Program status
Program status is one of 32 measurements this engine publishes in full. It is regenerated from a real run rather than transcribed, and it is shown here with its own claim boundary so the number and its limits arrive together.
The measurement
- Schema
- canli.alphac-program-status.v1
- Status
- ACTIVE_FORWARD_EVIDENCE_IMMATURE
Owner
- Name
- Arhan Canli
- Person public path
- /founder
Roles
- founder
- system architect
- researcher
- publication author
Objective
- Target total sleeves
- 14
- Minimum new sleeves
- 10
- Portfolio max drawdown target
- 0.110000
- Targets are admission evidence
- no
- Portfolio max drawdown statistic
- expected_maximum_drawdown
- Portfolio p95 max drawdown is gated
- no
- Portfolio p95 max drawdown must be published
- yes
- Average pairwise correlation objective
- -0.030000
- Honest forward sharpe target
- 1.500000
Portfolio sharpe target
- 2.250000
- 3
Average pairwise correlation objective note. An objective, not a gate. -0.03 is the average pairwise correlation at which fourteen sleeves of measured quality reach 2.5. Thresholds are gates and live in 'thresholds'; anything that is not enforced must not sit there wearing a gate's costume.
Superseded in sample sharpe target
- 2
- 2.500000
Superseded reason. Stated in-sample with no haircut named, and unreachable as a forward result: a verified forward 2.0 at measured per-sleeve quality needs an average pairwise correlation of -0.062 against a PSD floor of -0.077. Withdrawn 2026-08-21 and replaced with an honest FORWARD target of 1.5, which is inside the floor at every plausible quality.
Backtest to forward haircut
- Measured on this book
- in-sample equal-risk ~1.04 against an honest forward of 0.3-0.9
Range
- 1.500000
- 3
Note. The haircut IS the uncertainty. Until the forward record is long enough to speak, every in-sample figure should be read through it, and the range is this book's own published pair rather than a convention borrowed from elsewhere.
Implied in sample target
- At 1 5x haircut
- 2.250000
- At 2 0x haircut
- 3
- At 3 0x haircut
- 4.500000
What reaching it requires. Both halves, not either: an average pairwise correlation meaningfully BELOW zero, and per-sleeve quality above roughly 0.60. At today's measured 0.469 the forward target is reachable only at a correlation near -0.030 and only on the optimistic haircut.
Why this is not a retreat. The rarer thing was never the number. A forward Sharpe near 1.5 that is genuinely verifiable -- signed forward record, every killed candidate published in full, gates that provably bite, and the arithmetic showing where the gate falls short of the target printed on the same page as the target -- is harder to find than a 2.5 nobody can check.
Portfolio sharpe target unit. IN-SAMPLE, being the band that an honest forward 1.5 implies at the 1.5x and 2.0x ends of this book's own measured haircut. The headline target is honest_forward_sharpe_target.
Achievement
- Forward sharpe target
- 1.500000
- Forward sharpe status
- NOT_ESTABLISHED_RECORD_TOO_SHORT
- Expected max drawdown target
- 0.110000
- Expected max drawdown status
- RESEARCH_OBJECTIVE_NOT_REALIZED_LIMIT
- Target sleeves
- 14
- Current sleeves
- 4
- New sleeves admitted by atlas
- 0
- Overall
- TARGETS_NOT_YET_ACHIEVED
Forward record
- Capital kind
- PAPER_ONLY
- Go live date
- 2026-08-07
- State generated at
- 2026-08-22T14:25:40.615050+00:00
- Live days
- 15
- First mark
- 2026-08-07
- Last mark
- 2026-08-22
- Normalized starting equity
- 100000
- Normalized current equity
- 98551.890000
- Cumulative return
- -0.014481
- Curve points
- 14
- In sample sharpe
- 1.780000
- In sample label
- SIMULATION_NOT_EVIDENCE
Curve basis. Normalized composite of constituent paper curves plus the disclosed overlay; not a direct broker account balance.
Honest forward sharpe estimate. 0.3 to 0.9 (the +10% beta does NOT improve this — it adds bull upside + crash risk, not risk-adjusted quality; real chance of ~0 yr1)
Live config
- Fingerprint
- sha256:ec06c65b7f43ce76e3ab0aa21fa60b1b361e1b53a68cefc00f885636efbded3e
- Declared fingerprint
- sha256:ec06c65b7f43ce76e3ab0aa21fa60b1b361e1b53a68cefc00f885636efbded3e
- Matches declaration
- yes
- Declared in
- config/live_change_contract.json
What it covers. Every setting that decides how the live book trades: the BlendStrategy defaults that reach production because no call site overrides them; the overlay, drawdown ladder and per-name clip that the strategy reads off Settings; and the book's sleeve composition, weights and disclosed tilt. Derived from inspect.signature, Settings and the published state, never from a hand-maintained list.
Why. A record that cannot say which configuration produced it cannot be read as one experiment. This stamp is what lets a reader tell a continuous forward test from a curve that changed underneath itself.
Continuity
- As of
- 2026-08-22
- Days since go live
- 16
- Go live date
- 2026-08-07
- Max gap rate threshold
- 0.200000
- Passes
- yes
- Schema
- canli.alphac-record-continuity.v1
- Worst gap rate
- 0.187500
How a gap is classified. A weekend absence is LEGITIMATE for a sleeve that does not trade weekends and a REAL gap for one that trades around the clock. Classified per sleeve, because counting them the same way makes a closed market and a broken loop look identical.
Sleeves
4 further fields. Read them in the artifact.
Systemic gap days
- 2026-08-10
Systemic note. Days missing on EVERY sleeve are systemic — the tick did not run or did not mark — rather than a fault in any one sleeve.
Threshold basis. Declared, not fitted. A threshold derived from today's gap rate would pass whatever the gap rate happens to be, which is not a threshold.
What this does not measure. Whether a mark is CORRECT — only whether one exists. A sleeve marking the same equity every day would show a perfect continuity record and a frozen curve. That is the publish gate's job (check_published_state), not this one's.
Execution provenance
- Broker reconciliation claim
- BROKER_DERIVED_LOCAL_PUBLICATION_NOT_EXTERNALLY_ATTESTED
Summary. 3 sleeves use dedicated Alpaca paper accounts; AlphaForge uses the local AlphaForge PaperBroker against live exchange order books; ALPHAC is a derived composite and has no direct broker account.
Alpaca broker executed sleeves
- alphamax
- managed_futures
- alphavintage
All sleeves
Nested beyond what this page renders. Read it in the artifact.
Research governance
Trial accounting
- Distinct hypothesis identities
- 174
- Hypothesis identity budget
- 320
- Budget remaining
- 146
- Budget status
- PASS
- Research status
- ACTIVE
Atlas
- Families
- 40
- Cells
- 240
- New sleeves admitted
- 0
- Return hypotheses spent
- 0
Paper corpus
- Published markdown papers
- 84
- Trial packet coverage status
- INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED
- Complete trial packets
- 0
- Candidate mapped identities
- 109
- Verified family paper bindings
- 94
- Required trial packets
- 174
- Manifest public path
- /glassbox/trial_packet_manifest.json
- Manifest source sha256
- 5e06db6cf584a2f0f298d0a2484283775176cd9f6a007db2b648ffb3f69fc36d
| Research family key | Title | Public path | Authored by | Packet status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| alphamax_equity_momentum | AlphaMax equity momentum: signal, trial lineage, and evidence boundary | /research/alphamax-equity-momentum-lineage.md | Arhan Canli | INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED |
| crypto_carry | Crypto perpetual carry: trial lineage, capacity failure, and live evidence boundary | /research/crypto-carry-lineage.md | Arhan Canli | INCOMPLETE_BACKFILL_REQUIRED |
Source provenance
Paper state
- Path
- data/paper/state.json
- Sha256
- ba277ad4064ec8226944aa82d26588d0233b0dec80c2222a6dda0cf27df7128e
Admission contract
- Path
- config/sleeve_admission_contract.json
- Sha256
- 5f628a44ae73ed9c412b225ac9dc56c4e59c1bc0645e2ebde251501e938b9932
Trial policy
- Path
- config/trial_accounting.json
- Sha256
- 5633ef6f1b2120c0a45c6a0935e93fa6050fc4f5502fe1634d88864cc99f6454
Sleeve atlas
- Path
- artifacts/discovery/sleeve_atlas.json
- Sha256
- 71c17b8c518811caecb5a264eefd6c5a9ee62591aefe8046d2814ffbfb4d05e0
Check it yourself
Every figure above is read from /glassbox/program_status.json, the
artifact the engine wrote. Nothing on this page is typed by hand: the page is generated from that
file, so a figure that moves in the artifact moves here and a figure that is not in the artifact
cannot appear here at all.