Daily return observations
- 13
- Cumulative return
- 0.003228
Sharpe evidence
- Daily return observations
- 13
- Estimate minimum
- 252
- Establishment minimum
- 756
- Observations to estimate
- 239
- Observations to establishment
- 743
- Annualization days
- 365
- Target
- 2
- Target source
- config/owner_goals.json
- Target exceedance probability min
- 0.950000
- Annualized point estimate
- Not reported
- Probability true sharpe exceeds target
- Not reported
- Target observed
- no
- Target statistically established
- no
- Status
- FAIL_CLOSED_PROVENANCE
- Underlying status
- IMMATURE_RECORD_TOO_SHORT
| Target | In force from | Superseded on | Source | Record status when superseded | Daily returns when superseded | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.500000 | 2026-08-21 | 2026-09-14 | config/sleeve_admission_contract.json objective.honest_forward_sharpe_target (contract v6, carried into v7) | IMMATURE_RECORD_TOO_SHORT | 36 | No point estimate was ever published against this target; the record was 36 returns short of the 252 the estimate needs when the target moved. |
| 2 | 2026-09-14 | Not reported | config/owner_goals.json (owner goals recorded 2026-09-12, confirmed 2026-09-14) | Not reported | Not reported | The owner's combined-portfolio goal, net of costs. A target change is an evaluation change, not a trading change: it restarts no forward-evidence epoch and pools nothing. |
Drawdown evidence
- Realized live max drawdown
- 0.004360
- Realized status
- DESCRIPTIVE_TO_DATE_NOT_EXPECTED_MAX_DRAWDOWN
- Realized max drawdown bound
- 0.100000
- Realized max drawdown bound statistic
- REALIZED_MAXIMUM_DRAWDOWN
- Realized max drawdown bound source
- config/owner_goals.json
- Realized within owner bound
- yes
- Expected max drawdown target
- 0.110000
- Study production labelled expected max drawdown
- 0.102512
- Study production labelled p95 max drawdown
- 0.187632
- Current composition conservative expected max drawdown
- 0.089885
- Current composition conservative p95 max drawdown
- 0.158555
- Current composition expected within objective
- yes
- Current composition p95 within objective
- no
- Study status
- CURRENT_COMPOSITION_EXPECTED_WITHIN_OBJECTIVE_LIVE_NOT_ESTABLISHED
- Production equivalence passes
- no
Realized within owner bound note. Descriptive: realized drawdown inside the bound to date establishes nothing about future drawdown; the mechanism that acts on the bound is config/drawdown_control_contract.json.
Current composition study status. CURRENT_COMPOSITION_EXPECTED_WITHIN_OBJECTIVE_HISTORICAL_TAIL_COVERAGE_INCOMPLETE
Current composition failed establishment dimensions
- COMMON_WINDOW_BEGINS_AFTER_COVID_AND_2022
- ABSENT_CRISIS_CANNOT_APPEAR_IN_BLOCK_BOOTSTRAP
- REGIME_MODEL_HAS_NO_STRESS_VOLATILITY_MULTIPLIER
- CONSTITUENT_INSTRUMENT_AND_LADDER_STATE_NOT_REPLAYED
- EXECUTION_GAPS_AND_LIQUIDITY_FEEDBACK_NOT_MODELED
Production equivalence failed checks
- sleeve_count_matches_live_book
- book_level_volatility_target_matches_live_composite
- book_level_risk_overlay_matches_live_composite
- single_daily_timebase_matches_mixed_live_timebases
- covariance_halflife_has_one_duration_across_live_sleeves
- production_shrinkage_is_inside_simulation
Objective status. MODELED_CURRENT_COMPOSITION_WITHIN_OBJECTIVE_LIVE_EXPECTED_MAX_DRAWDOWN_NOT_ESTABLISHED
Diversification evidence
- Study status
- CURRENT_COMPOSITION_DIVERSIFICATION_OBJECTIVE_GAP_RESEARCH_ONLY
- Current sleeves
- 3
- Target total sleeves
- 14
- Average pairwise correlation
- 0.034467
- Average pairwise correlation objective
- -0.051161
- Active v7 has no global average correlation point gate
- yes
- Active v7 candidate average correlation gate
- 0
- Historical v6 global average correlation point gate
- 0
- Average pairwise upper 95
- 0.075399
- Average pairwise upper 95 gate
- 0.100000
- Maximum pairwise correlation
- 0.209752
- Maximum pairwise upper 95
- 0.302519
- Stressed pairwise design value not observed
- 0.500000
- Diversification ratio sleeves only
- 1.559565
- Effective independent sleeves participation ratio
- 2.903590
- Passes all active v7 risk comparisons
- yes
- Live forward diversification established
- no
Marginal book sharpe research diagnostics
Alphavintage live
3 further fields. Read them in the artifact.
K30 dn 63
3 further fields. Read them in the artifact.
Managed futures
3 further fields. Read them in the artifact.
Checks
- Average pairwise upper 95
- yes
- Minimum correlation observations
- yes
- Ordinary pairwise point
- yes
- Ordinary pairwise upper 95
- yes
- Stressed pairwise design
- yes
Failed establishment dimensions
- RESEARCH_CURVES_END_BEFORE_BROKER_RECONCILED_FORWARD_RECORD
- RETURN_DATA_WERE_KNOWN_BEFORE_PROTOCOL
- NO_HUMAN_INDEPENDENT_REPLICATION
- NO_CRISIS_COMPLETE_FORWARD_CORRELATION_WINDOW
Objective status. CURRENT_COMPOSITION_AVERAGE_CORRELATION_OBJECTIVE_GAP_LIVE_FORWARD_NOT_ESTABLISHED
Source bindings
Contract
- Path
- config/forward_evidence_contract.json
- Sha256
- 6b1df988f78bd09567a3b384ed52e5de74805a659f5444b11d0acacab0d5a8d3
Cost contract
- Path
- config/cost_realism_contract.json
- Sha256
- 387305dd4aaeb03548d4c3cf3e6bf4406d8e62dfae2134a1564afc14b418d74e
Paper state
- Path
- data/paper/state.json
- Sha256
- 8b02bb612be8c010a0cdd2765b918d01d653fa3316c71193a4696d996e3dc85a
Record continuity
- Path
- artifacts/engineering/record_continuity.json
- Sha256
- 53a2950b4ecc6d8919b38a9595efe55f864b76a9bd412429a2ccd021f84b9345
Broker reconciliation
- Path
- artifacts/engineering/alpaca_broker_reconciliation.json
- Sha256
- 8da73de4cff2f896dcc6d2a364e14da4f1da16c25b60e793327a86e273c7ab8f
Drawdown model
- Path
- artifacts/analysis/drawdown_live_estimator/result.json
- Sha256
- 9671ed7551aab242dc3529510cf9105201835096f36bb971153c132081754324
Current book drawdown
- Path
- artifacts/analysis/current_book_drawdown/result.json
- Sha256
- b9748f2dd7163db7a32236b4c173ea32c57172d67782cd307688c0a549ebaedc
Current book diversification
- Path
- artifacts/analysis/current_book_diversification/result.json
- Sha256
- 804fdd5c20dd86de0c44377cc22234076314575445ed096bb845973d0f03473c
Drawdown evidence
- Path
- artifacts/engineering/forward_drawdown_evidence.json
- Sha256
- 49e13d9d67534816368b0cc41c7e6d5548b29cf1b78010d921d1f703a99a8754
Methodology paper
- Path
- docs/research/FORWARD_SHARPE_EVIDENCE_STANDARD.md
- Sha256
- f16bff68f829309319c3671de4187f6a6ba8f83b4eaa65f3ffb705b4f4fa9325
Transparency chain
- Path
- meridian/public/glassbox/transparency_log.json
- Sha256
- 1cd18993a473a6a5f5f25855e2a063d7052694d4408bbbf5a8eab5fa6a2570be
Crypto position attribution
- Path
- artifacts/engineering/crypto_position_attribution.json
- Sha256
- 4ae907a0213b75a83be19c880da8cded37a9d1904a087d84b95673b008c99f90
Crypto position attribution rollout
- Path
- artifacts/engineering/crypto_position_attribution_rollout_verification.json
- Sha256
- eadab7ba40dd86c2880ac913667a3fd32b69317a33b1338cd1475aeafd4e4863
Check it yourself
Every figure above is read from /glassbox/forward_evidence_maturity.json, the
artifact the engine wrote.