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Canli Capital

Research

Petroleum inventory scarcity: one negative macro-commodity identity

By , Canli Capital

Short title: Petroleum inventory scarcity: trial lineage
Author: Arhan Canli, Founder and Quantitative Researcher, Canli Capital
Family key: energy_inventory · System: ALPHAC / AlphaForge
Status: public research record; not peer reviewed; not an investment solicitation

Finding and boundary

The hypothesis is that first-release petroleum inventory scarcity contains information about subsequent energy returns after seasonal normalization. One charged EIA identity produced annualized Sharpe -0.5893 across 2,669 observations, skew -1.5157, and kurtosis 30.2245. The result is negative and left-tailed.

Inventory theory links convenience yield and scarcity to commodity pricing; Gorton, Hayashi, and Rouwenhorst provide broad evidence on commodity inventories (Review of Financial Studies). That mechanism does not validate this release-timed implementation. It also overlaps commodity carry and macro growth exposure and therefore is not an automatic independent sleeve.

The related probe artifact is SHA-256 bound, but family-wide drawdown, current-union DSR, capacity, and broker-forward evidence are not established. Decision: FAIL / zero sleeves. Machine evidence is energy_inventory_family.json. Research and implementation were authored and directed by Arhan Canli; no live return is claimed.