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Commodities

5 published documents · Canli Capital research, by Arhan Canli

Inventory surprise, storage and weather: official point-in-time vintages, first-release capture, and what happens to a seasonal signal net of cost.

CFTC hedging pressure — no-return feasibility protocolThis stage audits only identifiers, dates, market labels and commodity classifications from the CFTC Disaggregated Futures Only dataset (72hh-3qpy).
Commodity / Cross-Asset Futures Carry (probe): a killed candidateCross-sectional carry on 38 real futures (long backwardation / short contango, front-vs-next slope), 2010-2016 — the only window the term-structure marks…
Cross-Asset Carry (campaign): a killed candidate5 constructions. The COMBINED cross-asset book is net-NEGATIVE (3 of 4 legs lose); the one positive leg (oil backwardation, +0.37) is a single-instrument…
EIA Petroleum Inventory Scarcity: a killed candidateOne pre-registered configuration on 782 accepted official EIA WPSR first-release Table 4 vintages, 2016-2026 OOS: commercial crude excluding SPR mapped to…
Natural-gas storage/weather residual — literature and claim boundaryWeekly working-gas inventory changes combine weather-driven demand, production, imports/exports, and operational flows.