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Canli Capital

Measurements

Merger announcement confirmatory design

Merger announcement confirmatory design is one of 89 measurements this engine publishes in full. It is regenerated from a real run rather than transcribed, and it is shown here with its own claim boundary so the number and its limits arrive together.

The measurement

Candidate status
identity-redesign-required
Content hash
sha256:e2d294361c96994931849cef2e44faa464e3f2ab6a9ba1e05e9c4d6742f82b74
Corpus acquired
no
Corpus frozen
no
Decision
AUTHOR_APPROVAL_REQUIRED
Declared on
2026-08-26
Execution authorized
no
Exploratory result preserved as failed
yes
Family
merger_arbitrage
Governance decision
AUTHOR_APPROVAL_REQUIRED
Independent labels completed
0
Periods disjoint
yes
Project owner
Arhan Canli
Protocol frozen
yes
Return data opened
no
Return hypotheses spent
0
Schema
canli.alphac-merger-announcement-confirmatory-design.v1
Stage
PROSPECTIVE_PRE_CORPUS_PRE_LABEL_PRE_RETURN_IDENTITY_REDESIGN
Technical authorship approved
no
Technical decision
PASS_PROSPECTIVE_NO_RETURN_CONFIRMATORY_DESIGN

Activation

Approval recorded
no
Corpus acquisition requires author approval
yes
Return preregistration is separate
yes
Return preregistration requires both strata to pass
yes

Authorship disclosure. AI-assisted technical draft prepared under the project owner's direction; Arhan Canli has not yet reviewed or approved the exact design.

Confidence gates per stratum

Acceptance timestamp accuracy

Minimum successes at target denominator
188
One sided exact lower 95 threshold
0.900000
Point threshold
0.900000
Target denominator
200

Announcement coverage

Minimum successes at target denominator
161
One sided exact lower 95 threshold
0.750000
Point threshold
0.800000
Target denominator
200

Outcome marker coverage

Minimum successes at target denominator
142
One sided exact lower 95 threshold
0.650000
Point threshold
0.700000
Target denominator
200

Same transaction link accuracy

Minimum successes at target denominator
196
One sided exact lower 95 threshold
0.950000
Point threshold
0.950000
Target denominator
200

Confirmation period

End
2015-12-31
Start
2006-01-01

Exploration period

End
2025-12-31
Start
2016-01-01

Lineage gate

Required rate
1

Required fields

  • cik
  • accession
  • form
  • acceptance_timestamp
  • primary_document
  • archive_url
  • document_sha256

Resolver

Conflict policy
UNRESOLVED_CONFLICT
Later confirmation may backdate
no
Lookback calendar days
365
Selection rule
EARLIEST_QUALIFYING_SEC_ACCEPTANCE_TIMESTAMP

Candidate sources

  • TARGET_8K_ITEM_1_01_7_01_OR_8_01_WITH_QUALIFYING_EXHIBIT
  • TARGET_PREM14A_OR_DEFA14A_WITH_PARTIES_AND_CASH_TERMS
  • BIDDER_SC_TO_T_LINKED_BY_SUBJECT_COMPANY_CIK

Qualifying fields

  • target_cik
  • one_named_counterparty
  • one_cash_consideration
  • binding_agreement_or_commenced_offer_language

States

  • RESOLVED_CASH_MERGER
  • RESOLVED_CASH_TENDER
  • UNRESOLVED_NO_QUALIFYING_SOURCE
  • UNRESOLVED_CONFLICT
  • OUT_OF_SCOPE_NON_CASH_OR_COMPLEX_CONSIDERATION

Review boundary

All selected anchors labeled
yes
Independent reviewer required
yes
No automated or ai labeling assistance
yes
Prediction blind packet required
yes
Prices and returns forbidden
yes
Raw confusion counts required
yes

Selection

Exploratory accessions excluded
1965
Insufficient cell policy
DATA_GATED_NO_CROSS_CELL_SUBSTITUTION
Namespace
alphac-merger-announcement-confirmation-v2
Rank expression
sha256(namespace + '|' + year + '|' + stratum + '|' + accession)
Rows per stratum
200
Rows per year stratum cell
20
Selection uses document text
no
Selection uses human labels
no
Selection uses machine prediction
no
Selection uses prices or returns
no
Selection uses realized deal outcome
no
Target rows
400

Years

  • 2006
  • 2007
  • 2008
  • 2009
  • 2010
  • 2011
  • 2012
  • 2013
  • 2014
  • 2015

Source bindings

Compact input receipt

Content hash
sha256:11e1d46af1ed039a3c00d6d15e7479baf5d5bc4872103d4a0b4b876cae09a768
Path
config/merger_announcement_confirmatory_design_inputs.json
Sha256
2db3e951a2dabcf1323bcb84805c1df741168fd63ad6907ab1e1fc489e31dc52

Exploratory result

Path
artifacts/feasibility/merger_arbitrage/result.json
Sha256
f28fbf54dfce33888c3d5e96e08d3c85549543105bd7fde68989f13bcc2827ea

Exploratory timeline

Path
artifacts/feasibility/merger_arbitrage/target_anchor_timeline.parquet
Sha256
c39467ad09778b25a42550a0130eb42769a29aeb77547b9ce2c4db5e2940e6f7

Protocol

Path
docs/design/FEASIBILITY_MERGER_ANNOUNCEMENT_IDENTITY_V2.md
Sha256
a49a4c019fabc4a5dad8f777c79988b6125832be65d4990083ed2da14484739b

Strata

Aggregate cannot rescue failed stratum
yes
Reported and gated separately
yes

Exploratory measurements

DEFM14A

5 further fields. Read them in the artifact.

SC 14D9

5 further fields. Read them in the artifact.

Values

  • DEFM14A
  • SC 14D9

Technical gates

Author technical approval recorded
no
Both strata preserved
yes
Confidence gates are predeclared
yes
Confirmation corpus unopened
yes
Confirmation period disjoint
yes
Exploratory failure preserved
yes
Market and return columns absent
yes
Resolver is deterministic and fail closed
yes
Return data unopened
yes
Return hypotheses unspent
yes
Selection is pre text pre label pre return
yes
Strata gated separately
yes

Check it yourself

Every figure above is read from /glassbox/merger_announcement_confirmatory_design.json, the artifact the engine wrote. Nothing on this page is typed by hand: the page is generated from that file, so a figure that moves in the artifact moves here and a figure that is not in the artifact cannot appear here at all.

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