The measurement
- Schema
- canli.alphac-sleeve-atlas.v2
- As of
- 2026-08-22
- Content hash
- sha256:bc16c98391c4ea367398bd26ff24c4754b432f1739a19b37f60f9b33fb01cc5b
Objective
- Source
- config/owner_goals.json
- Source schema
- canli.alphac-owner-goals.v1
- Recorded on
- 2026-09-12
- In force from
- 2026-09-14
- Honest forward sharpe target
- 2
- Honest forward sharpe comparison
- ABOVE
- Portfolio max drawdown target
- 0.100000
- Portfolio max drawdown comparison
- AT_MOST
- Portfolio max drawdown statistic
- REALIZED_MAXIMUM_DRAWDOWN_BOUND
- Expected max drawdown objective
- 0.110000
- Expected max drawdown objective statistic
- expected_maximum_drawdown
- Target total sleeves
- 14
- Target total sleeves comparison
- AT_LEAST
- Target sleeve count
- 14
- Average pairwise correlation objective
- -0.051161
- Targets are admission evidence
- no
- Current sleeves
- 4
- Minimum new sleeves
- 10
- Targets are promises
- no
Honest forward sharpe basis. Annualized (365-day convention) from consecutive published UTC daily paper marks, net of modeled costs, zero excess-return benchmark, evaluated by scripts/evaluate_forward_evidence_maturity.py under config/forward_evidence_contract.json (252 returns before an estimate, 756 and PSR >= 0.95 before establishment).
Portfolio max drawdown mechanism. config/drawdown_control_contract.json declares half gross at 5.5 percent below the high-water mark and flat at 11 percent, absorbing until an owner rearm. That ladder was measured against the superseded 11 percent objective and CANNOT enforce a 10 percent bound; a ladder consistent with this bound (flat at or below 10 percent) must be measured with scripts/analyze_drawdown_control.py and declared before activation. A brake bounds each episode up to a one-day overshoot and does not make losses impossible.
Portfolio max drawdown mechanism status. DECLARED_LADDER_INCONSISTENT_WITH_BOUND_REMEASUREMENT_REQUIRED_BEFORE_ACTIVATION
Expected max drawdown objective note. The admission contract's sealed expected-maximum-drawdown objective and gate, evaluated on the current-composition drawdown study. Not the owner's bound: the bound is on realized maximum drawdown and is portfolio_max_drawdown_target.
Average pairwise correlation objective note. An objective, not a gate: the average pairwise correlation at which 14 sleeves of the quality the sealed contract measured reach 3 in-sample, which is forward 2 on the optimistic end of the measured haircut. Derived by inverting the published identity; the PSD floor at this sleeve count is -0.0769.
Implied in sample target
- At 1 5x haircut
- 3
- At 2 0x haircut
- 4
- At 3 0x haircut
- 6
Portfolio sharpe target
- 3
- 4
Portfolio sharpe target unit. IN-SAMPLE, being the band an honest forward 2 implies at the 1.5x and 2x ends of this book's own measured backtest-to-forward haircut. The headline target is the forward figure.
Backtest to forward haircut
- Measured on this book
- in-sample equal-risk ~1.04 against an honest forward of 0.3-0.9
Note. The haircut IS the uncertainty. Until the forward record is long enough to speak, every in-sample figure should be read through it, and the range is this book's own published pair rather than a convention borrowed from elsewhere.
Range
- 1.500000
- 3
What reaching it requires. At 14 sleeves of the quality the sealed contract measured (0.464 on the four-curve basis), the low end of the band (3 in-sample, 2 forward on the optimistic haircut) needs an average pairwise correlation of -0.0512 against a floor of -0.0769 (inside the floor). At the +0.00 gate exactly it needs a mean standalone Sharpe of 0.802. The distance from today's measured quality has to be bought with per-sleeve quality, genuinely negative correlation, or both; the sleeve count alone buys none of it.
Superseded admission contract objective
- Average pairwise correlation objective
- -0.030000
- Honest forward sharpe target
- 1.500000
- Minimum new sleeves
- 10
- Portfolio max drawdown statistic
- expected_maximum_drawdown
- Portfolio max drawdown target
- 0.110000
- Portfolio p95 max drawdown is gated
- no
- Portfolio p95 max drawdown must be published
- yes
- Target total sleeves
- 14
- Targets are admission evidence
- no
- Superseded on
- 2026-09-14
- Sealed by
- config/admission_v7_promotion.json
- Sealed sha256
- 6bc72c1f47675b4e14897e1ba3aad6e56aba9b5f013a7b9bae57f930e8d3b8b6
Average pairwise correlation objective note. An objective, not a gate. -0.03 is the average pairwise correlation at which fourteen sleeves of measured quality reach 2.5. Thresholds are gates and live in 'thresholds'; anything that is not enforced must not sit there wearing a gate's costume.
Backtest to forward haircut
3 further fields. Read them in the artifact.
Implied in sample target
3 further fields. Read them in the artifact.
Portfolio sharpe target
- 2.250000
- 3
Portfolio sharpe target unit. IN-SAMPLE, being the band that an honest forward 1.5 implies at the 1.5x and 2.0x ends of this book's own measured haircut. The headline target is honest_forward_sharpe_target.
Superseded in sample sharpe target
- 2
- 2.500000
Superseded reason. Stated in-sample with no haircut named, and unreachable as a forward result: a verified forward 2.0 at measured per-sleeve quality needs an average pairwise correlation of -0.062 against a PSD floor of -0.077. Withdrawn 2026-08-21 and replaced with an honest FORWARD target of 1.5, which is inside the floor at every plausible quality.
What reaching it requires. Both halves, not either: an average pairwise correlation meaningfully BELOW zero, and per-sleeve quality above roughly 0.60. At today's measured 0.469 the forward target is reachable only at a correlation near -0.030 and only on the optimistic haircut.
Why this is not a retreat. The rarer thing was never the number. A forward Sharpe near 1.5 that is genuinely verifiable -- signed forward record, every killed candidate published in full, gates that provably bite, and the arithmetic showing where the gate falls short of the target printed on the same page as the target -- is harder to find than a 2.5 nobody can check.
Why the bytes stand. The contract's bytes are sealed by config/admission_v7_promotion.json and its objective was never an admission gate (targets_are_admission_evidence is false), so the goals move without any gate moving. The superseded figures are published beside the governing ones, dated, as history.
Governance
- Stage
- taxonomy_before_returns
- Cells per family
- 6
- Family wise accounting
- yes
- Cell is independent trial
- no
- Novelty registry
- config/sleeve_family_lineage.json
- Novelty is performance evidence
- no
Return admission. prohibited until literature, PIT lineage, execution, overlap and preregistration gates pass
Summary
- Families
- 40
- Cells
- 240
- Asset groups
- 20
- Return data opened
- 0
- Return hypotheses spent
- 0
- Family return data opened
- 1
- Family return hypotheses spent
- 1
Lineage classifications
- ACTIVE FEASIBILITY
- 10
- DUPLICATE OVERLAP
- 7
- IDENTITY REDESIGN REQUIRED
- 2
- NOVEL ATLAS
- 16
- RETIRED KILLED
- 5
Lineage claim boundary. This registry governs novelty only. A NOVEL_ATLAS label means no documented identity-level match was found in the enumerated internal ledgers; it is not evidence of economic novelty, performance, or admission.
Current sleeves
Nested beyond what this page renders. Read it in the artifact.
Families
Nested beyond what this page renders. Read it in the artifact.
Cells
Nested beyond what this page renders. Read it in the artifact.
Check it yourself
Every figure above is read from /glassbox/sleeve_atlas.json, the
artifact the engine wrote.